Open 888 | Welcome to Feryland! -- End!

[Dannflor]

hi im the person that correctly scum read Black in that game Dragon linked

for the record i would not have requested replacement into this game if i didn't think black was town here

[Dannflor]

dragon can you explain how you emotionally went from this:

Feel free to eliminate me because I fucking threw this game.

Or alternatively, if someone has a guilty or a hot scumread, let me know.

No, you are right.

I am trying to get myself limmed so I don't get mislimmed in ELo, lol.

to the confidence of this:

Do note that's E-1 (not that I'm complaining)

[Dannflor]

because that does not feel like your actions are matching your emotions

[Dannflor]

in fact that emotional inconsistency feels eerily similar to my own scum game in Purgatory where I just open wolfed with incorrect reads, performatively felt bad about my incorrect reads, and then continued pushing incorrect reads:

viewtopic.php?t=87252

I am so embarrassed right now

Be back tonight

I'm not sure how much I trust my individual reads this game

i just...

have no faith in any of my individual reads this game

[Dannflor]

Like for fuck's sake, I started the day by telling people to eliminate me because I know I just don't live to 3p ELo.

then why on earth do you suddenly have the confidence to quick elim Black - even after you admit you could be conf biasing - when you being wrong would mean you're stuck in 5p Elo tomorrow

[Dannflor]

please don't murder me if I'm wrong because this was some weeks ago

like what

your stated uncertainty does not match up with your actions here

if you're town you literally are gamethrowing here

[Dannflor]

anyways I'll be back later tonight to properly read up and such

please do not kill me in the meantime

[Dannflor]

How much of this game have you read, Dann?

Black’s ISO and Day 2

I’m working on reading now

[Dannflor]

wow there's a lot of quote wall posters in this game

[Dannflor]

Hi Dann, are we then to conf TR you as you wouldn't take the role if Black had not been town, is that what you are saying?

that comment was mainly directed at Dragon if-town

he's basing part of his scum read on my slot based on another game that just ended where i was correctly scum reading black

I think I've built up a pretty solid mental model of black as a player since then, I'm not like infallible, but I'll just say I was pretty sure I was replacing into a town slot

do with that what you will

[Dannflor]

I have a question for you though: what made you feel Black was town before you repped? Maybe I can also see it.

I'll post about this like exactly once because I don't think this is gonna be very useful for many people in this game. but since you asked

largely, town Black is a lot more reactive than scum Black. Black enjoys scum a lot and she tends to take on a proactive role in her games, whether that's distancing with a buddy or pushing a miselim or just generally sowing discord

Black's early game here is very relaxed and gave me the vibes of her being content to let information filter in and figure out the game that way

it's quite the stark contrast the game i just finished playing with her where within 5 pages of the game starting she'd launched a pretty hefty push against her scum partner and myself and was pretty invested in getting herself town read and establishing herself as a major player in this game

in her town games her approach to the game doesn't focus so much on establishing herself in the town core, she's content to play the detective role and *figure the game out*, and I felt her ISO here matched the latter model much more closely

[Dannflor]

Like I think if someone quickhammer(ed) Black they'd be autolimmed tomorrow.

But maybe I am stupid and that's not how it works in Newbies.

with how many wagons got to E-1 or got almost quick hammered D1 I am skeptical about this

particularly when you felt the need to call this out specifically earlier?

Python you wanted to generate content by jumping on wagons, didn't you? Let's do this.

VOTE: black

NOTE: DO NOT HAMMER BLACK OR YOU WILL BE POLICY LIMMED

like this does not give me the impression you think a quick hammer would necessarily be auto elimmed the next day

[Dannflor]

dragon can you go into detail on your Afrayed read

[Dannflor]

hi sorry for dropping off, i had a really busy day at work yesterday and went to sleep early

I have some thoughts on this game ill share today

[Dannflor]

I agree comet is townie

[Dannflor]

Do you have a read on Dragon, Timmer?

[Dannflor]

Dragon

That is not helpful if you are town

Do you have a solve

I feel like you just threw your hands in the air when i repped in

[Dannflor]

I would so so much rather you go out pushing a solve you believe in if you’re town than doing whatever this is

This just accomplishes giving scum a free walk through today if you’re town

[Dannflor]

also like

I have no idea why you think it’s suddenly going to be easier to solve the game tomorrow if you die here than it is today

[Dannflor]

:/

i thought it was dragon/knott

[Dannflor]

i mean this is why you just shouldn't do it as town ever

[Dannflor]

i thought it was dragon/knott

Are you going to answer 945 NOW, at least?

