Mafia 87 - New Age Mafia - Game Over!

[Rhinox]

Thanks OGML! glad to be here.

Everyone else, I'm just starting to read the thread now. It might take me a little while to catch up, but I should have the whole thread read by sometime tomorrow.

A little about my mafia experience, for those I haven't played with yet, I've been playing on the site for 6 or 7 months, and only had a limited experience with mafia on *some* site I can't remember, about 10 years ago. I started out only playing in 1 game at a time, which explains my smaller number of games played, but recently have decided I can handle more games at a time (this game makes me alive in 4). I don't usually get upset or emotional, but I do have a tendancy to occasionally make long posts that some people don't like. If my posts start getting to long, give me a "tl;dr" and I'll get the point. I've also never once been prodded, let alone replaced, so take some comfort in knowing that I'm an active player, at least. Also, all of my previous games have either been mini's or newbies, so if there are any tips or anything different I should expect about a larger game, I'm always open for learning. Like a sponge.

If there are any pressing matters I should address, regarding my predecessor, or any other questions you guys want me to answer, ask and I'll answer. Otherwise, I probably won't post until I'm finished reading, or if my read is taking longer than I expected.

I'm going to obligatory

unvote

. I don't know who or even if zaz was voting for anyone, but since I have replaced in, if and when I'm voting for someone, it will be based on my justification, and not zaz's.

[Rhinox]

Mod: Please prod Rhinox

/in before prod

No need. I had a RL issue pop up unexpectedly that prevented me from finishing my read of the thread. I have about 8 pages left to go. I have been reading the current discussion as well... I wanted to finish reading the thread before claiming to see why mass claiming right now is so important.

[Rhinox]

aaaah... I wanna claim, but something is bugging me... screw it.. part of this game is taking chances, and I'm about to take a big one.

<cliffhanger, until the end of the post>

Alright, alright, easy on the pitchforks. I kinda messed up. I prepared two posts at work in notepad, and meant to email them to myself to finish them up at home tonight, but I forgot to do that. Bear with me as I'm re-typing up what took me a while to prepare earlier.

First part, I had some formalities. Those can be belayed for now, as the hour is a bit late for formalities.

I went on to a general feeling on all living players...

Tarhalindur/Doomcow: I really want to not believe Tar, but I can't find a reason to disprove his claim. After finishing up my read, I went back through DC's posts searching for any sort of breadcrumb, and found it quite odd that DC didn't mention Tom Mason even once after he investigated him. DC even did a couple analysis/summary posts, and not once didn't think to mention Tom even once. This doesn't prove anything, but doesn't do anything to support Tar's claim either. Of course, the missing kill from last night basically confirms tar's claim that he self-protected last night to save himself from a mafia kill IMO, since I have "knowledge". More info on that, keep reading (yes, I'm being a bastard to make sure you all read my post )

However, all the setup speculating Tar has done makes me nervous. The only Meta I have on Tar, he replaced in, did some setup speculating, made a fake claim I wouldn't have expected scum to make, and was indeed scum. The only way Tar can be mafia, however, is if he convinced his team not to kill last night to "prove" his one shot doc role. I'm doubting that, although I have a thing for conspiracies, and I'm still thinking Tar is town like he says.

Tom Mason: If Tar is town, then Tom Mason is town, or GF. Based on the roles in this game, GF seems to only further unbalance the game in the scums favor, so I'm pretty confident in saying Tom Mason=town, despite a couple posts from him that I didn't like. I won't go into that now though because it wouldn't serve any purpose.

Vi: leaning scum for meta reasons only. When Vi is town, hell hath no fury like Vi's wrath, when Vi is scum hunting. I didn't see that type of play in my read, so either Vi is playing more conservative (legit possibility), or Vi is having trouble fabricating cases with the same intensity as when actually scum hunting.

Jazz/huntress: mostly unsure... I suspect jass more than huntress for the hammer jazz through. It was for a very shotty reason, and quite suspect considering the deadline was just extended. The only thing I have against huntress is that she is dead set on the idea that Tar and Tom are both scum, and Jazz is town.

Darox:

DIE SCUM

I mean, leaning heavy scum due to completely non-existant scum hunting since replacing in, while doing things like that vote pattern analysis, which ironically wasn't so much an analysis as orginization of information we all have readily available. Seriously, look at his posts in isolation. It becomes quite obvious then. He hasn't given a single opinion on anybody. NOT 1! Here, this is the post where he's getting serious:

Right. Right? RIGHT.

Let's get down to business.

Huntress, could you please provide what you believe to be a summary of the state of the day and the players in general?

Zaizer, you too.

As for the state of today, I think we are in conditional LyLo. There still appears to be two killing abilities in play, so the potential for (cross kills/successful vigging) still exists, as well as of course any successful blocking, but any wrong turn of events easily screws us over, so for all intents and purposes it should be treated as lylo.

All he did was ask for vague opinions from Zaz and huntress, and posted a paragraph of IIoA, which I'm suprised hasn't been pointed out by Tar yet. Then we have that Vote analysis, which although I'm sure must have taken awhile, doesn't actually say anything at all. It reaks to me of trying to appear to be doing something pro-town, but in reality is doing absolutely nothing.

Darox, do you have any conclusions to be drawn from your vote "analysis", or was it just an attempt to look pro-town without actually saying anything?

Aside from that, he's promised big posts and comments many times, but has given none, and has agreed with Tar about mass claiming, and claimed vanilla. Darox has not done a single thing I would consider scum hunting.

Caboose needs a closer look into, but a quick browse tells me that he seemed to be acting pro-town, but nothing he did would have made me comfortable in calling him town. Scum try to look pro-town, so he was either playing well as scum, or appropriately as town. However, I can't look at anything caboose said and say to myself, caboose wouldn't have said that unless he was actually town.

vote: Darox

Now for the part everyone's been waiting for...

