Mini 862 ~ Mafia of Order (Game Over!)

[Kmd4390]

Ok, I suck. Umm. This game needs another look from me. Based on my earlier reads, Fuzzy and Saber are the most likely scum, but I want to look again considering how poor my reads were on DDD and Cobalt. I'll get around to that within the next couple of days. Maybe in my favorite way (aka VC analysis).

[Kmd4390]

Kmd, we are doing vote count analysis today for sure.

That works. I have class in an hour though and it's a 30 minute drive so I need to get in the shower. I have to pick up pictures after class and work after that. I should be home around 3 AM (12 hours from now), so I'll try to do my analysis after that.

Also, wtf happened to all of your posts in this game? Everything from the first two days disappeared.

The fuck?!?

Anyone who knows anything about this needs to speak up. I'm interested to see how many posts the Mod says I've used in the next vote count.

You need to explain what you meant when you said that 'unless someone has another explanation of where posts came from Cobalt is scum'..or whatever the direct quote was. That made no sense to me.

I don't have time to look who, but someone claimed that everyone gets 7 posts while they were alive. What I said was that this person was telling the truth unless someone had another explanation for people getting 7 posts.

Kmd, I'd also like your thoughts on why you wouldn't receive posts when everyone else apparently did. Did you receive any last night? (<--I want kmd to answer this before anyone else chimes in please).

lol That was kind of a joke. I technically recieved posts. I don't know how many though. Don't worry, it will make sense when I eventually fullclaim.

What are the unclaimed players' thoughts on mass claim?

Why would we massclaim now?

[Kmd4390]

@Kmd-we should mass claim because it could be lylo and there aren't even that many players left who haven't claimed. I don't see any reason not to at this point. Additionally, there is the potential to catch someone in a lie depending on LL's investigation.

Why are you voting if you assume we are likely in LYLO and want to massclaim?

@Goat-Glad to see you are coming around on DT. I let it go yesterday because you were so opposed to it, but the main reason I pushed on him was Juls wanting him dead so hard on Day 1. She also wanted Sotty dead. I figured one of those two were the ones who sent the kill, with DT seeming more likely. Clearly I was correct that it wasn't Sotty.

You dropped it just because Goat was opposed to it? And why not mention the Juls thing yesterday?

I know what you are saying about the nagging suspicion because I feel the same way about you, but its entirely in a "I don't find this guy suspicious at all and that worries the hell out of me" kind of way.

Too townie?

@KMD
:S I'm just mighty confused to why your posts got deleted. According to Vi's post count they still count towards post usage so the only other alternative that makes sense is that you struck a nerve with someone.

Again: my questions and requests:

1. Meta links to your games preferably 1 scum and 1 townie. Preferably the game where you pointed out scum with your gut.

2. I originally quoted you but I guess there is nothing to double check back: You said that DDD appeared scummy at the time of the day one wagon. But you also said you voted DDD out of admission that he was the more likely lynch. Why?

3. You're planning a VC analysis after your original gut call on DDD and Cobalt? Why didn't you do any other analysis before when I attacked you on your gut calls?

Yeah, no clue about the posts being gone. Either someone will say something about it or scum decided to be assholes on me.

1. Ok, I'll get around to this. I just got home from work and it's 5AM...

2. I had DDD as my second suspect very early in the game. The ONLY reason I opposed VP's idea to start a DDD wagon is because it was late in the day and we already had 3 wagons, 2 of which I could support. Adding a 4th made absolutely no sense. When the wagon reached the level of the others, and the Cobalt lynch looked unlikely, DDD was the best place for my vote because he was my next suspect and more likely a lynch than Cobalt (my first suspect).

3. Day 3 is the best time for VC analysis. Day 1 is the worst time for it.

[Kmd4390]

Actually, even assuming three scum, we aren't in lylo unless there is some hidden kill out there. Apart from that, I'm very happy with my vote and I want Sens to know that. He intentionally avoiding the game yesterday and thus should swing for it. He can post or die for all I care.

Fair enough.

Do you think Sens is scum or do you just disagree with his play?

I'm sorry, but even though I would really love to lynch sensfan and have been pushing for it, I am slightly alarmed with how quick he's been BW with no other real scumhunting going on.

