Mafia 78: Meta Breaking Mafia 1 - Game over!

[shaft.ed]

Deadline is exactly 1 week's time from now.

Yay and the town is lurking to victory!

[shaft.ed]

The scum seemed to have gone with the "kill are posters" strategy in this game.

[shaft.ed]

at how MM as scum fits: N1 kill Adel (duh),

I don't think Adel was the logical scum NK. Think you meant ABR.

Okay, so there's followup... but no pushing it later? That's a decided difference from how he pushed the Coolbot wagon. Also, if he is a daycop, why didn't he investigate pickem (or Rosso for that matter?) MM/Pickem is actually looking possible now.

I am seeing that as well. Need to look at MM's investigation list again. OK he investigates Tar Day2. I'll have to reread to see how logical that is in relation to his posting at the time. Certainly doesn't follow with his suspicions.

The crumbs, as I've shown above, could easily be nothing more than random posts dressed up as breadcrumbs

I've got to disagree with this one. If MM is faking he did a rather good job of setting up his claim.

I find scum mason Godfather a little out of whack for a Normal game

You haven't investigated either mason. This point is moot to say the least.

You *could* also be an SK who decided to hold fire, but I have my doubts.

Are you joking Gorrad already claimed the third party deaths.

[shaft.ed]

OK so what do people think about which pool to lynch from today? Seems if we lynch from the masons (or me) and we do it right, the other mason is confirmed and ends up dead during the night phase. If we lynch from the cops and do it right the other cop is confirmed and gets NK'd and we're left to decide from myself and the masons who's scum. The cop choice gives us the added benefit (or disadvantage if you suspect me a GF) of having an innocent on one of the three remaining players. If we take this at it's face value We've got a 50/50 shot of winning tommorow. On the other hand if we lynch from the mason/me pool and get it right we open tommorow with the two countering cops who have an inherent 50/50 shot without the assumption on the GF (but this assumes MM and Tar aren't bus'ing, which I'd say is about 98% safe to assume).

So doing the mason/me pool today would be a 50% chance at correctness from my or the masons perspective, but only 33% from the cops for today's lynch. With 50% odds tommorow.

Doing the cop pool today would be a 50% chance at correctness today from my/masons perspective with 100% chance from the real cop. With 50% odds on tommorow right ?(not sure how to factor in the worry of me being a GF into that equation although from my perspective it's a non-factor)

Are these numbers making sense to everyone, because they suggest we should lynch between MM and Tar today.

[shaft.ed]

I'm almost inclined to go with Tar simply because he has the decency to post. At this time I would be willing to lynch MM. But I will not vote to avoid a scum quicklynch in case I am wrong. I will definitely be around before deadline to place a vote.

Can someone please look at my math I posted previous. Does it make the most sense to be lynching from the claimed cops at this point?

MM does have what looks to be breadcrumbs, while Tar claimed rather early so he didn't have to worry about them.

Tar do you have anything prior to your claim to hint at your role?

Definition of a Normal game + several uncommon roles + game balance issues says otherwise (explain how Godfather-Mason plus 3 other scum plus three double-edged power roles [town Mason, Overeager Vig, FBI Agent] in a 15-player game is not at least somewhat unbalanced in the mafia's favor, even with cop+doc?).

Again, you have yet to investigate a mason. I'm quite curious why you would claim there is a Godfather Mason when you have yet to investigate one.

[shaft.ed]

Are MM and PEG even alive, WTF?

[shaft.ed]

Tar, I forgot about the crumbs you pointed out sorry. I'll reread them.

And I don't know why you are stuck on having a Godfather. I'd say scum masons are just as likely/easy to hide as a Godfather. Of course if there's a Godfather in the game it's me (or perhaps you if MM is a true paranoid/insane cop), but for what reason do you feel the need to continuously speculate on the Godfather business?

[shaft.ed]

I'm 99.9% sure that MM

What's the 0.01%?

Unfortunately, as it stands, after thinking it over, I don't think we're going to get a lynch unless pickem is scum. In the interests of trying to get a scum lynch today...

I don't get this play Tar.

Please look at my numbers again and get back to me as to why we should be lynching MM or you today. No one has said anything about that analysis although I've asked repeatedly.

