Mini 915 - Murder in Murder Free Village (Over)

[Kmd4390]

I didn't notice this was open. I'll start with my random vote

Vote: DeejayCee

For being on the top of the list

Vote Flareonage

-The "didn't notice this was open" comment is off. He's the first post, so it seems out of place.
-Stressing that the vote is random. Why the need to point it out? I'm pretty sure we could figure out that it was random.

This is NOT a jokevote.

[Kmd4390]

I'll admit that both of those points are slightly odd, but why do you find them scummy KMD? Any particular reason?

The first, I pretty much explained already. The second ties into something that I've found very reliable lately. My "Page One Nervousness" Tell. First, the "didn't notice it was open" thing. That almost sounds like a "sorry for lurking" post, except that it's the very first post of the game. Why make that kind of comment when you're the first to post? Sounds like scum overexplaining. Next, the second sentence tells us "I'm about to jokevote". It's the first post of the game. What else would he be doing? More overexplaining. Sometimes newer scum get paranoid and make mistakes like this. It's what I've looked for in my past few games and it's been pretty damn accurate. I'll post links when the games end if you'd like.

I like KMD's reasoning.

Vote: Flareonage

Hmm. I find this interesting because it looks like you are jumping on the first thing to come up. Maybe trying to spring up an early wagon to start discussion. Maybe trying to go under the radar with an easy vote. It may depend on Flare's flip. If he's scum, I don't think I see you as a buddy, so that would make you likely town. If he's town, it could still go either way. Guess I'm gonna call this a slight town tell, and bump it to null if Flare flips town.

I don't like KMD's reasons.

Elaborate please.

It could always use some more votes...

I don't like KMD's reasons.

It's the best we got.

<I'm not reposting that image, so pretend it's here-Kmd>

This looks like an "I'm getting looked at, but it's early so won't be taken too seriously, maybe I can just shrug it off" defense.

I really don't see the point of attacking someone based on a random vote.

Oh, there's definitely a point. I've found it to be pretty effective lately.

[Kmd4390]

Lol

unvote, vote Kmd

Your nervousness tell and overexplaining tell are really stretching. In fact, all your reasons are really stretching. It seems like those are just nervous tells, I don't see why that makes him scum. Some people thrive being scum (though I don't know if Flare does, and I doubt you do either).

It's worked recently. I spotted scum on very similar tells VERY early in the game. As in RVS. Of course I was dumb and didn't follow through with it once the game progressed a little, but my Page 1 cases were on scum in both of the games I used them (2 of the last 3 games I joined).

Not sure what you mean by "thrive being scum".

Heh, sorry guys i realized i got school on Thursday and i haven't started organizing anything.

Well considering i don't want to die in the first round for just being at the top of the players list, and i do agree with KMD when he pointed out some "unusual" um, points, regarding Flareonage's posts. I guess if i want to survive i should vote for him as well.

Unvote, Vote:Flareonage

Really? Page 2 and you feel you are in an "it's me or Flare" kind of situation?

Except that I've found them not to be scumtells, in fact the second one I've only encountered on newbtownies, which I was happy about because it gave me some easy pushing as scum.

Unvote. Vote: kmd

. It's the best we got.

I'll be posting the links as soon as I can.

--------------------

DS, remind me. How many scum was I right about in that game?

[Kmd4390]

While I don't think there is anything in the flare case, I don't think it was scummy to make it

Well considering i don't want to die in the first round for just being at the top of the players list, and i do agree with KMD when he pointed out some "unusual" um, points, regarding Flareonage's posts. I guess if i want to survive i should vote for him as well.

Unvote, Vote:Flareonage

If you want early nervousness though, heres your guy.

Unvote,Vote:DeeJayCee

Radical is so obvtown that if he flips scum, I'll tear off my left nut, take a pic of it, and make it my avatar forever.