This sounds like something a scumbuddy would say after he's been distancing from his buddy, but is too hesitant to bus when a wagon starts.

--------------

DT, /in-Vitational 4 is my most recently completed town game. Star Control is my most recently completed scum game.

I was ok with both the DDD lynch and the Saber lynch. I slightly preferred DDD, but when I voted Saber, I thought he had more votes and deadline was just hours away.

"Post analysis" doesn't have quite the effect that a successful VC analysis has. Hell, while we're doing links, Newbie 734 was the first time I used VC analysis. My top scum read was lynched and flipped town. My second scum read was NK'd. I was lost, so I decided to do something new. In this post, I use VC analysis, completely change my suspects to two players who I had town reads on. We lynch those two players back to back and they're the two scum.

Analysis in new post due to it's length.

Fixed tag. ~Vi

[Kmd4390]

Debonair Danny DiPietro

(LYNCH) ~ Goatrevolt,

Sotty7, Juls,

saberwolf, VP Baltar, fuzzylightning, Kmd4390
saberwolf (L-2) ~ DTMaster,

Debonair Danny DiPietro

, Locke Lamora,

Cobalt

, SensFan

As you will know if you have read the VC analysis I linked to just now, I believe a scum was on the mislynch. In all of the VC analysis(what's the plural of that?) I have ever done, this has ALWAYS been true. Fuzzy and myself voted to avoid a no lynch. This is NOT a town tell, but it's not a scumtell either unless the opposing wagon (Saber) is scum. That means no tell on Fuzzy.

Goat voted DDD first after VP suggested a new wagon, specifically on DDD. Goat gives a well-reasoned vote. Says he doesn't like the Starry vote as much as he did when he made it. Never really goes back and votes Saber, so that's consistent. Goat is probably town.

Sotty and Juls have both flipped town.

That leaves Saber and VP. Saber probably should have voted DDD regardless out of self-preservation. But he gives no reason (conserving posts, but using one to call Sens a dick) and in his next post says DDD's refusal to claim was his reason for voting.

VP was the one who wanted the wagon, yet he was slow to jump on it.

Saber and VP are probably scum.

Now I expect that the third scum probably stayed off of the mislynch. Scum don't like to vote together.

DT hid behind a very lightly reasoned Saber vote. He hasn't really come back to Saber except an FoS and a later lurker callout. Scumpartner found?

Locke gives a fairly reasoned "I won't be here for deadline, so here are my thoughts and my vote" kind of post, resulting in a Saber vote. Locke is probably town.

Sens doesn't really post his reasons for voting Saber. He later says he was conserving posts. Not sure if I like this or not to be honest.

Cobalt

(LYNCH) ~ SensFan, Kmd4390, Locke Lamora, fuzzylightning, VP Baltar,

Sotty7

fuzzylightning (L-3) ~

Cobalt

, saberwolf, Goatrevolt
Kmd4390 (L-5) ~ DTMaster

Ok, let's re-visit the "scum on a mislynch" thing. Sotty is confirmed dead town. VP voted near deadline (nulltell).

Sens voted first (consistent with Day 1 opinion). Then me, same thing. Locke had a good reason to vote. Fuzzy voted with preference over the Locke lynch. This wagon actually looks relatively clean. I'm going to pick VP and Fuzzy as the most likely scum votes.

Saber gave no reason for voting Fuzzy. Goat gave a deadline vote (null).

DT voted me. I never like votes alone at a deadline.

I wonder if scum thought Cobalt was a traitor or something with the whole fakeclaim thing.

Scumlist in next post (length).

[Kmd4390]

So, here's the scumlist I can generate with this VC analysis (Scummiest on top of all lists, towniest at bottom of all lists):
Scum:
Saber- Poor reasoning to wagon-hop on DDD. No reason to vote Fuzzy over Cobalt.
VP-Started a DDD wagon, but voted late on it. Null Cobalt vote.

Possible Scum:
DT-Very early Saber vote and newly found connection to Saber. Voted alone on Day 2.

Neutral:
Fuzzy- Null DDD vote. Voted Cobalt just as an option over Locke.
Sens- Saber vote could go either way as could Cobalt vote.

