Mini 779 - Killer in Smalltown Y - Over

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Hello, fellow citizens. My name is John and I'm here to tell you about these amazing shamwows...

Suggestion: People put their role name in their avatar, location, or sig for easier reference.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Shinnen hasn't posted on the site since last Friday, so...

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@Grimmy: I agree that a mis-lynch is bad for us right now, and I'm fairly certain that Tina(Y) is scum from the fact that she blocked me last night, and only scum would block the closest thing we have to a cop here.

Vote Tina

Why discount being kidnapped by Charles (imaginality)?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Just a couple quick things. I currently side with Richard (mathusis) in this current dispute with Tina (Y). Given the claims are accurate I have a hard time believing it would be good town strategy to block a watcher/tracker.

I'm not voting until everyone in the town shows up and have we have a mass target/info claim though. Personally, I'm willing to claim at any time once we can agree on a rough order.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Claim: I targeted Kevin the Home Invader since I figured the Home Invader/Hider would have one of the better chances to be alive on D1, seemingly I was wrong.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Claim: I targeted Kevin the Home Invader since I figured the Home Invader/Hider would have one of the better chances to be alive on D1, seemingly I was wrong.

Just wondering, why did you target anyone?

Worst case I move a vote from townie to townie for basically no net benefit or loss (I guess it could possibly create more noise to cut through but I figured no one would target Kevin because of his role so this wouldn't be an issue). Best case I take the vote of an anti-town player and give it to a pro-town player dramatically weakening their strength during the day phase.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote: Tina

Don't see a pro-town benefit in blocking a watcher/tracker. If they're pro-town we get useful results, if SK they'd still give us useful results, if they're scum we get WIFOM, but it's still useful information to have because no one is going to accept that information purely on face value and it's quite possible to catch people in lies with all the other roles available.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I like imaginality's plan, but we should also setup the claim order for tomorrow based off it so there's absolutely no confusion tomorrow that ruins the whole thing.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

The odds of you being RB'ed is 0, as the RB is the only confirmed town I think.

No, the RB has several votes on them and is far from confirmed town; the Jailkeeper is "confirmed town" if we believe Bruce to be pro-town as he didn't die last night.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Tar/Vicki raises a decent point to a degree. If I'm mafia (I'm not, but there's no way to confirm that today that I can think of) I present a huge threat to the town if my night action goes through. Lynching me on the other hand would basically require the SK to kill scum and/or letting Mary Rose loose and hoping she NKs scum or we lose. Thus I'm beginning to think a no lynch is actually better play and I should be blocked or jailkept in the night while still targeting someone to confirm that the person responsible for blocking me actually does so. I'll try and think of a setup to achieve that, but someone else (or multiple someone elses) should be thinking about it.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

FOS DDP for wanting to No Lynch.

QFT

Definitely a

FOS DDP

. Why would you want to give anti-town factions 2 free kills? (Even more so, we have an actual suspect to lynch as well).

Because we could very well be in MYLO already depending on how night actions resolve and I've become less confident that Tina is sure thing lynch. (And while we're on that topic,

unvote

for now). Unfortunately, I think we need both of the blocking roles (Tina and Charles) alive heading into night to block the powers of Mary Rose and myself because those are the powers with the possibility to swing the game to scum no matter how right the town is.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@John - what's this about blocking Mary Rose?

If she's scum and left unblocked then there's a 50 percent chance she wrecks the town. I guess as long as she's directed to target a protected target and then the watcher and/or tracker are setup to make sure she targets the intended individual that would be fine as well.

Top of the page vote count:

Tina has 2 votes (Richard, Misty)
Richard has 1 vote (Tina)
6 are not voting (Bruce, Charles, Mary Rose, Tom, Vicki, John)
9 alive, eh, 5 to lynch.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Note: If Vicki is right that we have to lynch John today, then we can use the same plan as above but with Tina roleblocking Vicki (if she doesn't, Vicki will know; if she does then Vicki can't make the mafia kill in any case).

Yes, but what's the setup where we lynch Tina, but since I'm not confirmed either way I'm blocked/jailkept.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Hi, I'm a mistake; you're busy trying to make me.

If you lynch me, then it's 4-3-1, with three scum they'll surely find a way to get a kill through tonight even if it gives someone up meaning then it's 3-3-1 or 4-3, the SK is better off no targeting if that's an option for them, because if they hit town then it's 2-3-1 or 3-3 and scum have won. Even if the SK no targets then the same thing happens if Bruce targets scum and dies in the night. Essentially, the likely only thing stopping scum from winning if you kill me is the SK correctly identifying and killing scum.

