Micro 1089: the coalition, again [dead PT]

[Thestatusquo]

Hello. Nice playing with you skitter.

[Thestatusquo]

I need to tank deeply about who the partner is. There's so much information.

I think peta thinking I'm scum with skitter in particular is kinda silly given how I think its correct to position around your partner in games like this.

[Thestatusquo]

I am genuinely flattered that people think I was in my scum range this game. I dont think I could replicate this game in a million years.

[Thestatusquo]

yeah it certainly felt like thats what you were at least partially trying to do. That's a big part of what led to my vote swap.

[Thestatusquo]

Muddle associatives.

[Thestatusquo]

Also I do not understand what Isis has been doing this game as either alignment but it doesn't feel particularly like playing to win con to me.

[Thestatusquo]

Also we can finally retire the SheaP Baltar.

[Thestatusquo]

it was a good bit.

[Thestatusquo]

read through pages 1-60 of the coal forming stage and have a few thoughts based on that

i haven't looked at the end of the coal phase or the post-coal phase (we invented renewable energy sources) yet but i expect that may have some interesting bits as well obviously. i have stronger memories of those tho

1) i think ari is really unlikely scum. i don't think she has much reason to come in and side with partner ari against shea there, she knows how he'll respond to that. if anything she would want to get on shea's side and push herself in while pushing ari out

2) i think shea is pretty unlikely to be scum?the way she handled shea vs ari feels like it's a tvt to me. it's slightly more likely than ari i think, but i don't really see it. the way he responded to skitter coming in and just a lot of stuff he's done this game feel pretty distinctly town shea to me

3) if it's bulge/brassherald, which i think it pretty easily could be, then i think skitter probably just knew that she would likely be able to make her way into the coal eventually and could just push her partner + some townies out of the way, and continually shade people to keep herself as one of the few consensus towns. i actually think this is probably the best strategy from her position. she kept trying to maintain scumreads on me/sheep/bulge/brooks/isis/shea. so basically everyone except tris/ari lol. and if she succeeds in undermining the perception of at least 4 of those being town (not that hard to do) then she makes it in. she also never really pushed him until she was solidly in the coal, and focused on her scumreads of me/shea and brooks and isis at times

4) i think similarly it could be sheep? his handling of her is slightly awkward and i think that she started with a default "i don't townread sheep why does everyone townread sheep" which then pivoted into more firmly pushing him out once she got some townreads. probably post-coal has more insights here

5) based on just coal forming and interactions i still think it very easily could be tris. i don't think thats my first pick though. it just would mean that skitter would be trying to boost the perception of tris being threadspewed town, rather than specifically playing for 1 in 1 out

6) isis felt townier to me on reread. i think the strangest part was where it felt like she was inserting herself into skitter's pocket when skitter didn't really ever take much action to initiate that. and isis said that skitter was scumreading her before skitter really pivoted into that (she originally townread isis) which felt oddly prophetic. it would be a slightly bold approach i guess to just openly hard townread and proxy vote your partner but also it's probably a really good approach so she might go for it

7) idk i just don't really think it's hellbooks lmao i don't have a good reason. i guess it's plausible that she would be leaning into the setting herself up as opposing skitter but not very loudly/convincingly and accepting that she is going to be the one left out. so strategically it actually fits pretty well. maybe im snowed

I think its kinda sussy that fire left the part about me in this post. I feel like if he was town he would be more likely to take it out but leaving it in kinda performatively tries to be like look how uninformed I am and I find his reasoning for a town me kinda lackluster when I think a much stronger argument could be made.

[Thestatusquo]

I mean yeah its not determinative. I just on the balance don't feel super great about fire already.

Also if I do say so myself. Managing to hit scum AND get myself NK N1 is just about a perfect day one.

