Large Normal 231 | Etymologies | Game Over

[Andresvmb]

It’s like almost always Hayker here. I can’t find any other alternative that’s reasonable.

[Andresvmb]

Chk's roleclaim seems ridiculous. Doesn't even matter what I think of Titus anymore. Highly dislike all the name calling and insults. attack the play not the player.

Chk what are your investigations please. preferably before fade.

Vanilla Townie here. Glad Chk died in the night. Now where do we go from here. bina is almost certainly town. Would have to be another big gambit to not be. Would not be worth I think for mafia to try. Titus was too self confident in her reads. Even so I want to consider at least BB on her list of targets.

Luca Blight, Binatog13, Andresvmb, NorwegianboyEE, Momrangal, Gamma Emerald, DrippingGoofball

These are the final votes on Titus. From there I can whittle down to norwegian, andres, GE, Luca, mom, in that order of my suspicians.

VOTE: norwegianboy

Does Hayker fit as the SK? Maybe?

[Andresvmb]

If I'm right about BBMolla/Momrangal then PlusJOYED is probably also scum due to the fact they didn't go anywhere near his wagon D1 when it was competing with NM, when it would have been so easy to push there.

It's particularly weird how BBMolla wanted a lurker elim, but never showed any interest in PlusJOYED, the biggest lurker of all, D1.

Luca is full of posts like this.

[Andresvmb]

I can see a natural Townbloc emerging here:

Norwegian, DGB, Quiet, myself, maybe Gamma?

Andres, if he's able to reconcile this with his reads.

I think Vax is Town as well, but will need to review that quickly.

Vax has towntold numerous times, I feel pretty good about that TR.

Interesting.

[Andresvmb]

I'm not scumreading BBMolla for his AtE.

Well, I guess I am partially, but I was already hard SR'ing him before he ever AtE'd. Please catch-up properly before dismissing that wagon.

Conf-Town:

Binatog

Almost conf-town:

Momrangal

Town:

Norwegian, Quiet

Very likely Town:

Gamma, DGB, Vax, Hayker

----

Suspects:

plusJOYED

Andres

Chkflip

Titus

BBMolla

I very much keep coming back to this when I think of Luca.

[Andresvmb]

Oy finding this last Scum is going to be fun. Anyway Hayker needs to go. That I’m pretty clear about. They have both Scum and SK equity. So I would absolutely vote there. If they flip Town though, that’s going to be hilarious.

[Andresvmb]

VOTE: Hayker

E-1

[Andresvmb]

Oh and as a piece of advice - if this is wrong, I checked with the Mod what happens if at the end all that’s left is the last Scum and the SK. The SK wins. So if you’re Scum out there, consider shooting the SK. Before you run out of time and have outsmarted all of the Town only to lose to the SK.

[Andresvmb]

Alright so here we are. This is the part I was dreading - finding the Serial Killer is not really similar to looking for Scum. The Serial Killer’s main objective is to survive. And to do that, they have to appear pro-Town without driving the Town too hard (otherwise they risk attracting the attention of the Scum and getting shot).

As a starting place, I don’t think I’ll be voting for Norwegian as the Serial Killer. It’s possible that they are, I haven’t ruled it out completely. But they put themselves out there enough, and were aggressive enough, that I don’t see a Survivor type mentality there. I think Norwegian is Town and that’s that. Insisting to take credit repeatedly for positive Town moves, not being afraid of an execution when at the brink - it just doesn’t fit with Serial Killer in my head.

[Andresvmb]

So for me, the vote is between BBMolla and Luca. Now, Molla is a mixed bag actually. If you think about it, BBMolla at various times receded into the background. Seemed to want days to end without much regard for the outcome, and had (according to them) bad reads.

At the same time, BBMolla (i) self-voted

repeatedly

, (ii) had a visibly negative reaction to the speculation around the presence of a Serial Killer (which is hard to fake if you fully expect that it will become obvious that there is, in fact, a Serial Killer in the game), and (iii) even appeared Scummy enough to potentially warrant execution by the Town (with for example a wrong vote against Norwegian and in favor of Vaxkiller). I would have felt that a Serial Killer would have been more insistent about their Towniness, or more careful about their votes.

