Mini 774: Case Closed Mafia (One Truth Prevails!)

[Sajin]

/confirm

[Sajin]

just missing pacman

[Sajin]

Vote: Firestarter

Its what Smokey the Bear would do.

[Sajin]

Vote: Millar13

for taking an anti-town policy in order to help his scum play.

FOS:BATTUOSAI

for applying "tactics" in the random voting stage

And the thing wrong with that is?

I've only known scum players to try and make a game serious A.S.A.P
so doing so was a scum tell

Towny doesn't feel akward around the random stage

Your right don't feel awkward about the random stage....

so why would you not vote, like everyone else is doing?

and why would you FOS the 2 people who put a slight bit of pressure on you, millar13?

[Sajin]

If you read Post 42 Sajin you would have noticed, that I no longer FOS Battousai and instead I am looking at Firestarter in stead

And three people have put pressure on me so far, not including you...so I think you need to check your facts first and then come back to me.

I won't confirm and actually place my vote, until I am sure I that the person I am voting for appears the most scum looking. At the moment, I have suspicions but not hard fact

Thanks for answering the questions millar13, looks townie.

You still don't want to vote in the random voting stage, looks neither alignment, in and of itself, but stops information, slightly scummy.

You still fear being suspected though, scummy.

I do agree that the wagon needs to back off more for post content though. Wagons are bad for us, especially this early. Town needs more posts with content.

[Sajin]

I do agree on the amount of scumminess of millar13. A townie would not fear nearly as much about the RV stage as I have posted before. I would possibly be willing to push this to a soft claim, but before that I want posts by those who have not posted.

Slight FOS:
Rage
Pacman
Issac
Dubya


Now granted its Easter, thus the slight fos. I understand if you have not posted much as of yet. But come tuesday, I would like opinions from these people before this goes ANY farther.

agreed firestarter?

[Sajin]

@millar13- seriously? The reason for a few slip ups was a couple of fingers not working correctly? The mind is what writes sir. You said in the first few pages that FOSing is a defensive mechanism....yet that all you have done all game. So by your own logic, your being defensive, yes? I am however still waiting for the couple plain sight lurkers and no posters before proceeding.

@firestarter, post 100- The reason its off is because your reasoning for backing off is my post. Yet, you responded to my post your referencing THEN voted him THEN unvoted him. Your rationalization of the situation does not work with the post order....and it looks odd. His scummyness should not matter if we are indeed waiting for the lurkers to post.

@Battousai- I like your post 85, but I do think your dredging a little much out of the possible words/realtionships. Possibly not.

@SC- Your analyisis is super critical, but I cannot find fault with it atm.

@Korlash- Your still plain sight lurking to me.

to mod,

/prod

on the people who have only posted for confirmation?

[Sajin]

I like how firestarter bolds right after the mod warns about it....

[Sajin]

confirm vote firestarter

Still at 2 below

I think we get more information out of a firestarter lynch at this point.

[Sajin]

@Firestarter- I confirmed my vote because it was on you from the random voting stage still. I wanted to state that it was no longer random.

@millar13 "bussing" The act of acting hostile to scum about to be lynched in order to distance yourself from them. This is a negative term used to describe late joiners on a popular option vote (read lynch vote). It comes from the coloquial "throwing your friend under the bus" i.e. bussing.

[Sajin]

You can still bus without having your attitue change. You could deliberately argue withsome d1, have one of you get lynched so that the other could remain clear and possibly get protections and stuff. Your attitude not changing in this reguard does not clear the act.

[Sajin]

My spelling=fail last post >< I did not preview


There is not any reason to "line up" lynches. Doing so is prejudicial to one day and favors scum because your voting based on less information. Thats not to say someone should not be suggested to be lynched on a future day. But saying you want these next 2 people lynched then not listening to any new information in between is very scummy indeed.

[Sajin]

I second the name claim idea firestarter

[Sajin]

mother of the main protagonist, probably a vanilla if its true, but you never know. Any CCs?

[Sajin]

neither am I

[Sajin]

we asked for it, should always ask for a claim before a lynch. More info=good

[Sajin]

Actually the show is over 500 episodes... (Too bad I can only watch 2 at a time at the site I watch them at )

Wow Millar, first you complain that making a mistake in wording isn't scummy, it just makes you human. Now that it has happened to Firestarter (spelling or wording), you jump on his case for it.

2nded

[Sajin]

If you seriously think I would spend 2 weeks helping out town, as scum, you are seriously deluded.

