Mini 612 Akatsuki: The End

[Claus]

I mean, what the hell, both the kill list and the ass list were empty. >:-( I think I explained quite clearly why we need to stick to the voting system.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Claus digs a tunnel towards his target. The whole area around Battousai crumbles, and he falls into Claus' trap. As Claus lands the finishing blow, he is shocked to realize that he only destroyed a shadow clone.

Battousai has blocked Claus' attack.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Kill reset.

Extract attempts reset.

Votes reset.

Its now A Quarter Past 8AM.

[Claus]

If at first you don't succeed.

Attack: Battousai

[Claus]

ATTACK: Battousai

Just in case I have to put it all in caps.

[Tom]

Claus, you continue to surprise me by always having the kill. What is up with that? I mean I know that there is a 2/7 chance that you either get it or take it from a random person, but this is getting ridiculous.

[Claus]

This is why I avoid doing dynamics based on random dice in my games.

[Tom]

Or your role lets you know who has the kill EVERY TIME!

>:O

[Claus]

dum dum DUM!!!!

(heh, I wish)

[Battousai]

blocked AGAIN!

[Battousai]

Nah not really. Sorry town, thought I had to take a risk, and I guess it cost me my game life. Also, I lied I'm not Itachi. I thought if you knew my real name it would make you even more suspicious as I didn't get why KAKASHI would be in Akatsuki.

I still feel MoS and Megatron are the best bet for scum.

[andersonw]

I was in the middle of making a post when Claus suddenly attacked Battousai, so yeah, this is just getting weird. The way I feel right now can be summed up by Tom's emoticon.

Anyways, this is what I was going to post:

battousai's quick attacking of megatron is making me second guess him, which also makes me second guess my other suspicions. Also, I wouldn't trust the flavor in an ABR game, so I don't believe that it confirms battousai at all. I still think he's marginally town though.

Thoughts and replies:
I'm a bit more confident that Claus is not a rebel, because after looking through MafiaSSK's posts, in post 157, he slightly attacks Claus.

The reasons that I found battousai town was the same reason I found farside to be town (i.e. They both seemed genuine in their actions).

I don't like his position during the Farside lynch (hey, I think she might be town... but only two days...)

For anyone who accuses me of this, I believe that this was an unconventional stance, since everyone else was attacking farside for her logic, so this could be considered as "sticking my neck out". I said that nothing could change in 2 days, because it was the truth, since everyone else seemed to be attacking farside (except for ghostwriter, who was barely posting). And for everyone, if you read some of my other games where I was town or mafia, I act the same way about being conservative in my actions.

andersonw seems constructive and pro-town, but has suddenly re-ordered his suspect list almost completely, and I can't seem to find anything to point out why.

Well, technically, I never did re-order my suspect list since I will admit to not posting most of my suspicions in the first place.

My main reason for suspecting Megatron is that he just sort of went along with the flow. Post 161 especially makes me jumpy, because he already said that he's slightly leaning towards Claus being town, but also says that "this is the second time Claus has come off a bit trigger-happy...", so he's not really taking a stance on Claus, which is pretty much like what everyone is attacking me for, except his is less "explainable", for lack of a better word.

--------------

Now, I'm probably going to have to do a re-read, because Claus is confusing me greatly. By the way,

Vote: Claus

[Claus]

Claus suddenly attacked Battousai

Not sudden. Battousai attacked Megatron without town consensus. He had to be punished. But this is a good time as ever to take a pot shot at me, no?

because Claus is confusing me greatly. By the way,

Vote: Claus

So, you're not going to wait on Batt's cardflip before voting me? Interesting...

so he's not really taking a stance on Claus, which is pretty much like what everyone is attacking me for, except his is less "explainable", for lack of a better word.

Why is Megatron being "on the wall" less explainable than you being "on the wall"?

[andersonw]

Claus suddenly attacked Battousai

Not sudden. Battousai attacked Megatron without town consensus. He had to be punished. But this is a good time as ever to take a pot shot at me, no?
That's why I also included Battousai in there

because Claus is confusing me greatly. By the way,

Vote: Claus

So, you're not going to wait on Batt's cardflip before voting me? Interesting...
I'm pretty sure his last post means he's town

so he's not really taking a stance on Claus, which is pretty much like what everyone is attacking me for, except his is less "explainable", for lack of a better word.