Town:
Locke-Good Saber vote. Good Cobalt vote.
Goat- Good DDD and Fuzzy votes.
Kmd- Duh.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Saberwolf

[Kmd4390]

So, here's the scumlist I can generate with this VC analysis (Scummiest on top of all lists, towniest at bottom of all lists):
Scum:
Saber- Poor reasoning to wagon-hop on DDD. No reason to vote Fuzzy over Cobalt.
VP-Started a DDD wagon, but voted late on it. Null Cobalt vote.

Possible Scum:
DT-Very early Saber vote and newly found connection to Saber. Voted alone on Day 2.

Neutral:
Fuzzy- Null DDD vote. Voted Cobalt just as an option over Locke.
Sens- Saber vote could go either way as could Cobalt vote.

Town:
Locke-Good Saber vote. Good Cobalt vote.
Goat- Good DDD and Fuzzy votes.
Kmd- Duh.

I'm sorry, but I think your analysis sucks balls, esp as it focuses mainly on me being scum for the rest of your analysis to fall into place. If you vote me and I flip town, you're entire analysis is shot, and you contributed nothing again.

The only thing that relies on you being scum is you and partially DT. VP could be scum either way. DT could still be scum, even though it wouldn't be as likely. Fuzzy or Sens would probably be scum if you aren't. Goat and Locke are town either way. So I have no idea where you are getting that all of my reads rely on you being scum. All I did regarding you is call you scum and point out a connection to DT.

[Kmd4390]

VP, Fuzzy would probably be scum if it weren't for his claim. My gut had him as scum pretty much all game, but the claim does not make sense from a scum perspective. The posts are coming from somewhere and nobody seems to have other information, so that confirms that at the very least, Fuzzy knows where the posts are coming from. I can't see a passive scum role that gives everyone free posts. Actually, he should probably be below Sens on my list.

[Kmd4390]

Goat, it was a poor transfer of information. The first (where I call it null) was where I actually had your post in front of me. The second (where I call it good) was from memory. I'm still pretty convinced you are town either way and would lynch anyone before you except Locke and

maybe

Fuzzy.

Claim:
Cap-Immune. I am unaffected by any post caps in this game. The Voice of Yune thing is that it's possible to gain more posts and I'm specifically told that I won't be told to do that.

[Kmd4390]

Shinon.

[Kmd4390]

Shinon.

This is all your role name says? If not, I'd like the rest of it.

It says Shinon, Town Individual and then cap immune in parenthesis.

we don't have a lot to work from IMO.

Maybe on Day 1, town might have this mentality (I personally wouldn't), but on Day 3? Come on.

Let's lynch this scum after massclaim is over.

LL: I don't understand what is odd about me saying: claim if you have a guilty if you already found one (ie you found someone false claimed). It's equivilent to saying to the cop: claim if you have a guilty. Unless there are sanities involved with your role or something along the lines

The mechanics of his role mean if he has a guilty, he may not know it until the person claims. Even then, it's unlikely that his result catches them. It might make it harder for the scum to claim though knowing that Locke may have results on them. If we get a really bad claim, it may be due to Locke scaring scum. He doesn't have to claim his result until everyone else has claimed.

KMD: I don't disagree with vote analysis, I do however disagree with gut calls being your focus on day 1. Your example showed the falicy caused by VC and also your expressed that you reevaulated the too townie argument to catch scum after your VC failed. This means a combintation of all types of analysis is needed. But this is off topic now.

Wait, what? You lost me here. What fallacy? Where is too townie thrown into the mix here? And where did the analysis fail?

Your case is... abit too heavy in confirmation bias. Read Londontown Mafia (which the wolves did a good job and the town uterlly destroyed themselves, in my wiki) where confirmation bias actually killed the town.

Where does stating reads based on analysis have anything to do with confirmation bias? And I don't read games I'm not a part of. I don't have the time.

Also explain to me how the lone vote is scummy? I can understand if X person flipped scum then the lone vote on the wagon would implicate the person. But Cobalt flipped town on day 2 after I agreed with him flavour wise. :S

Trying to avoid bandwagoning. Staying off the mislynch. From town's perspective in a near-deadline situation, you'd have been more willing to jump a wagon to avoid no lynch or do more to convince others to follow you.

