Mafia 29: Mafia - Game over!

[Desperate Heart]

Only an idiot would roleclaim mafia...

And I'll be voting for a lurker sometime later. As coin flips and bandwagons aren't very helpful.

[Desperate Heart]

Look at me! I'm content!

Unofficial vote count

Locus 2 - jdtay, mastermind
Zoneace 1 - scalebane, bigbenwd
peacebringer 1 - maximus
jdtay 1 - locus
commify 1 - olliep13
lazarus 1 - joe
joe 1 - lazarus
coron 1 - quagmire

[Desperate Heart]

also

bloojay 1 - commify
omniplex 1 - coron

[Desperate Heart]

Right now we should be trying to get lurkers out, not bandwagoning people for stupid reasons.

I'm pretty sure Uraj45 and melchizedek haven't posted yet, vote for one of them.

Vote: uraj45

(Will unvote when he posts, of course.)

[Desperate Heart]

Well, I need to call

someone

a lurker. Besides, we only have until tomorrow, so you've already missed 50% of Day 1

unvote: urja45

And I agree that No Lynch is probably best for day games, but I'd like to get a bit more information first.

[Desperate Heart]

And I agree that No Lynch is probably best for day games, but I'd like to get a bit more information first.

I

don't

agree. We have the chance to steal the initiative right out from under the noses of the town, shouldn't we take it?

As we will almost assuredly hit a mafia member, it's entirely possible that we shouldn't.

Not only are we lynching essentially at random, but the town most likely will not lynch one of themselves. This weights the vote heavily towards killing off a mafia member.

So it's really a matter of whether or not you think lynching one of ourselves is worth the extra information we'd gain (And note that we're already getting quite a bit just form the discussion.)

[Desperate Heart]

A lynch always kills a person 'at random' with the chances initially weighted towards killing a townie (Mafioso in this game, of course) and gradually shifting towards killing a mafia member (Townie in this game, again) as the game goes on (Since we gain more information.)

Regardless of what people post (Unless someone posts something really,

really

stupid.) that trend remains the same. The rate at which the odds shift changes from game to game, but later lynches all have a higher chance of hitting than early ones.

Right now, our lynch has almost no chance of hitting. We have information, but the odds start so far in the town's favor that it's not enough to balance things out, so waiting until tomorrow when we have a lot more an the chances start getting fair seems to me like a better idea.


All that said, though, hairy isn't exactly looking scummy right now and we might just get lucky.

[Desperate Heart]

Locus, the odds aren't against us just because there's more mafia than town.

The town know each other's identities, and can both not lynch each other and bandwagon on to mafia members. This makes it even more likely that a lynch will miss, by how much I can't be sure (I should just code a model, but I'm lazy.) but it definitely doesn't help us.

However, since no lynch clearly isn't happening, I'll

vote: Hariy Mezican

I

did

say that incredibly towny (What's the adjective in a reversed game?) posts would change the regular statistics.

[Desperate Heart]

I'm gonna be on a bit irregularly as I'm in vacation in Montana over Christmas, and at half the places I'm staying the internet is probably something you catch fish with.

Anyway,

Unvote: Hariy Mezican

while I catch up.

[Desperate Heart]

I'll agree with locus here, if we do lynch today it should be a lurker. Especially as our current choice of bandwagons isn't exactly thrilling.

Lurker

Vote: Melchizedak

[Desperate Heart]

Whoo! On again.

unvote: melchizadekwhatever

. He has the least number of posts, but enough people feel that voting for lurkers at this point is useless to, well, make voting for lurkers at this point useless.

And I still think, with no lynch and lurker votes not an option, that hairy Mezican is the safest lynch.

Vote: Hairy Mezican

[Desperate Heart]

God damn family vacations are annoying

Anyway, the guys that voted for our confirmed goons are.

bigbenwd
Scalebane
Uraj45
olliep13
Hairy Mezican
lazarusmoth
Darklight140
Quagmire (Goon)
Mastermind of Sin

And the people who voted with the confirmed townie are

ZONEACE (Goon)
bloojay
Locus Cosecant (Goon)
commify

In case we want to consider a townie bandwagon yesterday.

Also, this game looks like it has a whole lot of killing roles.

[Desperate Heart]

Everyone but you on the first list voted for zoneace, and you voted for locus.

The second list, by virtue of being people who voted with melch, only contains people that voted for Coron.


I'd guess that if the town

did

vote together most were going for zoneace and we got the odd man out when we vigged (Or SKed) melch. Of the For Zoneace list I'm not entirely sure who's most suspicious though. Whoever's lurking the most, I guess. Or maybe Mezican.

Alternatively, the town tried an unsuccessfull Coron bandwagon and both bloojay and commify are townspeople.

And, of course, it's entirely possible that the town didn't vote as a group. This is probably true for one or two members, but it'd be annoying if it was true for the rest as well (Who didn't vote yesterday?)

