Mini 778 - Inventor Mafia (OVER)


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Post Post #17 (isolation #0) » Thu Apr 23, 2009 9:30 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Vote: Empking


Come on, it's Empking!
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Post Post #54 (isolation #1) » Sat Apr 25, 2009 6:10 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

farside22 wrote:
zwetschenwasser wrote:
farside22 wrote:Oh no's Zwetshenwasser here.

vote: Zwetshenwasser

Trouble they name is Zwet. :lol:
You spelled my name wrong.
Vote: farside
OMG so did the mod

die mod scum die. :lol:
farside22 wrote:
ZEEnon wrote:
Empking wrote:For voting in red.
Get ready, all my votes will be formatted like that.
Empking is widely known for jumping on anything early and not let it go.

You have been warned.
You're not town.

Unvote, Vote: farside
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Post Post #94 (isolation #2) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 12:08 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

AceMarksman wrote:tar, how do you jump to this conclusion?
Wording, wording, wording. I did not jump to this conclusion, because that implies that my conclusion is not solid enough to be considered valid. There are two reasons at work here: intuition and a double check by checking past farside games.

The intuition comes into play because, when I looked at those two posts, my first thought was "those two posts DO NOT come from a townie". Given a number of my recent games, I'm willing to go with this - in Mafia 87, Medieval Mafia, and Mind Screw Gaiden I clicked onto a scum intuitively (Vi in 87, scotmany in Medieval, Isacc in Gaiden) and backed off when reading logically led to uncertainty, so I'm trying out what happens when I DON'T back off this game.

The double-check comes from a read of about 10 recent farside games - AFAICT, she's NEVER this jokey during the random vote stage.

Also, don't like the tone of your post at all, especially if I'm right on farside.
IGMEOY: AceMarksman
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Post Post #99 (isolation #3) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 8:59 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

AceMarksman wrote:I didn't mean to imply that you made a pre-mature conclusion, I just wanted to know why. Sorry if I offended you or anything :shrug:
Why tack on that apology at the end?
However, I don't like your mentality of latching on to a player and not letting go, despite being right about people early in the game. Giving an excuse for tunneling farside on page two?
1) I'll keep focusing on farside until I decide that someone else is more likely to be scum (either through farside playing pro-town or somebody else playing more anti-town), thank you very much.

2) Just because my primary scum candidate is farside at this time doesn't mean I won't look at other players. Case in point: you.

See, I REALLY don't like the concilatory tone here, especially not since the wording of your post implies that you find me at least somewhat scummy. Looks like a veiled attack (where you push the idea that a player is scummy while wording it to try to avoid getting noticed for it) to me.

FoS: AceMarksman
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Post Post #147 (isolation #4) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 6:31 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

farside22 wrote:
Tarhalindur wrote:
farside22 wrote:
zwetschenwasser wrote:
farside22 wrote:Oh no's Zwetshenwasser here.

vote: Zwetshenwasser

Trouble they name is Zwet. :lol:
You spelled my name wrong.
Vote: farside
OMG so did the mod

die mod scum die. :lol:
farside22 wrote:
ZEEnon wrote:
Empking wrote:For voting in red.
Get ready, all my votes will be formatted like that.
Empking is widely known for jumping on anything early and not let it go.

You have been warned.
You're not town.

Unvote, Vote: farside
Both statements were fact. One in jest as I copied a pasted the name from the mod list and 1 is a fact in my eyes if you ever read any game Emp in I have been you will see I feel this way about him for very common and well known reasons.
Obviously lead on a no tell lets see who followed and why.
Just because something is a statement of fact doesn't mean it's not scummy.

Why make these posts if you're town? While I see some content here, I don't see GAME content - and yes, there's a difference (see: IIoA).

Also, the tone of these posts is pinging my scumdar: making light of a vote on you/giving "friendly" info to another player?
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Post Post #149 (isolation #5) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 6:33 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

farside22 wrote:
Tarhalindur wrote:
AceMarksman wrote:tar, how do you jump to this conclusion?
Wording, wording, wording. I did not jump to this conclusion, because that implies that my conclusion is not solid enough to be considered valid. There are two reasons at work here: intuition and a double check by checking past farside games.

The intuition comes into play because, when I looked at those two posts, my first thought was "those two posts DO NOT come from a townie". Given a number of my recent games, I'm willing to go with this - in Mafia 87, Medieval Mafia, and Mind Screw Gaiden I clicked onto a scum intuitively (Vi in 87, scotmany in Medieval, Isacc in Gaiden) and backed off when reading logically led to uncertainty, so I'm trying out what happens when I DON'T back off this game.

The double-check comes from a read of about 10 recent farside games - AFAICT, she's NEVER this jokey during the random vote stage.
That is so not true. I have learned to relax and have more fun in random voting especially Zwet and Emp. Sorry not a policy lynch more of an anti-town persona. Also knowing a few players as i do in any game I have joke voted more often then not.
DGB vote in a game that was night 0 and she was still alive. I joked about her being scum since she was alive.
I was town in that game. so you conclusion lacks true meta on me.
Medieveal mafia I didn't care and I stated that umteeth times in the game.
1) I never said you didn't joke in other games. I said you're joking MORE here. There's a difference.
LeakingGoofball wrote:I feel the pressure on Farside is just
I personally feel that a lynch on zwet or emp is far better for the first day. So, to advocate this policy

I
Unvote: semioldguy
then I
Vote: Empking
Now this is the weirdest comment of the bunch. You feel the pressure on me is just, don't vote for me and don't say why it's just.
This post looks like someone attempting to scum hunt but doing it poorly

unvote:
vote: LeakingGoofball
Poor scumhunting is not a scumtell. Calling poor scumhunting a scumtell, however, IS a scumtell.
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Post Post #150 (isolation #6) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 6:34 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

ZazieR wrote:
Tar

Can you show those ten games you checked on which you based your Farside vote?
Note: Roughly ten games (hence the word about), no Open games included due to open setups often having early setup-breaking discussion.

Mini Theme 731: Speed Dating Smalltown is probably not the best example given that the Smalltown mechanic makes early game much more serious.
Mafia 88: Return to New Catania
Medieval Mafia - Yes, farside, of course I checked Medieval. You were jokey there for a short time, but you took far less time/posts to get serious (two posts, tops, as opposed to three here)
Mini Theme 717: Alpha Centauri Smalltown (again, Smalltown, so less reliable)
Mini Theme 715: Legends of Literature
Mini Theme 710: Kleptomaniac
Mafia 89: Revenge (not as useful as some due to farside being replaced early)
Mafia 85: Murder at the Bus Stop
Mafia 84: Crime in Cressario
Large Theme: Mind Screw Mafia 3 (naturally, although utility somewhat limited because farside was Jester at the time)
Mafia 82: International

Note: I think at least one of the Smalltown games came up because of an Empking read for XylBot, possibly both (both included both Empking and farside).

Vote Count:

AceMarksman (2) - Darox, Semioldguy
Darox (0) -
Empking (1) - LeakingGoofball
Farside22 (2) - Empking, Tarhalindur
Kabenon007 (0) -
LeakingGoofball (4) - LunaLouise, Zazier, ZEEnon, Farside22
LunaLouise (0) -
Semioldguy (2) - Zwetschenwasser, AceMarksman
Tarhalindur (0) -
Zazier (0) -
ZEEnon (1) - Kabenon007
Zwetschenwasser (0) -
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Post Post #151 (isolation #7) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 6:35 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

farside22 wrote:
Empking wrote:
farside22 wrote:
Now this is the weirdest comment of the bunch. You feel the pressure on me is just, don't vote for me and don't say why it's just.
This post looks like someone attempting to scum hunt but doing it poorly

unvote:
vote: LeakingGoofball
Am I reading this correctly? Are yoiu saying that LGB is scumhunting but because he's not very good at it you're voting him?
Poor means more like weak but I'm not arguing with you on word samanitics just vote for me like you always do Emp.
But isn't weak scumhunting still scumhunting?
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Post Post #203 (isolation #8) » Fri May 01, 2009 11:04 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Okay, first things first:
I have moderately limited access until May 15 due to university finals.
I should be able to play at full capacity, but I can't 100% guarantee it - if I drop off the map for a couple of days at a time, that's the reason.

