Mini 612 Akatsuki: The End

[L]

I'm willing to lynch either battousai (andersonw) or Mastermind of Sin.

[Mastermind of Sin]

How do you know the rebel's don't have a kill of their own? So we must lynch in case the rebels use the vig kill as well.

Well here's all who are alive, I'll be playing as myself right now, because this is lylo, deadline will hit before anderson gets back, and I don't feel claus is the best bet for a rebel.

Could we get everyone to post a list, then lynch (or possibly vig if a loyalist has the kill and we are too many votes short at deadline) whoever is the most scummy to all of us? I give this a 3 point scale 3 for the scummiest person, 2 for second, and 1 for third.

Myself/AndersonW- not rebel
Megatron- very possible to be a rebel
Tom- low chance of being a rebel
L- very low chance of being a rebel
Claus- medium chance of being a rebel
Mastermind of Sin- very possible to be a rebel

i.e. Megatron (3) and MoS (3) most likely scum on my list, followed by Claus (1)

I wish I could believe that you have any reason for this other than the fact that we attacked the old you for something that was very much

your

fault...but I don't.

[Battousai]

You didn't give your list MoS. Also, now that I know this role combined with the fact I don't find L or Tom very scummy leaves only you, megatron and claus which I knocked claus down for his claimed third party role (seems to fit).

L- Which one do you feel is the most scummy?

[L]

Mastermind of Sin.

[Mastermind of Sin]

You haven't been reading very much, have you...

[Claus]

Sorry about the delay. I'll be posting something in short notice

[Claus]

Vote Count:

Andersonw 1 - Mastermind of Sin

Not Voting

Battousai_2, Claus, Megatron, L, Tom

(edited)

[Mastermind of Sin]

You mean L, not T?

[Claus]

Ok, here is the short version:

Vote: Batt_2/Andersonw

- tries to push for a quicklynch on me, for very weak reasons
- Extremely scummy 311
- ambivalent on his farside position
- barely pushed for an SSK kill. ("ass SSK for obvious reasons")

I see anderson_w paired with Megatron or L, and Megatron paired with MOS. I see a weak link between L and MOS

Of These, Andersonw is far more scummy.

Details are below.

=========

Questions:

- L, why do you think Megatron is a loyalist? You said it once, then never mentioned it again.
- L, what is your case on MoS? I have looked through your posts, and the only time I see you directly accuse him is on post 17, where you say that he is ambivalent on Anderson_w when he should be accusing him.

- bonus: do you think Anderson and MOS are a scumpair, or do you think they are an "either one or the other" case of scum?


Tom:
- Please come back and post! I want to hear more from you.

MOS:
- I put my questions to you along with your post analysis.

=========

Megatron

- 275: Attacks MOS for being "Overdefensive". This is the third time Megatron is attacking someone for weak reasons (after farside and batt_1).

- 296: "I'm doing a whole lot more toward the scumhunting than you are."
I _REALLY_ don't like this post as a whole. He attacks Battousai heavily, and try to stand at a higher ground... except that I don't remember what is all this scumhunting Megatron has tried to do.

I find it strange that the Town seems to be focusing on Anderson_w/MOS, and letting Megatron slide. I'm afraid Batt_1's attack on Mega has given him a "townie aura" that he didn't deserve.

MOS

293 -

He's committed to bad positions that were proved wrong, but he stuck by them while they seemed correct.

How is that pro-town?

319 - Pair analysis:

While I think this is a good way to go analyzing this game in these last few days, I find some of your choices strange:

> You list me in a lot of your possibly scummy pairs. But in the same post you say you believe my claim. Can you explain this?

> The Tom/L and Tom/Claus pairing seems desperate. What exactly do you see as scummy in Tom? It seems to me you want to keep him "in the game" as far as lynch targets go for as long as possible, while I see him as pretty pro-town. Do you have a case against Tom?

Anderson_w/Battousai:

- First, anderson kind of dissappears in the myst between my last analysis and the Batt kill. Then he reappears with 311, which I have already commented:

> Votes me for "killing a townie" before that townie is cardflipped (This is a BIG red flag)
> Accuses Megatron for not taking a position on me while he has been going back and forth with his opinion of me for the whole game.
> Says that I'm not a rebel and votes me on the SAME POST.

- Then this is his answer to my questioning about his position on farside:

so this could be considered as

"sticking my neck out"

. I said that

nothing could change in 2 days, because it was the truth

, since everyone else seemed to be attacking farside

So, anderson_w would "stick his neck out" just enough to go on record saying he thinks farside is pro-town, but not enough to try to save her?

