Mini 164: Rock Paper Scissors Mafia - Game Over

[vikingfan]

/confirm! This game should be a lot of fun!

[vikingfan]

Oh, and also, what happens if 50% of one mafia choose to kill one of their own? DOes that still happen?

[vikingfan]

And I guess I have my answer. Should be one fun game!

(hopes this will go down as a mafia classic!)

[vikingfan]

Daytime will work as normal, and all standard mafia rules apply. Deadlines will be supplied at the discretion of the mod and half-majority will be necessary to lynch at that time.

So yes, there is lynching.

[vikingfan]

Not bad-all 12 players confirmed within 12 hours after the OP- a good sign for the health of the game. It's always cool when you have everybody active and participating in a game of this nature.

In your scenarios, I would assume it goes something like this:

In the first scenario, that is correct, I believe.

In the second, I would assume Z is protected. Now, if 2 different teams gang up on Z who is only single-protected, then I would assume Z dies, but I'll defer to Fuldu on that one.

I don't see where you're getting the assumption that once a team is only down to 2 players, it's investigating. Once you're down to 2, that means you're 50% of the team and as such, both you and your partner can make different selections because BOTH victims will die(pending doc protection of course). And as I read it, once you're the one and only member left of your mafia group, you HAVE to kill-cop or doc is not an option because you compose 100% of your team.

[vikingfan]

Good point. I could VERY easily see this being a game where nobody wins because no one is alive at the end.

On the other hand, doc protection will be huge. I would expect that if someone from one tribe protects someone being attacked by each of the other tribes, then that person will be killed. If the person is double-attacked and double-protected, the person would survive, right?

[vikingfan]

Oh, and are we allowed to do "Bah" posts or not?

[vikingfan]

To me, this IS a game of mafia-we are all mafia here, just of different branches. If you sign up for a game on mafiascum, it counts toward your record-though I personally don't care about my record and don't know what it is.

One wonders if lynching will really serve anybody's purpose as hardly anyone will know, at least today, whether they're killing somebody on their own side or not. Might it not be better to consider no lynching?
Plus, roleclaiming will not do much, as one quarter of this group will know who their comrade is, while the other 3/4 will want to kill him. Role claiming, IMO, does no good in this game.

Random vote Locus

, though I'm not sure if lynching serves everyone's purpose-there's a 1-in-3 chance of nailing your own team.

[vikingfan]

Ditto vote count?

As for the option to take, I like 1, though I could also buy 3. Role claiming, as I said before, will not help the one being bandwagoned at all-in fact, 2 out of 3 people will love the claim because it means it's not hurting them.

[vikingfan]

I like that last paragraph. Even if you lie, it still reveals information about yourself. Maybe play that way and no lynch day-by-day.

As for the first paragraph of the last post, if you do that, it pays off short-term, but that night, the member of the dead member's mafia will target you and so likely will the members of the OTHER mafia. So basically you're sacrificing yourself for an opposing mafia, which isn't a bad trade until you consider that the third mafia is cackling because they weren't damaged at all.

[vikingfan]

Might be wise to change the heading, Fuldu.

[vikingfan]

All right. In the interests of revealing as much as possible to the lazy peoples of the world:


If we assume that no member of a mafia knowingly votes a member of their mafia, assume StrykkerVerde is telling the truth about being in Mr. Flay's mafia, and assume that the known results are Dmi- Scissors, thrawn1020 - Paper, Mgm - Rock...

Here's the trick here. What if someone knowingly DOES vote for someone in their mafia specifically because of this tell? I know that if I was playing it this way, I wouldn't want such an obvious tell to reveal who I am. I've actually voted members of my own mafia in other games here on mafiascum and I assume others have done the same. Sometimes you want to do that to A)allow yourself the chance to kill members of other mafia, and B)remove suspicion from yourself in exactly the way you're looking at it.

Not that it's not a valid way to look at it-it is, but I don't think we can use this as our be-all and end-all.

As for voting, I'll go with

vote dmi

for now, though I can be persuaded in other directions.

[vikingfan]

Not really. Say you have predicted-correctly-all 3 papers. Even then, the 2 papers can still make 2 separate kills and make a big impact in the game. Even out the game and go from there.

[vikingfan]

BTW, mod, STD hasn't posted since last Wednesday, and pwnz since last Monday. It'd be nice to have everyone participating.

[vikingfan]

Right now, locus, we're all at 3 apiece, so we're all even. There's no particular reason to go after the paper mafia instead of any of the others.

BTW, that list that was provided-I can provide at least one name that does NOT correspond correctly with that list.

[vikingfan]

Correct, Darklight. Not that it isn't a good guide, we just shouldn't take it as gospel since both Narninian and I have posted that we have at least one name that is off from that list.

