Mystery Mafia 2- Game Over! But who won!?


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Post Post #375 (ISO) » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:03 am

Post by Vel-Rahn Koon »

Messed up the quoting, sorry.
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Post Post #376 (ISO) » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:45 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Tick...Tick...Tick...
KABOOM!


Kison chuckled maniacally. His plan had come into perfect fruition. After his eventual release from a Swiss Prison, he had returned for one last kill. Turns out, he was in luck!


Kison - Human Bomb, Exploded, Day 3


Vel-Rahn Koon let out a yelp. He had suddenly realised what was going on, but unfortunately, it was too late. He'd done his best, but his best hadn't been good enough on this occassion, and he was to pay the ultimate price.


Vel-Rahn Koon - Radiation Suit Salesman, Shattered into tiny pieces, Day 3


Remussaidow, meanwhile, hadn't noticed the explosion. He was too busy coating himself with an ample dose of petrol and other various flammable liquids. With all his investigative training, he never saw it coming.


Remussaidow - Cop, Burnt to a crisp, Day 3


Mnowax hadn't made the same mistake. He'd been clever, or so he thought, by purchasing a 'Bomb-Proof' Suit. Unfortunately, he'd also been standing right beside Kison when the Bomb went off, and sadly, no amount of protection is enough from that proximity.


Mnowax - Crazed Maniac, Blown Up, Day 3


Patrick and Lord Hur saw this carnage, and wanted none of it! They took Patrick's jeep and waited the explosion out in an almost suspiciously welcoming cave.

When they returned, the flames had been put out, but the woodland village was looking an utter wreck. Lucky then, that there was a whole Bus-Load of new arrivals to help with the clean-up operation!

Let's hear a warm welcome for...

Elvis Knits!

...

Litral!

...

Vollkan!

...

Jenter Brolincali!

...

Dahill1!

...

Lawrencelot!

and...

Farside22!

Good Luck to all of you.


It is STILL Day 3. With 9 of you alive, 5 votes will lynch. Due to the clean-up operation, the VoteCount has been reset, and you have 13 days to get acquainted and then lynch a fool.

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Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #377 (ISO) » Fri Aug 29, 2008 5:45 am

Post by farside22 »

Hi everyone. Lots of reading to do. Unfortunately I will be on V/LA from 08/30 - 09/01. I will be reading this when I come back from vacation. If I have time I will do thru this today.
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.
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Post Post #378 (ISO) » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:45 am

Post by elvis_knits »

I am here!
Talk nerdy to me.

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Post Post #379 (ISO) » Fri Aug 29, 2008 11:22 am

Post by dahill1 »

hello everybody!
L_H and patrick, any reason you think you are still alive? also, Kison was scum? all it says was that he was a bomb but it's colored in red like the other scum are
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Post Post #380 (ISO) » Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:10 pm

Post by Patrick »

Those arguments turned my tired brain to mush. I'm thinking VRK is on drugs. But now seriously, on looking at populartajo's posts, I'm surprised nobody seems to have mentioned the possibility that he investigated Greasy Spot. He mentioned that he was curious about Greasy, then voted him and refused to move it, whilst also setting up a future lynch for when Greasy turns up scum. That looks to me like he investigated him and got a guilty, or at least, it seems the most likely scenario.

I'm feeling kind of confused right now. Everyone except lord hur has a clean slate in my eyes, and at first I thought he almost has to be scum. (For a start, if lord hur is town, that means we had all townies throughout day 2. But BM has said that new players are introduced pre-determined intervals, so I guess this could be viable).
dahill wrote:L_H and patrick, any reason you think you are still alive? also, Kison was scum? all it says was that he was a bomb but it's colored in red like the other scum are
As to why we're still alive, it's because we haven't been lynched or nightkilled or daykilled yet. Not sure what you were looking for. I'm currently assuming Kison was scum because of the colour of the role reveal.
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Post Post #381 (ISO) » Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:15 pm

Post by dahill1 »

