Mini 779 - Killer in Smalltown Y - Over

[Tarhalindur]

Oh, come

on

people! You're distracting yourself from the most beautiful person in this room - ME, Vicki!

[Tarhalindur]

If we don't get a replacement for Shinnen_no_Me or something similar very soon, I will request replacement.

[Tarhalindur]

*ahem*

This is Smalltown. We're mass target claiming and info claiming. I'd say the last two to target claim should be Tracker and Watcher, in that order (especially since our Tracker already claimed he was roleblocked), then I info claim after everybody else is done (since my ability is passive, I had no target last night).

[Tarhalindur]

Here, let's just run the randomization, it shouldn't take any more time than randomizing roles for my games from. (Speaking of that, what I'm about to do is how I randomize my roles in my modded games, except that I'm using dice tags instead of random.org for transparency.)

Random position:
1) armlx - Misty the Librarian
2) Grimmy (replacing Shinnen_no_Me) - Bruce the Martial Artist
3) Debonair Danny DiPietro - John the Advertiser
4) Hypatia - Mary Rose the Split Personality
5) imaginality - Charles the Kidnapper
6) Y - Tina the Stripper

Fixed position:
7) malthusis - Richard the Stalker
8) AshMC1984 - Tom the Peeper
9) Tarhalindur - Vicki the Model

(Note: I'm not completely sure on optimal placement of the last three - if anyone has an alternate suggestion for how {tracker, watcher, selfwatcher} should claim, let me know - but I AM sure these three roles need to claim after the others.)

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

Original Roll String: 1d5

1 5-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

Original Roll String: 1d4

1 4-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

Original Roll String: 1d3

1 3-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

Original Roll String: 1d2

1 2-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[Tarhalindur]

1) armlx - Misty the Librarian

2) Grimmy (replacing Shinnen_no_Me) - Bruce the Martial Artist
3) Debonair Danny DiPietro - John the Advertiser
4) Hypatia - Mary Rose the Split Personality
5) imaginality - Charles the Kidnapper
6) Y - Tina the Stripper

First dice roll is 1, hence armlx claims first. Remove armlx from the pool and we get this list for the second dice roll:

1) Grimmy (replacing Shinnen_no_Me) - Bruce the Martial Artist

2) Debonair Danny DiPietro - John the Advertiser

3) Hypatia - Mary Rose the Split Personality
4) imaginality - Charles the Kidnapper
5) Y - Tina the Stripper

Second dice roll is 2, so DDDP goes second.

Iterate:

1) Grimmy

2) Hypatia

3) Imaginality
4) Y

Dice roll is 2.

1) Grimmy
2) Imaginality

3) Y

Dice roll is 3.

1) Grimmy

2) Imaginality

Dice roll is 1.

1) Imaginality

Dice roll has a 100% probability of being 1, so no need to roll the dice.

If we use these dice rolls for random order, our claim order for non-tracking players is: Armlx, Debonair Danny DiPietro, Hypatia, Y, Grimmy, Imaginality.

If everybody is satisfied that this order is determined randomly, then we'll begin with an Armlx target claim. (I have comments to make on players, but I intend to wait until after target claiming is done to do so.)

[Tarhalindur]

Final claim: nobody targeted me last night. [vicki]Come on, people, beautiful model here? Sure, the mirror is scary, but don't you want to come see me?[/vicki]

Give me a bit, I'm mulling the situation over.

[Tarhalindur]

I agree with Misty, John and Richard that Tina blocking our tracker is not pro-town but I'm not keen to run Tina up to L-1 just yet.

It's also worth noting that even if Tina is scum, she didn't make the scum kill since we know she blocked Richard.

(Possible players who made the scum kill: Misty, John, Mary Rose, Bruce, Charles, Vicki. Did not make the scum kill: Tina (roleblocked Richard), Richard (was blocked), Tom (saw Richard).)

I concur. Why didn't you block one of the killing roles to prevent scum from getting a free kill?

What killing roles (Besides Mary/Rose, who isn't exactly a killer)? I suppose you know of any I don't?

QFT, 'killing roles' plural is an interesting slip. Like Tina, I only see the one killing role listed, Mary Rose (and that's why I kidnapped her). What did you have in mind, Misty?

Let's formalize something further.

Cannot be the Mafioso who made the N0 kill:

- Y (Tina - malthusis/Richard claimed roleblock and Y confirmed)
- malthusis (Richard - blocked by Y/Tina on night when Mafia successfully killed)
- AshMC1984 (Tom - saw malthusis target and has mod-confirmed that he should have seen malthusis)

Unlikely to be the Mafioso who made the N0 kill:
- Hypatia (Mary Rose - Charles claimed kidnap on her and Mafia successfully killed, so Hypatia cannot be Mafia unless imaginality/Charles is also Mafia)

I also doubt that Charles is Mafia given that he didn't block an investigative role (he could have been sent to block Grimmy to make sure Mixologist wasn't protected, but I have my doubts there).