I am a vig

Here's Zazie's targets:

N0 - Xtoxm
N1 - strife220
N2 - Percy II
N3 - iamausername

As I'm not zaz, I can't give any insight as to why zaz made the choices she did, other than I would have policy vigged Xtorm myself

Obviously, since I know zaz made the only kill last night, I know that the mafia either decided not to kill last night (unlikely), or the kill was blocked somehow (a la tar's one-shot self-doc).

I'm not sure of a typical setup for a large game like this, which was why I was asking for anything I should know about large games when I replaced in. With my role knowledge, I've been reading this entire time under the assumption that 2 mafia families is all but impossible given the kills, and an sk is only possible if they haven't been killing every night. Therefore, I consider it a safe assumption that the only scum remaining are from 1 mafia family, and there are only 2 or 3 scum. I've been thinking 3 scum remainging made sense, but Tar's last post is convincing me that 2 might make more sense. If I believe Tar, that means tom is also town. That means either 2 or 3 of Vi, Jazz, huntress, and Darox are scum. Darox makes the most sense for the reasons I've stated, and I'd believe that any of the other 3 could be the last scum.

Now, if Tar is telling the truth, he has another night action left. I'm trying to work out what to do, and my opinion changes based on whether or not we're currentlt 5-2 or 4-3. If we're 4-3 and we mislynch today, I'm vigging and hoping that tar can block the mafia nk Its a crapshoot, but the only option. If we're 4-3 and we lynch scum, then I have a tough decision to make, since vigging incorrectly puts the town in an unwinable situation. If we're 5-2 and we mislynch, its the same as if we're 4-3 and we lynch scum. If we're 5-2 and we lynch scum, I might as well vig because even if I miss, it becomes 2-1, and if I don't vig, it becomes 3-1 which is pretty much a no lynch to get it down to 2-1 anyways.

So basically, I'm going to be nked tonight, unless ballsy scum are going to give me 2 more chances to vig someone instead of just 1 more chance on my way out. scum don't have a rb, or else tar would either be dead now, or there would have been a mafia kill last night and tar would have been rbed. Basically, lynching me would be a stupid idea today because of this. If Darox is not lynched today, I'm probably vigging him. So, Darox, if you have anything you want to say to change my mind, you have just over 24 hours to convince me. I'm not really interested in hearing what anyone else has to say about it, since at least 1/3 of the 6 of you are scum. I'm comfortable saying this because it also gives us a chance to prove a role or 2. I.E. if tar doesn't think Darox is scum, then he could use his RB ability to prevent the kill. I'll still have to die because I'm a big threat to the mafia. Therefore, if I'm dead tomorrow, and Darox doesn't die, then Tar's role is confirmed and by extension, Tom. Unfortunaltely, crazy WIFOM will undoubtably ensue if Tar lets me kill Darox and Darox ends up being town, if that doesn't end the game.

Basically, to summarize, scum have to kill me. I'm planning on killing Darox tonight, and I'm giving a player I think to be town, Tar, a chance to think about Darox and decide to let me vig him, or to block my kill and prove his role when I'm dead tomorrow and Darox lives.

What was bothering me at the beginning of the post is that mafia targetting Tar last night doesn't make any sense. Killing Tar would have basically confirmed Tom as town. But the scum knew tar had a doc ability and could self protect, so did tar just out wifom the mafia, or is Tar the mafia...

[Rhinox]

yeah, I forgot to mention this part (it was in the post I prepared at work).

Even if you think I'm sk, the mafia will still try to eliminate the sk. I'm still nk bait. I've already said who I'm vigging (you), so either, convince me you're not scum, or convince Tar to prevent me from killing you.

You're counterpoint is nothing but WIFOM, so nice try. just further supports that you're probably scum, if you were able to predict I was going to claim vig, and already have a counterpoint prepared. Tell me, is that not something Zaz would say to hide her role? It was actually a perfect thing to say.

Either way, I'm dead tomorrow through nk, and tar has a chance to confirm himself and Tom if he doesn't think you're scum. Its still dumb to lynch me today.

[Rhinox]

/in before hammer

I wasn't expecting to actually convince everyone to lynch darox. It makes me wonder if votes are flying on Darox now becase I was convincing, or because scums know something I don't about Darox. But it gives me a chance for a brilliant plan...

If Darox is town, I'm vigging... someone. Since I'm afraid there are 3 scum remaining, I feel a mislynch today means the only chance of winning is if I vig correctly and Tar blocks the nk. Alternatively, if Tar so strongly feels there are only 2 scum remaining, and doesn't trust me to correctly vig scum tonight, he could block me. I will say, I was only strongly sure that Darox was scum, and would not have hesitated to vig him. The others, I'm not as confident, but I'm pretty sure I know who I would vig if darox is town... Tar, weigh my lack of confidence into your decision.

bolding to make sure this is seen. If Darox is scum, I'm vigging Tar. If Tar is telling the truth, he should block me, and confirm his role and Tom as well. If Tar dies, he was either lying, or killed by the mafia, which will leave tom confirmed for tomorrow, and me (the vig, or pro-town sk if you still doubt I'm vig by then) alive for tomorrow. Even if I am SK, this will prove tar's and tom's innocence. The only hole in this case is if Tar is scum, and mafia has a RB. Which would mean that Tar convinced the mafia not to kill last night. If this is true, then the mafia didn't RB zaz or vi last night, since zaz made the kill, and tar was convinced vi was the vig. The mafia would then be able to RB me, leave Tom and Tar alive, and kill me and make us think Tar and Tom are confirmed. This scenario i feel is unlikely, but brilliant if it is true.

I still feel the mafia will have no choice but to nk me, which if this plan works, will leave Tar and Tom confirmed IMO tomorrow, barring the unlikely scenario I mentioned just above. Also, just repeating, I am only vigging Tar if Darox is scum. If Darox is town, I'm vigging whoever's left I feel is most likely scum, and hoping Tar can block the nk, if 3 scum remain. So, Tar, all caps just to make sure this is seen, BLOCK ME IF DAROX IS SCUM, DO WHAT YOU THINK IS BEST IF DAROX IS TOWN.

