Mini 612 Akatsuki: The End

[Albert B. Rampage]

Deadline Extension In Effect.

New Deadline Hits on Canada Day.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Thanks, Mod.

[Megatron]

Canada Day is July 1, for those who had no idea (I had to wiki it )

[Mastermind of Sin]

Umm, it says the date in the title of the thread? LoL

[andersonw]

What am I supposed to respond to in 311? None of it is even addressed to me...

Pretend that it's my defense and respond to it that way, I guess.

Mod:

I will be at summer camp for 2 weeks starting tomorrow, so I will need a temporary replacement, unfortunately

[Albert B. Rampage]

You tell me this now ?

[andersonw]

I forgot? And I thought it started was the week after it actually started until a few days ago.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I was in the middle of making a post when Claus suddenly attacked Battousai, so yeah, this is just getting weird. The way I feel right now can be summed up by Tom's emoticon.

Anyways, this is what I was going to post:

battousai's quick attacking of megatron is making me second guess him, which also makes me second guess my other suspicions. Also, I wouldn't trust the flavor in an ABR game, so I don't believe that it confirms battousai at all. I still think he's marginally town though.

I already addressed this.

Thoughts and replies:
I'm a bit more confident that Claus is not a rebel, because after looking through MafiaSSK's posts, in post 157, he slightly attacks Claus.

I already addressed this, too.

The reasons that I found battousai town was the same reason I found farside to be town (i.e. They both seemed genuine in their actions).

I don't like his position during the Farside lynch (hey, I think she might be town... but only two days...)

For anyone who accuses me of this, I believe that this was an unconventional stance, since everyone else was attacking farside for her logic, so this could be considered as "sticking my neck out". I said that nothing could change in 2 days, because it was the truth, since everyone else seemed to be attacking farside (except for ghostwriter, who was barely posting). And for everyone, if you read some of my other games where I was town or mafia, I act the same way about being conservative in my actions.

I'm not quite sure what the point of this section is. It's very unclear.

andersonw seems constructive and pro-town, but has suddenly re-ordered his suspect list almost completely, and I can't seem to find anything to point out why.

Well, technically, I never did re-order my suspect list since I will admit to not posting most of my suspicions in the first place.

I never had a problem with this.

My main reason for suspecting Megatron is that he just sort of went along with the flow. Post 161 especially makes me jumpy, because he already said that he's slightly leaning towards Claus being town, but also says that "this is the second time Claus has come off a bit trigger-happy...", so he's not really taking a stance on Claus, which is pretty much like what everyone is attacking me for, except his is less "explainable", for lack of a better word.

I agree with this somewhat, but I stand by my earlier Megatron remarks.

--------------

Now, I'm probably going to have to do a re-read, because Claus is confusing me greatly. By the way,

Vote: Claus

Why?

[andersonw]

Could you link to the posts where you addressed them? Looking over quickly, I can't seem to find it.

I'm not quite sure what the point of this section is. It's very unclear.

Basically, I'm saying that people are attacking me for being conservative about my feelings and such, but me saying farside was town-like was very different from the general opinion at that time.
Also, you are attacking me for saying "nothing can happen in 2 days", but that's the truth, since I doubted at that time that half of the people would go vote to assassinate someone else.

[Mastermind of Sin]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 17#1127017

[andersonw]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 17#1127017

For the second thing (I think Claus is leaning towards neutral), you didn't respond to it, you just stated it, but whatever, I've changed my mind about that.
Also, please respond to 333.

Since the deadline is soon, I'm thinking Claus is the best lynch for now because a) He's confirmed not-town and b) He managed to hit 4 townies with the revenge shot. Assuming there are 3 mafia, the probability of hitting all 4 town at the times he used the kill, if he chose randomly, is 20/99. That's pretty low, and including the fact that Claus is experienced and has a good scumdar, would bring the probability even lower (since he would be better at finding mafia).

[Albert B. Rampage]

Battousai replaces andersonw.

[Tom]

welcome back Battousai =/

awkwarrrd

[Mastermind of Sin]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 17#1127017

For the second thing (I think Claus is leaning towards neutral), you didn't respond to it, you just stated it, but whatever, I've changed my mind about that.
Also, please respond to 333.

In the morning.

Since the deadline is soon, I'm thinking Claus is the best lynch for now because a) He's confirmed not-town and b) He managed to hit 4 townies with the revenge shot. Assuming there are 3 mafia, the probability of hitting all 4 town at the times he used the kill, if he chose randomly, is 20/99. That's pretty low, and including the fact that Claus is experienced and has a good scumdar, would bring the probability even lower (since he would be better at finding mafia).

