Mystery Mafia 2- Game Over! But who won!?

[Patrick]

Wow, this is the strangest game I've ever been in.

On reading through then, the most striking thing is mnowax's daykilling role. I think he's unlikely to be mafia or a day SK because of the seemingly unlimited number of kills he can make per day. The fact that he killed mafia and a few of his other comments reinforce that impression in my mind. I'm thinking we should use his ability as our lynch for the time being, because it gives us multiple lynches per day. Also second Dasquian's comments about mnowax not just shooting whenever he feels like it. I'm not utterely ruling out that mnowax could be scum, since this is an unpredictable game, but town or scum, we can use his power to our advantage.

To move onto looking scum, the two people who've pinged my scumdar so far are Nightson and populartajo.

Nightson has 4 posts so far, all of them about trying to kill mnowax. Whilst I can understand initial shock, I'm rarely very keen on arguments such as, "he's behaving in an anti-town manner so we should kill him" without showing much indication that he thinks mnowax is scum.

Populartajo seems to be making alot of assumptions about scum roles. This:

Im trying to outguess the mod. Those were just hypothesis that could be tur or be developed as long the game progresses.
I think scum can communicate during day since we know we have new players (new scum included) and that they should have a way to catch up with each other.
And yes Alabaska was a Goon (so did he lie about his powers, fakeclaim given by the mod?) but I think that the Mod has preferences for scum roles (you usually have to check them first to send them to the right persons). So I assume he sent them first.
And yes Im crazy.

Doesn't entirely reassure me. The part where you said, "scum have nice roles" looked more like a statement than a hypothesis, and as lord hur pointed out, there's no evidence for it, since the only dead scum was a goon. And also, the assumption that people early on the list are more likely to be scum doesn't make sense (why assume that the order he announced us in correlates to the order he sent PMs?)

I won't bother with voting since I think using mnowax's kill as our lynch is better than a traditional lynch right now, but those are my suspicions.

[Patrick]

tajo, why have you claimed two different things already?

Dasquian, unvote before he kills us all. Please unvote, now.

This is mnowax's show. The rest of us are mere moles in his Whack-a-Mole game. It's not really a game of mafia, I'm afraid.

I don't like this. I think it's a bad precedent to be setting.

[Patrick]

Sigh. Bored of this game now.

Who's scum?

[Patrick]

Posting in response to prod. Should get to this tomorrow.

[Patrick]

Mnowax shouldn't be confirmed Town just because it would be too gutsy of a move to daykill as Mafia. He could have killed his partner as a plan to look towny. Think about it, 1 towny DK, 1 mafia DK, and 1 towny NK tonight. Looks pretty good for the scum.

I still think it's very unlikely mnowax is mafia. The way Alabaska played round him (initially trying to fish for a policy lynch, then seeming very afraid of him) fits for how I think he'd play if mnowax wasn't on his team. The tone of some of Alabaska's later posts, especially the last one, makes me think they're not aligned.

I'm mostly neutral on populartajo's claiming thing. I doubt he's making it up, because it's guaranteed to draw attention and has no obvious benefit I can see for scum. His restriction I can easily see as scum or town though. I too am interested in Greasy Spot's reaction. First he said it was scummy as hell and implied it was so obvious that it hardly needed explaining. Then he reduced it too this:

What I think populartajo is saying is the Mod is PMing him claims and he has to make that claim when he receives it. I don't know if I believe him or not. I don't think it is too far fetched for this game. Not sure whether he is scum or not but he is on the scummy side of the scale.

Which seems to be a more neutral stance on the triple claim. I think it's possible he was trying to jump on an easy opportunity then shifted his stance when it looked like nobody was biting. It's enough to make me

Vote: Greasy Spot

. My suspicions of populartajo haven't entirely evaporated, but I feel some scumhunting vibes from his recent posts.

tajo, why do you feel Nightson is probably town?

I've noticed how little time we seem to have. People who haven't yet given suspicions or weighed in substantially (I'm thinking especially ashmite and VRK from memory) really need to jump to it.

[Patrick]

I guess you did find 3 claims in one day Pro-town?

I don't remember saying that. In my last post I said I was mostly neutral on it, meaning the claims doesn't make me think he's more likely scum or more likely town.

How does saying he is on the scummy side of the scale being neutral?

I saw that as your opinion of him on the whole, rather than the 3 claims, where you said you didn't know whether or not to believe them and that it's not too farfetched for this game.

You mean like your doing to me right now.

I didn't have much of an opinion of you before your reaction to populartajo's claiming. Basically, I think your response to it takes the easy route rather than really trying to decide whether or not it's scummy (I'm still not that clear on

why

you think what he did is more likely to be done by scum than by town). I do think your stance in Post 126 is different to your previous stance which was basically, "It's scummy as hell, and asking why is stupid".

How dare you come in here and call out other people for posting when you have only made 4 posts yourself. The audacity of some people.

I think I've added a decent amount of content to this game, and what is in the posts is more important than how many you make. So yes, I do dare to call out people who aren't really doing anything.

[Patrick]

I don't have much time right now, but quick round up of what I think of recent stuff:

Greasy Spot still seems scummy to me, but the speed of the wagon on him is obviously alarming. Ashmite's vote seems obviously the scummiest, putting Greasy Spot at lynch-1 without even a warning, and without adding any content whatsoever. In fact, he's generally added practically nothing to the game, except for critisising mnowax for saying too much about his role. Coaster.

The fact that Greasy Spot voted Dasquian of all people is also odd, and might be a slight connection between him and ashmite84.

My vote would only be OMGUS if I didn't include any kind of reasoning with it, which I did include.

Your reasoning made no sense. He didn't blindly vote you (he gave a reason, whether you agree with it or not is another matter). Your accusation of "blind voting" looks like it applies more to ashmite84 or mnowax.

Patrick does not make a case against me on this page. He says I'm trying to jump on an easy opportunity of populartajo while I am actually just putting my thoughts about his claims in the thread. If I haven't voted someone then I can't possibly be jumping on them.

Lack of vote doesn't mean you weren't attacking him. This is a pretty silly defence.

[Patrick]

Unvote

, will say more after work today. (Yes, I'm aware of the deadline situation).

