Mini 697: Prisoner's Dilemma Mafia {Game Over!}

[icemanE]

/confirm

[icemanE]

send: humscunter

because even though I get it, it still sounds like some kind of disturbing sex toy.

[icemanE]

Sounds like an awfully fun round of "connect the dots" or "color by numbers". But it's worth a try, even if it's boring.

[icemanE]

Carncarn = godfather.

[icemanE]

I wasn't aware there could be NK's.

See what I mean? I'm telling you, he's the GF. Why else would he be so eager to send himself first, along with the person who cooked up the plot to clear townies.

[icemanE]

Maybe I'm an idiot, but I reread the rules and didn't see anything about night kills. Maybe you can point it out for me, godfather?

[icemanE]

There is nothing about NKs implicitly stated in the rules. Just because there are "other" actions to protect from besides investigation does not mean they're night kills.

even if I were GF, I couldn't possibly fake a guilty on someone else.

Who said anything about that? I meant you going to jail and getting investigated would turn up an innocent on you if you're godfather.

I'm pretty sure you're scum, btw.

With a vote, here we'd have OMGUS. No reasoning behind this.

[icemanE]

You don't get investigated when you go to jail; you get investigative powers if both of you choose "No"
If I were GF, or any other scum for that matter, I wouldn't be able to fake a guilty because it would get me killed the next day.

Like I said, I never said anything about faking a guilty. What I'm saying is, following spring's plan (unless I'm misreading it or misunderstanding it), when you and spring (if you're the two that go to jail) cross investigate each other, spring will find you innocent if you're the godfather.

Well, with doc protection and the fact that the prisoners can't be night targeted, I assumed it was clear there would be NKs.

There are plenty of roles which do something other than NK - so I'm not convinced I buy what you're saying.

[icemanE]

Since he was my lover in an old game and hasn't called since, I am going to also send: IcemanE

I lost your number, I swear.

Are you saying or do you think we should be trying to send townies to interrogations instead of scum to avoid scum getting daykills?

To me it seems like the general idea is to avoid sending

two scum at once

, but really only late in the game. It seems to me scum wouldn't out themselves for two daykills on night one, but that's definitely something to be wary of later in the game.

[icemanE]

Here's a potential amendment to the plan - we should probably send one of the players back to jail for a second consecutive night, i.e.:

N1 - send hum and ABR
- They investigate each other (A note - it's DAYCOP investigation)
N2 - send ABR and Tony
- They investigate each other

...and so on, to prevent two scum from "clearing" each other with daycop investigations.

Thoughts?

[icemanE]

unsend humscunter

send: Crazy
send: OP

Those two seem random enough to justify sending. I don't think we should send spring tonight, as she came up with the plan.

[icemanE]

Are you sure it's random?

The two people DoS selected seemed random enough, yes, so I thought they'd be good picks. I agree with sending anyone but Spring, though.

[icemanE]

Carn is right about the myriad loopholes in this plan, btw.

[icemanE]

unsend: OP - send: Tony

Let's get this show on the road.

[icemanE]

OP, why did you unsend Tony Montana?

This is a good question.

[icemanE]

@Red - in this setup it's daycop investigations.

If I knew how to do the dice roll command, I would.

[icemanE]

There's a dice button in the reply page, with instruction on how to use it.

And sadly I'm two stupid to understand it.

[icemanE]

Original Roll String: 2d12

2 12-Sided Dice: (2, 2) = 4

[icemanE]

YES I OVERCAME MY DISABILITY!

unsend: Tony - send: sly

Dice say crazy and sly.

[icemanE]

Put this between the dice brackets:

2d12

[icemanE]

Can we all agree on sending OP? That works for me.

unsend: sly - vote: Orangepenguin

[icemanE]

In case it matter, EBWOP:

unsend - sly
send: OP

[icemanE]

Spring shouldn't be sent

specifically because

it was his idea.

