Micro 1052: Lake Melancholy [END]

[fireisredsir]

Revise to maybe vpb -> dwlee -> ceph

This was just really ugh

wasn't this what it always was

[fireisredsir]

I'm town because if I was scum I would never commit myself to sheeping you

you might if your partner wasn't on the list. but i doubt it anyway

[fireisredsir]

well, sorry for not following you ari

[fireisredsir]

hi oops sorry dwlee i didn't think there would be a pt cop when at least 5 people are in hoods. maybe it would have been good to claim it anyway but idk

we were in hood from the start but im not a neighbor and i don't think enchant is either ?? idk why exactly

[fireisredsir]

we discussed fakeclaiming masons lol but it was a joke

at least i think it was a joke

so no, not really. i thought there was some potential benefit to it being hidden but it's not a big deal

[fireisredsir]

I thought pt cop was obvious in this setup, and that it had to be dwlee ...

why did it have to be dwlee

[fireisredsir]

this is what i get for joining a game with a bunch of people smarter than me

i should just sheep more tbh

[fireisredsir]

still kinda think it could be vp lol

willing to vote in vp/shuichi rn but can wait for whatever setup spec is happening

[fireisredsir]

i thought it could be dwlee before the claim. but idk why they claim that as scum here? especially if it's so obvious that there will be a town TA/PT cop type role then they would think they'd just get CC'd

enchant could be yea but ive been thinking their claim is likely true. if multiple people better at setup spec tell me that its more likely to be a scum role here or that the claim isn't real then sure

[fireisredsir]

it also could be you! but on play that feels less likely than the other two imo

[fireisredsir]

well yeah they couldn't be really, unless they're informed that enchant is in a hood or something. but you think its possible to be a scum role here?

[fireisredsir]

i have a hard time believing you're seriously asking this in good faith lol

[fireisredsir]

we joked about mason claiming. idk about enchant but i would never do that lol. i slightly trusted enchant after they claimed in thread, bc i leaned towards believing the claim, and after that we talked about a couple potential gambits, but decided it wasn't necessary or a good idea

nowhere really were we that trusting of each other, we haven't used the hood much

[fireisredsir]

hardclaim not masons

[fireisredsir]

yea true ari said the only two viable partners for prism were VP and shuichi after seeing you 1v1 prism, she must not have had a town mindset

[fireisredsir]

yea true ari said the only two viable partners for prism were VP and shuichi after seeing you 1v1 prism, she must not have had a town mindset

wait you even got me to say it was a 1v1 smh

reminder that it was not at all a 1v1. ari talked about this in better words than I did here: 1587 and 1590, explaining how you trying to frame it as a 1v1 has a clear motivation in a world where you are partners with prism

[fireisredsir]

she obv thought shuichi was most likely, yes. i don't think she ever said she didn't think you were scum. in 2094 she says the partners are you or shuichi. the only thing that changes is she becomes more confident in it being shuichi as of 2210. i don't think there's any reason to think that you wouldn't still be her 2nd choice if it isn't shuichi

[fireisredsir]

like yea it probably just is shuichi, but it's worth considering other possibilities imo

[fireisredsir]

especially bc if shuichi is town and flips today, and then skitter dies tonight, suddenly things get a lot harder if it is scum vp. since dwlee thinks you're town (i think?), and you can prob convince datisi in the hood to vote me instead of you. and i have no idea what enchant thinks. so we might just lose after having the game basically handed to us on d1

ofc maybe shuichi just flips scum and it's over but im worried ok

[fireisredsir]

"things get a lot harder (for town) if it is scum vp"

if things got harder for scum!vp then why would i care lmao, we win either way

the point is that there is a clear possible path to a town loss if you are scum, which i am concerned about

[fireisredsir]

im paranoid of a world where you are scum and end up in elo with like datisi and enchant, yes

i do like your use of the tactic of arguing with someone and potentially deliberately misunderstanding their point in order to make them keep restating it and then later you can be like "you made such a big deal out of this and its not even a good point!" just like you did earlier with the point about you not partner reading me and prism

its actually p clever ima use that in the future

[fireisredsir]

This also looks like smear. Why are you reading my play with such malice?

i scumread you, and i don't see much town motivation behind a lot of the things you've done

[fireisredsir]

i have been referred to as relaxed yet sassy

[fireisredsir]

i also made lots of those kind of posts to titus when i had a guilty on her lol so yea it probably is overconfidence

[fireisredsir]

i have been referred to as relaxed yet sassy

Hmm, I don't remember you being sassy to me. I consider you almost too polite as town

cause i thought you were kinda scary before

now i know better

[fireisredsir]

if you're trying to get me to change my mind on you, its working, so you'd better stop

[fireisredsir]

i think we probably do too but im allowed to have a backup plan

[fireisredsir]

lim vp?

