Mafia 37: Werewolves - Game over!

[mneme]

Ok, so mod, what does a Herbalist do? Doctor?

perl -e 'print +(map $_->[0], sort {$a->[1] <=> $b->[1]} map [$_,rand()],<>)[0]' sez:

vote: Nonchalance (random)

[mneme]

Hmm. I'm thinking it may be time to have some actual content.

I'm not going to unvote as yet -- I find OMGUS votes (especially in response to random votes) rather suspicous.

OTOH, it's worth noting that IS getting bumped off sez (to me) that we've got at least some experienced players among the mafia.

Aside from myself, coolbot, and Pooky, who's got reasonable amounts of experience among the living?

[mneme]

StD: thanks for the list. Obviously, it only increases the odds of finding therianthropes a small amouint, but any odds improvement that doesn't have a major downside is usually worthwhile. (plus, it gives us something new to discuss, which is a good goal in and of itself, IMO).

Stam: Experienced players will, generally speaking, (as first night scum kills) hit other competent and experiennced players. This is for a number of reasons, starting with the idea of killing the people you most fear, moving on to that of not making a night 1 kill on somene very new before they even get a turn in, and probably for other reasons as well. IS is probably particularly good in that respect, since he's less likely to get doc protection (because his playstyle annoys some people).

By contrast, very new players often don't know who the big names are, and are less likely to be bit with the "let them get a game in" meme.

Obviously, you can't read too much into it, and people do doublethink (especially hitting midlist players rather than top drawer to avoid suspision on choice grounds), but it's a useful starting point.

[mneme]

A therianthrope is a shapechanger who has human as one of their shapes (anthro=human) -- it's the generic of which lycanthrope is a more specific susbset.

Coron: it's possible. But I'd guess 2 and 2, or 2 and 3, split either way, given the IS choice and the game breakdown.

[mneme]

Double post removed by Moderator.

[mneme]

Coolbot: what do I have to put in as a userpic before people realize I'm a guy?

Wait...don't answer that.

Several of the people voting me right now seem pretty sloppy -- I'm not even sure which to vote for (well, let's see; Dranko20 didn't notice that I listed myself among the possibilities; Coron just lied).

Actually, that's fairly clear, at least for now. LAL.

Vote: Coron

Since when is trying to do odds reduction calculus "acting like might have info who's scum"?

[mneme]

gah

unvote
vote: Coron

[mneme]

Double post removed by Moderator.

[mneme]

Coron, please back up your claim or withdraw it.

The only thing I could see was my statement that if there were no othere baddie groups, the werewolf clan would have 4-5 members.

Which is common sense, and in response to similar speculation that assumed it would be 4.

[mneme]

Wow. I did lose track of the game for a while, didn't I?

I've read through Page 5; I'll catch up on pages 2-4 later.

[mneme]

unvote
vote: Drano

(because he's voting me, and because this day is taking -way- too long.

It should be 11 to lynch, yes?

[mneme]

unvote

Don't think Dranko's claim was very convining, but it's too big a risk to lynch a claimed seer at this point in the game -- the wolfies will confirm him or we'll get more info or we'll eventually get a counter-claim; we have plenty of time.

I'm happy to move my vote back to Coron; not sure what's with the esme bandwagon.

[mneme]

Um -- if it's not obvious, I also agree that there's no reason for a counter-claim today; again, we have plenty of time.

[mneme]

Esme makes some good points (and ones I've made myself, in other games) -- I understand the bandwagon against her, given her timing (at a good point to be seen as a Dranko linkage), but don't know that I entirely agree.

On the other hand, while yes, hanging back on votes is a frequent scum tactic, I have to query the legitimacy of an approach that seems to be "you're not voting -- make an ill-advised decision or we'll lynch you." And the math error (yes, 5 votes added to 6 would make "sufficient" pressure, but not to claim) doesn't endear me to esme much either.

End result -- I don't like the esme bandwagon much, but I like the Coolbot bandwagon a -lot- less, and we don't seem to have any actual lurkers to pounce on. So

vote: esme

(not what I'd intended when I started this post, but hey).

[mneme]

Clearly intentional, given the quoted fragment.

Not that I have any complaint, given how often I'm mis-gendered.

[mneme]

Claim or defense.

Or, really, establish a voting pattern, since that's very useful for making inferences later on.

[mneme]

Yes, the gender misrepresentation was intentional to make sure my point was clear.

I should start doing that in response. Though people have less of an excuse with you, since your nick is obviously female (whereas my nick is not only similar to that of a popular female Scummer, but is also the name of a Greek goddess, so confusion is understandable).

Claim or defense.

Or, really, establish a voting pattern, since that's very useful for making inferences later on.

