Mystery Mafia 2- Game Over! But who won!?

[forbiddanlight]

It would be my understanding that Farside would have been told how useless the shotgun was the same time Forbidden was told she could day-vig someone. (Also, why did no one think to day vig landlord?)

Sorry about that, the Patrick WIFOM was getting to be a big part of things :S.

You are focusing on the no kill (you are also forgetting that landlord did a EBWOP to say he targeted everybody). If it was not a result of Lawrence being drunk, then it could have been anything from Farside not killing intentionally to a mod inflicted no kill meaning the no kill is no longer a source of information. This means that Lawrence would have no idea who scum would be (if town) and have no reason to automatically assume it is you. Nothing in what you have said makes Forbidden not scum.

Ok, may I get this straight? You are pushing me as possible scum because elvis didn't mention the possibility of me guarding SSK in her run down of possibilities? Because there are a lot of things wrong with this and I don't want to waste my time going through them if I'm wrong.

[bionicchop2]

Ok, may I get this straight? You are pushing me as possible scum because elvis didn't mention the possibility of me guarding SSK in her run down of possibilities? Because there are a lot of things wrong with this and I don't want to waste my time going through them if I'm wrong.

No you don't have it straight. I am pushing the fact Elvis is making too many assumptions which implies extra knowledge. Why is it her or Lawrence? Why is she so sure somebody else from D3 is mafia? If she is so sure, then she would have to be 100% sure lawrence is scum if she excludes you. Since she is not sure if he is 'buddying', then she isn't sure he is scum. She is using faulty logic on many levels and I am just pointing out that the actions of that night will fail to be a source of information if Lawrence does not turn out to be scum.

[elvis_knits]

What are these many possibilities? Other than Forbiddan protecting SSK, what are the other possibilities?

You are focusing on the no kill (you are also forgetting that landlord did a EBWOP to say he targeted everybody). If it was not a result of Lawrence being drunk, then it could have been anything from Farside not killing intentionally to a mod inflicted no kill meaning the no kill is no longer a source of information. This means that Lawrence would have no idea who scum would be (if town) and have no reason to automatically assume it is you. Nothing in what you have said makes Forbidden not scum.

Bionic, sure there are some weird possibilities, like scum decided to no-kill or sent the kill in late, or BM forced them to no-kill for some reason we don't know. But these things have very low chance of being true. I see no reason why we shouldn't follow through on finding the reason for the no-kill. This seems like the best lead we have, and an important source of information. I don't know why you want to throw it away over these one-in-a-million scenarios.

And as for forbiddan being scum... if she's scum, why did her kill not go through? Because we know from the hypoclaim that nobody targetted her to block her, and nobody was successfully protected that night either.

[elvis_knits]

Why is it her or Lawrence? Why is she so sure somebody else from D3 is mafia?

Do you not get it? Because we have eliminated everyone else in the hypoclaim from being blocked or protected.

[forbiddanlight]

No you don't have it straight. I am pushing the fact Elvis is making too many assumptions which implies extra knowledge. Why is it her or Lawrence? Why is she so sure somebody else from D3 is mafia? If she is so sure, then she would have to be 100% sure lawrence is scum if she excludes you. Since she is not sure if he is 'buddying', then she isn't sure he is scum. She is using faulty logic on many levels and I am just pointing out that the actions of that night will fail to be a source of information if Lawrence does not turn out to be scum.

Big if. I'm pretty sure that Lawrence will turn out scum since most of the other possibilities have been eliminated, and I can tell you that I am not a protective role.

Bionic, sure there are some weird possibilities, like scum decided to no-kill or sent the kill in late, or BM forced them to no-kill for some reason we don't know. But these things have very low chance of being true. I see no reason why we shouldn't follow through on finding the reason for the no-kill. This seems like the best lead we have, and an important source of information. I don't know why you want to throw it away over these one-in-a-million scenarios.

I agree with e_k. Occam's Razor much?

[Korlash]

I have to agree with Forbiddan. (quick, someone agree with me! Awesomeness is upon us!) I think we all rush to assume the simpliest, most likely situation.