Zeenon needs to post more before I can get a read on him (specifically, I want to see whether or not he starts actually posting *game content*).

Farside still hasn't done much other than jokes or defense - I want to see cases coming from her soon.

One of {Darox, AceMarksman} is scum - that doesn't look like a townie fight to me. Not sure which one yet, I need to look in depth.

ZazieR is off.

More coming soon.
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Post Post #210 (isolation #9) » Sat May 02, 2009 10:39 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Darox and ZazieR need to start posting longer cases.

Mod: Please prod Leaking Goofball.
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Post Post #211 (isolation #10) » Sat May 02, 2009 10:43 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

farside22 wrote:
ZazieR wrote:
Farside wrote:I don't but there is very little I go on with meta and people. Some people meta is justified while others are mostly all over the place and I can't say that meta is ever really accurate.
Kevin showed me your post which mentioned me in Medieval Mafia when you posted it. This does however show that you use meta, and Mini 731 also disproves your statement. LAL?

FoS Farside



@Ace: Post 154?
Highlight and underline in bold some people and some situations.
Gut read says this justification is contrived, but I'll do a second farside meta read when I have time in order to double-check.

More importantly, farside: All of your posts have been either random posts or defense. Who do you suspect, and why? Give detailed reasons, please.
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Post Post #212 (isolation #11) » Sat May 02, 2009 10:45 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

My, my, my, we may have somebody scummier than farside!
AceMarksman wrote:
farside wrote:Emp he needs to come with a warning if you can't tell by my post I'm not a fan. Anyone who never played should be warned of his erratic behavoir.
As for the games you pointed too you saying 3 joke post is too much!
God your worse the empking. Do I really need to go looking at all my games that ended especially MM if you see a patern I don't care in any game right now. I'm typing and doing my best but seriously I have 5 games I'm in and only 3 or getting any attention. What's that say about my meta?
It means I'm losing interest in mafia. Here's a clue take 2 their free. Oh look another joke I must be scum.
I'm hanging on to what I can but the idea of just quiting all my games is their in my thoughts. I can't feel the interest like I used to. I don't know why and I don't know where it came from so I'm just dealing with it the best I can right now. If it means a few extra jokes, bitch about players and blah comments then that's what I'm going to do so I don't have to be replaced.
This seems rather forced with hints of AtE.
1) What is AtE an acronym for?

2) Considering that you unvoted about 12 hours before you posted this post and that you're implying that you found farside scummy, why didn't you vote farside?
AceMarksman wrote:Oh, no not that one. *shrug*

I have learned to not care about impulsive zwet votehops. Life's much easier that way.
So your response to a vote is... to make light of it/ridicule it?

Unvote, Vote: AceMarksman
FoS: farside22

AceMarksman wrote:
semioldguy wrote:
AceMarksman wrote:Substantial post coming in about 10 hours.
Where is your substantial post? You were around at the time you said you would be making it, making other posts in this game, yet you didn't make this substantial post or even bother mentioning it.
Sorry, I've been busy studying for AP's. I've been spreading out my thoughts through smaller posts in all of my games (including this one) to save time.

ZEE has been acting rather wierd. His posts have been rather opportunistic and jumpy. I would like a fuller explanation of his vote, if the above isn't what he was referring to. ZEEnon, was what I quoted the "catch" you were referring to?

I also want Darox to explain why he voted me seemingly without looking back to see what ZEEnon was talking about. It seems really opportunistic to me, and his unvote and vote on ZEEnon look like scum realizing that he made a mistake and covering his tracks.
This looks contrived and wishy-washy.

Second paragraph: Note that AceMarkman refers to zeenon as "weird" instead of "scummy", and how he makes it really easy to backtrack. That's wishy-washy.

Third paragraph: "seemingly", "seems". Again, note the wishy-washy, people.

Moreover, AceMarksman, why weren't you voting after this post, when you had expressed suspicion of 2-3 players after your last unvote?
AceMarksman wrote:
vote: Darox
Answer the question and this will be removed. Just because something is obvious to you doesn't mean it's obvious to the rest of us. Enlighten us please.
Voting because somebody refuses to answer a question instead of because you think they're scum
after failing to vote for at least two players when you said that you thought that they were at least somewhat scummy
? That doesn't look town to me at ALL.

AceMarksman: Please PBPA the player you think is most likely to be scum.
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Post Post #231 (isolation #12) » Mon May 04, 2009 8:26 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Hi Mastin!

Funny you'd mention meta, since I've been trying something new over the last couple of days (I've had time, but I've been using to investigate things for this game rather than post): total isolation reads. In other words, I've been going back and reading a player's posts in isolation in EVERY game they have ever been in in which their alignment has been revealed, seeing what their alignment actually was, and figuring out what that player's supertells, if any, are.

I've finished or mostly finished reads on four players so far: ZazieR (finished on Sunday before post 210), AceMarksman, farside22, and Darox.

ZazieR has a fairly clear supertell (I was running about 80%-90% accurate on her during the isolation reads), but it takes her some time to really exhibit it. I'm not going to tell you exactly what that tell is - not yet, at least - because I don't want to give ZazieR the easy path to trying to subvert meta.

AceMarksman has NO games where his alignment has been revealed as scum, which makes him harder to meta. I've got a lean on him based on past meta, but I want to see him post some more to be sure.

Farside22's playstyle is protean enough that she has no meta at all - she's stated in the past that she likes to experiment, but I think she may also be actively working to make herself difficult if not impossible to read. Her most recent shift (from about three small games that finished about when Medieval did) WAS a fairly aggressive playstyle (from an earlier lurkish one), which is not consistent with her play here, but I wouldn't lynch based on that. I DO want her dead before endgame unless we can get rolebased on her, just like any other player I consider largely unreadable. The question is, when should we do that?

I need to go through Darox's past games with a finer-toothed comb - I'm pretty sure there IS a supertell in there, but I haven't found it yet.

I'll be looking over more players as I get time.
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Post Post #233 (isolation #13) » Mon May 04, 2009 10:03 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

AceMarksman wrote:@ tar:
1)AtE is an acronym for Apeal to Emotion.
Ah, now I see. And I see the AtE in that Farside post too.
2) I don't find Farside particularly scummy, just that one post rubbed me the wrong way.
Okay, that makes sense.
@wishy washy: I tend to use seemingly a lot. I don't know exactly what a player is thinking when they make a post, I only know what it
seems
like they were doing. It isn't because I'm trying to be on the fence about a player, it's just how I write.
1) How did I make my statement on ZEEnon easy to backtrack on? I don't see it.
AceMarksman wrote:ZEE has been acting rather wierd. His posts have been rather opportunistic and jumpy. I would like a fuller explanation of his vote,
if the above isn't what he was referring to. ZEEnon, was what I quoted the "catch" you were referring to?
The underlined part is what I saw as a potential means for backtracking.
2) Why are you pushing me to make a vote? Previously in other games I have been throwing around my vote recklessly, and I'm trying to stop this.
Why is throwing your vote around recklessly a problem? See, I'm a fan of voting the player you think is most likely to be scum unless an extenuating circumstance (read: LyLo or similar) says otherwise. It's too easy for scum to get away with "I'm going to push this wagon without voting, so that I won't be held accountable by voting analysis".

Note to self for future games: it might work better if I didn't comment on that tell until Day 2, when scum have already had a chance to do just that. Silly Tarhalindur, remember to wait to capitalize on the scumtells.