All of this assumes of course that the Scum have been vanquished, which I think is a fair assumption since there was only one death last night and the Scum would have obviously taken out the Innocent Child.

[Andresvmb]

That leaves Luca. Luca to me has all the marks of a Serial Killer. Has artfully maneuvered to be viewed as a member of the Town, has been irritable about votes against them (for example, they insisted I was wrong about them yesterday), and has decidedly Town sided when it mattered (and has not slacked).

[Andresvmb]

Now, from looking back, Norwegian *could* be viewed similar to how I’m describing Luca here. They have also been really insistent about their Towniness, and were blocked in a Night where there was only 1 execution if I remember correctly.

I just don’t see why a Serial Killer would bring up the fact that there could be a third party in the game before it was obvious. I just don’t think a Serial Killer would do that. There’s no reason to provide the Scum, who can shoot at you, with the knowledge that they need to be on the lookout for a Serial Killer. Because I would be looking for something different if I thought there was a Town Vig versus a Serial Killer. At least I don’t think they present themselves as the same.

[Andresvmb]

But I mean, this is honestly a crap shoot. I think I have a sense for how to find Scum, or what to be on the lookout for. Serial Killer? Not really. I’ve played Serial Killer once before (and won), but it was different than what I think we’ll find here. I had specific character targets, one of which was Scum, and I was forced to Town side to find that last target (so I was quite vocal about trying to help the Town find Scum). Given the fact that the Serial Killer has to be the last person standing to win, I just don’t think I would be at the forefront of trying to find Scum, but I would maybe be aggressive about defending myself.

[Andresvmb]

That’s all I have. I wish this would have been a game with 5 Scum and not this. And that’s clearly not what we have.

[Andresvmb]

I'm not sure whether ya'll thinking I could actually be an SK in this game is a compliment or insult lmfao

In reality, anyone can be an SK. That’s the part that’s annoying about it. Because they’re typically uninformed, and their main objective is to live until the end.

Now, you claimed Miller correct? And then disavowed it? And also softed PR? Yeah, not truly what I would expect from someone that needs to survive until the end.

[Andresvmb]

also I'm a miller

im not a miller but look how much fun we had

Tbh I kind of just want this day to end so I can do my night action

VOTE: Hayker

Yeah I don’t see you as a viable candidate for Serial Killer haha

[Andresvmb]

You’re probably the least likely if anything to be SK actually.

[Andresvmb]

I think I’m going to go Luca on this one, but I’ll wait for Norwegian to chime in and if Luca wants to say anything that’s also fine of course.

[Andresvmb]

we want to no lim or nah?

You know I thought about this, and it would narrow it down by one and maybe make it more obvious, but I don’t know. I’m kind of tired of this game? But I want to see what Norwegian says because if they disagree strongly about Luca for example then yeah actually No Killing is optimal.

[Andresvmb]

we want to no lim or nah?

You know I thought about this, and it would narrow it down by one and maybe make it more obvious, but I don’t know. I’m kind of tired of this game? But I want to see what Norwegian says because if they disagree strongly about Luca for example then yeah actually No Killing is optimal.

Can you sell me on why you think it's more likely Luca?

I think you have a point on the quote about shooting someone actually haha I do remember that, but I am interpreting that more as wanting to get shot than to unintentionally soft that they’re SK.

I just know it’s not you Norwegian, that I’m like pretty set on. I don’t think SK ever approaches the game like you have. You’ve been very aggressive and vocal and at times, very correct. And you attracted a lot of Scum attention clearly, so I don’t see it.

[Andresvmb]

The interesting thing about softing Vig is that I’m of the mindset that Vigs tend to be negative utility - they’re more often than not wrong, and hurt the Town. So I wouldn’t as Scum NK somebody softing that they’re Vig with a lot of players left.

But that’s just my personal perspective. I think if you’re softing a PR of any sort, it’s typically to attract Scum attention and get shot. So yeah I can’t think of a good reason as to why you would do that as SK.

[Andresvmb]

All my people who think I’m town got killed the last two nights

I would not kill Mom over Gamma, that’s suicide

@Norwegian what do you make of this? Do you think there’s anything to it? Because the fundamental point applies to Survivor as well - you want to keep people around that will not vote against you.

