Mini 642: Bodyguard 7: (Game Over)

[CallMeLiam]

vote: jonathantan86

Numbers in your screen name eh?

[CallMeLiam]

I will type out my reasonings if you guys need me to.

Please.

[CallMeLiam]

A spot of really qu

i

ck thinking tells

m

e that if

the

cop

investigates the bodyguard night one, then the win is no longer guaranteed. I know it's unlikely but just wanted to throw it out there.

As such, while I'm in favour of the plan in theory, I don't think we should all be beholden to it.

[CallMeLiam]

Jonathan: instead of just saying you were waiting for an answer to your question before you decided, you chose to make no mention of it. Was there a reason for this?

Yes, I did not want to give out too information just in case you were scum.

What was it that convinced you BaB wasn't scum, or convinced you enough to drop your guard?

[CallMeLiam]

A spot of really quick thinking tells me that if the cop investigates the bodyguard night one, then the win is no longer guaranteed. I know it's unlikely but just wanted to throw it out there.

Either you're scum, or you're making a heinous error. Considering that I

specifically

said earlier that:

If we lynched a scum day 1, then we automatically win if both the cop and bodyguard claim.

Also realize that the percentages I worked out don't take into account scum-hunting and cop results over n1.

meaning that the cop could literally not investigate anyone and we'd still win automatically.

I have to assume that you're scum trying to mislead the town.

unvote: CallMeLiam
vote: CallMeLiam

If the percentages don't take something into account, then I assumed that taking them into account might change the result. It was also nothing more than a quick think and having made it clear that I wanted to see your working I think it's clear that I don't 100% understand or agree with it.

[CallMeLiam]

CML, what was your working? The percentages won't change because the probability of winning is 100% already and both scum-hunting and cop investigations can only increase that number. (All this is assuming both power roles survive, of course.)

I honestly don't remember my exact train of thought there, it wasn't much though.

[CallMeLiam]

unvote, vote: Alabaska J

Votes for players that are 'too townie' I do not like.

As for BaB's strategy and math (not helped by the use of some tiny text btw) it looks solid enough. I'd rather not rely on it and scumhunt as much as possible first, but it's nice to know we're at a slight tactical advantage. I'm not too happy that you explained what the the best play for the mafia is re: the maths of the counterclaim but I suppose it wouldn't have been too hard for scum to work out with all the other info in front of them.

[CallMeLiam]

What about my vote for you? Nothing to say about that?

Well you explained why you did it, you then behaved consistently with your motivation by unvoting after a reaction appeared and it didn't start a cushy bandwagon so I didn't think it needed too much comment.

I'm a bit iffy on the whole 'asking a random person to claim' thing, because maths or no I don't like people claiming outside of a mass claim or near-lynch situation. For now, I'm waiting on a pick-up in posting from the quieter players (this includes me, I know and I'm sorry but busy few days) so I can find a stronger tell than what I found from Alabaska.

[CallMeLiam]

I have to say Jonathan, the bussing Slaine Hayes thing looks very weak to me. I'm very wary of people using low activity as a reason for suspicion.
Of course it's entirely possible that BaB is scum and throwing all this up to make himself look very townie, but that's not the vibe I'm getting.

AS for the power role fishing thing, I can see why it might look like fishing (he does talk about power an awful lot) but aside from considering whether or not a random claim would be helpful he hasn't really looked like he wants anyone to say anything.

Even dropping hints could be disastrous for power in this game, so I really hope the bodyguard keeps quiet.

[CallMeLiam]

EBWOP: and the cop also of course.

[CallMeLiam]

Said it wasn't for too townie, blatant misrepresentation is a great D1 scumtell.

unvote, vote: CallMeLiam

You say you're not using too townie, but that's exactly what it looks like.
You can say your vote's not OMGUS but once again that's what it looks like.

[CallMeLiam]

Sorry, it is not too townie if you have legit vibes. Some of what he has said just seems off.

Also, how is my vote OMGUS? You blatantly misrepresented me.

Your first action after reading the thread was a vote on me with minimal commentary and no discussion of other events. Like I said, you can say that it ain't...

[CallMeLiam]

If you haven't noticed, we are on page

5

. When I posted we were on like three. Not much had happened, and the only person with a chance to give me vibes was BandB. Then you popped in…

OK, so even if you hadn't seen anything on the proceeding page of chatter your case against BaB still amounts to 'too townie' with vibes. Since you decided not to say where the vibe came from then your case amounts to 'too townie'. Saying it isn't does not make that so.
The fact that you've been pretty much ignoring TDC's contribution to this debate while going after me like a rabid dog doesn't do much to help your 'not omgus' case too. My main concern here is that you're shouting down my points without backing up your statements, and that's not how I see townies acting.

