Guns & Roses IV [Game Over]

[Knightmare491]

VOTE: Smart

There are better legendaries out there.

[Knightmare491]

There are 8

Town

Roses

remaining.

I have something in mind to give us a slight edge. Will talk about it later.

[Knightmare491]

There are 8

Town

Roses

remaining.

I have something in mind to give us a slight edge. Will talk about it later.

So the plan is simple, we know we have 8 townies with roses, that means there's three with guns.
So one by one we just claim whether we have a gun or not. No need to claim what night it will be used on. That way we basically get 3 ICs and reduce the lynchpool by 3.

[Knightmare491]

I don't think this works as easily as you think it does.... have you read any of the discussion above?

I haven't read the thread yet, no.

I don't see what could go wrong with this.
If scum want to join in and say that they have a gun, then we know there is scum in the 4-6 people that claimed to have a gun.
Town shouldn't lie obviously, there's no need to lie and be trollie.

[Knightmare491]

So the plan is simple, we know we have 8 townies with roses, that means there's three with guns.
So one by one we just claim whether we have a gun or not. No need to claim what night it will be used on. That way we basically get 3 ICs and reduce the lynchpool by 3.

I see a flaw in your plan! What stops 1 of the scum from claiming gun? Do you still lynch in the guns aiming to hit them?

If you were joking, I apologise and give you permission to berate me.

Scum either choose to give us 3 ICs or put themselves in the lynchpool. If all 3 scum choose to claim having a gun then we can make the 3 shoot the other 3.

[Knightmare491]

Yeah in your post above, you just said that massclaiming automatically gives us 3 ICs. It doesn't.

pedit: ??? but they're not claiming their nights so how are you going to make them shoot each other

Well it kinda does tbh

Yeah I'm not asking them to claim their nights, but they will have a pool to shoot in basically. I'm assuming most vig would have chosen either n 1/2 anyway. This way they do not end up shooting town roses,

[Knightmare491]

So the plan is simple, we know we have 8 townies with roses, that means there's three with guns.
So one by one we just claim whether we have a gun or not. No need to claim what night it will be used on. That way we basically get 3 ICs and reduce the lynchpool by 3.

I see a flaw in your plan! What stops 1 of the scum from claiming gun? Do you still lynch in the guns aiming to hit them?

If you were joking, I apologise and give you permission to berate me.

Scum either choose to give us 3 ICs or put themselves in the lynchpool. If all 3 scum choose to claim having a gun then we can make the 3 shoot the other 3.

Why are you assuming scum ever put more than 1 of them as gun claims? One of them will fakeclaim gun, and so lynching in the gun pool is going for 1/4 chance of scum if we do this. Lynching in this game regularly is going for 3/13 chance of lynching scum, which is actually only marginally lower odds than your strategy which requires a mass claim and giving scum all the cards.

It's 14 not 13. Like I said it gives the vig a pool to shoot in. If only 1 of them claims to have a gun, we lynch 1/4, 25% chance to hit scum, vig kill reduces the pool even further. We lynch scum day 2 or 3 max. Guaranteed. What cards are we giving the scum please tell me? How does it hurt town.

[Knightmare491]

If your aim is to kill scum guaranteed by day 3, I suppose you're right.

In that case, what stops scum from claiming no guns? Do we really want scum to know who the guns are? They can just shoot inside of them and get guaranteed killshots off rather than having to risk shooting Roses. The payoff is we get 3 ICs for the first couple of days, but they'll drop like flies from scum's guns. The whole point of the roses is that they have potential to block kills from scum, so it feels counterproductive to remove that possibility.

I think having 3 ICs to reduce the lynchpool to 11 early on is a better bet than scum failing to get NKs.

[Knightmare491]

eyestort, they are both similar but also vastly different. Both net a modicum of information that is arguably useful but also not very useful; however, both are bad because mass claiming is bad and you should feel bad for letting it snowball to this. I hope this helps.

okay boomer

[Knightmare491]

@chkflip, tell me what's bad with it.