[fireisredsir]

i am obsessed it's true

[fireisredsir]

no.

[fireisredsir]

my reads have changed significantly. i didn't think it was ceph yesterday. i did think it was likely dwlee yesterday. prism flip affected both of those (and dwlee's claim)

notice that you don't even comment how skitter has basically the same reads and the same poe that i do. you don't care about that cause she's not a viable mislim target

[fireisredsir]

my reads have changed significantly. i didn't think it was ceph yesterday. i did think it was likely dwlee yesterday. prism flip affected both of those (and dwlee's claim)

notice that you don't even comment how skitter has basically the same reads and the same poe that i do. you don't care about that cause she's not a viable mislim target

You wanted to kill me yesterday. Skitter wanted to kill me yesterday. One of you adjusted your worldview based upon the prism flip. I will allow a 30 minute time limit to solve for X.

skitter still wants to kill you too lmao did you miss that

[fireisredsir]

Like, you can say you want ceph today, and that's cool, but I get the sense from your posting that if someone would just support my wagon beyond ceph, you'd be all over it.

absolutely true bc i think if you're scum and you live through today then you kill skitter and win

ceph scum never wins here

[fireisredsir]

i think looking through vp's iso and seeing how much of his energy he has devoted to talking about himself and convincing people that he's town (it's like at least 70%) and how little energy he has devoted to actually solving or hunting scum or trying to convince people to go along with his scumreads... it's actually kinda nutty that it's worked so well on most of this game

[fireisredsir]

absolutely true bc i think if you're scum and you live through today then you kill skitter and win

You keep saying this and it still makes no sense.

In ELO like that, I think datisi nukes me 10/10 times due to paranoia.

probably, yeah. but does enchant? or whoever else is left? i have no clue! probably not!

[fireisredsir]

saying you can't be scum because you caught both scum. cool cool love the logic there

in case you didn't figure out why thats wrong

in the scenario where you are scum, you are scum, and therefore you cannot claim credit for catching both scum because the other one is not in fact in your poe, it is you

[fireisredsir]

Remember how I said earlier skitter could be logically right but scum

VP here can be logically wrong and town right now

this is true, he isn't scum due to being wrong. im just saying he can't claim towncred for it

[fireisredsir]

ok so if we flip shuichi and me you're just gonna be like "oh oops everyone left is someone i townbinned! gg guys, guess the last scum must be me!"?

[fireisredsir]

saying that you poe'd yourself into a loss as if a mid day 1 readlist will have any weight when it comes to elo is ridiculous

[fireisredsir]

anyway whats my plan if im scum here then? my poe is literally just you and shuichi

[fireisredsir]

i don't have a lot of mental energy to play mafia rn (or to do anything!), and i also don't think its really useful to anyone to like go back and forth point by point on what vp has said cause let's be honest nobody is gonna want to read that

but a few things worth responding to:

1) 2536 - no? i didn't read your post as an attack on prism at all so how can it be a defense. your post felt like the opposite, like you were mediating and trying to calm down a TvT to get on the good side of the people in it, in a way that felt scummy (i think its how you used the word "we"). i was calling you out for that. ofc now i know it wasn't a TvT so the original point is wrong but still

2) 2540 - we're not getting into this again but the whole point was that i wanted to see if you would call out that post and you didn't. i thought it was scummy for you not to. so... just, no.

