Mini 164: Rock Paper Scissors Mafia - Game Over

[Mr. Flay]

/confirm

So once a team is down to two players, they can no longer investigate, only kill or protect?
A1 and A2 target X. X dies.
A1 targets B1 and A2 targets B2. B1 and B2 die, right (assuming no protection)?
A1 targets Y and A2 targets Z, who is targeted for death by B1 & B2. Y is killed and Z is... double-killed, or protected?

[Mr. Flay]

It's not a game of mafia in the conventional sense, as there's no town, and we're only an uninformed majority until we get to the point where we're sure of who is on our side, then we act like silent mafia. The fact that it uses the same mechanisms as a mafia game doesn't make it so.

Vote: Coron

as he seems pretty gung-ho on killing Thrawn right off.

[Mr. Flay]

It seems more like a game of Ready Aim Fire than mafia, truth be told. I'm not entirely certain that lynches will be helpful, but night actions will be critical. Unfortunately we can neither confer with our teammates, or be sure our actions will have the intended effect.

[Mr. Flay]

It seems more like a game of Ready Aim Fire than mafia, truth be told. I'm not entirely certain that lynches will be helpful, but night actions will be critical. Unfortunately we can neither confer with our teammates, or be sure our actions will have the intended effect.

[Mr. Flay]

What good would that do, Dmi?

I think the information from investigations is going to be interesting because there's little point in lying about your mafia; if you do, your own teammates may target you for death.

Wait, CAN your own team kill you? Fuldu? If two of your own teammates target you (say, they think they're investigating/protecting you), and no one else does, do they kill you? That'd be a crappy way to go...

[Mr. Flay]

Yes, a team could kill their own team member.

Ow. Wow, okay.

Unvote: Coron

That makes lynches a little more useful, since at least you know what effect voting for someone will have. Targetting someone at night might just get them killed...

I'm pretty certain that thrawn is a safe vote, then. Maybe nationality-claiming is the best way to "protect" yourself in a bandwagon? (thanks, Dmi, for explaining that)

[Mr. Flay]

Duh.

Vote: Thrawn1020

[Mr. Flay]

If we play the game out at night, with no day, then I wouldn't mind. But this, as it is, seems too luck-based for me.

Well, night-time is going to be just as luck-based as the day, possibly moreso, for reasons I outlined above. I think we're gaining a lot more information today than I expected, although I'm not certain how much good it will do with the way night actions are set up. Going without a day seems even less like Mafia, however.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm not sure how it hurts us to lynch, you only have a ~25% chance to lynch your own team, versus 66-75% in a usual game when you're town.

Let's see: telling your nationality confirms your 'guilt' for three other players, and doesn't really confirm anything for your teammates. I think I agree with Narninian on this one. Revealing your mafia makes you a dead man, however, as 8 people now know you're the enemy and only 3 want to protect you. However lynching someone only draws the ire of 3 people, and narrows you down for the other 8. I think I'll continue to support lynching thrawn, thanks, in the hope of spotting the rest of the Paper mafia.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm not sure how it hurts us to lynch, you only have a ~25% chance to lynch your own team, versus 66-75% in a usual game when you're town.

Let's see: telling your nationality confirms your 'guilt' for three other players, and doesn't really confirm anything for your teammates. I think I agree with Narninian on this one. Revealing your mafia makes you a dead man, however, as 8 people now know you're the enemy and only 3 want to protect you. However lynching someone only draws the ire of 3 people, and narrows you down for the other 8. I think I'll continue to support lynching thrawn, thanks, in the hope of spotting the rest of the Paper mafia.

[Mr. Flay]

hmm I may consider changing to whoever is the driving force behind the thrawn bandwagon as well, if there is any. The leader could very well have information that Thrawn is NOT a member of his/her mafia - information we can only speculate on.

And if thrawn turns out to be *your* mafia, that'll be helpful...but if not, then the enemy of your enemy is your friend, right?

[Mr. Flay]

Vote: StrykkerVerde

- playing a hunch.

[Mr. Flay]

It's interesting. If we kill another Paper mafia today, then the two remaining can ONLY kill tomorrow night (per the mod questions at the beginning of the game), which will probably result in more deaths. However with two days of voting and posting information from them, we might be able to target them tonight, thus eliminating or nearly eliminating one mafia. How the game changes with only two teams, I have no idea...

