926 A Game of Thrones Mafia - Over.

[Locke Lamora]

Hi everyone, sorry for the lack of posting, I started a new job on Wednesday and haven't had any time at all to post. Proper post to come tomorrow.

[Locke Lamora]

In a game with this, PRs aren't going to be obvious anyway. If a nameclaim does reveal obvious targets for scum, then they still have to deal with the WIFOM of whether to target them or not. Furthermore, it'll lock scum into characters for the duration of the game, which limits their room for manoeuvre if forced to fullclaim later on. I also think some people are still assuming that Kinetic is saying a mass nameclaim is instantly going to out the scum. I doubt that'll happen, I think it's pretty clear that it's going to provide more information about the setup, not catch the scum straight away.

Mina: are you not more bothered by Raivann's sudden flip? You seemed to accept it as quickly as he made the flip.

[Locke Lamora]

This is going nowhere fast. If some people are going to flat-out refuse to nameclaim or just keep stalling by talking about the relative pros and cons, it's not going to offer any benefit anyway. Can we either do it or move on? I'm for it. With that said:

Vote: Seacore

For doing a lot of talking but talking about nothing else but the nameclaim. Even his vote was made because Kinetic proposed one.

[Locke Lamora]

Yep, as pointed out, I am for the name claim.

[Locke Lamora]

I am, sadly, Sansa Stark. Sorry for the delay. I guess that leaves The Inquisition to claim.

[Locke Lamora]

Any particular reason you're finding me more horrifying than Heliograph, Buttonmen?

[Locke Lamora]

So you think I've contributed less than Helio, or just that I've posted less?

[Locke Lamora]

Helio's no lynch vote is like something straight out of D1 in a newbie game. Whether that's intentional or not is another thing, but I agree that a Buttonmen lynch gets us more info. I'm also a little confused about Buttonmen trying to direct attention at me rather than Helio. I know I've not been top poster but I don't see his motivation for criticising me more than Helio.

xvart: so you'd still go for a Buttonmen lynch despite Seacore switching his vote from Helio to him?

Buttonmen: I believe Mina is referring to post 32, when she voted you.

[Locke Lamora]

I think I can say you are ignoring me, though. What about Helio's posts mean that he's contributing more than I am to the game? You now turn and vote Helio when he only has one vote on him, so it's an odd vote if you're attempting to boost a competing wagon.

[Locke Lamora]

So my lower PPD means I'm more likely to be scum?

[Locke Lamora]

I'm not upset. I'm asking you what your point was. Seacore pointed out that Helio hadn't contributed anything, you went 'look, Locke's even worse'. I'm wondering whether you have any reason for people to avoid looking at Helio. You hadn't really said anything against him until your vote post, and that's only because we're near deadline.

[Locke Lamora]

I don't think you get my point here. I'm not OMGUSing you. I hadn't posted much, I'm not denying that. I was busy at work for a lot of that time, but you can call it lurking. What I'm doing is trying to work out your motivation for directing attention away from him by picking out another lurker. Why is it a nice touch tying you to Helio? Do you think he's scum?

[Locke Lamora]

I don't care about a vote on me (not that you even voted me when you made the post) and I don't care that you called me a lurker. For some reason, you seem to think that this is about defending myself. When Seacore made that comment on Helio, something made you go and read me in iso and then point out that I'd posted less than Helio. I'm trying to work out why you did. Did you read Helio? Did you think Seacore was wrong to call him out on his lack of contributions?

[Locke Lamora]

I like to work out why players do certain things. It helps to work out if they're scum. Fine, you called me out on lurking. That doesn't explain why you didn't have a problem with Helio. You're right though, I'm not going to get anywhere like this as you still seem to be missing the point.

I can see what Kinetic means about Helio. I've been had by scum like this in a newbie game before because I was too eager to put scummy play down to newbieness.

[Locke Lamora]

After my debate with Buttonmen I feel that I'm biased on this issue. I'm pretty frustrated with his failure to address what I was driving at and right now I just want to lynch him because it seems like he's being deliberately stubborn and calling OMGUS instead of answering what I think is a pretty straightforward query.

