Micro 1088: Carbon 14 - Game Over

[imaginality]

Hi all!

Heip is obvscum VOTE: heip

Agreed with hypoclaiming inno results without saying if cop/seer.

I'd actually argue against massclaim if we're elo tomorrow, at least, I think it's worth considering not massclaiming. The advantage of a possible extra day of Cop/Seer results outweighs the advantage of narrowing the scum pool. If we use FoS rather than actual votes then the Cop or Seer still have a chance to claim and avoid being limmed.

I suppose arguing against that is that if we do massclaim and Cop and/or Seer aren't cc-ed then knowing they're town might help us with reads.

[imaginality]

30% random chance of the true cop getting a guilty and living to claim it if we lim N1 (2/5 x 3/4)

If we no lim:
(2/6 x 4/5) = 26.3% chance true cop can claim a guilty after N1
4/5 x 30% = 24% chance true cop can claim a guilty N2 (a bit less though as hypoclaims help scum narrow down their NK target)

Plus some marginal extra utility from inno claims

Yeah, I think it makes sense

VOTE: No Lim

[imaginality]

Especially considering we're not getting the most juice out of today

[imaginality]

Hmm you're right. Forgot to factor that in.
Chance of limming mafia today is 2/7 so 28% ish.
We would be losing that chance.

Though then you have to factor in say 1/7 chance of the true doc being outed or limmed if we lim today.

But still I think you're right.

UNVOTE:

[imaginality]

@PC why are you self voting?

[imaginality]

VOTE: PC

I disagree with heip (though I do townread heip) - I don't think town are likely to risk self voting to put themselves at E-1 on D1 of a micro.

Also the proposed strategy of all claiming role and target D1 is a great way to ensure we never get a guilty and if scum don't happen to be targeted by the right type, then the NK could seriously mislead us D2.

[imaginality]

It seems too risky to vote yourself to E-1.
It's less risky if you're scum and know your buddy won't quickhammer you.

You claiming cop just makes me all the more sure you are scum because a cop voting themselves to E-1 would be doubly daft.

Unlike other bad mech plans I've seen in various games your one smelled scum-motivated to me. Like not considering the D2 wifom risks at all. I think town aligned players would more likely be alert for that.

Your response to my vote seems jumpy and omgussy, my vote stays.

[imaginality]

TLDR readslist:

Dunnstral, sheep
Ceejay, heip
PC, RN

If I'm wrong on PC (I have no idea how reliable sheep's town meta read on PC is) ceejay can be the other scum slot

Back to sickbed hope to post more fully tomorrow

[imaginality]

TLDR readslist:

Dunnstral, sheep
Ceejay, heip
PC, RN

If I'm wrong on PC (I have no idea how reliable sheep's town meta read on PC is) ceejay can be the other scum slot

Back to sickbed hope to post more fully tomorrow

now who's being omgussy? ceejay hasn't said anything of substance.

That's not omgussy, that's just relative reads. Dunnstral, sheep and heip all give me more town vibes and like you say ceejay is a lot closer to null; so if one of you and RN are town then ceejay is the most likely slot (in my view) to be the second scum.

It's also not omgussy because I currently doubt ceejay is scum. I think it's you and RN.

[imaginality]

General vibe of heip seeming uninformed and his reads list came across as genuine.

No I'm not saying I've solved the game. That's a blatant misrep. I'm saying I think you two are more likely scum than the other four and that if I'm wrong about one (or both!) of you, I think there's more chance ceejay is scum than one of the other three.

It's also very suspicious you're trying to get me to answer that question when we haven't agreed to d1 hypoclaim. Feels like you wanted me to answer so you can go "oh imaginality has answered so now we all might as well".

[imaginality]

I missed all the action.
Happy one of my two suspects got limmed, if PC hadn't hammered I would have

[imaginality]

Posting to say I'm here. 5am NZ time, will be more substantive in the daytime.

Does losing a cop affect whether it's worth hypoclaiming today or not? My instinct says it's still worth it but I haven't mathed it out yet. Interested in thoughts.

Also @sheep can you explain your town read on PC?

Pedit: lol well I'm Seer and PC is scum.

Also I have an inno on Doctor Drew (if scum are wolves).

[imaginality]

VOTE: imaginality

I'm hard claiming seer, imag is a werewolf.


The whole thing day 1 was just to hide my actual role and so I wouldn't die in the night. I think I achieved that fairly well. But I think the whole wifom of me claiming cop is marinating in towns mind and leading them down dark paths.

overall I am claiming today partly because of that instead of continuing to hide and I caught a wolf

, partly because nothing is really happening this game and maybe this can jump start it and town can figure out who the last wolf is tomorrow when I die tonight.

The way this is worded makes it obvious it's from scum perspective. PC is under suspicion so a Seer claim either wins the game or at least outs the real Seer.

A town Seer with a guilty in elo isn't gonna make the first half of that post all about self-preservation. Or say they're claiming the guilty to jump start action.

A town Seer would either be like "hi I'm Seer, I have a guilty on X" or wait to see if X gets limmed without them having to claim maybe. Risky in elo but with other people voicing suspicion of me a town PC might have waited. Instead of thinking "ah, seems like enough suspicion on imag that I can fake a guilty there and be believed"

VOTE: PC

[imaginality]

why did you check drew over PC?

I thought if PC is scum I might be the NK considering I was heavily suspicious of PC all D1, so I didn't think it likely I'd live to claim a guilty. Whereas I could see Drew as an under the radar scum and thought that scum teams with Drew would have less reason to target me.

[imaginality]

I really do have to sleep now but back in 3 hours ish.