[Patrick]

Mod

: Can we have an exact indication day and timewise of when the deadline hits? Thanks. On the topic, I'm surprised I forgot (and that nobody else mentioned) PMing the mod and asking for an extension. The rules state that we can get one with good activity, which we seem to have here. Recommend people do this.

I don't know what I think of the self hammer. I think it's likely he believed he was hammering himself and the frustration is genuine, but scum can get angry when being attacked for reasons they don't think are valid. I've decided that the way this wagon skyrocketed makes Greasy Spot look more townish, which is what makes me uncomfortable.

@ashmite, your answer doesn't really do much for me. If you're town, you shouldn't be satisfied with minimal contribution of the kind you've giving us here, you should be taking the initiative and looking for scum. I modded your first game (newbie 592) where you were town, so I know you're capable of it.

I'll hold my vote for now, until we see whether or not an extension is possible, if not, I'll settle for lynching Greasy Spot.

[Patrick]

Deadline is just before 2 pm GMT tomorrow (well today actually - it's the small hours of the morning here), and I'm not even entirely sure I can be on again before then.

Vote: Greasy Spot

, because I don't think rushing ashmite is practical here. I feel kind of sorry for Greasy Spot if he's town, because he's become kind of the compromise lynch, but I can imagine wagoning someone else now ending in a no lynch.

I think ashmite is a decent scum candidate regardless of what Greasy Spot is. Nothing he's done looks protown to me.

I'm not really seeing the big deal about populartajo's "Can we lynch Greasy and then DGB?" It just seems like expressing two suspicions, can someone explain what's scummy about it?

[Patrick]

Currently on holiday, see sig. Internet access is 2 pounds an hour where I am, so I'm not really spending much time on. I'm aware of current events and still hold my suspicions on ashmite and Nightson, but I'll need a bit longer at the computer to have a bit of a read up. I know the deadline is fast, so I'll get to it the day I return (Saturday). Should we try to get an extension again?

[Patrick]

Tired. Dang. I will say that I'm slightly more suspicious of ashmite than Nightson, if only because I've checked Nightson's posts around the site and they have seemed pretty patchy lately.

I've taken a look at DGB's posts. Pretty sure the sucking up indicates she's not aligned with mnowax. It seems DGB was trying to start a very late bandwagon on someone other than Greasy Spot -- normally I'd say she just didn't want to be on the wagon of someone she knew was town, except that multiple scumgroups are looking likely this game, so she probably didn't know he was town. Her votes on both populartajo and then on ashmite were placed less than 24 hours before the deadline, so she likely knew they wouldn't go anywhere. I could see that as safe distancing from ashmite (since we know tajo was town). Of course, this relies on the assumption that she has scumbuddies at all, which we don't know.

I won't vote ashmite just yet because of lynch-1. In general I'm getting that bad feeling again that we don't have much of a case against anyone, but he's my best bet for now. Hopefully I'll have one or two more insights when awake.

[Patrick]

I'll

vote: ashmite84

. I'll vote Nightson if needed to get a lynch. Not much in it, except I doubt Nightson is actually lurking, so much as simply absent, from a quick look at his post history. (He hasn't posted anywhere in over a week).

[Patrick]

Now then, I've been reading the thread as its been going on (bm having informed me that he'd like me to replace in to this game at some point.) and thus I'd like to point out that no matter what anyone says, GS was the right lynch for day one, because he claimed scum . He did this by saying "go scum" when he tried to lynch himself. Anyone who tries to end their own life and say go scum is claiming scum.

I disagree. I don't think he was claiming scum at all; I think he was telling us he was town, and so disgusted with how we'd played that he wanted scum to win.

Thus, I feel that an FOS: Patrick and lord_hur is in order, for unvoting him and saying that that was a townie reaction.

Skimmer. I said that the speed of the wagon made him more likely to be town; that's based on gut and my past experiences of stuff like that happening. I mentioned his attempted self hammer as looking genuinely frustrated, but could have seen that frustration from either alignment. Even if I had said that, I don't see where the FoS comes from.

I'm a still a bit confused as to whether or not you think mnowax is today's play.

[Patrick]

Not interested in a mnowax lynch. I still think his interactions with both dead scum don't look like he's allied with either (he could be a different type of scum obviously, but it still reduces the chance he's scum in my eyes). I don't even think he's contributing that badly (ashmite and VRK both seem like lesser contributors to me).

remus, what do you think of VRK?

[Patrick]

remus, I think your stance on VRK seems pretty lenient given what your case against mnowax is. That aside, our only posible lynch today is ashmite, and I think it's better than no lynching, even though I'm always leery of lynching without a claim. Remus's vote didn't count because he forgot to unvote. Someone needs to vote ashmite in the next half an hour or so.

[Patrick]

With only 8 days here, it's important that Kison gets up to speed and on record quickly (welcome btw).

The only two players I'm remotely suspicious of are remus and VRK, and the reasons are rather light for a day 3.

On the topic of nightkills, the flavour does suggest a double kill on Dasquian. I'm leaning towards that being from two different scumgroups rather than a vig, just because we have one dead vig type role already, and mnowax is also quite likely to be a vig type role. If that's true, we know we have at least two scum within (mnowax, lord hur, remussaidow, Patrick, VRK). That's not necessarily useful now, but with there being alot of player turnover, it's worth keeping in mind, especially if a number of people in that group die as town.

remus, can you give an example or two of specific scummy actions/posts from mnowax on day 1?

[Patrick]

Gah. Why does stuff have to happen on the day I'm working for 13 hours with no internet access in sight? I'll catch up on all this tomorrow - looks like we might have something interesting from skimming.

[Patrick]

Those arguments turned my tired brain to mush. I'm thinking VRK is on drugs. But now seriously, on looking at populartajo's posts, I'm surprised nobody seems to have mentioned the possibility that he investigated Greasy Spot. He mentioned that he was curious about Greasy, then voted him and refused to move it, whilst also setting up a future lynch for when Greasy turns up scum. That looks to me like he investigated him and got a guilty, or at least, it seems the most likely scenario.

I'm feeling kind of confused right now. Everyone except lord hur has a clean slate in my eyes, and at first I thought he almost has to be scum. (For a start, if lord hur is town, that means we had all townies throughout day 2. But BM has said that new players are introduced pre-determined intervals, so I guess this could be viable).