I have more important things to be doing then wasting my, and Towns time doing something like that.

Its a suggestion, nothing more.
And I can categorically deny trying to save face.
The fact I claimed vanilla in D1 has its downfalls, as Im well aware.
This ultimatelt ends with me being lynched, and I am going to do nothing to stop that when the time comes.

What I do propose doing in this timeframe, is compiling a series of posts on every player. PBPA's of each one.

Now, this should not stop anyone else from doing so, but Im willing to help Town out as much as I can while Im still here.

With my fate accepted, and it is accepted by me...
I think utilising the next 2 weeks to gather info is a good thing.
I will be confirmed town after my lynch.

For example, your latest post, Isaac, is already one that I could use in compiling such PBPA's Ive mentioned.

The more time Town has to gather info, and by that, the more info town has, the better..

IMO, scum will want this day to end as quick as possible with me on the chopping block, and move onto D2 with the info gathered already, which, lets face it, is more or less only on M13 & I.

Why not use the time left in this day to gather info?
And Ill repeat this, I accept my fate at being lynched, and will not plea to be left alive.

The first two lines in this post are extremly scummy....

"wasting my, and towns time".....seriously?

And also waiting on the 3 peeps.

[Sajin]

Your whole argument on policy lynches I completely disagree with. We can lynch off townies until lynch or lose (granted we do not know what day that is, but for game balance reasons I will assume we have 1 or 2 MLes to use). Also, lynching off firestarter here will allow his flip to tell a lot. In fact I think its scummy wanting to keep him alive at this point.


And claiming who we think is town and who is not here lets scum set up day 2 better. We already have a decent lynch.

[Sajin]

@SC: Me for ad hominem? Quotes please? I'm pretty sure I was the one yelling at Firestarter for using ad hominem >.<

This stood out looking at your posts in isolation:

You.
Cannot.
Read.

Go.
To.
Kindergarten.

I can't blame you for getting frustrated, though.

Well that's hardly the worst thing I've read on this site... And if you can't blame him for being frustrated then I don't see how you can honestly accuse him of Ad Hominem...

I wouldn't like to be told to go back to kindergarten either. I am implying that there are other ways he could have gone about it, though.

SC, why are you picking out a point with Isaac, only to seem to agree with him afterwards?

I think he agrees with the sentiment but not the implementation, Fire

[Sajin]

@Lindisfarne

1: The first part of your post is a WIFOM arguement. Scum could think you would think that and thus adjust their actions/reactions accordingly.

2: I did not say to lynch people I thought were town. I mean random lynching. The 10-3 town scum math odds of winning as town become a lot better RL twice then NLing 4 times, even with a cop accounted for in the period before LY/LO

3: His flip gives us more information regardless of what direction the flip is. Obviously it would help more if he is indeed scum.

4: It is not D2, it is D1. I will probably post a list on D2. If not then, D3 for sure. I think we have a decent first day lynch. But giving more info to the scum lets them setup better for the next day. I am not going to example this because no mafia game thread should ever have decent scum tactics posted in it. However right now I think we have a lynch and I would rather us post all the information we have tomorrow. Posting it right now would setup better night actions for scum.

4 "next": So your saying a list of scum does not provide a list of who you think is town as well?

@ sidenote: plz save that for after the night actions please.

[Sajin]

2: I did not say to lynch people I thought were town. I mean random lynching. The 10-3 town scum math odds of winning as town become a lot better RL twice then NLing 4 times, even with a cop accounted for in the period before LY/LO

3: His flip gives us more information regardless of what direction the flip is. Obviously it would help more if he is indeed scum.

1) Then why post it? It is useless information, as I'm most confident no one planned on no lynching until endgame...

2) You didn't answer the question. The question was what information would be gained, not what flip would give us information.

1:My other quote that this refers to is referring to the possibility of them being either scum or town. Its not useless depends on meta, but I have no idea what the meta of this game would be. But it was a meta argument to counter a meta argument. Neither is that useful to this actual game.

2: The information gained would be the insight into his posts. Because he posted a lot I referred to a lot of information. Knowing the alignment behind 75 posts or whatever he is up to now in the thread adds up to a lot of stuff that can be dug through.

[Sajin]

@Lin:
1-Yes lots (not all, but lots) are WIFOM arguements. But clearly I perfer the other glass of wine in this case. Your clearly judgemental on my join date. Do you bow down in homage of 2004 players?

