Mystery Mafia 2- Game Over! But who won!?

[elvis_knits]

I really want everyone to confirm they have read the death scene's because if you haven't then you should. There is obviously a wolf character around and it is either Patrick or Lord Hur.

I agree there is a wolf. I think it's Patrick though for the way he has reacted -- first saying that the kill could have been a weirdly flavored vengeful vig, and then OMGUS on lord hur.

I also don't agree with Patrick's recent assessment of lord hur. I don't think that including the possibile scenario of yourself as scum is a scum tell. I think people inculde that possibility because they know others don't know their allignment and are trying to be fair.

LITRAL -- Give me a reason to participate in your [quote="Litral]number[/quote] thing. I don't get it.

[elvis_knits]

I really want everyone to confirm they have read the death scene's because if you haven't then you should. There is obviously a wolf character around and it is either Patrick or Lord Hur.

I agree there is a wolf. I think it's Patrick though for the way he has reacted -- first saying that the kill could have been a weirdly flavored vengeful vig, and then OMGUS on lord hur.

I also don't agree with Patrick's recent assessment of lord hur. I don't think that including the possibile scenario of yourself as scum is a scum tell. I think people inculde that possibility because they know others don't know their allignment and are trying to be fair.

LITRAL -- Give me a reason to participate in your [quote="Litral]number[/quote] thing. I don't get it.

[elvis_knits]

Wheeeee for double posting... sorry

[Litral]

Well, let's say it this way, there's this rule about revealing your role, but obviously I can't satisfy mine without divulging

something

, but that something is hard to judge... so a certain person judged.

Which means I'm not sure I can write more.

[TonyMontana]

1

Because I ain't afraid to see where this rabbit hole goes.

After long and careful consideration of the arguments, I'm gonna go with

Vote: lord_hur

[vollkan]

I don’t like Lord Hur’s post 175. He is really kind of undercutting the lynch by making it sound like there is no choice, which, in turn, suggests he is trying to reduce his own responsibility for it. He could easily change votes but, instead, he persists in holding a vote that he is clearly unhappy with. This persists in 237, where after considerable time he now even says he doesn’t like tajo’s play but “we're stuck with Greasy Spot's lynch.” He had the capacity to change the lynch, but instead he chose to not take any action.

Changing votes with so many people in 4 days? I did not think it was possible. Plus Dasquian was looking pretty town to me and has said the same thing a couple days before. That said, I could have made a mistake, I agree. I am not used to strict deadlines like this game's.

Er no. Even if you were so inexperienced, I find it hard to swallow that you would just give up. Any reasonable player would nonetheless make an effort. Worst-case scenario would be that you unvote and have to revote Greasy Spot.

Also, I am not sure why what you thought of Dasquain should have any bearing. Did you think for yourself, or just follow somebody who you thought appeared town? I, for one, can't seriously envisage myself following anybody who I was not certain was town and, even then, only if I had no reasoning of my own.

Hur’s post 337 (his first for D3) is pretty odd. See, he says Nightson (Remus) is the last of his early suspects remaining, but second guesses himself because the previous attacks based on Ashmite’s non-activity had bad results. BUT, then he gets to VRK and says that he doesn’t find any of VRK’s posts scummy, but, nonetheless, he finds VRK most scummy and that he “could appear a lot less scummy if only he posted more.”

What's odd in this? I reread the thread, and found that VRK had not voted a single time... Pretty uncommitting, and as the other leads were pretty thin, I expressed my suspicion.

What's odd is that you are inconsistent.

You don't treat inactivity as a scumtell for Nightson, but you do so for VRK.

I'll quote the relevant passages:

As for me, of all my suspects since the beginning of the game, only Nightson (now remussaidow) is left, and lack of activity didn't work as an argument for ashmite84, plus remussaidow has picked up a lot, even if his attack on mnowax is still not convincing me... Not that good of a lynch candidate right now imho...

<snip>

VRK : no activity for ages, didn't commit himself to *any* vote yet. None of his posts appeared as scummy to me yet (except when he said he would hammer Greasy Spot, and didn't show up to do it), but with this little activity, it's hard to form an opinion.
<snip>
Right now, I'm suspecting VRK mainly. He could appear a lot less scummy if only he posted more...