[Andresvmb]

Alright after Luca puts all of his thoughts out there I’ll vote for a No Kill. We would benefit here from further narrowing it down.

[Andresvmb]

I don’t actually have to wait.

I’ll just do this and whenever everybody is content about who they think it is, and if they get executed their thoughts are out there, then hammer No Kill.

VOTE: No Kill

[Andresvmb]

Andres as well actually, although I haven’t liked the majority of his posts.

I don’t know why you’re being so overly negative about my posts. I’ve made some mistakes but I don’t think I’ve been a detriment to Town.

[Andresvmb]

The sk is clearly non compulsive so they’re not obliged to kill anyone?

If they kill Norwegian then that wouldn’t help a lot either, as he won’t be eliminated.

I don’t know how you can be 100% sure that Norwegian would be the target of the SK. If I believed in slips I would argue this is one.

[Andresvmb]

Except it has been repeatedly pointed at me. It’s how the game works. Everybody in the Town is uncertain, so you can’t be sure if a certain correct push is good play or informed and planned, and if a wrong push is an honest attempt or Scum. So you try and balance it out.

And I so not take the full picture in consideration that I hammered Scum and pointed out the last one in succession. I mean it’s ridiculous.

[Andresvmb]

I’m not committing to any course of action - I’ll do whatever I think is best.

[Andresvmb]

Alright well I’m not going to drag this for forever. If you guys are just going to vote BBMolla then I won’t stand in the way. It’s not like I think I’m more likely to figure the SK out than anybody here.

[Andresvmb]

You know, if I had to guess, I would say the SK is Norwegian. I think that I’m being set up to vote Luca. And Luca is never voting Norwegian over me.

But it should be obvious I think from the choice of NK that it’s not me. It’s a bad way to argue this actually and I know that, and I’m not going to go far with this because of the amount of WIFOM that is associated with this type of argument (so I personally discard it most of the time at this juncture, though note that this isn’t to find the last Scum), but if I were SK, I NK Norwegian there 100% of the time. I would have left myself super flexible to argue whatever I wanted at the end and forced a vote between Luca and BBMolla. Because that one I can win easily I think. Here I’m stuck arguing it’s Luca, and hoping Norwegian doesn’t turn against me for some reason.

[Andresvmb]

Norwegian on the other hand has seen me easily discard the argument against them, and sound almost convinced it’s Luca. So it’s an easy decision from their perspective - here I’m handcuffed into a set position, and if I’m tunneled enough it’s an easy victory.

[Andresvmb]

In fact, I don’t think Luca makes that NK. And that’s the part that is just so dangerous about this. Like why leave me alive? If I’m Luca, I would have shot me 100% of the time. I just made a strong argument against them, and if I want to win, I easily eliminate the guy that sounds least open to reconsidering.

[Andresvmb]

But that’s again all WIFOM. You could argue oh but that’s exactly what Luca wants you to think blah blah blah until the end of time. So this isn’t going to convince anybody really. I guess it boils down to the tools that the SK had to live until this moment. Because the existence of the Role Cop was obvious. So if they had the tools to avoid that making them a target for the Scum, it’s not that hard to be super aggressive and try and help Town during the day. I’m just still confused as to the ease with which they were able to brush off the pressure of near death, but they did do this slightly manipulative thing where they simply assumed I would get it right. And I mean I wasn’t going to screw that vote up I don’t think (Vax v. Norwegian).

[Andresvmb]

I also think there was some pressure from Norwegian to get it done yesterday in order to lock it in, whereas everybody else was willing to vote for a No Kill. Which actually plays a role in my thinking too. Luca gave up a potential victory yesterday to have it narrowed down today. I could have voted BBMolla yesterday given what I said publicly and that would have guaranteed Luca a victory. But they passed that up. Why? It doesn’t make sense as a 3p move.

[Andresvmb]

Or if we’re doing it. Shouldn’t we discuss what a kill on "x" would mean for the allignment of "y" and vice verca?
An completely unorganized to kill is unacceptable if there is no clear framework of what town wins or gains.

Like this seems just what the 3p wanted - clarity that would have helped determine what NK to make. I wasn’t particularly interested in doing this because I had my thinking, but if I reveal it I’m giving the other party a heads up with regards to what to do.

