Micro 1039: The Coalition [game over!]

[Umlaut]

Hi, just got home after a five-hour flight and not in the mood to start thinking about Mafia yet, just posting so you know I'm here.

[Umlaut]

HEAL: Galton

Strong gutread from #6.

HEAL: Esther

I saw what others saw with Esther''s seemingly "forced" tone/style, but their immediately copping to it being forced with zero self-consciousness makes that a lot better for me. Take it away and what's left is some good, fairly thoughtful early reads.

[Umlaut]

Got prodded, honestly keep forgetting I joined a game, reading now

[Umlaut]

HEAL: Umlaut

Might as well. I'm willing in principle to vote for a coalition that doesn't contain me but last I checked there wasn't enough consensus to start negotiating that

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Andante

ISO is almost 100% fluff through 54, the reasons suspicion in 55 don't make any sense to me (and apparently doesn't make any sense to Andante either since she immediately says "it's okay because esther isn't voting"(????) and backs off it), and then 67-68 are just meta-discussion.

[Umlaut]

Looker (happy birthday, Looker!) caught my eye because their style seems very different from in the past couple of games I've played with them, but I've been away for a bit and also style is just style so I think I'm best ignoring that and just trying to read them as a blank slate.

In those terms, Looker seems... pretty good, actually. Immediately making proposals for the coalition in 11, even if just in RVS style, is probably a good thing. I particularly like 49 which indicates a thought process unlikely to occur to scum; scum are more likely using their votes to

signal

something about themselves, and not looking for clever ways to use it most efficiently to

do

something. There is also a certain freedom of tone in just outright saying "I'm doing this so I can procrastinate" that I usually don't expect from scum. Their other posts are just okay -- not good, not bad -- so on net I've got to call them town. I guess they're voting me because I've been inactive, which is fair, though I hope they can find something better to go on eventually.

The paranoia center of my brain is saying that in my other games Looker has always seemed scummy and in fact been town and maybe I should worry more about what that implies if they seem towny, but I'll ignore that and

HEAL: Looker

[Umlaut]

^ Good questions from Looker. I'm looking at MBot and not really seeing anything to like. I do understand the feeling behind 35 (which is another reason to townread Esther) but I don't think "that's not a good enough reason to say someone is scum" is a good enough reason to say they're town, and that's all I'm really seeing in 83.

I actually think MBot seemingly disappearing makes what there is of her ISO look worse, in that if she were barely interested in the game I'd expect from an unselfconscious town perspective a simple "I'll get to this later" or whatever instead of a full paragraph of trying to look engaged without engaging.

Comments on the remaining players:

• ProHawk looks okay, nothing in particular catches my eye to sway me one way or the other. 74 is a decent observation but not an alignment-indicative one because an apparent contradiction is not a hard thing to pick up and I think scum who noticed it would still point it out.
  
  
• Enchant is likewise just fine, don't see the argument that they're hard town, more like gun-to-my-head town.
  
  
• I like that T3 went along with my point about Esther and switched directions so readily there; at that point if he were scum I'd expect him to take the excuse to argue with me just to have something to talk about. In past games T3 played fairly erratically which made him hard to read and this could in principle be what's going on here but regardless I think I like him for town.

HEAL: T3

Readlist:

{Looker, mc esther}

{Galron, T3}

{ProHawk, Enchant}

{MBot, Andante}

This is actually a really tidy list!

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Andante
HURT: T3
HEAL: Umlaut

Are you just sheeping me on this vote or do you see something independently?

[Umlaut]

Thanks for the answer, Looker.

If MBot is scum, why are you voting mc esther. If you're voting mc esther, why have you coalition'd mc esther.

Okay yeah that is really weird.

[Umlaut]

I think the consensus is Enchant is town in addition to Looker. So three more.

Does someone want to sell me on this consensus about Enchant? So far they've been solidly

meh

for me, none of their posts really move me one way or the other.

Also, Galron, why would you decide to heal based on what the consensus is? Why not say what

you

think of Enchant and why?

[Umlaut]

Prodge, COVID booster is kicking my butt, Andante is still scum

[Umlaut]

Liking Enchant more for town, could be happy with them in coalition.

This is sort of a dodge, looks like a lot has happened and I'm too lazy to read but will try to give a real update tomorrow

[Umlaut]

We might as well just vote for people at this point, no one is going to come to a consensus.

VOTE: Enchant

we almost literally have galron/looker/enchant locked in — galron imo is clearly gonna come back around on looker, and umlaut's said theyll probably come around on enchant, that's five. the "there's no consensus we cant do it" line of thought only benefits scum here.

Esther calling out what I saw before I could say it.

UNVOTE:
I feel like we have a strong chance of winning this by coalitioning correctly.