[vikingfan]

Of course, we all have that reason-two out of the three dead so far have benefited your team and everyone else's team.

[vikingfan]

Vote Pwnz

At this point in time, killing off the papers looks like the best route to follow, unless someone can convince me otherwise.

[vikingfan]

Actually, as I understand it, if someone is killed but they can get off a kill themselves. For example, say Narninian is targeted but gets off a choice to Locus. Then Locus would be dead and so would Narninian(assuming no doc choice).

[vikingfan]

assuming of course, that Narninian really is paper.

[vikingfan]

Why just based on my first two posts? Am I not allowed to change my mind before thinking it over?

ANd I don't see why I must automatically vote pwnz right off the bat-you didn't do it and neither did some other people-darklight didn't, for instance.

Personally, I could name a certain player of the Rock mafia or Scissors mafia, or paper mafia. But I'll leave well enough alone as everyone would be hopping mad at me for naming a member of their team.

[vikingfan]

Hello? (echo echo)

[vikingfan]

Actually, Coron is Rock mafia. I know that from my investigations. So targeting him would work well if we were going after Rock mafia.

[vikingfan]

I should probably mention that Locus is scissors as well. We can EASILY nail enough for one side to win-so I wouldn't recommend going after us so easily.

[vikingfan]

So I think I'll call the shot of going after scissors-sorry, Locus, but you're not going to win here either.

[vikingfan]

Doesn't matter-just because the paper will probably go down means that we can still take another tribe down with us.

[vikingfan]

True-that's the trouble of not being able to communicate outside the thread.

And in any case, people seemed pretty bent on voting paper so...

[vikingfan]

Interesting. Apparently not as many people are interested in killing paper as assumed.

So where do we go from here?

[vikingfan]

Consider what had to happen last night for no kills to happen:

One person from each tribe correctly guesses who the 2 papers go after and protect them. That's already 2 people who are not going with the plan.

Second, there are people who HAD to make a choice. Thus it stands to reason that SOME of the people voted to kill paper. However, it also stands to reason that only one person from the other tribe went after paper-so the paper was both targeted and protected-twice.

After considering all that, it looks like not as many people wanted to kill people as assumed.

[vikingfan]

I meant kill paper as assumed.

[vikingfan]

Vote Locus Cosecant

I might move it later, but for now. I'm tired of Locus' insistence that Paper is the way to go-news flash, Rock has EXACTLY as many players as you do. You might want to see about cutting them down first.

I can see making a deal-but I'm leaving my options open. I HIGHLY recommend no quick lynches. If you do, the other paper will go after the team of the last person to vote. So will the other team that didn't lynch, and presto, your team is toast.

[vikingfan]

Before I strike a deal, I want to know what teams Darklight and Mr. Flay are representing. It sounds like they're on opposite teams, but I'm not sure. Obviously, it makes sense to know as well so that we can target the opposite team.

And I am willing to hear a bargain.

[vikingfan]

Of my 4 nights, one was a failed kill(I won't reveal where for now), one was on DMI who has since died, and the other two I've reported-Locus and Coron.

I can give the continents for both if people would like, but I honestly don't know which sides Mr. Flay and Darklight are on, nor any of the 3 Mr. Flay mentions. I also don't know for certain the 3rd member of each tribe. Now, obviously, I have a good guess, but guessing is not the same as knowing.

[vikingfan]

If I gave you the continents of both Coron and Locus, would that help, Narn?

[vikingfan]

You're not getting away with that so easily, Locus.

Unvote Locus Cosecant

If Narninian is ready and willing, I'll take you up on your deal, Mr. Flay. Obviously, though, I need to know the identity of the 3rd Rock-otherwise there exists a good chance that I may nail that 3rd Rock by accident. Once I get that, Narninian and I can easily figure out which of us should target who.

[vikingfan]

Oh, and STD hasn't posted since March 19. Any chance we can get a prod?

[vikingfan]

And StrykkerVerde's claim matches up with Coron's nicely, and I assume with Mr. Flay as well, assuming DarkLight speaks the truth.

I think I know who I'm going to go with, but before I do, I want to know one thing: Is there anything either one of you can offer the paper that the other one can't?

[vikingfan]

Well, vikingfan, we seem to be able to offer you a team that doesn't have two claimed Asians, though we're short by a member. Go whichever one of you is really a scissor!

Even if we lose, this game will go down on the record as having had some funny moments, for me at least. Everything comes together... by falling apart.

Narninian, I agree that the current plan is flawed, but I don't see anything better- it will always be to the advantage of the side with protects to protect their own. On Even worse for you, as you're the team with the swing votes, it's up to you to fulfill the first half of any bargain and then hope the other team values keeping their word over winning. So...

