Open 101 - Two of Four - Game over before 712

[ThAdmiral]

here

vote: ripley

[ThAdmiral]

no reason

[ThAdmiral]

actually his name reminded me of "The Talented Mr Ripley", and

he

was...

!SPOILER WARNING!

...a killer

[ThAdmiral]

C'mon it's random voting stage!

And yes I do like you tcs.
(buddying!)

[ThAdmiral]

By the way - millers (if any) should claim now.

I think that is generally the best play, although people are welcome to dispute.

[ThAdmiral]

Well I figured one of two things would have happened,

miller claimed miller - if there is a cop, probably a good idea, if there is no cop probably bad idea
scum claimed miller - this would have been after everybody posted, thinking it would be a safeish claim, then we could hopefully catch them in a lie later on (once both other roles had been revealed or counterclaim). although the idea of claiming seems to have been shot down, so no chance of this anymore.

[ThAdmiral]

I've played in non-open games with millers before and the rule there is if you are a miller you should claim day 1.
It avoids the mess later on if the miller is investigated and then claims miller and, inevitably, no one believes them and they get lynched.

[ThAdmiral]

thanks veerus

[ThAdmiral]

@ silverphoenix: if there is a miller in a non-open game it implies there is a cop.

@ veerus: i figured the same logic would apply without actually thinking it through.

[ThAdmiral]

@ silver: that sounds like a better plan.

@ veerus: true, very low activity. I think its due to thanksgiving weekend.

[ThAdmiral]

@ tcs: alrighty.

Where is that avatar from?


Also (and this is to everyone) In the name of more activity I think we should choose one of the plans floating around and then vote on whether we want t do it or not. That should get everybody at least saying "yes" or "no" for a few posts and then we will have something to work towards.

To be honest I don't really understand the current plans being out forward so can someone explain them again?

[ThAdmiral]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbRom1Rz8OA

Absolutely hilarious!

Everybody do yourselves a favor and watch this!!!

Alright since no one else has any plans I'll suggest one. We lynch a lurker today, and then the miller (if any) claims tomorrow.

We'll deal with whatever happens/doesn't happen if/when it does/does not.





Or someone could come up with a better plan.

[ThAdmiral]

Post 57
Lurkerhunting. Seriously. We really need to discuss somethings before coming up with a plan like this.

I know. But basically it was either this or nothing until you came along.

[ThAdmiral]

I've given my thoughts on both miller claim strategies, have suggested a claim strategy of my own that hardly anybody replied to

I think the problem was I didn't understand your strategy. Could you explain it again?

My reasoning is that such a player is still on the board a lot but is trying to post as little as possible here to avoid any hint of suspicion that would increase the speed in such a slow-paced game. Therefore...

unvote; vote: Kaiveran

This actually isn't that bad a pick up. I'd say if we are going to lynch a lurker (although that looks less likely now) kaiveran would be a good choice.

@ zazier: it's risky. The two mislynch clock does make things more dangerous but I would still say wait until day two to do a full claim.

[ThAdmiral]

what happens when the cop is killed and we end up with the miller as our only surviving "power role" (i.e. murphy's law).

[ThAdmiral]

well the more we talk about it the more information it gives the scum about what they should or should not do. You shouldn't have brought up the fact that if both scum claim there will be three confirmed townies, for example, as the scum may not have picked up on that.
Instead we should just decide now whether we are for this or not, and then do it or not do it.

I, for one, am against it.

[ThAdmiral]

But TA, why are you against it? And why do you think it's better to claim day 2?

I'm against it because I want to give our power roles every chance of surviving through to day 2. Obviously if we have a cop and they survive we will have more information. But the same could also be true for a doc and an rb. If the doc prevents a kill we have another confirmed town, and if an rb stops a kill then we have scum. I want to give every chance of one of these things to happen.
Like ripley i also think the mafia are a very good chance of winning this game because of the low activity, but unlike him I think this game will be won off the back of lucky/good investigations/protects/blocks, not a day one mass claim to "liven things up".

Also if you think there should be a mass claim today because there is a chance we will lynch a power role, I am fairly certain they would claim if they were in trouble of being hammered (i'd hope so anyway), so this fear is unjustified.

I see what you are saying about catching the mafia off guard, but I don't think it is a big enough positive to trade a power role for.

[ThAdmiral]

@ kaiveran: internet grounded. harsh.

I've been there though, many years ago...

[ThAdmiral]

Wait, tcs was

against

the mass claim, so why are you voting him?

[ThAdmiral]

@ cc: yeah I was just sorta skimming and saw that you were both against the claim and I was a bit confused.

@ everyone: As I said before though we shouldn't really be talking about the possible outcomes of all the possibilities of the claim. I know they are helpful points to bring up in the argument of whether to claim or not but it should be clear by now that both parties are fairly set in their ways and are not going to change their minds. It is also probably too late but I can't help but feel we are giving information to the scum which they

could have

but

may not have

come up with on their own.