Helio I got a newbie town read from, compounded by his no lynch vote, but I've made that mistake more than once in the past and let scum slide through to endgame. His play has been awful and any read I can get is always going to be compromised by that newbie feeling.

Seacore's change of direction on Helio seems a little strange. I agree that the no lynch vote looks like VI play, but I always thought Helio was playing like a newbie. Pushing a case on someone who's playing badly and then changing your mind because they're playing too badly doesn't make much sense to me. It's a too-anti-townie fallacy. I don't really think it makes him more likely to be town or scum, though.

I'm going to go ahead and:

Unvote; Vote: Heliograph

I think having the non-voting players make a choice is useful. Obviously, I'm willing to switch to Buttonmen if required.
I

[Locke Lamora]

Unofficial vote count!

Bogre (1) - [The Inquisition]
TheButtonMen (2 or 3?) [Mina, MacavityLock]
Heliograph (5) [Kinetic. TheButtonmen, Locke Lamora, Seacore, Raivann]
No Lynch (1)[Heilograph]
Not voting:(3) [Bogre, Miserable At Best, xvart]

[Locke Lamora]

Sorry everyone, I had no internet at the weekend. Rereading and will have a post up later.

[Locke Lamora]

Sam being either bulletproof or an SK is pretty good evidence of characters not having the role you might think.

Kinetic: I'd like to hear more about your overall setup theory now. Do these flips tell you anything about the setup that we can use?

Seacore: where are you getting Mina from in your top two suspects? I know you found her attitude towards the name claim scummy but you really haven't said much at all about her since then. Why have you suddenly decided Mina's as suspicious as Buttonmen?

[Locke Lamora]

I think Seacore definitely has the better of the exchange with Inq. The point about characters revealing PRs is spot on. If I'm Sam Tarly, my thought would be 'people will never guess that I'm a PR', not 'I'm an obvious PR'. Inq also seems to be tying himself in knots a bit with why he did, then didn't, then did suspect Seacore.

However, one thing does bother me:

Also, I admit that the "abilities" attack is not the strongest thing in the book.

It's about as strong as your guilt/innocence scumslip attack on me though.

I've seen this from scum before - it's a case of I know my attack's rubbish, but so is yours. I pegged KMD as scum because of this in Star Control. It gives me the impression of point-scoring to make others look bad. I'm also suspicious of people who pad cases out with weak points that don't really add anything other than to make the list of points against a player seem bigger.

Seacore: why even make the abilities attack if you hadn't looked at your own PM to check Inq's claim against it?

[Locke Lamora]

Bogre: so you think all of those things Seacore has done are scummy, or just bad town play? As far as I can tell, most of those objections are against things that you think are unhelpful for the town. For example, you don't indicate that you think claiming VT is scummy, just that it reduces the scum's NK pool for PRs. I'm not sure whether you're driving at Seacore being a bad townie or scum deliberately trying to damage the town.

[Locke Lamora]

Inq, if we could return to this for the moment:

The thing about nameclaiming is that while I don't think it'll help us decide alignment, it may well out power roles. I find it far more likely that Faraday has given major characters power roles and more minor ones vanilla than I do that we can guess anything about alignment from a name claim. Obviously outing power roles is negative at this point.

I know you've explained how you went from this to your later stance, but what was your thought process during this original post? Your own role must surely have a heavy influence on this kind of setup-based speculation, so what was it about your role that made you concerned in the first place? If you weren't concerned, was this a deliberate ploy in any way?

[Locke Lamora]

Kinetic: as you haven't elaborated, I have to ask: are you deliberately being mysterious or can you tell us why you've unvoted?

I'm inclined to agree with Raivann on the above. It's nice of Bogre to give Seacore some advice on how to be a better townie but I think this might be filler in place of scumhunting. Scumhunting itself seems to have been absent since we started the nameclaim.

Vote: Bogre

[Locke Lamora]

Sorry, why is that odd? I asked Bogre whether he was actually making a case on Seacore or just pointing out bad townie play. He said he was pointing out bad townie play. As it was one of the most substantial things he's said for a long time and yet isn't really making any kind of case, I was inclined to think that it's just filler. Raivann pointed this out and I agree.

[Locke Lamora]

Buttonmen: you haven't explained why my earlier post was odd.