I don't buy it.

2 days is PLENTY of time to save someone. Guardian changed a lynch from Near to Coron in 10 HOURS before the deadline (see mini 578, pages 22-28). What it looks to me is that he was satisfied with the farside myslinch, and wanted to gain some towncred from it at the same time.

- Then he tries to push for my lynch with this "wonderful" post:

Since the deadline is soon,

Except that, as Albert has said, lynching does not push the kill deadline back - those are two different clocks. Way to try and push the town into a quick lynch.

b) He managed to hit 4 townies with the revenge shot. Assuming there are 3 mafia, the probability of hitting all 4 town at the times he used the kill, if he chose randomly, is 20/99.

Notice the contradiction here. I did not kill randomly. I killed Batt and Ash for breaking the lynch rules, and I killed Farside because it was the town's majority. So you cannot compare those kills with random kills.

Also, notice how he is pushing the farside kill, which was a consensus kill, into my sole hands.

That's pretty low, and including the fact that Claus is experienced and has a good scumdar

And let's finish this with a good dose of "proficiency burden" shall we?


=========

I'll post a corrected vote count later.

[Mastermind of Sin]

MOS

293 -

He's committed to bad positions that were proved wrong, but he stuck by them while they seemed correct.

How is that pro-town?

1) Some of his positions were disproven by information that was not readily available or obvious at the time, so he couldn't be expected to have known they were bad positions.
2) It shows that he's willing to stick to his word when he believes he's right, instead of flip-flopping as the opportunities arise. Scum are less likely to do that, I think.

319 - Pair analysis:

While I think this is a good way to go analyzing this game in these last few days, I find some of your choices strange:

> You list me in a lot of your possibly scummy pairs. But in the same post you say you believe my claim. Can you explain this?

I said I believed your claim? If I did, I don't remember doing it. I believe my position regarding your claim was that it seems to make sense (as L has been adamant to point out), but it could easily be clever bullshit as well. I also listed you on my somewhat scummy list last time I did an individual scumdar.

> The Tom/L and Tom/Claus pairing seems desperate. What exactly do you see as scummy in Tom? It seems to me you want to keep him "in the game" as far as lynch targets go for as long as possible, while I see him as pretty pro-town. Do you have a case against Tom?

Individually, I don't find Tom that scummy (besides questions that I asked of him in my pair-wise analysis). But I also said the same thing about L. With the people currently alive, that leaves me with only 3 possibilities. Unless I'm willing to believe that 2 of Megatron, Claus, and andersonw are DEFINITELY scum, I need to accept the possibility that one of the scum is playing *well* (not that surprising), and that I didn't catch them yet. So I looked for pair-wise interactions that could indicate a scumgroup, and found several interactions that could indicate Tom-scum. So I'm currently torn between my innocent read on him individually and the possibility that he's scum with someone else. Either way, he's not on the top of my lynch/assassination list, because I still find him less likely than most people.

[L]

- L

, why do you think Megatron is a loyalist? You said it once, then never mentioned it again.

Megatron was the first I believe to get on farside22 for the weird "alert" post. His thought on the revenge-kill policy he said he couldn't argue against it saying that it would keep people to using a majority. Agreed to majority use kill so it doesn't go silent. Only lynch if the one with the vig didn't use it. Said what Ashmite84 did will just lead to more WIFOM, so there wasn't a reason to really discuss why he did what he did. Defended himself pretty well against battousai v1's attempt at his life.

Also I think I know who he is when battousai attacked him and he blocked. From all the thinking and microsoft word manipulations, I've concluded flavor-wise as well that I don't see Megatron's character as being a rebel.

Regarding Battousai's attack on Megatron itself, and people that individually attack people they find to be a rebel:

I don't think it matters if you're "so" sure someone is scum. If you're "so" sure then you should be able to make a case on that person to see if majority agrees with you or not.

- L

, what is your case on MoS? I have looked through your posts, and the only time I see you directly accuse him is on post 17, where you say that he is ambivalent on Anderson_w when he should be accusing him.

Part of the reasoning is the applicants of Claus is bad for killing four loyalists. Mastermind of Sin ignored why Claus killed them, and my post explaining why Claus killed them which equates to a weak case. The same post I believe was ignored.

andersonw was neutral on mastermind of sin's list, so Claus was 'scummier'. Battousai v1 flipped town, and now that means andersonw is "bumped up" the list as Mastermind of Sin said. Even though I don't believe andersonw said anything new that would cause that aside the weak-vote on Claus. Instead of voting Claus, Mastermind of Sin votes andersonw. That doesn't make sense with Mastermind of Sin's list.

