Open 884: Another Newbie Game | Game Over!

[Mr.K]

Hello, hello!

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Mr.K]

I'd be interested in seeing what Purplemango does with the information he received earlier.

[Mr.K]

VOTE: oopsie this feeling overworded and a bit lamist. agree with the dann read though

I agree with both, the take on Oopsie's wordy and admittedly kinda strange explanation, and the Dannflor read.
UNVOTE: Dunnstral
VOTE: OopsieDaisy

[Mr.K]

Wdym?
Also sorry i wasn't really talking i was in school

I meant that you asked why people are voting randomly, and got an answer to the question. There's very little knowledge to go with in the beginning so people vote to get reactions out of the others.

Now there's been a bit of talk and some voting but you haven't said much. Not saying much is not very valuable (I now know you've been in school, though) so I wanted to prod you for some sort of a comment on something.

[Mr.K]

Quick questions:
Mr. K - How much forum mafia experience do you have? Wanna see if me giving you the benefit of the doubt on my read there is actually a good idea or just a bit silly.

This is an interesting question. I played a couple of games (I think 2 or 3) like 10 years ago, and a few years before that I played one or two. So I have some experience but not a lot and it's from 10+ years ago. Wouldn't be able to tell if I'd give myself the benefit of the doubt or not.

[Mr.K]

For the time being I feel fine keeping my vote on Daisy. Her case against me feels sort of made up. I mean her own version of the event chain was that Infinity voices an actual reason to vote her, and I jump on it. While I agree, that a scum would certainly welcome this sort of an easy chance to slip in an additional vote, what should a townie do if they agree with Infinity's thoughts (the thoughts that Daisy seemed to agree made sense)? Not vote her and rather keep the random vote? This doesn't really add up to me.

Cook's town read on KittyTacky feels off to me, unless it's somehow based on their previous games. I don't see anything at all that Kitty's done that would warrant a town read specifically, even if it's a light one.

[Mr.K]

how would you expect Daisy to distinguish between you hopping onto her wagon as scum versus as town?

like you self admit that the circumstances would be welcome for scum, why is Daisy supposed to give you the benefit of the doubt here?

I see it the other way around. There's a justifiable (in her eyes, based on her reaction) accusation made towards her. Another person agrees with that accusation. How does that make him scum? If we agree that the vote could be viable for both scum and townie, and we know there's more townies than scum in the game, I don't see it as giving me the benefit of a doubt if she's town - especially when she wasn't under the hammer or anything. I'd see it as town making an educated decision that they'll probably change when they realize she's probably town.

[Mr.K]

I almost want to scumread Dann for this but it doesn't feel like scum would be so brazen??? Null on Dann.

Yeah, I kinda look at what Dann is doing and think "Do I agree? Not sure. Does it make sense? Probably?" Could be scum playing complicated mind games, but if that's what he is he's doing it well, cause I think it's unlikely that I'd vote him on D1.

[Mr.K]

I think you're reading a bit much into 65/69

Can you elaborate what you meant with the "this line of questioning" in #65? I also had a reaction to this comment earlier, but I wasn't sure if I'm being biased because I had just got a "confirmation" (not literally a confirmation, but my read had just become stronger) on my read on Daisy.

[Mr.K]

I'm not seeing how Mr. K doesn't understand why I'm voting him? I think my explanation in 93 makes it pretty clear how I came to that conclusion.

Yes, it does. And this is the sort of explanation I was waiting for you to give, and the reason I had to kind of tip-toe around my answer when Dannflor wanted to know how I expected you to react. I wanted to hear the explanation from you.

So yes, it does explain your logic when voting me and I'm back to the original reason (the one Infinity pointed out first) for voting you. Didn't reply earlier cause I wanted to go through the game with fresh eyes and try to figure out if you're still the most suspicious for me.

Infinity 324 seems town to me.

Dannflor I covererd in #102

Dunnstral and KittyTacky - pretty much null.

Gamma Emerald is a tough one. A couple of her messages have felt off to me, and she's more or less explained them by vibes... vibes I don't agree with, but that's the thing about vibes, maybe we just feel differently. At any rate, I'd rather vote Daisy between the two.

Cook and Purplemango have been fairly inactive, which always makes me feel suspicious so I'm trying to remain aware of how inactivity doesn't necessarily mean scum. Purplemango is new too, which doesn't make it easier. I'm still waiting to hear the reasoning for Cook's town read on Kitty.

OopsieDaisy - I still agree with Infinity on #35. But considering that part of the reason for moving the vote was to see how she reacts (and that we've now seen), I do think I'd now rather move my vote on Cook. No-one's currently voting her so that inactivity feels awfully convenient. More importantly, I still find the randomly tossed town read off.

