Mafia 78: Meta Breaking Mafia 1 - Game over!

[Skruffs]

What the fudge kind of shingles is this granola.

[Skruffs]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

Hmm.. that's a good point. Very good actually. So Peg + MM it is. Or Peg + Tar.

Again, where's the overlap?

Hmm... Unless it's you + peg of course. Sorry, spoke too soon.

which is impossible given the conflicting cop claims.

First things first, why would PEG know that shaft.ed is town?

[Skruffs]

Okay, my guess based on THIS page is that it is Tarhalindur and Surye. Apparently me and Surye are claimed masons now, and of course we don't know each other's alignment,s and apparently one of us has to be scum so she is trying to pusht hat is is me. Tarhalindur's pushing of Surye's suggestion of a paranoid day cop miller(?) reeks of two scums working with each other.

Who hs claimed cops, and what are their results on who?

Tar throwing a vote out basaed on their confidence ina nother player based on gut, while aso believeing that player for other reasons, is very suspicious. If one of mye and surye has to be scum, it has to be surye, but I'd like to see how we canme to that conclusion first. As ti stands (And I've read nothing) Surye trying to say I have to be scum and not entertaining other ideas suggests scum aiming for a mislynch. I'm not saying both copes are fake claiming but her assuming one of them is and trying to work with that (And that the other is not fake claiming) suggests she knows that one of them is telling the truth.

Can we have a sum up?

[Skruffs]

Why are you saying that it's an assumption that there rae two scum left, when you were just saying that (I think) there were two scum left?

Again, I will read, but I'd like to see a run down of the claimed cops claimed results. Presumably everyone has mass claimed, right?

[Skruffs]

Mod:

You have TS's role, "Doc", listed, but not her alignment. All other player's alignments are listed. Is this a mod error or intentional? If you can't answer that, can you please say you can't answer that?[/b]

I will do my own sum up since nobody else seems willing to give me that.
In the meanwhile though, for those saying that one setup is likely over another:

The focus of the game is the setup and the players.

How interesting the players are is up to you... As for the setup:

This qualifies as a normal game... but a bit off from Normal games you might have played in the past:

I agree with some of the recent threads in mafia discussion that players expect too much from mods nowadays. Players expect cop, doc, some mafia goons, one godfather, no duplicate roles, always an investigative role, always a protective role.... and I want to mod some games that break away from that pattern.

This game will have (mostly) roles you have seen before, but all expectations you have about role combinations should go out the window.

MM's claimed results:

Day 1: Investigated CoolBot , got guilty, Pro-Town

Day 2: Investigated Tar, got guilty (Still Alive)

Day 3: Investigated PEG/Me, got guilty (Still Alive)

Day 4: Investigated Surye, got guilty (Still Alive)

Day 5: Hasn't Targetted yet.

I think my role is more likely to be insane than paranoid because I believe Tar and PEG to be town. Hopefully my investigation for today can result in a not mafia/innocent.

Well, we have two options. If there is a godfather (Or more than one godfather), I have been told that GodFathers always come back as innocent no matter who targets them. Inasmuch, that should mean that targetting one would give Stark an innocent and would therefore confirm that player as scum, even if he is paranoid. The only player that hasn't been targetted is Shaft.ed, correct? Might as well target him.


I really don't like Surye "False dichotomy" that she is refusing to answer to, instead asking me questions like asking if I Think there are two factions when I have clearly stated that I would like to know what's going on.

So we've gone in a circle, and we're still at pretty much we have a scum mason, and a scum "cop". Tar has built a pretty convincing case on MM, and MM's only saving grace has been his breadcrumbing, but something's still not right with him.

Thank you, Guardian.

The two possible situations which lead me to say 99.9% sure that MM is scum: paranoid daycop miller (good call, Surye!) and framer + other mafia power (framer scum mason or framer godfather; unlikely but possible)

In other news, shaft.ed just cleared himself of being the lynch for today as if he was paired scum he would have just won the game. If he is scum (which is now a rather low possibility) then he has to be the only member of his faction, in which case we deal with him tomorrow.