That's a very shrewd question. If I say I don't know, which is true, you will say that I have just as much reason to vote for him as for you. But the fact is, you claim to have reasons for your vote unknown to the other players. My Milked Eek did not claim any reason for his first vote when he made it. That being said, I'll

unvote

because it was a completely random vote.

Yep.

vote:DJC

for three reasons.
1)His vote for Flareonage for self-preservation
2)His nervousness
3)I want to see him claim

Why not? If that's a problem for people, I can take it back off. But I think he's the right vote.

These posts are scummy. I'd be willing to switch to dana.

Obviously, I mean the right vote for now. And I think it's weird that you and I are having two different conversations at the same time.

This was in response to asking how you are so sure. The "for now" and willingness to take it back imply that you aren't too sure about Dee's alignment.

What two conversations are you having? Can scum daytalk?

-----------------

Dee, were you honestly worried about being lynched so early in the game to the point where a self-preservation vote was necessary?

-----------------

Dana and Dee are so scummy, but I doubt they are bussing/OMGUSing each other as scumbuddies like that.

----------------

Nico is more than likely town.

----------------

Charter, I will link them as soon as they end.

Depending on the player, you're right. Certain players won't be found that way. But the tells are there even if they don't apply to people like Glork/Yos/Adel, etc.

--------------

Post 60 my Dana makes me think there's no way he's town.

-------------

Darkstrike, if I remember correctly, I named like 3 out of the 4 scum right before it was abandoned.

Yes, you asked for evidence. It will come.

[Kmd4390]

Sigh. No. We're in another game together and we were talking to each other in both games at the same time.

So scum can't daytalk?

Is that because I unvoted and voted someone else, or for another reason?

Because you backed off of Dee so easily and put a vote with awful reasoning in it's place.

[Kmd4390]

This game just ended. Looking over it, I didn't catch him with the nervousness tell here, but Netopalis was scum who I placed a serious vote on in my first post (Post 15). Too bad I bought his fakeclaim.

My other example hasn't ended yet. At least from this, you can see a game where I was town and was serious about believing I caught scum from my very first post. I make a post a little later saying I have 4 very solid reads on players. Turns out 3 of the 4 were right.

[Kmd4390]

NS, I find it hard to believe you don't have an opinion on anyone yet.

[Kmd4390]

Can you share those opinions because I haven't seen any from you.

[Kmd4390]

I just find it contradicting that nobody is scummiest, but you say you have opinions. And not sharing your opinions is anti-town.

What question?

[Kmd4390]

There's nothing to defend. You haven't given any opinions so I pointed that out.

[Kmd4390]

It's good scumhunting if I'm right.

You are just echoing my question to NS by the way.

[Kmd4390]

I can make the same arguement against your point.

I agree about NS. The only thing is I don't see why you had to echo my question and make it look like an original point.

[Kmd4390]

NS, that makes no sense at all.

Who is scummy then? And why are they not the "scummiest"?

[Kmd4390]

Just looked like you were trying to take credit in a way. If it was me, I'd have said something like "NS, maybe you should answer this question you ignored" rather than simply restating the question.

[Kmd4390]

I've been prodded. It's almost 1AM and I have class in the morning. Not making any promises, but I'll try to make a post tomorrow.

[Kmd4390]

Ok, some people may be interested in seeing this. That was the game where I called out Cooldog very early on nervousness. Yup, he was scum.

Kmd4390 - town. but i miss the gay men kissing

Who are you?

kmd seems to be playing to his town meta from what I can tell.

You...know my town meta?

Kmd, why are you still voting Flareonage?

I think he's scum.

-----------------

Charter pushing NS the way he has fits with his town meta.

-----------------

I think Kyle is town because of the way he acknowledged that his vote was L-2 and said he had "no worries" about it. He genuinely thinks NS is scum.

-----------------

Sweet, a neighbor claim. Usually, when there are neighbors, one is scum.

I'm tempted to hammer, but will let everyone weigh in first.

[Kmd4390]

Did I bus the hell out of you in a game once?

