Mini 779 - Killer in Smalltown Y - Over

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@John - what's this about blocking Mary Rose?

If she's scum and left unblocked then there's a 50 percent chance she wrecks the town. I guess as long as she's directed to target a protected target and then the watcher and/or tracker are setup to make sure she targets the intended individual that would be fine as well.

Top of the page vote count:

Tina has 2 votes (Richard, Misty)
Richard has 1 vote (Tina)
6 are not voting (Bruce, Charles, Mary Rose, Tom, Vicki, John)
9 alive, eh, 5 to lynch.

[Y]

We need to lynch at every chance we get in this set up. There is no room for free rolls.

Actually, there's not much room for error either, so blind lynches can really hurt the town.

[Grimmy]

Im also against a no lynch.

Im reading through to see who is the most cleared as town so I dont pick the wrong person to protect.

Grimmy
cannot self protect (dammit)

[Hypatia]

@John - what's this about blocking Mary Rose?

If she's scum and left unblocked then there's a 50 percent chance she wrecks the town. I guess as long as she's directed to target a protected target and then the watcher and/or tracker are setup to make sure she targets the intended individual that would be fine as well.

As long as there's another level of "watching" on me to make sure that I AM blocked--because I have a 50% chance of a built-in failure.

Is there a way that we can tweak imaginality's plan so that Bruce and/or Richard aren't the sole confirmers of each other?

[armlx]

Actually, there's not much room for error either, so blind lynches can really hurt the town.

Logical lynch > random lynch > illogical lynch > no lynch.

Oh wait, same as always. Way to state the obvious and make it sound insightful.

[imaginality]

s there a way that we can tweak imaginality's plan so that Bruce and/or Richard aren't the sole confirmers of each other?

Well, we could fall back on the other plan I suggested:

We lynch Tina.

Richard stalks Bruce.
Bruce protects someone.
Tom watches Bruce.

I target Mary Rose and vice versa.

John targets Vicki or Bruce (flips a coin).

Misty targets me.

This way:

If Bruce does not protect someone, Richard would know. (Also if Bruce protects someone and dies, Richard would know who Bruce's target was.)
If Richard does not stalk Bruce, Tom would know.
If Tom does not watch Bruce, there is a 50/50 shot of him being caught out depending if John targeted Bruce or not.
If Vicki does not self-watch, there is a 50/50 shot of her being caught out depending if John targeted Vicki or not.
If I do not jail Mary Rose, there is a 50/50 shot of her vigging me.
If Misty does not target me, we will know.
If John does not steal someone's vote, we will know.
Mary Rose cannot kill.

Suggested claim order:

Tom (confirms he saw Richard target Bruce)
Bruce (says who he protected)
Richard (confirms he saw Bruce visit who Bruce said he did)

Vicki (says if she saw John target her)
Tom (says if he saw John target Bruce)
John (confirms if he targeted Vicki or Bruce)

Misty's action is confirmed if I'm silenced.
My jailing of Mary Rose is 50% confirmed if I'm alive.
Mary Rose being jailed (and therefore cleared of making any kills) is also 50% confirmed if I'm alive.

As long as there's another level of "watching" on me to make sure that I AM blocked--because I have a 50% chance of a built-in failure.

This plan doesn't ensure you're blocked (yes, I know I'm town, but from an objective perspective that's not proven beyond doubt yet (Grimmy and I could both be scum)), but it does at least ensure that if I don't kidnap you I'm placing myself in the firing line.

[imaginality]

Note: If Vicki is right that we have to lynch John today, then we can use the same plan as above but with Tina roleblocking Vicki (if she doesn't, Vicki will know; if she does then Vicki can't make the mafia kill in any case).

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Note: If Vicki is right that we have to lynch John today, then we can use the same plan as above but with Tina roleblocking Vicki (if she doesn't, Vicki will know; if she does then Vicki can't make the mafia kill in any case).

Yes, but what's the setup where we lynch Tina, but since I'm not confirmed either way I'm blocked/jailkept.

[imaginality]

Problem is if we lynch Tina, then we can't block both you and Mary Rose. The best we can do is kidnap you and have Mary Rose target you, or vice versa.

[malthusis]

I still believe your plan (imaginality's) is comprehensively the best one right now that has Tina getting lynched. We are not idiots not capable of scumhunting, we can always scumhunt if we need to. In fact, if scum does what I think they're going to do, we won't get any results no matter what (they won't kill) and changing our lynch target sorely because of that is a total waste if it's wrong. In fact, according to your plan, if there's a scum kill tonight, it has to be John's right? (This obviously takes into account Tina being to scum so there will be a less chance of faked results.

[imaginality]

Actually, John can't make the scum kill under my plan (we'd know he hadn't used his power). It could only be Vicki, Tom or me, each with a 50% chance of getting caught out.


I like my plan if Tina is scum or SK, I think it should work well in either case. It's only if Tina flips town that things get worrying - at 4 town, 3 scum, 1 SK, even if scum and SK cross-kill, if John is scum the double vote would let scum force a no-lynch at 4 vs 2.

[Y]

Killing me is a mistake. I know I tend to be scummy every time I play. That's my play style and that's how my logic works. But I have a useful ability. I can target Rose and have her to target me. That means that you don't waste the other blocker and I can't afford not blocking.

It seems weird to me that I'm the only one who looks scummy to the town. I'm not used to see everybody agreeing with each other about a lynch so early in the game.

[Tarhalindur]

Mod: I am V/LA until Friday.

I want to have time to look over things before we end day, and with finals week occuring that's not going to be happening until Friday or Saturday unless I'm lucky.

Duly noted.

[armlx]

Killing me is a mistake. I know I tend to be scummy every time I play. That's my play style and that's how my logic works.

Lol.

Seriously?