I'm doing this because of the group fears that Tar and Tom are lying, and because I would not be sure enough who to vig if darox is scum, knowing that if there are 3 scum left and I vig incorrectly, its game over even if Darox is scum. Since I'm expected to be the obv nk tonight anyways, might as well do something to confirm some town players, rather than just sit by and do nothing, and get killed.

Tar might think that this will be a waste of his RB ability, but 1) that concerns that he and tom are scum are too high from too many other players, and 2) confirming 2 players is IMO not a waste of any ability. If Darox is scum, we get the wiggle room needed to be able to do this, and confirming 2 town players might just turn this game around. Best case scenario, Darox is scum, Tar blocks me, I'm nked, tomorrow its either 3-2 LyLo, or 4-1. Alternatively, Dar is scum, And scum-Tar is vigged, and we have serious conversations about lynching tom... but the setup would be 4-1.

[Rhinox]

Don't get me wrong, it IS a brilliant plan, I'm all for safe play, and I wouldn't be upset if you carried out your plan; but it has no practical purpose.

Well, Jazz and huntress still think Tar and Tom are scum... so either 1 or both of them are either scum, or misguided townies. I'm still not sure about you, Vi, and Darox has given no opinions on anyone. Also, if Darox is scum, I might otherwise choose to not kill, being afraid that if I was wrong I would cost the town the game. Finally, as tar eluded to earlier, he may block me anyways in fear that I'm sk to prevent my kill. The only thing this plan takes away is Tar's chance of blocking the mafia kill, which IMO is worth confirming 2 town players.

However, I wasn't thinking about this:

The only problem with Rhinox's plan that I see is that Tarhalindur has already confirmed his role. Y'know, with that extra kill N2. Nobody has been able to answer this objection so far, and I've been saying this since D3.

I've been thinking more along the lines of the absence of a second N3 kill, and forgot all about the extra N2 kill.

*thinking*

You're right, under normal circumstances, Tar couldn't have made that kill if he is mafia, and sk-tar doesn't explain the absence of the mafia kill last night. What do you 'spose the odds are that the mafia has some sort of one-shot kill role. might explain the lack of scum power roles, unless they just haven't been found yet. Also means the unlikely scenario for how Tar can be scum is becoming even more unlikely though...

I need an hour at the gym to think about what I'm going to do now...

unvote

to prevent a hammer while I'm thinking... will revote in my next post. I wish Tar would be able to post before today ends.

[Rhinox]

I'm conflicted, but not about Darox... just about what I should do tonight, and what I think of Tar.

I guess sometimes you have to take chances, and this is one of those times.

Tar, ignore my last plan for tonight. I AM NOT VIGGING YOU. I'm willing to bet the farm, so to speak, that you are telling the truth.

As this is my last post I can make tonight, I'm going to hammer Darox, and I'll decide what to do based on the outcome. If I vig, it will be either Vi, Huntress, or Jazzmyn. I'll have more time to reread and decide when night falls, I guess. Tar can block me if he doesn't trust me I guess.

Wish me luck, and then a quick, painless death.

vote: Darox

[Rhinox]

Yeah Tar. I thought really hard about killing V*i, but in the end I decided against it and after analyzing both huntress and jazz, I decided to go with huntress. Jazz seemed more like townie to me, despite the questionable hammer.

Good job with the block. I'm guessing you saved my life. I'll be really interested hearing who you blocked. As long as your trusting me right now, I think we have a good shot at getting scum.

[Rhinox]

I want to wait to hear from Jazz and Vi before saying too much.

But what I do want to say is... Has anybody considered the possibility that the game started with a 5 player scum team, that I am actually a vig, and that its 3-2 lylo right now? Given that 3 scum have been plain ol goons, and we're pretty sure there's no scum RB, I think that seems possible, although I'm not a mod and this is my first large game, so I don't know whats considered balanced in large games. But haven't there been 4 player scum teams in minis? I only ask because everyone's been assuming that there is either 1 mafian remaining, or 1 mafia 1 sk... 2 mafian may still be possible.

1) Lynch Rhinox today and lynch Jazzmyn tomorrow - this removes the risk of losing if Rhinox is kill-immune SK, but we'd (or, more likely, you'd) MUST get the lynch right tomorrow. This plan is probably somewhat safer, but doesn't give us room for error tomorrow (if my block didn't cause the missing kill last night, we lose).

^If I'm a vig, and there are 2 mafians remaining, lynching me today = lose as well.

2) Lynch Jazzmyn today, lynch ???

(??? = Rhinox if Jazzmyn is scum)

tomorrow if necessary - this carries a somewhat larger risk of becoming a town loss (if my block didn't cause the kill last night and Rhinox is SK, then we have to hope that Rhinox accidentally crosskills). If we do this and Rhinox is Vig, Rhinox CANNOT fire tonight. Period. Losing the game due to an Azwolging vig is not my cup of tea.

^unless there are currently 2 scum remaining... If I'm going to be lynched if jazz is scum and its not game over, then basically its all on my shoulders to save the town by vigging the final scum tonight 50/50 between Vi and Tom, before I'm lynched tomorrow as a suspected sk. Getting it wrong would blow the game, but so would letting myself be lynched tomorrow.

[Rhinox]

I still think the above plan (lynch Jazzmyn, Rhinox vigs Vi if day continues, lynch Rhinox tomorrow if the game has not ended) is the optimal play, but I *might* just have not thought of a better plan.

EBWOP: lynch Jazzmyn, Rhinox kills Vi if game continues (or else*), lynch Rhinox tomorrow if game has not ended.

If Rhinox does NOT kill Vi and we don't lose overnight, we lynch Rhinox tomorrow, period.