3) 2541 - makes no sense. i could see a valid argument for saying that it was TMI if prism flipped town. but she didn't. my point was that i thought a prism-fire team should clearly make no sense to anyone reading the thread. and that's why you didn't want to bring it up as a possibility even though it was clearly what your solve was, because then you'd have to defend it when it's like not viable at all. i do accept that i do have TMI of me being town and maybe that is biasing me to make me think it should look more impossible than it is. but man i would just have to be like completely ignoring any of prism's advice to play like that d1 as her partner. a lot of this point did actually depend on prism being town bc i thought she would call you out for it if she was. so since she's not, it doesn't really have any weight anymore

4) 2550 - uhhh, yes, ofc? that is one of the things that made me hesitant on shuichi and he obv looks a lot worse on that point after a prism scumflip

[fireisredsir]

also despite the bad points made i do like that you actually finally put your effort into hunting and casing who you think is scum

and i think your self towncase is actually somewhat good

so idk

[fireisredsir]

I just want cephrir dead pls

yea ok probably

my biggest concern with it is that i think it would have been extremely short sighted d1 play for that scumteam. and prism clearly knew she was likely to get flipped early on, if not d1 then d2. i find it kinda hard to believe that they just set themselves up to just lose as soon as she flips?? but maybe im overthinking things, idk

[fireisredsir]

tru i did think of something along those lines, ig i could buy that they were going all in on trying to get a skitter or vp flip and delaying the prism flip to d2, which allows ceph to position better

but then prism kind of was the one to push her own lim through at the time that it happened, even when vp was probably still possible. that was what made me think it still could be vp bc at the time when prism flipped, the gamestate was such that ceph looks way worse than vp. so it felt kind of like a "ok the gamestate is where i want it to be now, so lock it in before it changes again". and that makes no sense with ceph scum cause he's in an awful position

but then maybe its all mindgames ahhhh

[fireisredsir]

or maybe they had just accepted the game as lost at that point, idk. doesn't feel super likely, but possible

[fireisredsir]

ok i looked at how the day ended since i was just going off memory and hadn't really wanted to look at it again.

starting point:

Prism [3]:

VP Baltar, Aristeia, Dwlee99

VP Baltar [2]:

fireisredsir, Prism,

Dwlee99 [1]:

Enchant,

fireisredsir [1]:

Datisi

Not Voting [2]:

Shuichi Saihara, Skitter30

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to

fade

.

enchant votes VP in 2178. prism is shocked and confused. suddenly a VP elim seems possible. shuichi and skitter both want to vote there but haven't yet.

shuichi puts vp at e-1 in 2205. enchant immediately unvotes. skitter is present, asks if we're ready to end the day (implication being with a vp elim).

ari zeroes in on ceph/prism as the team and spends most of the next page talking about that team. prism says she wants the day to end and votes draw. dwlee and ari are begging for prism votes.

in 2253 skitter gives in and says she'll vote prism. prism immediately takes that, says she wants out, and selfvotes. day is essentially over now.



this is why i felt like the day end was intentionally timed by prism. it was a fast turnaround, from being so close to a VP flip to instead pushing herself through. i had the timeline slightly wrong in my memory, though. i thought prism turned once the vp elim looked suddenly most likely, and so she was protecting her partner, knowing that her flip was much better for their chances. but thats not quite right, she did seem to want the day to end and voted draw at that point, but she didn't fully turn until after skitter switched to being willing to vote her.

maybe they did overcommit to VP, and then once skitter turned and ari was convinced on ceph as partner it was just over? thats the simple answer, i guess. idk. i still kinda feel like ceph was set up to fall here, but the fact that prisms actions seem to indicate more of an actual willingness to flip vp than i thought makes me hesitant there too.

[fireisredsir]

enchant's vote vp and then unvote is kinda strange but im not sure if i can follow the scum narrative there

enchant trying to save prism, prism yells at enchant in the PT to let her die and not look too obvious in voting VP bc town will prob just chain lim the hood after the prism flip and enchant can just coast? maybe that is possible??

[fireisredsir]

wolfy poppins

how can anyone think this is scum tbh

look at it

wolfy poppins

[fireisredsir]

not really. it could be on vp but i figured it doesn't really matter

this seemed like more of a talking day than a voting day, yk

[fireisredsir]

sorry for dragging that out lmaooo wp people who actually caught scum

[fireisredsir]

Fire, my boy, one day you will be able to read me

someday!!!

i know there were times that were unpleasant for some people but i had fun this game, playing with so many strong players was both a challenge and made things really interesting, if a bit intense sometimes

ty for modding and for playing, would gladly play with you all again