[icemanE]

OK so spring's plan is more or less null and void, which pretty much brings us back to square one. From now on it seems to make sense to me that we should send at least one person we find scummy each night, if possible. What I mean to say is that it probably shouldn't be random anymore. The Yes/No mechanic makes it nearly impossible to guarantee a good outcome even if we do send someone we think is scummy, though - anyone else have any ideas?

[icemanE]

@ OP - forgot to ask, did you still get daycop power or not?

[icemanE]

Then what is the sense of this game?

I wouldn't say there's no sense in it, it just can't be broken as easily as you assumed. I for one am glad it's more complicated than it seemed at first, because if all it took to beat the setup was your plan, how fun would that be?

[icemanE]

I advocate sending OP again - I'd like to piece together whether or not he has anything to do with this break-in. Seems like it'd be a lot easier to "break in" if you're already "in". I think we should send Spring now because of this:

If we all decide to send any suspected of being scum, I am going to send Spring again as I still believe the plan to be intended town distraction.

He might be right.

send: OP
send: Spring

[icemanE]

I think it's probably worth sending you again for the info and because last night's efforts weren't successful - it could easily have been a mafia buddy of yours breaking in to save you from interrogation.

[icemanE]

I'm personally going to need more of an argument than "she was trying to come up with a plan... the plan didn't work so she must be mafia".

We aren't lynching her. We're sending her to jail.

[icemanE]

I will be glad to point the scumminess out if anyone is interested.

I'd like to see what you have to say, as I also have no clue why you've been selected.

[icemanE]

When you send someone, specify whether you find them scummy or not and for what reasons.

OP - Scummy, but only because of the events of last night (the break-in).

Spring - Suspicious, because of the oversimplified plan.

[icemanE]

Iceman, you defended that plan, why am I the one to be suspected of it?

I defended it before someone broke in and killed a prisoner - I also expressed doubts about it at the end of Day 1 - the game is clearly more complicated than we assumed, and the simplicity of your plan comes off as suspect. There's always the chance - and it's entirely possible that this is the case - that you were just as uninformed about the complexity of the game as we were.

[icemanE]

Let me rephrase - in many armies across space and time, generals are punished, in one way or another, for their failings. Aztec generals were executed - Japanese generals committed suicide - Roman generals were exiled. This is an effective way to control an organization, and it minimizes the risk of potential sabotage or overall weakness in structure.

Plus, we're not killing you, we're putting you away for a night. If you turn up dead tomorrow it'll be a different story.

[icemanE]

@Sly - If you read my posts you'll know why I changed my mind. Spring's plan clearly isn't valid anymore now that we know there's more to the game than we originally thought.

I never thought prisoners investigated each other while in prison - that's what they do with their DAYCOP ability... DAYCOP. Not JAILCOP. I'm not sure how you missed that one.

[icemanE]

Actually, I'm not so sure that being sent to jail doesn't help scum. Think about it - even if scum say yes, or even if scum are investigated and found to be guilty... the only thing we can do about it is send them to jail, we don't have lynches. Once a scum is found out, he can continually say "yes", and has a chance of defeating the other player in P-R-S. If he wins, the next day he has either doc protection (which makes him unkillable), prisoner immunity (which means our only means of dispensing with him is nullified), or a double vote, and all of those things are great for scum. I guess my question is, how are we supposed to kill scum beyond gambling on the P-R-S system in order to defeat them?

The best possible scenario I can envision is this:

We send two suspected TOWNIES to jail every night - they both pick no until they come up with guilty reports - we continue to send those townies, and they pick the 50% daykills, then use them on the guilties. This, to me, seems more effective than sending scum to jail where our only chance is a gamble.

With that in mind I'm going to

unsend - everyone

while you guys digest.

PS - I would be willing to go to jail to test my theory.

[icemanE]

Erh, you do realize that that is basically my plan and the one we put to use yesterday right? You do realize that you not a moment ago you were criticizing me for it right?

More or less, but my point is we should actively avoid sending scum if at all possible. So in that way it's quite different.

[icemanE]

Iceman, your plan won't work. Because...when will we kill the scum lol? Once they've had majority? There's no time to day-cop everyone one by one...ffs.