2-3: I can't tell you what information until the flip occurs. The lot strictly refers to him having a lot of posts in the thread which sheds more light on possible information because we now know the true alignment of more posts in the thread. If you don't consider this as information then you must know firestarter's alignment.

4- I do not see a response.


@ alex - your one question to me

See last post and this one (questions 2-3).


@SC- Referencing all those scum tactics is scummy in my opinion. Purely because doing so casts doubt rather than digs up any information. I do not have a problem with your case arguments at this time.

[Sajin]

Heir to Blackblade! Its very Grandeur like and Legendary imo.

[Sajin]

@firestarter my section: I can have beliefs and theories behind someones alignment. I can read into things. They are not perfect. The only way anyone gains actual information is when someone dies. I have been fooled enough by fake tells to know this. Other points I have already responded too.

Will read rest of it later and respond to other sections.

[Sajin]

I have been fooled enough by fake tells to know this.

Please elaborate on this point.

I cannot elaborate without breaking forum conduct rules, namely referencing other mafia websites and/or ongoing games. Suffice it to say its happened before.

That said, I like your arguments here.

unvote, vote: strangercoug

[Sajin]

Sajin- What are you suspicious of SC for? Don't say "I agree with Firestarter."

QFT.

Its the same thing we didn't like about SC when he agreed with millar's case on fire.

last page I said I am suspicious and you quote and agree with me. Then you slam me for actualizing my suspicions with a vote a page later. What gives?

[Sajin]

Don't OMGUS me and then I may respond to you. Still typing response to batt.

[Sajin]

The 2 main points I though firestarter had:

The quote your saying no one suspected millar depending on firestarters flip. As I recall it was you who theorized them as scumbuddys.

Also when you pointed out the supposed contradiction: There was no contradiction.

I think your misrepresenting firestarter with the quotes provided.

[Sajin]

Um, that has nothing to do with the statement.

He never stated that X Y and Z were conglomerated.

[Sajin]

mod any word on the 3 non posters?

[Sajin]

Firestar has been coming across as townie in his latest few posts. This neither clears him nor confirms him. With 3 possible new people coming in I don't want to see a quick lynch. I am pursuing another lead for the moment. And his squirmyness as I turned my eye has made me more suspicious.

[Sajin]

And his squirmyness as I turned my eye has made me more suspicious.

Calling you out on a legitimate suspicion is not being squirmy, so stop using me as a scapegoat to get pressure off you.

You slipped here.

[Sajin]

How?

he had 2 votes I had a fos. The person under pressure he refered to was likely himself, freudian slip.

[Sajin]

How?

he had 2 votes I had a fos. The person under pressure he refered to was likely himself, freudian slip.

This is crap. I know Firestarter's case on me to be serious, but your case on me is a joke and can be summed up as you telling me "Yeah, whatever, scaredy cat." If you're going to vote me, at least present me with something worth defending like Firestarter did. Don't be skimping on scumhunting to see what you can get away with.

Unvote: alexhans
Vote: Sajin

sorry, I perfer shorter posts. I still explain stuff. Just because I don't write mafia essays does not make my few points less valid.

[Sajin]

@Lindisfarne

1: I got tired of the quadruple nested quotes with long posts all on the same subject. Conversation was lacking especially with out replacements.

2-3: I still think it provides information. This is not a strong argument I agree.

4/next: I think the benefits *ON DAY 1* favor scum over town. Later on, I totally agree with you.

[Sajin]

How?

he had 2 votes I had a fos. The person under pressure he refered to was likely himself, freudian slip.

This is crap. I know Firestarter's case on me to be serious, but your case on me is a joke and can be summed up as you telling me "Yeah, whatever, scaredy cat." If you're going to vote me, at least present me with something worth defending like Firestarter did. Don't be skimping on scumhunting to see what you can get away with.

Unvote: alexhans
Vote: Sajin

sorry, I perfer shorter posts. I still explain stuff. Just because I don't write mafia essays does not make my few points less valid.

Yes, yes it does. It does if your points are vague.

thats different from "skimping"

[Sajin]

@alexhans

I think I caught a slip, that is valid reason enough for me to add to previously mentioned reasons.

I don't think you have provided a viable defense for him.

[Sajin]

Hell! Im gonna make this clear:
@everyone: Do you think Fire is scum or not?