Also your linkage case on me is: I would focus on sabre to attack at the end of day 1. Note though that you were also one of my main suspects at the end of the first day. Why did you ignore this fact when I attacked both you and sabre?

You seemed to be actually willing to lynch me. You seemed to be attacking Saber for the sake of attacking him. The second sounds like distancing.

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote Sens

. L-1. Someone get in here and hammer.

VP, just because you are telling everyone what to do doesn't mean you are confirmed town. I still think you are scum. How the hell is Locke confirmed scum? He's the most likely player to be town in this entire game aside from Goat. I would like his results though. He said he'd give those..

[Kmd4390]

Still pretty sure Saber is scum.

Saber, why are you voting so soon in LYLO?

I think the scum team is Saber/VP/DT. Someone tell me why I'm right or wrong.

[Kmd4390]

1. My vote alone means nothing. It would require the entire scumteam to quicklynch, which would be hard to orchestrate, assuming I am not scum and that there are in fact 3 scum.

Hard, but possible. If I were the scumteam, I'd have discussed a time of day or something when everyone can always be online. Or some kind of code or something.

2. How do you know it's 3 scum and not 2 scum?

It's a mini. It's not always 3 scum, but that's the most likely situation.

3. I know your scumteam theory is wrong, because I know I'm town. Obv that isn't good enough by itself, but dispite my uneasiness about VP, he is being rather pro-town. DTMaster I could see being scum, as he has been rather lurkish.

Elaborate on your wishy washy stance on VP. I want something more solid than uneasiness, but protown. Would you be willing to lynch DT today?

I find it suspicious that:

the one with no max cap is still alive
the one who basically is our claimed cop is still alive

Why? It's not looking like people are going to run out of posts soon anyway. And obviously, scum are trying to fuck with us. The Sens kill makes no sense at all unless newbscum saw Sens attack them or something. I'm not going to speculate on the NK though. Too much of a brain cramp.

should we have everyone claim again, just to be safe?

What would this accomplish?

Kmd, what do you think of LL's claim not having anywhere near the town format? Why do you keep ignoring this question?

It's just the way he claimed it. Not everyone goes to their Role PM and quotes it exactly. I personally don't most of the time.

Furthermore, I've yet to see an actual case from you, so it's time to actually make sense. Your VC analysis this game was major fail (which is atypical for you as town), so I want to hear actual reasons for your "scum team". Also, if those are your scum picks, how do you reconcile me being the lead driver on the Day 2 DT wagon?

I don't see the problem with the VC analysis. And distancing isn't impossible.

Town Individual? Seriously.

Outguessing the Mod? Seriously.

[Kmd4390]

@KMD
I expected Shinion: Town Sniper. I smell fake claim.

Outguessing the Mod is bad, especially this Mod. Also, what made you think we'd have a "sniper" (vig?) when there's only been one kill each night?

1. In the example you gave us, you showed us that when you used VC analysis initially you were killing VTs. Then you had to adjust your case with the too townie argument to actually find scum. Aka. More other forms of analysis + VC = strong argument. This is off topic now. The fallacy comes from tunnel warfare here.

Um, no. I never used any too townie argument.

No, it's not "just the way he claimed it". It very clearly has information that is not included in a town PM. Again, for your ease of reference:

Town PM looks like this format: Player Name, TOWNIE (TITLE) (ROLE)

LL claimed: Player Name, right hand of something something

Those are not even close, nor is it simply the correct information that was put in the wrong order. It is DIFFERENT information to that of the town PM. LL has not struck me as someone who even knows the flavor in this game, so I am quite certain he had to look at his role PM before claiming. You can keep making all kinds of excuses if you'd like, but the evidence is right there for anyone to see.

So you think the scum PM is formatted differently than town or.. what? I'm not seeing the argument. PM structure is a bad arument anyway.

The problem with your VC analysis is that the data presented does not lead to the conclusions you proposed. You also make a lot of excuses in it for players with shady votes. I'll hopefully have the time to do one myself today and put something proper up.

There are no excuses. Just noticing logical thought processes. I'm interested in seeing what you come up with though.