I'm pretty sure that the scum are the players formerly known as MM and pickem, Surye possible but somewhat unlikely (his Rosso PBPA looked fairly legit on my last read, and my gut tells me Surye isn't the kind of player who's likely to bus that heavily). I'm rereading now to check my conclusions.

Unvote, Vote: Machiavellian Mafia

because I know that vote is safe.

#1: You outguess the mod as a reason to vote MM, even thought he setup is intentionally Bastard Moddy. I say that it is bastard MDody because there is an FBI agent who presumably hunts down serial killers and a vig who has to kill everynight, making him, flavor wise, an SK-miller until he is lynched.


I'm still waiting for you to respond as to why you think Surye isn't the kind of player to bus that heavily. You haven't posted since I asked. Also, what about her post on Rosso was legit? And why only on Rosso, did she not PBPA any other players? Did you base your opinion on her not being the bussing type on other games? In Dynamite Mafia, she had Yosarian2 at the top of her suspicion list. Her initial reason of him for being scum was that he was bussing me(town), which was something that she herself was doing. Later on, when Skitzer talked about beign suspicious of her, she said "Where is your strong case against me? I think Yos and CES are much more interesting, and I'm not sure what you're playing at. "


Deflection onto a scum partner = bussing.

When she struck a light, it was "supposedly" to take out Skitzer or Yosarian2. Bussing. She talks about Yos panicking but I do not see her actually say why Yos is scummy. As kuribo put it in that game, "Don't look at ME, we're bandwagoning Yos!", which was exactly what she did; deflect attention from herself onto ascumbuddy.

In realistic mafia, where SUrye was town, she did not use false dichotomies "One of A/B is scum" and was much more cautious in her antics. Scum Surye is more likley to bluff than town Surye. SUrye in this game is not being cautious.


Looking at Tar's claim, all I have really uncovered is:

I'm a Cop (sanity currently unknown). I investigated ABR N1 (because he's ABR); despite ABR's death, I found that he was specifically not a member of the Mafia (so I'm either Sane or Naive, and I can apparently only find Mafia). This suggests to me that there is a second scumgroup in the game; if so, Gorrad is almost certainly the SK.

I think I know what should be done here. We keep myself, Gorrad, and Xtoxm alive today. Tonight, Gorrad targets Xtoxm. If Xtoxm comes up scum, Gorrad is mostly clear; if Gorrad kills a different player or if Xtoxm is an FBI Agent, Gorrad gets lynched tomorrow (or left alive for a bit if I survive with a guilty).

As for who should be lynched at deadline... my best candidate is shaft.ed. After my reread here, his play looks much, much more like his play in Open 57 and House Mafia (where he was scum) than his play in Mini 492 and Mini 495 (where he was town). Note the short posts, Mafia theory, and lack of long analysis posts - coming from shaft.ed, that's remarkably scummy.

Hmm....

I need to analyze this post and compare it to what was publicly known about the roles he is directing here.



So the investigations were:
ABR (innocent)
Shaft.ed (innocent)
Toaster Strudel (innocent)
MM (guilty)


If the deadline is near, I'd like an extension. It's a big game and a lot of thought process that has to go into cracking it.

[Skruffs]

Vote: Gorrad

Lets not lose sight. I know that we have a couple things to do today, but I'm getting this ball rolling.

Quick question for Tar, is there any reason to believe you are definitely not naive? You might have said you got a guilty, but I don't remember.

Quite the opposite: I'm assuming I am Naive until proven otherwise.

Surviving innocents: Toaster Strudel (should NOT have investigated her in retrospect), shaft.ed

MM, would you mind investigating Surye? If there's a scum in the Masons (which I consider increasingly probable), he's probably it.

I want the results of MM's daycop before we head into night. No vote for now for exactly that reason.

Any reason you'd pick me over PEG?

Now that Mini 547 has been abandoned... because PEG is playing to his town meta (I killed him for playing the exact same way he's played here as scum in 547).

TS: Yes, I did investigate you after your claim, for the exact same reason that I investigated ABR after his claim: I didn't see the claim.