Pedit: not sure what "really dumb logic of me not being here" refers to?

[Also "dumb" is ableist language, fyi]

@sheep maybe I'm biased as I know PC is scum; but the way that sentence was worded just doesn't seem to me to be how town would explain claiming a guilty.

[imaginality]

I was gonna call the PC early self-vote to be town cuz it seems like scum would be more scared of being lolhammered than town would be

but with today's hindsight it doesnt seem like a seer would put themselves at e-1???? hmm lol

This is a good point, it was a dangerous play for a VT to do (given how early in the day it was, imagine how little we'd have to go on today if someone did quicklim), but even more so as a PR.

Also, when PC sorta-claimed cop imagine if cop cc-ed. That would have been an absolute clusterfuck no matter who we limmed. It makes sense as scum though.

[imaginality]

VOTE: imaginality

I'm hard claiming seer, imag is a werewolf.


The whole thing day 1 was just to hide my actual role and so I wouldn't die in the night. I think I achieved that fairly well. But I think the whole wifom of me claiming cop is marinating in towns mind and leading them down dark paths.

overall I am claiming today partly because of that instead of continuing to hide and I caught a wolf

, partly because nothing is really happening this game and maybe this can jump start it and town can figure out who the last wolf is tomorrow when I die tonight.

The way this is worded makes it obvious it's from scum perspective. PC is under suspicion so a Seer claim either wins the game or at least outs the real Seer.

A town Seer with a guilty in elo isn't gonna make the first half of that post all about self-preservation. Or say they're claiming the guilty to jump start action.

A town Seer would either be like "hi I'm Seer, I have a guilty on X" or wait to see if X gets limmed without them having to claim maybe. Risky in elo but with other people voicing suspicion of me a town PC might have waited. Instead of thinking "ah, seems like enough suspicion on imag that I can fake a guilty there and be believed"

VOTE: PC

the logic I am referring to is that you are claiming wolf!pc waited to claim the guilty when in point of fact I had just gotten on.

I am saying that erroneous logic applies to you you were waiting all day today until I placed a guilty on you and you magically appeared.

I wasn't saying you did wait to claim. I was saying that was one of two reasonable options - have the claim front and centre straight up or wait and see. While you did claim in that first post you kinda buried it in that post amongst musings of "well me claiming Seer will hopefully help y'all be less suspicious of me" and "hopefully it starts discussion" compared with "I FOUND SCUM!!!"

[imaginality]

Posting to say I'm here. 5am NZ time, will be more substantive in the daytime.

Does losing a cop affect whether it's worth hypoclaiming today or not?

My instinct says it's still worth it but I haven't mathed it out yet. Interested in thoughts.

Also @sheep can you explain your town read on PC?

Pedit: lol well I'm Seer and PC is scum

.

Also I have an inno on Doctor Drew (if scum are wolves).

this is clearly scum posting. there is no way he preview edited the fact that I got a guilty on him and he was waiting the whole time with his post in the full editor and preview tab...plus it is a cc like lmao?

I was watching the Ashes, sue me. I drafted the post when the last wicket fell then watched to the close of play. Then attempted to post, saw your fakeclaim, p-edited my post. Was going to write more but Broad announcing his retirement took my attention again, and then also it was already like 6am here.

You got very lucky if you didn't have a Seer read on me, I have to say. If you did, fair play, that read has probably won you the game.

[imaginality]

god

wouldnt it be a weird lucky coincidence if PC was scum fakeclaiming seer guilty on imaginality and then imaginality was the real seer ????? I feel like this points in PC's favor

I feel like if PC was scum and then the seer was anyone other than imag he wouldve been screwed over


p-edit fair enough

That's not the worst outcome for them though, it would have outed the Seer and PC was probably one of the top candidates to be limmed today so they might have thought it worth the gamble?

Though I think they probably are good with their hunches as evidenced by their NKing Heip

[imaginality]

Imaginality can u describe why u townread dunn d1

as well as if u happen to remember any thoughts u had about drew/ceejay? or were they just sorta poe

There wasn't a whole lot of D1 but Dunnstral's mech spec vibed town and their pressure on RN felt good too. Also posts like 79 feel like someone trying to solve the game.

Ceejay seemed to be kinda avoiding doing anything and Drew's reads felt flimsy.

[imaginality]

why did you check drew over PC?

I thought if PC is scum I might be the NK considering I was heavily suspicious of PC all D1, so

I didn't think it likely I'd live to claim a guilty

. Whereas I could see Drew as an under the radar scum and thought that scum teams with Drew would have less reason to target me.

that doesn't make any sense no matter which way you spin it. didn't you suspect ceejay d1? how would he be under the radar scum?

You (and RN) were very clearly the focus of my suspicions D1. Ceejay was my first alternate but I said at the time it was a relative thing, I didn't express hard suspicion of them.

I said ceejay/Drew was under the radar in that I feel I was placing less attention/pressure on them D1, they were just like, there. Not doing anything to ping me as town but less suspicious looking than you or RN.

[imaginality]

How is the timing of my claim sus? You think I should have outed myself as Seer

before

PC fakeclaimed?

[imaginality]

I don't think Dunnstral posts 219 and 231 as scum - the confusion seems genuine. Sheep also seems to be genuinely trying to solve today

I do agree with PC that defensiveness isn't alignment indicative. I'm town anyhow but not for that reason

[imaginality]

@everyone look at 242 and tell me if you think that's town talking to someone they know is scum or if it's scum trying to tilt town and muddy everything.

