Micro 1091 - Office Hours (The Curve Mafia PT)

[GuiltyLion]

hey hey hey!

this is gonna be a difficult PL to win against. Catboi and Ydrasse and Pooky are all each their own flavor of intimidating, and Bell is usually read as obvtown. and there's elle who looks like an alt, so that's a wildcard.

any particular pregame thoughts or plans, or are we just gonna wing it and see what happens? since you've got the PR I'm probably going to avoid putting myself in any kind of situation where I would need to vote you, at least for D1. tracker with a doc fakeclaim available means we're almost certainly looking at at least one investigative, right

[GuiltyLion]

I should take the roommate VT claim so you have room to claim an action if you get watched or tracked somehow

also two millers is making me wonder whether we have an investigative at all, it feels a bit unbalanced to have the cop pool instantly get narrowed to 6 players. but I'm not really a mech guy so happy to hear other theories there

[GuiltyLion]

yeah now that we know the tracker I think it's safe for me to claim it as we can kill Luke if we need

I'm thinking if I get to E-1 I can explain in more detail my thoughts about catboi framing it as "TvS" because I know if Luke's telling the truth then he won't die so mafia must have some counter to a follow the tracker set up

[GuiltyLion]

sorry to be clear - because I would be fakeclaiming that I'm doc as I give that explanation

[GuiltyLion]

:/ man I feel bad about how that went down

I didn't mean to demotivate catboi that much I was being manipulative and trying to tactically act like my pride was wounded but I didn't think it would escalate to that point

Prism if catboi is hanging around in the dead thread or upset about it OOG if you think it would make him feel any better please let him know that I am mafia and I didn't mean to ruin his enjoyment of the game like that. I stepped on something sensitive and I probably didn't need to do it that way, he was onto me and I defaulted to a card I thought would work, I wish I had known/realized he would be that impacted by it

[GuiltyLion]

I'm feeling guilty that it also worked to get Bell to reverse his read on me, but at the same time that's exactly why I did it

I haven't been scum in a long time, I'm going to reflect and try to learn from this game how I could have been a more fun player while also being a mafia guy. I don't like that I feel like I have to be manipulative to be townread, I need to learn from Pooky

[GuiltyLion]

ok so I see two possible approaches

the safe/conservative route would be to kill Luke to get the PR out of the way

the high variance high risk high reward route would be to kill someone else, mainly I am thinking Bell

my thinking is if one of the miller claims is scum they don't really need to kill the tracker, and Luke is not read town on his own outside of the claim

but if he gets a guilty it could make things thorny, obviously

[GuiltyLion]

I agree, I doubt there's a protective in this set up. I think leaving Luke alive is a good move, the scenario where he misses and he's alive is quite good for us and I think killing him would only bolster the two miller claims since there's no reason a scum masquerading as a miller wouldn't leave him alive.

I am willing to take the risk on getting tracked, I think you are better set up to endgame than I am so maybe I should do the kill and you can target Luke so if he tracks you your doc claim is supported. I also agree you can fakeclaim Beholder, support Luke if he guilties me, and that should set you up pretty well for endgame

Do you agree Bell is the best non-Luke kill here? he's pretty universally townread and he scares me because he's unpredictable. Plus since he did townread me at EOD I can claim scum!me would not have killed someone townreading me.

that would mean:

GuiltyLion kills Bell

Dunnstral tracks Lukewarm

feel free to make changes if you're not on board

[GuiltyLion]

@Prism - I intend for that to be a first submission of night actions but if Dunnstral makes an unambiguous change and I do not explicitly confirm (I will be around most of tomorrow so hopefully this won't happen, but just in case) then please take any of his follow up submissions as endorsed by me

[GuiltyLion]

ah sorry Prism I will be sure to make Dunnstral submit the action going forward

also @Dunn I figure you are already planning this but if you get a result that Luke tracked me then you should bus me ASAP, even if you don't immediately go for a Beholder claim get your vote on me and push me before Luke can out it if possible

[GuiltyLion]

will be interesting to see what Cakez claims, I figured a VT claim was safest as town already knows there's too many PR/named roles claimed out there. I'm still playing to potentially go down toDay or toMorrow and I think you will have a relatively easy time selling Cakez as my partner. Pooky I think is the biggest threat remaining it's impressive he immediately clocked you as a scum tracker but fortunately I don't think the rest of the town will listen, at least not now. I'd probably try to get rid of him before 3p tho, a Cakez/Meuh/Dunn 3p seems ideal

[GuiltyLion]

Cakez implied he's not really a visiting PR given he seemed to know Luke didn't track him, so not sure what he will claim but I doubt he's a night time threat. if he claims BP that might be a soft 'CC' to your role so we may have to be flexible to get rid of him today

[GuiltyLion]

how would you feel if I speed hammered RH9 if he gets to E-1

I won't do it on Cakez since I think we should try to save him but if I see an opportunity to end D2 quickly on RH9 I might take it even if it means I for sure go down the next day. or do you think we need to manipulate the gamestate more?