"American bookie" does not scream "stabber" so the simpliest solution would be to assume a second mafia. Another simple solution is to assume "american" is refering to a second mafia group, and seeing as how the first had "at minimum" 2, we can assume this new one has "at least" two.

Following the order of simple explanations for a no kill- Drunk-> RB/protected-> seemingly useless objects had an unseen impact. (Or that's about how I rank them)

Crossing off Lawrence, crossing off the hypoclaim, and crossing off Farside you are left with Elvis and the mysteriously useless wine... So I believe it to be the simpliest explanation to say "If it's not Lawrence, it's Elvis!" (And then "if it's not Elvis, it's Forbiddan!" (And if it's no one then it's only one mafia!"(In D3)))

^^ Fun times...

[bionicchop2]

I feel like I am taking crazy pills.

This all stems from Elvis's statement.

I also thought it was weird that lawrence didn't want to kill me. Barring some weird game mechanics (which is possible with BM), then either him or me is scum. So yeah, if he's town I would expect to get killed.

This is the statement I have been questioning.

Why is it her or Lawrence? Why is she so sure somebody else from D3 is mafia?

Do you not get it? Because we have eliminated everyone else in the hypoclaim from being blocked or protected.

My point is that farside could have been the only D3 mafia. She may have a partner in d3 too, but we don't know. If forbidden saves MafiaSSK (she now says she did not), then she could have saved from farside killing. You seem very sure that farside had a partner who joined the same day as she did when there is no evidence for or against that. Why does there have to be another mafia player who joined day 3?

We can debate it more tomorrow if you wish. I think your logic is flawed (and I hope you understand what I am trying to say), but the more I think about it, your flawed logic here does not make you scum. There is no reason you would limit the focus to either you or Lawrence as scum if you were in fact scum.

We have a deadline in about 14+ hours. If farside did have a partner during D3, the most likely partner is Lawrence. I don't see us having a chance to hunt scum elsewhere before the day ends.

unvote elvis;vote lawrence

[bionicchop2]

BM has to be somewhere smiling to know that the simplest explanation for a no kill in his game is that someone was too drunk to kill

I think we went beyond Occam's Razor once Tony turned out to be town. That was the simplest solution and now we are deep into speculations about oddities from normal mafia play.

[elvis_knits]

My point is that farside could have been the only D3 mafia.

IF she was the only mafia, why didn't her kill go through? Nobody blocked farside and none of the players were protected -- unless you think farside tried to kill SSK and was stopped by forbiddandoc. If that were true, forbiddan should not be voting lawrence now.

[bionicchop2]

My point is that farside could have been the only D3 mafia.

IF she was the only mafia, why didn't her kill go through? Nobody blocked farside and none of the players were protected -- unless you think farside tried to kill SSK and was stopped by forbiddandoc. If that were true, forbiddan should not be voting lawrence now.

If I knew the setup and potential reason why her kill wouldn't go through, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

It seemed pretty obvious to me that we didn't have a doctor save. If we did, Tony would not have been lynched since a doctor would have made a case as to why the role block might not have been the cause of the no kill. Nobody hesitated much, so it was pretty telling. That meant barring game mechanic abnormalities, nobody was prevented from making a kill in any standard form of game play. Then we expand to include Lawrence being drunk as a possible reason. Knowing BM and this abnormal game setup we are playing, I am willing to accept that as possible.

As you say, forbidden is voting Lawrence. Even before she claimed not-doc, this is an indicator she did not save a night kill which completely eliminates the hypo-claim (again except for Landlord).

So from my perspective, Lawrence is possible scum, but the next logical step is NOT elvis as obv. scum. If you eliminate Lawrence from the equation (hypothetically he is lynched and shows as town) then you have - nothing prevented farside from killing, nothing prevented forbidden from killing and nothing prevented Elvis from killing. This makes the no kill on that night an invalid source of information which is my point.

[bionicchop2]

I believe the deadline is in 11 hours. Those not voting should really consider placing there votes somewhere.

[Landlord]

unvote - vote: BM

[Korlash]

Vote: Lawrence

Sub-vote: Elvis

If lawrence is telling the truth I think he should then copy-lynch Elvis. Aside from my own stated suspicions early dictating why I think Elvis IS a candidate for scum, I add that tomorrow, if Lawrence is town, I garantee Elvis will be a top suspect to some, if not many, of us if only for the "What if there were two scum entered day 3?" and "How is a bookie a stabber?" questions.