Why is Megatron being "on the wall" less explainable than you being "on the wall"?
Because I knew that nothing could happen in 2 days, while he's saying "maybe Claus is scum, maybe he's not, I'm not sure"

[Albert B. Rampage]

Claus uses his all-seeing eyes, and quickly spots the fleeing Battousai. He catches up with him in no time and uses his jutsu to tear him apart.

Battousai, Kakashi, Akatsuki Loyalist, killed by claus during meeting 1.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Kill reset.

Extract attempts reset.

Votes reset.

Its now Half Past 8AM.

[Megatron]

I'm beginning to think that ABR is using a random number generator for the kill, but picking numbers from 1-30. We all get one number and the rest are Claus... haha

I have to say I'm surprised Bat flipped town. More so than I was with Ash.

Also, anderson, I did take a stance on Claus, it was quite clear. I didn't think he was scum... I guess I was half right... sort of... hell, I don't know. He did get trigger happy, but I still support the system we've got in place for the vig kill over just randomly throwing it around.

I don't know how much longer that's going to work, however... votes have been reset, and Nightfall comes in less than 2 days.

I still haven't even finished my re-read (been kinda dealing with a lot of crap the last couple days) so I'll be doing that and I'll go from there.

[L]

Now lets stick to the consensus this time.

I believe I know who Tom is. Flavor would tell me Tom is a loyalist. Using the same logic and flavor that Tobi was the rebel leader.

Particularly I'm interested in andersonw's vote on Claus. I explained why Claus would make sense as a neutral.

I find it odd that Mastermind of Sin and andersonw are saying Claus is the most scummy. Mastermind of Sin's only suspicions of rebel are Claus. Who I've showed rather good reasons why he is a neutral. andersonw is voting Claus. Except when I explained Zetsu's character, andersonw as I said earlier, told me he did not know that before. Ceased suspicions of him. Now comes back with a vote.

@andersonw: In 241 you told me you did not know about Zetsu, so why are you changing your mind?

Other things that were odd was when Mastermind of Sin was getting at battousai for saying things that would make him seem like a third party/neutral. Yet was trying to vote him for that.

Also, Mastermind of Sin has said, "Megatron has strongly stated his feelings when he posted, something that scum are wary to do.."

Yet on andersonw has said, "I almost forgot he was playing. He hasn't really said much, hasn't committed to any strong positions that would stick his neck out. Playing it safe as scum, or just an inactive townie? Only time will tell."

I would think with that logic, andersonw would seem scummy for not saying much, not committing to positions, sticking to his guns.

Start with that for now.

[Mastermind of Sin]

L, you don't seem to understand that third-party roles are NOT protown. Given the fact that clever scum can easily hide behind third-party claims, it's valid to suspect them. Especially since Claus fucking

KILLED

four loyalists so far.

As for andersonw, he hadn't posted enough to be more than neutral at that time. With my top suspect dead, andersonw is bumped up to the possibly scummy list next to Claus. I could go for either one of their deaths right now, but Claus' claim is good enough to make me

Vote, Ass: andersonw

for now. I'd like to hear more out of him regarding his suspicions.

I also need to reevaluate my reads on L and Tom, because *if* there are two scum left + Claus as a neutral, there's only one scum group left that wouldn't include them (Megatron/Andersonw). Next time I reread I think I'm going to do some pairs analysis. At this point it's probably important that we all do that.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Players:

L
andersonw
Tom
Mastermind of Sin
Claus
Megatron

Possible scumpairs (for this exercise I'm going to assume we have 2 mafia left, and obviously I'm not going to analyze myself as a possible scum):

L/andersonw:

L had andersonw on his neutral list and then moved him to scummy for his vote on Claus.

andersonw called out L for pulling the win condition ploy even though he's supposed to be experienced. Puts L in the middle of his suspicion list.

Analysis: They've distanced a little bit, but not enough to make me think they couldn't be partners. The fact that they had each other in the neutral spots is a classic scum strategy.

L/Tom:

Called out GhostWriter as scum with MafiaSSK. Hasn't said much about Tom, but said he thinks Tom is town based on flavor of the role he thinks he has.