Ok... this is what I was getting at... I agree 100%. If you think there is only 1 goon remaining, lynching zaz and vigging Vi will be a town win. Even if there are 2 goons remaining, we still win.

But I want you to confirm that you don't believe there would be 1 mafia goon (vi or jazz), and 1 mafia GF (Tom) remaining right now... I agree 2 goons = jazz and vi. But, if I'm planning on vigging Vi, I want to be confident that Tom != godfather. If Tom knows I'm vigging Vi, all he has to do is nk me for the scum win.

I'm not worried about what would happen is jazz is scum, and the remaining goon, because I know that will end the game. If jazz is scum, and I vig town-Vi, and thats the only nk, and the game comes tomorrow, then yes that means I should be lynched... but, that would be a pointless situation, because that means Tom would have to be scum and didn't submit a nk, when all he would have had to do is nk me to win.

knowing that I'm vig, if we go through with this plan to lynch jazz and vig Vi, I see no situation where there will be tomorrow... whether we win or lose is thus dependant on whether or not Tom is GF.

Only hiccup for me right now is who to vig if jazz is lynched town... does 1 more goon make sense, or does a GF make sense?

Tar, I also want to make sure we hear from Vi or jazz about you blocking her last night* before we do anything - unless you don't think it really matters too much? What do you think?

[Rhinox]

I think all will be solved when Jazz is lynched and revealed as the mafia GF.

Tom, wait a minute, how is jazz going to be a mafia GF? how do you know there IS a mafia GF, and how do you know its jazz??? This statement gets a WTF, please explain!

I think waiting for input from each of them is wasted time.

Read to the bottom of this post, before you get too anxious to end the day...

Vi, how is Tom mason confirmed town? How is Tar not confirmed town?

V*i

hehe... time to clear that up too, because this is getting out of hand...

Read to the bottom... but first...

Bottom line:
Rhinox is obvSK.
Jazzmyn is obvscum.
I endorse the existing plan to take care of this mess, as it will pit two confirmed Townies against the obvSK.

I'm ok with you thinking that, because if the plan is to lynch jaz, and jaz is the only scum, then by this time tomorrow, I'll be laughing at you for thinking I'm an sk when I'm not TWICE now And if Jaz-scum lynch doesn't end the game... then I'm vigging because you guys are all convinced that makes me sk, and I'm not going to let myself get mislynched for the loss.. I'd rather just vig wrong if I'm going to cost us the game, rather than being lynched for something I can't hope to even defend against.

*There WERE two kill attempts, but one was blocked. This very clearly points to Jazzmyn-scum.

not necessarily.. keep reading for the good stuff

*There WERE two kill attempts, but they were against the same person (Huntress). This guarantees Jazzmyn is not scum.

How is that a guarentee? you don't think jazz and I both could have targeted huntress?

*There WERE two kill attempts, but one of the targets was NK-immune. This also guarantees Jazzmyn is not scum. In addition,

again, how? jazz could have targetted me... if I'm nk immune, and I targetted huntress, hypothetically...

Rhinox has already claimed hitting Huntress, so if that's accurate the Mafia hit someone Town-side who was NK-immune. But that couldn't apply to anyone... except an NK-immune SK.

time for the good stuff

@Tar, and for others information/amusement...

suppose I was gambiting when I said I targetted huntress, because I thought tar was going to gambit to draw out the last scum - essentially, what if tar didn't block jaz, and I know this because I didn't target huntress? And I thought Tar would gambit to try to draw out scum by claiming he blocked someone else (Vi or jazz)? Would the strategy change any if we found out jazz wasn't blocked?

Or maybe I didn't, and I really did take out huntress, and this is a way for me to gambit now and test tar to see if he was being honest about who he blocked, or if he was gambitting to try to catch Jazz, or if he's just trying to justify a mislynch now by lying.

So tar, think carefully before answering. Gambits are off... who did you block last night?

[Rhinox]

I wasn't gambiting - I blocked Jazzmyn last night.

Then we have a big problem...

I targetted Vi last night. I threw the asterisk in my post about really wanting to vig Vi last night to try to tip you off without being too obvious, and give you a chance to run your gambit just in case... but today's conversation made me start wondering...

So if you are being honest, and you really blocked jazz, then someone else blocked me, and jazz isn't scum. Vi or Tom, or both, then is scum.

If you're lying, then maybe you are scum. maybe you have a partner, maybe you don't.

This just got a lot more complicated...

[Rhinox]

OK... here's the ONLY possibility...

There is a mafia blocker, Zaz and the mafia both targetted iaun making tar think he had a successful self doc... in reality, he was probably blocked.

After I replaced in and nailed darox as scum, the other mafia must have really been paranoid I was going to be able to nail him last night. He/she must also be banking on not being today's lynch, getting town lynched, being able to block me tonight, frame a nk on me tonight, and get me lynched as obvSK tomorrow.

Game over. Vi is scum

vote: Vi

[Rhinox]

EBWOP: if Vi is not scum, then Tom is probably scum.

I won't be able to vig him tonight without being blocked. Tar and zaz are both confirmed town now, imo, unless jazz is one of 2 scum remaining, and didn't submit the nk or the rb choice.

notice this comment by tom:

As for hearing from Vi or Jazz... What real insight could they provide?

Jazz will claim she is still a vanilla townie and it did not matter if she was roleblocked. She will try to oppose her lynch arguing to have me lynched in her place. The only thing Vi could say to impact the game would be that he is the mafia player and his role was blocked, or he could counter Rhinox's Vig claim now. But then the question would be -- why did he not counter the last day?

I think waiting for input from each of them is wasted time.

There's also the slip saying jazz will be revealed the mafia GF...

I think lynch Vi today, and then if necessary lynch tom tomorrow.

[Rhinox]

EBWOP again: sorry for all the posting, but I can't hold back the excitement of what seems like all but certain victory.