[Andresvmb]

So that’s how I’m approaching this today. And you know what, I don’t think there’s any great way to do this. Finding a 3p or convincing others you’re not a 3p is just not something that anybody really works at or has to do particularly frequently. So I still feel this is quite like tossing a coin.

[Andresvmb]

Yeah I can link to the game I played SK. Let me find it first.

[Andresvmb]

https://forum.mafia451.com/t/mha-mafia- ... =andresvmb

[Andresvmb]

In that game like I explained, I Town-sided hard and lead 4 consecutive Scum executions while hard-defending a Town player I needed to shoot. There was a slight Mod error that also forced my hand a little bit.

[Andresvmb]

I would probably shoot either Luca or Andres and argue for Molla SK if anything. That’s what i think would make the most sense if i was in that situation.

Frankly this is what I expected you to do - shoot me. Luca almost always votes BBMolla I think over you. So this ending I don’t quite understand. But if I really wanted to tunnel to not leave myself open for much, I again just NK Norwegian and be done with it.

[Andresvmb]

I wouldn’t do some risky play like that.

All of us could say the same tbh. I think rn you'd have more reason to than Andres.

I will have a look back through the game and see if I can find anything relevant.

Well yeah. All I have to do is stay consistent with yesterday, where I laid out all of my thoughts as to who I thought was the SK. And if you look at it, I said I thought the vote should be between Luca and Molla, and I also felt Molla was the least likely player to be SK based on their play. I could have tried to win yesterday even, but I voted No Kill. So yeah I do feel like I’m being set up here.

[Andresvmb]

@Luca you know what’s helping your case in my eyes? Your defiance. You have been so insistent about standing up for your play (and it’s very similar to how I act when people start bashing me when I’m not being that helpful as Town), even saying that you would talk to me about it post-game, I really do think you would maybe avoid that a little more if you were an SK. It just struck me as genuine. I am a bit soft on these arguments I admit, but I do find them more often than not coming just from frustrated Town. It’s just so hard to fake that true genuine emotion. I don’t know - I could be reading too much into it.

[Andresvmb]

And I’m not implying you haven’t been helpful btw. Just to be clear. I just know that’s how I react when I’m in that particular situation. Here I think you’re just reacting frustrated you’re not getting your due so to speak.

[Andresvmb]

Like Norwegian did it too earlier in the game but in a different way. By trying to sideline me. It wasn’t an engagement with me as a fellow Town member. It was more go away you don’t know what you’re talking about. Which I SR’ed coincidentally.

[Andresvmb]

So, this is it. I’ve improved my Endgame performance over time but it’s never come down to voting correctly for the SK so this is new. I am not in any rush so I’ll give Norwegian plenty of time to say whatever they want to say. I think deep down I have a sense of where I’m going to vote, and I don’t think much of what people actually say here will change that I mean what is there to say? Like we’ve all played very much like members of the Town nobody is going to try and argue here that somebody was Scummier than someone else because it’s just not true.

[Andresvmb]

Or at least, no longer true. I have wanted both of you dead at different points hahaha so at least some version of me will be proven correct.

[Andresvmb]

I really can't see myself voting anyone other than BBmolla tbh.

VOTE: BBmolla

I don't think Andres is sk, but gg if you are.

Like why does Luca SK shoot Molla? How does that even make sense? And why don’t I just exploit this? I am the only one who openly thought Molla was not SK and had Molla on my side. I don’t think Molla turns against me even if Luca decides to go against this clear intent to execute Molla I don’t.

[Andresvmb]

Ha. I was right to change my mind.

That’s amazing.

VOTE: Norwegian

[Andresvmb]

Alright Luca I’m an open book. Literally ask me anything.

[Andresvmb]

Alright well I’m not going to drag this for forever. If you guys are just going to vote BBMolla then I won’t stand in the way. It’s not like I think I’m more likely to figure the SK out than anybody here.

This was quite a sudden change of tone. You thought BBmolla was least likely SK, so why were you so quick to back down here?

Well you have correctly pointed out that I tend to be stubborn. And I was somewhat sure that BBMolla was Town. I didn’t pin them as SK and I didn’t even think they were Scum. I did stand up for BBMolla as Town you’ll recall when the wagon was building against them.