As far as distancing goes, yeah I would surely come off of the leading wagon at that time three days from deadline with a comprehensive case on my buddy that actually got significant support. That's a pretty well thought out theory you have there.

*Shrug*. I've done similar things in the past.

[Kmd4390]

Locke, your votes show an actual thought process of "who is town/scum?". I'm not saying you've played a great game. I'm saying that I can follow your posts as a town thought process.

DT, in the game I linked, ALL of my remaining reads were town reads. Nothing I could have done would have done anything other than change a stance. No, I didn't use the "too townie" argument. I never said "Player A is so town that they have to be scum". I looked at where the votes landed at the end of each day and compared them with logical scum patterns. I found both scum using those patterns. I've tried to apply the same analysis to almost every game I've played since and it's been somewhat successful.

Saber, if you were too lazy to check everyone's claims again, how would you

possibly

have caught anyone changing their claim?

Locke, I explained my thinking on DDD. I didn't want to start a new wagon regardless of who it was on. But with deadline so close, and the wagon building anyway, I was willing to hop on, especially considering I called him scum before the wagon ever popped up. And yeah, Fuzzy's play has been scummy (although I thought Cobalt and DDD were scummier and still think Saber, VP, and DT are scummier), but his ability is pretty much confirmed.

[Kmd4390]

Oh I missed this.

Kmd, why did you say this after your D1 posts were erased:

Anyone who knows anything about this needs to speak up. I'm interested to see how many posts the Mod says I've used in the next vote count.

When you know you have infinite posts? What would it matter how many posts the vote count says you used?
?

Curiosity. More about whatever ability erased my posts than anything. I thought we might see it again, but we haven't so far.

[Kmd4390]

VP, in detail, what do you think about Fuzzy's claim?

[Kmd4390]

No, it's not off topic and it's not theory talk. I used a method of scumhunting and would prefer that you and the rest of the players in this game understand what it is and how it works. The fact that you call it "too townie" means you either don't understand it or are intentionally making it look bad. Personally, I think that regardless of your alignment, you don't understand it.

[Kmd4390]

@KMD
The point I was trying to get across is: we should rely on more forms of analysis rather then just VC. I see it as a viable tactic, but that's the point. The whole "too townie argument" is you used more reasoning based on your VC analysis to find scum in those meta games.

Of course. Look at what people are saying and see if anything is scummy/townie. Determine likely (in)accuracy of claims. Use gut. Look at votes. After all of this, decide who is scum and lay a vote. The VC analysis is part of this process.

That's not the "too townie" argument at all.

---------------

In case of a Fuzzy modkill (assumes 3 scum, no 3rd party):
Possibility A- No Lynch
------Fuzzy is town
--------------We lose.
------Fuzzy is scum
---------------Great. We get another day to find his buddies.
Possibility B- Lynch Fuzzy
------He is town.
---------------We lose.
-------He is scum
---------------Great. We get another day to find his buddies.
Possibility C- Lynch someone else
------Lynch is town, Fuzzy is scum
----------------Scum win
------Lynch is scum, Fuzzy is town
----------------Scum win
------Lynch and Fuzzy are both town
----------------Scum win
------Lynch and Fuzzy are both scum
----------------Great. We get another day to find their buddy.

In case of a Fuzzy modkill (assumes 2 scum and a 3rd party):
Possibility A- No Lynch
------Fuzzy is town
---------------Scum kill 3rd party
-------------------------LYLO
---------------Scum kill town
-------------------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left.
-------Fuzzy is scum
---------------Great. Another day to find his buddy.
-------Fuzzy is 3rd party
----------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left
Possibility B-Lynch Fuzzy
------Fuzzy is town
---------------Scum kill 3rd party
-------------------------LYLO
---------------Scum kill town
-------------------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left.
-------Fuzzy is scum
---------------Great. Another day to find his buddy.
-------Fuzzy is 3rd party
----------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left
Possibility C-Lynch someone else
-------Lynch is town, Fuzzy is scum
----------------Scum kill town
-------------------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left (town can only win with help from 3rd party)
----------------Scum kill 3rd party
-------------------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left
-------Lynch is scum, Fuzzy is town
----------------Scum kill town
-------------------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left (town can only win with help from 3rd party)
----------------Scum kill 3rd party
-------------------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left
-------Lynch and Fuzzy are both town
----------------Scum kill town
-------------------------Scum win, pending 3rd party's role
----------------Scum kill 3rd party
--------------------------Scum win
-------One of lynch/Fuzzy is 3rd party. Other is town.
----------------Scum win
--------One of lynch/Fuzzy is 3rd party. Other is scum.
----------------LYLO, knowing there are only 2 scum left.