L_H and patrick, any reason you think you are still alive? also, Kison was scum? all it says was that he was a bomb but it's colored in red like the other scum are

As to why we're still alive, it's because we haven't been lynched or nightkilled or daykilled yet. Not sure what you were looking for. I'm currently assuming Kison was scum because of the colour of the role reveal.

[Patrick]

We know that there are two anti-town forces : those who claw/dismember people (werewolf for short), and those who shoot people (mafia).

I take it you're not claiming any kind of vig role then. The only possibility I can think of that allows you to be town is if the vengeful vig role is a role that can kill people who voted it (though that would require it to be killing in a gory way and to be able to kill in revenge the night after it gets lynched.)

I'll go with a

Vote: lord_hur

, as I think the best explanation for night events so far is that he's scum, rather than the vengeful vig killing or some other weirdness than I haven't thought of.

[Patrick]

- the 2 gun shots
- the 2 gory attacks

Though your vengeful vig theory is interesting and would almost explain your kills if there wasn't this gory kill component, which is incompatible with a vig's gunshot.

The shotgun attacks can't have been the work of a vengeful vig, because populartajo didn't vote for ashmite, so they must be coming from scum. It's fairly mafia-ish type flavour, so I could see those kills being from mafia (which would have to be you from my pov). Alternatively, those kills came from DGB then Kison (I'm thinking those guys aren't aligned with Alabaska at least due to rolenames).

The gory attacks could be coming from a werewolf scumgroup or from the vengeful vig. Unusual kill flavours for vigs have certainly been used before, but I think it's quite unlikely. The only scenario I can think of where you're town is if the gory attacks are from the vengeful vig and the if the shotgun kills came from DGB/Kison. I don't think that's likely, to the point where I'm happy to say that if you're lynched today and somehow show up town, I'll accept my fate the following day if still alive.

I see that you inspected your cover options thoroughly, and also that you didn't rule this one out completely because you are so desperate that even the faintest escape route is worth keeping open.

This is just empty rhetoric - it makes sense for me to consider all the possibilities as any alignment, not just as scum, which your post here seems to imply. Note that I brought up the type of reasoning we're both using here in my Post 340, so I'm hardly shying away from it.

By the way, you should give up, Patrick. Even if you do get me lynched today, there is no way you can make it to the endgame. That explosion was terrible for town, but it was even worse for you, as I am the only bush left you can hide behind, and you have to bring me down because I know your role.

Empty again. I want to get you lynched because I think you're scum and lynching you today helps the town more than being lynched myself and only lynching you the following day (and if we're somehow both town, I doubt it matters what order we die in). Even I was scum it would make no sense for me to just give up, so this quote by you just seems like an attempt to look protown.

I wish you could see the big smile I have on my face right now, Patrick.

lol, now you're really overdoing it.

[Patrick]

This reasoning on rolenames is quite bad : are you saying that only town got those awesome roles, and that scum would be restricted to only standard goons? That would be pretty unbalanced against them, don't you think?

I think anyone who is in the mafia will likely have "mafia" in their rolename. I never said they have to be all standard goons, it's quite possible there is a mafia roleblocker or godfather or some other mafia powerole.

Also, BM said that Kison "had returned for a last kill". This is a pretty strong hint that he was of the same alignment than in the previous game (which was scum).

This is true. Not sure how it's relevant though, since his name appearing in red is an even stronger hint that he was scum.

And finally, there is still no hint of a second scum group. Only one shotgun kill (1 mafia group) and one mauling per night.

You've completely lost me with this. No hint at a second scumgroup? You don't think two kills at night is a hint of a second scumgroup? I'm not sure what you mean by this comment.

Do you have an example in mind? I must admit I'm pretty new compared to you, and I have never read a game featuring this.

Mafia in Theoville was the one I had in mind, where vig kill flavour was different each night (shooting, butchering then stabbing I believe).

You are so very wrong. The order does matter. A lot. Kison had a role very un-werewolf-ish. DGB was killed by a werewolf (so, you). And Alabaska J was a goon for sure. So I think you're a SK. Killing you first will most likely prevent one night kill.

I said it probably doesn't matter if we're both town. The rest of my paragraph explains why I think it does matter, because you're likely scum.

[Patrick]

Lord_hur, you're seriously claiming you think I'm an SK? I don't think any lone scum would exist early in the game; it would be near impossible for them to win. I think scum early in the game likely had partners alive or partners that will appear later.

You seem to be just falling back on argument by repetition to try and get me lynched.

Although your argument about Patrick being useful is of no importance, since he is werewolf. He could have helped town against scum all he wanted, without any consequence.

I think it's obvious that he's saying he thinks I look more protown than you due to what I've posted, not that he thinks I'm a werewolf being helpful in hunting down rival scum.

[Patrick]

Patrick, I notice you did not contemplate the fact that one of you and lord hur is probably scum when you first posted after the explosion.

Clearly not true. In the second paragraph of the quote, I did exactly what you're saying I didn't. I was feeling kind of confused because lord_hur didn't look especially scummy to me all game, but the circumstances meant there were only limited ways he could be protown (vengeful vig, or lord_hur himself causing a kill as a protown role). Did you somehow miss that?

[Patrick]

Sorry but I did sort of gloss over it. I'm not really clear about the vengeful vig stuff or all the mechanics of this game.

So, you saw a potentially scummy post, and instead of reading it more closely than usual, you skimmed it. Noted. I also think you should try to get the vig stuff, because it's related to this entire discussion.

Still, you didn't come out and say "one of me and lord hur has to be scum, vote lord hur". But when lord hur came out voting you, your voted him.

That's correct: I don't think that one of us has to be scum. I brought up the me/lord_hur issue in that post and said that initially I thought he had to be scum (and initially was going to vote him immediately), but I decided it wasn't as clear cut as I had first thought. Since it was past midnight, I decided to leave it for the night. Lord hur's immediate vote for me took out one possibility for him to be town because it meant he wasn't claiming responsibility for a kill as a protown powerole (not sure whether I'd have believed him, but would have been something to think about). I then decided to vote him.

[Patrick]

So you think his vote on you makes him scummy?