Tom wants L to explain why he asked the win condition questions if he is experienced. Lists L as one of three people who illegitimately attacked Battousai over his setup discussion. Otherwise, he's just given a summary of what L did and didn't really analyze it. Puts L tied for second on his scumdar.

Analysis: I'm wary of this scumpair if only because individually they both seem the least scummy of all the players. Interesting that L called out GW as scum but then called Tom town based on flavor alone, when I think we've established that flavor shouldn't be trusted to reveal alignment. I also think that Tom has L in a convenient position on his scumdar. There is one person ahead of L, and 2 other people tied that he can go after before having to put any real pressure on L if they are scum together.

L/Claus:

Thought Claus was town, supported the ashmite vig. Asked Claus if he had info on SleepyPanda when he killed SP. Uneasy about Claus' "I finally got scum" attitude. Believes Claus' claim, attacks anyone who thinks he might still be scum.

Claus questions L's belief that DGB's votes on farside were random. Suspicious of L for taking both sides in the farside/DGB debate and then claiming to have been less suspicious of farside after farside came up town. Later lists L as neutral because he's been a great contributer. Lists about 4-5 good points and 4-5 bad points.

Analysis: This scumpair could be very likely, because of L's automatic support of Claus' claim and Claus' gradual move of L from scummy to more protownish. It's clever to be more suspicious of someone early in the game and then fall back to make them look good.

L/Megatron:

Calls town vibes on Megatron. Likes Mega's agreement to have a majority vote, his attack on farside, and being vocal about using the vig.

Megatron gets town vibes from L for his case on SSK, and calls the game-breaking ploy a null tell, but doesn't say anything else about him.

Analysis: Definitely a scumpair possibility. They both think the other is protown and avoid saying much about each other.

andersonw/Tom:

andersonw lists Tom as protown, but hasn't really said anything else about GW/Tom.

Tom is unsure if anderson's defense of farside is good or bad. Doesn't like his wishy-washiness with Battousai. Lists anderson as tied for second on his scumdar.

Analysis: These two have kinda avoided each other, so I could see them as scumpartners.

andersonw/Claus:

andersonw wants Claus killed for the ashmite kill. Also doesn't want to rule out Claus as mafia after the neutral claim. Wants to lynch him to test the claim. Weird thing, though, is that when he made his suspicion list, he didn't actualy list Claus anywhere on it. However, he later states that he thinks Claus is not a rebel, b/c SSK attacked him slightly.

Claus didn't like anderson's defense of ashmite after the kill. Has town vibes on him, though. On reread, thinks anderson has been trying to play it safe and being opportunistic in his posting. Lists him as scummy.

Analysis: These two attacked each other too much to be scumpartners, imo. Their comments on each other seem like the genuine article. Unlikely scumpair.

andersonw/Megatron:

Supported Megatron in the alert discussion. Doesn't say anything more about Megatron until his suspicion list recently, where he lists Megatron as his top suspect. Thinks battousai is scummy for trying to quickly kill Megatron. Suspects Megatron for going "along with the flow" and fence-sitting regarding Claus.

Megatron thinks anderson is constructive and protown but doesn't understand why his suspicions suddenly changed so much. Doesn't say anything else about andersonw.

Analysis: They both haven't said much about each other, but they've also attacked each other a little bit. Could be distancing. I think it's possible they are scum together.

Tom/Claus:

Tom calls Claus an "obvious neutral", but claims he thinks Claus is still playing somewhat protown and wants to hear his thoughts. Thinks Claus' ashmite kill was "necessary to establish order". Puts Claus on the bottom of his scumlist, tied with himself.

Claus thinks GW seems ok, outside of his lurking. Applauds Tom's entrance kill. Argues with Tom over Battousai's setup discussion, but for different reasons than the others who suspected Batt. Puts Tom as his only protown person, but notes that the SSK kill was a null tell.

Analysis: I'm not sure I would trust the words of someone I believed was definitely not working towards the town's interests, but Tom seems to want Claus' input. I'm also wary of the fact that Tom ranked Claus equal with himself, as if he would be as willing to die as kill Claus, the claimed neutral. That strikes me as odd and possibly scummy. Claus has pretty much supported Tom for most of the game, so they could definitely be scumbuddies.