Why would Claus, a claimed neutral, go out of his way to find scum with his kills? If all he had to do was kill three people, why would he bother searching for mafia at the time? You're acting like the fact that he hit 4 townies is evidence that he is more likely scum than neutral, when it wouldn't make any sense for a neutral role such as Claus's claim to act any different...

[Megatron]

Battousai replaces andersonw.

LOL, great, guess I've got more "let's ninja kill megatron with no dicussion" fun coming up.

Anyway, V/LA until monday (not sure if that's even long enough to really count for V/LA, but yeah)

[Battousai]

Now that I'm back in, I'll try it again this time. Nah just kidding Megatron. I'm playing strictly as Anderson would without consideration to my own win condition, which may or may not be the same (saying this to make sure it is clear that I'm necro'ing in fairly).

Mos: How do you know Claus is going out of his way to kill scum? So far all of his kills were loyalist who were acting scummy. Your right a neutral wouldn't act differently, but that doesn't mean he couldn't be scum.

I've been thinking, if we mislynch today we lose (if there's 2 scum it's 4 v 2). I say we do a no lynch to narrow down the field. What does everyone else think?

Unvote,Vote

: No Lynch

[Tom]

I dont understand what you mean by narrowing down the field.

[Battousai]

Statistically, if we vote no lynch there will be a better chance of lynching a rebel. Tomorrow, from the point of each loyalist, there will be a 50% of finding scum or 25% if there is only 1.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Mos: How do you know Claus is going out of his way to kill scum? So far all of his kills were loyalist who were acting scummy. Your right a neutral wouldn't act differently, but that doesn't mean he couldn't be scum.

Umm, did you not notice the fact that Claus is second on my scum-list, after yourself? I'm not trying to say Claus can't be scum. However, I'm not going to allow people to conclude that he's scum off faulty logic, not would I allow that to happen to anyone else. Claus' supposed objective was to survive long enough to kill 3 people. If he's going to find people easy to attack and get away with killing them, chances are those people will be town, not to mention that probability itself points to him hitting town all three times. The original argument itself is faulty, because statistically he would not hit scum with ANY of his kills.

I've been thinking, if we mislynch today we lose (if there's 2 scum it's 4 v 2). I say we do a no lynch to narrow down the field. What does everyone else think?

Unvote,Vote

: No Lynch

That's assuming there will be only one death tonight. On that matter, even, I'm not even sure what would happen after a lynch, because of the way the rest of the game is constructed.

Mod: What happens after we lynch?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Meeting ends. You re-arrange your alerts. New meeting begins.

[Battousai]

Well with the current setup, we believe there are 3 factions- loyalists, rebels, and a neutral. I doubt there will be more than 3 rebels so the chance of a rebel being vig'd is considerably less than a loyalist. So I conclude that the rebels will not have more than 1 kill to balance the game. Also, I doubt there are more third party roles that can kill. The current supposed setup is 3 rebels, 1 neutral, and 8 loyalists. Adding a SK or the likes would unbalance the game for the loyalists as 5 people will have different win conditions than the 7 loyalists. I doubt that there is another third party player. Furthermore, I will have to reread the rules to figure out what happens after lynch concerning the vig skill to make sure this works.

[Albert B. Rampage]

The person with the vig kill keeps it, but the countdown is still in effect and continues in the next meeting.

[Mastermind of Sin]

So no lynching would leave us with the same number of people...we need to lynch if we want those numbers.

[Battousai]

How do you know the rebel's don't have a kill of their own? So we must lynch in case the rebels use the vig kill as well.

Well here's all who are alive, I'll be playing as myself right now, because this is lylo, deadline will hit before anderson gets back, and I don't feel claus is the best bet for a rebel.

Could we get everyone to post a list, then lynch (or possibly vig if a loyalist has the kill and we are too many votes short at deadline) whoever is the most scummy to all of us? I give this a 3 point scale 3 for the scummiest person, 2 for second, and 1 for third.

Myself/AndersonW- not rebel
Megatron- very possible to be a rebel
Tom- low chance of being a rebel
L- very low chance of being a rebel
Claus- medium chance of being a rebel
Mastermind of Sin- very possible to be a rebel

i.e. Megatron (3) and MoS (3) most likely scum on my list, followed by Claus (1)

[Battousai]

EBWOP:

UNVOTE