Which said Claus was scummier, and andersonw was a neutral, Mastermind of Sin even mentioned not remembering andersonw was playing. Quotes below.

"Neutral -

andersonw - I almost forgot he was playing. He hasn't really said much,

hasn't committed to any strong positions that would stick his neck out.

Playing it safe as scum, or just an inactive townie? Only time will tell.

Megatron - Believe it or not, I think Megatron is probably town, and I'm not happy with the kill attempt on him.

Megatron has strongly stated his feelings when he posted, something that scum are wary to do

"

andersonw is neutral, for not saying much, not committing strongly to positions. The ending bugs me, "Playing it safe as scum or just an inactive townie? Only time will tell." Time will tell? But that's not the point. Note why Megatron is "probably town" to Mastermind of Sin. He's strongly stating his feelings when he posts. Something scum are wary to do. Like andersonw?

-

bonus: do you think Anderson and MOS are a scumpair, or do you think they are an "either one or the other" case of scum?

Yes, I believe they're a scum-pair. It doesn't seem they're able to get at other people, so they're voting each other. Besides both of them being the scummiest post-wise. Flavor would dictate to me, after checking and re-checking, taking a coffee break and checking again that they're the last akatsuki pair. Deviating knowledge of who I am, the dead are, and those alive who have had flavor disclosed.

I just remembered, I find Battousai's "What if the rebels have a kill?" idea oddly suspicious. No where does it say or suggest that rebels have a kill they make between meetings. The weird "lynching for numbers" thing, didn't make sense to me either.

[Mastermind of Sin]

- L

, what is your case on MoS? I have looked through your posts, and the only time I see you directly accuse him is on post 17, where you say that he is ambivalent on Anderson_w when he should be accusing him.

Part of the reasoning is the applicants of Claus is bad for killing four loyalists. Mastermind of Sin ignored why Claus killed them, and my post explaining why Claus killed them which equates to a weak case. The same post I believe was ignored.

Did you ignore the part where I agreed with the reason for killing them? If I *really* thought Claus had completely bad reasoning to kill 4 loyalists, do you think there is any way he would NOT be on the top of my scumlist by a mile?

andersonw was neutral on mastermind of sin's list, so Claus was 'scummier'. Battousai v1 flipped town, and now that means andersonw is "bumped up" the list as Mastermind of Sin said. Even though I don't believe andersonw said anything new that would cause that aside the weak-vote on Claus. Instead of voting Claus, Mastermind of Sin votes andersonw. That doesn't make sense with Mastermind of Sin's list.

anderson moved up based on process of elimination. With battousai, my top suspect, flipping town, anderson's previous actions made him a little more likely to be scum. Claus still has benefit of the doubt because of his claim, so he's not my #1 suspect.

Which said Claus was scummier, and andersonw was a neutral, Mastermind of Sin even mentioned not remembering andersonw was playing. Quotes below.

"Neutral -

andersonw - I almost forgot he was playing. He hasn't really said much,

hasn't committed to any strong positions that would stick his neck out.

Playing it safe as scum, or just an inactive townie? Only time will tell.

Megatron - Believe it or not, I think Megatron is probably town, and I'm not happy with the kill attempt on him.

Megatron has strongly stated his feelings when he posted, something that scum are wary to do

"

andersonw is neutral, for not saying much, not committing strongly to positions. The ending bugs me, "Playing it safe as scum or just an inactive townie? Only time will tell." Time will tell? But that's not the point. Note why Megatron is "probably town" to Mastermind of Sin. He's strongly stating his feelings when he posts. Something scum are wary to do. Like andersonw?

Uhh, yes? I'm not sure what your point is here. andersonw has not stuck his neck out on anything so far, and so I felt he could be scum playing it safe...that's why he's on my scumlist...it sounds here like you're agreeing with me L, but this is supposed to be your case about why I am scum...can you explain how this makes me scum?

-

bonus: do you think Anderson and MOS are a scumpair, or do you think they are an "either one or the other" case of scum?

Yes, I believe they're a scum-pair. It doesn't seem they're able to get at other people, so they're voting each other. Besides both of them being the scummiest post-wise. Flavor would dictate to me, after checking and re-checking, taking a coffee break and checking again that they're the last akatsuki pair. Deviating knowledge of who I am, the dead are, and those alive who have had flavor disclosed.

I don't know who my character's partner is in the manga. I'm too lazy to look it up...

I just remembered, I find Battousai's "What if the rebels have a kill?" idea oddly suspicious. No where does it say or suggest that rebels have a kill they make between meetings. The weird "lynching for numbers" thing, didn't make sense to me either.

exactly.

