Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)


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Post Post #1213 (isolation #0) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:34 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

Greetings fellow townies
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Post Post #1214 (isolation #1) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:36 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

This game looks like it's pretty much over. Is there any reason not to mass claim?
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Post Post #1215 (isolation #2) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:40 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

Insert tuxedo mask meme "my job here is dunn"
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Post Post #1217 (isolation #3) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:58 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

Why were we directing the hider, by the way? Why does it matter where they hide
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Post Post #1219 (isolation #4) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:02 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

OK, I see it in the role pm

If we have a detective and a tracker and they targeted two different vts last night, we automatically win

Adding the hider on top of that, there's a very small chance that we don't automatically win from this point by claiming all existing results
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Post Post #1220 (isolation #5) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:02 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

OK, I see it in the role pm

If we have a detective and a tracker and they targeted two different vts last night, we automatically win

Adding the hider on top of that, there's a very small chance that we don't automatically win from this point by claiming all existing results
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Post Post #1221 (isolation #6) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:04 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

Isn't this setup crazy townsided?
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Post Post #1223 (isolation #7) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:06 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

3 confirmed power roles

2 vts confirmed by power roles

4 remaining poe players

And we can eliminate 4 times before losing
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Post Post #1226 (isolation #8) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:23 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

How about if the tracker found a vt, they claim first, and then hider claims?
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Post Post #1227 (isolation #9) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:25 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1225, Froppy wrote:What if they managed to find another PR there is also a 50/50 that the detective was even selected.
Even if hider outs, they can continue investigating people

If mafia ignores the tracker and double kills the hider/their target from within the poe pool, we also win, I believe
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Post Post #1231 (isolation #10) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:27 am

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1230, Battle Mage wrote:massclaim probably good. Dunnstral speculation bad.
??
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Post Post #1232 (isolation #11) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:35 am

Post by Dunnstral »

ok... I'll start us off

I'm the
Tracker


Night 1 - Aristophanes didn't perform the kill
Night 2 - Battle Mage went nowhere

The second result is the most important, Battle Mage is confirmed to be
Town and VT


So that's one of two town VTs accounted for, we need one more for a win today

So if the hider thinks it's a good idea, they can claim next. If they don't do that, it's fine if I die tonight - I got my result out and there's another investigative, and they can skip over Battle Mage and I in the hider charts

(It doesn't really matter that I revealed him as vt since I'm a primary target anyway)
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Post Post #1237 (isolation #12) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:56 am

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1235, Battle Mage wrote:seriously though, imagine not tracking Nash or Drew.
I didn't want to overlap with other prs
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Post Post #1238 (isolation #13) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:57 am

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1236, Battle Mage wrote:Did Aristophanes visit anyone N1?
There's no reason for me to claim that
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Post Post #1249 (isolation #14) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:23 am

Post by Dunnstral »

Alright with that claim it's deducible that Ari didn't target anyone night 1

Drew isn't cleared it's a 50/50 on who would shoot, which we can't figure out

we just need 1 hider result on not me/you/dead person

if not then that's fine, hider doesn't have to claim and we can make a new target list that doesn't include you + battle mage + me so we're not overlapping anything
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Post Post #1250 (isolation #15) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:25 am

Post by Dunnstral »

Unfortunately Froppy got the 'Bad Role' in my opinion but oh well

Also I think picking vigilante over tracker in this setup would be really really bad - I think this setup needs some review
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Post Post #1253 (isolation #16) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:54 am

Post by Dunnstral »

That's not necessary, I can just track ari again
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Post Post #1279 (isolation #17) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:58 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

oof our night actions such.

I think the game is still locked in? Between me and drew we get 1 more clear, and if they want to 2 for 1 kill they'll have to kill someone in the poe

I'll target looker
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Post Post #1280 (isolation #18) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:58 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

*suck
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Post Post #1281 (isolation #19) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:59 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1266, Battle Mage wrote:Nash - Vanilla
Aristophanes - Vanilla
Gypyx - Vanilla
Looker - Unclaimed, but presumably vanilla
superbowl9 - Vanilla
reads wise I think it's probably superbowl or nash
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Post Post #1285 (isolation #20) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:12 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

Actually I take it back I don't think it's superbowl

VOTE: Nash
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Post Post #1288 (isolation #21) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:05 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1272, superbowl9 wrote:So to win the game:
1. Elim Nash today
2. Drew, Froppy, and Dunstrall investigate Ari, gypyx, and looker respectively
3. If Froppy or Dunstrall get positive, elim their positive result. If Drew dies, elim Ari. If no one gets positive, elim me.

If scum don't nightkill obviously we just keep elimming outside conftown until we win
I'm following this, what are you doing drew?
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Post Post #1292 (isolation #22) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:53 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

We win.

Right there there's 9 people alive, 4 of which can't be mafia

If Nash is town and mafia kill Drew + Ari and I get an innocent tracker result...

6 people alive, 4 of which can't be mafia (Tracker + 2 clears + Psychologist) - both candidates can be eliminated before a loss

If mafia kill me instead and Drew gets an innocent on Ari...

7 people alive, 4 of which can't be mafia (Tracker Clear + Hider Clear + Hider + Psychologist) - all 3 candidates can be eliminated before a loss
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Post Post #1298 (isolation #23) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:18 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

VOTE: Gypyx
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Post Post #1311 (isolation #24) » Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:01 am

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1308, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 1292, Dunnstral wrote:We win.

Right there there's 9 people alive, 4 of which can't be mafia

If Nash is town and mafia kill Drew + Ari and I get an innocent tracker result...

6 people alive, 4 of which can't be mafia (Tracker + 2 clears + Psychologist) - both candidates can be eliminated before a loss

If mafia kill me instead and Drew gets an innocent on Ari...

7 people alive, 4 of which can't be mafia (Tracker Clear + Hider Clear + Hider + Psychologist) -
all 3 candidates can be eliminated before a loss
The bit in bold is not necessarily true with the presence of a hider. As such, scum could theoretically have still won this game, and the giving up was premature and needless. I've won as scum in a worse position than this.
It's still true, town eliminates town -> 6 people alive, mafia kills the hider's target (an unclear vt) + the hider, that brings the game to 4 players alive. Those players are the previous days hider clear, the tracker clear, the psychologist, and the last mafia, who is the only non-cleared player left

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