[CallMeLiam]

I'm here. I'll read up this evening and throw in a real post. Sorry guys.

[CallMeLiam]

Um. . . no. Pro-town powerroles ought to attempt to hunt scum like everyone else. Having noncontributing powerroles is an excellent way to get powerroles outed.

This. Lurking and playing quiet as a power role is a great way to show everyone you're a power role.

There are tactics like "hunting for reactions" that townies rather than power roles should use.

I rarely like hunting for reactions as a townie play anyway, but fair point.

As for the BaB\TSN thing: I honestly don't think scum would put themselves knowingly at the centre of discussion so early and so strongly that early in the game. I agree that it hasn't helped us out much in terms of scum huting, but it has provided a lot of postage that we can weed through as and when people starting pinging scumdars a lot more.

Speaking of which, Killa: is there any chance you'll furnish us with some opinions soon?

[CallMeLiam]

Are you saying TSN put himself in the center of discussion? (Yes or no answer, please).

I'm saying you did, not TSN.

Also, what you said is

very anti-town

. Please NEVER AGAIN mention if you think someone is townie again. Do not say any things that make someone pro-town until after the mass-claim. Thank you very much. Please tell me if you don't understand.

I understand where you're coming from, but disagree.

Secondly, that's just wrong. I always put myself in the center of discussion regardless of whether I'm scum or not. What you're saying here is complete WIFOM. What were you trying to accomplish by saying this?

I am trying to say that I don't expect scum to put themselves in the centre of the game. If in fact your logic was skewed to help scum you'd have to know that someone would see it, and if it helped the town then I don't think scum would be eager to make their lives harder.
I also think that it's better for scum to slip out of the limelight because when your every post is being analysed then the less posts you can get away with the better. The trick is to lurk without seeming to and that's very hard to master or to seemingly help the town but actually steer them wrong and this requires a very keen analytical mind which not everyone has.

[CallMeLiam]

CML. It's a simple question.

what were you trying to accomplish by saying this?

TSN seemed to be suspicious of you, and I was explaining why I wasn't.

You wanna know a good way to lurk without getting caught? Discuss the strategy of lurking without actually scum-hunting. Oh wait a second...

FOS: CML

At the moment the player I think is scummiest is MIA from the thread with a concussion so I'm just trying to keep my head in the game until he returns. Killa's lack of action isn't something I feel compelled to label as scummy yet, but it's not helpful.

[CallMeLiam]

[Talking about BaB]
I honestly don't think scum would put themselves knowingly at the centre of discussion so early and so strongly that early in the game.

The trick is to lurk without seeming to and that's very hard to master or to seemingly help the town but actually steer them wrong and this requires a very keen analytical mind which not everyone has.

How have you come to the conclusion that BaB does not have this "keen analytical mind"?

I have not come to any such conclusion. BaB's logic is solid and if he is misleading us with his statistics I can't see it.

[CallMeLiam]

unvote, vote: killa seven

This lurking is getting silly now.

[CallMeLiam]

unvote, vote: killa seven

This lurking is getting silly now.

A lurker lynch?

Are you serious

K7 is nowhere close to being lynched, and if a wagon started forming I'd hop right off it but I would like to put some pressure on him.

[CallMeLiam]

unvote

Crap. Didn't realise we were that close to a lynch. Take back what I said about being nowhere close.

[CallMeLiam]

The best what Alabaska?

[CallMeLiam]

Hmm...I see that many people disagree with me that it is possible to distinguish between power roles and townies by certain conversation.

I agree with you here, but I don't think it's the kinda thing we oughta be discussing in-thread.

Here's what I think: the scum wouldn't have thought of that if BaB hadn't said it :/

Agree with this. BaB's attitude toward not saying folks are pro-town looks like it fits with his 'logical' playstyle but ina game with as much pschology as mafia it doesn't really work that way.

I think this is another example of BaB taking a minor issue and blowing it out of proportion to make him appear like the keeper of the pro-town flame.

I was gonna come down pretty hard on this because it looked like more of the 'too townie' thing, but I flicked through the thread and I see what you mean here. I'm not sure I buy it as scum as opposed to over eager tonwnieness, but I do see where the case is now.

Alabaska J:

How come you wanna lynch BaB but still advocate following his plan?

BaB

: TWAS-PVATRIAHTVJWBICTSHJWRTAMRTJPOC??