A no lynch means that the SK would have hit town AND Bruce would have to target scum to hand us a loss before the next day. Hence why I've shifted from believing that the lynch of Tina is the best plan since it's not a sure thing to believing a no lynch is actually the best course of action. I've not simply gone with any available plan as Charles claims, I've looked at the possibilities and a no lynch looks the best. Might as well make it really obvious so that everyone else can flip out on me for actually using my brain...

Vote: No lynch

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Keep in mind, we aren't getting anywhere off a no lynch.

We go to night where coordinated night actions allow us to find scum. Unless of course you're suggesting that the proposed night actions will fail in which case it's odd that you haven't pointed out the flaws in the proposed plans.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

We aren't progressing towards eliminating the scum without a lynch, with two deaths a night most likely. Seems loose.

Stop evading the question by reciting mafia catechisms and think about this situation at hand. Given these two statements.

1) If we mislynch today then there's a good chance we lose.
2) Coordinated night actions will find scum.

How is a no lynch a bad option, we avoid losing the game immediately and will have caught scum tomorrow and still have a majority with which to lynch them. I know the play runs contrary to conventional wisdom, but that doesn't mean it's wrong.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

If we mislynch (and by random chance it's more likely than not and by lynching me it

is

a mislynch) then the town rests it's entire fate on the Serial Killer. Now maybe you want what's likely our one crack at this to be on day one with limited information, but we can narrow the list of targets making success more likely even randomly and give ourselves more information and be in near the exact same situation. We see obvious benefit with minimal cost, lynching today carries unknown benefit with a stupidly high degree of risk. The answer is obvious.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

We lynch Tina.

Richard stalks Bruce.
Bruce protects someone.
Tom watches Bruce.

I target Mary Rose and vice versa.

John targets Vicki or Bruce (flips a coin).

Misty targets me.

This way:

If Bruce does not protect someone, Richard would know. (Also if Bruce protects someone and dies, Richard would know who Bruce's target was.)
If Richard does not stalk Bruce, Tom would know.
If Tom does not watch Bruce, there is a 50/50 shot of him being caught out depending if John targeted Bruce or not.
If Vicki does not self-watch, there is a 50/50 shot of her being caught out depending if John targeted Vicki or not.
If I do not jail Mary Rose, there is a 50/50 shot of her vigging me.
If Misty does not target me, we will know.
If John does not steal someone's vote, we will know.
Mary Rose cannot kill.

Suggested claim order:

Tom (confirms he saw Richard target Bruce)
Bruce (says who he protected)
Richard (confirms he saw Bruce visit who Bruce said he did)

Vicki (says if she saw John target her)
Tom (says if he saw John target Bruce)
John (confirms if he targeted Vicki or Bruce)

Misty's action is confirmed if I'm silenced.
My jailing of Mary Rose is 50% confirmed if I'm alive.
Mary Rose being jailed (and therefore cleared of making any kills) is also 50% confirmed if I'm alive.

Unvote

Vote: Tina

Better than the plans that involve lynching me since I now I'm town and since a no lynch doesn't look like a viable option, hope it works out for us.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Question, given Tom's claim should we still have Bruce claim before Richard or should we have Richard claim before Bruce? I'm thinking we flip the order to try and verify Tom's statement.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Still here, just waiting on all claims before proceeding. It would appear that Charles has been silenced so no need to wait for him.

Well since we're waiting for Richard to show up and tell us what we already know, the next claim would be you assuming Charles is silenced.

@Charles, can you give us a vote and then quick unvote to confirm that you're actually here and at least pretending to be silenced.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

And Tom is lying scum becuase I targeted Vicki last night. I would vote for him right now, but we need the final claim and time to layout tonight's night actions before we lynch him.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote: Tom

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Unovte

@mod

Please provide vote count up to and including post 219

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Unvote

- Spelling is hard.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I dont think it will work that way John.

You would have to leave your vote on in order to get an accurate vote count, especially with your particular ability. I have yet to see any mod do a pre-dated vote count.

Bruce
The fist of fury...well, not fury per se...but strong agitation.

It's worth a shot.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Richard, I take it from your lack of objection that Bruce did in fact target me last night.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Potential course of action:

We lynch Tom-scum

If Bruce is town we can't afford to lose him in a faulty protection because that could very well end the game for us, thus he should protect one of his two previous targets either Charles or myself.