I wouldn't be too quick with that Hunch there Flay, its not going to help our team to kill each other.

Okay, which continent are you from then?

[Mr. Flay]

As of this moment in time, I'm not interested in revealing my mafia, so I'll continue to be non-Paper.

Unvote, Vote: vikingfan

. We can't assume mafia would never vote for their teammate, but I'm pretty sure you are what Darklight said you were, i.e. Paper mafia.

The problem comes in Scissors and Rock figuring out what to do about the rampaging Paper loners if we do knock them down to two? They could kill two people...and the other teams could either help them, stop them, or ignore them, depending...that's the discussion I'm more interested in having before nightfall.

[Mr. Flay]

Then as many people as possible should target Narninian tonight; he's also Paper.

Are we ready to vote pwnz dead yet? It's been awfully quick...

[Mr. Flay]

Addendum, before you ask: Someone mentioned yesterday that taking the Paper mafia down to two would give them two kill attempts tonight. If we kill pwnz today and Narninian tonight, then that leaves one still in hiding. Shall we talk more?

That's why I'm not voting yet. It's easy for the third Paper to be on the voting list right now, since killing one of their own actually improves their efficiency. I'm going to guess it's vikingfan, but STD or StrykkerVerde are possible as well. Coron hasn't voted for a Paper yet, has he?

Are those of us alive willing/able to orchestrate two killings without screwing up? For example, if all the Scissors target one of the two remaining Paper after pwnz, and all of the Rocks target the other, and they can't protect themselves or each other.... In case Narninian votes his friend off to kill discussion, I'm going to propose Scissors->Narn, Rocks after...the other? We have to decide fast.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm really really thinking, based on vikingfan's first two posts today not resulting in a vote for the *confirmed* Paper pwnz, that he's the final one. Coron might be on the short list, but we can try someone else tomorrow if we're wrong...right?

I'm a little confused about how the mechanics will work when we get down to two teams, but until then, we're really just leaving ourselves open to sniping if we don't eliminate the two remaining Paper mafia tonight.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm really really thinking, based on vikingfan's first two posts today not resulting in a vote for the *confirmed* Paper pwnz, that he's the final one. Coron might be on the short list, but we can try someone else tomorrow if we're wrong...right?

I'm a little confused about how the mechanics will work when we get down to two teams, but until then, we're really just leaving ourselves open to sniping if we don't eliminate the two remaining Paper mafia tonight.

[Mr. Flay]

and to think... I saved your life night 1...

Well, if it makes you feel better, I had to 'target' you because I wasn't sure if you were on my team yet. Your vote Day One seemed calibrated to make us think you weren't Paper; some instinct said, "Well, if he's Paper, you'll have him dead to rights; if he's not, you might just save his skin from an attack (by Paper or someone else)".

Nothing personal, man. Just business. I probably won't vote until Monday just to make sure everyone gets to weigh in...

[Mr. Flay]

and to think... I saved your life night 1...

Well, if it makes you feel better, I had to 'target' you because I wasn't sure if you were on my team yet. Your vote Day One seemed calibrated to make us think you weren't Paper; some instinct said, "Well, if he's Paper, you'll have him dead to rights; if he's not, you might just save his skin from an attack (by Paper or someone else)".

Nothing personal, man. Just business. I probably won't vote until Monday just to make sure everyone gets to weigh in...

[Mr. Flay]

That pretty much cinches it for me that vikingfan is the 4th Paper mafia.

Scissors target Narninian, Rocks target vikingfan? Sounds like Rock loses Coron if vf is not lying, and whatever SV turns out to be (or maybe it'll be me at this point )

Vote: pwnz

[Mr. Flay]

What the everloving...? This game boggles me. I'm going to be very curious to see the night actions revealed at the end of this game. Mod, I need a confirmation that Paper's ONLY night action left is to kill, please?

My strategy has not changed.

Vote: vikingfan

because he's the Paper mafia who already has a vote. Darklight, what exactly do you want to need to confirm before tonight? The other two mafia are still at 3 apiece; anyone who reveals themselves shifts the balance of power.

[Mr. Flay]

We seem to have finally brought some strategy into this game at last.

StrykkerVerde, would you be willing to give your continent? I think I asked you this before...

[Mr. Flay]

I'm beginning to believe we're in a Mexican Standoff. Any mafia can, if it so chooses, eliminate/make irrelevant one other team tonight, thereby throwing the game to another.