I fully expect to be lynched tomorrow for that mistake, too.

Note: pretty sure the last scum is Surye or shaft.ed, MM being third choice. Pickem is unlikely to be scum, Gorrad is not Mafia but has to be lynched, TS is confirmed innocent.

[Skruffs]

Hello.
Well I believe I have been set up the bomb. If shat.ed doesn't hammer me then I will explain why Surye should be his vote, when he does. That she voted me from the get go means that she knows Shaft.ed isn't scum, but unless he's a godfather, he can't be scum anyways, I think, correct?

Surye is attacking PEG of lurking to endgame even though I pointed out how he doesn't do that as scum very much (I think I did), and she said I "wouldn't" vote Stark, even though I never said I wouldn't; I was trying to catch up on the game that I never really wanted to replace into but did so as a favor for Guardian. I am not caught up. His (yes, his, sorry) hammer on Stark was made at his first oppurtunity, even though in the post before he apparently had questions he wanted me to answer. He hammered because he felt that I would be an easy lynch the next day. That is not the reaason that I want shaft.ed to vote him, though.

I will lay out "THE CASE" against Surye and why his foolhardy recklessness (if it doesn't cost us the game with a shaft.ed hammer) is going to lead to his downfall. I have the next three days off after working about nine days straight, so I will have the baility to catch up and help win this.

[Skruffs]

My PM says that me and surye are masons, and that we don't know the other's alignment, loosely translated. No, it does not say that Surye is definitely town. There is a link to a thread. I can talk about hte thread if you want, Surye's first post to it is mostly about making an elaborate code to be used to confirm one as the other's partner if the other one dies. On a scale of 0-100%, there is no indication in the PM that surye is anything, so you would have to look at other games frequency of mason-mafiates to determine the percentage.

Reading through now.

[Skruffs]

Okay.
First, you are asking me to explain PEG's meta on Adel, which I can't do. The only game I played in with ADel, she got herself instantly lynched in a nightless game (Open 19). PEG's defense is based on his own experience with Adel, and is not based on his experience with Surye at all.

Sureye officially 'ended' the random vote stage by voting Adel, because Adel voted someone for not random voting. This is an iffy vote, because while it supposedly indicates that Surye is suspicious, there is no reasoning behind it, so he can change his vote later on.
Even though Adel accumulated another vote right after that, he joke-votes Surye in response, completely ignoring the 'call out' on his vote on Camisade.

we figured out that you are scum. Me and ecto and PEG share a brain, and we always share alignment.

This might have been a multilayered breadcrumb for later on in the game; if PEG had gone after Surye or expressed suspicon of him, they could have killed PEG and Adel would have the option of saying he was masons with PEG. On the other hand, if Adel was lynched early, it makes it more likely that ecto (the vig) and PEG (the other mason) are more suspicious.

Continuing on: (Reading as I type through, so expect my train of thought to change as I read more and more)

Immediately after this, Adel posts a nonsense quote from Bladerunner. Surye's response?

I've seen things you wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.

I don't know how I could vote for someone who randomly quotes Blade Runner. But some how I will pull through.

Basically Surye voted Adel for acting scummy "as a warning", Adel responded with nonsense, Surye laughs, and then (My guess is) both will 'move on' and forget about it.

Adel pushes more nonsense, Guardian says "Spam", and Surye initiates a new line of thought with:

we figured out that you are scum. Me and ecto and PEG share a brain, and we always share alignment.

Interesting that PEG is associated with a group here, when his vote lies on ABR currently.

Albert[3] (pickemgenius, Elias_the_thief, CoolBot)

This was from the vote count immediately before.

PEG says "STFU", his only response to Adel's breadcrumbing, which is unfortunately ignorant of him. Surye moves on with:

Meta-history and spam seem to be dominating this game.

Time to get down to business, anyone see anything particularly suspicious so far in the game? All I have been able to see is the PEG/Adel/Ecto (as that one was thrown in my face ) and the ABR/PEG connection. Both of these are probably useless.