I am fairly sure hes town.I think hes town at about 80-20 odds. I am willing to go through with a lynch due to the reasons Korlash and Bat have posted. I still think SC is scum.

[Sajin]

I still want Sajin lynched with the "80% town, but still willing to lynch" comment along with twisting my words and false OMGUS accusations, but I think Firestarter is scummy enough to warrant me hammering him.

I am glad your still OMGUSing scum. I think korlash and Batsuoi agree with my comment. And I would love to see how you think I twisted words.

[Sajin]

OMGUS- Sudden voting or pressuring of someone as a response to that someone voting/pressuring you. Usually done in greater amounts then original pressure in an attempt to get pressure off.

[Sajin]

Nope, they are in the thread, feel free to browse. Besides if I personally list them then SC would just claim some were not attacks, and this one was weak etc etc.

Its better for town if you decide for yourself. Not having SC or myself manipulate it.

[Sajin]

OMGUS- Sudden voting or pressuring of someone as a response to that someone voting/pressuring you. Usually done in greater amounts then original pressure in an attempt to get pressure off.

Then by that token, do you think SC is feeling pressure from you. SC has only 1 vote on him, and is no where near being lynched. Do you think SC is only attacking you for attacking him? Do you think what you said about Fire is scummy or that saying that it is, is not a valid point?

at the time of my pressuring him fire was voting him and kairu had accused but not posted anything.

1st ?- yes
2nd?- clarify please. what is "it"/ the point in question.

[Sajin]

I fail at names, sorry kairyuu

[Sajin]

Nope, I stand behind my statement. It is not scummy to on day 1 want to lynch someone could be town. In a 3/12 setup 80/20 is barely more town than neutral. And that is how I see Fire atm slightly town favored with a very soft floor. Its the soft floor that makes me ok with lynching him.

[Sajin]

1- I read this as, "give me more words to twist"

2- I answered every question asked of me and will continue to do so. Your denial of this is noted.

3- I could care less what you posted in other games. This is not relevant at all in this game, especially when brought up by the same poster. Thanks for the attempted alignment frame on yourself.

Thanks for confirming my suspicions.

[Sajin]

1- I read this as, "give me more words to twist"

How so? This is not the first time I've told you "this is crap". I feel that I have adequately defended my attacking you after you attacking me. If I attacked somebody and that somebody thought he or she had a legitimate reason to attack back, then he or she by all means can—his or her opinion is not void, as you are slandering mine to be. If defendants were forbidden the right to attack back if the person questioning him or her was scummy, this game would easily be won by the Mafia, and that assumes the game gets anywhere.

2- I answered every question asked of me and will continue to do so. Your denial of this is noted.

Actually, this is what set me off:

Besides if I personally list them then SC would just claim some were not attacks, and this one was weak etc etc.

How is this criticizing your not answering questions, and how is this criticizing your not answering questions as opposed to implying you're keeping things to yourself under fear of scrutiny?

3- I could care less what you posted in other games. This is not relevant at all in this game, especially when brought up by the same poster. Thanks for the attempted alignment frame on yourself.

I brought that up because that's a post I made as scum which I see as similar to yours. That game is completed, and I have used stuff I've done previously as scum as tells against others doing the same or similar in later games. Kairyuu did that against me in this very thread, and I see no difference in the long run with what I'm talking about here.

Seriously, read it before you dismiss it as unimportant. It's backing some of my reasoning as to why you are scum.

Not reading it. Still. I love that you feel the need to create outside material to somehow demonstrate your point. I have no fear of scrutiny- you obviously do. Thanks for proving my point.

[Sajin]

new Question- You proved that yourself fearful when you attacked me.

Question 2- I already answered.

Question 1 your baiting me for more material so you can twist it back on me. Just like you did with your last 4 posts or so.

[Sajin]

Will do. I'm sold by the Firestarter case (specifically with his hypocrisy), so if I can't rack up enough votes for Sajin I'll deal with him later and just vote FS.

I fail to see the logic in this statement when you attacked me for a very similar thing. Look who is being slightly hypocritical.

Is "racking up" votes code for bashing everyone up enough to dominate town discussion? Just curious.

I like my vote where it is, but I am willing to vote FS for today.

[Sajin]

20 percent=20 percent chance of killing scum.

NL=0 percent chance of killing scum.

