Mini 2320: Smuggler's Port II [Endgame]

[Claptastik]

>Leash everyone in game to 2 products
>leave the third product for the Tomboy Daughter to ship
>Town individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to ship
>Port Authority individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to inspect
>Expected 2.5 town per product: (10 players total -2 for PRs -2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5
>Note that if scum are eliminated D1 we move straight to their guessing game

Scenario 1: The shipment is free of tea. 2 smugglers are off shipment amongst the other (expected) 6.5 players, and scum has a 1/3.5 chance of guessing the Tomboy Daughter if we mislim on D2 from amongst the expected 6.5.

Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.

I think this produces good expected results without risking revealing the TD in any way

Did you check the first game to see what they tried before developing this?

I looked but it's 17 players and 105 pages and I don't have time to read it.

[Claptastik]

But alternatively, with no plan they could potentially see tea being sent in a shipment they were not a part of and narrow things down that way instead

What if both smugglers ship the third item? Serious question, I'm still on my coffee and haven't thought this setup through, maybe I'm missing something, but if they both stay off the two items that are eligible for search, then tea on the shipment would give them a PR pool.

[Claptastik]

We are talking about 2 different plans here. In Kyouko's plan, the shipment with the tomboy daughter should not be searched

PA and TD know each other's identity but don't have communication. PA doesn't know which shipment TD is on.

[Claptastik]

I checked the setup and it's a lot different - like people voted on what to inspect, and the PA role could veto it, it was 5 days instead of 3 before scum won, had to catch 2/3 scum instead of 1/2. A lot was different and I did not read the game, just the setup.

Cool, thanks.

[Claptastik]

In my plan the TD ships wheat and the rest of us ship L/C and the PA inspects L/C. Publicly committing to this plan gives no additional info on who the TD or PA are beyond the actual mechanical clears

OK, I missed that.

I'm having difficulty wrapping my head around this. Are you super confident that the information generated does more good for merchants than for smugglers?

[Claptastik]

That makes sense, thanks.

BTW why is it called a Tomboy Daughter? What has that got to do with shipping and smuggling?

[Claptastik]

We can also do it where once we think we know who we want to kill today,

Do we:

Vote as usual? Risks hitting the TD, but possibility of hitting smuggler.

No eliminate?

A vanilla merchant takes the fall voluntarily to get us to three groups of three?

[Claptastik]

No elimination is a bad move, I feel. Smugglers win if both are alive on day 3.

They also win if we kill/expose the TD.

[Claptastik]

No elimination is a bad move, I feel. Smugglers win if both are alive on day 3.

They also win if we kill/expose the TD.

So do you think we would have better odds of winning by killing nobody today, and relying on the investigation results from tomorrow?

I don't know. That's why I'm asking ssbm, as she's better at setup analysis than I am.

[Claptastik]

You're saying the worry is that we might end up wagoning and elimming the TD D1, so is it better to not chance that D1?

Yes, that's the issue.

Considering this:

If at end of Day 3, there are at least 2 Smugglers alive, then Smugglers win.

I doubt that no-kill is a good idea, but I want to make sure it's being considered. ssbm asked mod if no-kill is allowed, so the thought may have crossed her mind as well.

[Claptastik]

VOTE: Claptastik

Feels like a low-effort policy vote.

He discussed no-kill...I have a reason to vote someone!

[Claptastik]

This ISO, woof.

Agreed, but to tell the truth, I don't think yours is much better.

[Claptastik]

There's a pretty noticeable difference in our ISOs in that this one isn't posting things that are meaningless or worse.

You have a vague anti-town charge that you don't follow up on, then a few one-liners on setup spec. IMO it's not a great read.

[Claptastik]

SirCakez going "uhhh i dont understand *votes kyouko*" is glaringly obviously anti-town when she's literally in the process of basically solving the game for us. If that's "vague" to you... jeez.

As it's his first post and he ends it with "lmao," it looks to me like an RVS vote.

[Claptastik]

I joined the atsi wagon to get some reactions

And what did you learn?

[Claptastik]

What problem are you seeing?

I explained two posts later, you've probably read it by now so I won't repeat it.

[Claptastik]

I meant regarding atsi specifically, but OK.

[Claptastik]

Methinks putting atsi in the dirt (the water?) and letting Kyouko take their place in the 3x3 is better because Kyouko Gets Shit Done.

Top of my head I kinda like this.