I think we should all just vote now whether we are for claiming or not, and then either do it or do not do it.

anybody else agree?

[ThAdmiral]

Well if I can count correctly that makes four of us which means no mass claim for today.

@ tcs: a gut vote? come on. Am I supposed to argue against that or just ignore it?

[ThAdmiral]

attempt to make a case on someone

not

based on whether they were for or against a mass claim.

(this may prove to be difficult)

[ThAdmiral]

can you explain iioa?

[ThAdmiral]

fair enough.
I think this is just how I generally play day one. In fact I've been actually quite a bit more outspoken here than normal.

[ThAdmiral]

got work now, will post when I get back home.

[ThAdmiral]

I've found a better lynch than me:

Let's look at a few of veerus' posts...
(most of the bolding is mine)

Hopefully Zazier will bring some discussion to the thread because unless something comes up,

I'm totally for lynching a lurker

.. This game is going nowhere fast.

mod: who have you prodded recently?

(this will give us a list of our lurker targets)

I'll admit that I mentioned the plan to lynch a lurker, but I made it pretty obvious that I didn't think highly of the plan, and that I was all for a better one.
Veerus however jumps on the idea, and even when activity picks up with the introduction of zazier he still says he is for it.

He then goes on to vote kaieveran. A lurker.
He did so because he was the first to post after the prod. This means that he was able to get on but chose not to, according to veerus. Scum like to come up with reasons like this to implicate people, even when there is often a perfectly innocent reason why the person wasn't posting (such as in this case kaiveran had an internet ban).

According to the rules, there's a deadline.. I'm guessing after wasting all this time, we won't have time for everyone to claim at this pace.

Our best bet is to lynch and soon.

I like Kaiveran for reasons I stated earlier.

mod: when is the deadline?

Still gunning for a lurker lynch, but more importantly, for

any

lynch, just as long as it is done quickly!

I can think of many reasons why scum might want to get to night as soon as possible (stop discussion, use night kill etc.), whereas I can't think of many for townies.

P.S.

I'm still for the Kaiveran lynch

.. after the quick prod, he's disappeared. Obviously he won't make the same mistake again.

Still after a lurker lynch, even when activity had reached quite acceptable levels.
Still constructing arguments that implicate people based on things which are often perfectly innocent.

Great point, Ripley. Combine this with CC's great post just now, I think the vote should be obvious.

unvote; vote: TCS

And then suddenly he flips to tcs (evidently he realised that the kaiveran/carncarn lynch wasn't going anywhere), and even states that the vote is obvious. This sounds like he is trying to build a wagon to me.

It turns out the vote wasn't obvious however, because soon after there is this series of posts:

Referring to one of my posts:

Something in this post I really don't like.. But I can't put a finger on it just yet.

But I do think that I should

Vote:Thadmiral

for right now... call it gut.

ThAdmiral seems to have the IIOA syndrome (information instead of analysis). In fact, now that I've been able to quantify it, I feel ok with a vote on him.

unvote; vote: ThAdmiral

Note the wishy-washiness of the first post.
Now note the way he waits till after someone else vote me (to get me to -2) before he does (i.e. to get me to -1).
If that isn't wagon hopping I don't know what is.

And now his most recent post:

Considering day 1 has been going on for nearly a month, I feel ok with the L-1. He is currently the highest on the scum-like symptoms list. And the fact that the wagon built up kind of fast tells me that there's likely no scum bussing going on. In addition, the fact that pretty much every player posted since I put him at L-1 suggests to me that scum are hesitant to hammer their buddy in such a short game..

Obviously he ignores the possibility that scum would be on the wagon, i.e. obviously he would, i.e. he's scum, i.e. end of story.

unvote, vote: veerus

[ThAdmiral]

As if I was the only one discussing the set up.

[ThAdmiral]

But you aren't voting me for that because your vote was already on me so that's moot.

And you would call a perfectly good case on you omgus, which is completely misrepresenting the reason I voted you anyway. In fact you'd see that I didn't omgus vote you at all if you bothered to actually read it.

[ThAdmiral]

Would you two mind quoting the posts that yuo are arguing over? It would make it alot easier to follow along...

If I haven't quoted somebody then I am quoting the post directly above me.

I think that should clear this up.

[ThAdmiral]

agree with ripley.

With the deadline approaching the scum could just be happy to wait it out.

[ThAdmiral]

@ veerus: I agreed that that was what I was doing (iioa) but I didn't agree that this was inherently scummy. And I also pointed out that I was not the only one doing it (I just happened to be the only one with 2 votes on me already).

@ tcs: would it be too much to ask you to just pop in and vote someone else before the deadline (preferably veerus)?

[ThAdmiral]

well bandwagonning is a tell as well, a much better tell.
So is being wishy washy, like you were before the vote.

[ThAdmiral]

Is there still time?

I'm just a townie unfortunately.

Whatever. Go town. And kill tcs tomorrow. Im pretty sure he's scum.

[ThAdmiral]

I should have lurked. Then I could have cruised to day 2 and scum would have won this thing!