** VEL-RAHN KOON, PLEASE PLAY THE GAME (seriously, it is fast paced and easy to read, you got no excuses) **

How is that not inconsistent?

I do not like Hur’s 348, chiefly the penultimate paragraph where he concocts the idea that VRK FoSes in order to conceal a OMGUS. Not only is that sheer assumption with no basis, but VRK had actually given reasons for suspecting Hur. Thus, it wouldn’t have been OMGUS even if VRK had voted.

Err that's about the only point VRK conceded to me.

Firstly, he didn't "concede" it to you. He did say: "That's about the fairest thing you've said so far", but let's have a look at the whole point in context, shall we? I think you'll find that you are dead wrong about this.

As a side note, I can't help noticing that you made your first vote in this game right after I attacked you for lack of commitment on this point, and your vote on remus while you FoS me looks like a way to attack me without it looking too much like an OMGUS move...

I think this deserves a FoS : Vel-Rahn Koon

That's about the fairest thing you've said so far. Although with the FoS it looks like you're trying to express suspicion without committing to voting for me. Scummy.

I could care less that you attacked me for my lack of play. It was perfectly acceptable for you to do so because I had not been playing. But to be fair, you yourself said in post 337 that

VRK : no activity for ages, didn't commit himself to *any* vote yet. None of his posts appeared as scummy to me yet (except when he said he would hammer Greasy Spot, and didn't show up to do it), but with this little activity, it's hard to form an opinion.

So with one post, which accuses you of being possible scum based not on your play, but on a confirmed cop's possible tell, I've suddenly become scummy enough for you to NOT commit to a vote, but an FoS which you can back out of if support doesn't materialize. You should be FoSing tajo...

And you say that I'm OMGUSing? Nice try! Hypocrite = joo. /FAIL

NEXT!!!

So, not only does he criticise the fact that you voted without pointing out any suspect posts (which, in addition to the inconsistency, makes you FoS totally unjustifiable), but he actually entirely rejects your assertion that it was OMGUS.

Lord Hur also gets a kick from me for this: “The worst part is, as it IS a hunch (I know it because I'm town, even if I also know you have no reason to believe me), remus could actually be scum, and if he does turn up scum, and if people follow your reasoning, I'm going to be lynched tomorrow.” As VRK said, it’s a blatant appeal to emotion AND, moreover, it is totally unacceptable to rely on hunches.

WTF? Seriously? I did not say I was relying on MY hunch, I was just saying I knew that that tajo's sentence was only a hunch because I know my only alignment.

That said, I agree about the appeal to emotion (and also, as I've said before, that it's the single worst argument in my opinion).

Sorry, I misread this. I thought you were saying that you had a hunch remus could be scum.

He then, in 370, strawmans the fact that he was making an emotional appeal about fear of death by arguing that no player wants to die. This misses the point that Hur was making appeals to his mortality.
He also has this stupid idea that there is a “scumtell about certainty”, which I’ve never heard of and I cannot see the sense in.

This seriously baffles me. You... know that scum know people's alignment from the start (as well as each of them's roles), don't you? For example, shaft.ed got a very specular win (which he posted in that scummy awards thread) with was solely based on a scumtell about certainty. Basically, one scum was assuming one player was town in his reasoning, while he would have had no reason to know that if he were town.

Okay, I see what is going on here.

There is a "scumtell about certainty" (if you want to call in that) in relation to posts that make

implicit assumptions

as to people's alignments.

eg. In a game where there are 4 players: A, B, C and D, and the town is sure the situation is 3 town vs 1 scum. If A said: "Well, either C or D must be scum", then the post assumes B is town. That could be seen as scummy.

Remus, however, did NOTHING of the sort. He said: "highly doubt I'll get lynched today, VRK, and even if I do, you're ******* nuts. I'd love to OMGUS you just to help you look more like an ***, but I'm too goddamned sure you're town"

Notice something? "I'm too goddamned sure" is NOT a subtle, implicit assumption. He's basically saying: "I have a really strong impression that you are pro-town." I can't see how you can spin that as scumminess. Scum might slip up and make an assumption, but that's totally different to explicitly stating an opinion.