It made him slightly more likely to be scum, because it took away any chance he was a protown killer. That's not useful to anyone else, because neither myself or lord_hur is claiming responsibility for any kills.

[Patrick]

Good, someone seeing the light. Now look how Patrick carefully avoided the werewolf subject, especially when accusing me.

I haven't ignored the subject. Let's look at a few comments:

On the topic of nightkills, the flavour does suggest a double kill on Dasquian. I'm leaning towards that being from two different scumgroups rather than a vig, just because we have one dead vig type role already, and mnowax is also quite likely to be a vig type role. If that's true, we know we have at least two scum within (mnowax, lord hur, remussaidow, Patrick, VRK). That's not necessarily useful now, but with there being alot of player turnover, it's worth keeping in mind, especially if a number of people in that group die as town.

Alright, so there's no specific mention of the word werewolf, but this is the first comment anyone made in the game about precisely the type of situation we have here. Your argument then, is that I'm a werewolf SK (which is ridiculous for balance reasons anyway - such a role appearing on day 1 of this game would be practically doomed to lose) and that I brought this up... for what reason? To try and worm my way out if I was ever left in such a situation? Sounds like a great way of doing it.

You keep trying to paint me as avoidant, you say I'm scummy for even bringing up the idea that the vengeful vigilante might have been responsible for a nightkill or two, despite the fact you brought it up first in your Post 337. Frankly, the fact that you're so adamant I'm a werewolf makes me wonder if you've been behind the shotgun kills, despite the fact that would require rather unusual vengeful vig flavour, but that doesn't matter too much at the moment.

[Patrick]

Patrick, what is the vengeful vig role all about? I didn't see ashmite claim anywhere or explain his role and I didn't find much in the wiki. If you've answered this before, please point me to the right post.

I don't know. My best guess is it's a vig who can only kill people who voted it/did something against it.

[Patrick]

Second, in post 346 Kison makes a PBPA and about Patrick he says something like (paraphrased): "Patrick has good logic, thinks the way I do, but I only want to know why he wants VRK dead." After that Kison makes a case against VRK and votes him.

I'm not sure what your point is.

Thirdly: right in the next post VRK uses some good logic to explain why lord_hur and nightson would be scum. Since our daycop said he thought they were both protown, I think these two are of the same alignment. VRK said that pop probably didn't know he was insane, therefore he concluded Nightson and LH are scum. But as we know, Nightson wasn't scum, so maybe pop knew he was insane after all, which means Lh is town. The only other explanation would be that pop didn't target both or any of these two players at all, but it looks like a pretty good cop tell to me.

Wow, this is terrible. Firstly, can you give a single example of a cop that was told they were insane? I've never seen it happen, and it seems pretty pointless to tell a cop they're insane. If you really believed populartajo investigated lord_hur, you'd be voting him, not me, and this looks like you just twisted this issue into a point against me because you already decided you'd be voting me. Secondly, I think it's highly likely from the posts that populartajo investigated Greasy Spot and found him guilty: his actions are perfectly consistent with it. I haven't FoSed anyone in a while, but this is so bad I can hardly believe it's genuine.

FoS: Lawrencelot.

[Patrick]

It's a tie between Kison and you.

Why?

I notice that in your other response, you seem to avoid responding to a few crucial points. I'll ask again: do you honestly think populartajo was an insane cop that was told he was insane? Has you ever seen that happen? I just feel like you've taken a point against lord_hur and spun in into a point against me with no reasonable justification. Even if there's a tiny chance he was told he was insane, it seems much less likely than him NOT knowing he was insane.

On top of that, I continue to think it's much more likely he investigated Greasy Spot anyway. His play makes perfect sense for that, and Greasy Spot wasn't that scummy; he was more of a compromise lynch.

[Patrick]

A) because he says that you have good logic and think the same way he does. B) he wonders why you found VRK scummy but then votes for him himself.

I don't see how either of these are a connection. Scum don't compliment each other more than average; in fact, I think he was likely doing mild buddying to me here. Point (B) - he votes VRK based on his own reasons and asks me a question about my own suspicions. I don't see what stands out to you.

I think I should clear up what I think was likely a misunderstanding about something else: I said that if you genuinely believe populartajo investigated lord_hur (which you claim you do), you should be voting lord_hur based on that, not me.

I make it about 5 days until the deadline. We need everyone giving opinions, so

Mod: Please prod dahill, vollkan and especially Jenter.

[Patrick]

This seriously baffles me. You... know that scum know people's alignment from the start (as well as each of them's roles), don't you? For example, shaft.ed got a very specular win (which he posted in that scummy awards thread) with was solely based on a scumtell about certainty. Basically, one scum was assuming one player was town in his reasoning, while he would have had no reason to know that if he were town.

None of this holds up. Even in an open game which was guaranteed to only have one scumgroup, I wouldn't usually view certainty as a scumtell (many players will overstate their certainty for better reactions or just for fun). In this game, scum pretty obviously don't know everyone's alignment from the start, because we've almost certainly got multiple scumgroups. Even if it's somehow only one scumgroup, scum may be looking for rival scum.

Anyway, you've been avoiding this, but I still want you address the argument I made earlier about your accusation that I'm an SK. SK's generally have a hard time as it is; do you really think an SK would be introduced into this game on day 1? It would have to get through multiple occurences of player turnover, and would almost certainly be killed long before the end of the game. I bring this up because you've been repeating alot of, "Kill Patrick and take away a nightkill!"

[Patrick]

... Most of this is at least partially wrong in my opinion, but anyway, what's your point? Well, except trying to belittle me to get people to back you up even more?

Once vollkan brought it up, and you responded, I noticed it as a fairly vague reason by you to be suspicious of remus. Your response here doesn't do much for me either: your main reason for finding "certainty" to be a scumtell is that scum know everyone's alignments; but that doesn't apply in this game, so your attack on him was flawed. If something is "at least partially wrong" you can explain why.

Repeating a lot of? I won't reread my own posts for this, but I'm pretty sure I only said that two very consecutive times, stop making things up. But maybe you're overfocusing over this one worrying thing?

I like how you refuse to read your own posts to check it whilst simultaneously accuse me of making things up. Classy. Anyway, I count 3 times, with underlining in the latest case. My point is you've been repeating that without decent backing.