See? He calls Adel out, allows Adel to make a bunch of gibberish, then moves attention elsewhere. Also, he is pushing the idea that PEG is scum, with Adel (because Adel breadcrumbed it) as well as the ABR/PEG thing (Which I don't get hte reference of). What's interesting is that Surye's vote is currently on Adel but he completely dismisses Adel's 'gibberish' response to being called out and instead takes Adel's cue and tries to get focus on PEG.

Later on:

FoS: Ecto

for being too scummy to be scum.

And now Surye has reasonlessly 'warning' voted Adel, and then pushed attention on BOTH of hte players that Adel claimed to be in a group with. Why? Because if Adel gets lynched (Or NK'd as turns to be the case), Surye has a breadcrumb trail to pick back up to push against Ecto and to a later degree PEG.

Ecto then gets belligerent and Surye pushes suspicion onto him, calling him OMGUSSing him in return. This is interesting because Adel chimes in again:

I call him out, and he responds by just saying he'll vote for me, I thought that was OMGUS. Perhaps I misunderstand, but I'm not sure why else he would say he'd vote me without saying anything else as to why.

actual sequence of events:
1. you voted for me
2. i voted for you
3. ecto voted for you
...
you call OMGUS on Ecto.

does not compute,
advise quicklynch of Surye under LAL

Surye's response:

(repeated quote)

FoS: Ecto

for being too scummy to be scum.

I find it really convenient you left this out of your sequence, since that immediately preceded his call to vote me.

And to justify what I was saying, he's "playing" at having control of this game, that we'll lynch who he wants us to. I found this really suspicious as it allows him to say things with the fall-back of joking.

Deflects attention away from himself onto Ecto (without accusing Adel), while still having hsi vote on Adel. Adel and Surye banter, And adel pulls off hte gibberish mask to point out Surye's flaw:

you didn't call OMGUS on me.

he voted you

BEFORE

you placed a FOS on him.

I normally harass a player I am unfamiliar with in the beginning of a game to get a read, and the read I'm getting off of you is scummy as hell. I expect you see you lynched within a few pages.

Surye's Response:

he voted you

BEFORE

you placed a FOS on him.

Hmm, so you're right, I forgot the vote order since up till now it was mostly non-sense voting, and when he said his vote was on me, for some reason I was thinking he was

threatening

a vote on me.

I don't see how it's scummy as hell though. If his first vote was from the random voting stage, and after I FoS him, he solidifies it into a real vote, I still stand by my OMGUS. If it's not, then that means he actually meant something by his first vote on my, and that sets you and Ecto as having an agenda.

Either way, Ecto is implicated, so I think I'm on the right track, and the way you are responding makes me really suspicious of you.

Again, pushing attention away from himself onto Ectomancer, and even though he is voting Adel and is saying that Adel is acting scummy, he implicates Adel only through the lynching of Ectomancer; basically trying to set up a situation where Ecto will be lynched, come up town, and therefore alleviate Surye's need to be suspicious of Adel.

now

that

is OMGUS.

I do have an agenda: lynching you today. You are my target, and as many of the other players in this game know, I usually get my way on day 1. Any last words?

AT this point, Adel is doing damage control by distancing as much as he can from Surye; Surye is failing to launch, voting without actually being suspicious, claiming suspicion but not pushing a case, etc. Adel is trying to make it less likely that if *either* of them die, the other will look better.

Rosso voices his complaint, tries to change the subject (Why? BEcause two of his partners were voting each other)

(Incidentally shaft.ed, you sided with Adel against Surye)

I agree with Adel. I also found Surye to be trying to hard to look proactive before this broke.

unvote vote: Surye

Would any of the other eleven people signed up for this game like to post?

Yes, I try to provoke discussion, I don't see what's wrong with that. It worked as usual, and as usual, it attracted a lot of attention to me, but if you read what I am saying, you'd see Ecto and Adel are
acting very odd.

And @Adel, how is you defending ecto's OMGUS (you've cleared it up, that's what it was) not suspicious?

Surye defends himself to shaft.ed (he doesn't bother with Adel since he's scum with them)

Later:

Well damn, I hope I'm not lynched for ignorance of their play style, I've just been trying to get the conversation away from game histories and on some scumhunting.

