Mini 170 - Time Travel Mafia, Game Over!

[SubtleTactix]

I think reviving armlx makes perfect sense, mostly for the reasons stated. Reviving a power role later would be nice, but we don't want a doc dying with time fuel left to spend.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Everything of course depends on how much time fuel is available and how powerful the non-generic roles are. Still, I think armlx-revival is correct.

In regular mafia, **before role claims start coming out,** a doc has only a chance of helping the town each night -- if both the doc and scum target the same person.

Tonight, a doc-type has two basic strategies:

A. Use time fuel to revive armlx on night one
B. Don't use time fuel and just protect a (probably non-confirmed) townie

A. is a much better choice for two reasons. First, it is more likely to have a positive effect than B. Second, A yields a confirmed townie without anyone having to reveal their role. Even if the doc prevents a kill in the B scenario, we don't get a confirmed townie out of the mix for free (under this scenario, the doc could REVEAL and confirm a townie, but we couldn't get the confirmed townie for free, like we can in A).

Waiting might have a bigger payoff, but we have to fight longer odds: The doc might be killed before we successfully deduce a sufficiently powerful role of a dead player.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

I am a little confused. Before you wrote:

As of now, I all for reviving armlx and any confirmed townies, but unless we know with absolute positivsness (not a word but you know where I'm goin with it) I think it might be dangerous to revive a power role.

But just now you wrote:

The point I'm making is, it would be amazing if we killed the mafia without having to use our fuel, but that's not happeneing. THe only reason I suggest this is not to have you guys it around doing nothing, but it's for the doctors and stuff. Don't waste your fuel! If we misuse our fuel, it could be catastrophe for the town, but I guess other then that we should have a ball.

Can you clarify? Are you suggesting that reviving armlx is a waste of time fuel? Because you seemed in favor of it in your previous post.
I respect your opinion that we shouldn't waste our time travelling abilities, but I don't understand how you feel about reviving armlx as a use of timefuel.
--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Yeah, sorry about the lurking -- I've been swamped with guests the last several days, and never quite found the time to post.

I keep seeing people talk about time fuel as if it costs one unit per day of trip, and when I read mathcam's rules and the townie PM, I think that may be an incorrect assumption. Based on the posted rules, it looks like a trip from Night 5 to Night 4 costs the same amount as a trip from Night 5 to Night 2 -- one unit of fuel. Therefore, people who are suggesting something different are either:

A. Implicitly making a role-claim, or
B. Assuming more than they should about game mechanics, or
C. Carefully reading something that I have missed.

(If the answer is C, I apologize, but please point this out -- I don't see it.) I suppose it is even possible that time fuel works differently for different characters.

I don't have a better lynch candidate than SV. She is the vote leader. She has done little in the way for her own defense. I guess I'm happy to wait and see if she says something more convincing.

i dont like the fact that there are bandwagon votes on my head. i mean just because i dont have a lead like everyone else, it doesnt make me more guilty.

That is true. But what does start to look scummy is when you've had a long time to present an adequate defense, and failed to do so. You've had three votes on for quite a while, yet you haven't suggested anyone else as a lynch target, and you haven't made even a hint of a role-claim. With the deadline approaching, you should probably change your approach...

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Just a heads up: I'm going to a conference this weekend and won't be able to post until late Sunday night.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

I think a role-claim at this point will help shed some light on this subject. I am the vigilante, and here is an important statement:

*** I did NOT use my Night 2 action to travel to Night 1 and kill Mgm. ***

As a result, I am very confident that we have an SK on our hands. If that is correct, then probably both mafia and SK acted Night 1. But there was only one kill on Night 1 originally. So here are some possibilities:

A. Mafia and SK targeted armlx night one.
B. There will be an attempted future kill, by a scum group.
C. A doc protected somebody night one
D. A roleblocker stopped the SK night one.

D would be great, C would be good, B is not very likely. I worry most about A. Why? Because that means our doc may have spent time fuel last night to protect armlx, only to find that he is still dead (b/c he was targeted twice).

So, if the doc is still alive out there, cursing their luck, they could try to revive armlx AGAIN tonight, or they could try to revive Fuldu. A confirmed townie would definitely be an asset. I guess the positive side of this is that the doc could still very much be alive.