[Umlaut]

I actually prefer Enchant to T3 right now too.
HURT: T3
HEAL: Enchant

[Umlaut]

Update post

175 (Prohawk) - I liked this post for several minutes because it seemed to show some effort at sorting, but after a few rereads I realized the mechanism fundamentally doesn't make any sense. We're going to sort people based on a characteristic (self-healing) that we all know is just as useful for any alignment because "scum might do it to look town because town would do it"? Hogwash.

Enchant comes out looking better in the followup exchange than Prohawk does.

184 (Enchant) - I don't understand what "mafia trying to follow waves" means and I don't see any reason to think Esther is maf.

198 (Esther) - strong agree that whether or not Enchant's posts are ultimately useful content-wise they demonstrate a town perspective.

199 (Esther) and the followup theorycrafting discussion: I think assuming scum are so doctrinaire in their planning as to even have a significant preference for one vs. two in coalition is probably a mistake. Speaking for myself, as scum I am generally allergic to plans more complex than "look town, shoot the biggest threats, frame a few townies, win the game" and the only thought I would give to who 'should' be in the coalition is that at least one of me or my hypothetical buddy would have to be so we don't insta-lose. The only sense in which "it's more likely only one scum is in the coalition," in my opinion, is that assuming town do better than random at sorting, a person chosen for the coalition is therefore more likely to be town.

209 (T3) - You don't think scum!Prohawk does

what,

exactly?

214 (Looker) - makes sense to me even if it's not exactly how I'm using my heals; making an effort to be transparent is good.

I like the analysis in Post 102 moreso than the HEAL, which is ironic because you thought I was sheeping you on Andante so you probably feel some type of way about blind faith as well. You're another player I'm comfortable being wrong about. I'd rather be wrong about a scum that put in the effort (like Ame in Purgatory), than one who coasts with no content and wins with no effort. Hoping you're not scum, though.

Actually saying "No, I'm just sheeping you" would have been fine, I don't think recognizing a good (or even just okay) case and following it without adding your own thoughts is a bad thing necessarily. I was more just trying to see where your vote was coming from at all.

228 (Esther) - gives me town vibes I can't explain.

229 (MBot) - don't like it. Too much self-justification: "I'm very obviously a newb and still getting used to figuring out reads..." + "Maybe I get triggered by early 'I'm town.' statements..." looks like MBot cares a lot to have her posts be

acceptable

. Worrying too much about low content from a player like T3 also seems like easy commentary to make, which is okay in itself but doesn't help the post overall.

Can we chat about Enchant tho?

Who do you suggest I replace them with?

MBot, or possibly Andante.

I could compromise with you on Galron

This post merits a revisit if ProHawk turns out to be scum (I'm not totally sold on this but it's a possibility for me), making a note of it for now.

243 (Esther) - interested in hearing why ProHawk isn't a plausible Andante buddy but it's not a priority today.

251 (Esther) - this is good townposting. I think Esther's thoughts on ProHawk are too... nuanced? don't have the right word... to come from a scum-faking-it perspective. And I think making this point

so everyone will see it

and not just to cast aspersion on ProHawk is just not the sort of motive that immediately comes to mind if you are making things up. I am very comfortable calling Esther my top townread.

Stopping here for now, this post is getting very long. I think my coalition as it stands is the right one. Ask me questions if you have 'em.

[Umlaut]

My current coalition is {Umlaut, Looker, Enchant, mc esther, Galron}. Could sub T3 for someone on this list (most likely Galron, I guess? idk) if that's the way things go. Not interested in coalitioning any of Prohawk, MBot, or Andante.

Esther is absolutely bleeding town and should be in any coalition worth the name.

[Umlaut]

It's the kind of hypocrisy that I think more likely comes from town, tbh.

[Umlaut]

Too scum to be scum, mk got it.

Way to twist my words. Did I say hypocrisy is scummy? Do you think being hypocritical is a scum trait in general?

[Umlaut]

HURT: Galton
HEAL: T3

Looker's right. On balance I think I still like Galron better for town but I'm pretty comfortable with this.

[Umlaut]

Being non genuine, hell yes

I don't see doing X while also suspecting someone for doing X as non-genuine, just maybe shortsighted. People often are blind to their own behavior and of course, if town, they know they are town and aren't about to accuse themselves. Scum who want to

look

town are more likely to be conscious of their behavior and, I think, less likely to do the sorts of things they call out others for doing.

"It's okay when I do it though" is the most natural, human thought in the world and not evidence of artificiality.

[Umlaut]

oh no my pagetop

[Umlaut]

ooooh confident enough to put coalitions 1 away from being hammered... but not leave it there? suspicious

What scum motivation do you assign to Enchant's behavior? It's not enough to just say it's weird.

[Umlaut]

Nice! Kind of got lucky there with Galron's V/LA being the only reason we swapped T3 into the coalition.

I won the game and my strongest scum read was scum, I'm calling this a complete success.