Mac: so you 'see' the Bogre dislike - does that mean you back his wagon, or do you simply understand the position of those on it without actually agreeing with them?

Feeling good about a Bogre lynch right now. Would be nice if he got on with posting some definitive suspects, though.

[Locke Lamora]

Anywho, sorry if none of that makes sense/some of it was solved already. Other than that,

Vote: Bogre

on the basis that a whole discussion had been taking place, and he barely had anything to add other than a defensive attitude and an overreaction to the situation.

Which bit of that strikes you as odd wording in particular?

[Locke Lamora]

I see what you mean there. I'm not really sure I get the (somewhat) extremely defensive. Either it's extremely defensive or not. It does sound a bit like he's trying to point out the flaws but at the same time is a bit reluctant about doing it.

[Locke Lamora]

Buttonmen: where is your 'more to come'? As far as I can tell you've only responded to things Mac has said since then, and you STILL haven't responded to my question.

[Locke Lamora]

My question is, what would be the point of stalling, were I scum? To get you off my back, wouldn't it be far safer for me to drop that single vote on Inq? Doesn't the fact that I'm being obstinate about this mean something?

"Not voting = scummy" is shallow analysis. Don't do shallow analysis.

Mina answered this in part, but isn't a benefit to doing anything that's not 'safe' as scum is so you can later say 'but why would I do that if I were scum?' Scum do not automatically do anything that would alleviate suspicion in the short term. Sometimes scum tunnel on people, they intervene to defend townies, they do all kinds of things that aren't necessarily the obvious optimal play for scum; then when somebody comes back later in the game and says 'I was getting a scummy read from him but I really don't think he would have done that as scum', it was the best play they could possibly have made.

[Locke Lamora]

I think you and Mina are going to keep butting heads on this because in Mina's book, reluctance to vote is a scumtell. I agree - scum are often hesitant about taking a decisive stance, particularly newbie scum. You don't fit into that category, though, so could you direct me to a couple of scum games of yours where you vote a lot?

[Locke Lamora]

I'm satisfied that Mac's voting patterns differ enough as scum that reluctance to vote is not a scumtell we can apply to his meta. I'm getting a fairly neutral read off him right now and Bogre's a much better lynch in my eyes.

I agree with Raivann on Kinetic too. He definitely hasn't been a paragon. Perhaps he just doesn't have the time, but his setup speculation hasn't been particularly useful and his scumhunting is rather scarce of late.

[Locke Lamora]

I read the first two. In Jekyll Maf he seemed a lot faster and more decisive when laying his vote down and stating his opinions. In Little Golden Maf he was more hesitant, as he said - in fact, he seemed more hesitant in the early game than he did in this game, where he put three votes down quite early. Different circumstances, of course, but between those two games and this one I see enough of a contrast in his voting behaviour to make me believe that reluctance to vote is not a scumtell here.

[Locke Lamora]

Inq hasn't bothered to address anything he missed that was directed towards him, as far as I can tell. Hopefully he's working on that right now.

I'm not moving my vote from Percy unless we get some serious content, some solid stances and a general sense that we're better off not lynching his player slot, none of which I got from Bogre.

As for Mina vs Mac, I get the feeling that it's not going anywhere fast. I agree that Mac's refusal to vote is now a distraction and I also agree that his stubbornness not a tell either way. I personally think his reluctance to vote is causing a problem for Mina more than for the rest of us. If he continues throughout the game to refuse to put his vote down then I'm sure it'll become a problem and I'm sure it'll get him lynched. For now, I think it's just turning into a nasty argument that isn't helping us find scum.

[Locke Lamora]

Percy: actually, I think I made it quite clear that I voted Bogre because when he did bother to post in the game, he wasn't making any effort towards scumhunting. Where did you get the impression I was voting him for lurking?

Inq: I am still waiting for you to respond to my question about your original motivation for saying what you did about the nameclaim.

Mina: Mac's posts seem a lot lengthier and a lot more frustrated since you got him on the defensive. I don't see anything in that change that's indicative of him being scum. I've only played with Mac once, very briefly and I wasn't very active at all in that game (British Comedy Mafia, I was replaced D1), but from what I remember I don't notice any significant different playstyle change.