It's nice to see someone else say that establishing a voting pattern is a good thing.

Yes. Despite not being able to 100% trust voting patterns in a large game (or really, any game, but there's more of a margin for larger games), voting pattern analysis wins games, so getting a good record out of everyone is very useful I've lost games due to voting patterns (getting fingered as a scum, not mason, in the Asterix game), and won them nearly entirely due to same (Newbie 99, frex, where day 2/3 were pretty much decided by analying the day 1 voting patterns and forcing votes on day 2).

I don't really like players who say "so, where's the herd leader I should be following?" This game is all about using your own judgement, not relying on someone else's.

unvote
vote: brushwacker

[mneme]

Double post removed by Moderator.

[mneme]

Double post removed by Moderator.

[mneme]

ack. Sorry for the tri-post -- the server is giving really -nasty- rollback errors.

[mneme]

Brush: the "herd leader" isn't the person leading the vote count -- they're the person (or persons) who are, practically speaking, telling everyone how to vote.

[mneme]

Esme: as STD most of your bandwagon is just that. I think the other (and why I was voting for you for a while) was the timing of your attack on "non voters", not the specific sentiment -- there's a huge difference between saying "no bandwagon? X has never voted, why don't we go for her" and "instead of this 6 person bandwagon, why don't we go after sone of the non-voters".

Not to say that you said either, but just pointing out that the -timing- of an attack has as much to do with its reception as its nature -- at least for me, the four biggest scum indicators are Role (ie, a conflict of clamed role or someone fingering you due to a power from their role -- iow, you being caught dead to rights), Connection (seeming connected to other players and trying to hide it), Defensiveness (caring more about defense than trying to winnow out scum; trying to find a scapegoat who isn't you), and Lying.

In this case, there was a possible Connection, the only reason I think the esme bandwagon has any legitimacy at all.

[mneme]

Um. FWIW...if you're already on the bandwagon, you're not in much of a position to call for a claim. It's those considering hopping onto it who have a good case for that.

[mneme]

I mean, like, what's the threat here? "If you don't claim, I'll vote for you even harder?"

Yes, I know, STD's call for claim was at least somewhat legitimate.

[mneme]

What can she do besides claim? it's not like the bandwagon is going to end with out it. People don't just back off for no reason.

Yes, actually, they do. You see, if 50% of the town doesn't agree with a bandwagon, it doesn't happen, and eventually the proponents go off somewhere else. A bandwagon either lynches or loses traction.

STD: apologize for taking what people said at face value.

vote: milkman

The "what can she do? She has no hope except to claim" garbage seems more a scum indicator than anything else. And he pointed the req to claim at STD. And the "no lynch" thing (though that feels like an honest mistake).

I can't help but find Stam suspicious as well.

[mneme]

Coolbot: while I do think her activity has been suspicious, I'm a little skeptical of your claims about Esme. (and she has only advocated votes for non-votes as a possible option once). I find milkman and Stam's behvior to be more suspicous, honestly.

[mneme]

brush: the reason for the wagon on milkman was that he was calling for a pointless roleclaim (eg, "the bandwagon on this person (esme) has stalled, so she should roleclaim"). Since open, untrusted information helps scum more than it helps the town, especially early (it helps them choose good roleclaims, and makes it easier for them to choose their targets), this is fairly scummy.

[mneme]

bleah.

Esme, claim or I'll switch votes -- we cannot afford to miss a lynch tonight, and you're the lucky lady with a bandwagon.

[mneme]

Nanook: Depends. Villager is the easiest claim, but isn't a particularly safe claim.

[mneme]

Given the Herbalist (not Angel), I don't think we can assume this game has the same role names as every other werewolf game.

As such, there are many, many people I'd rather lynch than our "claimed townies".

unvote (milkman lynch isn't going anywhere
vote: Coron

[mneme]

All I ask is that you either lynch esme today or tomorrow. If you lynch her today and she is scum, by all means lynch me. If you lynch me today and it shows I'm a townie, lynch her tomorrow.

This makes no sense.
It doesn't even have logical consistency. brushhopper, if you're going to vote yourself, feel free -- I don't mind.

unovte
vote: brushopper

[mneme]

Grats, scum.

Getting killed off on Night 2 stinks,. though (especially after having my night 1 investigation killed out from under me).

I think the most important problem the town had was the lack of an effective doc -- the werewolves had an uber-Alpha, who could stop docs, mess up investigations, etc. That with no competing bad guy group just made things tough.

[mneme]

Pooky: Beauty and the Beast, only with a town massacre at the end? Not the ending I remember.

You -so- should have been lynched way so early. Not sure why milkman/werebear lived either.