However no one has a safe play, that I can see, that keeps themselves in the strongest position for tomorrow. Of course, imperfect play can create havoc on those sorts of projections... as we saw last night.

[Mr. Flay]

What screwed us over... is several people taking 'anti-paper' stances in the beginning of the game..

Well, what screwed (Paper) over was the fact that Paper was the first mafia to be lynched. With no night-kill that first night, it was the only thing shifting the balance of power.

As for the first paragraph, it's actually harder to (leave no one alive) than you think. And there are mechanisms in place to address that eventuality.

Is Paper willing to strike a Faustian bargain for an assured second place (maybe first, although I'm unclear what mechanisms Fuldu has in place for a 2 vs. 2 endgame)? I have a thought for minimizing damage to my mafia and Paper tonight... if you're willing to trust me and mine after bringing you to this point.

[Mr. Flay]

What screwed us over... is several people taking 'anti-paper' stances in the beginning of the game..

Well, what screwed (Paper) over was the fact that Paper was the first mafia to be lynched. With no night-kill that first night, it was the only thing shifting the balance of power.

As for the first paragraph, it's actually harder to (leave no one alive) than you think. And there are mechanisms in place to address that eventuality.

Is Paper willing to strike a Faustian bargain for an assured second place (maybe first, although I'm unclear what mechanisms Fuldu has in place for a 2 vs. 2 endgame)? I have a thought for minimizing damage to my mafia and Paper tonight... if you're willing to trust me and mine after bringing you to this point.

[Mr. Flay]

I'll have to reply with a question: Do either of the Papers know (definitively, not deduction) what team I'm on? If so, do either of you know the third person on my team? Just a yes/no will do, obviously you don't have to prove it right now.

One Rock and one Scissors is revealed right now. Two are hidden for each team; one of those folks is me. If I can know for certain that all three of my team will be identified w/o doubt, then I can guarantee at least second place for Paper (provided my teammates play along, of course - there's that trust thing), and I'll reveal/explain my course of action.

[Mr. Flay]

I should clarify my question for the Papers, since vikingfan obviously doesn't know what team I'm on, and if he knows the third person on my side, it does no good until we start communicating it...

I'm 80%+ sure I know what side DarkLight is on. However any confirmation on DL, SV, or STD from the Papers (a neutral party at this point, if you will) would clear a lot of questions up. Just the fact that you know one or more of those is knowledge gained, even without revealing their side yet.

Unvote: vikingfan

while we talk about parley.

[Mr. Flay]

Ack, posted while you were posting Narn. Are any of those known results on me?

[Mr. Flay]

Okay, here's my proposition. I'm Rock with Coron, and would like to hear from my 3rd teammate and Paper on an idea to eliminate Scissors. My allegiance should be pretty obvious from my refusal to vote for Mgm or Coron when I had the chance, but if someone can confirm it through investigation, that would be helpful. I think I'll keep my nationality secret for now.

Since it takes 5 to lynch, Scissors could end the day early by voting Locus Cosecant off themselves, although of course they'd be outing themselves by doing so now that I've said this. So if Narninian and vikingfan would unvote LC until we get this sorted out, that should freeze us in day.

With my revelation, we have five outed players and three hidden remaining, one of which is Rock. This is where it gets complicated.
(3rd Rock)
Flay (Rock)
Narninian (Paper)
Coron (Rock)
vikingfan (Paper)

Once night falls, Scissors will have two people left and thus only be able to kill. Paper can only kill; they are essentially Hit Men for this partnership.

Rock will be the only ones available to protect, therefore each of us needs to target one AND ONLY ONE person each

, without giving our choices away to Scissors.

The four who are outed need to compare and confirm who the remaining three are (not counting LC). Once that 5th blank is filled in,

each Rock on the list needs to target *either* the Paper OR the Rock immediately underneath them

(for the 3rd Rock, your choices would be vikingfan or back up to Coron). Paper can hit the two Scissors with impunity; I'll let you work out for yourselves how to order that. Scissors will try to kill two of those five, and one of several things will happen: Scissors could suceed in killing one or two people, and if they somehow caught two unprotected Rocks, then Paper would be ahead 2:1 tomorrow and win the endgame. More likely, they'll kill one or none, but either way tomorrow Scissors will be eliminated.