[Claptastik]

pedit: mechanically I've shot my shot and if we don't flip tea there are better scumhunters in the lobby than me

Thing is that I presume you're widely town read at this point, so if your group is investigated and shows tea, that reduces the smuggler pool to 2 instead of 3.

[Claptastik]

Thoughts on this

@Clap

?

111

[Claptastik]

NGL Kyouko fucked up. It would have been better to ask if any of the low activity slots wanted to claim as vanilla merchant.

[Claptastik]

NGL Kyouko fucked up. It would have been better to ask if any of the low activity slots wanted to claim as vanilla merchant.

Feel like 1 merchant out of like 6 claiming is fine.

Not the point.

[Claptastik]

Linen: HPE, atsi, Clap
Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao

Cakes you ship Copper.

I'm shipping Linen.

[Claptastik]

I think it's a stupid idea to lim Kyouko just because of some kinda mech strat, I think pretty much everyone here would agree that ssbm is pretty town. I'd rather elim someone who is scummy.

atsi and celebloki are pushing for Kyouko. Do you think they're being stupid, or scummy?

[Claptastik]

There's a pretty noticeable difference in our ISOs in that this one isn't posting things that are meaningless or worse.

You have a vague anti-town charge that you don't follow up on, then a few one-liners on setup spec. IMO it's not a great read.

SirCakez going "uhhh i dont understand *votes kyouko*" is glaringly obviously anti-town when she's literally in the process of basically solving the game for us. If that's "vague" to you... jeez.

I feel like my vote on kyouko was pretty obviously a joke and I don't like how you're twisting it into me voting her because she was solving mech

I feel like due to most of the discussion being mech related, stretches aren’t exactly scummy here since there isn’t much play to grasp in terms of standard play

If HPE came back and said

Yeah it's a stretch, but there isn't much to go on yet,

then I'd agree. But she didn't. She doubled down and said it's "glaringly obviously anti-town."

[Claptastik]

In my heart I want to vote for scum rather than go straight to the mechanical approach. But, logically, the numbers don't add up. 10 players. 6 to lim. Scum can't benefit from busing. So, to hit scum, we need 6 of 8 town to agree. That's not going to happen. Whoever we lim today, they're going to be town, so it makes sense to go with the plan.

Since we're using the mechanical approach, additional time talking today is more beneficial to scum than town.

VOTE: Kyouko

Here's the shipping plan. Variation from this is a scum claim. I'm shipping Linen.

Linen: HPE, atsi, Clap
Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao

[Claptastik]

Only Hu hasn't confirmed what they are shipping, Cakez also said 2 things, but I assume he knows he should do Copper.

Still 3 votes to go, but yeah, we should have everyone confirm that they're on board before we hammer.

[Claptastik]

Hu Tao, please confirm that you're shipping wheat tonight. Anything else is a scum claim.

[Claptastik]

D2 could move quickly or take a lot of time. Depends on the night results.

[Claptastik]

I still don't think we should flip Kyouko

Why not?

Do you disagree on my assessment on the math of flipping scum? Do you really think that 6 of 8 town are going to come together and lim a smuggler?

[Claptastik]

How to read the last two posts:

We should lim Hu... but I'm not going to be the one to cast the first vote.

Scummy af.

[Claptastik]

there is no reason for anyone of either alignment to doubt that Kyouko's plan, even the PRIOR one, are extremely mechanically sound and NEED to be tampered with if scum wants to have a decent chance at victory.

So why aren't you voting kyouko?

[Claptastik]

V/LA until Tuesday afternoon or so.

[Claptastik]

If all goes well with the gambit she doesn't get voted up and finds a way to weasel a small but fatal change in the plan that gives scum a better chance at winning come D2.

I don't understand what you think they're going to weasel out of on D2.

Losing. This one has alot of faith in the mechanics of the plan if that wasn't made obvious by it repeating like a broken record the importance of it and how scum will want to interfere.

If you had faith in the plan you'd be voting Kyouko.

[Claptastik]

Mod error, I shipped linen as well, just double checked my PM.

[Claptastik]

I'm shipping Copper unless someone tells me differently.

[Claptastik]

VOTE: atsi

[Claptastik]

^ Should be obvious but in case it isn't, atsi didn't ship as they said they would, which is a scum claim.

[Claptastik]

So basically this setup is mechanically broken, is that right? We didn't have to scum hunt. Yet, scum still have a random chance to win. Thanks to Fakegod for running it, no disrespect, but it was kinda a waste of time.

[Claptastik]

Good luck!

[Claptastik]

This is like Shot in the Dark on Survivor.