Patrick wrote:
dahill wrote:L_H and patrick, any reason you think you are still alive? also, Kison was scum? all it says was that he was a bomb but it's colored in red like the other scum are
As to why we're still alive, it's because we haven't been lynched or nightkilled or daykilled yet. Not sure what you were looking for. I'm currently assuming Kison was scum because of the colour of the role reveal.
well everyone else that was in the game beforehand died from the bomb besides you two.
it seemed weird that certain people died and other didn't
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Post Post #382 (ISO) » Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:39 pm

Post by vollkan »

Hey everyone,

I'll read up and post my thoughts shortly.
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Post Post #383 (ISO) » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:36 pm

Post by lord_hur »

Well, I think I understand why those three died, except that there are two possible inconsistencies in my reasoning. Maybe you can help me iron them out.

Kison came into the game saying that he needed people to say "Hiroshima" for him to stay alive. Three people obliged : the same that were killed. I think a direct relation can be made.

On the other side, VRK was a radiation suit salesman, which I think was a counter for Kison's powerful role. He tried to make one people say "Nagasaki" (Kison, ironically), but mnowax said it and received a bomob-poof suit, at BM's scene says. The two inconsistencies are these :

- mnowax, despite saying "Nagasaki", was killed anyway;
- VRK, if he was aware of his role, should have immediately known that Kison had the bomb he was the counter to (Nagasaki/Hiroshima ?), but then BM would have thought about it, so VRK was likely only informed partially of his role ; still, he knew that he was town and that the theme of Hiroshima/Nagasaki was likely about bombs, so he should have made the link...


Now, to more pressing matters :

We know that there are two anti-town forces : those who claw/dismember people (werewolf for short), and those who shoot people (mafia).

Since Dasquian was both dismembered and shot night 2, the werewolf was still alive then. And since all 4 people who just died couldn't have been him, the werewolf is still alive now.

So I think a :
Vote : Patrick
is in order.

Patrick is likely to vote me in return, since I'm the only other "survivor".
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Post Post #384 (ISO) » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:44 pm

Post by lord_hur »

dahill1 wrote:also, Kison was scum? all it says was that he was a bomb but it's colored in red like the other scum are
He was anti-town at least (usually in BM games, all anti-town are painted in red). That said, I think he's mafia, because :

- there are already two anti-town forces ;
- I can't see what his victory condition would be if he was independant.
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Post Post #385 (ISO) » Sat Aug 30, 2008 12:21 am

Post by Patrick »

lord hur wrote:We know that there are two anti-town forces : those who claw/dismember people (werewolf for short), and those who shoot people (mafia).
I take it you're not claiming any kind of vig role then. The only possibility I can think of that allows you to be town is if the vengeful vig role is a role that can kill people who voted it (though that would require it to be killing in a gory way and to be able to kill in revenge the night after it gets lynched.)

I'll go with a
Vote: lord_hur
, as I think the best explanation for night events so far is that he's scum, rather than the vengeful vig killing or some other weirdness than I haven't thought of.
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Post Post #386 (ISO) » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:26 am

Post by lord_hur »

Hmm Patrick... to clarify your claim a bit, in your opinion, which side do you think caused :

- the 2 gun shots
- the 2 gory attacks

Though your vengeful vig theory is interesting and would almost explain your kills if there wasn't this gory kill component, which is incompatible with a vig's gunshot.

I see that you inspected your cover options thoroughly, and also that you didn't rule this one out completely because you are so desperate that even the faintest escape route is worth keeping open.

By the way, you should give up, Patrick. Even if you do get me lynched today, there is no way you can make it to the endgame. That explosion was terrible for town, but it was even worse for you, as I am the only bush left you can hide behind, and you have to bring me down because I know your role.