Oh, and masons USUALLY are confirmed alignment. Neighbors aren't. If it says mason or neighbor and doesn't specify "you do/don't know each other's alignment", it's a good idea to ask the Mod.

[Kmd4390]

Ok. You aren't who I thought you were then. *Shrug*

[Kmd4390]

I've read a couple of your games before (specifically /in-vitational 4) and you pushed like hell on a player early over a "slip" that you found, and you were town.

Wait, I went after someone on a slip? Damn, I usually don't do that. *Shrug*

I'm tempted to hammer, but will let everyone weigh in first.

I'd rather not have you hammer him on the idea that "usually one neighbor is scum", but more on the grounds of his scumminess. I'm not sure about the context of this post/quote, but I'll think about it later and decide what it is after I've (re)read the thread.
[/quote]

Oh, no, I agree that he's scummy. And that would be why I lynch him. I'm saying that the claim is far from being a reason to stop this lynch because there's a pretty good chance he's a scum neighbor.

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote NS

[Kmd4390]

Ok, anyone who knows me probably knows this, but it's........

VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS TIME!!!!!!!!

Nobody Special

(7):

charter,

Nicodemus, danakillsu,

jbernier, kyle99, Haschel Cedricson, Kmd4390

danakillsu

(2):

Darkstrike_11,

Nobody Special

jbernier (1):

Lastsurvivor

Kmd4390 (1):

My Milked Eek

kyle99 (1):

vikingfan

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting (0):

Great. We have a Day 1 mislynch and 2 dead townies on it. That is perfect. I know myself to be town. I won't implicate first on the wagon as scum. We are left with all but guaranteed scum in jb/kyle/Haschel. I'm gonna say 2 of them are scum along with 1 of Lastsurvivor/MME/viking because I don't think all of the scum would vote together. So our best chance at lynching a scum today is to lynch someone in jb/kyle/Haschel.

jb:
-replaced flareonage, who I got nervous-scum vibes from.
-gave reads on everyone when he came in, but never really backed them.
-Reading his vote on NS, it looks like he took the easy vote
-Doesn't seem to do much that doesn't deal with NS

Kyle:
-Comes in with a lot of nuetral reads and calls Dana/NS scummy.
-Puts up a decent case on NS, but only FoS's.
-Votes NS next post with "No worries"
--------Sounds like he had a feeling the vote would implicate him.
-"No one should hammer without a claim"
--------Stating the obvious. Filler.
-Asks who the neighbor is.
--------Fishing.
---------------Corrects himself, possibly realizing it was scummy.
-Not sure why the post about whether an SK or vig killed Dana was necessary.

Haschel:
-Most of his early posts seem to be looking for reactions.
---------Usually town does this.
-Dana vote looks like natural town thought process
-Some good attacks on Dana
-The switch to NS is kind of weird.
---------Haschel, can you explain why you voted NS?

-----------------------

Vote Kyle

I'd be willing to lynch jb too.

[Kmd4390]

Meh, there's a couple of ways to read Kyle's vote. I looked at it a second time and I think I was wrong yesterday.

Viking, the role you describe is a bodyguard, not a hider.

[Kmd4390]

Kyle, terrible arguement. If you'd oay attention, you'll see that I was pushing Flareonage at that time, so saying I used that to push NS is just bad logic.

[Kmd4390]

Haschel, I wouldn't call that a "trap", but I do see your point.

[Kmd4390]

Charter, I can see him as scum, but I'm not very confident in that right now.

[Kmd4390]

Basically, I don't think Kyle was trying to make someone hammer and look scummy or anything like that. But I do find it suspicious that he was so comfortable near a lynch, but felt the need to state the obvious about not hammering without a claim.

[Kmd4390]

Viking, I assume you mean NS, not LS.