Your last point is completely unfair. How are you saying that I don't find Darox scum? I've been getting scum vibes from him the entire game (requested PBPA coming shortly). Please note the case I made against him earlier in the game after his opportunistic vote right after the RVS.
1) The reason you stated for you vote when you voted Darox was that he failed to answer a question; furthermore, you said in that post that you would unvote Darox if he answered your question:
AceMarksman wrote:
vote: Darox
Answer the question and this will be removed.
Just because something is obvious to you doesn't mean it's obvious to the rest of us. Enlighten us please.
I have difficulty seeing how this is consistent with VOTING Darox because you think he's scum. (I
can
think of one way this makes sense if you're town, but I'm not going to reveal it until after you post your own explanation.)
Also you seem to find me scummy for not voting a player I make a post against, but then find me scummy for voting? how does this work?
Because your stated reason for voting was to force Darox to answer a question, NOT because you thought he was scum (it may have been A reason, but it was not the STATED reason).

Again, I can think of a way this makes sense (took me a bit to think of it, too), but I'll wait for you to explain further before I post it.

Response to ZazieR coming ASAP.
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Post Post #234 (isolation #14) » Mon May 04, 2009 10:08 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Mastin wrote:I would highly recommend, for your sanity, Tar, to not try on me. There's a reason I've been nominated for the title Unabridged, and a good portion of that comes from my older games. In more recent times, I've learned to hold back somewhat, but still, if you plan on reading all games where their alignment is known, bad idea to do anything but skim over mine.

Ace: Darn you having not been scum in any completed games. D: That makes my job all that much harder. :P
Still, though, I'll do a check of his games.
1) My procedure on reads is to skim first, read more closely if necessary. And my skimming/gut read has been more accurate than the close read/logic read of late (Vi/Mafia 87, scotmany12/Medieval, Isacc/Mind Screw Gaiden all come to mind).

2) Sanity? *breaks down laughing*

So no, I'm not seeing any problem here at all. :P
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Post Post #235 (isolation #15) » Mon May 04, 2009 10:17 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

ZazieR wrote:
Tar wrote:Second paragraph: Note that AceMarkman refers to zeenon as "weird" instead of "scummy", and how he makes it really easy to backtrack. That's wishy-washy.
So you do note this, and mention it as scummy. But you didn't mention the easy backtracking of this post
Why's that?
Because I read it as a justification - a contrived one, yes, but still a justification instead of a backtrack (note that her post was explaining how her previous comment was consistent with her play in recent games). See post 211:
Tarhalindur wrote:
farside22 wrote:
ZazieR wrote:
Farside wrote:I don't but there is very little I go on with meta and people. Some people meta is justified while others are mostly all over the place and I can't say that meta is ever really accurate.
Kevin showed me your post which mentioned me in Medieval Mafia when you posted it. This does however show that you use meta, and Mini 731 also disproves your statement. LAL?

FoS Farside



@Ace: Post 154?
Highlight and underline in bold some people and some situations.
Gut read says this justification is contrived, but I'll do a second farside meta read when I have time in order to double-check.

More importantly, farside: All of your posts have been either random posts or defense. Who do you suspect, and why? Give detailed reasons, please.
ZazieR wrote:
Tar wrote:Darox and ZazieR need to start posting longer cases.
I've stated many reasons already why I think Ace is scum. I'll post them in the following post then if you mean that. But why did you ask us?
Because I'm trying to get a solid read on the two of you (especially since you're both pretty damn important to how I'm reading the game state), and I haven't seen enough of you yet to consider my read solid. I have a weak read on both of you, but I'm not going to say what it is just yet (I fully intend to do so before the end of Day 1, and I don't want Day 1 to end before I feel comfortable doing so) - that would be counterproductive right now.
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Post Post #236 (isolation #16) » Mon May 04, 2009 10:18 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

ZazieR wrote:
Tar wrote:Third paragraph: "seemingly", "seems". Again, note the wishy-washy, people.
Zaz wrote:I don't like post 122 (Ace)
It
seems
like you were trying to test the waters of a SOG wagon before committing yourself to it.
What's your reason for not mentioning my post, while I also used 'seem'?

Strange that you only attack Ace for 'backtracking', but not me or Farside for her post as I already said. Why's that?
Maybe yours didn't feel nearly as wishy-washy as his did.

Or, I decided that now wasn't the time to bring up that post.

One of these is true. Probably. I'll elaborate on which later.
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Post Post #270 (isolation #17) » Thu May 07, 2009 4:57 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Finished total reads on Zwet and Mastin ( :P ).

Zwet: Difficult to read (being scum on only a few occasions doesn't help) but not impossible, there's a few tells there. (Zwet's commented himself - can't remember if it was here or in another game - that his average post length is INVERSELY proportional to his likelihood of being scum, and AFAICT he's not lying about that. Beware of meta subversion, however.)

There's one other pretty good tell that Zwet shows, but I'm not sure whether or not I can call it yet. I'm watching. (And I'll consider identifying what that tell is when I'm confident that I can call its presence or absence.)

Mastin: Extremely verbose, extremely analytical regardless of alignment. Has a supertell that is very similar to ZazieR's - I want to see some major posts out of him soon, so that I can get a solid read. (I'm not going to tell you what it is now, of course - I'm not going to allow meta subversion before I have a good read.)

Now, where the hell did everyone go?
Mod, can we have a MASSPROD?
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Post Post #271 (isolation #18) » Thu May 07, 2009 5:03 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

LunaLouise wrote:<snip>

Tarhalindur
and
ZazieR
seem to be the only ones genuinely questioning and hunting.


But...
In post 236 Tarhalindur wrote:
ZazieR wrote: What's your reason for not mentioning my post, while I also used 'seem'?

Strange that you only attack Ace for 'backtracking', but not me or Farside for her post as I already said. Why's that?
Maybe yours didn't feel nearly as wishy-washy as his did.

Or, I decided that now wasn't the time to bring up that post.

One of these is true. Probably. I'll elaborate on which later.
Probably ? What ?? I don't know what or why you are trying to hide, but I don't like it.

Saying that you would rather not say something because it will influence the person you are looking into is one thing, but speaking in riddles while stating that they might or might not be true is
purposeful misleading
.
MFoS: Tarhalindur



<snip>
I think that "obfuscating" would be a better choice of words than "misleading", but that's a minor nitpick. Yes, I'm trying to hide my actual meaning. That's kinda the POINT - I'm hiding something and being very open about it: specifically, I'm unwilling to reveal my thoughts on Zazie's post at this time, because bringing it up now would ruin its potential effectiveness.

I WILL explain later, as I promised in that post. I don't want to see Day 1 ended before I do.

(If you want meta, check my play in Day 4 of Medieval, where I sat on a good deal on information until I was confident that I had extracted as much supporting information as possible.)
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Post Post #324 (isolation #19) » Tue May 12, 2009 8:49 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Sorry for the delay, I'm a bit short on time and Majora's Mask had been taking up what time I had.
AceMarksman wrote:PBPA of Darox. (post numbers reference posts in isolation)

post 0: Right off the bat, Darox comes and appeals to the town's emotions. He votes me, calls me obv scum, and then calls the town stupid for not doing the same. Notice he posts no case against me, and voices no objections to anything I have said.
post-1: It takes questioning by Zazier in order for Darox to make a case against me. It's very contrived, and I don't want to have to go back point by point against it. If you wish, here is my defense against/attack of it. Notice, tar the
"IGMEO Darox
at the end.
posts 2, 3, and 4: Here Darox does nothing but sling dirt and insults at people. He doesn't refute my defense/attacks of his posts, instead he calls me stupid (post 2). He also slams empking with a post critisizing his reading comprehension skills (post 3), and then fluffs in four.
Posts 6, 7, and 8: These posts offer more of the same. Instead of presenting cases against his main suspect (me), he just starts smearing people.
Posts 11 and 12: here is where Darox's playstle takes a turn for the scummiest. To refresh your memory, ZEEnon votes me here and Darox follows him without even checking to see why. This is inherantly scummy, but when I ask him about it, Darox refuses to answer, instead he calls me stupid (again).