I also don’t like the way he so casually drops his anti-VRK line before voting remus; his reasnos for not pursuing VRK are pretty much meaningless in terms of VRK’s alignment.

I need a translation for this.

Sure. I see that I was unclear there.

You said:

I have been pondering between voting for VRK or for remus. But now, if I take into account all my analyzing and :

- the fact that VRK's play and arguments, as much as I don't like them both, have the merit of pressuring people, which is usally quite good for town to get extra info ;

- the fact that VRK has lost each and every of his games as town (7), so his bad arguments could actually be genuine (not the best argument, I know, but I think it counts) ;

The fact that VRK's arguments have pressured people and the fact that he has lost as town are both irrelevant in terms of his alignment in this came. You are right to say that the second point is "not the best" because, in fact, it is very weak. The mere fact he has lost games as town in no way implies he has poor reasoning.

Given that, you basically are just arbitrary in the way you decide between VRK or remus, but you dress it up as if you were making a reasoned judgment.

I don’t follow why Hur says Patrick is SK and, yet, his whole initial argument was based on a werewolf flavour.

SK = lone killer. He can be using knives, guns or claws (and be a werewolf, in that last case).

Right. I figured that might be what you meant, but you said, initially:
"We know that there are two anti-town forces : those who claw/dismember people (werewolf for short), and those who shoot people (mafia). "

"those who" implies a plurality.

Question: if we lynch one of Patrick and lord_hur, and that person comes up town, should we lynch the other or look for scum in the players that joined today? (assuming nothing extraordinary happens) This has to be answered before we lynch one of them, because if the question is "don't lynch the other" then the second question is "why would we lynch one of them today?". Man I have no idea if I'm making any sense right now...

You are making sense here. The reason for lynching one of them is the presumption that, based on the NKs, one of them must be scum. If that presumption is dubious, then we shouldn't lynch either. I don't see how (absent some weird delay mechanics or something) it could be dubious, though.

Farside’s attack on Hur is pretty flat…I get her point (Hur not scumhunting), but it’s not really positive evidence of scumminess.

It's been my experience that I see more and more scum hiding under the radar and not scum hunting. It typically is more accurate then not. Only very few people I play with don't scum hunt and it is a null tell.

Any specific examples?

[lord_hur]

Ok, someone finish me please...

Anyone really, it doesn't matter.

[farside22]

Any specific examples?

Xtoxm is the perfect example of someone who lurks/ flys under the radar and is typically scum. See Pick your poison 3 in theme park.

[Lawrencelot]

Ok, someone finish me please...

Anyone really, it doesn't matter.

Vote: lord_hur

[lord_hur]

Thank you.

[Battle Mage]

Vote Count

Lord Hur 5 (Patrick, Litral, Farside22, TonyMontana, Lawrencelot)
Patrick 2 (Lord Hur, Elvis Knits)

Not Voting: Vollkan, Dahill1

With 9 alive, 5 votes will lynch. Dahill1 is hereby replaced by ForbiddanLight. Welcome to the game!

And with plenty of time left before deadline, Lord Hur was lynched. He had argued well, but it simply wasn't enough, and it was after his death that his true affiliation was revealed.

Lord Hur - Mafia Goon, Lynched Day 3

The town rejoiced! Was the spate of killings finally over? Could they finally live in the forest in peace? Only 1 way to find out.

It is now Night 3. You have 72 hours to get your choices to me.

Good Luck,

BM

[Battle Mage]

For those who had recently joined the woodland civilisation, it came as quite a shock to see the work of the evil lurking in the shadows.
Despite all his investigative training, Vollkan had been unable to defend himself against the swift blade of his attacker, and was mercilessly slain.

Vollkan – Cop, Stabbed, Night 3

Without their Chief of Police, the remaining 7 players were rather shaken (but not stirred). Luckily the loss of the night was soon concealed by a gain of the day.

Please give a warm Woodland welcome to:

The Fonz!

and...

MafiaSSK!

It is now Day 4. With 9 of you remaining, 5 votes are required to lynch. You have 12 days to decide upon a suitable victim.

