Mini Normal 2248 | A Member Of The Arsonists | Town wins

[DArby]

I bamboozled you all so hard I tricked myself

I got access to my laptop again and looked at MU. Doing a quick look at the two linked game's VCs, Egix tends to not bus his partners. I don't think it's apples and oranges, but I do think that's interesting

Now let me do a cross-game analysis.

[DArby]

Egix did not participate in d3's vote at all, so that's not applicable.

d2, obviously Egix voted for Gamma, which does go against Egix's playing pattern that I skimmed through MU. But again, I dunno if that's a one-to-one comparison.

But what's really interesting is posts like 84 where Gamma's old slot Cookie was Egix's vote. This is different from the scum meta I saw earlier and if it is SvS it's totally out of the blue because Egix never mentioned Cookie in the post leading up to the vote.

All in all this does make Egix feel more townie.

LQ is still a tr for me.

I will say time and time again I think the scum team is StD and NM. I will not vote anywhere else at this point.

[DArby]

Really rudimentary from me and borderline confirmation bias, I know.

But this is my thoughts atm and I'm a bit busy tonight but I have 30 minutes to spare.

[DArby]

Why are you so worried about being voted? You clearly are, as every time I talk about voting you you kinda go ballistic.

I'm almost certain you're not talking to me, but I want to confirm instead of making assumptions.

[DArby]

Then I'm lost. What are you talking about?

[DArby]

Specifically because I don't think I have an angry tone so I don't know to what you want me to respond to.

[DArby]

I was focusing on the word ballistic. Which means to go off in anger lol.

But to answer your question, I’d like to see what you’re talking about specifically, but I’m more defensive today as I believe it is ELo and while I’m fine being limmed in any other circumstances, being being limmed is a town loss, so I want to preserve that win condition.

[DArby]

So how do you want to move forward, LQ?

[DArby]

Okay.

[DArby]

LQ is now (almost) conftown.

[DArby]

d2, obviously Egix voted for Gamma

I didn't vote d2 tho??

Youre right. Change d2 to d1.

[DArby]

Assuming this is ELo:

NM and I are not partners.

Given recent posts, (as I explained I expected earlier) NM and Egix are more than likely not scum together.

From LQ’s POV, I’d imagine the odds are really good scum is either me OR NM.

I’m sure LQ is town because he holds the swing vote and I don’t think scum would hold it this long.

I find it interesting NMs PoE is the exact opposite as mine.

[DArby]

Oh also, thinking about it more, if I was scum, wouldn’t I want to be here more during d2? If my partner or whatever is getting pushed hard, wouldn’t I want to either give myself towncred or try and defend her? I’d be able to tell in the scum PT that something was wrong, and in normal circumstances I’m not that passive of a player. Scum!me doesn’t make that much sense.

[DArby]

Why not?

[DArby]

To a point, yeah.

Hm, fair enough fypov.

[DArby]

So is everyone at a standstill or ?

[DArby]

And I want NM or StD.

Two votes on different wagons.

Guess it depends where the other three land.

[DArby]

Wdym give the first vote?

[DArby]

Actually. Yes. I want that too. Very much so.

[DArby]

I’m actually really excited with the suspense. I have no idea how the game will go atp. Either way this has been really fun this day phase and I’ve had a good time.

[DArby]

What happened to waiting for StD?

[DArby]

I'm now TRing DArby fairly strongly based on play (as well as their claim).

So I don't think I'm ever voting there. If NM is Scum, then I probably just die here. If I'm wrong and NM is actually Town, well, then maybe NM can learn to play better or something (smhmh).

But if NM is Scum here then I'm pretty sure they spew DArby and Egix as Town here. So that would point to the last Scum being StD.

All we need at this point are 3 TRs. And I liked Egix pointing out they didn't even vote on D2 when they didn't need to. I also think that Egix isn't playing like their Scum meta. They are Scum hunting more. And once it was put to rest that Egix doesn't include Nulls in their RL that made me feel a lot better about Egix.

So that's my solve. I think I was right in my initial read of there being 1 Scum in Pan/StD. Kinda surprised by that, but there you go.

Was not caught in p-edit

[DArby]

Anyway

VOTE: NM

[DArby]

What happened to waiting for StD?

I thought it over and I think what I quoted from NM only comes from Scum being desperate.

Fair lol.

[DArby]

Hi

Your move?

[DArby]

Hi

Your move?

Waiting for std

Well this means 1 of 2 things. Either NM is Scum with Egix, or NM and Egix are both Town. Pretty sure I am leaning the former.

Egix and NM cannot be scum together.

I said it earlier but I think it holds up still. Scum can only come from one of {StD, LQ, D'Arby} and {Egix, NM}. I don't think any other combination is possible.

[DArby]

Egix's move is the most town outcome, tbh. If Egix votes for NM eventually, town should win.

[DArby]

Hi

Your move?

Waiting for std

Well this means 1 of 2 things. Either NM is Scum with Egix, or NM and Egix are both Town. Pretty sure I am leaning the former.

Egix and NM cannot be scum together.

I said it earlier but I think it holds up still. Scum can only come from one of {StD, LQ, D'Arby} and {Egix, NM}. I don't think any other combination is possible.