Notice that Mgm CANNOT be the SK: Suppose he were; then clearly he didn't go back in time to kill himself, so it must have been the mafia that did that. That means Mgm would have targeted Fuldu on night two -- except he wouldn't be alive to do it! So Mgm is not the serial killer. He COULD still be mafia.

DS makes an interesting argument about how Mafia would have killed Fuldu on night one in an effort to save SV, if SV were Mafia. I think the real explanation is that the mafia overlooked this strategy. SV's defense in the end was so bizarre I have a hard time believing it. Especially since Fuldu, a confirmed townie, pointed out how her defense contradicted statements made my mathcam at the start of the game. I like our lynch of SV, and for now I'm assuming that she was mafia.

Now, during day one, we had a request for an extension of the deadline, while SV was the leading vote getter. People who specifically requested an extension were Axelrod, Crola, DL140, Mgm, Nanook, and Fuldu. Now while it was certainly a reasonable request from a townie, I think it would also make sense for a mafioso to "chime in" on the request in order to buy some more time for SV.

We know Fuldu is a townie. I think Crola is probably a townie, based on her "inadvertent role-claim" statement on day one (plus she was the most pro-saving-armlx of the six). Mgm is dead. That leaves three names, and I'm inclined to vote for Nanook off that list. He purports that SV could really be the backup doc, which I just find really hard to believe at this point. So, until a better case gets made...

Vote: Nanook

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

SubtleTactix, coming out as vigilante might have been a poor move on your part, as it sort of marks you for death, and lets them undo any successful kills you make.

Well, I realize that -- but it seemed like a reasonable trade off for the town; *I* knew there was an SK and that the doctor could very well still be alive, but no one else did. Further, I've already acted once, and failed. So my value to the town (and hence, my threat to the mafia) has diminished (without divulging details, I've only finitely many uses of my abilities...).

That said, I don't appreciate the implication that you'd like to lynch Nanook today and vig me (or Axelrod, I guess) tonight. Or am I just being paranoid?

You are being paranoid. I used the extension as a qualifier -- but only Nanook was pressing SV's innocence off that list (as a back-up doc).
The combination made me suspect Nanook. I'm certainly not suggesting that the request was scummy by itself, and it's not my intent to vig someone for that alone tonight.

That said, my thoughts on who the scum are, at the moment, are a bit underdeveloped and mostly consist of Mastermind of Sin being useless even after he got back from vacation. Which isn't a storng argument by any stretch.

Oddly, I shared similar feelings for MoS, but felt there was more compelling (although still not iron-clad) evidence for Nanook.

I guess I just tried to cut corners. All my other thoughts for posting were of the form: "Hey guys, trust me, there's an SK and we probably still have a doc." The response would have been, "How do you know?" and I just would have had to claim anyway in order to explain myself. I could obviously be wrong, but my belief is that my actions are a net positive for the town, even if I die tonight, or die night 1, or whenever.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Well, here's my action history (this should answer your questions, Axelrod):

Night 1: Did not act.
Night 2: Did not timetravel. Targeted Mgm. This "failed" b/c he already died on Night 1. (Doc should note this -- only consider protecting Mgm on Night 1 if I die on Night 1).

So:

I have not killed anyone

. Because of that knowledge that I had (the vig had not killed anyone), I deduced that we must have two killing groups (which I presume to be mafia/SK). Then I asked myself, "If so, why was there only one death on night 1?" That led to my previous post.

Also, I think it's a really stupid idea that you role claimed Tactix, despite that you thought it was in the town's best interest, you've killed the vigilante in doing so, which in turn hurtsthe town greatly, so your noble act has actually hurt rather than helped.

Look, I felt I was in a unique position, where my actions plus the end results told me a lot about what was going on.

Since the value of my role had diminished, my most valuable asset was information.

Keep in mind, I am not a permanent vig. I have a small number of actions I can take, and I'v already used one. Combining that with a slow pace, I decided to claim to get my info out there for everyone, not just me.

A little choppy, I know, but the point is, I'm a he, not a she.

My apologies. I'll keep it straight from now on.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

I mean only that I have a limited number of kills I can attempt. I have no other special abilities.

[SubtleTactix]

Sorry, I thought I had made this clear: My role is that I am an N-shot vig, where N is a small finite number. How does it help the town to divulge the value of N, or how much time fuel I have left? (I have already tried to imply that both quantities are small -- more detail shouldn't be necessary) I have no other special abilities.

I'm not buying your vig story so far. You say you haven't killed yet, why? Most vigilantes would have killed by Day two.