The same goes for us-we could value winning over keeping our word as well and succeed quite well at it. If, for example, we committed to Scissors and then after lynching a Rock, we promptly offed two Scissors(there would be protection, but considering the Rocks would probably go after the Scissors as well), that would leave us sitting nicely with 2 rocks, 2 paper and 1 scissor. Then, of course, the game would be sitting where we are now, only 3 people smaller. Not that we'd commit this scenario, but just the possibility, I would hope, would be enough to keep the team we commit to to keep their word as their team would probably be shot if they recanted and we played out that scenario.

Given the conflicting results, it makes sense, whichever side we commit to to lynch the questionable claim. With everyone either protecting or killing, cop investigations won't occur much anymore. Thus, it profits both Paper and the team we go with to lynch the questionable member. If lynched correctly, the other team will go out the window. If not, the other team is still doomed as then there will be 4 killing entities that will off that team quite nicely. Though there would be the chance for the other team to get off a kill or 2 themselves, if they could all agree on who to attack. For this reason, I want to lynch as close to the death scene as possible. Thus, I'd like to ask the people who have already posted what they are to put votes on whichever one they like between StrykkerVerde and STD. Lest you hesitate, remember that this will immensely profit your team if you are selected. If you hesitate and your team is selected, your chances of winning will go down substantially because the other team can try to discuss their choices in thread.

[vikingfan]

The line about "considering the Rocks would probably go after the Scissors as well" is probably irrelevant, since Scissors would have NO defensive position if they go down to two members, and thus no need for Rock to join in for a double-kill. On the contrary, if one of us targeted a Scissors at that point, we'd protect them from the Paper kill which is otherwise guaranteed! If you try a double-cross, remember that. And if I sense that you might, I'll call this off and go back to the Scissors-and-Rock eliminate Paper gambit we tried yesterday. But anyway...

I wasn't planning on doing that anyway. I was just pointing out that whatever team we commit to does NOT hold all the cards in terms of keeping their word. But I am planning on keeping mine.

Code: Select all

***I am setting this in code brackets because it has NOTHING to do with vikingfan's plan.***
The thought occurs that if we DON'T guess-lynch the suspicious person, but instead go with LC, then Paper can target both of the claimants tonight. DL remains alive as a token Scissor, Rock still gets to protect three people, but Coron just refuses to protect either of the claimants and protects vikingfan instead. Scissors can be lynched tomorrow with impunity, so then we see who is left of Rock and Paper for an endgame. So I suppose it's in SV & STD's best interest to find a way to convince us you're Rock...

[/quote]

So which plan were you liking better? I'm going to wait until Narninian chimes in one more time before I announce my choice.

[vikingfan]

I have a good hunch who is telling the truth between them, but I want to wait for Coron's result, if he has one.

I think I'm going to go with the Rock team. No offense, but when everything is equal, I have to think: "who do I trust more?" Given Locus's wild insistence to vote anything and everything paper, I just feel that I trust Rock more to hold up their end of their bargain.

As far as coming in second, it's not guaranteed. One of these teams HAS to make a deal with us in order to try to win. Scissors can now go after either Rock or Paper and hope for the best. Do you have any objection to hooking up with Rock, Narn?

I'm going to hold off on a vote until we decide which route we're taking for lynching.

[vikingfan]

Well I'd say we lynch who we think the faker is, and if we are wrong, we go with scissors, if we are right we go with rock (basically ally with the opposite side of who we lynch) - so we should set up an exact plan with scissors in case we are wrong.

Seems too complicated, especially since I agree with Mr. Flay as to the faker's identity. I want an endorsement from you on which way we should be leading though.

And in the meantime,

Vote STD

until further notice.

[vikingfan]

In that case, Narn, we may as well decide now who we're killing tonight-unless you have an objection, I'll go after Locus, you go after DarkLight.

And that's it for now, Rocks. It's up to you to finish the job on STD.

[vikingfan]

What the heck did Narninian do? Unless he double-crossed and went for someone protected? Or did he just forget to make a choice?

Well, Rock, I did my duty(as you can tell), since Locus is dead. Now things are interesting as DarkLight is in the same situation we were in yesterday as kingmaker.

Unless, of course, the Rocks and Paper ally to destroy the last scissor, Darklight. What would be the mechanism then if it was 2 v. 2?

[vikingfan]

Wait, never mind, the OP says that if you forget to make a choice, one will be made for you. So Narninian MUST have targeted a protected Rock, or had it made for him to target a protected Rock. Hmm...

[vikingfan]

BTW, just so you all know, I'll be out of town starting sometime tomorrow afternoon until sometime Sunday night.

I too will await Narninian's response, but as of now, I'm willing to follow the same route as Mr. Flay-kill darklight and hope for the best tonight.