I would rather not

[Dannflor]

I have an immediate inclination but I think it's best to not give mafia information on how to arrange their F5

[Dannflor]

I'm sorry this happened and I'm sorry I didn't get a chance to engage with you more assuming you're town here

if I'm still alive tomorrow i will dedicate some time to this and try my best to avenge you

[Dannflor]

awesome

[Dannflor]

i think any investigatives like cop or tracker should claim today and out their results

[Dannflor]

mmm maybe not tracker

[Dannflor]

protective should probably remain unclaimed unless you are a jk who thinks you have a guilty

I doubt scum risked no killing here

[Dannflor]

we must be careful with votes today

It’s not as bad as an f5 in that a miselim doesn’t necessarily immediately lose and quick hammers probably won’t happen but we are still very close to losing so like

please no votes until you’re very sure and everyone has said their piece

[Dannflor]

I doubt scum risked no killing here

How come?

I guess it might depend on which row or column we’re in but i would think the chance of an investigative or even masons still being alive would make no killing less optimal

[Dannflor]

Morning!

I'm in bed with a nasty fever, so... do I reveal who I kept?

I hope you feel better Timmer!

let’s wait for a potential Cc first

I’m not ccing btw

[Dannflor]

uhhh i guess that’s everyone checked in

[Dannflor]

probably you should out your target now timmer

Merlyn if you’re a cop you should just claim your results tbh

[Dannflor]

Does pigeon investigating python make sense

@people who were in the game before me

Pedit: lol

[Dannflor]

I wonder why scum!merlyn wouldn’t have just checked that

[Dannflor]

Why did you check Afrayed over a slot like Timmer, Merlyn?

[Dannflor]

Do i remember correctly that the merlyn slot was put to e-1 at some point d1

I’m running errands and on my phone or else i’d check for myself but if I’m rememmbering correctly that wagon might be worth checking out to rule out possible Merlyn teams

[Dannflor]

I’d like to know Timmer’s target as well

[Dannflor]

I think you're town fwiw - does there being 4 townie on VIP/Merlyn's slot fake hammer wagon make Merlyn look worse or better to you? Or no indication either way?

probably worse

It doesn’t necessarily mean merlyn is scum but it is very punishing for scum to lose a member d1 in this setup

I think the winrate is very very low for scum in newbies with d1 scum eliminations

so I’d expect a potential partner to be off a wagon like that

[Dannflor]

I’m out doing family stuff today but I’ll make time for this game tonight

[Dannflor]

I'm here now and rereading btw

[Dannflor]

I'm a little alarmed by the sudden consensus that merlyn is more likely to be lying, I'd kind of expect a little more waffling if she had a partner out there who planned a CC with her

I didn't originally think scum no-killing would be all that likely but considering today could be endgame if we elim wrong I guess I shouldn't discount it completely

[Dannflor]

If Timmer scum then Merlyn is cop and scumteam of Timmer/??? deliberately chose not to night kill.

If Merlyn scum then Timmer is indeed the jailkeeper who jailkept Merlyn and likely stopped her from killing (there is still a world though where scumteam Merlyn/??? chose not to night-kill).

i think what i want to do is go through and look at who timmer actually makes sense to be teamed with, if anyone - and then if there is anyone i can rule out as being teamed with timmer

likewise for merlyn

[Dannflor]

I'm not really getting much out of watching merlyn and timmer yell at each other

[Dannflor]

So way I see it there are two options here:

If Timmer scum then Merlyn is cop and scumteam of Timmer/??? deliberately chose not to night kill.

If Merlyn scum then Timmer is indeed the jailkeeper who jailkept Merlyn and likely stopped her from killing (there is still a world though where scumteam Merlyn/??? chose not to night-kill).

The question I suppose comes down to do you think it's more likely that scum deliberately no-killed to cast suspicion or do you think mafia was blocked from killing via Jailkeeper.

Deliberately chose not to nightkill and then revealed a roleclaim unprovoked that would be immediately contested if it were false.

I understand if you're town it might seem ridiculous from your position

but I'm not sure if it's *actually* that ridiculous considering your position coming into today

I guess I should also consider why scum!merlyn would think it's her best bet to counterclaim instead of just claiming vanilla

[Dannflor]

can i ask who everyone's guess for merlyn's partner is?

[Dannflor]

Currently my vote today will go to Merlyn.