I wish you could see the big smile I have on my face right now, Patrick.
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Post Post #387 (ISO) » Sat Aug 30, 2008 3:05 am

Post by Patrick »

lord_hur wrote:- the 2 gun shots
- the 2 gory attacks

Though your vengeful vig theory is interesting and would almost explain your kills if there wasn't this gory kill component, which is incompatible with a vig's gunshot.
The shotgun attacks can't have been the work of a vengeful vig, because populartajo didn't vote for ashmite, so they must be coming from scum. It's fairly mafia-ish type flavour, so I could see those kills being from mafia (which would have to be you from my pov). Alternatively, those kills came from DGB then Kison (I'm thinking those guys aren't aligned with Alabaska at least due to rolenames).

The gory attacks could be coming from a werewolf scumgroup or from the vengeful vig. Unusual kill flavours for vigs have certainly been used before, but I think it's quite unlikely. The only scenario I can think of where you're town is if the gory attacks are from the vengeful vig and the if the shotgun kills came from DGB/Kison. I don't think that's likely, to the point where I'm happy to say that if you're lynched today and somehow show up town, I'll accept my fate the following day if still alive.
lord_hur wrote:I see that you inspected your cover options thoroughly, and also that you didn't rule this one out completely because you are so desperate that even the faintest escape route is worth keeping open.
This is just empty rhetoric - it makes sense for me to consider all the possibilities as any alignment, not just as scum, which your post here seems to imply. Note that I brought up the type of reasoning we're both using here in my Post 340, so I'm hardly shying away from it.
lord_hur wrote:By the way, you should give up, Patrick. Even if you do get me lynched today, there is no way you can make it to the endgame. That explosion was terrible for town, but it was even worse for you, as I am the only bush left you can hide behind, and you have to bring me down because I know your role.
Empty again. I want to get you lynched because I think you're scum and lynching you today helps the town more than being lynched myself and only lynching you the following day (and if we're somehow both town, I doubt it matters what order we die in). Even I was scum it would make no sense for me to just give up, so this quote by you just seems like an attempt to look protown.
lord_hur wrote:I wish you could see the big smile I have on my face right now, Patrick.
lol, now you're really overdoing it.
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Post Post #388 (ISO) » Sat Aug 30, 2008 5:10 am

Post by lord_hur »

Patrick wrote:Alternatively, those kills came from DGB then Kison (I'm thinking those guys aren't aligned with Alabaska at least due to rolenames).
This reasoning on rolenames is quite bad : are you saying that only town got those awesome roles, and that scum would be restricted to only standard goons? That would be pretty unbalanced against them, don't you think?

Also, BM said that Kison "had returned for a last kill". This is a pretty strong hint that he was of the same alignment than in the previous game (which was scum).

And finally, there is still no hint of a second scum group. Only one shotgun kill (1 mafia group) and one mauling per night.
Patrick wrote:Unusual kill flavours for vigs have certainly been used before, but I think it's quite unlikely.
Do you have an example in mind? I must admit I'm pretty new compared to you, and I have never read a game featuring this.
Patrick wrote:lol, now you're really overdoing it.
Yes, when I reread my post I thought it was pretty strong. But I left it there because it is what I felt.
Patrick wrote:I want to get you lynched because I think you're scum and lynching you today helps the town more than being lynched myself and only lynching you the following day (and if we're somehow both town, I doubt it matters what order we die in).
You are so very wrong. The order does matter. A lot. Kison had a role very un-werewolf-ish. DGB was killed by a werewolf (so, you). And Alabaska J was a goon for sure. So I think you're a SK. Killing you first will most likely prevent one night kill.