Everything above assumes scum's kills go through successfully.

Analysis:
Possibility A/B)A No Lynch and Fuzzy lynch are the same thing (obviously)
Pros: If Fuzzy is scum, good for us.
Cons: If Fuzzy is non-scum, we lose unless a 3rd party exists.
Possibility C)
Pros: Higher chance of hitting at least one non-town
Cons: We can only win if either Fuzzy is non-town or we lynch non-town.

Conclusions:
1)A no lynch or Fuzzy lynch probably benefits us most if Fuzzy is modkilled.
2)If Fuzzy shows up and isn't modkilled, we'd better be able to pull together a lynch or we're fucked.
3) Fuzzy is fucking us over not being around. Scum play or bad town play?

Vote Fuzzy

Reasons: It's the best play there is right now with him dying regardless. No lynch fucks us if he shows up. Lynching someone else fucks us if he doesn't. If Fuzzy shows up, I want to lynch Saber, but could support a lynch of VP or DT. If not, he's our lynch. If he shows up just before deadline, he needs to be lynched unless enough of us are online to pull together another wagon.

[Kmd4390]

Wait.

Fuzzy town means we lose unless there's a 3rd party or he actually shows up. Shit.

But if there are 3 scum and we lynch someone else, scum win unless both are scum.

So lynching Fuzzytown is bad if there are 3 scum. Lynching someone else doesn't affect this. So Fuzzy being town hurts us regardless in a 3 scum scenario.

In a 2 scum, 1 3rd party scenario, we can't lose by lynching Fuzzy. Lynching someone else drastically broadens the possibilities.

Oh, and I accidentally left out 2 scum/3rd party -> lynch someone else -> both scum = 4 players deadling with only a 3rd party remaining.

Basically, we need Fuzzy to show up. If he doesn't, we need to lynch him.

[Kmd4390]

I almost want to suggest we pull together a quicklynch because I think Fuzzy is town. That way, Fuzzy lives and we increase our chances of hitting scum. But the only way that works is if:
1)All 4 non-Fuzzy, non-scum agree on a lynch AND our choice is scum. (if there is a non-Fuzzy 3rd party, they'd have to agree too)
OR
2)Scum decide to bus our choice.
OR
3)Our choice is town and we fuck up.
OR
4)Fuzzy is scum and we can get 4 out of the 5 other non-scum to agree, in which case lynching Fuzzy is good anyway.
OR
5)We choose incorrectly and scum help us mislynch
OR
6)We find the 3rd party if it exists. Scum might help us here. We are in LYLO tomorrow.

We have a lot of options and not many even look that good. I'm thinking a Fuzzy lynch is probably better than a quicklynch or a last minute lynch that kills both our choice and Fuzzy.

[Kmd4390]

Saber, can you weigh in while you are online please?

[Kmd4390]

Locke being traitor is hilarious. Thought for sure he was town and we had a 3rd party in Saber or VP.

This game was fun.

I'm afraid I'm going to need to redact this... sorry. ~Vi

DT, I enjoyed being scum with you.

Vi, great modding.

[Kmd4390]

VP, yeah, I was 3rdpartyhunting for most of the game because I only knew about DT and myself being scum.

Juls, you had to go. You were dangerous. Good scumhunting though.

[Kmd4390]

No, I honestly thought your posts looked like they followed a town thought process of trying to decide who was scum.

[Kmd4390]

But hey, my computer is up and running again. Rematch anyone?

Same teams?

Actually, I was just discussing with someone that I wanted to run a setup that had already been run before for my next Mini Theme. I could do this one again (with a few slight changes) if enough people would like.

^I want to do this one time. Get a game at random and use the same setup over again. Wonder how long it would take before someone finds the original.