Clarifying why Tom has to be the lynch tomorrow if Vi is not scum...

It would be me, Tom, and either Tar or jazz in endgame. Tom will try to say I'm sk and should be lynched, but it would be prisoners dilemna if I'm sk... The usual town play is to no lynch and hope for a cross kill... unfortunately, since there is now a known mafia RB now, theres no way I could cross kill, and mafia Tom would win. Lynching me, same... mafia tom would win. Only chance for town in that situation is to lynch tom and hope that I really am I vig. Really, I am.

since I said this, if vi is town, tom might be tempted to nk me, and take his chances with a jazz/tom/tar last day. If that happens, my role will be proven vig. jazz and tar better then lynch tom and not let him get out of it.

seriously, this is game over. Its just going through the motions. Please someone try and argue otherwise.

[Rhinox]

Its really quite simple, Vi...

Either A) Tar is faking the JoaT claim and is instead a mafian with a 1-shot. Got lucky and targeted the same player zaz targeted (iaun) to "confirm" a doc protect, and said he blocked jazz to set up her lynch today... his big post today, he seemed to make sure to stress that he wasn't 100% sure that made jazz scum, since he "couldn't be sure me and the scum wouldn't have targeted the same player", basically setting us up for when jazz would be town.

The problem with A is, I targetted Vi, and Vi's not dead. That means vi's nk immune scum, or someone else blocked me (can't be Tar, unless someone else had a 1 shot, and Tar took credit for it). Either way, there would have to be 2 scum left (1 if tar is a RB). Tar wouldn't have to cover himself in the event jazz was town, because vi or Tom as a scum partner would be game over town loss by lynching Jazz town. Thus, if tar is not scum alone, then jazz is his scum partner.

Other interesting tidbit... if tar is lying, he couldn't have blocked me... Either Tar really thinks I'm vig and really trusted me to try to hit scum if he can RB, or he wouldn't have been able to RB anyways, so he would never have tried to claim he could today. but, if Tar IS a mafia RB, then maybe he did RB me and I caught him in a lie with my gambit... somehow, vi's not dead right now though...

Other than that, A is kinda my paranoid conspiracy theory... there's too many weird coincidences and stretch assumptions I would be forced to believe for this to be true.

B)Vi isn't dead b/c he's nk-immune, and there's no mafia RB... Simple, lynch Vi, game over. Town celebrates, and I get to rub in Vi's face how I'm again and still not an sk.

C)Vi's not dead because I was RBed... that means Tar is probably town, and jazz can't be scum unless there are 2 scum remaining. Vi (and Tom) both seemed too eager to just lynch jazz today, and seemed way too confident... Knowing that 1 of them would have to be a RB in this situation, the confidence stemmed from the fact that a) they assumed that I targetted huntress same as them, since I took credit for the kill initially, b) jazz was sort of condemned then by being blocked by Tar, and c) they are a RB, so I can be blocked tonight (again), they can kill someone (only 1 kill), and then I can be the scapegoat obvSK lynch tomorrow. Vi hasn't once considered the possibility that I am vig. Vi is in the best position to be the RB mafian in this situation. If its not Vi, then the only possibility left is that its Tom GF with a role blocking ability... ok, talk about an overpowered role... Vi HAS to be the scum

@tom: I'm having a hard time following the logic for still lynching jazz right now... Jazz can't be scum on her own, due to tar's blocking of her... either someone else had to make the mafia kill, or Tar and jazz are scum partners.

Unless, you're thinking that I really did kill huntress, and I'm playing some even crazier gambit by changing my story now to do what? maybe prevent a situation where me as sk would be lynched when the final mafian (jazz ) is town? Well, consider this. The * in Vi's name in the first post... I put it there intentionally... do you think I had the foresight to know how the day was going to play out? I don't see how I could have predicted this chain of events happening. What if Tar would have blocked me? Actually, since I targetted vi I assumed I was blocked by tar, and I thought tar might try to gambit to get something out of the scum player by claiming to have blocked jazz or Vi. There was another asterisk here in post 765:

Tar, I also want to make sure we hear from Vi or jazz about you blocking her last night* before we do anything - unless you don't think it really matters too much? What do you think?

The * was because I was still working under the assumption that Tar blocked me, and if tar was gambitting, it didn't make sense to end the day without hearing from the player he was working a gambit on. When both tom and Vi were threatening to vote jazz without discussion, I knew it was time to come out of the gambit:

@Tar, and for others information/amusement...

suppose I was gambiting when I said I targetted huntress, because I thought tar was going to gambit to draw out the last scum - essentially, what if tar didn't block jaz, and I know this because I didn't target huntress? And I thought Tar would gambit to try to draw out scum by claiming he blocked someone else (Vi or jazz)? Would the strategy change any if we found out jazz wasn't blocked?

Or maybe I didn't, and I really did take out huntress, and this is a way for me to gambit now and test tar to see if he was being honest about who he blocked, or if he was gambitting to try to catch Jazz, or if he's just trying to justify a mislynch now by lying.

So tar, think carefully before answering. Gambits are off... who did you block last night?

I was completely shocked when tar still said he blocked jazz... either he still thought I killed huntress and kept up his lie, or <see my last 5 posts where the conclusion is Vi=scum>

Tom... really?

My statements are made knowing 100% that if you lynch me, this game will be over and the scum will win.

^Another slip up, or just a scare tactic? your mislynch would only be game over scum win if you're town and there are 2 goons remaining.... you don't think there are two goons remaining... so how do you know 100% that your mislynch today would be game over? do you know there are 2 mafians remaining because you're one of them? so another WTF please explain?