[Knightmare491]

Okay I'll break it down for you:-

Only one of these four of these things can happen,

1. Scum claim to have no guns.... Result - we get 3 ICs, aka increased chance to lynch scum, 3/11 instead of 3/14 + vigs don't shoot each other and have a higher chance of shooting scum, 3/10, if we lynch town day 1 and 2/10 if we lynch scum day 1.

2. One of the scum claims to have a gun.... Result - we get a lynchpool of 4, 25% chance to hit scum, vigs shoot within this pool. Guaranteed to lynch scum by day 2/3.

3. 2 scums claim to have a gun.....Result- we get a lynchpool of 5, 40% chance to hit scum, vigs shoot within this pool to reduce the pool further. Guaranteed to lynch scum by day 2/3.

4. All 3 scums claim to have a gun. Result - we get a lynchpool of 6, 50% chance to hit scum, vigs shoot within this pool to reduce the pool further. Guaranteed to lynch scum by day 2/3.

[Knightmare491]

So you're saying that in pre game chat, mafia decided that all three of them are gonna choose a night one gun, given the fact that many townies will probably choose a night 1 rose?

[Knightmare491]

VOTE: eyetott

That's not a town mindset, it's scum trying to scare town.

[Knightmare491]

They do also get a factional kill, but good point.

i don't think they can multitask and shoot 4 players in a night.

I asked the mod yesterday, they can.

[Knightmare491]

I wish my scum play was that god tier.

[Knightmare491]

Once anything is within your range, nothing is too strange.

LOL

[Knightmare491]

As for the massclaim, best case scenario we get a 1/4 chance of hitting scum lynching a claimed gun. That's nice and all, but 1/4=4/16, while if we lynched completely randomly that would give us 21.4% odds of lynching scum. Such a small improvement is not worth telling the mafia that much info about the town. Plus if we lynch guns we start lynching the only night actions the town actually has. And if it goes wrong, we wind up losing 3 townies plus the people lost to night action for one scum. thats a pretty terrible trade. it might be worth reevaluating the mass-claim after lynching a scum, but this is a terrible awful idea right now. scum points to anyone who supports it, and extra scum points to Knightmare for not reading the thread.

That's not the best case scenario. You make no sense.

[Knightmare491]

I don't even understand what the point of saying 1/4=4/16 there, it's also equal to 2/8, want to add any more useless numbers there?

[Knightmare491]

Honestly if we're gonna argue about a town lying, which is literally playing against win con at that point. Then that person just needs to be blacklisted by the entire playlist.

[Knightmare491]

you're right, scum could make a play for a scenario we all agree is worse for them. its possible. but realistically, they split 1/2 gun/rose. then if nothing goes wrong its 1/4 chance of hitting scum. if things get messed up because a townie fakeclaims or night actions mess things up, the odds go downhill. Plus we are hoping that the guns get their shots off night 1, which we cant count on.

Okay, let's suppose you are town and you chose a gun. Tell me realistically what night would you choose.

[Knightmare491]

So Knightmare, do you often PM mods hyper-specific scum-oriented questions about the setup they're running before you even post in thread?

I'm a very curious person so yes.

[Knightmare491]

People in favour of massclaim(not exactly a full claim, only claiming whether you have a gun or not)

1. Knighmare491
2. FB

People not in favour

1. Scumtott
2. chkflip
3. Lillith

[Knightmare491]

People in favour of massclaim(not exactly a full claim, only claiming whether you have a gun or not)

1. Knighmare491
2. FB

People not in favour

1. Scumtott
2. chkflip
3. Lillith
4. votato
5. paragon(?)

[Knightmare491]

eyestott

That’s an overly simplistic and incorrect way of looking at things

Neutral

The fact that you don't see how this negatively impacts town is worth -2 townreadpoints.

so he scum reads me then?

except we dont know how many guns scum have!
what if they all claim rose, and manage to NK all three guns in night 1?

scare mongering

VOTE: Knightmare491

VOTE: eyetott

That's not a town mindset, it's scum trying to scare town.

I think there's a very real possibility Knight is scum trying to force a massclaim so he and his buddies can kill all the guns N1

VOTE: Knightmare491

So you're saying that in pre game chat, mafia decided that all three of them are gonna choose a night one gun, given the fact that many townies will probably choose a night 1 rose?

eyestott only commits to voting me after chkflip voted me, because he's unsure about voting me FIRST as he's worried that it might look bad.