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like I'm gambling a bit by balking at the easy Ali vote but I think we're setting ourselves up pretty well now, this has been a productive D2

I think either of Meuh/Cakez/Alisae will be mislimmable if we play our cards right regardless of whichever of Meuh/Alisae goes today

the main thing we're gonna have to worry about is Cakez RBing correctly, I am pretty sure he slipped that he holstered his shot when he knew Luke didn't have a track result on him. so we're gonna have to think hard and outguess him on who he's most likely to block

[GuiltyLion]

although assuming we get a miselim today then even in the worst case world where one of us gets correctly RB'd, we can always try to claim he purposefully didn't kill as a gambit for a game winning miselim

[GuiltyLion]

oh that's also an interesting idea

I kinda want Luke out of the game just because he's unlimmable but the spiciness it would cause if Cakez RBs a town player is tempting

I guess the big risk though is Luke tracks Cakez to one of us, it would be hard to explain that where we're town even in the event we intentionally no kill lol. I'll think about it

[GuiltyLion]

I've been thinking a lil bit but not 100% sure yet, here are my thoughts

while we are in a good spot in terms of the number of players who are still miselimmable, I am feeling it's actually more precarious than it seems because if you flip then it is going to soft clear Cakez, maybe Meuh, due to the setup spec as well it's going to look pretty incriminating on me. whereas if I flip I think that just kinda confirms the "one scum in GL/RH9" theory that a lot of people were picking up on and I feel you have a decent shot at endgame in a number of 3p scenarios.

so with that said, I think the worst possible outcome - the 'risk of ruin', as it were - is if Cakez decides to RB you and there is no kill. even if we gambit and no kill, I would still hate for Cakez to RB you and see that as a guilty. I think we'd have to try to turn it into a 1v1 vs you and Cakez and argue he's gunning for a game winning miselimination that day. it's probably still winnable but it's the situation that scares me the most

so I think if we kill tonight, then it should be me to do the action so there is no universe where you are guiltied. and I don't really see much downside in killing Luke, virtually every other slot may be a potential miselim but Luke is not going to be eliminated at this point and if he latches onto us it is going to be harder to talk him off than it would be to fight with anybody else.

so I think we can be pretty conservative and have me kill Luke, it feels like a safe play and the worst case scenario is that I am RB'd and we have to play around me vs Cakez and me potentially going down.

the only thing I'm concerned with killing Luke is that I think Pooky will step up and be a threat tomorrow, he's been saying he only sees scum!Cakez with catboi slot and now that it flipped town if he lock TRs Cakez we're gonna have to get him on Meuh

[GuiltyLion]

Actually I just had one more thought

Why would I do the kill if my partner was claimed miller?

I think me getting roleblocked and flipped would be a risk of soft clearing both Meuh and Pooky if anybody follows the Miller logic through, setting you up to 1v1 Cakez regardless, so maybe being afraid of that 1v1 is not a good reason to play around making it impossible to guilty you. I will sleep on this. Cakez has also been TRing you and you could theoretically have a doc shot so the odds of him RBing you may be low in general.

Mainly im just thinking all paths to winning this game require either winning tomorrow outright or limming Cakez in 3p

Also I think you know this already but if im flipped you can always point to me asking you about claiming 1 shot as an atrempt to fish whether you had another shot or not

[GuiltyLion]

yes that's also a good point we don't want a tracker soft inno on Cakez

if you think you should make the kill I think I've talked myself into being on board with that

if SirCakez blocks you we can try to go all in on limming him for the win, though I think that's the most difficult scenario, especially if Luke also tracks SirCakez

in fact yeah I think that's the most likely path where we lose the game, is Luke tracks SirCakez to you who blocks the kill. but I am sensing that's still ultimately better than the world where all that happens but on me instead

[GuiltyLion]

yeee let's get this bread

[GuiltyLion]

I will try to generally pay attention to the game to be around to quick hammer,

if you see an opportunity to QH and I haven't posted yet post in here your availability at that time and we can coordinate it, I'll do the same

[GuiltyLion]

If you wanted to randomly be spicy you could also claim 2 shot and that you tried to protect Luke last night lol

Totally up to you obviously but would throw some extra chaos into the mix

[GuiltyLion]

lmao I just started ISOing myself and my interactions with Meuh and I think it would be pretty easy to convince oneself we're buddies

it's a blend of vaguely explained early game townread, suddenly reversing into shade but never really strongly pushing the wagon and even discouraging one at one point, barely talking directly to each other other than an early game me rebuffing her scumread by appealing to meta, making excuses not to vote her mid/late D2...

I wouldn't go too hard in pushing it today just yet but yah if I go down and you're in 3p or you want to sell your confidence in your team solve then definitely go digging in there I think it's an easy spin

[GuiltyLion]

I hope I'm not making a terrible mistake by voting you but I'm pretty confident one of Cakez/Pooky will vote Meuh and then I can hammer

if this winds up being a game losing move I apologize but I think this is my best shot at making Meuh+I look teamed

[GuiltyLion]

now if it starts to feel dicey I would encourage you to pull out Meuh/GL associatives

but only if it feels like you're in serious danger of being limmed, again I wouldn't jump the gun too early on it

I reread Cakez/Pooky I'd be really surprised if they vote you here. I was worried about Pooky solving the game at the 11th hour but I think his concern about being the person who makes a game losing choice is genuine and he's likely to defer to Cakez

[GuiltyLion]

ok yah if Meuh is gonna start casing this super hard maybe you need to push Meuh/GL as a team

I don't think I can defend it without it looking too incriminating

[GuiltyLion]

gg Dunn very well played, was a lot of fun conniving with you! Thanks for holding steady during my moments of overthinking or panic and excellent job getting townread. I feel like you did the hardest and most important part of being TR in 5p, I mostly just got to stir shit and do just enough to avoid being limmed. But this was a strong PL and I'm thrilled that we pulled it out