I agree though. In all of the games I have played/seen, I can only remember one time when on a Day 1 mislynch, you couldn't find a scum on the wagon. That lynch happened on Page 1. That's why that is usually the first place I look for a scum on Day 2 when there is a mislynch Day 1. Day 3 is even better because you can take the 2 lynches, regardless of flips, and put them together to find scum.

Kyle and Jb are good places to look based on the lynch. I outlined why earlier.

[Kmd4390]

Charter, what do you think of Kyle and Jb? I named both as likely scum to start the day, and now both have followed your LS vote.

[Kmd4390]

I'm not suspicious of anyone who voted for NS because of the fact that they voted him. He was scummy and a lynch was merited. I find those (kmd, viking (what a coincidence it's those two)) that are trying to use it as their sole scumhunting to be suspect. There was really good reason to lynch NS, so I'm actually a bit wary about those who didn't vote him knowing he wasn't going to flip scum. It's like they knew he was going to get himself lynched anyway, so they tried to distance their self from a town lynch. Typical scumplay.

What the hell dude? You know my meta. I use VC analysis all the time and a big part of that is the fact that there is almost ALWAYS at least one scum on a mislynch. The idea isn't "Hey, they were wrong", it's "Well, even if this player was scummy, why WOULDN'T scum jump on it?".

Now, they're using this nonsense of 'well soandso voted a townie, he must be scum' to justify a vote today.

No, that isn't the mentality of it at all.

[Kmd4390]

I used VC analysis to know who to take another look. I looked again at Kyle and he looked scummy, hence the vote.

[Kmd4390]

Can you answer my questions I asked in 259?

Yes.

What do you make of LS's lone vote on page one?

Let me find it. The one where he follows me on to Flare? I commented on the vote when he placed it. If Flare (now Jb) flips scum, it's a slight town tell because it's pretty much a wagon hop, which I don't think he'd do to his buddy. If Jb is town, it's pretty much null because it can easily be a wagon hop OR trying to spring up discussion with an early bandwagon. It's not a very strong tell either way unless Jb is scum, in which case it's a town tell for LS.

You don't find that suspicious?

No.

How do you plan on ever vote count analyzing him or MME since they don't vote enough to gain anything meaningful from.

That actually plays into the analysis. If I see that somebody doesn't vote, it's going to look scummy.

You said before you think LS is suspect, what exactly do you not like about him?

I did? I think the most I've said is that I could see it, but I'm not very confident in that. My gut kind of questions his play, but it just makes more sense as town than scum. I won't be stunned if I'm wrong, but I have a town read on LS.

Another question for the kyle voters, who is his scumbuddy?

Jb and MME (See VC Analysis).

Given how fast that wagon jumped in size, I think it's very fair to think at least ONE scum is on that list.

Actually, I doubt very seriously that we'll only find ONE scum in that list. I think there is a very good chance that TWO scum voted NS.

[Kmd4390]

Oh, I meant what do you make of the fact that he has only made a single vote the whole game. In his first post. That's not pro town at all.

Wait, that's his only vote? Damn, not good.

When does it start to be scummy?

Depends. In this case, I think if he doesn't vote at all today, I'd be willing to lynch him tomorrow. Problem is, I see two players as scummier and don't see LS as a buddy to those players.

----------------

Haschel, "anti-town, not scummy" doesn't really express suspicion, so "thought NS was town" is actually an accurate statement.

---------------

Being at L-1 though, LS should probably claim in his next post.

[Kmd4390]

VCA Part 2

Let me show you Part 1 again.

Ok, anyone who knows me probably knows this, but it's........

VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS TIME!!!!!!!!