Well, I already answered this. Did you read my previous posts!? I did take an action last night, but scum 'beat me to the punch,' by killing Mgm on Night 1. Here's exactly what I said:

Well, here's my action history (this should answer your questions, Axelrod):

Night 1: Did not act.
Night 2: Did not timetravel. Targeted Mgm. This "failed" b/c he already died on Night 1. (Doc should note this -- only consider protecting Mgm on Night 1 if I die on Night 1).

If that doesn't answer why I haven't killed yet, I don't know what does.

Unvote. FOS: Crola

. For all that the 'doubt' you have for my role-claim, you don't seem to be paying too much attention to the details of my posts. My role-claim is out there, and I think I've explained it well enough. Your pestering at this point just seems like mafia trying to figure out whether or not I'm still a liability to them.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

If I were an SK, what's the point of such an elaborate role-claim?

Pretend for a moment that I am an SK:

There was no pressure on me to role-claim; why would I cause such a stir without even a vote on me? Further, with no other role-claims out there, I would be risking a counter-claim by a real vigilante, or being targeted by a real vigilante tonight. Or, a cop investigation. What advantage does it gain me? It doesn't make sense!

My claim would be suicide for me if I were an SK: between possible investigations and a real vigilante, I'd be killing myself for no good reason.

Look folks, I am a Vig. What I could deduce told me we likely still have a doc alive. I made my role-claim because:

* It prevents us from outing the doc if he is still alive,
* It saves the doc for another night (scum will probably target me ahead of taking a random shot hunting for the doc)
* It explains that we have an SK in the group.

Vote: Crola

. I find his agressive and persistent line of questioning suspicious, given that no counter-claim has been made against me.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

If I were an SK, what's the point of such an elaborate role-claim? Pretend for a moment that I am an SK:

There was no pressure on me to role-claim; why would I cause such a stir without even a vote on me? Further, with no other role-claims out there, I would be risking a counter-claim by a real vigilante, or being targeted by a real vigilante tonight. Or, a cop investigation. What advantage does it gain me? It doesn't make sense!

My claim would be suicide for me if I were an SK: between possible investigations and a real vigilante, I'd be killing myself for no good reason.

Look folks, I am a Vig. What I could deduce told me we likely still have a doc alive. I made my role-claim because:

* It prevents us from outing the doc if he is still alive,
* It saves the doc for another night (scum will probably target me ahead of taking a random shot hunting for the doc)
* It explains that we have an SK in the group.

Vote: Crola

. I find his agressive and persistent line of questioning suspicious, given that he didn't even fully read my defense, and that no counter-claim has been made against me.

One more thing: I never requested revival if I die, and frankly that would be a silly move for the town --

revive a confirmed townie instead

! So the logic that I claimed to set up a revival later does not apply.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Okay, so why did you do it? You've condemned yourself to death tonight and further go on to syat that you don't want to be revived. YOur post and claim are both inane and illogical. You have helped the town in no way and have hurt it more than anything.

The best thing for a good power role to do is to keep their mouth shut because if they don't attention gets called to them, they die, and they won't get revived because they're not a confirmed townie.
I still say down with Tactix!

Your logic is flawed. If I am the SK, I

have to stay alive to win.

Therefore, the claim in that case is horrible. But if I am a Vig,

I can still win if I die

, so long as the town wins. So if the claim helps the town sufficiently, it's a good decision. I realize many of you disagree with my decision to claim, but again I'll just remind everyone: We didn't out the doc today, the doc has a smaller list of people to protect now, and the utility of my role is limited (shots and time fuel) regardless. It seemed woth it from my point of view.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

I'll agree to that...

Unvote

.

[SubtleTactix]

With only

FIVE

alive, it takes only

THREE

to lynch. PLEASE one of you unvote me until we've had a chance to sort through what's going on. Otherwise we're looking at a quick lynch, and a possible loss for the town. You can still lynch me closer to deadline, and get more info for the town to use as a result.

Holy S%#t! You've got to be kidding me, 5 people left? I have the feeling we just lost our doc, firstly b/c Cam thought Fuldu was protected a previous night.

Are you saying you think DarkLight was a doc? On what basis do you make that claim? I think you're reading too much into mathcam's mistake.

Next thing I'm gonna throw out for ya'll, how the hell did our so called "Vig" make it through the night?