You want to know why I backed down? Because I have some faith in my ability to point out Scum. I think I’m decent at that, particularly when I’m focused or following closely. Pointing out 3p? Not really. I try to look at a situation, think through the motivation, and see if it makes sense to me. But guessing what a 3p wants to do outside of the obvious incentive to survive is difficult to guess. I wouldn’t have adopted the approach Norwegian did for example. Because they risked a massive backlash once they got a few things wrong, and the Scum have no incentive to help out. And you saw that with their near death. But I suppose Norwegian figured out that trying to blend with the Town and actually trying to figure out Scum was more important long-term. And frankly it’s paid off right.

[Andresvmb]

Also, I am a bit tired of this game. If I’m being transparent. It’s been a long game, and I wasn’t looking forward to having to wait around for a resolution. I think the SK has been counting on slowly bleeding us to death in a way. Because one player was not willing to accelerate nights, and I can guarantee that at the end, it was a conscious tactic.

[Andresvmb]

Besides, I knew that if I got it wrong, here at the very end, I was going to have so many people disappointed in me. Particularly given how close we are to actually winning. It’s somewhat of a blessing that it’s not up to me hahaha I feel very relaxed about it now.

[Andresvmb]

So yeah I think I have been pretty straightforward about my feelings about how to figure out the SK. And I have tried to stay consistent with that. I think Norwegian suggesting that there was a 3p instead of a Vig was a genius move btw. I would not have had the balls to do that, and it really threw me off. But even that for example - it’s an overplay. It’s consistent with a BBMolla NK.

[Andresvmb]

@Luca you’re Town? Because if so, yeah it was. We won

[Andresvmb]

Now you can yell at me for hating on you this game haha

[Andresvmb]

Hahaha thanks. I’m glad you were all indignant. It helped me read you for sure.

[Andresvmb]

We did well! This game was tough. A win is a win is a win.

[Andresvmb]

After all that effort I’m just glad it paid off.

@Binatog! You cleared two players this game. That was fantastic. Talk about making hard on the Scum.

[Andresvmb]

^making it hard*

[Andresvmb]

@MIZZY! We need a final reveal!

And thanks for Modding! So many emotions. I’m glad it’s over.

[Andresvmb]

VCA sucks when missing a whole faction.

Also, I knew that Norway argument was in bad faith. He just didn't fit with the VCA.

I really hope this is not the only conclusion you take out of this game.

[Andresvmb]

Good job Luca and Andres!

Good job NorwegianboyEE too, you came so close.

Outside of the shit show that was the first three days, I think the Town had a lot of strong players here to be honest. And let’s be real - we caught a massive break with the SK shooting chkflip. Though I still maintain that once they decided to execute DGB, chkflip is outted.

[Andresvmb]

I shot Andres both N1 and N2 and it failed both times. I wanted him dead from the get go.

Norwegian, I am taking this as a compliment, and I’ll accept it.

If you hadn’t made that mistake at the end, I probably don’t figure you out. I think you played fantastic given the cards you were dealt.

I have a lot of praise for a lot of players here. And chkflip was actually fantastic Scum. Would take that as my Scum Partner any day of the week.

[Andresvmb]

There were alot of clashing personalities

I'm glad that I was able to lock andres tho

I don’t like to admit this, but probably my biggest tell is my activity level. I kept it high and kept pushing the entire time. If I’m really motivated as Scum I can maybe replicate it, but it’s tough for me.

[Andresvmb]

Good job Luca and Andres!

Good job NorwegianboyEE too, you came so close.

Outside of the shit show that was the first three days, I think the Town had a lot of strong players here to be honest. And let’s be real - we caught a massive break with the SK shooting chkflip. Though I still maintain that once they decided to execute DGB, chkflip is outted.

claimed prs that are scum mess up solves!

Seriously, it was so bad hahaha it clearly messed up a lot of players.

[Andresvmb]

Hey I mean again you clearly succeeded. But your play really was of aggressive Town when examined closely. There’s no denying that. The Scum clearly felt that way too because they built that wagon against you. So it wasn’t just that you fooled me - you definitely just played like Town for the most part. Only when the kills started piling up is that I tried to examine other motivations more closely.