1. Experimental games have design flaws ;

Yeah yeah yeah. Pretty much anything is technically possible, however unlikely. The point is to make informed guesses, and I think you know that an SK existing in day 1 of this game is pretty unlikely.

2. It is always possible that one of the newcomers was another werewolf (actually, it would explain why you're still kicking). Just as it is also possible there wasn't any. I'm not even sure *you* know.

Fair enough answer, though I wouldn't be an SK in that case.

Because I wanted to see how much you would insist to defend not yourself, but an antitown role you did not claim to be.

I did not say *you* are a SK, I said the werewolf is (and as such, werewolf-hunting should be the priority over mafia-hunting). It is *you* who slapped that wolk skin over your back, assimilated you and it, and defended it, instead of hunting for it like I tried to.

There is absolutely no reason to defend the werewolf's position (about his lynch's attractivity) unless you do it unconsciously, because you are it.

Wow, you think you can get away with this one? You've accused me a number of times of being a werewolf; reading through the filter you did it in your posts 53, 55 (where you accuse me of trying to explain away "my" gory kills), post 56, post 57, 61, 63 (indirectly) and maybe others I've missed. In several other posts you've accused me of being an SK, so it's clear you're accusing me of being a werewolf-SK. No assumptions made by me there, no "slapping werewolf skin on my back". LOL, did you think I wasn't going to bother checking your posts to expose these lies?

Also, but it is secondary, you again avoid accusing me of being it. I am quite sure that not once have you said I might be the werewolf, while it would have been the most obvious defense against my accusations. Maybe are you still thinking you can pretend tomorrow that there never was a werewolf, perhaps at the cost of a no-nightkill play? I sure hope that they will not be fooled by it and hang you good tomorrow, if you do manage to get me lynched today.

I've said multiple times that I think you're scum (and we know that my definition of scum is any anti-town role). In my isolated post 20 I also said that the only way you can be town is if the vengeful vig was behind the gory attacks (if not, then it must be you). Even if I don't say "lord_hur is a werewolf" that hardly means I'm dismissing it. And working out exactly what flavour of scum you are at this point isn't terribly important; more important is that you die.

[Patrick]

Question: if we lynch one of Patrick and lord_hur, and that person comes up town, should we lynch the other or look for scum in the players that joined today? (assuming nothing extraordinary happens) This has to be answered before we lynch one of them, because if the question is "don't lynch the other" then the second question is "why would we lynch one of them today?". Man I have no idea if I'm making any sense right now...

If I'm lynched today, lord_hur should definitely be lynched. I'm somewhat surprised to see you asking this question, because earlier you seemed to say that one of myself/lord_hur must definitely be scum.

[Patrick]

Thanks for missing the point completely. Of course I accused you of being the werewolf, since it is not me. But you did not simply dismiss the point about that SK thing thinking "I am not the werewolf, so I don't care" : you actually defended the werewolf role.

Is your argument against me based on my not being entirely sure the claw killer is scum? I brought up the vengeful vig possibility yes, and I've already noted that you brought it up before I did.

By the way, sorry for the multiple posts, but I'd like Patrick in particular to comment on this last post of mine. I do not want him to get away with my lynch (in case he gets me lynched, of course).

Well, it's cute how you're trying your hardest to get me lynched tomorrow even after you come up scum today. I've already said that if you're town I'll be lynched tomorrow if not nightkilled tonight.

[Patrick]

Do you agree that one of us is necessarily a werewolf, ie an anti-town claw killer?

Not necessarily. I've made that obvious in my posts have I not?

By the way, that line of questioning makes it obvious you're scum. If you were protown, you wouldn't need any assurance beyond "If I'm lynched today as town Patrick is lynched tomorrow". The fact that you're trying to cover scenarios where you're lynched and turn up scum makes it clear you're scum.

[Patrick]

Umm reading the death scene's it should be obvious with anyone with half a brain that there is some wolf type in the game.

Insult not appreciated.

Why do you still believe there is no wolf?

How did you translate not being 100% certain into "there is no wolf"? I think lord_hur is a wolf, and the fact that he slipped in the possibility that me and him could be two werewolves distancing only makes me happier with that. I've had jolts of doubt about that, despite your implication that that leaves me with less than half a brain and despite the fact it's been obvious lord_hur would try to use them against me.

Now though, like I've said, lord_hur's last few posts are all argued from a scum perspective.

[Patrick]

I did say it in the post before that, so even if you disagree with it, it can hardly be "unsubstantiated slander". Reposted:

By the way, that line of questioning makes it obvious you're scum. If you were protown, you wouldn't need any assurance beyond "If I'm lynched today as town Patrick is lynched tomorrow". The fact that you're trying to cover scenarios where you're lynched and turn up scum makes it clear you're scum.

[Patrick]

The other option would be (obviously from my perspective) that lord_hur is another flavour of scum. That would require the vengeful vigilante role to be performing the gory kills, but the flavour just seems too brutal for that.

[Patrick]

Meh. It's obvious I'm going to be lynched today, so I'm just going to get down as many thoughts as I can. Whilst everyone will presumably see them as scum trying WIFOM tricks or whatever, I urge people to at least take them on board when I'm revealed as innocent.

I'm pretty certain that the gory kills come from the vengeful vigilante role. Both the victims voted ashmite, and Dasquian was ashmite's top suspect (and, if my theory of how the role works is correct, DGB was the only player available for ashmite to kill). There is no werewolf, so when I'm dead, don't continue chasing one, obv.

Brief thoughts on other players. My feeling is that if lord_hur had any scumbuddies about, they would have been inclined to try to get me lynched rather than bus him: I think even lord_hur and co think I'm a werewolf at this point, so by getting me lynched, they'd eliminate someone they saw as rival scum and get lord_hur off the hook he was on (although not completely cleared obv).

elvis_knits: Decently fits the profile. Very one sided approach on entering the game, first few posts seem to be all about one post of mine (which she glossed over?) After that, posts are pretty much all attacking me and defending lord_hur. Backing the wrong horse need not be inherently scummy, but not a very thorough or fair analysis of the game at all by elvis.

