Mafia 29: Mafia - Game over!
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Desperate Heart Townie
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- Joined: November 26, 2004
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Desperate Heart Townie
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- Joined: November 26, 2004
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Desperate Heart Townie
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- Joined: November 26, 2004
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Desperate Heart Townie
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As we will almost assuredly hit a mafia member, it's entirely possible that we shouldn't.Locus Cosecant wrote:
IGenocide Heart wrote:And I agree that No Lynch is probably best for day games, but I'd like to get a bit more information first.don'tagree. We have the chance to steal the initiative right out from under the noses of the town, shouldn't we take it?
Not only are we lynching essentially at random, but the town most likely will not lynch one of themselves. This weights the vote heavily towards killing off a mafia member.
So it's really a matter of whether or not you think lynching one of ourselves is worth the extra information we'd gain (And note that we're already getting quite a bit just form the discussion.)-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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A lynch always kills a person 'at random' with the chances initially weighted towards killing a townie (Mafioso in this game, of course) and gradually shifting towards killing a mafia member (Townie in this game, again) as the game goes on (Since we gain more information.)
Regardless of what people post (Unless someone posts something really,reallystupid.) that trend remains the same. The rate at which the odds shift changes from game to game, but later lynches all have a higher chance of hitting than early ones.
Right now, our lynch has almost no chance of hitting. We have information, but the odds start so far in the town's favor that it's not enough to balance things out, so waiting until tomorrow when we have a lot more an the chances start getting fair seems to me like a better idea.
All that said, though, hairy isn't exactly looking scummy right now and we might just get lucky.-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Locus, the odds aren't against us just because there's more mafia than town.
The town know each other's identities, and can both not lynch each other and bandwagon on to mafia members. This makes it even more likely that a lynch will miss, by how much I can't be sure (I should just code a model, but I'm lazy.) but it definitely doesn't help us.
However, since no lynch clearly isn't happening, I'llvote: Hariy Mezican
Ididsay that incredibly towny (What's the adjective in a reversed game?) posts would change the regular statistics.-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Desperate Heart Townie
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- Joined: November 26, 2004
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Whoo! On again.
unvote: melchizadekwhatever. He has the least number of posts, but enough people feel that voting for lurkers at this point is useless to, well, make voting for lurkers at this point useless.
And I still think, with no lynch and lurker votes not an option, that hairy Mezican is the safest lynch.
Vote: Hairy Mezican[i]There is only ONE god:
He is the SUN god:
Ra! Ra! Ra![/i]-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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God damn family vacations are annoying
Anyway, the guys that voted for our confirmed goons are.
bigbenwd
Scalebane
Uraj45
olliep13
Hairy Mezican
lazarusmoth
Darklight140
Quagmire (Goon)
Mastermind of Sin
And the people who voted with the confirmed townie are
ZONEACE (Goon)
bloojay
Locus Cosecant (Goon)
commify
In case we want to consider a townie bandwagon yesterday.
Also, this game looks like it has a whole lot of killing roles.-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Everyone but you on the first list voted for zoneace, and you voted for locus.
The second list, by virtue of being people who voted with melch, only contains people that voted for Coron.
I'd guess that if the towndidvote together most were going for zoneace and we got the odd man out when we vigged (Or SKed) melch. Of the For Zoneace list I'm not entirely sure who's most suspicious though. Whoever's lurking the most, I guess. Or maybe Mezican.
Alternatively, the town tried an unsuccessfull Coron bandwagon and both bloojay and commify are townspeople.
And, of course, it's entirely possible that the town didn't vote as a group. This is probably true for one or two members, but it'd be annoying if it was true for the rest as well (Who didn't vote yesterday?)
Option two is the easiest to test, and gives us two townies if correct, but I think it's also the least likely.
I'll wait on voting for now, though I will get around to this day. We've had a night now so no lynch isn't an option anymore.-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Here's the list of people who voted for a confirmed goon at any point during the game.
Zoneace
bigbenwd
Scalebane
Coron
Uraj45
DarkLight40
HairyMezican
JDTAY
olliep13
PeaceBringer
lazarusmoth
Quagmire
Locus Cosecant
Mastermind of Sin
JDTAY (Early)
Hairy Mezican
Coron
PeaceBringer
lazarusmoth
(No votes were placed on Quagmire)
HairyMezican, Coron, PeaceBringer, JDTAY, and lazarusmoth all appear on both lists (This is most likely because they started on Locus and then moved to Zoneace as the, uh.. "evidence" developed.)
Right now I'm slightly suspicious of everyone who lynched Zoneace, and after rereading the thread a little bit more suspicious of Coron and PeaceBringer, though it may just be because PB's style annoys me.
commify and bloojay have a very good chance of being goons, but I'm gonna be just a teeny tiny bit suspicious of them too. On principle.-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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They're both on HM, who's been a popular target for pretty muchCoron wrote:JDtay and Laz are both on the same person right now. Strong connection there.
FOS: JD and lazarusmotheveryone.
Also, they ended up on different people yesterday, so if they're townies trying to skew a vote they're doing a really awful job of it.-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Yes, this is my first game on the site and I've yet to get used to everyone's style of play. Forgive me.
However, your actions today have been...
Vote JD ("Something needs to happen")
Incorrectly nitpick my list.
Incorrectly nitpick again, confirm vote on JD.
Vote Coron.
Correct previous post by unvoting JD.
Vote Maximus
Correct previous post by unvoting Maximus. Also FOS Coron.
FOS me
Your posts have either been contentless, or votes without explanation (With the exception of the FOS on me.)
At best this accomplishes nothing because it gives us no information, at worst it starts a potentially dangerous bandwagon. So if this is your style, might I ask that you change it?-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Desperate Heart Townie
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I'm trying toMaximus wrote:MOS is just getting frustrated now. I think we found our scum. Lynch him.notget to the point where I'm equally suspicious of so many people it becomes impossible to play properly.
That didn't help.
And it feels like the same group of maybe 4-6 people have been doing all the talking today. I'm with MoS in wanting to hear from everyone else.-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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MoS for constantly jumping around to different people, and getting frustrated when explaining his choices.
Maximus forveryaggressively pushing an MoS lynch.
PeaceBringer for jumping around to different people and not bothering to explain at all.
Coron for, christ, I can't even remember now.
Me for posting a lot without ever supporting anything with a vote.
A whole lot of people for hardly being active.[i]There is only ONE god:
He is the SUN god:
Ra! Ra! Ra![/i]-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Right. Because you weren't pushing MoS before the deadline at all.Maximus wrote:I'm just trying to get somebody lynched today because it's day 2 DEADLINED. Our odds are better with lynching the most suspicious/frustrated person right now than sitting there our hands folded hoping somebody trips.
And FYI, I wasn't claiming. Take what you must out of that or any of my other posts.
We're better off lynching the most suspiciou person, but right now you and MoS are pretty much tied.-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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Maximus and MoS are both suspicious, but it's likely that at least one of them is a goon (Unless it's an evil townie plot to divide us! Adjust your tinfoil hats, gentleman.)
PeaceBringer is suspicious too, but I really wouldn't mind lynching him even if I'm wrong since the way he plays isn't at all helpful (Unless he has a night ability, but I don't have that information.)[i]There is only ONE god:
He is the SUN god:
Ra! Ra! Ra![/i]-
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Desperate Heart Townie
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- Joined: November 26, 2004
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Desperate Heart Townie
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- Joined: November 26, 2004
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Desperate Heart Townie
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- Joined: November 26, 2004
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Desperate Heart Townie
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- Joined: November 26, 2004
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