[Tom]

Tom doesn't have a good read on Megatron. Said a few things about him, but it's hard to interpret which parts he thought were good, and which were scummy.

Tom, can you explain this?

n) Megatron.
It is hard to get a good read on Megatron. Although he was one of those harrassing Battousai for the setup discussion, he also thought Claus was a townie -- meaning that he bought that Claus killed Pain to keep the law. Also, Megatron pushed to see SSK's "information" that would lead me to want to kill SSK pretty badly.

I thought Megatron's accusations of Battousai1 were scummy because they were just about his setup discussion and nothing else, which was a source of flak that Battousai had to deal with that I have considered illegitimate from the beginning. The fact that Megatron thought Claus was townie is a nulltell for me, but I did want to mention it in case someone had a differing opinion. Megatron's pushing of SSK is a bit pro town and his vote on SSK was one that made up the majority that I acted on when killing SSK.

I hope that explains it, MoS?

Im going to write up some more stuff later today.

[Battousai]

Claus-

Since the deadline is soon,

Except that, as Albert has said, lynching does not push the kill deadline back - those are two different clocks. Way to try and push the town into a quick lynch.

Let's look at that quote in detail and not the short part Claus took out.

Since the deadline is soon, I'm thinking Claus is the best lynch for now because a) He's confirmed not-town and b) He managed to hit 4 townies with the revenge shot. Assuming there are 3 mafia, the probability of hitting all 4 town at the times he used the kill, if he chose randomly, is 20/99. That's pretty low, and including the fact that Claus is experienced and has a good scumdar, would bring the probability even lower (since he would be better at finding mafia).

It looks like Andersonw was stating the deadline for lynch was soon, and it was since he posted this the 27th. What part in that entire quote did you see Andersonw as trying to quick lynch 4 days before deadline? I really don't see your point other than to try and make Andersonw look scummier. Which you really don't need to do as you have some good points already on Andersonw.


MOS- In the actual Akatsuki, the only real parter was Kisame and Sasuke's older brother. But we all know that the flavor isn't all there as Battousai v1 was Kakashi, very anti-akatuski but was not a rebel.

Exactly? I don't like the fact that you quote other people's posts and say things like Exactly or don't go into much detail. Why do you feel the same way as L?

Also, concerning L's post about you. I think he meant he found it suspicious that you would say Megatron and Anderson are neutrals for opposite reasons. That's how I read it as.


L- In what game of mafia have you played in where the scum did NOT have a NK? Now with this set up I'm not sure if there is one, but I felt there's still a chance that there is, thus a no lynch would cost us the game. The lynching for numbers, I think I know what you are talking about. It's a deadline lynching tool I sometimes use (see newbie 580 or something in my profile, it's the one with mizzy in it.) I use it to sum up how everyone feels and then the points will tell us who the majority feels is scummiest among us. Right now MoS has 6, Megatron 3, Myself 5 (taken from your post, claus's, and myself).

I better put my vote up there, which will change as soon as everyone posts their list, if they do.

Vote: MoS

[Albert B. Rampage]

Deadline tomorrow.

[Mastermind of Sin]

MOS- In the actual Akatsuki, the only real parter was Kisame and Sasuke's older brother. But we all know that the flavor isn't all there as Battousai v1 was Kakashi, very anti-akatuski but was not a rebel.

Which is why I don't like to rely on flavor to tell me who is town and who isn't...

Exactly? I don't like the fact that you quote other people's posts and say things like Exactly or don't go into much detail. Why do you feel the same way as L?

Uhh, try...because it's what I've been saying all along? I didn't go into detail because I'd already explained my position before L even agreed with me on it.

Also, concerning L's post about you. I think he meant he found it suspicious that you would say Megatron and Anderson are neutrals for opposite reasons. That's how I read it as.

That's not what I was doing, though. anderson's lack of contact and unwillingness to stick his neck out were

scumtells

against him. However, i didn't have anything ELSE to hold against him, so my initial position was to wait and see how things progressed before I could get more than a neutral read. Megatron's willingness to commit to a position was a

towntell

for me, so it balanced out his other actions to make me think he was more likely town at that time.

Does that make sense to you, L?

[Battousai]

Uhh, try...because it's what I've been saying all along? I didn't go into detail because I'd already explained my position before L even agreed with me on it.

Well could you at least explain it again or tell me what post it was in, because I can't find anything that states that when I said what if the rebels have a kill you found it odd or the lynghing for numbers not making sense. The only thing I found was

I wish I could believe that you have any reason for this other than the fact that we attacked the old you for something that was very much your fault...but I don't.