[Locke Lamora]

Sorry guys, lot to catch up on, will be posting my thoughts by this evening at the latest.

[Locke Lamora]

Mac's claim makes a lot of sense to me when compared to his posts, particularly in his reaction to the nameclaim. I think suggestions are the best way to go for the NK; keeping scum guessing is much more useful here.

I'm not sure that Inq-SK is very likely but that's just based on the idea that three kills a night is a bit too much. I think he's more likely to be town than bulletproof scum but I'm still not happy with the lack of responses he's given to almost everything he's been asked lately.

Raivann's posts ever since Percy got into the game have been terrible. He hasn't responded properly to anything and his last two votes were incredibly poorly justified. Since Bogre disappeared as an easy target it's as though he hasn't got anything else to say on the subject of who to lynch or even alternative suspects.

Raivann: what do you make of Mac's claim? Who is your preferred lynch now?

[Locke Lamora]

I think it's unlikely that we have a cop, watcher/tracker, bulletproof, vig and double voter all on town's side, even if some of them are limited. If we do then scum likely have at least a couple of PRs of their own to interfere with those. I think this situation provides greater potential for testing claims than we would otherwise have had and I'm inclined towards letting Mac, Buttonmen, Confucius and Inq live for today so that we can see how things play out tonight. Chances are we'll get some useful information and at least a better indication of who might be lying.

I was ready to vote for Raivann but his recent thought about Buttonmen claiming a limited PR reads more like town trying to figure out the claims to me.

Mina: the only reason my vote is still on Percy is because I'm trying to figure out where else to put it and I forgot to just unvote. Yes, I did find myself agreeing with him and I think he's approached the game in a fairly pro-town manner, a lot of his reads and conclusions make sense to me. I'd like to hear what he thinks of the latest development from Con and Raivann's most recent contributions. Why do you think Mac, Button and Con can't all be town?

Before I forget again:

Unvote

Need to think about this some more.

[Locke Lamora]

Raivann: if Mac had claimed that he definitely does have a limited amount of kills, or that he has a restriction in some other way, like who or when he can kill, would you read him as more likely town?

[Locke Lamora]

Mina: you can check my wiki for a bunch of my games and decide for yourself. Honestly, I'm having trouble getting good reads off this game and the wave of PR claims that has hit us has added a whole new dimension to deciding who to vote.

Raivann:

And we got 3 other limited PR's. I think there is no vig and Mac is scum.
Out of the four claimed PR's, his claim doesn't fit.

Are you saying that was just irrelevant? You imply that Mac's non-limited vig powers don't fit with the other claims. The fact that you wouldn't have cared if he was limited makes me think you're just gunning to lynch him whatever.

[Locke Lamora]

I've found out I'm going to be pretty busy the next few days and I'm not sure how much I'll be able to post before deadline. I was getting pro-town vibes from Raivann's consideration of the PR limitations but the fact that he stated that Mac's lack of limits was a factor and now admits it makes no difference to him just makes me think he's set on lynching Mac whatever.

Vote: Raivann

Mod: possible V/LA until Monday.

[Locke Lamora]

I'm here. Reading up.

[Locke Lamora]

I agree with Confucius about Raivann's wagon (although it implicates myself). I think it's very likely that at least one of Kinetic and Seacore is scum if Button is. Leaning towards Kinetic at this stage as I think he's been less pro-town than Seacore, with the set-up speculation taking up a lot of his posts and not much actual suspicion outside of that coming through. I also think Seacore's taken more stances and looked a lot more eager to lynch Button throughout this game. I also don't think that Confucius, Mac and Button are all town and I'm reading Button as the scummiest of the three.

[Locke Lamora]

I'm happy to vote Button. I don't think there are any reasons not to, at this stage. He seems like the most likely common denominator of a scumteam and his approach to today appears to be designed to stall as much as possible. I'll wait for Mac and Mina to voice their thoughts but I think it's pretty clear that Con, Seacore, Kinetic and myself are inclined towards a Button lynch and a non-Button team is looking increasingly unlikely right now.

[Locke Lamora]

Enough stalling.

Vote: Buttonmen

Everyone's clearly ready to do it anyway.