Option two is the easiest to test, and gives us two townies if correct, but I think it's also the least likely.

I'll wait on voting for now, though I will get around to this day. We've had a night now so no lynch isn't an option anymore.

[Desperate Heart]

Ah, missed the 1/2 majority bit. So I will

unvote.

This means you didn't vote for zoneace.

But don't worry, I sort of suspect you of being town anyway.

[Desperate Heart]

Here's the list of people who voted for a confirmed goon at any point during the game.

Zoneace

bigbenwd
Scalebane
Coron
Uraj45
DarkLight40
HairyMezican
JDTAY
olliep13
PeaceBringer
lazarusmoth
Quagmire

Locus Cosecant

Mastermind of Sin
JDTAY (Early)
Hairy Mezican
Coron
PeaceBringer
lazarusmoth

(No votes were placed on Quagmire)

HairyMezican, Coron, PeaceBringer, JDTAY, and lazarusmoth all appear on both lists (This is most likely because they started on Locus and then moved to Zoneace as the, uh.. "evidence" developed.)

Right now I'm slightly suspicious of everyone who lynched Zoneace, and after rereading the thread a little bit more suspicious of Coron and PeaceBringer, though it may just be because PB's style annoys me.

commify and bloojay have a very good chance of being goons, but I'm gonna be just a teeny tiny bit suspicious of them too. On principle.

[Desperate Heart]

JDtay and Laz are both on the same person right now. Strong connection there.

FOS: JD and lazarusmoth

They're both on HM, who's been a popular target for pretty much

everyone

.

Also, they ended up on different people yesterday, so if they're townies trying to skew a vote they're doing a really awful job of it.

[Desperate Heart]

I'm still trying to decide between PB, Coron, and MoS.

All three of them are acting pretty weird.

[Desperate Heart]

Yes, this is my first game on the site and I've yet to get used to everyone's style of play. Forgive me.

However, your actions today have been...


Vote JD ("Something needs to happen")

Incorrectly nitpick my list.

Incorrectly nitpick again, confirm vote on JD.

Vote Coron.

Correct previous post by unvoting JD.

Vote Maximus

Correct previous post by unvoting Maximus. Also FOS Coron.

FOS me


Your posts have either been contentless, or votes without explanation (With the exception of the FOS on me.)

At best this accomplishes nothing because it gives us no information, at worst it starts a potentially dangerous bandwagon. So if this is your style, might I ask that you change it?

[Desperate Heart]

Er, unvoting Coron. Sorry.

Point still stands.

[Desperate Heart]

MOS is just getting frustrated now. I think we found our scum. Lynch him.

I'm trying to

not

get to the point where I'm equally suspicious of so many people it becomes impossible to play properly.

That didn't help.

And it feels like the same group of maybe 4-6 people have been doing all the talking today. I'm with MoS in wanting to hear from everyone else.

[Desperate Heart]

MoS for constantly jumping around to different people, and getting frustrated when explaining his choices.

Maximus for

very

aggressively pushing an MoS lynch.

PeaceBringer for jumping around to different people and not bothering to explain at all.

Coron for, christ, I can't even remember now.

Me for posting a lot without ever supporting anything with a vote.

A whole lot of people for hardly being active.

[Desperate Heart]

hmm unvote.

Christ, man, stop hurting me!

I don't care if it's the way you play, posts where all you do is vote without any explanation are just wrong. It's annoying as hell, and dangerous even if you

aren't

scum. Even more so if you are.

Vote: PeaceBringer

[Desperate Heart]

"May or may not" is a claim?

[Desperate Heart]

I'm just trying to get somebody lynched today because it's day 2 DEADLINED. Our odds are better with lynching the most suspicious/frustrated person right now than sitting there our hands folded hoping somebody trips.

And FYI, I wasn't claiming. Take what you must out of that or any of my other posts.

Right. Because you weren't pushing MoS before the deadline at all.

We're better off lynching the most suspiciou person, but right now you and MoS are pretty much tied.

[Desperate Heart]

Maximus and MoS are both suspicious, but it's likely that at least one of them is a goon (Unless it's an evil townie plot to divide us! Adjust your tinfoil hats, gentleman.)

PeaceBringer is suspicious too, but I really wouldn't mind lynching him even if I'm wrong since the way he plays isn't at all helpful (Unless he has a night ability, but I don't have that information.)

[Desperate Heart]

I truly hope the one we don't lynch dies during the night. At least one of them should be scum.

Vote: Maximus

[Desperate Heart]

I'm sure it's an optimal play for scum to jump on a bandwagon

after

you've gotten the minimum number of votes.

And nice post there, PB. I hate you forever.

[Desperate Heart]

Oh shit, there's a 21st page!

I'm good at this

Same points still stand, just pretend they were in the right place.

[Desperate Heart]

It's not just a personal thing with me disliking it, though.

You understand that posting no information in an information game is either unproductive or actually counterproductive, right?