[CallMeLiam]

jonathan is noob town.

I'm actually feeling K7 more than BaB right now. The way BaB has defended himself recently makes me feel like he is misguided town.

unvote, vote: K7

Does anyone explain there votes anymore?

K7, why do you think the vote's on you?

[CallMeLiam]

Killa7 PBPA:

Says Hi.

Confirms that he is still in the game after not posting since he joined.

Defends TSPN by saying he always looks scummy.

I'm paraphrasing, but this looks like you're admitting you haven't been playing the game up until this point. To your (slight) credit though, you don't immediately hop onto the wagon.

Defends his point about defending TSPN

Asks for an explanation re: his vote

Requests PBPA

In short, you've done nothing since you came into the game short of leaving a dangling random vote. We're playing this game with six players because of you, and having as much as said you haven't been paying attention at all it makes me wonder why you joined and if you're not actively lurking this hard because you know we can't risk mislynching just because you're a lurker.

[CallMeLiam]

EBWOP: Or just what TDC said.

I'll ask again though: why do you think people are voting for you. What's their motivation and what case

do you think they might have

.

[CallMeLiam]

Can you humour me and explain the meta? I'm kinda tempted to hammer but I'd like to know more.

[CallMeLiam]

I'm kinda tempted to hammer but I'd like to know more.

holy batman!

Are you serious right now? Were you really tempted to hammer? Did some part of you actually want to write a vote against killa right now?

If I

reeeaally

wanted to hammer I would do, but frankly his behaviour and attitude aren't helping. He's at L-1 now and he's making no effort to contribute, do you not find that a little disconcerting?

[CallMeLiam]

No, I mean unsettling. It's pretty clearly very anti-town and while it does seem to be his playstyle from what TSPN and AJ have said, I think the fact that they're both voting him regardless of this is a little telling.
Are you ready to explain the initials yet?

[CallMeLiam]

No, I mean unsettling. It's pretty clearly very anti-town and while it does seem to be his playstyle from what TSPN and AJ have said, I think the fact that they're both voting him regardless of this is a little telling.

According to the above vote count TSPN isn't voting him.

Oops, my bad. My point remains though, although it's only half as valid. A player with past experience of K7's 'lurky' style has found reason to vote for him, and I'd like to know what it is.

[CallMeLiam]

OK.

Killa, you're still at L-1 and no closer to mountign a defense. Can I ask you why you've been lurking so hard?

Jonathantan: Do you think Killa's lurking is scummy or just not helpful? I'm wary of the size of the setup and I really don't want to mislynch today so I'd rather have a better reason to lynch someone than just inactivity.

BaB: I think I agree with Alabaska here re: Jon being noob town. All this looks more like carefulness than fence sitting.

[CallMeLiam]

BaB, I can't remember the number of the game in particular, but I have seen it.

K7, could you please go into your reasons for the vote if only to get BaB to explain his code.

[CallMeLiam]

vote: BaB

I think it's time to make that post you initialised earlier.

[CallMeLiam]

Since I have no idea what the post is, it looks like encoded information and for all I know a message to a scum partner. I'd like to keep my vote on you until it's resolved because I don't like it hanging over the game.

[CallMeLiam]

Mod: Did K7 ask for a replacement?

No, I mistakenly thought he went 72 hours without posting for the third time this gameday.

[CallMeLiam]

BaB, you made a bullshit case to see who'd hop onto the wagon? Or to see how a player would react to it?

[CallMeLiam]

*you voted

without

a case to

[CallMeLiam]

Sorry, should have told you personally I'd be v\la.

OK. I think k7 is acting pretty unhelpfully, but not in a very scummy way.
I think BaB has been helpful and logical enough to put me off him as scum. That leaves TDC who I've agreed with every word from and TSPN who I have no real read on, even at this point although I did like his scummy\anti-town differences post. This leaves jonathanathanatan. I'm not gonna vote yet but the case is the best I think we have and I'd like a claim now please.

[CallMeLiam]

I'm most suspicious of TSPN and k7 at that moment, although CML's claim request does raise some suspicion.

You are at L-1, I am considering voting for you. Would you prefer I hammered without getting a claim first?

BaB? Care to explain the hand?

[CallMeLiam]

I think it looked a lot like back peddling to me. It looked like trying to absolve himself of responsibility for a lynch.

unvote

for now, while I re-read jonatanathan and BaB interactions.