As someone else pointed out, Surye was at L-5. So why the defensiveness and furlornness? Did he think Adel was telling him to bend over and take getting lynched (Adel's posts seem to hint as much)? Did he feel abandoned by his partners (Rosso was not defending either side, again) and was melancholy? No scum wants to be bussed by their own partners day one. When asked why he was being fatalistic:

Because Adel seemed serious about it, and everyone who has posted seems to agree. But looking at it again, that's not that many,

I guess I started feeling a snowball growing behind me for no reason.

Guess I'm getting ahead of myself. But if this is just their play style, then I am not sure what I have for this game yet.

A snowball being started for no reason? That's... that's something that

SCUM

does?! So why wouldn't Surye go after Adel?? The answer may surprise you!! (or it won't)

Adel calls it out for Surye: "*yawn* typical paranoid scum "

Even after seeing no reason behind the wagon on him AND at Adel's goading, Surye focusses on Ectomancer, but otherwise hides with his 'defeated' tail between his legs.

MM pipes in:

I do not like Surye's progression of actions either, he's by far the scummiest player in the game now.

Unvote, Vote: Surye

He puts Surye at -1.

ON TO PAGE SIX!

Unvote, vote Machiavellian-Mafia

putting players at -1 with no warning or explanation ? You sir, need to be lynched.

since when are you against quicklynches?

fos: ABR

Surye's most likely scumbuddy!

Adel hoping to capitalize on the Surye wagon by tying her to townies.
Sury econtinues with "Woe, why am at -1? Was I really that bad? Le sigh."

I didn't even vote anyone once the game got more serious.

How is that even close to anti-town?

Unvote, Vote:Adel

There, we're out of the random voting stage.

trying to revise history

Heh, You think the game was getting serious there?

Ahh! So Surye's vote on Adel wasn't 'serious' at all... it really was just a random vote. So the ignoring of Adel through the next two pages or so in favor of Ecto, who Adel claimed to be in a hgroup with (Jokingly but still a trail) makes more sense.

Even though Adel is being the most obnoviously obvious about trying to get Surye lynched, Surye continues to play nice to Adel, offering no counter inquisition, even recanting the previous distancing that he had done earlier in the game as "Just playing". (post 134)

After ABR (RBer) starts defending Surye (ABR says he is sure Surye is town, but he has no way in game to know this), he even says that if Adel thinks he is scum, to vote him instead.

Adel does so. After Ecto changes focus to MM, Adel agrees as well. Surye, similarly, unvotes Surye and votes Coolbot. He ignores MM, who almost got him lynched. Why? Surye wasn't worried about being quicklynched, as Rosso had already expressed disinterest in going after Surye OR Adel. He acknowledges that MM was scummy, but goes after Coolbot for trying ot get him to claim. Adel immediately moves back to Surye. (PErhaps thinking MM would be more valuable to the team)

Page 7:
Surye again defers to Adel, asking what was wrong. Adel says that Surye is scum, and Surye retorts that Adel didn't answer his question. (WHERE IS THE SUSPICION?! WHERE ARE THE VOTES?!)

Coolbot has begun to earnestly gain votes at this point for trying to get Adel to post. Surye says that sinec two people have unvoted, there's no reason to claim.

FOS: COOL

not feeling a surye lynch.


that is all. Be back in like 48 pages.

Note that even though Cool's pushing for him to claim is potentially threatening PEG's livelihood by outing him as a mason, he is not voting COol. Instead he calmly weighs in. (And as you can see, PEG lurks).

MM weighs in: He was only putting Surye at L-2, not L-1 (which Adel had pointed out earlier.) Pushes attention on the townie defending his scum partner as well as the townie trying to get his scumpartner to claim.

Ecto and ADel both jump on Coolbot.

Ecto tries to convince Rosso to put Coolbot at L-2, and PEG (Me) jumps in to correct him: He actually put hima t L-1 (Not productive for scum to say)

Interesting, while I am appreciative of ABR having my back, I find it interesting that you completely ignored him in your analysis, when he's the one that actively derailed the bandwagon, and began pointing out CoolBot's behavior.

