Also, boo at rule 8!
Mini 892 - Mayor Mafia (GAME OVER)
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Hoopla
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i think i know who should be mayor, but i'm not ready to talk about it in confirmations, as i assume mafia have the ability to talk during this phase.
Also, boo at rule 8!
08. It is also not allowed to use coding, small or invisible text to hide information in your messages inside the thread. (note that coding includes simple codes such as hiding a word in the first letters of each paragraph of a post)-
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Hoopla
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I really think it isn't a brilliant idea to talk too much about mayor choices, set-up discussion, or anything that could be alignment telling until this 72 hour window is closed. Scum will most likely be able to talk during this period, and I don't want to give them three days worth of day-talking and planning if this game psuedo-begins now.I will post in the thread (which can be found HERE) and send all players a pm when the game starts. The start of the game will be at least 72 hours after I have sent out the rolepms. If I need to replace people pre-game, the start of the game will be later.
I encourage everyone to post sparingly or chat about non-game related things. But lets not talk about the game until we actually begin.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hi everyone, I've just moved apartments and am having trouble with my internet provider - they expect it to be set up and ready either on Friday or Monday, depending on when a technician can get out here.
I'm at the library now, and I'll try and make a post or two during my downtime, but consider me V/LA for now.
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My reason for voting/supporting Kyle was that I think it's a good idea to lynch the mayor on Day 1 and treat it as a normal day. My reasoning is it's sometimes quite difficult to discern town players on Day 1. We have no mod-confirmed alignments to play with, so it seems frivolous to give someone extra power based on reputation or their early play.
Of the last 64 mini normals, only 13 times has scum been lynched Day 1. This is slightly worse than random, probably due to scum's ability to work together to avoid it. If a town lynch is likely, I think it will be very beneficial to have confirmed town choosing the mayor for Day 2. I can easily see this mechanic being exploited by scum, and think arbitrary power is unnecessary until we have viable town reads.-
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Hoopla
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Some more thoughts while I'm still here:
The monkeyman wagon is good - he's at L-2 I believe. But I'm fine with putting him at L-1 considering we can't lynch until we've chosen a mayor. I don't think his blanket suspicion was bad, but the reaction to his own wagon was definitely off.
Re my support for mayor: I'd still prefer mayoring whoever we make our D1 lynch candidate, and don't intend to support mayoring anyone else until I hear sound reasoning behind why this would be a good idea on D1.
Vote: Monkeyman-
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Hoopla
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Maoi: This is how I interpretted the rule for lynching/mayoring. We can't lynch until a mayor has been chosen. Forced mayordom only comes if we reach the deadline without a majority on mayor supports.MichelSableheart wrote:23. At the beginning of the game, the players decide who gets this role. This decission works as a normal lynching decission, except that votes should readSupport: Player NameandUnsupport: Player Name.. If, at the end of the day, no player has received the support of the majority of players, the player with the most support will become mayor. If there is a tie, the first player to have reached the highest amount of support will become mayor. If noone has received any support, a random player will become mayor.Day 1 can't end through a lynch before a mayor has been chosen
SaintKerrigan: The purpose of lynching the mayor is so we have a confirmed alignment choosing the mayor for Day 2, as the mayor chooses his successor upon death. This is better than making an unsure choice on Day 1. We have little information to work with, and I can see this mechanic being more useful onDay 1to scum than town. Therefore we should treat this day normally, and not support a mayor until we decide who to lynch, so we can mayor them.-
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Hoopla
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The purpose of a guarenteed alignment choosing the mayor means if it's town, we know motivations are pure. Yes, that player could still be wrong, but I'd favour one confirmed town player's choice, over a whole town suspectable to manipulation.
I quoted stats from the last 64 games for a reason. In all of these games, only 13 times has scum been lynched Day 1. This is easily worse than random, and illustrates how simple it is for scum to steer wagons on Day 1.
The mayor mechanic is opposite to this. It's about getting a majority on a town player. I think it will be easier for scum to steer these wagons, as there is less emphasis on cases. I expect the mayor to be selected mostly on reputation (on D1 anyway), and that could go to several players. It's a better than average chance we end up with a scum mayor because there is no expectation to explain reasoning beyond reputation or disagreeing with a few posts.