[Sajin]

Who did ever say no lynch man? Are you more certain that SC is scum or that Fire is scum? If you think SC is scummier vote for SC regardless of how many votes Fire has... You musn't act taking others into account when voting. Vote for who you think is more scummy and no one is gonna will fault you if you give enough reasons.

the deadline with many of us split in votes means a NL may be imminent. I am willing to switch my vote instead of forcing a nl to occur.

[Sajin]

My case is mostly based on your reactions to my vote. So I am happy to discuss at any later date.

[Sajin]

*taps fingers impatiently*

Wasn't Night supposed to hit 4 hours ago?

impatient to get your ability in? Thanks for softclaiming.

[Sajin]

1-I find people who overly agresive counterattack scummy.
2- You demonstrated this.

You can disagree with 1 all you want, its my opinion through experiences. 2, you clearly demonstrated. However, its not enough to vote you, my vote was for informational purposes.

Today, since I now doubt he is a cop,

vote kairyuu

You were far to anxious yesterday. Therefore I doubt your any sort of protective role, that leaves investigation and scum. With a cop dead, I am fairly certain your the latter.

[Sajin]

Sajin what are you doing!

Putting pressure on someone, who you think could have a power role!
With the COP dead, are you trying to remove the Doc from the equatation as well. Sounds scummy as hell

Did you even read my above statement? I think he has a night action, and I do NOT think he is a doctor from his anxious attitude. The only possibility that leaves is scum so I am voting for it.

[Sajin]

Right almost forgot, what about non investigative and non protective roles? Vig, RB, hider, mason, PR giver, etc... you haven't even taken those into consideration have you?

Ah so your sure he has a night action then? Thanks for confirming my suspicions.

Odds are in favor of him being scum over a investigative role. I also have a strong negative vibe from that last post yesterday. If it had a different vibe to it I would not of said anything nor voted at all. But it did.

[Sajin]

SCs meta from what I have gathered from previous games is to counter attack attackers when he is scum. He was not paying me any attention until I voted him with little to no case. It sure got a rise though. That was the goal take it or leave it.

I still doubt kairyuu is a cop. He left way too obvious of a breadcrumb for that. I do not think he has any PR. Bad play on his part in any case.

Do you have any comments on anything from day 1, madeofphail?

[Sajin]

unvote; vote Lindisfarne

Man this is alot of day 1 claiming.

[Sajin]

True (I am used to night start games, forgive me). We can theorize the pictures tomorrow.

[Sajin]

and why did you not claim the double target at the beginning? And you are still sticking to your tracker claim?

[Sajin]

unvote

in the meantime.

[Sajin]

I would like some of the promised cases that were going to occur today, to be posted as well as some more discussion. I am willing to hammer after that occurs.

[Sajin]

A couple people on this vote said they would post cases today and did not. They are likely scum regardless of the flip of the lynchee.

[Sajin]

Alexhans SC and Kairyuu have all said they would talk more. I would like madeofphail to talk more.

[Sajin]

Did I say all the people I wanted to talk more were scum? I guess I missed where I stated that.

[Sajin]

I am not against the lynch at all. I just wanted more discussion to occur before the day was over. But hey, someone rushed it.

[Sajin]

I am not opposed to claiming. Name claims for sure would be very nice. Popcorn style or are you going to make a list kairyuu?

[Sajin]

Well I was about to post how I think kairyuu is absolutely clear, but he could easily be an SK now that I think about it. He was roleblocked night 1 as evidenced by madeofphail. 1 kill night 1. There were 3 kills night 2, vig, mafia and other. And I think its quite clear he has some sort of night action.

He is not in mafia group though. Could still be scum.

vote Kairyuu

Name claim now. Possibly role after.

[Sajin]

Well name claims for sure I am ok with.

My name is Rachel Moore.

Battousai? Korlash? Care to join the name claiming?

[Sajin]

can we get a prod on millar btw?

[Sajin]

Kairyuu I have a theory to add to that. But I will not be adding that until I get at least name claims from everybody.

[Sajin]

I already posted name, would like more names first, and miller to post.

[Sajin]

Ok, got my question answered. The answer was less than satisfactory, so I do not know who is scum from it.

what was your question, and can we get your name?

[Sajin]

Sajin you sound adamant to find out people's name, and then turn on them for doing so.

I have several theories, I need your name commitment before I start discussing them. Your up.

[Sajin]

And Batt your up for name commitment.

@Korlash- yes the phatom thief kid, yes also the magic Kaito series. They share many of the same characters.

[Sajin]

Flavor: I got myself into a fine mess. Perhaps jimmy will show up, in the meantime I need to help my dad.