I've got to go eat breakfast now, analysis of this coming later.
I'm not nearly as sold on Darox being scum as you are - from what I remember of my last read, this kind of play is a null tell for Darox, and I have seen townies be this confrontational before (Jazzmyn in Mafia 87 comes to mind due to her constant "just go back and read my posts again" in that game). I have a null read on him right now, and a few (3-4) better targets in mind.

That said, the case IS a reasonable one.
AceMarksman wrote:is this discussion, in fact, getting us anywhere?

I would like tar to come back and see my case on darox.

Moreover, I would like Darox to answer to that case, and not just call it stupid.
1) No, I don't think this discussion will get us anywhere without adding some spark to it, and the fact that you just brought that up is a MAJOR point in your favor.

2) See above. I'd still like some answers to my last set of questions, though.

3) Darox, I would like to see point-by-point rebuttal of AceMarksman's case, showing exactly HOW his case on you is invalid. Now, please.

In other news, AceMarksman is probably town.

Unvote
for now.
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Post Post #325 (isolation #20) » Tue May 12, 2009 8:59 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Never mind, I know exactly where that vote is going:
farside22 wrote:Done:

ZWET post 130: what? I don't get what you are saying here.
zwet post 132: Could you do with a little less childishness here. I feel like this is a no you comment. (roll eyes)
ace: post 139: why didn't you look at your PM for confirmation before posting this?
tar post 150: you do know that a few games you pointed out I was scum so if I wasn't really joking as much in any of those games how is my joking scummy?
tar post 151: no. It's fake. If i posted crap and made a flub reason for voting would you consider that scum hunting?
zazie post 159: How do you think it was a misunderstanding. Why do you think that Ace didn't look at his PM to confirm if their was instructions or not.
LGB post 182: Note to self didn't expand on his vote or reasoning for vote any further and stands by a policy lynch rather then scum hunting.
I'd like to know why tar points to only 3 people to make cases. There are plenty of people I found who either vote erraticly (zwet) post and vote with back and forth comments that make me hit my head on the desk (emp and darox) and little to no comments for others (LGB) and since I know who LGB actual is yay I expect a bit more just like people expect more from me.
mastin post 245 and others: Why do you think the number of post actually mean anything. I have seen town post less then stellar comments. I have seen scum come in strong and agressive so please explain how any of that is not a null tell.
By the way Izzy is my alt.
zwet: post 259 OMG I agree with you. Call's hell ask if everything is okay down there.
Luna post 262: has some obseravations but I really don't see who she thinks is scum in this post. Why 2 FOS and no votes or strong conclusions?


I just realized Emp has been really quiet this game. Darox is all over the place for me and I can't get a solid read on him or zwet.
Mastin's big post was meh and reason's were meh. I can't tell you the number of times I see scum or town post different from day to day or game to game. It really isn't a big tell in my book.
So far LGB still leads the pack as my biggest suspect based on his policy lynch comment and lack of scum hunting that has gone no where.
zwet and darox running circles as they are is in my highly questionable category.
Ace's comment and saying he didn't check his PM could be a scum tactic to find information about what the PM's say. I don't like it.
I haven't seen much but question for Zazie and although aggressive I feel it is missing something when I read her post.
This is NOT a town PBPA. It's an IIoA variant, one of the first ones I identified (and one I should probably identify as an independent tell) - the fine art of saying nothing at all in a few hundred words.

More importantly, compare farside's conclusions to the conclusions in this PBPA from Medieval Mafia:
hasdgfas, Medieval Mafia (Mafioso) wrote:first off
unvote

I want a clean slate as I read what's happened since Thursday.


Post 764 - kore: what's wrong with a case "out of thin air"? I realized I had been getting bad vibes from kmd all game, and decided to go look at him a bit closer.
Post 771 - qwints: wait, so what? That's a horrible reason for a softclaim, especially when it does the exact opposite thing that you're trying to do.
Post 774 - Yos: I agree with Yosarian2.
Post 781 - DGB: So one post you like is better than everything else he's done?
Post 788 - Caboose: Why isn't it scummy?
Post 795 - Jebus: *twitch*
Post 800 - scot: stark's not posting at all. How would he be able to jump from one popular wagon to another?
Post 809 - Xyl: Why is this a higher priority than qwints, who actually is being scummy?
Post 826 - Xyl: I really don't like this post by Xyl, because he's blaming someone else for something that's completely his fault.
Post 846 - camn: Got any reasons for that or just throwing it out there?
Post 869 - tajo: Thanks for noticing I was V/LA, tajo, it's not like I was lurking. I didn't post
anywhere
from Thursday-Tuesday. Also, if he is scum, we shouldn't let qwints survive to following days.
Post 882 - tajo: It seems to me like this is saying that you know qwints is town. Why is that? Would you rather lynch someone who's not going to be useful in the future or someone who will actually do stuff that we can find out if they're scum later?
Post 901 - kmd: Hmm, I dislike the "no one can look at your voting records" argument. I find looking at "voting records" is talked about as being a better idea than it actually is. Looking at everything else is usually smarter, with looking at vote
context
being the best idea.
Post 912 - qwints: this doesn't say anything. Can you actually say something in this game?
Post 917 - sam: Saying that you're not going to read Xyl's posts is anti-town. What if you're in endgame with him and one other person?
Post 926 - sam: Not reading a certain person's posts is really anti-town.
Post 943 - Xyl: Why? what's
wrong
right with qwints?
Post 963 - farside: Is that really all you have to say?
Post 973 - qwints: How have you not been lynched yet?
Post 984 - Xyl: This seems like a possible lead-in to an attack on Yos. Xyl, why'd you feel it necessary to make this comment?
Post 988 - kmd: What is interesting about this? This seems to be yet another inane comment that you're making too many of in this whole game.'
Post 1004 - Xyl: Why? What has he done to make you think that?
Post 1006 - tajo: Dang it tajo, I was V/LA. Did you not catch that when multiple people said it?
Post 1010 - Xyl: What evidence against him was weak? Why is a fast wagon a sign of the wagoned player being town as opposed to pretty obvious scum?
Post 1019 - sam: A) I've been V/LA, B) I'm not scum, C) the rest of the town finds other people scummier
Post 1022 - Xyl: I'm not really a big fan of pulling out your own meta as a defense. meta should be a defense looked at by others to try to figure out if you're scum or town.
Post 1027 - Rogueben: I think qwints has the most value at this point. Jebus has been replaced, so I'm giving the replacement time to let me get a good read on him.

conclusions:
farside is way too quiet this game. I've never seen her this quiet. Feels off to me.
I don't like Xyl/Kore claming their own meta as their defense, although Kore feels better to me as she was attempting to explain why she uses her meta, but I don't remember seeing too much from Xyl besides "I always do this, so it's not scummy". If I'm missing something though, feel free to point it out. Not to mention that he tried to blame the derailing of the qwints wagon on Kore when nobody else even cared and he was the only one to unvote qwints because of it.
FoS: Xyl

I'm not a fan of tajo trying to build my wagon while I was V/LA, but I can somewhat understand it.
Looking back at kmd's case after some time away from the game, it's not as bad as I originally thought, but it was still a bit difficult to find the points.
qwints really needs to die. Not going to vote immediately as A) I want a votecount to see what it looks like and B) I want people to actually read this before night.
I can't explicitly identify why farside's conclusions remind me so strongly of hasdgfas's conclusions in this PBPA, much less put it in words, but I am intuitively certain that these are both scum PBPAs. And I trust my intuition.