My hypotheticals aren't pointless because they hopefully show others how unlikely your D1 play is to be town. They aren't boring if they help town see you're scum. You just don't want people to think it through. Also that last sentence is hilarious because yes in my hypothetical scenario you are Seer, the whole point of the hypothetical was to show how risky your play was if you really were Seer. I know you're not but I'm trying to show others that you're not

[imaginality]

Oh, I just realised how PC knew I was probably Seer before PC fakeclaimed Seer with guilty on me.

Sheep Dunn and Drew had already posted today before PC claimed and none of them hypoclaimed or even started a discussion of whether to carry on with hypoclaiming despite Cop flip. That was probably already a reasonable clue they're VT and therefore I was most likely the Seer.

[imaginality]

I can't out-post PC, see no value in arguing with them directly, and don't want the decent points I've raised lost in a haystack.

I'll check in periodically today and answer questions from others though.


I think 149-150-151 is interesting to consider if that could be scumbuddies or not. And 219-230 is this misread of my post a sign Dunn knows PC is guilty or genuine misread?

Right now I think the PC fakeclaim gambit is riskier in a mafia world than a werewolf world (where outing the Seer has clear value) so I lean town on Drew given my inno. So I think PC's partner is Dunn or sheep, and more likely Dunn.

[imaginality]

Whether other people should believe I'm the more likely Seer or not is directly related to the evidence for or against, so of course I'm going to comment on that.

That said, me pointing out for example how PC's D1 play doesn't make sense as town in general or Seer in particular isn't about 'tailoring my defense to the evidence', I was already pointing that out on D1 and PC's Seer claim today just makes it even more obvious.

[imaginality]

Oh one additional point, playing scummy D1 to live through to D2 makes sense in bigger games but in this game where it's elo D2, that has the disadvantage that town might not believe you D2. So, again, that's not a tactic that a town!PC would actually be likely to employ. But is a convenient excuse for a scum!PC to explain away D1 play

[imaginality]

@Drew happy to answer any questions if you have any for me

Same goes for others (except PC since I know PC is scum so I'd rather save my energy)

[imaginality]

Spoiler: PC and ceejay/Doctor Drew interactions

early reads while nothing is happening.

Dunn probably town
sheep trying to move game forward could be town

dunno what to do about pc self vote

I guess heip unvoting pc there could be townie?

I guess vote stays on imag for now

I really wanted to say something but aside from imag's and PC's brief scuffle nothing really grabbed my interest on the previous page

early reads while nothing is happening.

Dunn probably town
sheep trying to move game forward could be town

dunno what to do about pc self vote

I guess heip unvoting pc there could be townie?

I guess vote stays on imag for now

Do you think Imaginality is mafia or is that your rvs vote?

When I posted that my thoughts were that I wanted to vote someone between PC and Imag and since my vote is already in Imag from RVS I decided to just let it sit there for now

TLDR readslist:

Dunnstral, sheep
Ceejay, heip
PC, RN

If I'm wrong on PC (I have no idea how reliable sheep's town meta read on PC is) ceejay can be the other scum slot

Back to sickbed hope to post more fully tomorrow

now who's being omgussy? ceejay hasn't said anything of substance.

I really wanted to say something but aside from imag's and PC's brief scuffle nothing really grabbed my interest on the previous page

What did you want to say?

I really wanted to say something but aside from imag's and PC's brief scuffle nothing really grabbed my interest on the previous page

What did you want to say?

only that it would be funny if both of you were town

VOTE: PC

I disagree with heip (though I do townread heip) - I don't think town are likely to risk self voting to put themselves at E-1 on D1 of a micro.

Also the proposed strategy of all claiming role and target D1 is a great way to ensure we never get a guilty and if scum don't happen to be targeted by the right type, then the NK could seriously mislead us D2.

i deliberately didn't say I was at -1 because I wanted to see what people would say and do, why didn't you?

and secondly it's a proposed strategy you can dislike it and it doesn't mean you have to follow it if you think not claiming a target is better then that's fine simply don't claim a target? it feels like a crazy nitpick to me coupled with the fact that you saying it makes me think it's a reason for voting me. Like hey this part of your strategy doesn't make sense but like you don't have to use that part of the strategy.

VOTE: imaginality

I'm am claiming cop and will be checking someone tonight.

What in the actual fuck.

intent to hammer RN

There is a part of me just saying do it right now.

VOTE: PC

VOTE: PC

UNVOTE:

This is the lim for today.

But don't want the day to end super quick.

why is this the lim for today?

Remember when PC claimed cop?

Meh, didn't even notice the talk of hypo claiming in my skim.

Back to square one.

I dunno, PC seems to be be putting more effort in discrediting Imag.

While Imag is more on the defensive.

This makes me lean that Imag is telling the truth here.

But, the timing of Imag's claim is also pretty suss.

I dunno, PC seems to be be putting more effort in discrediting Imag.

While Imag is more on the defensive.

This makes me lean that Imag is telling the truth here.

But, the timing of Imag's claim is also pretty suss.

srs question: to you defensiveness equals/has towny qualitys?

I want you to believe me. I'm pushing fairly hard because I am flat out thunderdoming with him unless you or imag have forgotten that. consider his play in this perspective he is defensive because he has been caught and is no longer interested in playing the game but has to play to his wincon. like you are not looking at motivations here at all and that concerns me.

I was gonna call the PC early self-vote to be town cuz it seems like scum would be more scared of being lolhammered than town would be

but with today's hindsight it doesnt seem like a seer would put themselves at e-1???? hmm lol

This is a good point, it was a dangerous play for a VT to do (given how early in the day it was,

imagine how little we'd have to go on today if someone did quicklim

), but even more so as a PR.