UNVOTE: OopsieDaisy
VOTE: Cook

[Mr.K]

I don't know who to vote for, and I also don't want to get into a situation where I forget about it or something

While I understand the problem, you never really

know

who you should vote for. At some point you just have to make a decision based on the information you have.

[Mr.K]

I'm getting a bit worried about Purplemango. He pretty much said that his plan is to not advance the game. Yes, he is new and so a lot can be explained and forgiven through that, but where do you draw the line then? Being new shouldn't give immunity either.

Will see what Cook comes up with and decide after that.

[Mr.K]

I'm getting a bit worried about Purplemango. He pretty much said that his plan is to not advance the game. Yes, he is new and so a lot can be explained and forgiven through that, but where do you draw the line then? Being new shouldn't give immunity either.

Will see what Cook comes up with and decide after that.

I don't think that is what they said. I believe they meant that they are busy so pressure on them wouldn't produce content.

Yeah, you might be right.

[Mr.K]

I’ve decided 179 feels like a scum post

I'd be curious to know why. I pretty much just tried to push him into playing the game.

[Mr.K]

I feel alright voting Cook still. While the analysis had a couple of things I hadn't really thought of (namely Gamma's play so far and Dunnstral's absence), it was mostly just kind of the kind of thing she was supposed to post.

I didn't get an answer to my initial question on that weird Kitty town read from earlier, and in fact Kitty was barely touched in the post at all. I suppose that ship has sailed.

Furthermore, the vote on Infinity based on "hasn't posted anything worth anything" feels as off as that Kitty tr did.

[Mr.K]

Yeah, the actual deadline is mighty unhandy for me. It's soon midnight here so once I go to sleep I'm gonna be gone until the deadline.

[Mr.K]

Oh yeah, sorry! I didn't realize the time counter is actually live. I had thought it was a more sensible hour, so looking at the time now did kinda confuse me.

[Mr.K]

So we have two towns now, of whom:

Daisy said she would vote anyone but "OopsieDaisy, Dannflor or KittyTacky" (leaving Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, Mr.K, Infinity 324, Purplemango).

Cook said she'd think we'd find scum in "Gamma, Dann, Infinity, Mr.K" so there's quite a bit of overlap, especially when Cook also added that she'd be surprised if Dann wasn't town.

I obviously don't particularly enjoy being one of the three overlapping names but also don't think the overlap necessarily means anything. Just drawing together the information we have from confirmed town.

What strikes me odd about the kill is that Daisy wasn't exactly the most obvious option I think. Pretty much everyone agreed that Kitty would be town, for example, so killing Kitty would have made more sense... unless he's actually scum.... unless they deliberately chose to keep Kitty alive to make us think he's scum, especially him being the one hammering the kill (which I myself don't think is an indication of anything in this particular case, we were running out of time - especially when Dann said he'd be around at deadline).

---

All of the above is just me gathering my thoughts and not really implying anything.

However, now that I think of the final votes, a couple of things do come to mind: if Kitty's scum and Dann is town, wouldn't it have been easier for Kitty to not hammer? He'd trust Dann to take all the potential blame of the action. Yes there would be a small chance that Dann would miss the deadline after all and we'd lose the lynch of a townie, but scum would still pick up one free kill and Dann would look even worse the next day.

When I look at the names pointed out by Cook (that Daisy was ok voting as well), I have to ask if and why others find Infinity potentially scummy? Cook never really explained her view in a way that I'd have agreed with it and I still don't see why Infinity would seem scummy but I'm wondering if I'm now being somehow blinded by the fact that I agreed with him early on in the game and he then didn't really do anything that seemed off to me.

Dannflor's late vote-switch on me feels like it would mean he's likely town? I mean, I know I'm town and for the sake of argument let's say that you'd also think that I'm town. We now also know that Cook is town and was at E-1 when Dann switched his vote to me. If he's scum, he'd also know that we're both town so it would feel kinda risky for him to start rocking the boat like that, casting late shame on another townie when one's already being lynched. So I think he's town.

Just to address his concerns about me: I see what he means but my intention with the “Going to see what Cook does and then think and make a decision” was not to be lamist but to repeat (to Cook) that we're waiting on her.

[Mr.K]

However, now that I think of the final votes, a couple of things do come to mind: if Kitty's scum and Dann is town, wouldn't it have been easier for Kitty to not hammer? He'd trust Dann to take all the potential blame of the action. Yes there would be a small chance that Dann would miss the deadline after all and we'd lose the lynch of a townie, but scum would still pick up one free kill and Dann would look even worse the next day.