Tom/Megatron:

Tom doesn't have a good read on Megatron. Said a few things about him, but it's hard to interpret which parts he thought were good, and which were scummy.

Tom, can you explain this?

n) Megatron.
It is hard to get a good read on Megatron. Although he was one of those harrassing Battousai for the setup discussion, he also thought Claus was a townie -- meaning that he bought that Claus killed Pain to keep the law. Also, Megatron pushed to see SSK's "information" that would lead me to want to kill SSK pretty badly.

Lists Megatron as tied for second on his scumdar.

Megatron acknowledges that the SSK kill is a null tell, but he likes Tom's posting so far and doesn't seem to find him scummy.

Analysis: Megatron thinks Tom is town, and Tom thinks Megatron is scum. Possible bussing (especially since Tom would've already bussed MafiaSSK in this scenario) makes them slightly likely as a scumpair, but not too likely.

Claus/Megatron:

Claus got town vibes from Megatron. However, he later moved Megatron to his scummy list citing "looking for easy lynches", "early to join the farside lynch", and "ambivalent on my revenge lynch".

Megatron thinks Claus is neutral, but is afraid of being bullshitted. Supports the revenge kills b/c it polices the vig system.

Analysis: Claus is adding pressure to Megatron, and Megatron really hasn't said much about Claus. I don't think their interaction indicates a scumpair, but there isn't much to analyze.

=================================================

Note that the following does not take into account individual rankings on my scumdar.

List of scumpairs (most likely first):

Level 1: L/Claus, Tom/Claus, L/andersonw, andersonw/Megatron
Level 2: L/Megatron, andersonw/Tom, L/Tom
Level 3: Claus/Megatron
Level 4: Tom/Megatron
Level 5: andersonw/Claus

This list shows that my wariness of the protown-seeming people is right, because most of my top scumpairs have 1 person who I would have listed as protown on it. I think it's reasonable to believe that one of the scum is under the radar individually. That's why I wanted to look at people together in pairs.

I'm still happy with my vote on andersonw, since he's in 2 of the top scumpairs and one of the second level pairs, as well as being one of my top individual suspects. His death will really narrow down the suspects. If he's scum, it's not much help other than the fact that we've nabbed another scum (definitely worth it), but if he comes up town, that tells me that L or Tom is almost definitely scum, and we should be able to get rid of a scum before the town runs out of lynches/kills.

[andersonw]

@andersonw: In 241 you told me you did not know about Zetsu, so why are you changing your mind?

I'm beginning to think that this flavor can't be trustworthy, as Claus assassinated 4 pro-town people, so I really think that it's possible Claus is rebel, even with MafiaSSK attacking him (I assumed MSSK was sort of inexperienced and wouldn't attack his scum partner(s), but I'm thinking I could be wrong, given how many games he's been in).


MoS: Please respond to post 311 and I will respond to your response. And also, is the only reason you are suspecting me is because I haven't posted much?

[Mastermind of Sin]

What am I supposed to respond to in 311? None of it is even addressed to me...

[Albert B. Rampage]

Deadline strikes tomorrow.

[L]

I have finished the set-up, I believe I know who everyone is, role name and alignment. I will explain why the flavor does work in the finished set-up post. I've checked it a lot of times to verify, and tested other scenarios to check from other perspectives.

Before I post that, Lets first Note Why Claus killed those people, this list shows how each was killed and why.

farside22 was consensus assassinated by Claus.

DrippingGoofball was assassinated by ashmite84

Ashmite84 was assassinated for not following consensus by Claus.

SleepyPanda was assassinated by Claus for not following consensus.

MafiaSSK was assassinated by Tom for his lurking, etc.

Battousai was assassinated by Claus for not following consensus.
-----------------

We set a system and agreed early on that if someone would be killed it would be by a majority. We would use the vig so it doesn't go silent.

Claus did the right thing, he killed by consensus, killed people for breaking consensus. That's the only argument I'm seeing against Claus right now, and it's very weak, so much so it's scummy as hell.

The deadline is tomorrow so I will post my findings later today.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Mod, what time does the deadline hit?