Regarding bolded, eyestott is saying that I as scum(during pregame) somehow knew that there would be a situation that enough townies would choose guns such that a clever massclaim can help town therefore I convinced my partners to all choose night 1 guns. So that I can pull this gambit and our team can kill the x amount of townies night 1.

That ^ is BS and something nobody as scum can even think of and a town! eyestott would know that the chances of that are almost zero.

[Knightmare491]

Mass claiming here hurts town tremendously and is of massive benefit to scum. This has been clearly explained by multiple people and yet knightmare is still trying to push for it to happen or arguing that it would be of benefit to town, which at this point I think has to be disingenuous.

I also agree with chkflip that him asking if the guns are in addition to a factional NK or instead of it seems like something much more likely to be asked in scum PT than asked by PM.

How is it a "massive" benefit to scum?

[Knightmare491]

Especially given that if scum do have all N1 guns — which i don’t think is far fetched at all

it is totally fucking far fetched.

Don't say especially because this is the only thing that is problematic with a day 1 mass claim.

[Knightmare491]

Better odds of lynching scum during the day 3/11 instead if 3/14 and, better odds of vig shooting scum with 3/10 odd if there is a town lynch day 1 and 3/11 if there is a scum lynch day 1 far outweighs the benefit of not mass claiming unless we consider your tinfoil hat theory.

[Knightmare491]

fixed

Better odds of lynching scum during the day 3/11 instead if 3/14 and, better odds of vig shooting scum with 3/10 odds if there is a town lynch day 1 and 2/10 odds if there is a scum lynch day 1 far outweighs the benefit of not mass claiming unless we consider your tinfoil hat theory.

[Knightmare491]

Checked the past renditions, only one mafia member chose a night 1 gun, so yeah totally far fetched and unlikely that all of them chose a night 1 gun.

[Knightmare491]

Not only in the last game, but even in the second one scum chose a rose.

[Knightmare491]

a town! eyestott would know that the chances of that are almost zero.

How is eyestott's ability to grasp the logic of the situation dependent on his alignment?

As town he thinks about if such a thing is actually possible, as scum he just slaps on anything to justify his scum read.

[Knightmare491]

As town he thinks about if such a thing is actually possible, as scum he just slaps on anything to justify his scum read.

And this is justified by what prior experience with him?

Never played with him, it's just a scum tell of sorts.

[Knightmare491]

Yes, used to. 5 years ago

[Knightmare491]

I agree with the second bit. Scum are over cautious about what they post and most probably try to filter their posts as much as possible.
The first part tho, I think you're sort of misunderstanding what I meant.

I struggle to think that, as town! eyestott comes to the conclusion that I am scum and I planned for all this.
I think it is much more likely from scum because they don't think such a thing through.

What do you think about him being hesitant to vote me?

[Knightmare491]

bad, bad bad bad post

such original content

[Knightmare491]

So the plan is simple, we know we have 8 townies with roses, that means there's three with guns.
So one by one we just claim whether we have a gun or not. No need to claim what night it will be used on. That way we basically get 3 ICs and reduce the lynchpool by 3.

I see a flaw in your plan! What stops 1 of the scum from claiming gun? Do you still lynch in the guns aiming to hit them?

If you were joking, I apologise and give you permission to berate me.

Scum either choose to give us 3 ICs or put themselves in the lynchpool. If all 3 scum choose to claim having a gun then we can make the 3 shoot the other 3.

This post really is devoid of thought, and assumes scum are all in the bottom 10% of players.

Scum simply have 1 person claim a gun and 2 person claim a rose. Our chances of finding scum in either of these pools are still =~= random while scum now has a roadmap to victory regardless of their actual picks

There, I gave them the optimal strategy so we can put this dumb discussion to rest.

If you really thought scum with pre-game chat hadnt figured that one out, then youre underestimating them to such an extent that we shouldve caught them all already.

Will you stop echoing what everyone has said already?
How would scum know in pre chat that there will be 8 roses and 3 guns? So no they can't plan this. Stop being stupid.