[CallMeLiam]

OK, so my initial vote on BaB was for that silly acronym from earlier. Now I'm not gonna unvote because I think he's scum.
He's been highly critical of people's play, and often espouses game a playstyle that seems fairly harmful to the town. Keeping information to ourselves will only help the scum, and now he's once again allowing himself to lurk quietly while he forumlates a big post, meaning we can't possibly lynch him until he does. His actions when I wanted a jonathanatan claim were also highly suspicious, not removing his vote until called out on his backtracking and hypocrisy.
I know he's not everyone's #1 candidate right now, but I think he'd be a good lynch at this point.

[CallMeLiam]

Scummy things he did and why I think CML is scum:

1) he tried to get us to abandon my plan:

As such, while I'm in favour of the plan in theory, I don't think we should all be beholden to it.

This doesn't look to me like I want to abandon the plan. It looks like I want to stay with it but not be beholden to it.

This was anti-town because my strategy guarantees a huge increase in win percentage for the town. Unfortunately my whole strategy is gone now since I found this scum fake-claiming and we will probably have to have the real cop claim eventually (but not yet).

I really dislike the way you're presenting your plan as the only way for the town to play this game. You shout down anyone questioning it, and do the same when people have different ideas about how to play the game. I'll get to that later. Oh, and nice pre-fishing at the end there.

Also, what you said is

very anti-town

. Please NEVER AGAIN mention if you think someone is townie again. Do not say any things that make someone pro-town until after the mass-claim. Thank you very much. Please tell me if you don't understand.

I understand where you're coming from, but disagree.

it really helps the scum if they know who everyone else thinks is pro-town, especially in this game, especially if someone says one of the scum.
He's trying to get people to be okay with saying who they think is a townie. BAD IDEA!

Once again, I disagree. In a game this small and with only two power roles scum aren't gonna be going for the 'most townie' players. In fact like the majority of games of mafia in a game like this I'd expect scum to be trying to off power roles. Plus I'm fairly sure that by listing the people we find scummy, the scum can work out who we think is townie by a simple process of elimination. No what I think you're opposed to is the idea that if we all have an idea of who the town thinks is pro-town then that really narrows the people you can try and force a mis-lynch on.

He votes for killa7 and then unvotes shortly after on 177 after alabaska says a lurker lynch is bad. Killa wasn't close to a lynch. Sure he was at L-1, but does anybody here think killa was going to be hammered anytime soon?

Seriously, this is over-careful. He also makes a PBPA on killa which is totally unnecessary.

L-1 is close to the hammer when you're not sure if the scum are already on a wagon. I

really

don't like how you treat L-1 as a safe spot for any player to be at up until it's jon that's in danger of the hammer. The PBPA on killa was at the request of killa. It helps if you don't just read my posts in isolation as that makes your case make no sense.

5) omg,

then there’s infamous post 302

.
Let’s look at every single scummy thing crammed into this one post.

OK. I think k7 is acting pretty unhelpfully, but not in a very scummy way.
I think BaB has been helpful and logical enough to put me off him as scum. That leaves TDC who I've agreed with every word from and TSPN who I have no real read on, even at this point although I did like his scummy\anti-town differences post. This leaves jonathanathanatan. I'm not gonna vote yet but the case is the best I think we have and I'd like a claim now please.

What’s with all the 180s? He’s voting for me despite saying I’m not scum. He then recently says he’s certain I’m scum. These complete contradictions are the act of a scum caught in trouble.

So I voted you immediately after saying you weren't scum, or did things occur between those times?

He then only is ready to lynch jonathan by process of elimination? What!? That’s not pro-town at all? What about me saying that I wasn’t ready for a lynch the

page before this one!

Again, he’s confidant in attacking Jonathan because Jonny is at L-1. More opportune behavior. (similar like his vote on killa).

Saying you're not ready for a lynch and then leaving your vote on a player at L-1 are pretty incompatible actions. The fact that you STILL didn't remove it when I said I'd be happy hammering until your hypocrisy was pointed out does not bode well for your alignment.

Then he ASKS FOR A CLAIM!!!
WHY WHY WHY WHY!
There is absolutely no pro-town reason for that. Especially for the cop. The only thing that can happen from a premature claim is going to narrow down the possibilities of Nks for scum, or force a counterclaim (therefore making CML the NK, or his bodyguard the NK). The cop loses the most from a premature claim. This is not compatible with his cop claiming.

Players at L-1 are typically asked to claim. Would you rather I just hammer?
Indeed weren't you the one who said it might actually help the town to get a claim in today? Claiming recuces the chances of a mislynch and as I've said before that's a far bigger danger than confirming townies. Indeed, having confirmed or semi-confirmed players in an end-game is a nightmare for scum.