[Y]

Lol.

Seriously?

Actually? Yes. You can go look up my games. I'm always one of the first ones to be accused as scum.

[armlx]

Not an excuse dude.

[Y]

Not an excuse dude.

I'm not using it as an excuse. I'm just saying that my logic and actions usually look scummy at the beginning of the game. Being fixed on some one who looks scummy without checking other options isn't good, and if you know that that person always looks scummy, you should try looking at other people even more.

It seems like two people here have a tunnel vision on me and just ignore everybody else. I'm the easiest target, I guess.

You can have me on check and you can always lynch me later. Playing the game as if I'm the only lynch option isn't good.

@armlx and malthusis: Who do you think is scum besides me? Who else should be noticed? Why am I more scummy than all the people who let both the mafia-doc and SK-doc die N0?

[AshMC1984]

I'm down with Charles plan.

Vote: Tina

Tina it's no good seeming scummy and saying that that is your playstyle. Also you're role doesn't help us if you are scum.

[Grimmy]

im withholding a vote until Tar gets back so we can hear what he has to say first.

Grimmy

[armlx]

@armlx and malthusis: Who do you think is scum besides me? Who else should be noticed? Why am I more scummy than all the people who let both the mafia-doc and SK-doc die N0?

Choosing not to jailkeep a doc is reasonable. Jailkeep is also stronger then conditional doc, so Bruce's weak doc choice is right by far.

Personally, I would say maybe DDP, but most info this game is going to come tomorrow morning once we get night actions set.

You also can't compare this scenario to people finding normal tells scummy, its a night action choice here. No similarity.

[Tarhalindur]

I have SEVERE misgivings about any plan that leaves either of {John, Mary/Rose} unblocked tonight, let alone both - because the problem with waiting until tomorrow morning is, unless we hit Mafia today, there's a pretty good chance there WON'T be another morning. If we lynch Tina, we need to be damn sure she's Mafia... and I'm not sure about that yet. (I need to compare Y's play here to older games, at any rate.)

Moreover, I'm pretty sure we need to decide who Bruce targets before the end of the day. We CAN'T have him hit scum unless we lynch Mafia today; even if we can afford to lose Bruce, it's better for us that we know where his target was, since he may be able to function as a weak Cop investigation.

Problem is, I still haven't had time to fully think over an alternative. Best idea I have right now is the following:

We lynch John.

Richard stalks Bruce.
Bruce protects Vicki or Charles (his choice).
Tom watches Bruce.

Charles targets Mary Rose and vice versa.

Tina targets Vicki or Bruce (flips a coin).

Misty targets Charles.

Pros:
- John, if Mafia, cannot steal a Townie's vote.
- If Charles doesn't target Mary Rose, Mary Rose has a 50/50 shot of killing Charles
- Mary Rose is blocked (if the SK kill appears, Mary Rose is cleared of being the SK)
- If Richard is lying, he has a 50% chance of being called on it.
- If Ash is lying, he has a 50% chance of being called on it.
- If I'm lying, I have a 50% chance of being called on it.
- If Tina is lying, we should know (both of her possible targets are watched).
- If Misty is lying, we should know (Charles will be able to talk).

Biggest con I can think of: If Tina is scum, Tina can block Charles and open up a Mary/Rose shot. This may or may not autolose the game.

There may be other cons I can't think of. Comments would be appreciated.

[imaginality]

First thoughts: This plan (basically a slight twist on my plan in 155/156 above) looks fine to me.

Your point that we may not be able to afford to lose Bruce to a mis-protect tonight is a good one - I was thinking that keeping the scum guessing as to his target was important, but you're right that we pretty much have to avoid any excess deaths tonight to have much of a chance. Limiting his target choices also makes us less reliant on Richard being town.

Regarding your con, it's an acceptable risk - if Tina as scum blocks me, there is only a 25% chance of me being killed (it would require both Mary/Rose being evil tonight

and

Bruce protecting Vicki instead of me).

While Tina's blocking Richard is anti-town, her role is more valuable to us if she is town than John's due to her ability to block scum/SK from killing. John's been pretty happy to go along with any plan that sees Tina lynched or a no-lynch, so I could see Tina being town if John is scum. (Hope so - we could really do with a successful block and/or protect.) And John's night action last night isn't confirmed (easy for a scum vote-stealer to claim to have targeted the dead guy)... yep, I can see enough possibility of John being scum to be okay with lynching him today, taking into account the night action interactions as discussed.

So: as things stand, I'm good with your plan.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Hi, I'm a mistake; you're busy trying to make me.

If you lynch me, then it's 4-3-1, with three scum they'll surely find a way to get a kill through tonight even if it gives someone up meaning then it's 3-3-1 or 4-3, the SK is better off no targeting if that's an option for them, because if they hit town then it's 2-3-1 or 3-3 and scum have won. Even if the SK no targets then the same thing happens if Bruce targets scum and dies in the night. Essentially, the likely only thing stopping scum from winning if you kill me is the SK correctly identifying and killing scum.

A no lynch means that the SK would have hit town AND Bruce would have to target scum to hand us a loss before the next day. Hence why I've shifted from believing that the lynch of Tina is the best plan since it's not a sure thing to believing a no lynch is actually the best course of action. I've not simply gone with any available plan as Charles claims, I've looked at the possibilities and a no lynch looks the best. Might as well make it really obvious so that everyone else can flip out on me for actually using my brain...

Vote: No lynch

[armlx]

Lol at the last post. Close defense.

Keep in mind, we aren't getting anywhere off a no lynch.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Keep in mind, we aren't getting anywhere off a no lynch.

We go to night where coordinated night actions allow us to find scum. Unless of course you're suggesting that the proposed night actions will fail in which case it's odd that you haven't pointed out the flaws in the proposed plans.