Afrayed can you explain how you got here

I know you've been hard scum reading Timmer for quite a while and you acknowledged that but it's not clear to me what made you decide Merlyn was more likely to be lying

[Dannflor]

I mean if timmer is scum than afrayed is 100% town by virtue of merlyn's inno?

[Dannflor]

so actually afrayed/timmer cannot be a team

[Dannflor]

timmer can only be scum with comet or kittie

or me from an outside perspective

[Dannflor]

Hmmm... I could spend a lot of time shifting people around but I think this is roughly where my mind is right now. Obligatory this is early day 1 reads that are subject to change as the day develops.

Town

Python
Anen
Black <3
Dragon <3
Gimli
Knott
Kittie
Timmer

Scum

And as promised, VOTE: TimmerRC as he's bottom of the list.

I guess this is too early for sure to say it's unpartnered, you don't really go back to hard pushing Timmer after this early bit

but I would consider a bit unlikely to come from partners

[Dannflor]

was there a specific point you started town reading timmer, comet? I'm finding it difficult to track your read of him

[Dannflor]

ok I think that tracks

[Dannflor]

Funnily enough when I was browsing through Timmer scumpartners my first thought was "I think frankly I come out of this looking the most partnered."

eh I think surface level maybe but there are also posts like 87 that i think feel a bit hard to make as scum talking to a scum buddy?

it helps that I think individually you're probably the towniest slot in the game but I'd also expect a little more of a clear trajectory in your posting about your read on timmer if you were partnered. I find scum usually want to make it clear where they stand on their partner at all times, even if it's just "null"

[Dannflor]

I'm not capable of processing more than four things actively in my head at once so I'm just gonna write you off as town here Dann (you can thank Black for it).

Teams in my head...

Timmer/Kittie, Merlyn/Kittie, Merlyn/Knott.

Mathematically that makes Merlyn the better execute - unless I'm Monty Hall-ing myself here.

this is basically where I'm at

I'm trying to assess how worried I am about timmer/kittie being a thing

I wish I could just find something clearing and feel good about this but both isos are kind of sparse in mentions of each other

[Dannflor]

comet: #98 Yes I'm going to marinate on my thoughts a while we are only barely 24 hours into the game and 6 pages. I do have some gut feelings about some players but that's all they are at this moment.

I'm new, I don't have thought processes yet... I have gut feelings but those aren't based in any kind of fact, We have like 9 days to go before a decision really needs to be made.

Who are your gut feelings about?

like this is the type of post i see scum making to other scum a lot

pretty easy questions to build interactions that don't really get followed up on

i also get an uncomfortable vibe that kittie came in today pretty much having already decided merlyn was scummier than timmer and I don't really follow why that is

[Dannflor]

Does anyone else find it suspicious that both black and VIP replaced out, when it looked like they were being looked at a little too hard?

I find a kittie/merlyn team pretty unlikely

kittie has been shading VIP pretty much all game it looks like and it doesn't really look reciprocal in a distancing way

i also think the above quoted post is like... very weird to come from a scum buddy. I think that's not the sort of thing you draw attention to if your goal is to distance

more likely to be a townie who thinks they are on to something or scum trying to shade/discredit town imo

[Dannflor]

please for the love of god unvote comet

[Dannflor]

oh i didn't see new page

[Dannflor]

please don't put merlyn to e-1 yet

I'm not quite ready for that

[Dannflor]

I'm going to be honest I feel like this outburst is a little town indicative from Afrayed

I mean I guess unless he's panicking because he thinks his scum buddy merlyn is goin to be limmed and throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks

but then why not stay on comet

[Dannflor]

please for the love of god unvote comet

why?

i actually realized it's fine, I keep thinking it's an f5 not an f6

if it was an f5 and you as town voted town then scum would be able to quick hammer and end the game

[Dannflor]

not hammering btw

[Dannflor]

meh

I think occam's razor says that the no kill and timmer claiming jk is probably the true claim and the counter claim is probably scum

i also can't really imagine a team of timmer/kittie deciding that was their best play

it's much more easy for me to imagine a team with merlyn on it decided that their best bet to end game was a 50/50 counter claim

[Dannflor]

also in games of this size an all town wagon on a slot during D1 greatly increases the chances of that slot flipping red

I think I'm just not going to be able to convince myself it's a timmer/x team

[Dannflor]

I'm probably ready to hammer but I'll wait to see if comet has anything more they want to say

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

Only because if someone quickhammers before we've seen some useful content from everyone, we'll be in a horrible situation tomorrow.