Obviously, the 3rd Rock's only choice is to protect me, because if we both targeted Narninian, he'd die instead of being defended. If Scissors should lock the day up before Paper can unvote to prevent a full reveal, then the plan will still work. With 5 in the alliance, someone had to be in that position, and since I proposed the idea and because I'm taking a risk by coming out, I figured it might as well be me.

Unfortunately my investigations have revealed 3 Paper and the dead Rock, Mgm. Based on Darklight's last few posts, he seems to believe that he and I are on even ground. However with Locus standing on three votes and Coron at none, I think that's wishful thinking. Therefore I'm about 80% sure he is Scissors, although he's welcome to correct me.

If the 3rd Rock will give their nationality, Coron and I (and perhaps the Paper) can confirm it.

Any questions? I'm writing this on my PDA in a business meeting so it's possible I've left something out.

[Mr. Flay]

Once that 5th blank is filled in,

each Rock on the list needs to target *either* the Paper OR the Rock immediately underneath them

(for the 3rd Rock, your choices would be vikingfan or back up to Coron).

Sorry, I rewrote this bit; it should say "

(for Coron, your choices would be vikingfan or back up to the 3rd Rock).

"

[Mr. Flay]

I gave Scissors a way to eliminate Paper yesterday. They didn't take it, so today I'm making a better offer, to Paper. It's not personal, just business. 8)

They are truly symmetrical offers, with the exception that LC already has votes. It's not my 'fault' that three of my investigations turned up Paper - I was willing to work with Scissors yesterday, but that fell through. Paper seems like a rational sort of criminal organization... besides, think of it as revenge for all those times Scissors cut Paper when you were kids!

[Mr. Flay]

Narninian, I agree that the current plan is flawed, but I don't see anything better- it will always be to the advantage of the side with protects to protect their own. On Even worse for you, as you're the team with the swing votes, it's up to you to fulfill the first half of any bargain and then hope the other team values keeping their word over winning. So...

The same goes for us-we could value winning over keeping our word as well and succeed quite well at it. If, for example, we committed to Scissors and then after lynching a Rock, we promptly offed two Scissors(there would be protection, but considering the Rocks would probably go after the Scissors as well), that would leave us sitting nicely with 2 rocks, 2 paper and 1 scissor. Then, of course, the game would be sitting where we are now, only 3 people smaller. Not that we'd commit this scenario, but just the possibility, I would hope, would be enough to keep the team we commit to to keep their word as their team would probably be shot if they recanted and we played out that scenario.

The line about "considering the Rocks would probably go after the Scissors as well" is probably irrelevant, since Scissors would have NO defensive position if they go down to two members, and thus no need for Rock to join in for a double-kill. On the contrary, if one of us targeted a Scissors at that point, we'd protect them from the Paper kill which is otherwise guaranteed! If you try a double-cross, remember that. And if I sense that you might, I'll call this off and go back to the Scissors-and-Rock eliminate Paper gambit we tried yesterday. But anyway...

Given the conflicting results, it makes sense, whichever side we commit to to lynch the questionable claim. With everyone either protecting or killing, cop investigations won't occur much anymore. Thus, it profits both Paper and the team we go with to lynch the questionable member. If lynched correctly, the other team will go out the window. If not, the other team is still doomed as then there will be 4 killing entities that will off that team quite nicely.

I like this concept better, since STD did what I expected and counter-claimed StrykkerVerde. Locus is out as Scissors, there's no point in lynching him to find that out. At this point I'm leaning toward voting STD, since he posted once before SV and didn't come out as Rock, and his counter-claim was a one-liner. Looking back through their posts, STD played the same game I did, entirely Anti-Paper the whole way through without revealing his allegiance. StrykkerVerde on the other hand had the *weird* quote about "don't kill me, I'm on your team, Flay!" and then said he lied. Ordinarily, Lynch All Liars would make my decision for me, but this game is different. If he *did* have a result that showed I was Rock as well, but couldn't say so without damning both of us for Scissors/Paper...

Coron returns Saturday, and may have an investigative result on either of the Asians. Narninian already said he knew of no Asians, I believe...

