[SETUP] Least Sus

[Irrelephant11]

11 v 4

Before each day, scum must split the playerlist into [# of living mafia] groups. These groups will be published at the start of the day, and the mod will highlight which group has the fewest mafia in it ("least sus"). In the case of a tie for least sus group, the mod will choose from among the tied groups randomly.

At no point can mafia create groups which completely match a previous day's groups, minus the dead players, unless it is impossible to not do so.


... is this breakable?

[Irrelephant11]

Oh right! I forgot to type that each group must have at least 2 players

[Irrelephant11]

It's never impossible going into lylo. If you have 3 scum vs 4 town, for example, you're splitting the PL into 3 groups, which can always have at least two players each. In 1v2, all players are in 1 group, etc.

[Irrelephant11]

It does feel scumsided intuitively, but I haven't yet had the brainpower to figure out what town vs scum #'s would lead to the optimal balance between "none of these lists mean anything yet" to "the lists suddenly confirm half the living townies as town" before lylo

[Irrelephant11]

If anyone who was ever in the "least sus" group flips red, the others from that group become conftown.

[Irrelephant11]

Also if you ever flip someone red from a least sus group, you confirm that every group from that day has 1 scum. Which totally flips the game on its head, which then gives scum a reason to not spread themselves out too much, which then lightly conftowns anyone in a least sus group

[Irrelephant11]

Totally fair! Any idea what numbers would be fair? I thought too many townies could lead to too many game days could lead to "oh we flipped a scum the day before lylo and now 2/3 of the playerlist is conftown" but whatever number works, I'm happy, if the idea works

[Irrelephant11]

confirming 2 people as town and just leaving them alive for a while, to ensure that the groups give no further info, if they want.

This is interesting. Scum would still be forced to shuffle the other groups while spreading out enough to ensure the same 2 townies get conftowned each day. That shuffling would provide enough information to cross out some scumteams. But you're right that it wouldn't do much more than that

[Irrelephant11]

Once again, that’s not how many groups there would be with one scum left

[Irrelephant11]

Even with all that I don't think 11:4 is justified. 11:4 mountainous in practice would probably have a town wincon of like 4%, it takes quite a lot to balance it, and if town is flipping people in the least sus group then they are playing super risky and the reward isn't even

that

good.

Scum also have the option of confirming 2 people as town and just leaving them alive for a while, to ensure that the groups give no further info, if they want.

I think this actually optimal play for scum, with a slight adjustment. Conftown 2 players, then kill and replace one each night. Makes for a game with 2 conftown every day except Lylo, where there’s WIFOM if scum are still using the same strategy for lylo or not

[Irrelephant11]

I think if you play it out though, there's no way to not give town lots of information, it just takes a couple day phases. If 0 scum ever flip, maybe it does feel super scumsided, but a single red flip reveals tons about previous day's groups. I think. I've only written out a couple ways it could play out, there's a lot of options