Scratch this bit! Sorry, I somehow missed that Dann had already voted Cook, so he wouldn't have been able to hammer. I still don't think Kitty is scum though but this line of thought doesn't "prove" it.

[Mr.K]

First of all, I can see that a lot of thought went into your post above.

Presuming this was sarcasm, referring to the vote I had missed.... In my defense, he voted in an otherwise empty post so I think I missed it exactly because I was trying to think too hard

I wonder why you are placing a lot of weight in Cook's reads. OopsieDaisy was killed by the mafia, but Cook was eliminated during the day, and it's not for certain how much of a part mafia played in that, or if it was an elimination of convenience rather than due to their reads. We know Cook was town, but I don't believe we have a reason to place importance on Cook's reads.

I don't know if I'm placing that much weight on her reads, really. I just thought that it would be a relatively good perspective to start the day off with having a look at what the people we know for sure were town were thinking, especially when there seemed to be an overlap with both of the two. But yes, I do agree that it doesn't make a big if any difference.

[Mr.K]

Oh, ok! Sorry and thanks then!

[Mr.K]

Yeah, so somewhat annoyingly the main thing that has changed for me is that I see more town now but not really more scum.

I do agree with Dannflor that #251 feels town,

especially

considering how Purplemango played D1. On D1 he wasn't all that active and if he's scum I think it would have been a lot easier to start D2 by something more vague, as opposed to giving an actually useful answer to my concerns (which I also do agree with). I mean, if he's scum, he basically just started D2 off by explaining to me why they decided to kill Daisy, which feels awfully helpful when he definitely had the option of not doing that.

What I now just noticed - probably because I now think Purplemango is town - was #186 which now in hindsight feels town. Another one of those posts where it probably would have been better for scum to leave me with my misinterpretation rather than clarify things for a townie. In general, while I still sort of agree with Cook's observation from D1 about how Dunnstral's somehow managed to stay under the radar quite well (I wonder if it's because the names Dunnstral and Dannflor feel so similar, whenever one posts something I feel "one of the pair" posted something, if that makes sense?), he does seem more helpful to town than the rest of the people.

Gamma and Infinity seem to have a very similar play style in my eyes. Also their interaction at times actually made me feel it could be organic for a scum pair. But at the same time, that's not really based on anything else than a vibe, which is what I myself was criticizing Gamma for in D1. I also have some pretty serious self doubt about whether I can analyze the game in enough depth to do these sort of tells correctly, so I'm doing my best to ignore this vibe. At any rate Even without it, I think they are the two that stand out for me cause I still think Kitty hasn't really don anything overly suspicious, except for being sort of inactive. I do think that the "I don't think scum claims anything except VT here" felt strange at his hammer, but I honestly cannot tell how typical/un-typical this sort of "read" would be for a hammer post on this site.

[Mr.K]

Oh, I did also have a look at the game Gamma was referring to regarding Infinity. I don't think I agree that the way of playing seems similar to me but I obviously have no reference points other than these two games, so I can't tell how he "usually" plays etc.

[Mr.K]

do you have reasons to suspect Gamma independently, Mr. K?

Yes, mainly the same suspicion I had in D1. I generally don't really agree with her reads in addition to which I also don't see much support for them. She's also seemingly active but a lot of that activity seems sort of superficial.

#36
#46

Here I don't get the same vibe at all myself.

#65

Here I didn't like the line of questioning by Oopsie. We later do find out not only that she is town but she also explains her thought process a bit more, but I still don't think the logic behind her thoughts was very strong. Probably more importantly, this is one of the examples where I feel Gamma could be "hiding in plain sight", just comment something that makes it seem like she's kind of scum-hunting, but not really doing anything useful. Like, this comment she could easily explain away to literally any direction if she needs to. I asked about it later and in #105 she explained it a bit further, but to me the explanation felt like a non-explanation as well, and I again didn't agree with what she was saying either

Other examples of these posts that make her seem active:

#69
#144
#181, #183, #187
While I agreed with the end result here, I didn't really like the she got to her conclusion. It felt like she acted as if she needed convincing but in the end didn't really need much convincing so she got to make three seemingly townish posts for doing something she would have done anyway.
#215

But despite the long list of posts that I'm citing, I can't say that my case is particularly strong. I have the same doubts I had on D1, most of this could be explained by us simply thinking differently. She feels one thing but can't put a pin on why (it's just a vibe) and I disagree with it and also don't share that vibe. Similarly part of my suspicions towards her are based on me "having a vibe" as well.

I think I started pointing fingers now for a couple of reasons: upon a re-read the interaction with Infinity jumped out a bit more while earlier I had kind of ignored it (possibly cause I thought Infinity was town) and really a process of elimination:

If Dann's town, Purplemango's town and I'm town who do we have left?

