Mini 914 ~ Mafia Reverberation (Game Over!)

[zoraster]

/confirm. I'm excited to play in this game. I respect a lot of players in it. Please don't hurt me.

[zoraster]

Incant: Sotty7

for taking the color I wanted.

Instead, I'll take dark blue

[zoraster]

Sorry, guys. I'll be in to read the game and start participating. Busy-ness and the site being horrible made it hard to keep up with my modded games much less played ones. It seems better now, so I should be able to contribute in a much better way. Expect a post by the end of the day or you have my permission (like you need it) to call me names.

[zoraster]

Okay. I've caught up. My sincere apologies for letting this game languish for this long. It's actually been quite an interesting read:

Game Theory Stuff:
1. Mass Lynch is wrong. It's asking to get schooled by even the least of Mafia coordination. In addition, if we hadn't 100% cleared a townie, we risk -- even without coordination -- the mafia winning.
2. Multiple lynches may well be something we should save until later in the game. The reason I say this is that scum will have a lot of power in a multiple lynch scenario. They'll be able to drive at least one of the lynches into the ground or, if we're wrong, simply ride along in both (or all three) lynches without detection. Or, if they want, they can bus someone to great effect.

Regarding me:
1. My appearance wasn't so coincidental as I was prodded shortly before my annoying "i'll catch up later" post.
2. I may have been posting elsewhere, but as I indicated this was mostly to mod (which has to take first priority). There was another game I was posting in, but as it's ongoing, all I can say is that you might want to look at that game to realize why.

Now for the "good" stuff:
1. SpyreX is town for now. He may claim he'd do this as scum, but I don't buy it. Also, odds are high in this setup for a single double voter to be town. If we've got another double voter out there, we may have to reevaluate.
2. Juls is either playing the confused townie or actually is one. I haven't decided yet.
3. Sotty7 is feeling town more than scum to me right now.
4. SerialC comes across as scummy to me, but right now it's a visceral reaction.
5. Porkens is feeling a bit off to me.
6. The Hydra (Mighty Orbots) is scummy. A few long posts, but little in the way of content. Yes, he's tried to get some lurkers active, but other than that the content of his posts is almost all "I'm a hydra" related and some generic questions that don't take a stand on anyone. Active enough to escape notice for lurking, inactive enough to escape notice for anything else. Mighty Orbots is the scum.

unincant. Incant: Mighty Orbots

[zoraster]

1. I guess it's also a coincidence that you're attacking the one who started your wagon.

Yes. It's coincidental. Or perhaps you think that you should be immune from my vote because you placed one on me. You can argue OMGUS, but you haven't even really done that here. You're just suggesting that I have an ulterior motive without really saying it.

3. I also also guess I'm not taking a stand on anyone by advocating for your wagon.

Hai guyz. Did you know zoraster was in this game?

True story.

incant: zoraster

This is the extent of your "stand" on me (no mention of me after or before). While I don't think pushing lurkers is bad at all, saying that you're somehow taking a stand on me or even "advocating my wagon" is nonsense.

[zoraster]

Multiple lynches do NOT make sense, for all your statement of it putting power in "town's hands." All it does is allow scum to either bus or direct the lynch in the wrong direction, either way. At least that's what it does at this point; I'm open to the idea in future days, but I don't really see the value of it today.

In fact, I feel pretty strongly that as opposed to lynching both me and someone else, lynch me. Obviously I'd prefer you lynch someone else (why, Spyre, do you believe MO is anything but scum?), but as opposed to reducing the informational value of the lynch, I prefer taking the lynch. Perhaps I'm missing some crucial piece of reasoning that justifies the multiple lynch in one day strategy, but it seems entirely negative to me -- it increases the number of lynches but does not do so in a way that is helpful to town on Day 1.

For those who thought 177 was scummy or whatever: justify yourself. Name what part of it is scummy. Or at least be able to say it's gut. Let's get information from your claims rather than just a half-assed attempt to get by without doing real analysis.

[zoraster]

...

I guess I'm retarded. I blame the lack of sleep. Some work days I swear.

I thought that it was lynch all THREE of them, which makes sense to me.

The vote and wanting them cross-voting? No that doesn't make as much sense.

3 lynches on D1 is even worse than 2.

[zoraster]

I'm sure you're aware of the differences between a vigil shot and lynches, right?

Vigil, at least from the vigil's standpoint, is 100% town and his kill has little chance of ultimately being driven by scum to town or being bussed at scum to further strengthen another scum player.

Lynches, on the other hand, can be. Which can be helpful under normal scenarios, but once you start to reduce the number required and spread out the number of players voting each player, you increase the power that each of these has.

[zoraster]

1.) You're claiming a vigilante kill is not influenced by the game as a whole via the whole "little chance of being driven by scum".

If you quote me, please quote me correctly. I said, "little chance of

ultimately

being driven by scum."

The ultimate decision to lynch is not necessarily in a townies hands. The ultimate decision to shoot someone as a vigil is. Yes, a vigil might be influenced by scum to shoot incorrectly. But that ultimate decision is not made by the scum.

2.) You're claiming that a vote, somehow, is inherently more manipulated. The same argument that applies to the vigilante being 100% town to themselves applies to my vote(s) being 100% town.

I think the point above addresses this pretty well, but suffice it to say there is a definite difference between being the sole arbiter of who gets shot and being one of 3 or 4 people who are deciding to lynch someone.

Put yourself in a hypothetical: it's lylo and you could either have the normal lynch situation OR you could have a dayvig as one of the townies. Which do you pick? If you decide anything other than dayvig, you're out of your mind.

--

Then there is the added variables of "what do I do when my scum-bro is up for lynch" aspect. With the knowledge that, like I said early, being on a scum-lynching wagon isn't going to be as many near town points the bussing is less useful... but consistently pushing other canidates STILL will make you look bad overall. So, there is more indecision and room for error when the simple fact is the majority can eat the manipulations versus allowing another day to pass is A++ awesome.

I'm afraid I didn't understand this point. Can you clarify?

And, if the final piece is that multiple lynches increases the overall value of a single vote well... good. Simple statistics again says that favors the town.

It increases the power of a single vote, but it decreases the interpretive power of each lynch.

---
Let me ask you this hypothetical (I know I'm going hypo heavy today, but whatever): Let's say we were playing a nightless game. Which would be more likely to lynch scum: each lynch sequentially or combining lynches? What are all of the reasons this is true?

I know that hypothetical is not analogous (a scum kill coming in between each is of utmost importance), but it does serve to examine some of the hidden principles underlying this idea of combined lynches.