Role: Vanilla Townie

@miller- if you were a doc, why did madeofphail die? He was a vig, practically confirmed town because of day 2, and the roleblocker was dead. I don't understand. Targets. Now. With explanations preferably.



@all about alexhans- He was probably redirected to himself since apparently kairyuu knew nothing of magic kaito....hmm. I guess I can

unvote

So what does everyone think about the pictures in the death scenes? I think that the first listed person turns into the second listed person if hit with the drug. Does that seem consistent?

[Sajin]

Well not that we should take what Lindisfarne said as true, but he said the drug would probably only work on Jimmy and one other character. The other character he claimed it would work on is the younger version of SCs claim. Therefore I think SC is town (This could be a very odd bus, but Lindisfarne did know about it, and was trying to defend himself).

Perhaps it is just linkage. If so I would figure there to be a role able to detect the "second names" of people. Or something to that effect.


@Mod Plz note sig.

[Sajin]

I unfortunately agree with korlash here. 24 hours and no formal flavor/targets/role gets a miller vote from me.

[Sajin]

@Batt- I just now realized these forums don't auto update sigs. I am used to that, shrug.

And I was also thinking the same thing.

Testing:

unvote; vote alexhans

vote count please

[Sajin]

why did madeofphail die....because i didn't protect him as totally forgot about him possibly being a town vig. Too busy protecting you

That you could only mean Me or possibly Batt as we were the ones questioning you.

And you claim Batt then Korlash of all things.....I want my test vote to "resolve" then you will get a vote from me sir. Anything to say on your way out the door?

[Sajin]

I would like korlash and Batt to role/flavor claim more fully

SC and I have, not sure if Kairyuu has I think so.

Also if your claiming some kind of role I would like your information because you likely die tonight if this suspect is wrong.

[Sajin]

I would like Korlash to claim in his next post. Then Batt in the one after that. I don't think millar will flavor claim ever.

[Sajin]

Yes but if you had any innocent reports on us it would be helpful. In fact I would rather you both claim power roles and give reports if they would help on your deaths that we could use tomorrow. I am far more likely to follow a dead confirmed cop/whatever then a live one.

[Sajin]

No no. If your information would be helpful you should claim your innocents now so that when you do die we have more information. If you choose not to share and Batt dies not sharing, even if you posted a guilty I would consider lynching you.

In short, I think not wanting to share reports here is scummy.

[Sajin]

That magiced flavor is really bothering me. I would suppose the doc protected night 1?

Both vanillas, interesting. I could support a no lynch today.

If millar's targets are true then Batt would be likely innocent as he was shot by the SK night 1 and protected. Correct me if I am wrong about this assumption. However the larger assumption is millar correctly giving us targets...

[Sajin]

But what if we mislynch and I'm still alive tomorrow?

This reeks a little bit of paranoia.

FoS: Battousai

Why do you want to fos the only clear we may have?

fos SC

[Sajin]

SC-You flipped your position, you wanted to nl because you thought there was one left. Now you think there are 2??? You sow confusion and doubt into everything (Paranoid doctor, thats a little farfetched) and you provide the lowest odds circumstances of occurring to explain what happened. You did not want a clear to even have the chance to exist. Explain.

[Sajin]

@Korlash, Why would SC want to nl and then consider the possibility of 2 scum? The only role that a nl would be advantageous to in both circumstances is a scum role.

[Sajin]

If you really do think all of these things are possible (and for the record they are) then why would you propose no lynching when thats auto fail for us in your later brought up possibility

Therefore your opinion must not have been the same all day. Thats scummy to me

vote SC

[Sajin]

I think the most incriminating thing about SC is that he did not shoot the clear yesterday and he is the only 1 to not realize there could of been one yesterday.

You can talk about possibilities all you wish. This does not make them all equally likely. Sure you can hit on 19.....but would you?

What matters are the odds. I have concluded that based on kill flavor and night actions and reactions to events that SC is the likeliest to be the SK. There is a point where being through about possibilities just muddies the waters you are searching.

[Sajin]

and your being seriously anti-probability.

12 total with 4 scum including a role blocker and a SK with 2 kills total?


Tell me how likely you think that is. Some percents please.

[Sajin]

I think the most incriminating thing about SC is that he did not shoot the clear yesterday and he is the only 1 to not realize there could of been one yesterday.

Uhh... Unless you're a tracker, you don't know if I shot

anybody

.