Wallpost still forthcoming. I don't think it'll come out tonight though, stuff's going on.

yeah... I don't blame ya... I would have a hard time talking myself out of this one, too


New conclusion... If a vi-town lynch isn't game over today, the only way Tom can be scum is if he's an investigation immune GF with RB abilities, and Tar is a town JoaT. Highly unlikely that a mafia role would be that powerful, so a vi-town lynch proves tom is town. That also proves jazz is town, because jazz can't be scum on her own if tar is telling the truth. That means Tar would have to be scum RB, who RBed me last night but lied to try to get jazz mislynched today, and mafia had an extra 1 shot ability used. He would then block me tonight, and try to lynch me tomorrow for being an sk. As i've already explained, since a cross kill would be impossible, town has to chance that I'm actually a vig.

Town loses today with a vi-town lynch if there are 2 mafians remaining. between tar, tom, and jazz... Tar could only be scum with jazz due to explanation A above. Tom might be scum with jazz... but Tom wanted to kill jazz... jazz would have to be the rb, unless tom is a gf investigation immune RB... so unlikely tom would want to sacrifice the RB ability when a vig possible sk is still running around. So, Confident that Town only loses with a vi-town lynch today if Tar and jazz are scum partners...

Vi HAS to be scum... we have to lynch vi...

confirm vote: Vi
Locked on, and key thrown away.

[Rhinox]

The only way Town can lose today if we lynch Vi is if Jazzmyn is Mafia Roleblocker (not Tom Mason, Roleblocker Godfather is too damn overpowered for me to accept) and Rhinox is an SK without kill immunity. In this scenario, Jazzmyn blocks Rhinox and kills a townie, then town either lynches Jazzmyn tomorrow (handing the game to the SK) or gives the game to the Mafia overnight.

Damn it tar, stop giving me reasons to make me think you're lying. Tom, you too.

Tar, how can Jazz be a mafia RB if you blocked her last night? Even if she is, would you rather chance that I'm a vig and lynch zaz, or would you rather have a guarenteed loss and no lynch so jazz can win at night?

The other likely less-than-win outcome is Happily Ever After*. This occurs if Jazzmyn is Mafia Roleblocker (Tom Mason is ruled out because a Roleblocker Godfather is just too damn overpowered for me to accept) and Rhinox is UNK SK. Optimal play here is for the townie to vote no-lynch each day (as long as the townie votes No Lynch, no lynch can be achieved) and for Jazzmyn for block the SK and kill the SK (or no-kill) each night. As such, no resolution can be achieved and the game ends Happily Ever After.

* - Caveat: This depends on how OGML handles Happily Ever After. If it is treated as a loss for all factions, a win for a specific faction, or the game just continues until someone wins, the townie might decide to hand a faction the victory. I've sent a PM to OGML to double-check, but I'll ask the question here as well so the answer is public.

I see your concerns with that. If an SK is UNK, are they usually told? I wouldn't know, I've only been SK once, and wasn't told I was UNK, but I was lynched D1... Nothing in my role says I can't be nked, whether you believe I'm vig or sk. I believe I can be nked, and I don't think there is any way the town can know for sure if I'm an UNK, even if I am an sk.

I'll tell you this though. I know I am a vig, and I can be nk. If it comes to this potential HEA situation, scum group will nk me and win, i promise you that. On the other hand, town can chance that I am a vig, and lynch scum.

2 scenarios:

No lynch: town loss, or happily ever after.
Lynch scum player (pry jazz): town win, or town loss
Lynch me: Town loss regardless to jazz-scum

If happily ever after is a win for all, and I'm an sk, I have no reason to stick my neck out because I can chalk up a win with either a no lynch, or a lynch the scum option. Since I KNOW I'm town, I prefer lynch the scum, obv. Its the only way the town can outright win. The only thing I can gain by insisting on this if I'm SK is the extra bragging rights of winning outright. However, since sk's rarely win, why wouldn't I accept the draw and call it a night? I know its wifom, but I don't know what I can say to get you guys to believe me. There really isn't anything except to keep insisting.

Also consider this... Even if you don't believe I'm truely a vig, how will you know I'm UNK SK? I think its pretty clear that I or zaz have never been a nk target. zaz because she was inactive mostly... scum would want to keep her around for a mislynch. And last night, I know scum killed huntress because I targetted Vi.

I also think this is a moot point anyways, because I think lynching Vi will be game over. 3 goons + mafia RB seems balanced just right to me given the town roles. I think the only thing in the way of a town win right now is Tom or jazz throwing a hammer on Vi. I'll continue the conversation as long as necessary, but I've never been more confident in any situation yet on mafiascum.net... Vi is scum, he has to be. This lynch will end the game.

[Rhinox]

OK.. I've been stalking this thread like mad hoping to be the first 1 here when it opened.

I tried to kill Tar... obv, I failed.

Tom, you have to lynch Tar. He admitted to being scum, he's lied.

What I have I done since I replaced in? I've nailed 2 scum, and been 100% honest (well, there was my gambit, but it worked!). I swear on all that is holy that I am a vig.

Options:

No lynch: Tar will win. I can't kill him. He can kill me because I am a vig.
Lynch Tom: same result.
Lynch Me: Guarenteed Town loss, because Tar admitted to being scum.
Lynch Tar: Town wins.

The only chance you have is to lynch tar and cross your fingers that I'm still being 100% honest and I am a vig. I am. I know I am. Even if you don't believe me, who would you rather hand the game to if we're both SKs? Tar who's lied, or me who's been honest and completely pwned the scum since replacing in?

I swear I'm a vig. Its all I can do to try to convince you without quoting my role PM. Its also your only chance, because I can't kill Tar, and I know he can kill me.

You have to vote him. Please believe me.

VOTE: TAR FTW

CONFIRMED AND LOCKED ON! IT'S THE ONLY WAY, TOM

[Rhinox]

EBWOP:

Tom, you have to lynch Tar. He admitted to being scum, he's lied

about his role (JoaT) to deceive the town

.

fixed.

[Rhinox]

Oh, yes, for Tom Mason - your actual options:

No lynch: I kill you and win the endgame tie.
Lynch Tom: I win instantly, because I win the endgame tie.
Lynch Rhinox: I win instantly, because I win the endgame tie.
Lynch Tar:

Rhinox wins

or town wins when Rhinox is Vig

.