I'll check the recent posts later and explain the sentence above, too, if needed.

this might not be helpful to anyone else but this kinda feels like a post made when you *know* the target is flipping town

like aneninen was already prepping for a town flip here

[Dannflor]

anyway i don't think i actually need to convince anyone here

comet, i think it's quite possible I'm overthinking with regards to afrayed

[Dannflor]

I do see what you're seeing with regards to Afrayed and my gut instinct being to town read the AtE might not be correct considering the gamestate

that being said I don't really want to delve into that world until tomorrow

[Dannflor]

VOTE: merlyn

I'm good

I'm sorry if this is wrong merlyn

[Dannflor]

kinda expected that tbh

[Dannflor]

i am inclined to go afrayed as the last scum here

I probably should not rule out merlyn/kittie but I'm really not used to seeing that sort of distancing in a newbie

[Dannflor]

this weekend has been terribly busy i apologize

[Dannflor]

the problem is scum in afrayed or kittie's position do benefit quite a lot from no killing especially given looking back i think it's pretty obvious who timmer was going to target?

[Dannflor]

im just gonna clear comet here on the basis that her path to end game is pretty simple and i don't think she expects to get jailed here

[Dannflor]

but I am town

scum did intentionally no kill

I think I can figure out who needed to do that to get to end game

my gut instinct still says afrayed but i'd like a little bit of time to be sure of that

[Dannflor]

I'm fine to die today if I can get sure of that and you guys follow through on that following my flip

this game should be very hard to lose if we can all agree on just like 1 town read here but it *is* loseable

[Dannflor]

but I am town

scum did intentionally no kill

I think I can figure out who needed to do that to get to end game

my gut instinct still says afrayed but i'd like a little bit of time to be sure of that

Why do you assume a no kill and not even consider the possibility that they targeted you but it failed because I protected you?

uhhhh because no one in their right mind would choose to kill me instead of the claimed jailkeeper? that would just be a game throwing move and it's not something I would ever consider here

[Dannflor]

the problem is scum in afrayed or kittie's position do benefit quite a lot from no killing especially given looking back i think it's pretty obvious who timmer was going to target?

I don't feel like I had come after you in any real way, how was it obvious?

i think taking a look at your reads list yesterday makes it pretty clear i was your pick for partner

[Dannflor]

Wheme, I'm not loving your hyperfocus on only one possible reality, here. And not removing your predecessor's vote isn't a good look.

However, if dann were town I feel like he'd be arguing and defending a bit more, so I'm inclined to agree that dann is the vote here.

i have literally just been busy my guy

[Dannflor]

I think Afrayed Star knew he was likely going to be the next elimination after Merlyn flipped red

and TimmerRC was basically the only player in the game that had expressed a town read on him

continuing on the current autopilot path and killed TimmerRC would have basically have just been admitting defeat

I think no killing and attempting to frame someone else was like... that slot's only path forward here and I would strongly recommend you jail Wheme/Afrayed if you kill me today

[Dannflor]

Afrayed Knott*

[Dannflor]

kittie can you be more specific about your suspicions surround comet

[Dannflor]

I'd actually like you all to take a good long look at Kittie

I think if I look at everyone here she is simply the slot that is most trying to maneuver herself into a winning endgame and 9/10 in my experience that kind of slot is just scum

Afrayed Knott and even Whemestar here feels more like an outrageous townie than anything else

and I think Kittie would have some reason to no kill if she suspected Afrayed Knott was going to get targeted by Timmer

If Comet and I assumed that then Afrayed Knott would have been basically cleared going into an F4. and both of us were hard town reading each other. I think Kittie might assume that scenario and realizes that she's at the bottom of the totem pole in an f4

and as such she's both the most likely person to no kill and basically the only person playing to end game. I don't really see wheme playing to end game here. Comet maybe but Comet has no real reason to end game when she could just breeze her way to a win

VOTE: kittie

[Dannflor]

I'd prefer to do kittie today and not have you guys have to decide between her and afrayed knott tomorrow

because I know afrayed knott did a lot of outrageous stuff that makes it easy to scum read him

but I think he's being brought to end game for a reason

[Dannflor]

in fact, if you guys are worried about the jail keeper WIFOM

we could have Timmer announce exactly who he is going to jail between me and Afrayed

that forces scum to either clear a slot for F3 or no kill again

[Dannflor]

I do think you should definitely confirm who you're targeting here before the day ends Timmer as it forces mafia to no-kill or automatically lose.

i think you should do this no matter who we elim today

[Dannflor]

i would appreciate it if you actually gave some thoughts on people's play here (namely kittie's and comet's) instead of just fear mongering about me being a good scum player

i think it's very clear im not end gaming at this point so this fear feels unfounded

[Dannflor]

why is kittie obv town?