Even if we don't lynch the mayor, we definitely should not choose the mayor before we collectively decide on a lynch. That's about as far as I'm prepared to compromise for now.-
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Hoopla
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We don't lose that many connections - the only one we're eliminating is the mayor lane on D1. Regardless, I think quite a few players may find it difficult spotting scum influence on mayor wagons. It is many times more fraught with WIFOM and guess games (especially on D1), as there is less importance on the outcome of the wagon than a regular lynching wagon. The stances scum could take to the mayor wagons seem highly variable. I don't even know how I'd pick off scum from mayor wagons, as it's the opposite of a normal wagon which is where everyone has honed their radars.Socrates wrote:Re: Hoopla's theory: I don't really see much of an issue with it. My only trepidation with it is that we are putting the decision in the hands of someone a majority of us would agree is very likely scum. That either means we are putting the decision to either scum or a player who isn't playing very well. I don't know.
One other problem: We lose all of those juicy connections we could go back and look at later in the game if we don't elect the old fashioned way. Right now we essentially have two lanes of people forming connections with each other (votes to lynch and votes to become mayor).
But it is a double-edged sword - becoming mayor will come with heavy scrutiny. I can imagine some scum players may feel the extra power of a vote might not be worth the attention, especially early in the game.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I understand. Please give me until tomorrow, and I will make some non-mayor theory game posts. I will have the opportunity then.charter wrote: Can we tone all this mayor theory stuff way down. It seriously is not a huge deal today. I'm quite uneasy about Hoopla, because that's all she's been doing lately, even though she recognizes this. Inundating everyone with mayor theory isn't helpful and is pretty much textbook scummy active lurking.
If you (or anyone) have any major issues you want me to address, let me know and I will get to them first before I type up some more thoughts.-
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Hoopla
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Monkey's claim is fishy to me - it appeared to me to be a sign of desperation, not knowing how to escape the suspicion he's gathered. This could be interpreted either way, but his anxious nature around his wagon is something I would expect less from a town player.
I don't think we should lynch him though. Monkey is more likely to claim cop as cop, than claim cop as scum. I think the value of a potential investigation can be quite damaging for mafia, and if he is truthful, he will likely absorb the night kill (saving us a lynch).
If Monkey is mafia, we have him captured. There is not much difference between lynching him D1 than on D2. In both of these scenarios we have 2 other scum to hit out of everyone else. So if there is little difference in the scenarios if he is mafia, we might as well choose the option that benefits town more if he is town - which is an investigation or night kill. Unless mafia have a roleblocker they run a serious risk in leaving Monkey alive.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Stupid. You really didn't need to claim. I won't be completely upset if Monkey is lynched today, if only because the cop has a slim chance of ever actually being useful now he's outed, but I'd still prefer lynching elsewhere.MonkeyMan576 wrote:
I didn't say L-1 always warrants a claim. Quoting(incorrectly) out of context is scummy. In this case, I felt it warranted a claim. It had nothing to do with the rules.Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
You mean the part where he said he thought he was going to be lynched where basically admitted to not reading the thread and then changing that to “L-1 always warrants a claim” which is also wrong.nhammen wrote:Wait What?? How does the latest back and forth seal anything?
Kyle is a decent choice for that position.-
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Hoopla
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You dislike the plan, but you'll be persuaded once a majority thinks it's a good idea. How would lots of people agreeing change your mind - can't think for yourself?xRECKONERx wrote:I'd say lynch Kyle.
I'm also officially not a fan of Hoopla's plan and would prefer nhammen for Mayor. But if majority agrees on Hoop's plan, I'm on board.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I don't think this point is as relative and poignant as you'd like to think. These supports were based on reputation - they're the equivalent of voting to policy-lynch someone with anti-town meta before they've posted. They are not relevent to this game specifically - and I could see a make-up of 3/2/1 or even 0 scum on that wagon because they weren't comprised of any actual cases. But you're welcome to guess if you have better insight than me.Socrates wrote: Also, remember those 4 support votes Hoopla got that I keep bringing up? I will go on record and say there is absolutely no chance that all 4 of those votes came from town. (ESPECIALLY if hoopla is scum) I want everyone to remember this for posterity when we get some alignment flips. Who would I pick as the worst support out of that bunch? You guessed it: Kyle.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Yep. It felt like a very contrived argument - possibly scumbuddies going for some extreme distancing, although 1/1 is the most likely answer.SerialClergyman wrote:No TRAP SPRUNG for hoopla.