Lawrencelot: Voted me for reasons I still don't like. Reason (1) could have been legit (albeit nothing for me to respond too), reason (2) seemed fairly empty and reason (3) about the insane cop was awful, and looked like he'd decided he was voting me and then just tried to manufacture evidence. Withdrew his vote for me when it looked like I was gaining the upper hand (after vollkan was supporting me) and then hammered lord_hur. Decent mafia candidate based on that pattern of play. Only other note is that he floated the question of whether one of lord_hur or myself had to be scum at all, after previously stating that it was safe to assume at least one was. Not necessarily a problem but would still like him to explain that.

Litral: Reads as mildly town to me. Didn't seem especially conscious of the opportunity to set me up as a day 4 lynch (which I'd expect mafia to be more keenly aware of). Not much clue about his request to post numbers: I'd mainly judge whether or not to follow that based on your read of him, mine is that I think he's unlikely to be mafia.

farside: voted lord_hur, reasons didn't especially impress me, then again, at that point she could have gone with the momentum and voted me, putting it at 4-2, so lowers the chance of her being mafia. Don't like her extreme narrow-mindedness about the nightkills, but I can't really decide whether it's bothering me as scummy or I just don't like it because I'm the victim.

TonyMontana: only real note is that he's done very little. Voted lord_hur when hur was looking the worst of the two yesterday, voting me as the obvious lynch for today. Needs to post content rather than just voting.

forbiddanlight: again, not much I can say. Predecessor just seemed to flake, and she hasn't yet done anything that makes me lean in any direction. Neutral, basically just need more info.

And then there's the two new arrivals, again, pretty much blank slates for me. That list of players was written in no particular order, but the scummiest two are elvis and Lawrencelot. I'm a vanilla townie. I accept that I'm a necessary lynch barring a scenario where someone has investigative evidence that proves I'm telling the truth. I'll field any questions and elaborate on any suspicions as best I can, not especially interested in further defending myself unless it's taken seriously, which it clearly isn't. Just take at least some notice of what I've said tomorrow, and don't let anyone coast through the game.

[Patrick]

farside, on day 1, only DGB and Greasy Spot voted ashmite. Greasy Spot was lynched, so that only left DGB as a target for the vengeful vig (assuming the role works how I suspect). On day 2, ashmite was lynched by Patrick, Dasquian, lord_hur and remussaidow, and I think he had to choose which one of those to get his vengeance on. I think he killed Dasquian because Dasquian was clearly his top suspect. Vigs do

not

always kill with guns, that's been proven, but I realise the flavour is suspect anyway; that's why I'm getting votes.

[Patrick]

A role that can kill someone immediately after their death is called a vengeful townie. Ashmite was not a vengeful townie.

[Patrick]

Also vig mauling someone still does not fit.

The flavour in this game is obviously not typical. Mnowax was a protown dayvig, yet he killed by stabbing people in the face, his victims showed up "murdered" and his rolename was "crazed maniac". Do you think

that

fits for vig flavour?

Also, I'm fairly sure the following was ashmite breadcrumbing his role:

I've never heard of a screwball role.

From the flavour the first thought is that she was killed by some sort of scumgroup but in this game you never know. Could be some sort of vig that is made to sound like scum.

Re-reading Nightson and DGB....

[Patrick]

Interestingly enough the belief that ashmite as the vig didn't come up. He does mention the vengeful vig in this comment, but even he is aware of the kill that took place.

Er. Yesterday lord_hur was a candidate for the mauling kills. Now it's clear he isn't. You don't think it's reasonable for my stance to change in light of that?

Where have you seen vengeful vig with a discription used like BM has used? Never mind found the answer to that question. However each scene in that game was different. This one had no difference in scenes so I still don't see that has possible.

Not entirely sure what you're saying, but if it's a reference to my linking to theoville, I was proving that vigs don't always kill with guns, which seems to be mistaken belief. In retrospect, I could have pointed to mnowax at that point.

Post 401 is WIFOM arguement if I ever heard one:

I don't think any lone scum would exist early in the game; it would be near impossible for them to win.

What the

so

ck. Do you know what WIFOM is? This is a balance-type argument: I really doubt that BM would put an SK role into the game early. There would just be too much player turnover for it to have a hope in hell of surviving.

Post 406: Why would you think the kill was protown. You keep saying it as a protown kill.

You're changing what I said. I said it was removed as any possibility that lord_hur had made either nightkill as a protown role, I didn't say it was likely.

Post 408: That just makes no sense how you can come to that conclusion.

I'll need something slightly less vague.

Wow Pat was nice enough to point out his own contradictions for me:

Where's the contradiction? Again, I was leaning away from the possibility that there was a vig killing at night at the time. Now, I know it with near certainty. Is that unreasonable?

This shows that a vengeful townie kills someone after being lynched.

What shows it? Do you want a link to a venge game where a townie lynched on day 1 made his vengekill at night?

If you look at his profile you will see his last post was Aug 11th. He was hung Aug 18th and the day started aug 22. I knew he had been MIA for a bit as he replaced in another game. He wasn't replaced here so Patrick's theory of ashmite no longer holds water.

That's terrible logic. The fact that he lost interest in his games doesn't mean he didn't send in a nightchoice. This is very unreliable type of evidence that I've never seen work out well, and yet you're declaring it as though it blows the whole thing out of the water.

Seriously, explain why you just analysed my posts seemingly assuming from the start that I'm scum, instead of with an open mind. Yesterday I thought the nightkill probably wasn't a vig, now I think it was because it wasn't lord_hur. That makes sense if I'm scum, but it also makes just as much sense if I'm town, and the way you happily gloss over that and try to paint me as contradicting myself is dreadful.

[Patrick]

Also are you really going to tell me that ashmite who is mia since Aug 11th and has not been back when come in a send a PM to the mod? Rly?

Yes? Players often flake due to laziness, and the first symptom is that they can't be bothered to post in their games. Sending in a choice is much easier than catching up in a game where you're behind or can't be bothered, and it's also possible for players to send in provisional choices early. Your argument is nothing like as decisive as you're presenting it to be.

don't think any lone scum would exist early in the game; it would be near impossible for them to win.

is WIFOM. Don't f#$%ing act like you didn't notice it.