[Knightmare491]

The way he’s stuck to his guns about a massclaim strikes me more as “scum who has dug themselves into a hole so they keep digging down hoping they find a cave that leads back to the surface” rather than “town staunchly stickler to their pro-scum ideals”.

Also, he goes off at me for suggesting that maybe the scum all picked guns for the same night, when he ‘PRIVATELY’ asked about the viability of THIS EXACT THING

, long before I even suggested it.

They do also get a factional kill, but good point.

i don't think they can multitask and shoot 4 players in a night.

I asked the mod yesterday, they can.

That's a very bad misrep, asking whether maf can using their vig shot and factional kill on the same night is not the same as asking that.

[Knightmare491]

Kightmare: are you caught up in the game? If so where do you stand with overall reads?

Not yet, I'll get caught up by tomorrow. Other games need my focus today.

[Knightmare491]

I think farside is town, tone/motivations/gut feel. DC's push on me feels genuine, like he genuinely thought I'm scum trying to get info(only had a quick look at his iso).

More later

[Knightmare491]

eyestott

:

hey guys help me out here, what would happen if there is a massclaim

Spoiler:

The question is, during a mass claim, will the three scum all claim gun, all claim rose, or some mixture of the two?
statistically, (assuming that all townies claim truthfully) there are four scenarios

1: 8 town rose claims, 6 town gun claims
2: 9 town rose claims, 5 town gun claims
3: 10 town rose claims, 4 town gun claims
4: 11 town rose claims, 3 town gun claims

in scenario 1, we confirm 8 players as town, and in scenario 4, we confirm 3 players as town.
2 and 3 arent quite as useful scenarios, but they do allow us to make interaction based scumhunting much more accurate, especially within the n+1 claim groups (rose in 2, gun in 3)

The main downside to this is that it gives the mafia full setup knowledge (other than which night people's activities activate).

So my question to you is:
When does the benefits of a mass claim outweigh the drawbacks? And given that a single fakeclaim from town would ruin said plan, how likely do you think a town fakeclaim would be?


Maybe once one scum is dead, and there's only 3 scenarios, all of which result in the 2 scum either being in the same group (clearing the other group) or different groups (narrowing down possible pairs from factorial based to multiplication based)

*about an hour later*

eyetott

:

I'm an expert about this massclaim thing

Spoiler:

So the plan is simple, we know we have 8 townies with roses, that means there's three with guns.
So one by one we just claim whether we have a gun or not. No need to claim what night it will be used on. That way we basically get 3 ICs and reduce the lynchpool by 3.

I see a flaw in your plan! What stops 1 of the scum from claiming gun? Do you still lynch in the guns aiming to hit them?

If you were joking, I apologise and give you permission to berate me.

Scum either choose to give us 3 ICs or put themselves in the lynchpool. If all 3 scum choose to claim having a gun then we can make the 3 shoot the other 3.

Why are you assuming scum ever put more than 1 of them as gun claims? One of them will fakeclaim gun, and so lynching in the gun pool is going for 1/4 chance of scum if we do this. Lynching in this game regularly is going for 3/13 chance of lynching scum, which is actually only marginally lower odds than your strategy which requires a mass claim and giving scum all the cards.

It's 14 not 13. Like I said it gives the vig a pool to shoot in. If only 1 of them claims to have a gun, we lynch 1/4, 25% chance to hit scum, vig kill reduces the pool even further. We lynch scum day 2 or 3 max. Guaranteed. What cards are we giving the scum please tell me? How does it hurt town.

The fact that you don't see how this negatively impacts town is worth -2 townreadpoints.

Now I know Paragon answered his questions and told him that mass claiming would be bad, but he went from having question about massclaiming to straight up accusing someone(me) for not knowing the negative impacts of it.

[Knightmare491]

I'm upto about page 18 and my reads are like this

Town
farside, DC
Paragon, chk
Lillith
FB

Null
Votato, SC, SS, Vecna, Ico, Abr

Scum
eyestott

[Knightmare491]

I feel like S_S is struggling for content, some of his posts feel unnecessary and like he wants to show that he is contributing, but it's mostly on stuff that doesn't really need to be talked about?