Cannot be the SK:
- Y (Tina - malthusis/Richard claimed roleblock on night SK successfully killed)

Unlikely to be SK:
- Hypatia (Mary Rose - malthusis/Richard claimed roleblock on night SK successfully killed, so Hypatia cannot be SK unless imaginality/Charles is lying and therefore Mafia.)

Key point for the kids at home: from where I'm sitting, there's probably a Mafioso in {armlx, Grimmy}.

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP: Forgot Danny (John) in the "likely to be the Mafioso who made the D1 kill" list.

[Tarhalindur]

I'm going to total read armlx and Y (go back through past games and read them all to see if I can pick up on any supertells). In the meantime, I want to see more posting out of both of them - as things stand, I strongly suspect that at least one of them is scum, maybe both.

[Tarhalindur]

Sorry about the temporary absence, I'm moderately V/LA until the 15th (my school likes to have its finals a week later than usual).

Two questions I want to have resolved now:

Mod: In more traditional Mafia terminology, would Bruce be better described as a Weak Doctor (doctor who dies if he targets a member of an anti-town faction) or a Bodyguard/Martyr (dies in place of his target)? Also, what happens if Bruce is Mafia/Gangster and targets a fellow Mafioso?

Bruce is a Weak Doctor. If Bruce is scum, and he targets a scumbuddy, he is safe.

This is important; if Bruce is weak doctor (leaning towards this based on PM wording, but it's somewhat ambiguous), imaginality is largely confirmed town (can only be scum if Grimmy is scum, either of the lying or of the protected a buddy variety).

Mod: If Vicki (myself) is targeted by a roleblocker, is Vicki notified of this?

Yes.

I'd like to know this before I finalize my thoughts on how to best plan actions here.

Ways we can lose at the beginning of Day 2:

1) Mafia and SK each kill a different non-Mafia player (depending on the Mafia win condition, this may or may not require that one of the killed players be the SK).
2) John is Mafia and steals a non-Mafioso's vote, at least one player dies (either by lynch or by kill) before the beginning of tomorrow, and no kills/lynches hit Mafia before the beginning of tomorrow. (In this scenario, if only one kill goes through and it hits town, tomorrow ends in a forced no-lynch at best - in this case, SK likely targets John N3 and, by my initial analysis, the end state is contingent on whether the SK succeeds in this kill).

I considered No Lynch briefly, as it removes the possibility of scenario 1 provided that Mary/Rose nokills or her kill is stopped, but that still leaves us in a bad position.

I want to go over some scenarios to be sure, but I'm thinking we need to lynch Danny/John, because his role poses an immediate threat to the town. I also think we want to set up THREE possible sets of night actions - one for if our lynchee is town, one for if our lynchee is Mafia, one for if our lynchee is the SK.

Grimmy/Bruce needs careful handling if he's a weak doctor (want/need mod confirmation there) - three kills today/tonight is fatal to us, so if he's weak doctor we need to make sure he's protecting a townie. I'm leaning towards having Grimmy target either Tom or imaginality (depending on the outcome of the lynch) and having Tom watch Grimmy...

I seriously need to think this over. There's a part of me that's outright reminded of Quack Mafia, where I'm pretty sure the optimal play is to play as Mountainous...

[Tarhalindur]

Mod: I am V/LA until Friday.

I want to have time to look over things before we end day, and with finals week occuring that's not going to be happening until Friday or Saturday unless I'm lucky.

Duly noted.

[Tarhalindur]

I have SEVERE misgivings about any plan that leaves either of {John, Mary/Rose} unblocked tonight, let alone both - because the problem with waiting until tomorrow morning is, unless we hit Mafia today, there's a pretty good chance there WON'T be another morning. If we lynch Tina, we need to be damn sure she's Mafia... and I'm not sure about that yet. (I need to compare Y's play here to older games, at any rate.)

Moreover, I'm pretty sure we need to decide who Bruce targets before the end of the day. We CAN'T have him hit scum unless we lynch Mafia today; even if we can afford to lose Bruce, it's better for us that we know where his target was, since he may be able to function as a weak Cop investigation.

Problem is, I still haven't had time to fully think over an alternative. Best idea I have right now is the following:

We lynch John.

Richard stalks Bruce.
Bruce protects Vicki or Charles (his choice).
Tom watches Bruce.

Charles targets Mary Rose and vice versa.

Tina targets Vicki or Bruce (flips a coin).

Misty targets Charles.

Pros:
- John, if Mafia, cannot steal a Townie's vote.
- If Charles doesn't target Mary Rose, Mary Rose has a 50/50 shot of killing Charles
- Mary Rose is blocked (if the SK kill appears, Mary Rose is cleared of being the SK)
- If Richard is lying, he has a 50% chance of being called on it.
- If Ash is lying, he has a 50% chance of being called on it.
- If I'm lying, I have a 50% chance of being called on it.
- If Tina is lying, we should know (both of her possible targets are watched).
- If Misty is lying, we should know (Charles will be able to talk).

Biggest con I can think of: If Tina is scum, Tina can block Charles and open up a Mary/Rose shot. This may or may not autolose the game.

There may be other cons I can't think of. Comments would be appreciated.