No, it's an argument based on game balance. There's nothing invalid about those: for example, in a mini normal game which contains a dead doctor, cop, tracker and vig, you could reasonably make the argument that the game will have more than 2 scum for balance reasons. In this case, for balance reasons, I don't believe BM would put an SK into the game on day 1, because it's chance of winning would be close to zero. I want you to explain exactly why you're just waving your WIFOM wand to dismiss this. Don't dodge a second time.

I think of it as back peddling.

This is insane. In mafia, players change their views as they get more information, that's not the same as backpeddling. Yesterday I thought that those kills were unlikely to be caused by the vengeful vig because I thought it was lord_hur. Now that it's clear lord_hur didn't make perform those kills, I think it was the vengeful vig. To be clear, that, in your opinion, is backtracking?

Also you are missing the point that a vengeful vig if you look it ups only kills the person that lynches them. They typically choose a person that lynches them.

But again, you're acting as though ashmite's role was vengeful townie. It wasn't, it was vengeful vig, and yet, you seem to be assuming it's the same role. I do think ashmite was able to choose someone who voted him.

and ashmite's absence since Aug 11th tells me nothing could have been sent to the mod. If he had then I would suspect other PM's to other mod's letting them know he was going away and I know that hasn't happened.

Really? If ashmite sent his choice in during night, he wouldn't need to send any PMs saying he'd be absent, since he wouldn't be required to continue posting. I also think that if he'd sent PMs near the end of the day saying he was disappearing, BM would have held off on replacing him, since he was looking like the lynch of the day, or at least, a good possibility.

[Patrick]

I agree that I was lazy when replacing into this game. I saw in Patrick an odd treatment of the werewolf issue and seized on it. In particular, how he doesn't present that one of him or lordhur must be a werewolf (saying it maybe odd vig flavor), but then after lord hur makes hte "him or me" argument, Patrick immediately votes lord hur. If Patrick thought it was possible that neither him not lord hur were the werewolf, I would not expect him to OMGUS like that. So yeah, I didn't really pay attention to everything else Patrick was saying because I thought I had already found something crucial.

My issue with your play is actually consistent laziness and narrow mindedness. Virtually all your posts have involved attacking me whilst defending yesterday's scum, and I don't remember you commenting on any other player (and naturally, you've ignored ashmite breadcrumbing his role). I've outlined why I think potential scumbuddies of hur would have been eager to save him yesterday, but even aside from that, you're play looks like you've just found a safe point or two to continue bashing on, rather than scumhunting.

[Patrick]

From the flavour the first thought is that she was killed by some sort of scumgroup but in this game you never know. Could be some sort of vig that is made to sound like scum.

You actually think this wording by ashmite was a coincidence? Imagine for a second that he's a vig that didn't kill DGB, would his first thought out of the gates be "yeah, maybe that kill was a vig made to look like scum..." That comment by him makes pretty much no sense unless he was breadcrumbing it. He saw everyone was jumping to a wrong conclusion and he tried to nudge in the right direction.

[Patrick]

My feeling is that from the way lord_hur approached yesterday, he probably genuinely suspected I was a werewolf, although his point of view may have been exagerated. I can pick out specific parts of his posts that make me think that if really necessary, though that'd have to wait until tomorrow; it's mostly the later ones. Ashmite's post that I quoted pretty much convinces me he killed DGB, for reasons already stated, and I don't think the vengeful vig can be behind the shotgun kills because populartajo didn't vote for ashmite.

[Patrick]

Populartajo didn't vote for ashmite, so I don't think ashmite could have killed him. It's also not exactly uncommon for a scum kill to feature two or more shots instead of one - it looks more like window dressing here.

[Patrick]

Yet the doc was shot only once. Yes keep digging that grave. I'm still waiting to hear from others on their thoughts.

Eh? What does this have to do with anything? It was made pretty clear that Dasquian was killed by two groups by the description dismembered and shotgunned. Are you telling me you think ashmite killed populartajo on night 1? I don't buy that you actually believe that to be the case.

I'm kinda interested in all these backtracks myself.

Which ones are those again?

Why do you presume to know so much about ash's role anyway Patrick? I mean, I don't see any connection, but it's odd that you'll use something you really don't know anything about to defend yourself.

Put yourself in my position as town. What other plausible theory is there? I certainly can't see any other way it could have happened.

Assuming I'm lynched today, just kill elvis tomorrow if she's still around. She looks ever inch a scumbag.

[Patrick]

How do you explain one night with 2 gun shots and another night with one gun shot?

Why does it need some special explanation? I think the two shots to tajo came from the same gun (which is why it just says he was shotgunned). I don't for a second believe that he was killed by two seperate parties (Das was and it was made obvious from the description).

[Patrick]

Well, yeah, except you probably aren't town. Ash wasn't around to maim, and I still doubt you get a night action after death :S.

This is a dodge of what I asked you. You've said you think I'd be pushing the vengeful vig theory if I was scum. That's true. But the convenient point being missed is that it's also perfectly reasonable from the protown perspective as well. Saying "yeah but I don't think you're town" is a cop out. I'll ask you again: If I'm town, do you think it's reasonable for me to think that ashmite killed those players? A straight answer this time please. The accusation that I'm backtracking holds no water - my stance changed significantly because of significant new information. In fact, I'm not sure how it couldn't have changed.

[Patrick]

In that case, I don't see how it's reasonable to accuse me of backtracking.

[Patrick]

As any alignment it's obvious I'm going to cling onto the only plausible theory where I'm innocent. I don't see how I can be clinging onto it too much.

[Patrick]

I don't see the big deal about ashmite's posting dropping off - not posting isn't the same thing as not around. Even now his sig claims limited access, not a crisis forcing him to leave entirely. I think he was still around and couldn't be bothered to post (he did mention he was having difficulties drawing conclusions).

venge kill during the night AFTER death?

Killing after death is not a big deal when your role has vengeful in it's name. Killing at night is what most "vigilante" roles do (distinct from the seperate role dayvigilante obv).

[Patrick]

I'm sorry, I didn't catch the whole vengeful part (as in had to read up on the role) and isn't it blatantly obvious that ashmite killed DGB and Dasquian?
I see the argument for a wolf, but not an explanation for a ashmites role in that scenario...

And that would be L-1, yes. I agree that Patrick is the lynch for today. There scenario he proposes where he's innocent just doesn't hold water.

