Mini 837 - Stratego Mafia! (Game Over!)

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

/confirm

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Agree with Ortohoops about FOS’ being more a tool of scum than of town. However, they are used enough by the town as well that it’s a minor point.

Dramonic’s dislike of early wagons more suggests uselessness to me than scum.

First, there has to be some non-arbitrary deliniation between town and mafia. Simply saying something like "the Colonol is scum and the Major is town" makes no sense. It is thus highly likely that these three pieces, which are distinctly separate from the rest, are anti-town.

Uh no. If there was a non-arbitrary delineation then the game could be broken upon a successful lynch and a mass claim. Charter is a better mod than that. Take for example his last theme game that I was a part of South Park mafia featured Stan, Tweak, and Chef as scum and Cartman as an SK. Anyone with experience with the show would be able to tell you that Cartman might make sense as an SK, but there’s no logical reason for the mafia to be mafia or for them to be grouped together.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I disagree with WLC’s assertion that scum inherently post with more confidence and more certainty that town. I’ve seen players of both alignment post in both fashion, it’s far more based on personality then it is on alignment.

Sajin’s post does nothing for me and his biggest point is based around claiming that Gorrad’s PM/role is different from his own. However, without knowing Sajin’s role that knowledge isn’t really useful to an outsider.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Breadcrumbs can come from any role. I find both sides of the the "he insinuated this" argument stupid. How about we hear it from the horses mouth instead of arguing over what he did or did not do.

I think this still refers to Gorrad and I find it a bit odd you went from "Gorrad is scum lynch the hell out of him" because of his comment to "let's wait and see what he says". It looks to me like you've moved strongly away from your previous statement.

At least one

of the players not voting currently is guaranteed to be scum.

You may be right since I can't speak towards the other players in this camp, but if this is the sole basis of your reasoning then I find it off-target. My hypothesis is that scum are more likely to behave even in the most basic ways such as post count and votes cast nearer to the middle. The outliers; those, for example, not voting or who have voted several (four or more times) are more likely to be town. This sort of analysis is usually more helpful earlier in the game as the game goes along there's a regression towards the mean for everyone and as days pass the dynamics shift in different ways.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Also, no use bandwagonning me, I'm town.

I must admit to getting a chuckle out of the simple naivete of this line.

I'd also love to hear your explanation of his [Gorrad's?] confirmation.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

This line of discussion does absolutely nothing for me, I completely expect the delimitation between town and scum to arbitrary. Dramonic is just a useless player in my view, but he reads town to me. I'm going to do a re-read and put together a top three of scummy players.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Currently you are in absolutely no position to say that DDD.

I didn't get run up to L-1 for my shoddy play and I don't keep rambling on with pointless setup speculation, so yeah I am in a position to say that.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Anyways, I went back through the earlier posts looking for habits I've come to associate with the person having a higher probability of being scum and found five people who I think are a cut above... Synx, Vaya, EB, Gorrad, and Hoopla.

For now I believe Gorrad's early behavior with the breadcrumbing (and what's the point of breadcrumbing if no one is likely to decipher the meaning of your crumb or that it's so broad that it could be multiple things) to be unlikely to be more likely to be town than scum. Hoopla's post read very neutral right now to me so for now she rest towards the bottom of this list. I don't like EB's quick self meta defense, but I don't have much room to talk as I've done the same thing as town. Which leaves Synx and Vaya as the two people I believe most likely to be scum. Of the two I think Synx is currently the better choice...

Vote: Synx

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, the crumb is meant to back up a possible future claim, not be there after death, so it shouldn't be deciphered.

I can come up with at least three seperate claims based off that date which restricts you a little bit, but it'll hardly authenticate any claim you might happen to make later.

@DDD
Why do you think I'm scummy?

Besides fitting one of the general archetypes I look for you've almost completely iso'ed so far on poor bumbling dramonic. I'm inherently suspicious of people on wagons I don't like.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

V/LA (Camping) through late Sunday and possibly even Monday

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Of all the people at two votes I'd prefer we run up Synx and then Sajin right now. I could also abide by Gorrad and AGM lynches. Dramonic and Vaya need to move their vote/vote at all to a more likely target so we can use those wagons to both evaluate people and secure a lynch.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Of all the people at two votes I'd prefer we run up Synx and then Sajin right now. I could also abide by Gorrad and AGM lynches. Dramonic and Vaya need to move their vote/vote at all to a more likely target so we can use those wagons to both evaluate people and secure a lynch.

Why would dramonic need to move his vote? I unvoted Gorrad and voted ortolan in the meanwhile, so dramonic is on a wagon with 2 votes (which there seem to be too much of).

I was working off the last vote count and missed that he had moved his vote since then.

Sajin, do you have a history of not discussing things while scum can still talk and if so link?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Unvote; Vote: Sajin

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Anyways, I went back through the earlier posts looking for habits I've come to associate with the person having a higher probability of being scum and found five people who I think are a cut above... Synx, Vaya, EB, Gorrad, and Hoopla.

For now I believe Gorrad's early behavior with the breadcrumbing (and what's the point of breadcrumbing if no one is likely to decipher the meaning of your crumb or that it's so broad that it could be multiple things) to be unlikely to be more likely to be town than scum. Hoopla's post read very neutral right now to me so for now she rest towards the bottom of this list. I don't like EB's quick self meta defense, but I don't have much room to talk as I've done the same thing as town.

Which leaves Synx and Vaya as the two people I believe most likely to be scum. Of the two I think Synx is currently the better choice...

Vote: Synx

Course I missed on WLC, but he was easily found after defending Synx.

I was also extremely annoyed the last two days when the town decided that outguessing the mod was a sound scum hunting technique. I know I was dead like four days before that, but I thought I'd made it clear that trying to pick apart the setup like that was going to fail and fail hard.