Also, when PC sorta-claimed cop imagine if cop cc-ed. That would have been an absolute clusterfuck no matter who we limmed. It makes sense as scum though.

You are going to hang on to that point like a babe sticks to his blanket. I already said why you saying it's weird it's not traditional it's not optimal, therefore it is scum is a huuuuuuuuuuge leap. you are engaging in pointless hypothetical and are pointing to me being morally lucky as scum.

also think about what image is basically saying like look back on day 1 townfolk and just engage in hypothetical and wifom until you consider what pc did as scum motivated imagine if the actual cop cc'd imagine if he was quicklimmed. like this is pointless and boring. none of that happened. I was successful in hiding n1 and I was lucky that you were a wolf and not a mafioso. You got caught that's it.

JUST THINK HOW LITTLE WE WOULD HAVE IF SOMEONE DID QUICKLIM??????? this presupposes that I'm seer you just outed yourself hello?

Can you elaborate on the last part here?

I was gonna call the PC early self-vote to be town cuz it seems like scum would be more scared of being lolhammered than town would be

but with today's hindsight it doesnt seem like a seer would put themselves at e-1???? hmm lol

This is a good point, it was a dangerous play for a VT to do (given how early in the day it was,

imagine how little we'd have to go on today if someone did quicklim

), but even more so as a PR.

Also, when PC sorta-claimed cop imagine if cop cc-ed. That would have been an absolute clusterfuck no matter who we limmed. It makes sense as scum though.

You are going to hang on to that point like a babe sticks to his blanket. I already said why you saying it's weird it's not traditional it's not optimal, therefore it is scum is a huuuuuuuuuuge leap. you are engaging in pointless hypothetical and are pointing to me being morally lucky as scum.

also think about what image is basically saying like look back on day 1 townfolk and just engage in hypothetical and wifom until you consider what pc did as scum motivated imagine if the actual cop cc'd imagine if he was quicklimmed. like this is pointless and boring. none of that happened. I was successful in hiding n1 and I was lucky that you were a wolf and not a mafioso. You got caught that's it.

JUST THINK HOW LITTLE WE WOULD HAVE IF SOMEONE DID QUICKLIM??????? this presupposes that I'm seer you just outed yourself hello?

Can you elaborate on the last part here?

image is saying imagine if someone quicklimmed PC what would we have to go on today.

I was gonna call the PC early self-vote to be town cuz it seems like scum would be more scared of being lolhammered than town would be

but with today's hindsight it doesnt seem like a seer would put themselves at e-1???? hmm lol

This is a good point, it was a dangerous play for a VT to do (given how early in the day it was,

imagine how little we'd have to go on today if someone did quicklim

), but even more so as a PR.

Also, when PC sorta-claimed cop imagine if cop cc-ed. That would have been an absolute clusterfuck no matter who we limmed. It makes sense as scum though.

You are going to hang on to that point like a babe sticks to his blanket. I already said why you saying it's weird it's not traditional it's not optimal, therefore it is scum is a huuuuuuuuuuge leap. you are engaging in pointless hypothetical and are pointing to me being morally lucky as scum.

also think about what image is basically saying like look back on day 1 townfolk and just engage in hypothetical and wifom until you consider what pc did as scum motivated imagine if the actual cop cc'd imagine if he was quicklimmed. like this is pointless and boring. none of that happened. I was successful in hiding n1 and I was lucky that you were a wolf and not a mafioso. You got caught that's it.

JUST THINK HOW LITTLE WE WOULD HAVE IF SOMEONE DID QUICKLIM??????? this presupposes that I'm seer you just outed yourself hello?

Can you elaborate on the last part here?

image is saying imagine if someone quicklimmed PC what would we have to go on today.

Gotcha now.

The D2 vote and unvote could be scum distancing. I'm not sure I buy the idea Drew didn't notice the hypoclaiming comments on his 'skim' when he already read the post in real time on D1 (see 102). And ceejay avoided giving reads on PC D1 while Drew fencesat on the guilty claim initially today which could be legit but could be wanting to appear neutral before slowly "becoming convinced" I'm scum.

Summary: plausible as partners, no smoking bullets though.

Next up, PC and Dunnstral

[imaginality]

Spoiler: PC and Dunnstral interactions

everyone should like give a set of reads and explain them or something

I don't feel I have a vote I'd want more than Random Nurse, even though it is not a very strong read.

I think imaginality had a good point about a cop claim voting themself to e-1 being weird. That makes me lean town on imaginality.
I am also getting good feelings from sheep.

heip I don't have an opinion on, they've given quite a bit but I don't lean either way. ceejay has given not enough for me to have an opinion on I feel. And politicalclout claimed cop so it is best to wait and see what happens.

The thing with what political did is that based on reactions scum can rule out who is not the cop. Depending on how Heip reacted.

imaginality is the wolf because they wrote about whether it was worth hypo claiming today when they are claiming a guilty result and we are in limlo. I wrote yesterday that we would put innos if we hypo claimed; the guilty they put forth is clearly in reaction the the guilty placed on them.

And yes sheep I did think that PC claiming was suspect but it looks like they did it because they had a role claim to fall back on.

I don't agree that PC's claim was a good play. They didn't know whether it was a mafia team or a wolf team, so how is fake claiming cop as seer for wifom a better play than true claiming seer?

It seems like the same thing really, except with no chance of having the real cop counter claim you on day 1.

imaginality is the wolf because they wrote about whether it was worth hypo claiming today when they are claiming a guilty result and we are in limlo. I wrote yesterday that we would put innos if we hypo claimed; the guilty they put forth is clearly in reaction the the guilty placed on them.