Which was basically, I discredit anything you say that implicates me or Megatron as scum.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Uhh, try...because it's what I've been saying all along? I didn't go into detail because I'd already explained my position before L even agreed with me on it.

Well could you at least explain it again or tell me what post it was in, because I can't find anything that states that when I said what if the rebels have a kill you found it odd or the lynghing for numbers not making sense. The only thing I found was[

I've been thinking, if we mislynch today we lose (if there's 2 scum it's 4 v 2). I say we do a no lynch to narrow down the field. What does everyone else think?

Unvote,Vote

: No Lynch

That's assuming there will be only one death tonight. On that matter, even, I'm not even sure what would happen after a lynch, because of the way the rest of the game is constructed.

Mod: What happens after we lynch?

So no lynching would leave us with the same number of people...we need to lynch if we want those numbers.

I wish I could believe that you have any reason for this other than the fact that we attacked the old you for something that was very much your fault...but I don't.

Which was basically, I discredit anything you say that implicates me or Megatron as scum.

Umm, hardly. That's a very misleading interpretation. You called me scum without ever actually presenting any reasoning to support your claim. If you had, I wouldn't have been forced to conclude that it was an OMGUS vote.

[Battousai]

I'm sorry if we aren't on the same wavelength MoS, but you have confused me.

The second quote in your last post, I read it as you saying it is possible that there will be more than 1 kill after the meeting (rebel have a killing power). Yet you say exactly to L's post that states that rebels having a killing power is "oddly suspicious".

Then the third quote doesn't saying anything about the "lynching for numbers", but I can't gather what you mean by that sentence. Do you mean if we don't lynch, then the next meeting everyone will be alive, or that only 1 person will be dead?

Then the last quote. I narrowed the field on who is and isn't scum. I thought that L and Tom were the least likely, to me, to be scum. That leaves 3 other people, 1 of which is a claimed third party which knocks him down a bit, leaving the 2 other people (who I kept at the same level I gave them a 3 and Claus a 1). Then your answer seems to stem that it's an OMGUS because there is no other reason (besides the one I gave) for me to think you're scum.

[L]

Mastermind of Sin - "Did you ignore the part where I agreed with the reason for killing them?"

No, I did not see you say you agreed, I didn't see anything referencing that post. Would you kindly show me where you agreed?

Better reasoning for andersonw though.

When I first read that, it felt odd to say Megatron did something good, but andersonw did the opposite that you'd put andersonw as possible scummy or something. Yes it makes more sense now, not sure why you asked me in a reply to battousai.

Ironic that it takes less then the time it took you to post to find out, not that it matters. I'm rather sure of who everyone is.

Battousai: All except Zetsu had a partner.

"L- In what game of mafia have you played in where the scum did NOT have a NK?"

A few. Not that it matters, the flavor of this game clearly details the ways people are killed. Either by lynch or by vig. There is no night kill. To me that feels like you're trying to do some "stupid town" ploy by questioning there being a nightkill when there clearly is not.

Vote: Battousai

That should be three votes, we're at L-1. Megatron should be back today to post.

[Megatron]

Not much has changed.

L-
Currently most consistent player in game. I hope you're not scum, if you are we may be screwed.

Batt2-
Replaced andersonw, very inoffensive player who did some odd stuff. A good example is post 311, where he "sort of" attacks me, mentions how he's more confident that Claus is not a rebel... then votes for Claus. Eh?

Then soon after replacing comes in and votes No Lynch, to "narrow down the field". Thing is, let's say there WAS a nightkill (even though we know there's not). and we didn't lynch today - you know what that leaves? LYLO. So even though your conjecture is mistaken, it's STILL scummy.

Tom-
Still not certain. When he first replaced I thought I had him caught in a really scummy lie. Turned out to be a misread on my part. Otherwise has seemed pro-town. I think I may be looking too hard at him, because that SSK kill just seems too convenient.

MoS-
With how vocal he is, an actual breakdown would take quite a while. Not as high on my scumdar as he was before the re-read.

Claus-
Not sure how much discussion is due here. I still believe his claim.

vote: Batt2

[Albert B. Rampage]

Unfortunately the deadline has already passed. You may send me your re-allocations before the second meeting begins.

[Albert B. Rampage]

LETS GEEEEEOOOOOOOWWWW.

[Claus]

Hmmm. Ok, did anything change between the end of last meeting and the beginning of this one?

If not...

Vote: Battousai_2

[L]

As I said, there is no nightkill in this set-up.

Vote: Battousai_2