Although if you're going to hang around enough to reply to posts and crack one liners, can you find a bit of time to comment on me vs DDD?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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No.SerialClergyman wrote:Any clue on which one you think is which? How strong is your read? You don't consider town/town an option?
Just kidding. I hadn't really read either of your arguments - and I doubt I'm skilled enough to guess who is who based on what I see now. I think your meta case is rubbish, the prickly thing is funny, but I agree with not lynching the cop (not as strongly as you, perhaps).
I think DDD is right -youshould search the last twenty games with cops and provide good reason there likely won't be blockers etc. as you're the one trying to changehismind - at least this is how I read it.-
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Hoopla
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That I'm scum, and other scum are trying to elect me?Socrates wrote:
That fact that the entirety of the reasoning for the support was based on your reputation only makes me more confident of my opinion.Hoopla wrote:I don't think this point is as relative and poignant as you'd like to think. These supports were based on reputation - they're the equivalent of voting to policy-lynch someone with anti-town meta before they've posted. They are not relevent to this game specifically - and I could see a make-up of 3/2/1 or even 0 scum on that wagon because they weren't comprised of any actual cases. But you're welcome to guess if you have better insight than me.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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If you're going to use meta cases on Day 1, I suggest generating a larger sample size than this - unless you believe you've found an empirical scumtell I commit without knowing, in which case you should share it now so I can be lynched.SerialClergyman wrote:2 and 2, Hoopla - 1 played, 1 read through properly, and 1 each skimmed.
This is part of my problem with you.
Protip: meta cases on day 1 are ridiculous.-
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Hoopla
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charter wrote:To try and undermine Serial's vote on you by contesting just one point is not going to work.
1) AwaySerialClergyman wrote:YAY for internets.
1) Lack of hunting
2) Lack of content
3) Scummy joking/lying yesterday.
4) No fire for finding scum.
5)AllMost of the above fitting scum meta and not town meta.
2) Away
3) I like to joke
4) Away
5) Meta cases are rubbish on D1-
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Hoopla
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Why say it's a meta case then? It's just a cheap excuse to throw suspicion without having to explain anything.SerialClergyman wrote:So the case isn't about meta, it's about your lack of contribution and lack of desire to catch scum. It's just also worth noting that in my experienceo f your play, this is both unusualish for town and usualish for scum.
You must also think I am exceedingly dim to not be aware of how I look as scum. To enrich your meta of me, here is a good game - it's the only other game where I've been on V/LA and risked replacement. My play was poor, and eventually lost the town the game.
This is because I like to spend a lot of time on my posts reading and analysing, and I cannot do this with 60 minutes a day available.-
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Hoopla
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So far, my town reads are Moai and possibly Socrates, however I don't want him to be mayor, mostly because he is pushing it himself and I still want to lynch the mayor.
I have a scum gut feeling about nhammen, SC and possibly charter - I think this is where I'm going to vote, as I disagree with lynching Monkey today. I'll try and explain my gut as I know I'll be berated for not doing so, otherwise.
nhammen's play feels fishy in regards to his play around Monkey - it's like he was tiptoeing around with his meta searches, finding something to incriminate him.
SC is the hardest to explain, but the general vibe I get from his posts is confidence and a willingness to spread suspicion on easy targets - his case on DDD was overreaching, and I dislike how he is setting me up without giving me much chance to reason. I don't think SC would normally be so hasty.
Charter tunnels too much and deserves to die - his recent line of questioning is useless and boring, and isn't doing a good job of creating links, which I can see as its only benefit. But this linking only becomes valid once we have confirmed alignments - and because these questions barely scrape beyond the surface they won't be revisited once alignments do flip.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Haha, I'm sorry I'm not finding it as easy as you to delude myself into believing my reads are better than random on Day 1. My reads aren't badly formulated, they're just weak, and I acknowledge that.