If the scum are shaft.ed and MM, I congratulate them on winning through lurkerkilling.

Even if I were scum, this is a low blow to accuse me of lurkerkilling.

[shaft.ed]

I'd rather lynch MM at this point. Is anyone ever going to look at my post with numbers in it?

[shaft.ed]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

[shaft.ed]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

Hmm.. that's a good point. Very good actually. So Peg + MM it is. Or Peg + Tar.

Again, where's the overlap?

Hmm... Unless it's you + peg of course. Sorry, spoke too soon.

which is impossible given the conflicting cop claims.

[shaft.ed]

I'd rather lynch MM at this point. Is anyone ever going to look at my post with numbers in it?

I looked at it. The problem with is that it assumes we only have raw statistics to work from. But there are many unquantifiable aspects to this situation. All your numbers are saying is that there is scum in us 3, and them 2. But even this isn't 100%, as maybe both cops are valid, and the scum is you and peg. As you said, cop bus is very unlikely here, so the odds that if both scum are on one side or the other is higher on the 3 man side. Also, I trust you're town more then I trust peg, but I'm not 100% convinced MM is scum. So for me, all the overlap lies on PEG, which is why I feel safest there.

I see your point here. Thanks for addressing it.

[shaft.ed]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

Hmm.. that's a good point. Very good actually. So Peg + MM it is. Or Peg + Tar.

Again, where's the overlap?

Hmm... Unless it's you + peg of course. Sorry, spoke too soon.

which is impossible given the conflicting cop claims.

Not true at all. The possibility of GF is not eliminated is it?

How did Tar get the guilty on MM?

[shaft.ed]

That's the problem there really aren't any "others" besides us. If you're scum you've done a nice job of snowing me. I think from your perspective you ought to be able to see I'm confirmed as town. Actually am I confirmed from any perspective? I don't like to get ahead of myself because I always screw these things up but:

shaft.ed + mason cannot be scum because of Tar's guilty.

shaft.ed + MM/Tar cannot be scum because I would have hammered PEG. So That makes me confirmed?

So if we lynch right from the masons, the other mason dies during the Night Phase and I'm left to pick between the cops.

If we lynch right from the cops, the other cop dies during the night phase and I'm left to pick between the masons. Note that if Tar had investigated a mason this scenario would obviously be the correct one as it only requires one proper lynch.

Final option is that MM is an insane cop and not paranoid and has thus cleared PEG by his investigation. Is it likely he would be revealed as specifically "insane cop" or just as cop upon death? This would also require a Tar lynch to be the correct choice. And Surye would then have to bus his partner something that seems unreasonable as PEG is not here EVER!! I think this route ought to be abandoned.

[shaft.ed]

Okay, it looks like I was overlooking some issues with possible combinations, and your numbers now make sense shaft.ed. I'm willing to lynch MM, though I do still think peg has to be scum. Mostly because now that we know you + peg can't be, you're clearly not protecting a buddy, and add that to your past town play, I am confident you're town.

Tar, I know you wanted this too, so I think we can reach a consensus.

Vote: MM

It'll be curious is MM tries to get a vote back on peg or not...

I guess if I am confirmed my math doesn't make sense any more. Cause the town-side mason is ~100% certain his partner is scum so the higher odds lynch for you is your partner, just like the town-side cop is ~100% sure the other cop is scum.

I'm going to hold off my vote for a while but at this point I'm leaning towards the MM-PEG scum pair. With the level of lurking going on, that's likely my only choice anyway

[shaft.ed]

Would it be unreasonable to ask for an extension then?

[shaft.ed]

Guardian, thanks very much for understanding the situation. As much as I hate that two replacements have to come in at LyLo, it seemed unfair that the game be forced into one possible conclusion due to flaking.

Thanks

[shaft.ed]

I'm pretty sure that the scum are the players formerly known as MM and pickem, Surye possible but somewhat unlikely (his Rosso PBPA looked fairly legit on my last read, and my gut tells me Surye isn't the kind of player who's likely to bus that heavily). I'm rereading now to check my conclusions.

I had forgotten about the Rosso PBP. That's a good point. I'm a bit happier thinking Surye town at this point.

[shaft.ed]

Thanks a ton for replacing guys. I realize jumping in at LyLo can be painful. I'll be gentle...for a while at least.