I don't think that is a bad solve at all.

Wdym by "that"?

[DArby]

I'm never opposed to being scrutinized. It's part of the game and all.

[DArby]

I was the target of the neighborizor btw

I don’t trust this.

Why not?

Reasons.

Darby is town

I mean, this looks like it could be an invest?

Haha no.

Give me like 48 hours and I can explain this.

[DArby]

But there is a reason Pan agreed. It was not an invest.

[DArby]

I’m sorry can you elaborate?

[DArby]

929

That post is an acknowledgment that I didn’t think Gamma was in bad faith.

[DArby]

StD why do I keep you Darby and LQ alive?

I said I don't trust you. That has nothing to do with my read on you. Please calm down while I read through d2.

Like, this and other interactions like it between DArby and Pan just give me the creeps. You sort of pull this gentle sort of killing you with kindness thing and it's just weird.

This Day you have been totally different. I call that a change in narrative and IMO it's a reason to SR you based on play.

My interaction with Pan is for the same reason as T3’s town read on me and I cannot elaborate further.

[DArby]

It is hard lol.

Tho, if you think I’m town, please believe Egix is town too.

[DArby]

I will be so mad if StD needs to be replaced it’s almost been the 48.

[DArby]

Also Egix, LQ and I cannot be the scum team together for multiple reasons.

If we’re not the scum team together, then that means that 1 other scum is outside the {LQ, D’Arby} block. This means either a) one of us is scum with NM or StD or b) NM is scum with StD. You are not scum.

If one of us is scum with StD, then we would have waited longer for StD to hammer. There’s no reason to have a wagon atp with majority town. If one of us was scum with NM, then we would have no reason to push there as this is probably ELo.

It makes more sense that NM and StD are the scum team, I think.

[DArby]

Plus night specific is different to X-shot

LOL. This is a really terrible argument.

VOTE: NM

No they are completely different, night specific is very simple and has a clear use in the balance of the set-up, the role works on those night and the back-up is there in case the role gets eliminated d1.

Back-up X-shot could be implemented multiple ways and has no standardisation anywhere that we can see. Plus if we go off the wiki definition, DArby would have his own 2 shots, essentially giving us a 4-shot detective, split across two player slots in an 11p. This is not balanced and would not be approved by the NRG for multiple reasons

I can't believe you are doubling down on this.

In the case a 2-Shot goes down N1 it's literally the same exact thing as a night-specific. The game in question is a N1/N2 and I was a backup WITH NO QUALIFICATIONS of N1/N2. It would actually be BETTER if the role died there because then I would have gotten to use the ability every night.

You're right that there's no standardization of X-shot backup, but it's the exact same for night specific.

And irt getting 4 shots, that's actually not true because, for example, we don't know if T3 actually used any of their shots or who they were on. So you can't say it's 4 full shots because this game demonstrates that we don't actually know anything about T3's invests. And Darby clearly said in the same post they claimed that they were 2-Shot. That's exactly what I would expect in this setup if DArby's claim is legit.

But I'll

UNVOTE:

for now and give you a chance to give your own setup spec for this game. Like what do you think is realistic for PRs for this game? What are you thinking with Traitor? Or do you think it's just 2 Group Scum? Like, 2 TPRs with a backup seems very reasonable in a 2 Group Scum with a Traitor. So what setup are you seeing here?

The point is the N1/N2 Neighbouriser serves a very clear and specific purpose; to make a neighbourhood early in the game, the back-up is insurance. Neighbourhoods are of very little utility. This is not comparable to what we have here, we (allegedly) have a detective split across two player slots, with either two scum or two scum + traitor, this is STRONGER than a full detective in this set-up as even if scum manage to kill the detective early, they now have the back-up to deal with and with just two scum capable of killing plus no false positives. This is an apples and oranges comparison

At the minute I think there's just two group scum, there just being two scum explains a lot; the inability to get an elimination or clear consensus here and that I only really have an active scumread on DArby. Plus it's a good play for DArby here to claim Detective, claim a dubious role but skate by on being a PR and come in to tomorrow with a BS guilty, giving him the ability to control the 1v1.

I am genuinely touched you think I could pull something that complex off.

[DArby]

It’s more complex then what I could do. Thanks for the idea in my next scum game, tho.

[DArby]

Yes, as I’ve had one previously so saying first is inaccurate. That’s how time works.

[DArby]

Why?

[DArby]

If you believe Egix is town, and you think I am town, and you know you are town then second guessing yourself isn’t doing you any favors.

[DArby]

Will catch up tomorrow

The return of the king

[DArby]

That is such an ingenious play and I applaud you for it.

[DArby]

If you think I’m town, what do you have for LQ and NM?

[DArby]

I don’t think it can be just NM. I don’t understand balancing well but with 4 TPRs I think that means more than 2 scum?

Also I don’t think both Egix and NM could both be lurker scum.

[DArby]

Lmao 3. My bad.

[DArby]

Lemme just casually throw new info right before hammer real q

[DArby]

[DArby]

Wait what?

[DArby]

Oh wow. Gg I suppose.

[DArby]

When do we get the locked PTs?