[Dannflor]

From town pov you you have to be the lim here

i don't really agree

[Dannflor]

This post screams town and I’m sad they didn’t push you more off it Dann

can you be more specific what exactly screams town about it? i mean other than that you agree with it

i think i've been pretty clear that i think scum must have no killed in order to avoid being the go-to elimination in endgame

[Dannflor]

Idk unless there’s roleblocker who can just block the JK

this feels LAMIST wheme

[Dannflor]

claiming target prevents a situation where timmer targets kittie secretly

wheme!scum kills timmer, and then you enter a 3p limlo of kittie/wheme/comet with no one cleared

or it prevents a situation where timmer targets me secretly, kittie!scum kills timmer, and then you have a 3p limlo of me/kittie/comet with no one cleared

at the very least this way timmer stays alive

[Dannflor]

Idk what lamist means but claiming target does nothing

i mean it should be quite obvious there isn't a mafia role blocker at this point and you shouldn't have to be thinking that out loud in your posts? it feels like you want town points for considering that possibility

[Dannflor]

Almost like we could have went into an endgame right now if scum just night killed timmer and no one would have been cleared

do you think you as scum willingly go into an end game where you are always the top elimination by every other player in the game

[Dannflor]

like maybe im just confbiased but im pretty sure there was actually no other path to winning the game for your slot

[Dannflor]

im probably just overthinking things with kittie

[Dannflor]

Apparently you think it’s you because you thought you were the obvious jailkeeper target for some reason

everyone except for timmer scum read afrayed knott

if you kill timmer you lose

timmer scum read me and kittie

[Dannflor]

VOTE: whemestar

[Dannflor]

If I flip town are you self voting tomorrow

sure

[Dannflor]

I'll take the bet

[Dannflor]

you good to go now?

[Dannflor]

please vote me out tomorrow if whemestar does not flip scum, i will instant self-vote if that's not the case

[Dannflor]

are you good to self-vote and go today now whemestar?

[Dannflor]

i think you're zany enough to actually do it if you were town here wheme

[Dannflor]

and really believed i was maf

[Dannflor]

please vote me out tomorrow if whemestar does not flip scum, i will instant self-vote if that's not the case

you have no reason to not self vote now, you'll still win the game easily right whemestar?

[Dannflor]

You see I would id I had faith in town to actually vote you tomorrow

i don't believe you

[Dannflor]

you're trying to gotcha me not actually deduce anyone's alignment whemestar

[Dannflor]

fine

VOTE: dannflor

let's do me first

[Dannflor]

please for the love of god kill whemestar tomorrow

[Dannflor]

If it makes you feel any better comets posting today has been worst than kitties but I’m not giving too much thought to it because game just ends when you flip

this doesn't make any sense to say from a town pov

why are you posting this

[Dannflor]

Because it’s the truth

why are you saying comet's posting is bad if you believe my flip ends the game

[Dannflor]

like it feels like you're setting up to go comet tomorrow

[Dannflor]

lol

[Dannflor]

ok whatever ill leave now im just clogging up the thread

i think ive said everything i need to say about the game

[Dannflor]

ok

kill wheme next

i've said what i need to say

[Dannflor]

if the game doesn't end there i'm still 90% sure on comet i guess?

idk if she's scum here she deserves the win

[Dannflor]

good luck town

[Dannflor]

it was supposed to put pressure on whemestar / test his reaction

i forgot to unvote

[Dannflor]

sorry

[Dannflor]

gg wp

[Dannflor]

Yo Dann - I totally believe you about thinking Black was town when you hit the rep button

i actually didn't read the game at all before replacing in

[Dannflor]

definitely made a mistake asking merlyn to make the nk instead of me

and then also not unvoting myself towards the end there

but either way once the timmer was on it it was going to be extremely hard to end game no matter what

there was like a less than 0.1% chance of winning from that position

wp timmer! and thanks for modding ffery

[Dannflor]

sorry

[Dannflor]

sometimes i do read the game to make sure im replacing into what i think is a town slot but sometimes i dont care