And yes sheep I did think that PC claiming was suspect but it looks like they did it because they had a role claim to fall back on.

I think the inno on drew is probably alignment indicative but I'm not exactly sure on the alignment.

I misread 202 and thought imaginality was claiming a guilty on Political clout rather than that being a seer counter claim

I misread 202 and thought imaginality was claiming a guilty on Political clout rather than that being a seer counter claim

your gut read is correct just for the wrong reasons.

Very little on D1. Dunnstral agrees with me that PC self voting doesn't seem good play for town, especially cop. But doesn't push PC really at all.

D2 Dunn started off believing PC over me because Dunn thought I was claiming a guilty. With that misinterpretation corrected I'm not sure where Dunn stands now?

I swing between thinking the misinterpretation is town-indicative (assuming the scum in their scumchat at some point today said something like "doesn't look like anyone's claiming a guilty so PC go ahead with your fakeclaim plan," so would be aware I didn't claim a guilty) and scum-indicative (consciousness of PC being scum so they misread me as claiming guilty on PC). I think probably more likely town?

Summary: plausible buddies, no smoking guns

Next up, PC and Sheep

[imaginality]

Spoiler: PC and sheep interactions

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep I am alive.

VOTE: pc

Let’s just call my townreads on Dunn and imagine correct and then our chance of hitting mafia is like 50%!!!11!1!1

E-1 btw lol

I don’t really get the benefit of your strategy?

I think the relevant information from who someone would’ve targeted is near 0

I disagree? I think it creates wifom and if scum are paranoid about getting checked, like it doesn't have to be in any particular order it's mainly their for distraction and to pressure scum into fumbling the kill.

I don’t really get the benefit of your strategy?

I think the relevant information from who someone would’ve targeted is near 0

Ehhhhh I guess I see the point more now

I disagree with it because:
a) personally if I were mafia I would probably just ignore it because the chance real cop targets is kinda low enough
b) it could force the real cop to do suboptimal checks. like maybe the useful role gets randed onto a person who was already obvious town anyway and it’s sorta wasted

but idk we can see what others think

PC do u have a completed scumgame

viewtopic.php?t=91041

interesting

I think PC is within town meta.

in the newbie game I played with him he was reallyyyy aggressive and confrontational, and I correctly townread him for the way . I was actually going to call the imaginality/pc thing w/w lol but I thought more and PC just seems town so nvm

that is not a finished post

I correctly townread him that game for the way he turned his interactions Into a really big thing. each time someone said something to him he like amplified it with a bunch of stuff in response.

the game he linked feels surprisingly different; I feel lucky that he seems so polarized lol. that game is like, way more mellow and agreeable and with broad views on all the players rather than honing in on people

hey PC

I remember in the newbie game you started by asking a looooooooot of questions. like in response to each post a list of like 10 questions

can you explain why you've stopped doing that? it bothers me a little

hey PC

I remember in the newbie game you started by asking a looooooooot of questions. like in response to each post a list of like 10 questions

can you explain why you've stopped doing that? it bothers me a little

I was completely wrong that game and scum were just sitting back and doing nothing and I called scum town. It felt like I was creating chaos instead of helping town. Plus I'm a bit busy with another game currently and this game hasn't taken off.

If I'm wrong on PC (I have no idea how reliable sheep's town meta read on PC is)

I am not insanely confident but hpz saying something similar 2 posts above you makes me feel better about it

if anyone wants to read:

viewtopic.php?sid=&f=50&t=91019&user_select%5B%5D=17484

this is the PC town game in question, heipizhu was also In it

viewtopic.php?t=91041

this the very different scum game that he linked

PC do you have any thoughts on random nurse / Dunn's push on random nurse

PC do you have any thoughts on random nurse / Dunn's push on random nurse

that their meta data post was extremely weird! the longer the game goes on with them doing nothing...it's basically just self immolation as either alignment. I'm fine with dunn pushing random nurse. If anything I agree with random nurse that nothing has really happened but them not pushing the game forward also doesn't help them by their own account. Do I believe their meta data post or do I just ignore it and see the content of their posts? I should when I have time see if they posted it in other games if they haven't and it is unique to this game then they ought to really follow what they have laid out for themselves.

where my crappy page 6 world building takes me is

sheep town

im surprisingly confident in political clout and hpz being town

dunn and imaginality are ok

and I think dunn and nurse are the scummiest

except I dont feel like dunn and nurse are w/w... I dont think the stance drew chooses to take there after subbing in is to back Dunn's push on nurse if he just subbed into a team with nurse

intent to hammer RN

intent to hammer RN

There is a part of me just saying do it right now.

VOTE: random nurse fingers and big toes crossed.

So who should we investigate on?

whoever you have a null read on, not who you have a scum read on. if they're scum you end up with no information as you were already trying to eliminate them.

I dont feel like this is something that is good to publicly discuss.

but yeah I'll offer a general thing, in this setup it's better to aim relatively scummier. cuz inno results are unlikely to be useful but guilty results are useful

I've been thinking about this too we can instead of hypoclaim claim who we are going to check d1 before the hammer. I think it would be beneficial to do this because it let's us know who everyone is actually suspicious of, who the 2 pr's would have been on if one of them flips, the objection i see is that what if the pr's target someone who is town and the pr's end up murdered. I think we can get around this by randomly assigning who checks who like from the playerlist the person above checks the person below them or something. and keep in mind we can say we are doing this but at the end of the day the person who has the role can do whatever they want. I think if they are murdered in that way we can be more honest in our inspection of who we are questioning.