Your choice.

fixed

In any sense, Tar just made it easy. Only chance for a town win is lynch Tar.

[Rhinox]

and if we're both SK, why does tar win endgame tie and I lose an endgame tie? doesn't make sense?

thats because I'm vig...

[Rhinox]

There's no way in hell I have that in my role PM unless there's a non-Mafia role that I could tie with (either town bulletproof, a second Doc-type role, or another UNK SK).

CKD was a doc, albeit weak. He got killed for protecting mafia... how do you know he couldn't protect himself? Thus, you could have tied with CKD. (although, maybe a doc N0 who could self protect would protect himself... can't know for sure... CKD might not have protected himself for fear he was an insane doc or somthing that would end up getting himself killed)

Also, we know you're scum. How do we know you really have anything at all in your role PM that says anything about ties? How do we know you're not just manipulating?

If I won ties with the mafia, and I'm an UNK SK, why did I just spend the last two days ELIMINATING the mafia. My role PM says nothing about ties...

Maybe some of the dead townies are nk-immune (der hammer or jahudo)... I was a nk immune townie in another game, but I was told I was nked. Maybe a townie here wasn't told they were nk immune.

Maybe I'm an UNK vig... I'm not told so, but I s'pose that could be kept hidden... nothing in my role says I am UNK anything...


All that aside, Tom, here's what you have to consider. Tar claimed SK... He IS scum. Any situation that ends with a Tar win is a GUARANTEED town loss. Whether or not you believe I'm a vig, you have to admit there is at least a chance... even if you think its just a small one, that I'm actually a vig. Therefor, lynching Tar is the only way the town has any chance to win...

If you still think I'm sk, and you don't have a preference who wins between me and tar, then lynch Tar and and take the chance I'm telling the truth that I'm vig.

Actually, Lynch Tar and hand the town, you and myself included, the win. I AM A VIG. I don't know how to prove it, other than by saying I've acted nothing but completely pro-town since replacing in. I've eliminated the rest of the mafia, for frick's sake. Thats got to count for something. Tar's accusation that I win ties with the mafia, and I'm UNK makes no sense with me taking out the mafia.

[Rhinox]

1) I'd act surprised that you have the gall to claim that you're completely honest (which is a complete and utter LIE, considering that I'm damn sure you killed Huntress N5) if not for the fact that I was pretty sure you would try this tack today (my reckoning says that the line of reasoning increases your chances of winning significantly just by existing).

I missed this post... c'mon, I tried to kill vi, and you obviously killed huntress. how do you explain the intentional * I put in vi's name when I made my gambit post... to breadcrumb that I actually tried to kill vi of course. I wouldn't have tried that gambit if I didn't think you were town... thats my only mistake this game - thinking you were town.

For the record tar, if you wouldn't have claimed sk yesterday, I'd have still thought you were town today. You'd have had a better chance trying to convince Tom to lynch me on the grounds that I would have been the only remaining sk, since the only thing I had on either of you was that you'd have to be a mafia RB with a 1-shot, and tom would have had to be a mafia GF RB... you screwed yourself over by claiming.

Either way, its my word against yours, and my previous point still stands. Towns only chance of winning is to lynch you.

[Rhinox]

Final point to make... I don't know what else to say...

If you still think I'm an SK...
A town loss is a town loss, Tom... I'm not an sk, and I'd hate to lose the game because you thought tar was more deserving of a win over sk-me, and over the chance that I'm a vig.

If Tar and I are both sk's, your screwed either way. Town can't win. But you have to at least consider that I'm really a vig. If you don't lynch Tar, and the town loses, and I'm revealed vig, then the entire town gets to blame you for the town loss. If you lynch Tar, and i'm sk, then you let me win, but there was nothing you could have done to prevent a town loss.

Chance of winning (actually guarenteed win) by lynching Tar, sole responsibility for town loss by not lynching tar. That is your choice...

[Rhinox]

whew... thank god... Go TOM! GO TOWN! YAY! WOO HOO!!!

Vi: thanks for getting Tar to claim sk. Town would have been screwed without that and I'd have been lynched right now. Told ya I wasn't SK

Tom: thanks for givin me a chance. I really was afraid you were gonna no lynch, or vote for me.

Tar: We've yet to play a full game together, but your reputation definately precedes you. Right after I replaced in, I thought to myself that maybe you were an sk... but I quickly discarded that possibility due to all of the missing SK kills... I even had half a post typed up explaining why I thought so, but I deleted it because I wanted to first focus on finding scum, and people thought I was SK, so I didn't want to seem like I was deflecting suspicion elsewhere... It was much more believable that I was sk than you, and it was much more believable that you were town than sk... Up until the point you claimed, I still thought you were town. I was so excited and frantically trying to say anything to keep from getting lynched, that although I read Vi's post, it didn't click about one of the missing mafia kills were targetted at you... actually until just now haha.

To the rest of the town... I'm glad I was able to come in and do something good for the town. In some ways, this was the best I'd ever played, despite the short time in the game. I never placed a vote, or submitted a kill choice that wasn't on one of the 3 scum remaining when I replaced in... even if some of it was luck.

Vi, I don't see how you think your mafia team was screwed all game... you had all goons, but you also had that UNK godfather thing... And with Tar also UNK, that seems like a pretty good way to balance out the vig. On top of that, all the rest of the town "Power" roles got taken out pretty early. The tracker/2 grave diggers combo could have really messed with the town had all those roles survived longer. Town had no cop, and the doc got unlukily taken out N0...

Despite all the quick action after Darox was lynched scum, nobody asked me WHY I targetted Vi after I came clear on my gambit. Actually, it was because of this comment:

If Darox is scum and lynched today, then IF Rhinox is a Vig - which still seems too convenient IMO - the game will not end regardless of what he does tonight.