BM

[farside22]

Alright Patrick. I don't want to hear any WIFOM comments. You can not explain away the mod's discriptions any more. Since no one else makes sense I am certain now you are the wolf.

Night 1:

The first body found, or lack thereof, was DGB, who had been mauled during the night by what could only be described as a ferocious beast.

DrippingGoofBall - ScrewBall, Sloppily Eaten Night 1

Night 2

Despite recent events, the shock of death was still a bitter pill to swallow. Certainly Dasquian was very much aggreived to find himself missing several limbs, and bleeding heavily. He was still writhing in pain when he was finally put out of his misery with a well placed bullet.

Dasquian – Doctor, Dismembered and Shotgunned, Night 2

Here are the list of those who have died and tell me how it is that with those death scene's it is anything but wolf attack.

7. FaerieLord - Vanilla Townie, Murdered Day 1
3. Alabaska J - Mafia Goon, Murdered Day 1
1. Greasy Spot - Vanilla Townie, Lynched Day 1
11. DGB - ScrewBall, Sloppily Eaten Night 1
2. Populartajo - Insane Day Cop, Shotgunned Night 1
8. Ashmite84 - Vengeful Vigilante, Lynched Day 2
10. Dasquian - Doctor, Dismembered and Shotgunned Night 2
13. Kison - Human Bomb, Exploded Day 3
12. Vel-Rahn Koon - Radiation Suit Salesman, Shattered into tiny pieces Day 3
6. Remussaidow (Rep. Nightson) - Cop, Burnt to a crisp Day 3
5. Mnowax - Crazed Maniac, Blown Up Day 3
4. Lord Hur - Mafia Goon, Lynched Day 3
16. Vollkan - Cop, Stabbed Night 3

Vote: Patrick

[forbiddanlight]

Given what I've read of the game, that makes a lot of sense. But that would also mean he no killed tonight. Basically it's that N2 kill that seals the deal, since no scum died in the bomb. I'm going to have to agree and

Vote:Patrick

[farside22]

Given what I've read of the game, that makes a lot of sense. But that would also mean he no killed tonight. Basically it's that N2 kill that seals the deal, since no scum died in the bomb. I'm going to have to agree and

Vote:Patrick

I am expecting to hear him say something about that. That is why I stated no WIFOM comments.

[forbiddanlight]

I am expecting to hear him say something about that. That is why I stated no WIFOM comments.

Oh, I have a convoluted theory that could be used for Patrick's innocence. I'm not saying it though ^-^

[TonyMontana]

I support this string of reasoning.

Vote:Patrick

[elvis_knits]

As I thought yesterday, Patrick is a wolf.

[The Fonz]

Dear God, I actually have a town read on farside here. She's only made one post i absolutely hate, as opposed to the usual... most of them.

Also, the Patrick-wolf theory stands up perfectly. I will announce intent to vote, and request a claim, for reasons that i am happy to elaborate on post-claim.

[farside22]

Dear God, I actually have a town read on farside here. She's only made one post i absolutely hate, as opposed to the usual... most of them.

Also, the Patrick-wolf theory stands up perfectly. I will announce intent to vote, and request a claim, for reasons that i am happy to elaborate on post-claim.

Ring
Ring

"Hi hell is it freezing down there?"

Pause

"No. Okay I had to hear it for myself because the impossible just happened."

[Patrick]

Meh. It's obvious I'm going to be lynched today, so I'm just going to get down as many thoughts as I can. Whilst everyone will presumably see them as scum trying WIFOM tricks or whatever, I urge people to at least take them on board when I'm revealed as innocent.

I'm pretty certain that the gory kills come from the vengeful vigilante role. Both the victims voted ashmite, and Dasquian was ashmite's top suspect (and, if my theory of how the role works is correct, DGB was the only player available for ashmite to kill). There is no werewolf, so when I'm dead, don't continue chasing one, obv.