This is why I can die tomorrow, but not today.
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Post Post #389 (ISO) » Sat Aug 30, 2008 5:45 am

Post by Patrick »

lord_hur wrote:This reasoning on rolenames is quite bad : are you saying that only town got those awesome roles, and that scum would be restricted to only standard goons? That would be pretty unbalanced against them, don't you think?
I think anyone who is in the mafia will likely have "mafia" in their rolename. I never said they have to be all standard goons, it's quite possible there is a mafia roleblocker or godfather or some other mafia powerole.
lord_hur wrote:Also, BM said that Kison "had returned for a last kill". This is a pretty strong hint that he was of the same alignment than in the previous game (which was scum).
This is true. Not sure how it's relevant though, since his name appearing in red is an even stronger hint that he was scum.
lord_hur wrote:And finally, there is still no hint of a second scum group. Only one shotgun kill (1 mafia group) and one mauling per night.
You've completely lost me with this. No hint at a second scumgroup? You don't think two kills at night is a hint of a second scumgroup? I'm not sure what you mean by this comment.
lord_hur wrote:Do you have an example in mind? I must admit I'm pretty new compared to you, and I have never read a game featuring this.
Mafia in Theoville was the one I had in mind, where vig kill flavour was different each night (shooting, butchering then stabbing I believe).
lord_hur wrote:You are so very wrong. The order does matter. A lot. Kison had a role very un-werewolf-ish. DGB was killed by a werewolf (so, you). And Alabaska J was a goon for sure. So I think you're a SK. Killing you first will most likely prevent one night kill.
I said it probably doesn't matter if we're both town. The rest of my paragraph explains why I think it does matter, because you're likely scum.
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Post Post #390 (ISO) » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:26 am

Post by Litral »

Welcome me!

I will now read.
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Post Post #391 (ISO) » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:44 am

Post by Litral »

Okay, I read up to page 14, realize I have two days left, realized the posts were realllly long, and decided to post my mission critical data here, first.

First of all, Lord Hur is probably scum.
vote: lord_hur
. This is because I think at least one of lord_hur and Patrick is scum. If both were town, Kison would not have wanted to explode, as he didn't know whether or not there were any scum on his side coming in; he may have instantly lost the game (for his side). It could also be Patrick but I think he's townier. He made some of the most critical analysis in this game. Also I think at most one of them is scum.

Check this out:

Greasy Spot! (town)

....

PopularTajo! (town)

...

Alabaska J! (scum)

...

Lord Hur! (???)

...

Mnowax! (town)

...

Nightson! (town)

and finally...

FaerieLord! (town)

Only one scum among seven seems unlikely; it creates a pretty bad scenario for the scum especially with all the town power roles, unless you're the sort of evil mod that likes looking at paranoid people in an all-vanilla setup. Based on these two good reasons I think there are fairly good odds Lord Hur is both scum and on the same team as Kison.

I know, I'm trying to outguess the scum AND outguess the mod at the same time, but I think I'm being logical.
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He was unmasked, and strung up, but unfortunately, not in that order.
Love this flavor. Lol.

Unfortunately, most of the "scumtells" I've picked up are about ashmite, which... is indeed unfortunate.

Second of all, please do something for me.
Litral wrote:0
Add 1 every time you post - it has to be in this form, with the quote author being me. It actually starts at 1, but I can't add it myself. It has to reach some number I don't know. And you have to post actual content with this - you can't just post this. Also, if you think you can do something that will increase the number but get mith on you, don't do it.

If you doubt me, I have two arguments for you. First argument: Why would scum get such a roundabout, ridiculous role? They could just get their partners to count for them. Second argument: I'm pro-town, as I will clearly demonstrate as I continue posting.

Help me help the town.

For obvious reasons I won't comment on any other player alive.
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Post Post #392 (ISO) » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:21 pm

Post by lord_hur »

Sigh. Thanks for not reading what I'm bothering to post. Again, the important today is to get the werewolf.

So you think I'm scum. Fine, but even if you're right, killing me now will not prevent a night kill, while killing him will.

So, kill him now, and kill me tomorrow, or refutate my arguments.

That is all.
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Post Post #393 (ISO) » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:43 pm

Post by lord_hur »

Litral wrote:For obvious reasons I won't comment on any other player alive.
At this exact moment, I am not understanding obvious things at all.



And I'm quite reluctant to oblige someone I don't know anything about. Your two "reasons" are meaning nothing right now (you could be scum if BM just ruled that he won't count scum augmentations).