Code: Select all

***I am setting this in code brackets because it has NOTHING to do with vikingfan's plan.***
The thought occurs that if we DON'T guess-lynch the suspicious person, but instead go with LC, then Paper can target both of the claimants tonight. DL remains alive as a token Scissor, Rock still gets to protect three people, but Coron just refuses to protect either of the claimants and protects vikingfan instead. Scissors can be lynched tomorrow with impunity, so then we see who is left of Rock and Paper for an endgame. So I suppose it's in SV & STD's best interest to find a way to convince us you're Rock...

Now back to our show...

Here are my Qualms with the Plan Flay..., (or scissors flay aka Darklight140)

...

No motivation for flay to protect Narninian, meaning I'm pretty much garunteed to die, and (3rd rock - strykerverde if its the truth) is gonna be killed as well meaning:

Two questions:
1) Why do you assume 3rd Rock will die? Coron has a choice between protecting Paper or Rock, just as I do...
Assuming all 3 Rocks survive until night, I can spell it out a little more:

• 3rd Rock protects Flay.
  
• Flay protects
  either
  Narninian or Coron.
  
• Narninian kills
  either
  remaining Scissors.
  
• Coron protects
  either
  vikingfan or 3rd Rock, wrapping back around to the top of the list.
  
• vikingfan kills
  either
  remaining Scissors.

The choices that the Rocks get create confusion on who to target. Sorry if it was unclear in my initial post.

2) Why do you assume I'll protect Rock instead of you, Narn? I may prevent another kill, thus further humiliating Scissors as they die. If I swore to protect you tonight, then Scissors would just target Coron for certain, so I won't. I don't think you expect me to, and if Scissors-Flay (DL) tries that, he's lying. All I can offer you is that it's my plan originally, and we both benefit most when Scissors doesn't know who I am targeting.

The only other thing I have to offer you for allying with Rock is that Rock was the one to come up with the strategy, and Scissors has already shown they are less than wholy reliable. In the end, it's still all about trust...even your night actions.

[Mr. Flay]

Narninian, I agree that the current plan is flawed, but I don't see anything better- it will always be to the advantage of the side with protects to protect their own. On Even worse for you, as you're the team with the swing votes, it's up to you to fulfill the first half of any bargain and then hope the other team values keeping their word over winning. So...

The same goes for us-we could value winning over keeping our word as well and succeed quite well at it. If, for example, we committed to Scissors and then after lynching a Rock, we promptly offed two Scissors(there would be protection, but considering the Rocks would probably go after the Scissors as well), that would leave us sitting nicely with 2 rocks, 2 paper and 1 scissor. Then, of course, the game would be sitting where we are now, only 3 people smaller. Not that we'd commit this scenario, but just the possibility, I would hope, would be enough to keep the team we commit to to keep their word as their team would probably be shot if they recanted and we played out that scenario.

The line about "considering the Rocks would probably go after the Scissors as well" is probably irrelevant, since Scissors would have NO defensive position if they go down to two members, and thus no need for Rock to join in for a double-kill. On the contrary, if one of us targeted a Scissors at that point, we'd protect them from the Paper kill which is otherwise guaranteed! If you try a double-cross, remember that. And if I sense that you might, I'll call this off and go back to the Scissors-and-Rock eliminate Paper gambit we tried yesterday. But anyway...

Given the conflicting results, it makes sense, whichever side we commit to to lynch the questionable claim. With everyone either protecting or killing, cop investigations won't occur much anymore. Thus, it profits both Paper and the team we go with to lynch the questionable member. If lynched correctly, the other team will go out the window. If not, the other team is still doomed as then there will be 4 killing entities that will off that team quite nicely.

I like this concept better, since STD did what I expected and counter-claimed StrykkerVerde. Locus is out as Scissors, there's no point in lynching him to find that out. At this point I'm leaning toward voting STD, since he posted once before SV and didn't come out as Rock, and his counter-claim was a one-liner. Looking back through their posts, STD played the same game I did, entirely Anti-Paper the whole way through without revealing his allegiance. StrykkerVerde on the other hand had the *weird* quote about "don't kill me, I'm on your team, Flay!" and then said he lied. Ordinarily, Lynch All Liars would make my decision for me, but this game is different. If he *did* have a result that showed I was Rock as well, but couldn't say so without damning both of us for Scissors/Paper...

Coron returns Saturday, and may have an investigative result on either of the Asians. Narninian already said he knew of no Asians, I believe...

