In post 1136, Ausuka wrote:I mean she has a push pool of meg coral datisi
I don't really buy the argument that because she's unlikely to win with her current tactic she wouldn't choose it, because she's really unlikely to win with any tactic
In post 1136, Ausuka wrote:I mean she has a push pool of meg coral datisi
I don't really buy the argument that because she's unlikely to win with her current tactic she wouldn't choose it, because she's really unlikely to win with any tactic
In post 1143, scamper wrote:i kind of think she acts like that no matter what in her position tbh, about the only way she doesnt get flipped here is if enough people decide she looks like shes really willing to die and second-guess onto someone else. (im also a little paranoid of her townreading me so strongly)
xayah feels weird as last scum here because she's doing the opposite of what i'd expect last scum to be doing. like, we all know that "lol flip me idc" is basically never getting you not flipped. so i don't think i'd expect competent scum to say that, rather than be more aggressive. but, if that is the tactic she's employing, then i'd expect her to fake a lot of thoughts about the game to look like she's solving. instead she's having thoughts that she's not transparently showing in the thread, and i feel like scum-her focused on survival would be able to do that. it's like she's choosing the worst of both worlds.
so then we're left with "she's trolling until she gets flipped", but that doesn't feel right either.
i mean I don't think her play makes a massive amount of sense as town here either
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
Post
Post #1233 (isolation #224) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:14 am
Postby Ausuka »
The claims thing is like... Again I will wait for massclaim, I think until then we can't really comment on them. Although I will say I don't think miller really makes complex cop any more useful. It's the kind of thing that looks like a cool interaction until you think about it and realise it's not actually interesting at all
I do agree that my instinct is that Meg would be more reluctant to fight with scamper like that as scum but I guess that could be wrong
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
Post
Post #1317 (isolation #231) » Thu Aug 11, 2022 7:40 pm
Postby Ausuka »
I really don't think it's Coral here?
My reasoning is that she immediately claimed in her PT on day 1 and committing hard to clearing me like that would be too much of a big brained gambit for me to accept I think, I don't think scum chooses to play around me like that. In particular I think being informed that the miller is town makes some sense, whereas scum having information about a miller is just super super weird given miller always claims
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
Post
Post #1320 (isolation #233) » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:29 pm
Postby Ausuka »
In post 1253, MegAzumarill wrote:I found when going back through your posts yestterday for datisi a lot of the posts I had originally found town indicative involved phoenix/galron in a positive light or elsewise able to be contextualized from that flip.
Yeah I mean, this is a very convenient position to change today when Meg's only path to victory is to flip Coral today and play up datisi or scamper paranoia in elo
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
In post 1312, scamper wrote:i think its actually highly super unlikely that all of don/dats/corals roles can exist in the same game and be town
if you take for granted that they all are, you could potentially have 3 players mechanically cleared on day 2 of a micro
that seems like it would be incredibly unbalanced
i've been thinking about this the last few days - i think you're not thinking about it the way games actually are balanced. like, theoretically, yes, 3 confirmed townies could be present on day 2. (and this is assuming that town doesn't kill scum d1 and doesn't think one of them is fakeclaiming a clear on a partner.)
but it's also possible that there is only one confirmed townie on day 2, like it happened here. my role ended up not giving a clear, don got shot (he wasn't guaranteed to get a result anyway), and now mine and coral's claims are making each other look worse than we would've been individually. (which is also a factor in balancing.) and that's not even going into what scum possibly has as power roles.
like yeah, best case scenario for town is lol, but the worst case scenario for town is also lol. that's swing, not imbalance.
also, not that i necessarily agree with the following, but 3 cleared townies on d2, (7 alive, 2 scum alive) is still 50% ev.
again i dont see how u can balance around "in the worst case scenario for town scum has a chance", as a design philosophy thats super busted, u need to examine how easy it is for town to get a near lock based on rhings going right
i mean, does whether it's a design philosophy you agree with matter? The way NRG reviews setups in practice is a more reliable predictor of what this game might be than an 'ideal' review process and in my experience and datisi's too they are generally willing to accommodate a lot of swing.
I think meg being an informed backup neighbourizer would have symmetry with the informed neighbourizer and that would be my guess
If real N1 Neapolitan in this setup is probably just not a powerful role? Only innos are you and gamma, it's more likely than not to create wifom
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
In post 1349, Ausuka wrote:i think the 180 on coral from meg is very suspicious
I don't really see coral here and I'm sorry if I'm wrong and pocketed or whatever but that's just what i think
Pedit: ok? whatever then
i mean in this scenario what else does town!meg do exactly
i think town Meg is probably more open about their changing thinking on coral on d2. i also think town Meg is more likely to stick to the datisi read. that was pretty clearly their second choice for scum d2 and they consistently claimed to heavily townread coral, but this read changed when it became clear coral was pretty much the only possible elimination.
I think meg does not want to be pushing ge on d3 because it is a push that is never going to bear fruit and they want to be able to go after people who could get miseliminated. i think the ge kill makes sense from that angle
I'm sorry if I'm roadblocking you or whatever? I'm assuming you instant voting datisi is meant as a punishment to me and him? I'm just trying to eliminate who I think is mafia
It's not even like I'm saying you are not allowed to eliminate Coral ever. I think Meg is scum here and townread everyone else, so if it's not Meg I am clearly wrong about a townread.
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
In post 1354, MegAzumarill wrote:The nightkills have put me in an incredibly awkward position if i was scum and I don't see how you can justify me actively harming my position like that.
What alternative kills could have given you a better position?
N1 Kill Ausuka
N2, assuming I killed done n1, Literally anyone but GE helps my position.
I do not sincerely believe any scum player would kill a claimed miller on N1, particularly after a scumflip in a micro where power roles are even more threatening than usual
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
Post
Post #1378 (isolation #244) » Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:15 am
Postby Ausuka »
Sorry if I was defensive!
Uh, I do not feel especially strongly on Coral/datisi. I think either could be scum playing a good game, but I don't think either is likely. If you want I can reread before deadline although my thoughts will probably not be mind-changing
I think it is probably one of them if it's not meg - I don't think a game with only one vanilla townie would be passed.
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
Post
Post #1379 (isolation #245) » Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:20 am
Postby Ausuka »
Fwiw my main hangup with coral is more role based than play based I think?
Like... I don't think "scum decides to claim informed with a clear before they have any information on what claim would fit the setup, and specifically play around ausuka/the miller claim" is a particularly likely scenario.
Maybe this is just me, but I think coral is true claiming informed neighbourizer regardless of alignment and I do not think mafia is informed about a miller, like, ever? I also think mafia informed neighbourizer/town backup neighbourizer is a kind of weird interaction, while not impossible, I think town informed neighbourizer/mafia informed backup neighbourizer is so much neater
I know you didn't want to discuss setup spec and that's fine I'm just explaining my thoughts I guess
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
Post
Post #1388 (isolation #247) » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:03 am
Postby Ausuka »
I will reread soon
I guess I don't understand why scamper was going to instant vote datisi instead of coral if he's not angry? Like I would get it if datisi said he would never even consider eliminating coral but I don't think that's the case
Pedit: yes
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
In post 1777, Coral wrote:Reading the mod thread, part of me wonders if we would have won if I had added scamper instead of Datisi. At the time I didn't think the choice mattered that much, but I think things would have played out very differently, at least.
easy to say things would have gone differently in hindsight, hard to actually know. i will say that feeling like i was on the outside of a group dynamic on day 3 made me give up on defending meg, which was probably my worst play this game
yeah sorry about pushing meg >.> i was not able to catch dats at all
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.