Wow! And yet Surye has been doing this all game, to someone who was *ACTUALLY* attacking *HIM*.

Rosso calls Adel scum, Adel responds with:

people in glass houses, something something, shouldn't throw axes at people stirring the pot, or else a kettle will call you back.

Important to note:

Rosso Carne disliked it when Adel and Surye were fighting, but when Coolbot had a wagon, he perked up and wanted to be interested in it, but needed someone else to give him a reason for it.

I have lost my steam since page 13, and was hoping to finish at least day one.

I really think that you, SHaft.ed, should read pages 3-10, at least ,to see how hte players interacted with each other.

Vote: Surye

as shaft.ed has not hammered me. IE if he's s cum, he can win at any point he wants. But Surye and Adel's interactions day one, and rosso and MM's reactions to that vs coolbot and aBR, indicate that Surye is scum. (Unless you think the entire mafia team deliberately picked one player to quasi bus/defend/distance/et), which rosso is not interested in games enough to do.

[Skruffs]

Totally messed up above.
EBWOP:

So I really need to devote more time to this game.

Can we bandwagon Surye already?

so.... still not seeing where this is a good idea...

proven scum that started the wagon jumped off for no good reason when it got serious? How is that not good enough reason?

unvote, vote: surye

]b]Adel often does that to townies as scum.[/b] I've been scum with Adel, so i'm 90% positive Surye isn't scum. Seriously, this wagon is useless, and there are no reasons for it...

So given the not so confirmed nature of your masonhood, why do you think PEG would say this?

I already answered this question, but went ahead and bolded the part in PEG's response where he explains his reasoning. Let me put it to you this way, though; if PEG was scum, it would not benefit him to defend his mason buddy early in the day. PEG paid hardly any attention to this game (Which he never does), and you need to look at the game in context: What was going on when PEG said that? I'm assuming it's at the beginning of day two, after Adel showed up as scum, and people were looking for their next victim. PEG would not benefit from NOT defending his mason as scum OR as town.

[Skruffs]

At work but will respond tonight. One point I want to make is the difference between rosso's reaction to adel(scum)/surye vs his reaction to coolbot(town)/surye. Ie, stated disinterest to either side in the former, interest towards the townie in the second.

mod: request deadline extension

I need to look at how surye set up yesterday to make sure that peg looked bad so he could safely bus MM (who cooperated), the knowledge of two scum, etc. Not enough time as it is yet.

[Skruffs]

AH.
I signed on to finish my post, but, it looks like you already ended the game.
I had already pointed out how Surye tried to start bussing Adel day one, but then balked when ADel came back with both guns firing. I wish you had actually looked and saw what happened instead of trying to place an inaccurate meta on Surye that he wouldn't bus.

[Skruffs]

Commentary

I don't think anyone really read or understood the purpose of this game, and that saddens me

. I tried to say clearly it was intended to be a game with standard roles but in awkward combinations. It was meant to be something of a fake out, in that there

were

no two-of a kind roles, but there could have been. However, there was the fbi agent and vigilante, the town roleblocker with no scum power roles, etc.

Of it helps, the FBI-SK finder vs Vig was very clever, IT hought, think I pointed that out towards the end.

Nice game Surye, that was a very nice bus.

Very sorry Skruffs, you put in a lot of effort for replacing so late. PEG left you in a bad spot.

Did I mention I'm not a fan of deciding the end game?

I am a little frustrated that in the end you decided to use the idea that scum would not bus ROSSO of all people as a reason to think of Surye as town. You should have seen that Surye was butering up to you. I'm not mad or anything, also, but if you are not a fan of deciding end game you should try harder to win the game before end game or to make yourself more valuable to the town so that you get NK'd. I don't think you did bad for what it is worth but I Think that (On consideration) it would make no sense for MM as fake claiming scum to have a cleared investigation on a potential partner; if I had been lynched (As his partner) he would be immediately lynched the next day. Surye knew there were two scums left, he knew it was MM over stark, etc.

Oh well. I did try, at least.