Here's the thing: we don't need to day cop everybody. As long as people keep dying at night, we'll have less people to investigate. Since it's daycop, we don't have to worry about wasted investigations since we'll be investigating people who are alive during the day. Once we get a good number of people investigated, and in reality we'd only need to check two people outside of the investigators themselves, we'll have very good odds of catching scum. How do we kill them, you ask? With this, if both prisoners pick no:

Both X and Y chooses one of these: daycop investigation, doc protection (may self-protect), 50% daykill next day.

So that's how.

Anyways, like Spring says:

What do you make of the NK then?

I have no idea what to make of it. Obviously if our prisoners are going to continue to get murdered while in jail there's no way for us to win, so I'm gonna go ahead and assume that's not happening every night, and investigating OP to see if he's scum who has some sort of ability to secretly kill once he's in jail will help clear that up. That's why I don't want to send him anymore, we should investigate him instead. Honestly I cannot envision an in-jail NK happening every night, or else what the heck are we supposed to do?

Anyone who's got a better idea, speak up. I'm not sending anyone until we've got this figured out.

[icemanE]

Well if the general town concensus is that my plan is invalid, so be it. But ABR, what do you mean by "play it as we go?" How are we going to get anywhere? What do we do from here?

[icemanE]

But the problem is there's all kinds of strategy that goes on at night. Both players have to evaluate - do we think the other player is scum? What should I pick, yes or no? I mean, don't we have to have some kind of basic plan?

[icemanE]

I'm fine with sending scummy players to jail tonight, it's worth the info, I suppose.

send: OP

for last night.

send: Sly

for making a case I think was a pretty big stretch.

[icemanE]

you just put both of them at L-1

Actually I put both of them at L-2. And it's S-2.

[icemanE]

I'm referring to Sly's post 207. I think his points are pretty unfounded considering the lack of information the town has.

Can someone tell me how to link to a specific post?

[icemanE]

It was mostly what you said about Carn that set me off. Everyone is as confused as everyone else, and contradictions are clearly going to abound in this game - at the moment I don't even know whether sending scummy players is a good idea or not, and regardless of what happens tonight, tomorrow is going to be full of WIFOM because no one knows what's going on in this game - so you can't really hold that against someone. I still can't see how sending two scum in together wouldn't be great for the scum, enabling them to fake investigations, get potential daykill and doc powers, and mislead the town for the rest of the game - but at the same time sending a scummy player and a players we think is town is equally bad - there really doesn't seem to be a right answer here IMO. Everyone seems to think trying to get the scum in jail is the best course of action, and that's worth a try, I suppose.

But to answer your question more directly, I think your case on Carn was unfounded and your case on me was a stretch. If we're sending scummy players that's good enough for me.

[icemanE]

Right, Sly - just to gain some clarity here, do

you

think sending two scum to jail is good or bad? I need to know that in order to clarify my point.

[icemanE]

I agree with everything TCS said, especially:

-I see no reason to treat this as if we were playing a real mafia game and lynching scummy people. We need to figure out how the hell we intend to kill scum before we can play with a goal in mind. We don't know that sending scum leads to dead scum yet, and until we do we're groping in the dark, and I see The Plan as our best bet going forward.

That's more or less what I've been trying to get at.

[icemanE]

This is clearly different, Carn. At the moment I see no reliable way of dispensing with scum even when we do find them. Finding out how to do that should obviously be our first priority.

[icemanE]

Now that I think of it, we probably aren't going to learn anything if OP goes again. I highly doubt he'd be ballsy enough to kill while in prison again on two consecutive nights.

unsend: OP

.

[icemanE]

send: Carncarn

ABR knows what's up.

[icemanE]

So, the scum might not kill tonight and you think this is a bad thing?? FoS: icemanE

Sending OP would be a bad thing, yes. Did you read what I said or are you just twisting my words? It'd be nice if you wouldn't do that anymore. That was clearly not what I meant to imply.