[Thestatusquo]

i saw one of your opening posts and didn't like it on a gut level and then i read along and thought your approach to the coalition phase was off

like in the previous game where i replaced in it was obvious to me you *really cared* about trying to fit together a coalition (and then subsequently find scum) and here you felt like datisi that game where you were mostly tearing people down rather than trying to sort them

Yeah thats exactly why I was scum reading you as well. I think I even said something very similar to this:

I don't have any real reason to explicitly scum read skitter but her world view is just so different from mine in a way I find kind of hard to get to from a town pov.

Townies can have different reads on the game from me obviously but it's felt like every time she's interacted with me about it her interest has been in discrediting me rather than trying to find any common ground.

I think the biggest thing stuck in my craw about you skitter is that you seem to be approaching me from the perspective of like oh I have to oppose shea rather than the perspective of oh I disagree so we can maybe figure out why. That post from you felt like the first time you've been actively interested in engaging with me instead of just like coming in blasting.

In particular I don't really understand your perspective on the initial ari me interaction because it felt like you came in like oh ari is town that I must defend when there wasn't really anything on which to base a town read on at all as ari hadn't been very present outside of fluff posting and the stuff I was basing my read on so it felt like there was no curiosity from you as to if this was town v town or whatever you just came in with an assumption of ari town and started blasting at me from my PoV.

Do you want to explain your PoV to me in that spot because its the biggest part about how you've played this game that I'm having trouble seeing from a town pov.

You got me off it with how you felt like you were actually engaging with me in good faith during the very tail end of the phase though, that was real nice work.

[Thestatusquo]

I wish I was more interested in the PL for datisis large.

[Thestatusquo]

Yeah I almost added "and I'm not sure I can vibe with larges in general anymore in a way thats healthy for me"

[Thestatusquo]

tbh day 1 in that game will probably have less pages than day 1 in this game lmao

i'm on mafia vacation though

no fucking way alisae is in that game.

[Thestatusquo]

tbh day 1 in that game will probably have less pages than day 1 in this game lmao

i'm on mafia vacation though

Also this one had the benefit of the fact that at least half the posts in it can just be safely ignored.

Unless you think theres value in reading isis scum claim for the 12th time.

[Thestatusquo]

You were already depressed. You cant blame us for it.

Also maybe brass isn't doing the best with words here but it is definitely my perception from the game at the time that skitter did not want fireisred in the coalition.

I don't think thats necessarily partner indicative but fire responding "no she was ok with me in the coalition" is kind of weird to the point that I feel like I must be misunderstanding what hes saying.

[Thestatusquo]

Feel like I would probably be pushing fire and be wrong here.

i don't feel sure about brass but mostly thats bc i thought that his push on me was like really obviously scummy and nobody else seemed to care and most of you are town so idk maybe im wrong

I've made this post word for word as scum so many times.

[Thestatusquo]

Although, the more I think about it I think fireisred not knowing I considered him a pretty viable partner for skitter seems kinda genuine.

I don't think I'd expect him to lie about it as scum if he really did kill me and it seems unlikely he would have missed that if he was scum making a kill.

So point in his favor I guess.

[Thestatusquo]

What does skitter got zero pings mean

does that mean that 4 of us did dragon without pointing out to her she could TP in instead of farming toplane

in the first game i played with skitter, mathblade replaced in and then called her scum bc she hadn't used the word "ping" (as in "this pinged me" or "im getting townpings from this person"), claiming it was something she did much more as town

i went and researched a bunch of games (wow i was really motivated back then) and found that there was actually a correlation and she did say ping a lot more as town

i wasn't taking it as a super serious tell but then she ended up being scum that game lol

in the next few games we played together i made several jokes about it (see 177) and have generally been aware of how much she has said "ping"

in this game only just now i remembered to search for it and noticed she didn't use it at all, and arguably thats a failing on my part to properly scumhunt her, but also i think it's something id be a lot more aware of if i knew her alignment and i would definitely use it as a point of banter with her as a scumpartner bc i like doing that

This on the other hand sounds like nonsense to me. Not the premise, this kind of linguistic tell is interesting, but like If he thinks it's important enough that he would remember it if he was her scum buddy he would also have thought it important enough to try to use it to sort her.

[Thestatusquo]

Think I would be pretty surprised if sheep flips red here. idk.