Dunnstral, Gamma, Infinity, Kitty

Out of the four I think Dunnstral feels more town than the others so we're down to the three. My main issue with Kitty is the slightly odd comment on the hammer and him being somewhat inactive on D1. Does that make him town? Not necessarily, but it does make an even weaker case than my suspicions towards Gamma and Infinity. Especially after the remaining two happen to be the same whose interaction I had just found somewhat indicative of a potential scum pair. This pairing-theory is a thing I am trying to keep in the background, but it's now of course difficult to completely unsee it.

[Mr.K]

ahh yeah gamma's read on you would be tough to fake

What is this referring to?

[Mr.K]

and kitty tacky going on you despite shading me in that way gives me the heebie jeebies

This I'd like to get cleared up as well.

[Mr.K]

Well, for once a lot has happened here.

I agree with Dunnstral on #364 and I don't think #369 really clears that at all.

However, funnily enough I think #367 makes her seem a bit more town to me. My first take was of course the confirmation on how we simply seem to be seeing things completely differently. I mean, I - for instance - happen to think that openly admitting to eating the confirmation-bias apple doesn't mean anything at all. Confirmation bias is something that literally everyone has. To me seeing someone think that admitting confirmation bias is bad is potentially emotional reasoning and in any case poor problem solving. But people are different. This would also probably tie into my earlier thoughts as well ones I discussed in #316) and my whole issue with her vibing and whatnot. It's also entirely possible that Gamma's actual thought process doesn't perfectly reflect what she posts, so the only way I could even attempt to put this into context would be if I had played with her before. And so I did what I didn't really want to do, and went back to reading that other game she was earlier referring to.

And to me it seems in that in that game she was vibing a lot less, and generally being more analytical than in this game. But in that game she was scum. So the way she's playing now isn't how she was playing when she was scum in the other game. This is of course only two games that I'm looking at (and I wasn't even playing the other game so in context the game might have been different) but I don't know... it makes me think that it could be that she is more analytical than she lets out in this game (so she is scum hunting) but is more guarded with what she says when she's town. I also sort of understand her case against Purple, and it's mostly consistent with her D1 too.

So what to do when I thought she's scum, then got a bit of this (agreeing with Dunnstral) and a bit of that (looking at the other game)? I guess I'm stuck at "maybe she's not."

And so right now I'd vote Infinity if it didn't put them at E-1.

[Mr.K]

dunn/purple maybe

It's not clear how you got here. Also Dann is right, you did say you were going to reconsider Dann in 381, and then again in 403, but then say you don't think they are mafia. And this seems to be without actually doing any reconsideration.

Going back to 259, I think your vote and reasoning here are suspicious.

VOTE: Infinity 324

This puts him at E-1 I believe.

[Mr.K]

Mr. k why didn’t you comment on me theorizing about you and Kitty being a team

Did that not bother you at all

You mean #342? No, I can't say it really bothered me. You literally said you're being paranoid about it, so it's not like I had much to address and it was early enough that I thought you'll probably change your mind. And if not, you'd at least end up giving more of a reason for it than our reads of each other being weird.

General reminder to use people's listed pronouns.

My apologies, I posted it at like 2:30am so I was half asleep!

[Mr.K]

How do you feel about Infinity now Dannflor? You unvoted without a word, which I thought was because they were at E-1, but now you're in the same wagon with them.

[Mr.K]

i don't really think gamma/infinity makes sense as a solve (your solve)

Was my solve the reason you were voting them to begin with?

[Mr.K]

Yes, but you were voting Infinity and now you're voting the person Infinity is voting for. I find this a bit strange.

[Mr.K]

That's E-1 again.

[Mr.K]

Mr K why did you stop thinking Infinity was town

I don't really see what made you changed your mind there in your ISO

I suppose the main reason is that they simply dropped to the back of the line. What made me change my mind from "I think Infinity's town" into "I think Infinity might not be town" was probably initially the way in D1 they were, similarly to Gamma, often being active without actually doing much. Infinity's later comments (that they often have no scum reads and that they feel demotivated) could of course explain this but don't make them feel any more town. Initially I would have wanted to vote Gamma out but her later posts have now changed that order. So who else?

[Mr.K]

Oh well. I'm gonna have to CC. I'm a Town Tracker and targeted Gamma on the first night. She didn't target anyone.

[Mr.K]

I didn't

[Mr.K]

It's 1am here again so I need to head to bed for the night. I should be able to check in tomorrow before the deadline in some capacity.

[Mr.K]

GG, wp all! Made the last day proper intense, had me second guessing my thoughts as well!