Vote: farside22


Vote Count:

AceMarksman (3) - Semioldguy, Lobstermania, Zazier
Darox (1) - AceMarksman
Empking (1) - LeakingGoofball
Farside22 (1) - Tarhalindur
LeakingGoofball (1) - Farside22
Lobstermania (2) - Mastin, Darox
LunaLouise (0) -
Mastin (0) -
Semioldguy (0) -
Tarhalindur (0) -
Zazier (0) -
Zwetschenwasser (1) - Empking

AceMarksman is V/LA through the 14th.
Tarhalindur is on V/LA through the 15th.
LunaLouise is V/LA 15th-25th.
RBT is V/LA 20th-27th
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Post Post #326 (isolation #21) » Tue May 12, 2009 9:06 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

LeakingGoofball wrote:I sort of agree with semioldguy. But I think he has underestimated the power of activity sheets. If we cross reference that with metas we can deduce who's scum quite early.
Here's a nice equation for you:

Weasely language + Mafia theory + no sign of scumhunting =/= Town alignment.

Care to tell me who you think is scum, and why?

FoS: LeakingGoofball


In somewhat related news:

Mastin has about three or four days to convince me he's town (I'll explain WHY I currently think he's likely scum at that time - what I'm seeing right now MIGHT be explained by inactivity upon replacing in, but I have my doubts).

FoS: Mastin


ZazieR needs to become considerably more active, and fast... because she HASN'T exhibited her town supertell yet, and I'm becoming increasingly dubious that this is because she hasn't had enough time to show it.

FoS: ZazieR
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Post Post #385 (isolation #22) » Sat May 16, 2009 11:29 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Mastin wrote:It sucks having so many players V/LA. :/
The Mod wrote:Tarhalindur is on V/LA through the 15th.
It's the sixteenth.
Prod?
I had absolutely no chance to post yesterday, and I tend to post late at night anyways.

Also, you're not scumhunting and your posts are IIoA (your supertell). That means you're scum and you need to die.

Farside can wait.

Unvote, Vote: Mastin
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Post Post #387 (isolation #23) » Sat May 16, 2009 11:35 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

ZazieR wrote:
Tar wrote:ZazieR has a fairly clear supertell (I was running about 80%-90% accurate on her during the isolation reads), but it takes her some time to really exhibit it. I'm not going to tell you exactly what that tell is - not yet, at least - because I don't want to give ZazieR the easy path to trying to subvert meta.
'Being very stubborn when she thinks is right. As she knows she isn't right when she's scum, she isn't as fierce regarding her suspicions. So as town, Zazie mostly attacks the player who she thinks is scum, and as scum, she'll keep everyone in mind.'
Amirite?
Not quite how I'd phrase it, but close enough that keeping it hidden is pointless: the supertell is more the length/depth of the attack (less involved attacks as scum can be due either to focusing on more players or due to IIoA).
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Post Post #459 (isolation #24) » Tue May 19, 2009 2:05 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Anti-prod.

I should be able to make a full post later tonight.
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Post Post #470 (isolation #25) » Fri May 22, 2009 8:36 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Empking wrote:Tar; What's happened to you?
Somewhat lowered access, plus trying to keep up in a second, ongoing game that's more active than this one (and failing...), plus having to double-check my Mastin read after certain recent events.

Quick thoughts:

- While, after review, Mastin is correct that Newb 688 isn't necessarily representative of him, he DOES have an ongoing game where he has been mod-revealed by death reveal as Mafia. I'm not sure what Riceballtail's policy is towards information from death reveals in ongoing games (some mods allow the use of such information, most don't)
- I'm loathe to bet on Mastin's alignment, mostly because I hate bets and tend to be EXTREMELY conservative when anything tangible is on the line, partly because I have a little nagging voice at the back of my head saying that Mastin *could* be town given his last two pages of play.
- Certain parts of Mastin's defense, at least, are shaky: I wouldn't have called IIoA on him in Bleach Mafia, as he was scumhunting in addition to setup speculation et. al. there (the tell is called Information INSTEAD of Analysis for a reason). In addition, given my own thoughts on scumtells, his claim that meta can't be used to find anything scummy that he is doing is exceedingly dangerous (as far as I'm concerned, he's effectively claiming that he is NEVER scummy and that no case can be built on him ever, because scumtells boil down to deviations from town meta). I need to make a full assessment of his defense, but lack the time right now.
- Mastin's play in the last two pages or so is considerably more pro-town than his play beforehand, with caveats which I will not elaborate on as they relate to another ongoing game. He's building cases, at least. I'll check back on his past games again and see if they are of comparable detail to his past games (and also whether his suspects in finished games where he's town tend to be players that are attacking him).
- Regardless, I am unvoting Mastin for now, entirely for policy reasons. I am severely uncomfortable with L-1 in a game with 10 or more players (and even with less, except that in smaller games forcing claims at L-2 has its own problems).

Unvote


Mastin, you're at L-2. It's time for you to claim everything you do know about your role - boxes, instructions, all of it.
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Post Post #481 (isolation #26) » Sun May 24, 2009 11:11 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

semioldguy wrote:I don't really understand what the purpose of the role claim is, or why breadcrumbing the color box that you have would be helpful in determining you as town. You have a brown box, so what, it doesn't matter what color any of our main boxes are because we all have a different color anyway. Until we have a way to link box color to scum or town, the box color doesn't make you any more or less likely to be the alignment you claim to be.

@Tarhalindur
Why did you want Mastin to claim and what do you think of his claim now that he has?
Why ask for the claim? To give Mastin an opportunity to slip up by showing information he shouldn't have had (or be really stupid and, say, claim a box other than his own), as well as another reason that I will elaborate on shortly.

Assessment of claim: I'll reserve judgment until I hear the response to a couple of questions of mine (that means I WON'T be revoting immediately, Empking). To wit:

Mastin, in your claim you mention white and black subboxes. Are these boxes hypothetical, or do they actually appear in your box PM? Additionally, if the latter, why do you think that they are the two most likely boxes other than the brown box to work?

lobstermania: How many instructions were you provided in your role PM? I have a reason for asking, which I will elaborate on after you answer.
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Post Post #490 (isolation #27) » Tue May 26, 2009 7:11 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

ZEEnon wrote:
ZazieR wrote:Then why didn't you mention it up until now? And you still haven't answered why you FoSed Ace.
I suspect AceMarksman for the same reason I voted.
He seemed to support the policy lynch on zwetschenwasser or empking, while I stand firmly against policy lynches.
_____________________________

My PM mentions instructions as well, yet I am not provided with any.
I think the instructions will be provided to us during the night after we choose which one we want to use.
lobstermania wrote:
Tarhalindur wrote:lobstermania: How many instructions were you provided in your role PM? I have a reason for asking, which I will elaborate on after you answer.
I was given one large box with seven smaller boxes inside it. The only box with instructions attached is the same color as the large box.

Also AceMarksman, I never said Mastin's box color was the reason for believing his claim. I'm not sure why you reached that conclusion since the color of his box is irrelevant at the moment. My question to him was why/how he came up with the percentages that certain colored boxes would work.
Okay, THAT's very interesting. Does anybody else see the rather large difference between these two claims (from zeenon and his replacement lobstermania, respectively)?
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Post Post #894 (isolation #28) » Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:35 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Death be a real trip, mon.

Okay, enough silly shout outs. No need to reread the thread, either - did so overnight, and conversation's been pretty much dead since N1 anyways.

The most important facts at this moment are the following:
- Tarhalindur (setup breaker) is in the game and confirmed town.
- This is effectively a Smalltown setup.

We are massclaiming all actions we have made, NOW, and we are doing so in an order that the only hard-confirmed townie chooses. For reference, I would be that hard-confirmed townie, and the order is as follows:

Gorrad (due ENTIRELY to the play of his predecessor ZazieR)
Beyond_Birthday
Melikefood
Semioldguy
Stethoscope
Empking (softconfirmed town, see side notes for details)
Tarhalindur (hardconfirmed town)

Remember, you need to claim your action for N1, N2, and N3 in one easy-to-spot post (some of you have claimed N1 action; reclaim it anyways).

