In post 9, usesPython wrote:
In post 8, yessiree wrote:
A lot of numbers to digest but from what I've gathered I don't think it's apt to compare this setup to 2:N mountainous since it plays drastically differently when 2 scums don't know each another. It's probably closer to some fringe variant of multiball or N vs 1 even night sk + 1 odd night sk depending on the NK rng
For EV calculations I don't think that multiball/SK calcs are correct here since scum want to only hit town during the night (since hitting scum always lowers their EV) whereas in multiball there's cases when you want to hit scum.
Likewise dayplay is better represented without using multiball if you run under the assumption that in that case scum will just play survivalistic d1 and then d2 onwards push town since they should be using their neighborizer ability on scummy people (either they find their partner at which point standard mountainous calcs or they find out it's town in which case it's safe to push them during the day at which point standard mountainous calcs)
For looking at EV Dayplay wise, it should be the same as any normal setup, what each actor wants to do shouldn't matter since we're modelling the behavior of the entire playerlist as a whole, and using that to calculate the outcome. You are using randomness to abstract away what each individual actor might do and how they might play.
Nightplay follows the same logic for modelling outcome, I dont think you should be looking at what each actor wants to do, only what they
can
do given the info they have at a given moment in time (with the assumption they still always play to their wincon)
For mountainous, the scum team has complete info of the identities of every town/scum players so they could only ever hit town during the night making it easy to model
For multiball, each scum team has incomplete info, so only guarantee is scum won't shoot themselves, anyone else is fair game
For this setup, it should be the same as multiball iff scum are not neighbors, and mountainous otherwise, which might not be hard to model now that I think about it
In post 9, usesPython wrote:
D1's kind of a wildcard there as well as games where a neighborizer target dies during the night but as a rough estimate it's fine I think?
The lack of communication and organization definitely makes it more townsided until scum neighborize (since scum can accidentally bus/shoot each other/nk a pocket/etc.) but representing that in EV calcs is pretty arbitrary (Does it make scum 10% scummier? 20%? Or even
less
scummy than normal if townies are used to associative reads) so I just left it as is instead and only looked at the "Scum can NK each other" part.
In post 8, yessiree wrote:
It also feels wrong when there's still a chance for scum to not be neighbours at ELO in the 7:2
It actually doesn't really matter in that case I think?
Someone's
getting limmed that day and unless you're saying scum are inherently more likely to get limmed there it should be an even distribution when you look at EV (Just assume that scum slow-roll and justify even a hammer vote)
Not talking about EV here, I just feel like it wouldn't be a proper game of mafia at that point. There are no associative reads for town to use to sort potential scum pairs which means town isn't really hunting for an informed minority, more like semi-informed team of two acting out of their own interests. So I guess town is just hunting for scummy players but then that'll have an effect in how scum approaches the game too so
I think I'd prefer if the scum team becomes neighbors at ELO automatically. There is precedence where setups with unique mechanics revert to mountainous during ELO