We again have Mary Rose and Charles cross target, thus if Charles doesn't jailkeep her there's a 50% she kills him.
We have Misty and I cross-target because we can confirm those targets the next day if I can't talk and if Misty doesn't have a vote.
Bruce targets either Charles or myself and Richard tracks him to verify target.

If we go with this plan the town as a whole should probably decide whether Bruce claims his target first or Richard claims who Bruce targeted first.

I am of course open to other better ideas. Charles since you came up with our last plan if you think you've got a better plan throw up a quick self-vote and then an unvote and we'll work out the details.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Final Plan Proposal

Misty targets John
John targets Misty
Bruce targets John
Richard targets Bruce

Charles targets Mary Rose
Mary Rose targets Charles

Since Mary Rose is seemingly told which persona comes out each night, she claims which half showed up.
Richard confirms that Bruce in fact targeted me.
Everything else should be self-evident or be obvious based on the setup.

Vote: Tom

Time for Tom scum to go away.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Silencing seemingly doesn't hold with Misty dead. We need Mary Rose and Richard to show up and claim results.

The gangster's kill has priority over the "silence squeeze", therefore, Misty's action was rendered invalid.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I am here, I am ready to claim. What order do we want to go in?

I want Richard to claim first.
Then Bruce to confirm/deny and you can claim which personality showed up last night.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Any time now Bruce and Mary Rose.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

From my perspective:

John must be town because if he's double-voting scum they can already force a win.

Sidenote from others' perspective: I can only be scum if Bruce is also scum, since he claims to have protected me and he's a weak doc. (It's possible he is scum and I am not, but the reverse is not possible.)

These are the same assumptions I'm working off of. I see four possible pairings...

Richard/Bruce
Richard/Mary Rose
Bruce/Mary Rose
Bruce/Charles

Charles, take a look at D1 again, I feel like there should be something there to break this open, but I'm just missing it.

Richard, you claimed you had a theory on D2 explaining things, you never revealed that theory. What was it?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Why hasn't Richard voted for Bruce today?

I'm deadly confident that you're scum, and you've done little to prove otherwise.

I have no real accusations to defend from, so proving my innocense is hard. I guess you were the right choice. While you weren't the killer this time, I at least outed you.

Tina I keep reading your last post to see if I've missed something. Where did you out Richard?

@John - what's this about blocking Mary Rose?

Both from D1, where Tom seems to have an odd reaction when two different players are mentioned. The Richard response seeming more like an egregious error to me. I'm disappointed by Richard/Bruce/Mary Rose being as silent as they have, makes it hard to find the truth amongst nothingness.

~

Charles, I need answers to these questions based on the person flipping scum and I need you to abide by your responses.

If we lynch Mary Rose do you kidnap Richard or Bruce?

If we lynch Richard do you kidnap Bruce or Mary Rose?

If we lynch Bruce do you kidnap Richard or Mary Rose?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm not sure why you need to be secretive or kidnapping me if we lynch correctly today. If we lynch Richard (or Mary Rose) and they flip scum you're effectively cleared of being scum. For example, we lynch Richard, you kidnap Mary Rose. If you or I die then you and Mary Rose lynch Bruce for the win. If no one dies then we lynch Mary Rose. She may or may not flip scum, but the next night you kidnap Bruce and we lynch him the next day for the win. The same principle applies to a successful Mary Rose lynch.

To formalize that:

We lynch Richard-scum:
You kidnap Mary Rose again. Mary Rose no targets. Bruce no targets.
You or I die: Mary Rose and one of us lynches Bruce for the win.
No one dies: We lynch Mary Rose. A) She flips scum, we win. B) She flips town, you kidnap Bruce the next night, there's no night kill, you and I lynch Bruce and we win.

We lynch Mary Rose-scum:
You kidnap Bruce. Richard no targets. Bruce no targets.
You or I die: Bruce and one of us lynches Richard for the win.
No one dies: We lynch Bruce A) He flips scum, we win. B) He flips town, you kidnap Richard the next night, there's no night kill, you and I lynch Richard and we win.

Your plan if we lynch Bruce-scum seems like the best option though. If we lynch wrong I'm pretty confident that we're fucked no matter what, but we can try.

Richard seems like the best lynch today, but I'm just insanely paranoid that it's wrong. Give me some time to think and if other people haven't acted before then, I'll make my decision sometime tomorrow.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote: Richard

Here's fucking hoping I'm right.