On a side note i find it odd that the first mafia seem to use shotguns and the second, "American", mafia use knives... I kinda thought America was the gun steriotype country so i find it funny. And I find most funny things mentionable... so... hope you enjoyed this episode of "Did you know?" by me, Korlash! see you next time Pat!

[bionicchop2]

Well, deadline has passed. Not sure if we have a no lynch or if we can still vote to get a lynch. I also don't know if landlord unvoting lawrence to vote for the moderator is valid (I assume the unvote still counts). I think it makes Korlash's vote #4.

The following people are wanted for questioning for completely ignoring the deadline and doing nothing to progress the game:

Landlord
Surye
Killa Seven
Korts (has been active, but went MIA near deadline)

[Battle Mage]

Vote Count

Lawrencelot 4 (Elvis Knits, Forbiddanlight, BionicChop, Korlash)

Not Voting: Surye, Killa Seven, Lawrencelot, Korts, LandLord

With 9 alive, 5 votes will lynch.

With no majority reached, nobody was lynched. With another scumbag gone, the town was fairly happy with the day. But, having failed to reach a consensus, they went to bed feeling very uncertain in their position.

It is now Night 7. You have just under 48 hours to get all night choices to me.

Good Luck!

BM

[Battle Mage]

Upon waking up, the remaining residents were not sure what to think. But, as reliable as the rising of the sun, another of their number appeared to be dead. It looked to be bad news, as the victim lay face down on the ground, with a knife in his back. But he had not been as quite as clean as he'd have had you think!

BionicChop (Rep. Afatchic) - Distorter, Stabbed Night 7

The town had opened another can of worms. They weren't sure whether to celebrate or panic. The least they could do was be grateful that they were still alive.

It is now Day 8. With 8 of you alive, 5 votes are required to lynch. You have 7 days to reach a decision.

Good Luck,

BM

[Korts]

Vote: Lawrencelot

Caught up with the reading during the night phase. It's clear that he is the most likely stabber, considering that the stabbings started Day 3, and there was a no kill when he was drunk.

The BionichChop kill fits the profile, too; he pushed the Lawrencelot case pretty hard.

[forbiddanlight]

Well, glad people are here to

Vote Lawrencealot

. Maybe we'll, yanno, LYNCH!?

[Korlash]

So we either have a new stabber or the old one is still alive!

Same thing applies, if Lawrence is telling the truth then he relynches Elvis. If he is scum we can all dance!

yay dancing...*Cue Six Flags theme music*

The BionichChop kill fits the profile, too; he pushed the Lawrencelot case pretty hard.

I would be very careful about this.... I mean it could always be an attempt to frame lawrence, plus the fact Bionic was so active he may hve seemed a threat to the real stabber. And however unlikely it may seem Farside could have been the first stabber, and we may have a new stabber that just joined.

I myself believe the orriginal stabber is still alive. I believe it is Lawrence or Elvis. I believe it is "most likely" Lawrence.

Here is myline of thinking:

1: Farside was a bookie. Perhaps she assigned who got which stack of coins. So it wouldn't look good for Lawrence.

2: Why would lawrence being incapacitated stop Farside from killing?

3: Didn't lawrence give away some of his coins? Could be an attempt at looking town. He did keep one (If I recall correctly) Maybe to see if Farside could do anything else? Maybe just being safe town?

[elvis_knits]

And however unlikely it may seem Farside could have been the first stabber, and we may have a new stabber that just joined.

Weird.

Also... what do we think distorter role does... like a framer?

Also...

vote lawrencelot

[Korts]

I'm thinking a distorter may be a redirector of some kind.

[Korlash]

Did we ever find out what a "screwball" was?

[Korts]

Do we have any chance until post-game reveals?

[Korlash]

... Well I figured if we were going to speculate on what "distorter" is maybe I could allieviate my curiosity on what a "screwball" is...

>.>

[Surye]

vote lawrencelot

Agree, there has been too much correlation between the stabbing and law.