If I remembered it right, this is a wwf stragegy, right? It worked in wwf because the peer sheriff have the ability to pass the sheriff role out after they die, and can give out info via the passing process. (No idea if the terminology is correct, cause I play the game in Chinese with my friends, but hopefully you got the idea)

now that I think about it more with what you said heip the strategy for this game is for town to claim outright to confuse and hide the pr's. like multiple people would claim cop and multiple people would claim seer and then at the end of the day they would claim who they would be on if they want to. and if a "cop" or "seer" died at night we would know if it was mafia or werewolves. I don't know if we nolim I think it's worth considering since it appears this setup is scumsided and while there are a lot of things that might lead to this one of them might definitely be the meta of this site to lynch day 1. I definitely remember playing a variation of this game somewhere. it's escaping me rn, but I think that's the optimal strategy. also I think it's a good strategy because whoever is red would want to claim the role they might cc. so there would definitely probably be a scum in both the ones who claimed seer and the ones who claimed cop or alternatively both scum might jump onto one role. I think this small shift in perspective of there is definitely one scum in the other group can be very helpful when looking at the game or when there are a lot more claims on one side their is probably two scum there making the other side virtually clear. I should probably read what others did before us and look up an old carbon game.

I think my inclination was like dunn/imaginality

dunn.. i was gonna call it scummy how he just poked nurse and waited for that to get nurse limmed and didnt rly sort stuff outside that? but I remember meta descriptions of dunn calling that spotchy focus town for him and I guess I believe that

political might actually be my top town

ehh

VOTE: imaginality

I'm hard claiming seer, imag is a werewolf.


The whole thing day 1 was just to hide my actual role and so I wouldn't die in the night. I think I achieved that fairly well. But I think the whole wifom of me claiming cop is marinating in towns mind and leading them down dark paths. overall I am claiming today partly because of that instead of continuing to hide and I caught a wolf, partly because nothing is really happening this game and maybe this can jump start it and town can figure out who the last wolf is tomorrow when I die tonight.

huh

The thing with what political did is that based on reactions scum can rule out who is not the cop. Depending on how Heip reacted.

do u think it was deliberate from pc to try to hunt the cop

PC who would u think imaginality's partner is. what are ur reads

I guess it feels like that was a bit towny of u tho lol

to be honest doctor drew my inclinations here are that you are the person I'd want to vote

is it towny of him or is it scum of him what is this.

and what do u think about the nightkill

it feels like you havent had much of an interest in solving unless ive prodded u

I forgot some things I thought yesterday like your apparent unpartneredness

what were you thinking yesterday?

I guess it feels like that was a bit towny of u tho lol

to be honest doctor drew my inclinations here are that you are the person I'd want to vote

is it towny of him or is it scum of him what is this.

scummy overall, ever slightly towny sequence of posts though; im not confident

I think my inclination was like dunn/imaginality

dunn.. i was gonna call it scummy how he just poked nurse and waited for that to get nurse limmed and didnt rly sort stuff outside that? but I remember meta descriptions of dunn calling that spotchy focus town for him and I guess I believe that

political might actually be my top town

ehh

and you were thinking this yesterday? I can see dunn being the other wolf. he just pops in like once yesterday and never said anything ever again.

I forgot some things I thought yesterday like your apparent unpartneredness

what were you thinking yesterday?

it's in my posts at the end of yesterday lol

PC who would u think imaginality's partner is. what are ur reads

dunn probably you maybe. dunn feels like he has just talked about setup and that's all I remember about their slot.

I forgot some things I thought yesterday like your apparent unpartneredness

what were you thinking yesterday?

it's in my posts at the end of yesterday lol

okay I'll read back I gtg and eat. brb.

PC who would u think imaginality's partner is. what are ur reads

dunn probably you maybe. dunn feels like he has just talked about setup and that's all I remember about their slot.

why do you rule out drew; can you summarize your thoughts on him?

gah

I guess if the guilty is real that reinforces my drew/imaginality team theory that I like?? but like suddenly I thought about PC and doubted my townread lol

pedit oh wow

Also @sheep can you explain your town read on PC?

town pc: very in your face, trying to get what he thinks is good to happen, lots of questioning

scum pc: seems a bit more nervous and appease-y vibes

why did you check drew over PC?

I thought there was gonna be some logical fallacy behind PC claiming cop as seer

but it actually makes perfect sense based on his strategy lol

if he claims seer, and seer is the True cop, he wont die cuz he claimed cop

if he claims seer, and seer is useless, then he might die and then the real cop knows that cop is valid and is living

it actually works geniusly bruh

why did you check drew over PC?

I thought if PC is scum I might be the NK considering I was heavily suspicious of PC all D1, so I didn't think it likely I'd live to claim a guilty. Whereas I could see Drew as an under the radar scum and thought that scum teams with Drew would have less reason to target me.

ok this makes sense to me

god

wouldnt it be a weird lucky coincidence if PC was scum fakeclaiming seer guilty on imaginality and then imaginality was the real seer ????? I feel like this points in PC's favor

I feel like if PC was scum and then the seer was anyone other than imag he wouldve been screwed over


p-edit fair enough

god

I find imaginality iso actually fairly towny except disagreeing with most points of his PC push

I was gonna call the PC early self-vote to be town cuz it seems like scum would be more scared of being lolhammered than town would be

but with today's hindsight it doesnt seem like a seer would put themselves at e-1???? hmm lol

the thing is. if I didnt have meta I'd be scumreading PC in this game. and in my last towngame with him, Without meta, I reached a confident townread. ??


but at the same time based on meta he's still a confident townread lmao

like which way I vote is almost a question of personal philosophy

Very different to the previous two posts. Lots of conversation between the two particularly from sheep to PC. Sheep basically has a meta read on PC most of the game but doubts it more recently.
That's fakeable but I think is genuine for town to have doubts/paranoia at this point whereas I don't think scum sheep would bother faking that compared with just sticking with the town meta read as reason to believe PC. Also sheep did ask others for their views on PC's other games so feels genuine.