[shaft.ed]

Why are you saying that it's an assumption that there rae two scum left, when you were just saying that (I think) there were two scum left?

Again, I will read, but I'd like to see a run down of the claimed cops claimed results. Presumably everyone has mass claimed, right?

Well you can PM Guardian and he ought to be happy to send you your predecessors investigations.

Quick rundown of Tar:

Surviving innocents: Toaster Strudel (should NOT have investigated her in retrospect), shaft.ed

Oh, by the way, I'm Sane, and I'm pretty damn sure that at least one of the masons is town. After all, I just got a guilty on MM.

And he claimed to investigate ABR N1.

[shaft.ed]

Well three mafia in a game of this size would seem horribly unbalanced for the town.

[shaft.ed]

Well three mafia in a game of this size would seem horribly unbalanced for the town.

Yes, and the game would be over, my point is how do we know there's more then one? I may be obvious, I'm just not remembering it. We know there's at least one, but what ensures two other then balance speculation?

Just wondering as it effects the math we've been discussion. Though assuming LyLo is better then not at this point.

Umm only two mafia have died.

[shaft.ed]

yeah 2 + 1 = 3 which is totally unbalanced in a game of this size with this many power roles. Unless Tar is the last scum, that might be balanced but I would doubt it.

I said three mafia would be unblanced, you said the game would be over. Bit confusing there as it seems like you're saying three have died.

[shaft.ed]

Dissapointed our deadline extension didn't insight discussion

OK replacements. We know you have a lot of work to do, but you were in the default position for lynch. Please do something or we will likely just go along with the default.

I'm very much not liking Skruffs not posting his results. If the claim were true it's a simple matter of PM'ing the mod.

[shaft.ed]

Dissapointed our deadline extension didn't insight discussion

OK replacements. We know you have a lot of work to do, but you were in the default position for lynch. Please do something or we will likely just go along with the default.

I'm very much not liking Skruffs not posting his results. If the claim were true it's a simple matter of PM'ing the mod.

I think you mean Stark?

Bah I think you're right the double S replacements are confusing.

[shaft.ed]

OK so my point is crap then. Stark hasn't posted anything yet, Skruffs was asking for the cop claims, which is entirely valid given he's neither of the cops.

[shaft.ed]

Alright.

My predecessor didn't exactly leave me in a golden pool of light.

I also can't really attempt to justify my predecessor's actions.

However, I would be happy to answer any questions posed, in the interest of helping the town progress through the game.

How did today's investigation go?

[shaft.ed]

#1: You outguess the mod as a reason to vote MM, even thought he setup is intentionally Bastard Moddy. I say that it is bastard MDody because there is an FBI agent who presumably hunts down serial killers and a vig who has to kill everynight, making him, flavor wise, an SK-miller until he is lynched.

Actually no, if Xtoxm had investigated Gorrad then he would have gotten an innocent.

I'm still waiting for you to respond as to why you think Surye isn't the kind of player to bus that heavily.

It's a lot less the player and a lot more the situation. We were at a deadline lynch. It's quite likely that had Surye not pushed for Rosso he might not have been lynched. Granted I was suggesting him, I really didn't have a case beyond a bad feeling about his posts. If you read the situation there were other outs for scum in that situation much better than bus'ing.

In realistic mafia, where SUrye was town, she did not use false dichotomies "One of A/B is scum"

Please point out the false dichotomies. there are plenty of dichotomies here but I wouldn't call them false.

[shaft.ed]

In my extreme benevolence: deadline is about a week from now, give or take a few hours.

There will be no extensions. None. (!)

I think you're being too nice. We're really wasting our time.

[shaft.ed]

Surye and Skruffs, on a percentage scale how confident does the wording in your PM make you that your mason partner should be town? Just the wording.

[shaft.ed]

Allright, sorry to drag replacements into this, but seeing as nothing has changed any there's little new information being generated.

unvote vote: stark

[shaft.ed]

Can we get a Tar prod please?

[shaft.ed]

I'll be very mad if you're scum Surye.

[shaft.ed]

doctor?

OK guys make your cases.

[shaft.ed]

Skruffs while there's no rush we do have a finite deadline. You dont have to worry about me hammering prematurely, I had that opportunity yesterday.