Code: Select all

***I am setting this in code brackets because it has NOTHING to do with vikingfan's plan.***
The thought occurs that if we DON'T guess-lynch the suspicious person, but instead go with LC, then Paper can target both of the claimants tonight. DL remains alive as a token Scissor, Rock still gets to protect three people, but Coron just refuses to protect either of the claimants and protects vikingfan instead. Scissors can be lynched tomorrow with impunity, so then we see who is left of Rock and Paper for an endgame. So I suppose it's in SV & STD's best interest to find a way to convince us you're Rock...

Now back to our show...

Here are my Qualms with the Plan Flay..., (or scissors flay aka Darklight140)

...

No motivation for flay to protect Narninian, meaning I'm pretty much garunteed to die, and (3rd rock - strykerverde if its the truth) is gonna be killed as well meaning:

Two questions:
1) Why do you assume 3rd Rock will die? Coron has a choice between protecting Paper or Rock, just as I do...
Assuming all 3 Rocks survive until night, I can spell it out a little more:

• 3rd Rock protects Flay.
  
• Flay protects
  either
  Narninian or Coron.
  
• Narninian kills
  either
  remaining Scissors.
  
• Coron protects
  either
  vikingfan or 3rd Rock, wrapping back around to the top of the list.
  
• vikingfan kills
  either
  remaining Scissors.

The choices that the Rocks get create confusion on who to target. Sorry if it was unclear in my initial post.

2) Why do you assume I'll protect Rock instead of you, Narn? I may prevent another kill, thus further humiliating Scissors as they die. If I swore to protect you tonight, then Scissors would just target Coron for certain, so I won't. I don't think you expect me to, and if Scissors-Flay (DL) tries that, he's lying. All I can offer you is that it's my plan originally, and we both benefit most when Scissors doesn't know who I am targeting.

The only other thing I have to offer you for allying with Rock is that Rock was the one to come up with the strategy, and Scissors has already shown they are less than wholy reliable. In the end, it's still all about trust...even your night actions.

[Mr. Flay]

It's going to depend a lot on whether we get an investigation result (from Coron) on one of the Asians. I'll get back to you after he speaks up this weekend, but I'm leaning toward guess-lynching STD still. SV's first post on this pager (#225) looks like Rock trying to figure things out, not Scissors trying to lie low, to me.

If we lynch wrong and leave 3 Scissors, some interesting things happen tonight and tomorrow, but I won't confuse the issue right now...

[Mr. Flay]

Even if Coron doesn't have a definitive answer, I think I have another way to verify who is lying. Not sure why I didn't think of it sooner *facepalm*

StrykkerVerde and Save The Dragons, will you each give all of your night actions, and the results? I'm particularly interested in last night, but having all of them to check against mine and Coron's will be helpful.

Obviously, for the real Rock, this is very much in your self-interest (and ours). It may yield nothing, but it's worth a shot.

[Mr. Flay]

Even if Coron doesn't have a definitive answer, I think I have another way to verify who is lying. Not sure why I didn't think of it sooner *facepalm*

StrykkerVerde and Save The Dragons, will you each give all of your night actions, and the results? I'm particularly interested in last night, but having all of them to check against mine and Coron's will be helpful.

Obviously, for the real Rock, this is very much in your self-interest (and ours). It may yield nothing, but it's worth a shot.

[Mr. Flay]

Day two-MGM: Found he was the South American Rock.

...

Day four-Narninian: Since it looks like Scissors and Rock both targeted him, he was protected.

Sorry STD, but you're the liar. I'm going to assume since you list four choices that you meant Night One, Night Two, etc. instead of Day...

Night Two I investigated MGM as well; because I got an investigation, that means that less than 50% of the Rock mafia investigated him; which means only one of us could. Otherwise, according to Fuldu's rules, we would have killed our own.

I believe that you targeted Narninian last night, mostly because SV got a protect result, and because that's what Scissors was "supposed" to do. Since Paper wouldn't have targeted their own with only kill options on the table, two Scissors must have.

I'll wait for Coron to be sure, but I'm convinced now who the Asian Rock mafia is:

StrykkerVerde,

who said he was on Day Two and I almost believed him!

[Mr. Flay]

Day two-MGM: Found he was the South American Rock.

...

Day four-Narninian: Since it looks like Scissors and Rock both targeted him, he was protected.

Sorry STD, but you're the liar. I'm going to assume since you list four choices that you meant Night One, Night Two, etc. instead of Day...