What changed from "it's blatantly obvious ashmite killed DGB and Dasquian" to "the scenario he proposes where he's innocent just doesn't hold water?" You proposed the scenario where I'm innocent too - in fact you seemed to imply it was very likely.

[Patrick]

I think I'm at lynch-1, so to update a few thoughts on those that have been posting: I don't necessarily think farside is scum despite a number of unreasonable arguments. I think if she's town she's just reading the game with confirmation bias, and in that case I'd recommend her to be more open-minded if she's alive tomorrow. I've seen her playing aggressively as scum before in PYP3 so don't rule her out solely for aggressive play, but I think there're several better candidates out there.

forbiddanlight seems reasonably scummy so far. She's doing ALOT of hanging on farside's coattails; on my quick look at her posts I don't see her posting original content. Mild feeling of buddying up to farside from her, which I think means they're unlikely to be scum together. Very sketchy sheeping of farside's "backtracking" point. The only real caveat I have is that she hasn't been in the game that long so could just be slow getting into it, but keep an eye on her. Force her to produce content.

elvis is probably scum, and would be my recommendation for lynching tomorrow as things stand. I expect her to try to put the blame on me tomorrow for my lynch or to try to wash her hands of it somehow, but I still don't think she's playing in a protown fashion at all. Deflected the lord_hur lynch and has basically only attacked me all game (an easy target). I think she's trying to avoid antagonising other players to reduce the chances of being lynched and reduce the chances of being nightkilled by potential rival scum. Shows no apparent interest in a good portion of the arguments made (not just today, but all game) and generally not much scumhunting at all.

TonyMontana unvoted me when there was still easy pressure against me, which is something I think scum would be less likely to do. His revote is sketchy, pending possible explanation. Might be town, but still not much data.

Lawrencelot still reasonably scummy, mostly for his actions yesterday. His vote for me today is fairly meh; it kind of ducks out of making any real points. Not sure whether he's still my 2nd suspect or if forbiddanlight has taken that spot.

[Patrick]

1) I didn't say you'd blame other players, nor did I mention any track record, so that seems irrelevant. I said you'd try to paint it as my fault tomorrow, and I pointed out why I don't think any such defence should fly.

2) We have zero completed games together. With this, you're referencing a single ongoing game (which is unethical and pretty much useless as evidence).

I don't really buy your reason for not attacking others very much. Yesterday was full onfinformation about several players, especially with a known scum lynched. I've also been trying to force people to talk today because I think it might help later in the game.

[Patrick]

No, I've already explained why I think in that particular situation, deflecting would be a more likely tactic than busing. Simply calling it absurd doesn't do anything for me. If it's absurd, you'll have no problem telling me why.

[Patrick]

Yes, I could see a buddy of his switching when the tide turned against him, that's what I see Lawrencelot as possibly having done. I also don't have a problem believing a buddy might have acted in the way you did at that point.

[Patrick]

Well, if we're following the plan of having one of every item in the game, someone just needs to buy vodka shots. Litral seems to be in the best position. I'll just go with beer unless someone suggests any new plan. Hate the stuff though.

If we are lynching someone other than me, we have to decide by the 27th. My 3 main suspects haven't really changed.

He was the first (and maybe only) person not afraid of Litral or suspicious of the "quote a number for me please" thing.

If Tony is scum and knows litral is not on his buddy, he has good reason not to be afraid of litral.

I can see this, but at the same time I can see it cutting the other way too; if Tony is scum who knows Litral is not his buddy, he could very well be afraid of Litral's ability helping the town in some way, and might be hesitant to support it.

Mod

: Please prod Litral.

[Patrick]

Buy a pint of beer.

Bleagh.

[Patrick]

So, suppose in theory the item I had was able to vig someone. Would anyone oppose to me smashing Patrick over the head? Or is there any other request for me to kill?

What changed between this and your last comment on me?

[Patrick]

Well, if that's it for me, then you have my thoughts out there. Still recommend getting forbiddanlight to put some real content out there; don't let her continue to leech off of farside. The argument she used to vig me didn't make a whole lot of sense either: a directed dayvigging is effectively the same as lynching, so I don't see how "we won't have to waste a lynch on him" fits in.

My other suspects remain as stated, not sure on the order. If Lawrencelot is unable to actually post for today then I'd hesitate to lynch him and maybe go for another candidate. Fonz and SSK need to post a wider range of opinions too; Fonz defending me might be a point in his favour but I wouldn't hang my hat on it.

[Patrick]

I'm not sure why the risk of keeping me alive would increase the longer I'm around - if I was scum in a group then you'd essentially be depriving my group of it's nightkill (or it would kill and I'd be killed the next day).

The other argument about the vig choice not being scum influenced if you alone choose it is double edged, even if we assume you're town. A group decision could be manipulated by scum, but also gives more to analyse in a way kind of like how a regular lynch would. You can look for who supported a town or scum vigging and try to determine their alignments etc.

*Shrug* there's arguments on both sides of it, so it's not a terrible choice, but I find it interesting that you didn't really wait for opinions apart from elvis.

[Patrick]

As for depriving your group of a scumkill, does that matter as long as you stay alive to suddenly screw us in endgame?

It's a strategic point. If I was part of a scumgroup, then it would be less dangerous than normal scum because of the need to hold back the kill each night (or kill and give up on me). Not completely harmless, sure, but less of a threat than usual. You talk about endgame as though it's just round the corner; speaking to BM, I think there'll be at least one more batch of players arriving.

Your decision to vig immediately bothers me less than the way you've been coasting and sheeping through the game, but it still seemed rather sudden.

[Patrick]

Scratch the bit about another batch likely arriving, as BM was vaguer than I remembered about this. It's possible 22 is our max (or 23 if we count the Landlord as a player).

[Patrick]

Also, mislynching Patrick was good times. It... just... feels... so... good.

I resent this. I'm just glad I got lord_hur lynched first before dying; I had to pretend I thought he was a werewolf, but towards the end of the day he was looking far more like mafia.

Wasn't that me vigging? Totally not a mislynch

Until the part where I found ashmite's breadcrumb, I wouldn't have believed my own story either X_X.

[Patrick]

Oh yep, I speculated on that after you turned up mafia bookie What would you get for betting right?

[Patrick]

This was an interesting game. I don't feel brave enough to comment on balance.