Side notes:
- I am all-but-confirmed to be the Mafia kill for N1 (I've never seen a player other than myself willing to NK zwet as scum, and MonkeyMan - and therefore farside22, who he replaced, and who I was extraordinarily suspicious of D1 - flipped scum).
- Empking is softconfirmed town (he claimed the zwetschenwasser kill, and I know of no other player willing to scumkill zwet*; more importantly, MonkeyMan tried to counterclaim him and flipped scum**)
- I have thoughts about that Amished kill, but you don't get to hear them until we are done massclaiming.

* - this is a mistake: zwetschenwasser is a FAR better player than he is given credit for, IMO, and he's pretty much unlynchable from a scum perspective given that lynching him tends to take out 2-3 Mafiosos in its wake.
** - It's possible that the Mafia controlled both N1 kills and MonkeyMan lied about his N1 target to try to falseclear Empking. However, that's the only scenario I see where Empking is scum, and the other possibilities (MonkeyMan was trying to counterclaim Empking to get him lynched, and MonkeyMan ALSO tazed zwet N1) - both imply that Empking is town, in the latter case because I find it doubtful that scum would doublekill zwetschenwasser (and three N1 scum kills is doubtful regardless).
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Post Post #897 (isolation #29) » Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:56 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

semioldguy wrote:I have no big problem with the claim order (I'd prefer Empking before Stephoscope only because I know Stephoscope is town for sure).
I want Stethoscope to claim before you find the possibility of you running a gambit to clear Ace/Stethoscope more likely than the possibility that Empking is scum, given the game state. (You're ahead of Stethoscope in the claim order because it's possible scum would trueclaim an investigation on a townie to try to clear themselves.)

Gorrad's been V/LA for a while, but a prod may still be in order.
Mod: Please prod Gorrad with a sharp, pointy stick.
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Post Post #901 (isolation #30) » Tue Aug 25, 2009 6:01 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Stephoscope wrote:I am fine with it--ever since I replaced in, I've been operating under the assumption that I'm clear, but if not that's fine too. I would just appreciate a little explanation as to why a massclaim is a good idea here.
You're not quite clear because I've seen "X is scum only if Y is scum" end up with X and Y scum in Smalltown before (Mini 779). You are, however, mostly clear (but I consider Empking more cleared and I'm modconfirmed town).

We're massclaiming because:
1) This setup is functionally a Smalltown setup, and generally accepted procedure is to massclaim each day in Smalltown. (Shouldn't be much of a surprise - there was a partial massclaim on both Day 2 and Day 3 here, halted in each case only by failure to claim or similar._
2) I'm Tarhalindur. For examples of what I can do as town given a late massclaim, see Mafia 75 and Medieval Mafia (and I'm sure I'm missing a few games).
Massclaim is good for me, and if you're town what's good for me is good for you.

Important note: If we can softclear one more player, we should be in very good position to win the game (only things that would cost us the win would be a revived scum or the scum getting bonus Tazers).
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Post Post #910 (isolation #31) » Sat Aug 29, 2009 9:16 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

melikefood wrote:I go next right?
Or do we wait for Gorrad more?
Thinking.

I'd prefer we force a claim from Gorrad if possible (prodded RBT to try to get that Gorrad prod - I don't think RBT ever sent that prod).

That said, we *know* Gorrad is paying enough attention to the thread to send in a night action (as RBT just confirmed as such) and is not posting. I'm considering just forcing a claim out of everybody else and then lynching Gorrad PERIOD (I've seen Gorrad as town before. Multiple times. I've never seen him lurk like this - he's usually every bit as much of a game driver as I am).

Okay, don't claim yet. If Gorrad hasn't claimed by Monday, then go ahead and claim.
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Post Post #911 (isolation #32) » Sat Aug 29, 2009 9:18 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Beyond_Birthday wrote:Since it's been about 36 hours since the prod with no in game response, I'm going to go ahead and claim:
N1: I stated day 1 that I had some sweet office bling. I did nothing night one because my box was full of paper clips so I made jewelry
N2: I put together a stasis cell. So, I gain the ability to protect/roleblock any player. I used it on Ducky (who is duckduck, died as monkeyman).
N3: I put together a second stasis cell. I used this one on Melikefood.
I want you to explain your reasoning for your Night 2 and Night 3 choices. NOW.
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Post Post #915 (isolation #33) » Sat Aug 29, 2009 2:39 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Gorrad wrote:Ah! Just realized, I should clarify:

My mod told me my boxes, and which one was used. I was not given the target of the tazer, and assume it was Tar. I've already sent a PM requesting clarification.
I await the clarification with bated breath.

Melikefood, now would be a good time for you to claim.
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Post Post #918 (isolation #34) » Sat Aug 29, 2009 8:04 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Gorrad wrote:Yup! N1 choice was you.
So... you just claimed performing what I'm pretty damn sure was the N1 Mafia kill for reasons I explained on the last page, and you were already my top scum choice even without taking night actions into consideration (ZazieR wasn't playing like Zazietown and her actions towards farside are scummy beyond belief given the farside/MonkeyMan flip).

Like hell you're town. Unless I see something really compelling, consider yourself lynched as soon as massclaim is over.

But I still want massclaim finished before we lynch anyone. We want as little information as possible to die tonight.
Beyond_Birthday wrote:N2: A majority of Ducky's posts were useless filler and the previous owner of the role was farside, who I expected to be stronger than she was playing. My goal was to role block the ducky.


N3: Hmm... mix feelings. I really felt unsure about melikefood and I figured he was a decent target if he was scum (roleblock) or town (protection) since I didn't get much of a "he's a power role" feel. (I realize no one is really a power role in this setup every night due to N1, but he seemed like he didn't have much power anyway. I hope I read him right if he is town.)
While I disagree with your assessment of how to use a jailkeep ability (I'm of the opinion that jailkeep should be used on the strongest analyst alive that you have a town read on, since for a good analyst loss of a night action is less damaging than dying would be), I can see this logic coming from a townie.

Still not completely sold on you being town, mind you, but it's plausible at least.

-----

Current plan:

I'm changing the rest claim order in light of Gorrad's claim (and the fact he replaced ZazieR) to the following:

- melikefood
- someoldguy
- Empking
- Stethoscope
- Tarhalindur

Even though I'm damn sure that Gorrad is scum, I don't want to lynch him immediately. We should finish the massclaim first. (In a vacuum, scum are probably Gorrad and melikefood, with Beyond Birthday fairly likely to be scum instead of the latter and an outside chance of someoldguy or Empking being scum.)

Also, I'd appreciate whatever protective abilities you can send my way tonight. I am confirmed town, after all.
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Post Post #925 (isolation #35) » Mon Aug 31, 2009 1:23 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Tarhalindur choices:
N1: Made comms device (mason recruiter), targeted Darox (Amished).
N2: Dead (no choice available)
N3: Dead (no choice available)

Amished choices (using information claimed D3 and logical deduction):
N1: made force field (mason recruiter)
N2: made useless item (zen garden)
N3: made AED (reviver), targeted Tarhalindur*

* - If a living player used the AED, they would have claimed it since reviving me makes you look incredibly pro-town. The only dead player who could have used the AED is Amished.

I'm asking for mod clarification on something, but that would merely raise the usefulness of reviving Amished from "very good idea" to "if you open AED as town tonight and don't revive Amished you are an idiot".

Stethoscope: I want you to confirm which type of result you got N2 - there's a good chance we can clear three if not four players here.

Also, I need to reread Empking and zwetschenwasser.