It's interesting to note sheep and PC were the last two votes on RN, in quick succession. So is that PC seizing a quicklim chance or scum coordinating on a quicklim? I think if scum coordinating maybe less likely PC declares intent rather than just hammer. To me that fits more with scum wanting to hammer but waiting for their buddy's approval maybe.

Summary: I think unlikely to be buddies

[imaginality]

Spoiler: PC's reads and votes

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep I am alive.

Someone should pour gasoline before this game dies
VOTE: PC
Real vote.

VOTE: PC realer vote!


I've been thinking about this too we can instead of hypoclaim claim who we are going to check d1 before the hammer. I think it would be beneficial to do this because it let's us know who everyone is actually suspicious of, who the 2 pr's would have been on if one of them flips, the objection i see is that what if the pr's target someone who is town and the pr's end up murdered. I think we can get around this by randomly assigning who checks who like from the playerlist the person above checks the person below them or something. and keep in mind we can say we are doing this but at the end of the day the person who has the role can do whatever they want. I think if they are murdered in that way we can be more honest in our inspection of who we are questioning.

so I could say like I am going to peak at random nurse tonight. I think this is a great idea. what you guys think?

VOTE: PC

I disagree with heip (though I do townread heip) - I don't think town are likely to risk self voting to put themselves at E-1 on D1 of a micro.

Also the proposed strategy of all claiming role and target D1 is a great way to ensure we never get a guilty and if scum don't happen to be targeted by the right type, then the NK could seriously mislead us D2.

i deliberately didn't say I was at -1 because I wanted to see what people would say and do, why didn't you?

and secondly it's a proposed strategy you can dislike it and it doesn't mean you have to follow it if you think not claiming a target is better then that's fine simply don't claim a target? it feels like a crazy nitpick to me coupled with the fact that you saying it makes me think it's a reason for voting me. Like hey this part of your strategy doesn't make sense but like you don't have to use that part of the strategy.

VOTE: imaginality

I'm am claiming cop and will be checking someone tonight.

It seems too risky to vote yourself to E-1.
It's less risky if you're scum and know your buddy won't quickhammer you.

You claiming cop just makes me all the more sure you are scum because a cop voting themselves to E-1 would be doubly daft.

Unlike other bad mech plans I've seen in various games your one smelled scum-motivated to me. Like not considering the D2 wifom risks at all. I think town aligned players would more likely be alert for that.

Your response to my vote seems jumpy and omgussy, my vote stays.

is that your whole read? it's to risky to place yourself at -1? please regale me of all the times you were in a micro and someone hammered during rvs. saying it's less risky because one person won't hammer me doesn't even approach being a good argument. Because your argument hinges on the antecedent of all micros and quickhammering if you're right that it happens then as scum I shouldn't ever do that because as scum I only know one person won't hammer me it doesn't make it less risky especially if all the quickhammers that happened in all micros are done by town or if they are done by scum. so as soon as you get that data please let me know. Your reasoning is terrible.

I don't know if you're reading my strategy or not but it seems like you're operating on the fact that you haven't read it if so that's okay. I point out what I think the most optimal thing to do this game and then acted on it, or are you like ignoring it completely?

what are the d2 wifom risks? because I think you are using the absolutely worst outcome of my strategy and using that to argue against it. like you won't accept anything short of a perfect strategy that will let you 100% win in a social deduction game. I already said we didn't have to say who we are targeting, but that probably won't be good enough for you either.

I think my self vote did exactly what I wanted it to. find scum. you revealed yourself with your terrible argument about what town and scum would absolutely do in every single universe that exists and because town and scum would only do that I am scum.

TLDR readslist:

Dunnstral, sheep
Ceejay, heip
PC, RN

If I'm wrong on PC (I have no idea how reliable sheep's town meta read on PC is) ceejay can be the other scum slot

Back to sickbed hope to post more fully tomorrow

now who's being omgussy? ceejay hasn't said anything of substance.

PC do you have any thoughts on random nurse / Dunn's push on random nurse

that their meta data post was extremely weird! the longer the game goes on with them doing nothing...it's basically just self immolation as either alignment. I'm fine with dunn pushing random nurse. If anything I agree with random nurse that nothing has really happened but them not pushing the game forward also doesn't help them by their own account. Do I believe their meta data post or do I just ignore it and see the content of their posts? I should when I have time see if they posted it in other games if they haven't and it is unique to this game then they ought to really follow what they have laid out for themselves.

intent to hammer RN

intent to hammer RN

There is a part of me just saying do it right now.

VOTE: random nurse fingers and big toes crossed.

VOTE: imaginality

I'm hard claiming seer, imag is a werewolf.


The whole thing day 1 was just to hide my actual role and so I wouldn't die in the night. I think I achieved that fairly well. But I think the whole wifom of me claiming cop is marinating in towns mind and leading them down dark paths. overall I am claiming today partly because of that instead of continuing to hide and I caught a wolf, partly because nothing is really happening this game and maybe this can jump start it and town can figure out who the last wolf is tomorrow when I die tonight.