However, there is one thing that could convince me that at least the mechanics you claim are genuine (for all we know, you could be scum faking a role) : I had a quite similar role in one of BM's previous games, and I think that BM would follow the same role basic pattern. Can anyone tell me if :
Litral wrote:Also, if you think you can do something that will increase the number but get mith on you, don't do it.
is, as I think, a way to circumvent a posting restriction ruling that Litral cannot say that people cannot use double posts to increase the counter?
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Post Post #394 (ISO) » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:59 pm

Post by lord_hur »

Well, sorry about the multiple posts.

After a bit of thinking, I now suspect that your role might be fake. I cannot see it being viable unless there is at least one extra rule about incrementation that you didn't tell us about.

Of course, I am not going to tell you what it is right now. So could you confirm us if there is another such rule? I will explain my reasoning right after.
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Post Post #395 (ISO) » Sun Aug 31, 2008 12:06 am

Post by Litral »

I read what you said. Still there's probably no such role as a single lone human bomb (since it'd be very difficult to judge when it would win), so he probably had a partner who was alive. Instead of saying I didn't read anything you said, you could refute my arguments, since my arguments don't relate to what you said earlier.

The "obvious thing" is that you two are the only people alive who have posted enough content to comment about, I commented on you two, I can't really comment on anyone else :P

You
could
, of course, give a plausible scenario under which Kison had no buddies alive and still decided to explode. Yes, I think the "keep me alive" thing was fake - the flavor is wrong, a much more concise way to write his role would be "two people must post Hiroshima every 48 hours for you to stay alive"; the "one person would give me one real life day" thing is just a meaningless addition which makes the whole role sound fake.
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Post Post #396 (ISO) » Sun Aug 31, 2008 12:07 am

Post by Litral »

There is another rule about incrementation, but it's rather loose, so if you just follow what I said it doesn't matter.
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Post Post #397 (ISO) » Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:01 am

Post by lord_hur »

Patrick wrote:
lord_hur wrote:Also, BM said that Kison "had returned for a last kill". This is a pretty strong hint that he was of the same alignment than in the previous game (which was scum).
This is true. Not sure how it's relevant though, since his name appearing in red is an even stronger hint that he was scum.
lord_hur wrote:And finally, there is still no hint of a second scum group. Only one shotgun kill (1 mafia group) and one mauling per night.
You've completely lost me with this. No hint at a second scumgroup? You don't think two kills at night is a hint of a second scumgroup? I'm not sure what you mean by this comment.
Ah, I think we have different definitions of "scum". For me, scum = mafia, and only mafia.
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Post Post #398 (ISO) » Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:13 am

Post by lord_hur »

Litral wrote:I read what you said.
And chose to ignore it completely. I see
Litral wrote:Still there's probably no such role as a single lone human bomb (since it'd be very difficult to judge when it would win), so he probably had a partner who was alive.
As you said yourself, there is also the possibility that he was alone *in that part of the game*. But this is of no importance right now.
Litral wrote:Instead of saying I didn't read anything you said, you could refute my arguments, since my arguments don't relate to what you said earlier.
You definitely don't read what I write. I said I don't much care about defending myself from being scum :
the only thing I want is to get Patrick killed today so we get one less NK
.

Although your argument about Patrick being useful is of no importance, since he is werewolf. He could have helped town against scum all he wanted, without any consequence. Now if you found any hint of him working against what I claim is his side, we would talk.

And well, might as well be complete in my defense : as someone else said, arguments about anti-town numbers in 7 people are pretty useless, since :

1. more players were introduced day 1 ;
2. there are 18 players total.
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Post Post #399 (ISO) » Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:30 am

Post by lord_hur »

Litral wrote:There is another rule about incrementation, but it's rather loose, so if you just follow what I said it doesn't matter.
Do you claim to be forbidden to tell us about it? As I said, it could help me (and maybe others) much deciding that your claim isn't faked, and if it is what I think it is, I cannot see how it would hurt town.
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