Nobody Special

(7):

charter,

Nicodemus, danakillsu,

jbernier, kyle99, Haschel Cedricson, Kmd4390

danakillsu

(2):

Darkstrike_11,

Nobody Special

jbernier (1):

Lastsurvivor

Kmd4390 (1):

My Milked Eek

kyle99 (1):

vikingfan

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting (0):

Great. We have a Day 1 mislynch and 2 dead townies on it. That is perfect. I know myself to be town. I won't implicate first on the wagon as scum. We are left with all but guaranteed scum in jb/kyle/Haschel. I'm gonna say 2 of them are scum along with 1 of Lastsurvivor/MME/viking because I don't think all of the scum would vote together. So our best chance at lynching a scum today is to lynch someone in jb/kyle/Haschel.

jb:
-replaced flareonage, who I got nervous-scum vibes from.
-gave reads on everyone when he came in, but never really backed them.
-Reading his vote on NS, it looks like he took the easy vote
-Doesn't seem to do much that doesn't deal with NS

Kyle:
-Comes in with a lot of nuetral reads and calls Dana/NS scummy.
-Puts up a decent case on NS, but only FoS's.
-Votes NS next post with "No worries"
--------Sounds like he had a feeling the vote would implicate him.
-"No one should hammer without a claim"
--------Stating the obvious. Filler.
-Asks who the neighbor is.
--------Fishing.
---------------Corrects himself, possibly realizing it was scummy.
-Not sure why the post about whether an SK or vig killed Dana was necessary.

Haschel:
-Most of his early posts seem to be looking for reactions.
---------Usually town does this.
-Dana vote looks like natural town thought process
-Some good attacks on Dana
-The switch to NS is kind of weird.
---------Haschel, can you explain why you voted NS?

-----------------------

Vote Kyle

I'd be willing to lynch jb too.

Fixing colors to reflect new flips:

Nobody Special

(7):

charter,

Nicodemus, danakillsu,

jbernier, kyle99, Haschel Cedricson, Kmd4390

danakillsu

(2):

Darkstrike_11

,

Nobody Special

jbernier (1):

Lastsurvivor

Kmd4390 (1):

My Milked Eek

kyle99 (1):

vikingfan

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting (0):

Lastsurvivor (5):

charter, kyle99, jbernier93,

horrordude0215

, Haschel Cedricson

kyle99 (2):

Kmd4390, vikingfan

No Lynch (0):

Not voting (2):

Lastsurvivor

, My Milked Eek

The mislynch is the same names as the first except for my own. This is NOT coincidence. We WILL find 2 scum on these mislynches.

Actually, Kyle's claim makes him non-mafia barring a counter (unless he somehow knows that the hider was the reason for dana's death in which case it's the perfect fakeclaim).

Charter is obvtown.

Jb and Haschel are scum. I'd be willing to bet on this.

Viking was voting Kyle in both counts. MME was voting me then nobody. I think MME is scum.

So to recap, Jb/Haschel/MME are scum.

Won't vote yet. LYLO, massclaim, blah blah, but yeah. Expect me to vote Jb though.

[Kmd4390]

K.

I'm the cop. Innocent on Charter Night 1 and Viking Night 2.

Investigated Charter because I have trouble reading him most of the time. Viking, because I didn't know if he was town who liked my method of VC analysis or if he was buddying/piggybacking.

You might notice that my VC analysis posts kind of write off my innocent results as town.

[Kmd4390]

Yeah, Haschel can go next

[Kmd4390]

I believe Kyle's claim. I can't see myself voting anyone other than Jb, so

Vote jbernier93

[Kmd4390]

Well that went pretty well.

-----------------

I pretty much figured after the doc/hider flips that there was no cop, so I figured I'd grab my favorite fakeclaim. People will usually be pretty reluctant to lynch a claimed cop without solid evidence against them even if it doesn't seem plausible.

------------------

Charter did a great job of "suspecting" me but managing to find "another suspect" every time.

-----------------

Hero, great job on this game. Scumbuddies, great game. Town, better luck next time.

[Kmd4390]

Oh, and Horror, there were a lot of lynch targets, so going after someone who wasn't likely to be doc-protected wouldn't hurt. Funny that we hit the doc. Also, I didn't want to kill Viking because he seemed to like my logic too much.

[Kmd4390]

I had the right logic but the wrong people.

Me too, but that was intentional.