I think my inclination was like dunn/imaginality

dunn.. i was gonna call it scummy how he just poked nurse and waited for that to get nurse limmed and didnt rly sort stuff outside that? but I remember meta descriptions of dunn calling that spotchy focus town for him and I guess I believe that

political might actually be my top town

ehh

and you were thinking this yesterday? I can see dunn being the other wolf. he just pops in like once yesterday and never said anything ever again.

imaginality is the wolf because they wrote about whether it was worth hypo claiming today when they are claiming a guilty result and we are in limlo. I wrote yesterday that we would put innos if we hypo claimed; the guilty they put forth is clearly in reaction the the guilty placed on them.

And yes sheep I did think that PC claiming was suspect but it looks like they did it because they had a role claim to fall back on.

I think the inno on drew is probably alignment indicative but I'm not exactly sure on the alignment.

I dunno, PC seems to be be putting more effort in discrediting Imag.

While Imag is more on the defensive.

This makes me lean that Imag is telling the truth here.

But, the timing of Imag's claim is also pretty suss.

srs question: to you defensiveness equals/has towny qualitys?

I want you to believe me. I'm pushing fairly hard because I am flat out thunderdoming with him unless you or imag have forgotten that. consider his play in this perspective he is defensive because he has been caught and is no longer interested in playing the game but has to play to his wincon. like you are not looking at motivations here at all and that concerns me.

RVS-votes sheep, self-votes, then omgus votes me. Defends ceejay/Drew, approves of Dunn pushing RN, hammers RN. Claims guilty on me, suspects Dunn as scum!me's buddy, fencesits on Drew, is concerned by Drew thinking I might be inno.

[imaginality]

This is very difficult for me and I would appreciate if both sides could like tldr why they are villager and why the other is wolf lol

In like simplest form few sentences

Why I'm town:

- I chose my night target smartly to maximise chance of being alive if they were wolf
- I didn't self-vote to E-1 D1
- I'm attempting to help solve today given I'm dead tomorrow

Why PC is scum (note, not "why PC is wolf", as we don't know if PC is wolf or mafia, but if PC flips wolf then Drew is conf town):

- I'm Town Seer therefore PC is lying (admittedly this reason is subjective, but it's convincing to me :p )
- PC was likely the main lim candidate today after dodgy D1 play and hammer, so gambiting makes sense for scum in PC's slot
- PC's play D1 can be seen as cop-fishing and PC is smart enough to have figured there is a decent chance I'm Seer before PC claimed
- PC's trying to win arguments by dismissiveness and eye rolling
- PC could plausibly be buddied with Drew or Dunn
- PC still omgussy D2 e.g. suspecting Dunn is scum in 266
- PC barely trying to solve for my partner today (199, 229, 266 the only times he's even touched on it) whereas town!Seer would know they're dying tonight so would effort more today

[imaginality]

Oh btw I think the idea of limming among Dunn, Drew, sheep is seriously bad. Because if you lim between me and PC not only is there more chance we lim scum (1 in 2 vs 1 in 3) but also if scum happen to be wolves then Drew is cleared for D3.

[imaginality]

@Drew I agreee. I drafted this 12 hours or so ago but wanted to see how the discussion went before sharing my thoughts:

---
For PC to get me mislimmed he has to get one townie on board. Also in case PC is limmed instead of me he has to not make it obvious who his buddy is.

Conclusion: I think it's PC and Dunn. I think PC's suspicions of Dunn today help with distancing in case PC gets limmed instead of me, while also helping make it more likely town!Drew and/or town!sheep will go along with PC's push on me since PC's staying on their good side by not scum-reading them.

[imaginality]

but also if scum happen to be wolves then Drew is cleared for D3.

And if scum happen to be mafia, then you are cleared if we elim outside and they flip.

Please explain. I don't see how any lim (aside from PC) would clear me.

[imaginality]

Ah okay I see the point. It's swings and roundabouts I think. 6/24 your way (1/3 x 3/4), 5/24 my way (1/2 x 5/12).

Perhaps more meaningful if we put it into actual people:

Your way, we have to be right about who's scum in (Drew, you, sheep) but if we are, then half the time that's the game; half the time it's PC v me tomorrow.

My way: we have to be right about PC being scum, and if we are, then half the time it's you vs sheep tomorrow, half the time it's you vs Drew vs sheep.

I obviously know PC is scum so prefer my way but I can see it's an open question for you, sheep and Drew depending how strong your read on me vs PC is compared with your scumreads amongst the three of you

[imaginality]

Oh btw I think the idea of limming among Dunn, Drew, sheep is seriously bad. Because if you lim between me and PC not only is there more chance we lim scum (1 in 2 vs 1 in 3) but also if scum happen to be wolves then Drew is cleared for D3.

i agree with this the only person we should lim is imag or myself but I prefer imag.

imag goes from not knowing whether their are wolves to saying there are wolves to here questioning whether or not their are wolves. it just shows how he is trying to follow everything he is saying trying to stay consistent with what he should know but he forgets sometimes.

Yep, I got an inno so I don't know if there are wolves or not. All I have is speculation.
You're scum so you know for sure. Care to enlighten us?

[imaginality]

If Sheep and I are both voting for Dr Drew and neither you or imaginality quick hammer it, it becomes clear that Dr Drew is mafia. And so you or imaginality will place the finishing vote.

My first thought was that I’m not down to just lim drew because I’m not confident at all that Dunn isn’t scum

Also my concern. I don't see much "if sheep and I are voting Drew, and PC or imag DO quickhammer then (if Drew's town) we lose" wariness from Dunn there.

Dunn how convinced are you that Drew is scum rather than sheep? Like 80%? More, less?

[imaginality]

Well that's that I guess? Well played PC and presumably sheep.