Night Two I investigated MGM as well; because I got an investigation, that means that less than 50% of the Rock mafia investigated him; which means only one of us could. Otherwise, according to Fuldu's rules, we would have killed our own.

I believe that you targeted Narninian last night, mostly because SV got a protect result, and because that's what Scissors was "supposed" to do. Since Paper wouldn't have targeted their own with only kill options on the table, two Scissors must have.

I'll wait for Coron to be sure, but I'm convinced now who the Asian Rock mafia is:

StrykkerVerde,

who said he was on Day Two and I almost believed him!

[Mr. Flay]

Narninian, are you good with vikingfan's plan of who kills whom?

I appreciate Paper's support on this. It's been a pleasure doing business with you...

Vote: Save the Dragons

, the big fat liar.

[Mr. Flay]

And of course, if Paper believe you, then there's no reason for Scissors to attack us, and therefore you are free to kill off both Paper. I appreciate your desire to pull something out of nothing here, but I don't think it'll work.

To Narninian and vikingfan: Remember that this entire day, Scissors has been *reacting* to what Rock has proposed rather than making their own plans, and imploring you to backstab or switch sides. Can you trust them? Rock has already outlined what we will do to help you to the extent of our abilities, and I'll vouch for my team giving you a fair chance. True, my responsibility is to make sure that as many of our delegates get home from this conference as possible; but if we can repay the trust Paper showed us, so much the better for both our "Families".

To recap for Rock:
SV, target me.
I'll target either Narn or Coron.
Coron, target either vikingfan or SV. No one should give *any* indication in thread which way they're going to go.

[Mr. Flay]

I say again,

What the everloving...?

Anyway. Pending word from Narninian, I'm willing to go out in a blaze of glory at this point. Lynch darklight, we all see if we can kill each other tonight, otherwise Fuldu continues to laugh at our incompetence.

[Mr. Flay]

Except firing blind is what led Paper to double-kill last night... I'm fine with either way, really. I just want to see the end at this point.

Vote: Darklight141

for still being alive...you're really Paper, aren't you??!??

[Mr. Flay]

/in for an orgy of blood...

SV, should we both survive until night, you take vikingfan, and I'll take whoever survives of Narninian and DL140.

Capiche?

[Mr. Flay]

Good point. I could VERY easily see this being a game where nobody wins because no one is alive at the end.

... As for the first paragraph, it's actually harder to do than you think. And there are mechanisms in place to address that eventuality.

Because Paper always beats Rock in RPS, so he changed the kill guidelines for the endgame.

Bah. I should have gone with my initial instinct once I started discovering Paper...

[Mr. Flay]

Good point. I could VERY easily see this being a game where nobody wins because no one is alive at the end.

... As for the first paragraph, it's actually harder to do than you think. And there are mechanisms in place to address that eventuality.

Because Paper always beats Rock in RPS, so he changed the kill guidelines for the endgame.

Bah. I should have gone with my initial instinct once I started discovering Paper...

[Mr. Flay]

I don't know. The fact that it didn't occur that way *except* in the endgame makes me feel funny about it. If Rock could have never night-killed Paper, that would be one thing... we could have at least had a chance to figure that out. But then, Mgm wouldn't have died to Scissors, so it would have been a very different game.

On a completely unrelated note, I'm highly amused that I was targeted for death Night One by two other Rocks.

[Mr. Flay]

I want to apologize if I sounded like I didn't enjoy the game in my earlier post-endgame comments; I

did

, most definitely. It was an interesting variation on a theme, and as you say, never quite went the way anyone expected...

I was merely

resigned

looking forward to an orgy of blood the final night, that's all.

Good game, to all, especially Paper who completely dodged the odds!

[Mr. Flay]

Well, in the case of Paper, you still would have had a loose cannon firing that night (only one of the two could have been lynched), and the balance of power didn't allow either Scissors or Rock to risk being targeted by that person.

With Scissors at 1, it was a no-brainer, or so I thought...

[Mr. Flay]

See, and if we hadn't HAD to lynch & kill, I'd have lobbied Paper for a draw after we lynched Scissors...

[Mr. Flay]

No, actually I *am* saying we agree to no-lynch and no-kill when we get to 2-2 (assuming we'd killed Scissors correctly). I'd forgotten that Fuldu said we couldn't avoid killing... I thought it would be the perfect way to end the conference, with a new alliance. 8)