You seem hung up that I'm not firey (wtf, seriously?), that has nothing to do with my town game or my ability to scumhunt. I've NEVER been able to catch scum on day one, and the burden of proficiency you have me under is ridiculous. Why are you expecting so much more from my reads compared to everyone else? You're holding me to unfair standards.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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You are! I seriously think you're overvaluing my ability as town. I have no idea which games you're basing my town meta on.SerialClergyman wrote:
Well, two things. Firstly - I do hold everyone in the game to different standards. Because you're different players. If you performed at an empking level for the first day, I'd be suspicious, whereas if empking did, I wouldn't be. Such is life. Secondly, I never asked you to be successful, just to try. When I say fire, I mean desire to catch scum, and I don't see any.You're holding me to unfair standards.
For what it's worth, I don't think my gut is worthless - but I think I am the only sane one with a realistic outlook on what to expect from day 1. I have shared my opinion and you know where I stand on most issues, but Iabsolutelyrefuse to pretend my opinions are worth anything substancial on Day 1. It may look like a weak excuse, but it's the only truthful way I can accurately summarise how I feel.
I don't understand where the aggressive = Hooplatown thing surfaced from, but I'd suggest that attribute is mostly based on how I feel, and how active the rest of the town is.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Why did you comment on the colour, and not my question? The post has no meaning beyond me wanting to post in a colour - that's the rules.SerialClergyman wrote:And since noone has noticed it, and I know you're the queen of hidden meanings, what's with the indigo post, hoopla?
I'm going to attempt to make some better posts soon.-
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Hoopla
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Hi Socrates.
I don't have a problem with kyle - I think SC made the point earlier, it's not a bad thing having these sort of players alive beyond day 1 as they're easy to read. But it's a double-edged sword too, as it's almost one less pair of eyes (if town) able to analyse play and catch scum. I'd like kyle to make a bit more effort, but I can't honestly suggest this without people violently spewing whatever they're drinking from their mouthes.Socrates wrote: Hoopla, I would love to hear your thoughts on Kyle, RECKONER, and Col. Cathart. Also, what is, in your opinion, the single scummiest post in this game?
I think Reckoner is town - he has a sort of nonchalant, naive air about the way he posts. I've seen him do it as town. The one thing that irked me was him jumping on Socrates. But I agree with Moai's point earlier that putting yourself forward for mayor early doesn't seem like a smart scum play. It feels wifomy, but taking a less apathetic view, it makes more sense as town.
I haven't noted Cathart much, but flicking through his posts, I can't find anything that stands out at all. He's perhaps a bit too quiet.
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I know I'm facing an uphill battle to receive any credibility whatsoever in my play, but I REALLY don't like how hard SC is pounding me. I know I've dug myself a hole, but it feels like he's down here with me digging. The main issue is how much he overexaggerated about my joking around, and then building me up so my next post becomes heavily scrutinised. I feel like whatever I posted could have been contorted to be scummy based purely on my then credibility.
Admittedly my first attempt was bad, and I think I have no right to have my vote on charter. I was just frustrated and don't like his tunneling.
Unvote
Vote: SerialClergyman-
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Hoopla
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Yes. I'd imagine you'd be a bit more forgiving considering you're working with no confirmed alignments - but it isn't even that. It's your tone too - when you were onto me in Commie mafia you did it nicely. You feel very bullish.SerialClergyman wrote:Ugh. Pushing too hard? Zzz.
I wasn't sure - the rules say no codes, a purple post isn't a code. But then meh, it's a bit bizarre, even for a hoopla post.
I post in colours in some of my other games when the mood is right.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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The argument I think is that if he is scum, he can just claim a guilty first thing tomorrow, and yay, we've mislynched back to back, and we're on Day 3 (with a not very informative Day 2).SerialClergyman wrote:Sorry mate, you are quite correct. My apologies.
Saint Kerrigan, why monkey over hoopla?