Also, both of you have already been hammered. Say yes tonight.

[icemanE]

You didn't explain why it's bad. All you said was that he might not kill tonight if he's sent to jail. How is that bad?

Like I said, read what I've said. The whole reason for sending OP to jail was to see if there was another NK while he was in there - AKA, is he scum killing from the inside. As I said, he probably wouldn't be dumb enough to do that. And if there was another break in while OP was in there, it could be scum trying a frame. Or it could be OP assuming we'd assume it was a frame.

See, WIFOM city. So therefore there's no point in sending OP, as it won't give us anything useful.

[icemanE]

That's ridiculous. Why wouldn't he kill? It's not like we can do anything about it anyway since we don't know for sure how to eliminate him even if he is scum.

WIFOM.

[icemanE]

This leaves me further from figuring out what the F is going on here than I was yesterday.

Umm, I

think

I agree that the vig or sniper or whatever should speak up... but... I'm not sure...

Let's talk this over first. Anyone else want to weigh in?

[icemanE]

Definitely gonna need to revise our plan if you're planning on shooting tonight, KoC. We've only got 7 alive. I will mull this over today and see what I come up with.

[icemanE]

Query - if we think OP is scum who can kill the other prisoner, why are we putting him in jail?

I'm still totally unsure of whether we should be sending scum to jail or not. Personally, I think the best method for dealing with someone we think is scum, as of right now, is to have KoC shoot them. Therefore, we shouldn't send OP - KoC should shoot him.

Makes sense?

[icemanE]

I think Seraphim is onto something. One daycop and one 50% kill seems like the ideal combination. I really feel like sending two town players to jail so they can equip themselves with superpowers

and

(excluding the N1 break-in) be protected from NK seems ideal.

The Central Scrutinizer
springlullaby
Seraphim

orangepenguin

Knight of Cydonia

icemanE
RedCoyote

I'll update that list as I do a reread. As of now I know I don't want to send OP or KoC. I'll look through the rest.

[icemanE]

After a readthrough I'm OK with sending Seraphim.

send: Seraphim

I'm still looking for another, no one stood out as being oustandingly pro or anti-town so it'll take some closer reading, I think.

Another question though. Now that NoC's vest is gone, how do we all propose to protect him from scum? Unless there is a doctor role among us, which would make a lot of sense.

- Red - don't rolefish.

[icemanE]

KoC has a provable claim.

[icemanE]

I'm fine with going in tonight as long as we make sure we have the plan established before we end the day.

In my opinion this is the ideal set of events:

1. KoC shoots OP.
2. Seraphim and myself

both choose no

tonight and one of us chooses the daycop, while the other chooses the 50% chance kill.
3. We do an investigation on the remaining players, and decide where to move from there.

As far as I can tell this is the best course of action. Nothing I have seen this game has suggested to me that there's a better way of doing this than sending two townies.

send: IcemanE

[icemanE]

That's so incomprehensibly weak.

[icemanE]

Yeah, our plan was pretty straightforward. I was planning on taking the daykill, and im sure sera was too. I was the godfather, so i knew i'd never have to worry about being found guilty, which was nice. Wish we'd used the escape kit.

For a few minutes I was actually thinking about saying yes, since I knew sera would have said no. Since I'm godfather I sort of figured I'd have an easy cruise to victory if i killed a scum, but that could have flipped on me, too.

[icemanE]

The mafia was overpowered methink and the town's win was kinda random.

Hmm, I would disagree. You have to keep in mind that we only had 4 total night kills between us, one of those being the break0in kill we used on the first night. Otherwise, we had to have at least one scum out of prison each night in order to make a kill, so think about what would have happened after last night. The NKs wouldn't have happened, then we'd be out of jail, then they would have started again - that would have been tough to play off. Yes, we had the Super police chief kit and the breakout kit, but those are both pretty much death wishes after last night.

I loved this setup and had a lot of fun playing, but I wish there was another mechanism of deciding the outcome of the "both say Yes" situation. For example, a protown judge role, perhaps?