[Thestatusquo]

As soon as I leave the game people just go for the default LHF.

I'll be pretty frustrated with fire and ari if they're both town.

[Thestatusquo]

I thought you were gonna go for fire!

[Thestatusquo]

The problem with this game is that almost everyone remaining has been objectively scummy.

I don't have a town core here at all.

[Thestatusquo]

politely disagree about the glory of said situation.

[Thestatusquo]

I guess gun to my head I probably go like fire then books here and lose.

[Thestatusquo]

I do think that Isis is kind of making very little sense with what the mindset of skitter was and how she was playing during the tris wagon so that has a lot of scum equity.

And I kinda just don't want to let Isis win if she's scum here so like

Maybe Fire then Isis.

[Thestatusquo]

they're gunna go bronze-tris and lose.

[Thestatusquo]

Honestly skitter I'm not really sure what you were going for there. What was your plan after sheep flipped town?

Was it to go after me as partnered with someone else?

[Thestatusquo]

Yeah I mean, reputation and what not.

I think going after me was extremely unlikely to work tbf.

[Thestatusquo]

ig after sheep flips town you have to like either pivot to me tris or ari and ari and tris are harder for you to square with your previous worldview.

[Thestatusquo]

yeah that's kind of what I was getting at with the other post. Your pool of options wasn't greeeeeeat.

[Thestatusquo]

I actually think it was reasonable for you to sus me after the coalition failed, for similar reasons to how I sussed tris and you but I think that it is like uniquely unlikely that I was partnered with sheep so that didn't make a lot of sense to me for you to think I was.

[Thestatusquo]

Make some sense with books or isis I think

[Thestatusquo]

ari wanted to vote me but earlier in the game said bulge was outed scum

shea apparently thought i was maybe a skitter partner but also wanted to vote tris i think

See earlier I was giving him the benefit of the doubt about maybe missing that I though he had high partner equity with skitter but he knows this now and not acknowledging it here feels like it has to be deliberate.

The nightkills very neatly match a fireisred scum world.

[Thestatusquo]

huh, wait he is acknowledging it. My brain is broken.

[Thestatusquo]

I think sheep was just extremely clearly town by gamestate at multiple points

[Thestatusquo]

Still having a hard time getting a handle on this.

I feel like brass is saying things that I conceptually find reasonable but he's not articulating that very well and Isis and fire and to some extent tris are all picking up on the superficial stuff and one of them is probably scum.

So probably they go brass today and I think he's extremely likely to flip green.

[Thestatusquo]

Idk maybe.

She had some posts in the last few pages that felt like really organic thoughts to me.

And I know this is silly but I think she'd be more invested here as scum. This game is super winnable if she's scum here.

[Thestatusquo]

Yeah I'm trying to ignore the things skitter has said when I'm thinking about the game.

Kinda impossible to do though really.

[Thestatusquo]

idec if hellbooks is scum, I want to give her the win just for the dear sister reference.

[Thestatusquo]

I think its one of [fire hellbooks isis infinity]

[Thestatusquo]

its nice seeing infinity play again

i think tris is the wrong vote though (idk the right one lol)

I mean obviously hindsight here but I don't think the game makes much sense day 1 in a tris-skitter world.

[Thestatusquo]

Might have something to do with half of them claiming scum.

[Thestatusquo]

fwiw I think the way isis played this game is borderline not playing to win con and I'm pretty annoyed by it still.

[Thestatusquo]

I appreciate that fire thinks I would have confidence here.

But I'm pretty sure all three of them are scum.

[Thestatusquo]

do you think town wins here

I have found it to be a somewhat reliable tell in elo spots like this that when someone asks questions like this setting themselves "apart" from the town linguistically they have a higher chance of being scum.

[Thestatusquo]

Pretty happy I was right about brass/bulge all along.

I think its a coin flip for which of books/fire is scum.

Probably like 65-35 to fire imo. I haven't paid any attention to today though.

[Thestatusquo]

I would be happy if that's the case