Vi seemed to know with too much certainty about the number of scum remaining in the game... I was still worried there were more scum remaining than the rest of the town was willing to admit. The next day, I was glad my kill was "blocked" because everybody else seemed 100% sure there was only one scum remaining in the game, and if not 1 scum, then I was scum sk as well. Until my gambit, I wasn't sure Vi was scum... Turns out my initial read on vi based on my meta from playing with him was correct though. Vi didn't attack in this game as scum, with the same intensity I've seen before when Vi is town.

Speaking of my gambit, although it ultimately worked, that was not the way I was expecting it to work at all. I really thought Tar was town and that he blocked me. I thought he knew he blocked me, but wanted me to admit to killing huntress so he could say he blocked either Vi or Jazz to get a reaction from them, and try to figure out which of the 2 were scum. I breadcrumbed who I really tried to kill with the *, as sort of a symbolic wink without making it too obvious that I was up to something. I could have always claimed that the * was an accidental typo if questioned about it before I was ready to reveal my gambit since the * is right next to the 'i' key. I thought Tar would say he blocked Jazz, because he had "thought" jazz was scum basically since he replaced in. However, instead of just saying "Jazz, I blocked you, explain this.", Tar made a large post going into detail even to the point of saying that didn't prove jazz was scum since the mafia might have also targetted huntress, before giving jazz the chance to respond. I thought it very strange for Tar to go into that much detail if he were gambiting, and when he gave jazz an out, that pretty much blew the gambit anyways. I didn't come out right away, because I still thought tar blocked me, and had he blocked me, I would have went along with the logic for lynching jazz because it seemed sound. Then Tom and Vi were basically itching to pile votes on jazz without further discussion, so I knew it was time to reveal my gambit just in case something screwy was going on. Turned out to be the right call, as it completely blew open the game.

I didn't just want to come out and openly admit to gambiting and say who I targetted, because it would have given Tar a chance to automatically agree with me, that he was gambitting as well, and were that the case, Jazz would have still been lynched. (I thought that tar would do that, otherwise why would he have had to first confirm that I killed huntress before saying who he blocked?) So instead I came up with the idea of "testing" tar by telling him that maybe I targetted somebody else, or maybe I really did kill huntress, so he would either have to guess, or just be honest. He stuck with blocking jazz, and then I revealed I targetted Vi and Vi wasn't dead.

Despite that, I still thought Tar was town, and if he blocked jazz, then somehow my kill was blocked as well. I didn't consider the possibility Vi was a GF, but the only possibilities were that Vi was a GF, or a RB, unless Tom was a GF+RB. Even though my assumptions were wrong, Tar's "innocent on Tom", and his "blocking of jazz" essentially meant the only player who could have prevented my kill was Vi. I thought that was going to end the game, really. I missed the twilight conversation, until I sent in my kill choice and stalked the thread until it was opened up for the day. Since Tar claimed sk, I knew I had to be very insistent that lynching Tar at least gave a chance for a town win, even if I couldn't convince Tom that I wasn't an sk. I wanted to post in the thread before Tom because I was really afraid he was just going to pop in and no lynch and let the endgame play out as it would.

And that, as they say, is that. Definately the most excited I ever got in a game yet, since I knew my gambit played a critical role in helping my side win. I also just want to say that I've only ever been mafia on this site once so far. It was my first game, a newbie (Vi was in it) and I think I play quite well as mafia. Since then, all my completed games but 1 have been town (the 1 was sk), and I'm greatful for that because I really sucked as town in the beginning, and I was horrid at finding scum. I think all this experience playing as town is really helping me out, and I'm getting to be much better playing as town.

If I can ask for a quick straw poll, how many reading the thread actually thought I was going to be a sk until my role was revealed at the end? How many thought I was truly a vig?

[Rhinox]

Meh, I suppose you're right there.

Now consider that one of my Goonies got hit N0, and the other two were replaced for the worse while Town got replacements like armlx, Huntress, you, and Tarhalindur.

You did kinda get a bit screwed with the replacements... especially puta puta. Darox would have got by if I wouldn't have replaced in, I think. You and Tar, although on different teams, had the skill advantage I think over Jazz and Huntress, and you both wanted to lynch jazz. Tom was agreeing with Tar, so jazz would have been lynched. How that would have affected the outcome, I have no idea.

It occurs to me that me thinking Rhinox was SK was what got Town to win, because I didn't target Rhinox under the premise that he was NK-immune. If he was taken out of D5, we would have had a four-person Kingmaker with three people against Jazzmyn. Tom Mason dies overnight, I win the tie with Tarhalindur.

^This. One of my secret plays from this game was that although either a vig or a killable SK should have been taken out first night after my claim in that situation as a major threat to the mafia, I knew that would be bad for the town. I wanted the town to believe I was a vig so I didn't get lynched, but I wanted the mafia to leave me alive on the basis that they would try to get me lynched as SK. I did that by insisting that I should and probably would be the nk... I guess that probably made you think even more that I was UNK. (kind of like when a player asks to be investigated, it makes you think they're a GF)

And the more I think about Tar's play, the more I either think it was completely brilliant or incredibly lucky. Things could have gone completely different with all the kill choices in the game that would have made it so the JoaT claim wouldn't be possible... such as not being able to claim a 1-shot if there wasn't an unexplained kill 1 night, but not any other night. Either brilliant or lucky, if he wouldn't have had to claim sk, he would be the first sk winner I've seen since signing up.

[Rhinox]

I believed your vig claim and did not think you were a SK. I also thought your gambit was brilliant. Very nicely done, indeed.

Thanks

It's funny that the vigilante's only good shot came on N0.

I know... after I replaced in and saw how zaz played, the first thing I thought was "OMG, how am I ever going to get people to believe I'm actually a vig if I have to claim..." I would have had Vi and Tar before their lynches, though, if they weren't UNK.