6)

The way he breadcrumbed is really scummy and not how A cop would do it.

After I saw this post I thought CML was a townie trying to draw the NK, but then I realized that he actually breadcrumbed cop. I think CML is scum and his slips were fabricated and not the breadcrumbing the cop should do.

So you've seen a player crumbing cop and think that the best thing to do is to announce it to the whole thread, denounce them as scum and then throw up a ramshackle case against them? Reeeaaaly pro-town there BaB.
"Not how a cop would do it" is so blatantly untrue I shouldn't even need to get into it. Your refusal to accept other people's game theory and desire to adhere rigidly to your plan is scummy as hell. You're trying to guide the town and it reeks of scumminess. Your case against me is simply 'he doesn't play like I would' and your own actions have been hyopcritical and shady. Like my vote on you very much.

[CallMeLiam]

It was deliberately an obvious crumb, as was the 'slip' in posts 96 and 97.
The thing is, you're talking like the scum are the only people looking for the cop. It's in the Bodyguard's best interests to find the cop and protect him too.
In a game this small, keeping the cop protected to get even a single investigation could be game breaking if we go into a second day with only three townies. Keeping the cop alive should be priority number one.

[CallMeLiam]

At no point have I had any intention of openly claiming cop.

[CallMeLiam]

My main aim was getting the scum's attention, rather than that of the BG. Getting both would be fine but my main aim was keeping the cop alive through at least one night.
I'd hoped that the scum wouldn't have been ballsy enough to out my crumbs in the thread and instead just NK'd me before any investigations could be made. Frankly the idea that they'd try and lynch a player hinting that strongly at being the cop was off my radar.

[CallMeLiam]

Ah, so you're claiming Vanilla now.

I'm flat out not claiming.

[CallMeLiam]

Sure,
but after CML explains claiming cop.

I already spent this page explaining why I crumbed, and I never claimed cop. Since you're not gonna do it:

vote: jonathantan86

TSPN: I've been crumbing to throw a little WIFOM for the scum. I hadn't planned on being outed day one, but rather D2 if I lasted the night. I certainly never planned on claiming cop, that's for sure.
Let's see what my crumbing achieved then...

[CallMeLiam]

Also, I believe that the bodyguard should not protect anyone. I believe this because I don't think CML is the cop. End of story.

Oh, and ALabaska, thanks for making sure I'll be alive tomorrow to share my abbreviations.

I believe directing the bodyguard in-thread is not helpful for the town.

[CallMeLiam]

Shit I missed that. BaB, what

does

that mean?

[CallMeLiam]

Oh I get it. Because AJ wants to lynch you tomorrow, you think that means the scum won't wanna NK you.

[CallMeLiam]

I disagree. Like I said when it came out, I never planned on claiming cop. Much like BaB's seeming joy over being killed, I wanted to draw the NK and make any scum have to think really hard about counterclaiming. I mean would you try and counter a cop who'd been crumbing since his third or fourth post, and so blatantly too.
I didn't start crumbing until after BaB posted his plan and made it clear to me how important the cop actually was. The bodyguard's only real purpose was to keep the cop alive since at this point he's just trading his life for another vanilla, so drawing his attention as well as the scum would have been fine too. If the scum kill him after targeting me, then that (I figured) would make them think they were on the right track with me and they'd go after me N2. Two nights for the cop would be pretty solid ground for the town D3. Unlike BaB though, I didn't wanna draw focus to the plan because it wasn't gonna work if some idiot dragged it out in the open.

[CallMeLiam]

CML: Why the hasty hammer yesterday?

BaB was doing his damnedest to crap all over my plan. He'd said he was gonna hammer once I'd explained but since I didn't wanna totally abandon it and claim vanilla (thus giving the scum a better chance of hitting our cop) and that jon had been on my scum list anyway I thought I'd just get it over with.
Clearly it was the wrong choice, and I should have done what I did last time and asked jon for a claim.

[CallMeLiam]

No he can't, because I never actually flat out stated it. I crumbed it early on (one of BaB's posts has the explanation) but like I said, it was just to try and draw the NK.
TSPN has a good point though:

vote: TSPN

one of us is more than likely scum.

[CallMeLiam]

Me?

[CallMeLiam]

Clearly I'm vanilla

[CallMeLiam]

Go TDC

[CallMeLiam]

vote: CML

[CallMeLiam]

Well. I'm not sure what the hell happened to TSN there. Dang.