Setup:
8 vanilla townies
5 mafia goons
- Deathless game, nightless after night one.
- Day talk.
- After the first elimination on day one, the eliminated player will flip but will not die.
- On night one, every unflipped member of the mafia will pick one town player to pair up with and the order in which the pairings shall be voted on.
- On day two the pairings will be revealed, and the town will vote to flip (but not kill) one player in each pair, going through the pairs in the order submitted by the mafia. The player that isn't flipped becomes unflippable.
- Mafia wins if there are three or more unflipped goons after each pair is voted on; town wins if three goons flip.
[SETUP] COUNTERCLAIM
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Skygazer anyFor My Next Guestany
- For My Next Guest
- For My Next Guest
- Posts: 11806
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- Pronoun: any
- Location: Baltimore
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Skygazer anyFor My Next Guestany
- For My Next Guest
- For My Next Guest
- Posts: 11806
- Joined: June 17, 2018
- Pronoun: any
- Location: Baltimore
I'll post EVs at some point. The numbers can probably be adjusted.-
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Datisi he/him, it/itsDrawn from Memoryhe/him, it/its
- Drawn from Memory
- Drawn from Memory
- Posts: 26008
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- Pronoun: he/him, it/its
- Location: Croatia
oh hey, this seems kind of familiar...
there's some interesting dynamics with all the pairs being known in advance, and most town members having a known scum to them from the start of d2. i'd be interested to see how this version would pan out, potentially even play in it.I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”~M-
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Skygazer anyFor My Next Guestany
- For My Next Guest
- For My Next Guest
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- Pronoun: any
- Location: Baltimore
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Flower They/ThemGoonThey/Them
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 230
- Joined: April 14, 2023
- Pronoun: They/Them
Day 2 onwards is just 50/50's so the EV's pretty simple to calculate with a binomial distribution
In the d1 town lim case scum winrate is just the probability of having 0/1/2 scum limmed over 5 trials, in the d1 scum lim case scum winrate is the probability of having 0/1 scum limmed over 4 trials so
Spoiler: d1 town lim
Spoiler: d1 scum lim
Scum winrate = (8/13 * 1/2) + (5/13 * 5/16) = 89/208 ~= 0.428
Town winrate = 119/208 ~= 0.572Plural | Experimental alt of usesPython-
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Skygazer anyFor My Next Guestany
- For My Next Guest
- For My Next Guest
- Posts: 11806
- Joined: June 17, 2018
- Pronoun: any
- Location: Baltimore
ye it's fairly townsided but probably made up for in scum's thread control? increasing the number of townies has it gradually approach 50/50 but less players is probably more feasible. (I'm kind of paraphrasing Jingle btw)
i think datisi's works better as a concept tho lol
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