Brief thoughts on other players. My feeling is that if lord_hur had any scumbuddies about, they would have been inclined to try to get me lynched rather than bus him: I think even lord_hur and co think I'm a werewolf at this point, so by getting me lynched, they'd eliminate someone they saw as rival scum and get lord_hur off the hook he was on (although not completely cleared obv).

elvis_knits: Decently fits the profile. Very one sided approach on entering the game, first few posts seem to be all about one post of mine (which she glossed over?) After that, posts are pretty much all attacking me and defending lord_hur. Backing the wrong horse need not be inherently scummy, but not a very thorough or fair analysis of the game at all by elvis.

Lawrencelot: Voted me for reasons I still don't like. Reason (1) could have been legit (albeit nothing for me to respond too), reason (2) seemed fairly empty and reason (3) about the insane cop was awful, and looked like he'd decided he was voting me and then just tried to manufacture evidence. Withdrew his vote for me when it looked like I was gaining the upper hand (after vollkan was supporting me) and then hammered lord_hur. Decent mafia candidate based on that pattern of play. Only other note is that he floated the question of whether one of lord_hur or myself had to be scum at all, after previously stating that it was safe to assume at least one was. Not necessarily a problem but would still like him to explain that.

Litral: Reads as mildly town to me. Didn't seem especially conscious of the opportunity to set me up as a day 4 lynch (which I'd expect mafia to be more keenly aware of). Not much clue about his request to post numbers: I'd mainly judge whether or not to follow that based on your read of him, mine is that I think he's unlikely to be mafia.

farside: voted lord_hur, reasons didn't especially impress me, then again, at that point she could have gone with the momentum and voted me, putting it at 4-2, so lowers the chance of her being mafia. Don't like her extreme narrow-mindedness about the nightkills, but I can't really decide whether it's bothering me as scummy or I just don't like it because I'm the victim.

TonyMontana: only real note is that he's done very little. Voted lord_hur when hur was looking the worst of the two yesterday, voting me as the obvious lynch for today. Needs to post content rather than just voting.

forbiddanlight: again, not much I can say. Predecessor just seemed to flake, and she hasn't yet done anything that makes me lean in any direction. Neutral, basically just need more info.

And then there's the two new arrivals, again, pretty much blank slates for me. That list of players was written in no particular order, but the scummiest two are elvis and Lawrencelot. I'm a vanilla townie. I accept that I'm a necessary lynch barring a scenario where someone has investigative evidence that proves I'm telling the truth. I'll field any questions and elaborate on any suspicions as best I can, not especially interested in further defending myself unless it's taken seriously, which it clearly isn't. Just take at least some notice of what I've said tomorrow, and don't let anyone coast through the game.

[forbiddanlight]

Well, I thank you for your thoughts since no matter what side you are on they do make good analysis fodder. I was actually thinking along the lines that people who blatantly deflected from Lord Hur the last day are probably more likely to be scum. But I'm afraid the evidence feels strongly against you.

[farside22]

The problem with your theory Patrick is that ashmite was lynched. That night Das was killed. You were the first person to vote off ashmite. Also a vengeful vigilante does not equate to mauling a person. That would be gun shots. No that is not out guessing the mod. But if the vengeful vigilante had a kill I would think he would get to shot the day he was lynched or if he was night killed, shot the person who killed him. That would be my guess on what a vengeful vigilante does. Mauling does not fit.

As for your analysis. I agree that the attention off of Lord Hur looks suspect. My reason's might not be spectacular on why I voted her, but I have yet to be proven wrong (except by lazy townies) of lack of scum hunting = scum.

[TonyMontana]

unvote

I'm sorry, I didn't catch the whole vengeful part (as in had to read up on the role) and isn't it blatantly obvious that ashmite killed DGB and Dasquian?
I see the argument for a wolf, but not an explanation for a ashmites role in that scenario...

[Patrick]

farside, on day 1, only DGB and Greasy Spot voted ashmite. Greasy Spot was lynched, so that only left DGB as a target for the vengeful vig (assuming the role works how I suspect). On day 2, ashmite was lynched by Patrick, Dasquian, lord_hur and remussaidow, and I think he had to choose which one of those to get his vengeance on. I think he killed Dasquian because Dasquian was clearly his top suspect. Vigs do

not

always kill with guns, that's been proven, but I realise the flavour is suspect anyway; that's why I'm getting votes.