Thats not the point, Korlash and myself both realized that Batt was likely clear. You did not at the start of today. If Korlash or myself had a killing role we would of shot the clear. Now wait your about to say "WIFOM! You could of shot someone else to frame!". Yes, I could of. Yes, Korlash could of. But, it still tilts the odds of you being the last scum higher.

[Sajin]

By your own theory you stated I am unlikely to be an SK. SC- Am I more likely or less likely in your point of view to be a SK then any other players?

[Sajin]

Note, will be V/LA for next 48 hours (going back) as per sig.

I agree with those odds you posted SC. You do realize its higher odds to randomly lynch scum now.

With a 90 percent chance of hitting a 1/3 or a 1/4.

[Sajin]

90 percent of a 1/3 = 9/10*1/3= 9/30= 3/10=30% ; 30% does not equal 90%.

Odds for prisoners dilemma existing and occurring are FAR lower. Thats my point.


Regardless,

unvote ; vote no lynch

[Sajin]

90 percent of 1/3. In math word problems the word "of" means you multiply.

[Sajin]

the converse of SCs 10 percent or less post.

[Sajin]

90 percent chance of their only being 1 scum left out of the 4 of us

so we should nl to 3 people

1/3 chance of catching scum out of the remaining. I fail to see how your getting this confused.

[Sajin]

Reaction to my vote on him. He completely freaked out.

The kill flavor part refers to his role claim being the likeliest to have a magiced kill method. Not that the actual SK claimed the same name that he actually got though. The night action part refers to how the doctor semi cleared was not killed last night.

I don't really like long posts. Sorry if my shorter posts come across as unclear.

[Sajin]

90 percent chance of their only being 1 scum left out of the 4 of us

so we should nl to 3 people

1/3 chance of catching scum out of the remaining. I fail to see how your getting this confused.

I am confused because you said:

I agree with those odds you posted SC.

You do realize its higher odds to randomly lynch scum now.

Meaning that we have better odds of lynching scum today and not tomorrow which is contradictory to what you just said about no lynching down to three.

No. He was talking about the 10 percent chance of his situation (2 scum) existing. If it was only 10 percent, then the 90 percent chance of it being 1/4 would mean 90% of 1/4 or 22.5 percent. 22.5 percent of victory is greater than 10 percent of prisoneers dilemna going town (I am not going to assume the 1/9 odds here as provided).

[Sajin]

I agree. The whole point of those numbers was to debunk the theories of SC about possible prisoneer's dilemna and no lynch today.

BTW, the vote I was refering to him freaking about was not today, it was day 1.


Did I say that his roleclaim made him scum for sure? No. Just slightly more likely because of kill flavor.

[Sajin]

I was not pushing any crap cases. You blew up at anyone who remotely attacked you. I found it scummy.

If my case was really that much crap, why did you care so much?

[Sajin]

The numbers are meaningless yet you conclude my sentiment about the prisoneers dilema anyways.

Not sure what the 3 players over 2 players thing means though, should that not be reversed?

Reguardless, I did not like the way he responded to alexhans, firestarter and myself on day 1/2.

[Sajin]

Hmm. Well what do you think about my other points I have brought up Batt? You have not commented on those at all.

Its not just 1 post for each of those.

[Sajin]

137
171 -defensive
235-defensive
330- Blanket list of people that are scummy
372- Long post mostly on defense from firestarter's posts.
472- Is incredibly defensive
515-517
573- He tells me we will discuss this later and does not really do so
579- More defensive posting against alexhans
615- More OMGUS against alexhans
627- More defense from SC
587- Could be a possible scumtell, telling alexhans he is digging his own grave.

I would say a majority of SC's posts while in this game were him trying to defend himself. I find said behavior scummy. Its not just against my attacks.

My question for Batt- Could you have not done something like this yourself?

[Sajin]

Alright well I saw the thread. Thinking.

[Sajin]

Assuming 1 scum. That clears me I assume. I love how SC keeps his options open all game. Hmmm.

Any response SC?

[Sajin]

vote: SC

vote count request

[Sajin]

Woot!

Incidentally what happened with that night 1 kill?

And was that your real character?

[Sajin]

Also, I was tunneling you since day 1. Why would you leave me up?

[Sajin]

I meant I thought I would of been nightkilled if it was you. I suppose that is a WIFOM based argument though. Also, you had avvid cause to be voting me so I guess you could of voted first if not for the watcher claim.