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Post Post #926 (isolation #36) » Mon Aug 31, 2009 1:46 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

More quick notes:

- It's pretty damn likely that zwetschenwasser opened a Jammer N1 and used it on AceMarksman (now Stethoscope)
- Given the ability resolution order in the first post, Empking should have been roleblocked by melikefood's Jammer N3 (roleblocks resolve before jailkeeps, so BB's Stasis Cell couldn't stop the Jammer). I'm checking to see what RBT policy is on informing players when they are roleblocked - if any player who is roleblocked is informed so, Empking needs to be looked at with an electron microscope.
- The following probably did not perform a Mafia kill given my current understanding of night actions (pretty sure there was a successful Mafia kill, since nobody claimed the Amished kill), though I'll need clarification on certain subjects to be sure: Tarhalindur (definitely not, since I wasn't alive then, not to mention that I'm confirmed town), Beyond Birthday, melikefood. Empking can only have made the Mafia kill if his partner is melikefood; Stethoscope can only have made the kill if his partner is someoldguy, and Stethoscope being scum is an increasingly unlikely proposition. If this is correct, only someoldguy and Gorrad could have made the Amished kill (very very good chance Gorrad is responsible).

Don't lynch anyone just yet - I don't want to see a single vote until we get some of the clarifications (from Stethoscope and the mod).
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Post Post #927 (isolation #37) » Mon Aug 31, 2009 4:44 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Update after RBT clarification:
- Reviving Amished is just a very good idea (comms failed N1)
- Players are only informed about being roleblocked if it prevents them from using an investigative role. No need to use that electron microscope on
- Hiding has no funny business about targeting scum (standard Smalltown Hider)

Still want the Stethoscope clarification: specifically, need to be ABSOLUTELY SURE that he saw duckduck target Beyond Birthday with Spybot and not the other way around (BB target duckduck) with Sentry. (If that is a Spybot result, the logical conclusion is that Beyond Birthday was the missing Mafia kill N2, so Spybotting duckduck->BB softclears BB.)

In order of most to least likely to have performed the Amished kill N3:
- Gorrad (no reason to believe that Gorrad couldn't make the Mafia kill N3 if scum, claimed Tar kill N1 when that kill was probably a Mafia kill and when that kill makes no sense coming from ZazieR if she was town)
- someoldguy (no reason to believe that someoldguy couldn't make the Mafia kill N3 if scum, only circumstantial reason to believe he's town)
- Stethoscope (no reason to believe that someoldguy couldn't make the Mafia kill N3 if scum, but unlikely to be scum due to claimed investigation by SOG and claimed track on duckduck - if scum then must be scum with SOG)
- Beyond Birthday (technically no reason to believe that he couldn't make the N3 Mafia kill, but jailkeep seems plausible; unlikely to be scum given Stetho claimed Spybot yielding duckduck->BB N2 and only one other protective ability claimed N2)
- Empking (melikefood claims roleblock on Empking N3 which would have resolved given actions as claimed - if scum who made Amished kill then melikefood must be partner)
- melikefood (Beyond Birthday claims jailkeep on melikefood N3; Beyond Birthday is very likely to be town and has no reason to lie about this as town)
- Tarhalindur (was dead N3 and confirmed town to boot)
- Amished (confirmed town by death and why the hell would he kill himself? Also almost certainly responsible for Tar revival.)
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Post Post #930 (isolation #38) » Mon Aug 31, 2009 8:39 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Stephoscope wrote:
Tarhalindur wrote:Still want the Stethoscope clarification: specifically, need to be ABSOLUTELY SURE that he saw duckduck target Beyond Birthday with Spybot and not the other way around (BB target duckduck) with Sentry. (If that is a Spybot result, the logical conclusion is that Beyond Birthday was the missing Mafia kill N2, so Spybotting duckduck->BB softclears BB.)
Oh, I'm absolutely sure. My only confusion was that I forget the difference between watching and tracking. Duckduck targeted BB, I am absolutely certain. I sent my spybot Duckduck's way, remember how he looked scummy then?
Only by reread and by the actions of duckduck's predecessor - I wasn't paying too much attention at the time due to the minor inconvenience of being dead at the time.

(In this game, not in real life.)

---

That makes things quite simple - as noted above, the logical place for the missing N2 Mafia kill is targeting Beyond Birthday, and I don't see scum killing scum.

There are a few potential flaws here: namely, two players other than Beyond Birthday used roles that can stop kills N2: melikefood (Force Field/bulletproof) and Empking (Teleporter/hider). I don't consider either of these particularly likely Mafia kills, however. Melikefood was extremely low profile (and has a better-than-average chance of being scum himself), so I really don't see him being a Mafia kill. Empking is harder to rule out (due to claiming the zwet kill - Mafia might have tried to get rid of him for that, much as I suspect the MonkeyMan claim was intended to get Empking lynched) but I doubt he's the N2 kill simply because he's Empking and thus infinitely lynchable.

Besides, BB was one of the strongest and most active players D2 and was moderately suspicious of duckduck; given that the Mafia killed me N1 and duckduck/farside flipped scum, I'd say that BB is a fairly likely Mafia kill.

So, let's assume Beyond Birthday is town and was Mafia killed N2 (prevented by Stasis Cell). In that case, the above post holds.

Where's the Mafioso who didn't make the N3 kill? It's not me (confirmed town yo!), and it's probably not Stethoscope (someoldguy investigation) or Beyond Birthday (Night 2 claimed action + missing N2 Mafia kill). In addition, Gorrad isn't in consideration here because I'm pretty sure he made the N3 kill. That leaves someoldguy, melikefood, and Empking.

Of these, I'd lean towards melikefood being the last Mafioso, given his uninspiring play and choices.

What happens if Gorrad somehow flips town? Given what we know of N1, that means the most likely scum team is Empking/melikefood by a fair margin (Empking scum requires melikefood scum), with decent chances at melikefood/someoldguy and someoldguy/Stethoscope (the latter two require that I was doublekilled - by Mafia and Gorradtown - N1).

(Is considering whether or not to post recommendations for townie night actions.)
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Post Post #931 (isolation #39) » Mon Aug 31, 2009 8:40 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Beyond_Birthday wrote:All conclusions indicate a Gorrad lynch is most in our favor. What then is thy command, my captain?
Run him up to L-1, but I get to hammer (as in: only scum or Tarhalindur hammer today).
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Post Post #936 (isolation #40) » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:09 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Okay, thinking is done.

There are two fatal scenarios for us tonight:
1) We mislynch and two townies are tazed (or one townie is tazed and MonkeyMan is revived)
2) We lynch Gorradscum and three townies are tazed (or two townies are tazed and a scum is revived).

Given this, let's consider optimal night actions tonight in the two possible cases entering night (successful lynch or mislynch)

1) Successful lynch.

We have a shitton of freedom here, with two confirmed town (Tarhalindur, Stethoscope) and two semiconfirmed town (Empking, Beyond Birthday). Really, the only two scum candidates here are melikefood and someoldguy (again, probably the former).

Recommended night actions for town:
Tazers: Kill melikefood (any other kill is a BAD kill)
AEDs: Revive Amished (or possibly Mastin, but Mastin's wordiness kills games)
Terminals/Spybots: Target someoldguy (targeting melikefood is mediocre due to possibility of Terminal kills)
Medkit, Stasis Cell, Sentry: Target a confirmed town (preferably me, but Stethoscope isn't a horrible choice)
Jammers: Roleblock melikefood (most likely scum)
Comm Device: Target as you will, but I weakly recommend targeting a confirmed town (me or Stethoscope)
Teleporter: You'll need to WIFOM to try to dodge the scum kill (I'd lean towards targeting a confirmed town myself, since they have the best shot of being doc protected; someoldguy isn't a horrible choice)
Force Field: Use it. Duh.
Anything useless: It's, well, useless. Duh.

2) Mislynch.

We have less leeway here than I like: scum opening either a Tazer or an AED gives scum the game if all scum kills resolve. Likewise, townie misvigging can hand scum the game with a successful lynch.

Also, I'm not totally sure who's scum here. Options are someoldguy/melikefood, melikefood/Empking, melikefood/Beyond Birthday, someoldguy/Beyond Birthday, someoldguy/Stethoscope.