May I ask what the harm in allowing monkey one night to try to grab a result?-
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Hoopla
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A cop is a signifigantly weaker role when it's been outed - especially Day 1. The benefit in keeping him alive is if he is the cop, he will likely draw a nightkill (meaning we get a different lynch today).
Lynching him tomorrow is the worse choice out of everything suggested. If Monkey gets an innocent tonight, we get one confirmable result in exchange for a mislynch. I don't see this as a good scenario.-
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Hoopla
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A cop's power to confirm innocents and find scum is almost completely removed when he is outed. As he is either scum, lying, or will be night killed/blocked. The nightkill scenario is good - but is dependant on him being truthful. If this is the best result we can hope for if he is town, isn't it more worthwhile to take the gamble he's scum?
What percentage do you put Monkey as scum? More than me?-
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Hoopla
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He's likelier than random to be scum - I'm genuinely on the fence when it comes to lynching a claimed cop on Day 1. Everytime I make a definitive stance, I persuade myself out of it with other logic.SerialClergyman wrote:Do you think he's scum? Do you think in an ideal world he shoudl be lynched or are you essentially playing devil's advocate for self-preservation?
Self preservation comes into it a bit this time too. I know I am town, so if it came down to me vs. Monkey, then obviously it is the right call. If I was looking pro-town it's possible I would try and organise a lynch elsewhere, but I can't say without bias.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Yeah, but there's a decent chance you don't get to cash in your scum lynch until Day 3. Is it really worth waiting that long for a confirmed scum?nhammen wrote:I say, Yay! We have a 1 for 1! Then I look at who Monkey claimed a guilty on, and compare with Monkey. Player more likely to be scum bites the dust.-
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Hoopla
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I already outlined my reasons for voting SC. I had two posts about it.charter wrote:Why is Hoopla voting for Serial?
Hoopla has pulled a giant 360, from initially thinking Monkeyman is more likely to claim cop as cop than scum, to disagreeing with lynching him day one, then self preservation voting him, to now arguing about how his role is useless and we should lynch him anyway.
I don't think it's a 360 - to be honest I'm still unsure what the correct play is with this. I can see valid arguments both ways. I'm siding with lynching him now to prevent my own.-
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Hoopla
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Good point. There is no point voting someone who is not going to be lynched.charter wrote:No, I mean, what is the purpose behind voting for Serial? No one else seems to be suspicious of him, and your reasons are weak and you're not trying to convince anyone else he's scum.
Serial, I'm pretty sure that Monkey will be just as scummy, regardless of who we lynch today and what they flip. I can't picture anyone flipping scum that would somehow clear Monkeyman. If he gets NK'ed, then that's about the only benefit other than him being sane and getting a guilty. I don't think it's worth chancing it, but if that's what we have to do, then that's what we have to do.
Unvote, vote: Monkeyman-
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Hoopla
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What difference does it make to you when you should not know either alignment?nhammen wrote:I am very happy with the choice for mayor. And I would have liked Hoopla to have commented on him before Monkey got so close to lynch. Too bad. Too late. I wanted to see if Hoopla was willing to choose Kyle as his life saving wagon rather than Monkey.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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No, there isn't. I am confirmed town to myself and do not know the alignment of anyone else in the game, so I should support anyone elses lynch over mine. This is essentially the same logic that Socrates got elected for.MonkeyMan576 wrote:
Is there any lynch you wouldn't support over your own? This is an incredibly scummy post. That being said, Kyle is in my top 3 scum prospects still. I would switch if that's what the majority decided.Hoopla wrote:
He isn't a bad lynch - I'd support it over my own.nhammen wrote:If you must know, I had thought of the possibility of a kyle Hoopla pair, and wanted to see if you had any reason not to switch.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Monkey, did you purposely choose to leave out Mafia 89 which is perhaps the one scum game most closely relating to your play here. You claimed a town watcher there.
Interestingly the two games you have actually played as cop, you were lynched on Day 1. Mini 795 you did not get to claim due to an impending deadline, but in Mini 838 I noticed you were a lot more reluctant to claiming your role, and only did so after a prolonged period of pressure. It seems in this game you used a claim as a means of deflating your wagon similar to the Mafia 89 fakeclaim.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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