[Knightmare491]

Like this one, he barges in on a conversation farside and chkflip are having, that's his first post after 8 hours and his next post is after 12 hours. It's a very easy way to post a lot of

words

without actually saying anything of value.

Spoiler:

Hmm, momo is posting a elsewhere on site but chose not to respond to his role PM in this game. Also, firebringer appears to be happy.

Don't be that guy.

Different person, same concept.

It's not a scum tell. It's never been a scum tell. It's a baseless argument point that is at best bad meta and at worst completely fucking worthless.

Venca is posting elsewhere around ms

So what?

I would like to have reads of people playing the game.
I would also like to know why he's avoiding posting here.

It's not a scum tell. It's never been a scum tell. It's a baseless argument point that is at best bad meta and at worst completely fucking worthless.

Actually, it can be.

I see where you're coming from; activity tells are usually bullshit because of RL and whatever.

But if someone is posting sitewide but is silent in one game, then it's not an RL thing. They're choosing to not post in this game. And there's definitely a mode where someone would say "I'm afraid to post in this scumgame because of whatever reason," but it's a lot less likely for someone to say "I'm afraid to post in this towngame because of whatever reason." I have had situations as scum where I didn't post despite being available and there being things to talk about, because I was afraid of ballsing it up.

Of course, it's player-dependent. Not everyone feels that self-conscious as scum, and some people like playing scum more than playing town and are therefore more invested in scumgames. Also, sometimes people focus on one game (especially if it's at a critical point) and let others drop for the time being.

[Knightmare491]

Wow you guys love blowing up the thread, will catch up ~soon.

I'm happy with my vote, okay with lynching either of eyes or S_S today.

[Knightmare491]

Well then they should be.

[Knightmare491]

I'll move to SC if needed, I had a TR on Paragon so not gonna vote Maria.

[Knightmare491]

Id be so down for this.
Completely being ignore by all as he continues to post throughout ms while doing nothing here.

What do you want me to do? Go through 500 pages of shit posting? no, I'm not interested thanks.
I've given my reads and my position on the wagons. I don't see a need to do anything else.
I give you scum you refuse to lynch it, can't do anything else.

[Knightmare491]

Yes the game has a lot of post but eye said he was at leadt trying to read a few pages back to get an idea what is going on.

most of what is going on is useless, so I'm not gonna bother reading it. I feel I have good reads so it's kinda pointless reading posts in which people are just pointing out their own meta or acting like kids.

[Knightmare491]

oh god. if you don't think you can handle it, don't play? super scummy that you show up to defend yourself as soon as the finger is on you. that said, i still think there are better wagons than knightmare.

I did not expect it to go to 90 pages day 1. It's not like I cannot handle it, is there a compulsive need for people to make 1000 posts or they're automatically scum?
I'm not a shit poster and I'm not going to contribute to blowing up the thread for no reason.
And what is it with the defending? Town shouldn't defend themselves?

[Knightmare491]

Knightmare only showing up now with a wagon on him sucks

I'd probably get lynched regardless of whether I show up or not, cause y'all fucking stupid. Anyway we'll have a nice convo about this post game.

[Knightmare491]

showed*

[Knightmare491]

What's the point of doing that?

[Knightmare491]

Also best of luck to getting any bloody info off my wagon cause tomorrow everyone is going to say OH IT WAS NEAR THE END OF DAY 1, SO WE HAD TO VOTE HIM.
Making it a perfect lynch for scum.

[Knightmare491]

I'm not gonna repeat myself. If you think posting less=scum go ahead.

[Knightmare491]

That was to farside ^

[Knightmare491]

That was to farside ^

Im already voting you.

I know,
I just hope you learn from you mistakes and don't lynch people just because they refuse to comment on useless dribble drabble when their overall reads are fine and there is nothing scummy about posting less.

[Knightmare491]

My exp in this game sums up why theme park isn't a great place to play mafia, in for newcomers.

[Knightmare491]

ebwop

My exp in this game sums up why theme park isn't a great place to play mafia in, for newcomers.