I'll also give this game some rereading to decide, but Surye has already bus'd two scum if he is in fact mafia. I'm not seeing that as incredibly likely but it is plausible. Mostly worried about the Adel interactions D1 at this point in regards to Surye.

Skruffs could you answer my question about your PM, and on a scale of 0-100% how certain would you be that Surye should have been a pro-town mason. Keep in mind just from the wording of the PM alone.

[shaft.ed]

Skruffs could you answer my question about your PM, and on a scale of 0-100% how certain would you be that Surye should have been a pro-town mason. Keep in mind just from the wording of the PM alone.

[shaft.ed]

Skruffs, just to let you know I'll be voting you tommorow if you don't answr my question.

Thanks

[shaft.ed]

So I really need to devote more time to this game.

Can we bandwagon Surye already?

so.... still not seeing where this is a good idea...

proven scum that started the wagon jumped off for no good reason when it got serious? How is that not good enough reason?

unvote, vote: surye

So given the not so confirmed nature of your masonhood, why do you think PEG would say this?



Adel often does that to townies as scum. I've been scum with Adel, so i'm 90% positive Surye isn't scum. Seriously, this wagon is useless, and there are no reasons for it...

[shaft.ed]

Totally messed up above.
EBWOP:

So I really need to devote more time to this game.

Can we bandwagon Surye already?

so.... still not seeing where this is a good idea...

proven scum that started the wagon jumped off for no good reason when it got serious? How is that not good enough reason?

unvote, vote: surye

Adel often does that to townies as scum. I've been scum with Adel, so i'm 90% positive Surye isn't scum. Seriously, this wagon is useless, and there are no reasons for it...

So given the not so confirmed nature of your masonhood, why do you think PEG would say this?

[shaft.ed]

as shaft.ed has not hammered me. IE if he's s cum, he can win at any point he wants. But Surye and Adel's interactions day one, and rosso and MM's reactions to that vs coolbot and aBR, indicate that Surye is scum. (Unless you think the entire mafia team deliberately picked one player to quasi bus/defend/distance/et), which rosso is not interested in games enough to do.

Thanks for the analysis. If not for the Day 1 intereactions with Surye, I would have already lynched you. I'm going to reread the scum in this game and see if I can pick up anything else. Also look to meta Surye. His blatant double bus'ing seems very ballsy for a newb scum.

[shaft.ed]

sweet I get two votes!

Surye needs to play more games as scum I cannot meta him.

I really don't see my vote going towards Surye, but I shall hold off to see if anyone has more info to add. Also I hate being the deciding factor in a game that last many months.

Adel I think the deadline was for Sunday, but a mild extension would be nice since Surye is out of town.

[shaft.ed]

OK can you tell me who the scum is then

I'm gonna sleep on it and put my vote up before deadline then.

[shaft.ed]

well Skruffs, sorry for wasting your time and thanks a lot for the effort you put forth. I hope you aren't actually town cause that would be very very bad, but looking back at the events around the Rosso wagon, I just don't buy Surye scum hard bus'ing there. Since I don't knw if I'll be on again before deadline.

vote: Skruffs

[shaft.ed]

Nice game Surye, that was a very nice bus.

Very sorry Skruffs, you put in a lot of effort for replacing so late. PEG left you in a bad spot.

Did I mention I'm not a fan of deciding the end game?

[shaft.ed]

It wasn't really the fact that he bus'd Rosso it was much more the situation. Reading it there were a lot of potential lynches that he could have pushed, and the night before he had lost a scum partner, he just found out that there was a cop in the game it really just looked like a really gutsy time to bus a player.

I really didn't think Surye bus'ing MM meant much. If anything I felt his eagerness to just flip lynch targets between MM and PEG a scumtell. Also MM's fakeclaim really didn't add up and I took him to be paranoid and not insane so I didn't think he was clearing anyone.

I really think my difficulties reading PEG had something to do with it. Almost every time I could find him saying something it looked more likely he was scum.

But yeah you did a hell of a job for a replacement in that spot. It's just that all of your evidence was so early in the game. It's hard to tell how seriously people are playing, and Surye's rocky start could easily have been a flustered town as much as flustered scum.