[vikingfan]

Well, we COULD just lynch darklight and then blindly kill. It leaves it open to a win for either Rock or Paper. If both sides compare lists, then everyone will be dead. If no one compares lists, then there remains a chance that someone will be alive tomorrow.

Is this a bad plan?

[vikingfan]

Ahem. My name is

DarkLight140

. Capital L, and 140, not 141. DarkLight141 -DarkLight145 exist soley as extra accounts on things where having multiple accounts is beneficial.

Secondly, I would prefer that I get lynched, and then vikingfan kill Mr. Flay, and Narninian kill StrykkerVerde. The Rocks, naturally, do the opposite. Everyone dies, therefore no one wins and Scissors does just as well as the rest of the teams, since everyone ends with a loss. Claiming that Scissors comes in last is possible, but not really, since frankly dead is dead and the game would end in an orgy of blood in that scenario anyway.

2 Paper vs. 1 Rock vs. 1 Scissor come the night is doable as well, and it eliminates the 'Scissors comes in last because you were lynched rather than killed' thing. So I guess that would be best.

Vote: Mr. Flay

. I kill Narninian, he kills me, vikingfan kills StrykkerVerde, StrykkerVerde kills vikingfan, and we all go to hell in a clear-cut draw. Claiming that Paper won that scenario is, again, quite possible (since they had the most going into the night) but dead, as I said, is dead. Probably better for Paper to be able to claim they came in first, though, rather than only being able to claim Scissors came in last.

That's assuming that everyone kills according to the list, which as we've seen, is far from a given in this game.

Let's analyze the possibilties. If we lynch Darklight now, then it's 2 v. 2 and everyone is dead. If we leave Darklight alive and kill Mr. Flay instead(hypothetically), that leads to a much less clear-cut endgame where possibly one side could win if someone screws up and leaves someone unkilled.

I suppose the thing to do is to decide whether to go for a clear-cut draw or to go for a possible win. I want to hear what Narninian thinks before we decide.

[vikingfan]

In that case, we may as well end the game.

vote darklight

According to Darklight's recommendation, I'm going to kill Mr. Flay and Narninian will kill

StrykkerVerde

. That leaves everyone dead, or should, assuming no one screws up.

[vikingfan]

Woohoo! I thought for sure we were dead when we were down early but we strategized nicely and resurrected ourselves from the dead.

As it turns out, my decision to pick Rock worked perfectly-if we had picked Scissors, they would have won. Man, that game was hard-I thought for sure we were dead after we were down a paper at the outset. I thought we were dead half a dozen times, but things worked out just right.

Great game, Fuldu. I predicted at the start that the game would be a classic and it looks that way, at least from my (biased) point of view.

[vikingfan]

BTW, Fuldu, you said in another thread that this game was turning out much differently than you expected. How so? And what was your theory as to whether or not it was good to lynch?

[vikingfan]

I disagree Darklight. Much of the discussion was to get rid of the papers-which IMO was the correct play. What hurt you guys was that we decided directly after pwnz was lynched to kill scissors. If we hadn't done that, we were shot right there. Also, we weren't getting a lot of nightkills anyway.

[vikingfan]

Looking at the night choices, two people messed up that night. Scissors, it looks like, pulled off our part flawlessly and threw a protect in as well, but Rock stopped our kill, and only one of you Papers targeted us in any case. If not for StrykkerVerde's mistake, you'd have lost the game- your plan to kill Scissors made no difference at all. After that, though...

Bingo-if not for SV screwing up, we never even sniff the endgame.

I find it interesting how two different decisions were made during the game that went different directions. Rather than eliminate Paper completely, both sides negotiated for Paper's assistance. Then, when it was 2 v. 2 v. 1, we made exactly the opposite decision and eliminated Scissors.

[vikingfan]

Out of curiousity, Fuldu, was there any scenario where EVERYONE would be dead?

[vikingfan]

Hmm-so there would have been a winner, no matter what. Interesting. That would have changed a lot of play styles if we had known that from the beginning.

[vikingfan]

How would that have worked? Would we have just agreed to no-lynch and no-kill forever?

[vikingfan]

Actually scratch that. I see what you're saying-have people kill each other in their own scum group, though I wouldn't have bought that.

[vikingfan]

Out of curiousity, Darklight, if we had gone the other route and tried to convince you to side with one of us, who would you have gone with?

[vikingfan]

Oh, and Locus, you shot your own team's chances. I thought seriously about going with scissors-Darklight played a very good game, but I just didn't feel that I could trust Locus after his whole "must go after scissors" spiel. If we had gone with scissors, scissors would have won, oddly enough.

[vikingfan]

Hmm-so we would have had a better chance of winning in any case. In any case, it was a great game!

[vikingfan]

Who were you planning on picking if you had been around?