I'm sure the mafia realized that I would make a great lynch target today, so didn't bother to kill me last night.

If you're logic is correct, there should have been 3 kills. One SK, one Mafia, one Vig. Now, we had 2 kills.

No, the fact that there were only two kills is not a contradiction. Last night, I traveled to Night 1 to kill Darklight. If he's our SK, then there would only be only two kills as a result. Or perhaps both SK/mafia targeted DS. There are certainly ways to explain what has happened that don't involve me being Mafia.

Out of two kills, one of them most likely would have found its way to the vigilante, unless we're playing with really dumb mafia, but so far they've been doing a damn good job.

Crola, your argument has basically consisted of "The mafia would have killed you if you were telling the truth," stated several different times. But that's not true. Mafia know I could be easier to lynch than someone else, so they left me alive.

Currently, we only have two role-claims: mine, and Uraj (Nanook claimed townie.) I think one of Crola/Axelrod is scum. I don't have a vibe for Drummer (Electra was way too lurky on Day 2). Sure, it's easy to claim townie, but no cop counter-claimed, and Uraj was a lot more reasonable about my role-claim than Crola was, so of course I'm naturally inclined to believe Uraj's claim.

Also, let me ask this: Even if you think I am scum, I can't possibly be the last scum left in the game, since two people died after Day 2 ended. Who among Crola/Uraj/Axelrod/Drummer is scum? No matter what you think of me, there's scum among the other four of you somewhere.

Finally,

I agree with Crola, just about all the points he made. No one else it could really be at this point.

Vote: SubtleTactics

You've got to be kidding. Crola merely wrote "Mafia should have killed him" several different ways. And how does Crola's argument rule out anyone else being scum?

I'm not the right lynch target here, folks.

Vote: Crola

. I know he kind of claimed townie by misunderstanding time fuel on Day 1, but a lot of people were doing that, and it could just be a ruse. I'm not 100% sure he's scum, but I'm 100% sure I'm NOT scum, and that's just as important.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

1)

Even if you think I am scum, I can't possibly be the last scum left in the game, since two people died after Day 2 ended. Who among Crola/Uraj/Axelrod/Drummer is scum? No matter what you think of me, there's scum among the other four of you somewhere.

You're implicitly admitting scum right here.

No I am not, and you're just trying to manipulate people by saying that. I am pointing out that lynching me does not solve all the town's problems, regardless of whether you think I'm scum.

2) You tell me to unvote you, then you go straight away with an OMGUS vote against me. Why in the world would ask someone to not vote you, only to vote them when you finish speaking? This will only want me to leave my vote on more.

It's not simply OMGUS. Your posts against me have been antagonistic and very anti-town. You haven't posted anything in your own defense -- just claimed that I must be scum. You're trying to push through my lynch before the town has a chance to consider things fully. Answer this question: Why should anyone

believe you are pro-town

?

3) Darklight could very well have been a doctor, and we now know for a fact you killed him.

Again...

on what basis do you claim Darklight was the doctor

? Do you have an investigative role? You have not backed this up with any facts at all! He could just as easily have been the SK. All we

know

is that he's not a townie.

You have only harmed us thus far.

Nonsense. Can you

please

justify this statement? If I hadn't claimed, we'd be even more in the dark than we already are. At some point, people have to share what they know.

I will not pull my vote.

Crola, if you were truly pro-town, you'd be willing to entertain other possibilities, consider them fully, then reach a course of action. Why is that such an unpleasant regimen?

Regardless, we need input from the others. Uraj, Drummer, you'll eventually have to decide what happens today -- you might as well ask some questions or share some thoughts first.

[SubtleTactix]

Well, the game was totally awesome. I apologize to my townie brethren for stirring up such confusion, but I still don't think my claim was so horrible.

I realize now that I made an implicit assumption when I claimed on day two; I was banking on there being a cop in the game. (All my other minis so far have had at least one...) I figured I couldn't confuse the town too much, b/c if my claim wasn't considered believable, a cop would settle it with an investigation.

I can't believe Mgm was the serial killer. That's awesome -- I spat out my coffee laughing when I read Mgm's quote of my old post. Way to go, fallible logic!

Oh, and I have no problem with Day 3 ending the way it did. Crola and I would have had to have voted a common target together to change the outcome, and I think that wasn't too likely at that point.

Anyway, thanks mathcam. I think the setup was balanced very well.