You'll need to WIFOM a bit here, especially if you luck into a roleblock or Stasis Cell (you want to block a Mafia with those if possible), but I recommend the following for fellow townies:

Tazer: Strongly consider not using it, since a misvig plus scum kill or AED loses the game for town. If you do use it, I'd use it on melikefood or maybe someoldguy.
AED: Amished or maybe Mastin are still your best bets here.
Terminals/Spybots: Please investigate Empking here. I'd REALLY like to be sure of his alignment if Gorrad somehow flips town. Someoldguy's also not a horrible investigation choice, but he might get Tazed.
Medkit, Sentry: You'll need to WIFOM here. Best choice in a vacuum is to protect confirmed town Tarhalindur, but certain other players (BB and Empking) should be considered in case the scum decide to try to push through kills by killing nonconfirmed town.
Stasis Cell/Jammer: Best targets are someoldguy and melikefood, but consider Empking/Stethoscope/Beyond Birthday (your priority here is to block a scum's abilities if at all possible).
Comms Device: Use as you will, but I strongly recommend sending it my way.
Teleporter: WIFOM is needed here. Hide wherever you don't think any kills are going.
Force Field: Use it. Duh.
Anything useless: It's, well, useless. Duh.

Note that these are just recommendations: Adjust them to fit your tastes, or discard them entirely. (Scenario 2 I consider unlikely but should be kept in mind just in case.)
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Post Post #937 (isolation #41) » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:18 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Gorrad wrote:
Vote: Empking


Monkeyman claimed the Zwet kill. Either two people both targeted zwet, or Empking and MM are scumpartners.
Or farside22 did something completely different N1 and ZazieRscum killed me. Or farside22 and ZazieR both opened Tazers and tried to taze me N1.

In fact, the fact that you didn't mention that last one is the final nail in your coffin (and clears Empking even more than he already was, provided you flip scum. Which you will.)

-------------------

So, Mr. T, do you know what time it is?

It's... time to open this cool package and see what we can build...
You
found
made the Megaton Hammer!
Press (C) to smash and break
junk! It's so heavy, you need to
use two hands to swing it!
======[]

[]======

======[]

HAMMER TIME.

Vote: Gorrad
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Post Post #941 (isolation #42) » Fri Sep 04, 2009 3:11 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

semioldguy wrote:Claim order for today Mr. Tarhalindur?
1) melikefood
2) semioldguy
3) Beyond Birthday
4) Empking
5) Tarhalindur
6) Stethoscope

Pretty sure that I should claim before Stethoscope, but not 100% sure. Stethoscope, you're also confirmed - you want any modifications to this?

(Keep in mind that both Stethoscope and myself are confirmed town, the former due to SOG investigation + 2 dead scum and the latter due to being revived.)
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Post Post #944 (isolation #43) » Fri Sep 04, 2009 7:01 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Beyond_Birthday wrote:I am quite amiable to the above list, and though not confirmed, I would prefer that Empking claims first. I believe both 5 and 6 are of no consequence.
Two consecutive Mafiosos have attempted to discredit Empking via claim (MonkeyMan D3, Gorrad D4). He's almost certainly town, and he should be allowed to claim late given that.

(In fact, the only reason I DON'T recommend moving you above SOG in the claim order for this post alone is because confirmed town Stethoscope tracked duckduck/MonkeyMan/farside22 to you N2 and there's a missing Mafia kill N2.)
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Post Post #949 (isolation #44) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 7:09 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Opened another Comms Device (HAILING FREQUENCIES OPEN), targeted Stethoscope. This Comms Device SUCCEEDED (hence why I wanted Stethoscope to claim after me, he should be able to confirm this.
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Post Post #950 (isolation #45) » Sun Sep 06, 2009 7:17 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Also, some extremely important information courtesy of mod clarification (should have asked for this yesterday...):

Blocked actions don't appear on tracker/watcher results.

This is important because that means that either the action duckduck used N2 was NOT a Mafia kill (it could be Jailkeeper or Hider) or Beyond Birthday is lying about using Stasis Cell on duckduck N2 (in which case BB is probably scum).

Either way, the N2 Mafia kill, if it even exists, did NOT get sent at Beyond Birthday, which removes most of BB's alibi.


No votes have been placed yet. Stephoscope is currently V/LA.
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Post Post #956 (isolation #46) » Tue Sep 08, 2009 7:50 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

SOG, one problem with that assessment: there are two actions that could have gone through a Stasis Cell (Teleporter/Hide and Jammer/Roleblock). The fact that those actions weren't CLAIMED, however, is a better reason to lynch Beyond Birthday.

Also... the only place the missing N4 Mafia kill could have gone (if it exists) is Stethoscope. Why kill Steth over me?

I say run him up to L-1 and I get the hammer once again. (Unless he's scum and gives up.)
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Post Post #959 (isolation #47) » Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:49 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Pretty sure the last scum has to be either Beyond Birthday or melikefood.

The only way we go to night is if we mislynch (otherwise we win). Scum shouldn't be able to simultaneously kill and revive, so the main threat to us comes from 2 town-aligned miskills. Also, as of tonight we will have three confirmed town (1 semiconfirmed, 2 hardconfirmed) out of five players) - Mafia CANNOT afford to kill a nonconfirmed player unless they win the game before daybreak (otherwise we just lynch the last unconfirmed and win).

Also note that if we get one more town-aligned kill on an unconfirmed and Mafia can't screw us over, we autowin. Same for an AED on a townie (i.e, Amished).

In light of that, recommended night actions for town (those that aren't named Tarhalindur or Stethoscope, that is):

Tazers: Kill melikefood. Kill melikefood. Kill melikefood. Any other choice is bad.
Medkit/Sentry/Stasis Cell: Protect/watch/jail me or Stethoscope, preferably the former.
Terminal/Spybot: Investigate/track semioldguy. Any other choice is bad.
Jammer: Block melikefood. Any other choice is bad.
Comms Device: Mason as you will, but I strongly recommend targeting an existing Mason.
Teleporter: Consider not hiding, or else hide behind semioldguy.
AED: Revive Amished, obviously. Remember: opening an AED is an autowin if you aren't blocked.
Force Field: Use it. Duh.
Anything useless. It's useless. Duh.

-------

As for BB: Frankly, given lack of Tar kill last night and N2 results, you're the best option.

Also, @ SOG: Pretty sure that N2 kill went to Empking (who claimed a hide behind duckduck N2, and Teleporter is unblockable).

Also, there's a pride point at stake: if you're scum, then three out of the four players I considered top suspects at the end of D1 were, in fact, scum... and there were no scum outside the list.

I can't really pass this up.

=======[]

[]=======

=======[]

Mjolnir READY!

Vote: Beyond Birthday
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Post Post #960 (isolation #48) » Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:50 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Er, pride point if Beyond Birthday flips scum.

Sorry for the confusion.
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Post Post #982 (isolation #49) » Wed Sep 16, 2009 3:15 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Heh, I'd wondered if the scum kill was box-based. Hadn't thought of a single box with seven Tazers, though.

On setup: If I'd been running the setup, I would probably have swapped out a couple of the actions or added a twelfth option. In particular, Cop + Watcher + Tracker + Reviver was a bit heavy on the confirmability aspect; I'd have removed Cop for a weaker investigative role (maybe a role that learns what ability, if any, the targeted player used on that night? That idea's been sitting in my notes for a while, and it would have worked very well here).

I'd also have added a twelfth option to further dilute the likelihood of certain roles appearing (perhaps Redirector, a role I find criminally underused).

If you run this as a Large Theme, I'd suggest adding considerably more boxes per player.

On play: Best action I saw this game was Amished N3 - I agree with Amished that town would have likely lost without it.

Also, I should REALLY have caught onto Luna Louise D1 for that Chainsaw Defense of ZazieR with a really contrived reason.

Mason QuickTopic: Here. Not much here, though, since the game was pretty much over anyways, neither action needed to be discussed (since Stephoscope opened a blank) and Stephoscope was V/LA at the time.
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