Mini 219: Tom Cruise Mafia -- It's a Wrap!

[Astronaut]

vote: Dragon Phoenix

, just to prove that I don't hate Kiwis

[Astronaut]

unvote: Dragon Phoenix

Now it's not really a bandwagon, is it?

[Astronaut]

unvote: Dragon Phoenix

Now it's not really a bandwagon, is it?

And what's wrong with a bandwagon?

Nothing wrong with bandwagons. But DP just voted Johnny for being on his bandwagon, wouldn't want the same thing to happen to me

[Astronaut]

And what's wrong with a bandwagon?

Nothing wrong with bandwagons. But DP just voted Johnny for being on his bandwagon, wouldn't want the same thing to happen to me

DP voted Johnny for puting the third vote on his bandwagon (a commonly cited scum tell) without any sort of reason. Your vote was a random first vote - there's a slight gulf in scumminess there. So if there's nothing wrong with bandwagons, why unvote? Possibly because you don't want it to be DP who's being bandwagonned? Or just an extreme case of the jitters?

My unvote was partyl a joke and nothing more than a way to reduce the number of random votes in play. If I'd had any special interest in keeping DP alive, it'd be suicidal to make such a big point out of unvoting him.

[Astronaut]

To answer your question - Minis normally run at about 3 mafia members. Sometimes there is a Serial Killer in addition to the 3-person mafia. And, sometimes it goes 2 opposing mafia groups with 2 members each.

Two killings night 1 very much suggests that we've got several scum groups. I don't really think you were trying to hide this fact, but I'll throw in a

vote: inHimshallibe

. Didn't like your post #25:

Well, my vote's as good as any other, so I'll stick to it.

[Astronaut]

I unvoted DP because my initial vote was totally random, and added a silly comment about there now no longer being a bandwagon against him. This because DP had just voted Johnny for being third on his bandwagon.

Two killings night 1 very much suggests that we've got several scum groups.

Several as in two and scum group as in a mafia or a lone SK.

[Astronaut]

unvoted DP because my initial vote was totally random, and added a silly comment about there now no longer being a bandwagon against him.

You can see how that would appear scummy though, right?

If making bad jokes is scummy, I'm probably scummier than most people around here. I don't agree that retracting random votes is scummy.

As for Astro, I can't seem to figure the reason for the cryptic vote of inhim. What is it about post #25? Can you elaborate a bit more?

I didn't like the way he justified his random vote. You'd think a townie will put a bit more thought into who we lynch, while inHim in post #25 says he's happy lynching pretty much anyone. I've got nothing more on him.

[Astronaut]

Several as in two and scum group as in a mafia or a lone SK.

By the definition of a group, it's got to be two or more people interacting.
Please tell me it was the language barrier.

This coverage was
through a

one-person group

because the Petitioner was the only person eligible for health
insurance.

Boy, did I have to dig deep to find that quote. But yes, I see now that a group should be more than one person.

How does my post [25] implicate that I'm "happy lynching pretty much anyone"? I don't understand.

First you random voted Johnny (well, I'm assuming it was random), in [25] you say that your (random) vote is as good as any other. In my opinion, there are votes that are better than the random ones. Not much to base a suspicion upon, I agree, but it's something. I think my current vote is better than my previous random one.

[Astronaut]

Astronaut - I think you blew my comment in [25] out of proportion.

I know I did, but it's day 1 and it was the best I had to go with.

Although I've never experienced the traumas Talitha's been through, I am willing to cut newbies a bit of slack day 1. However, if any of them start digging the hole beneath themselves any bigger (i.e. keep up the scummy posting), I will consider switching my vote to one of them.

Oh, and I forgot to mention that not posting pretty much equals posting scummy things. I know my own participation lately has been worthy of critique, things will improve.

[Astronaut]

I didn't see Seol's post #93 before I made #94, but that one really deserves some attention.

First, he throws accusations all over the place, next he defends inHim and then the Talitha/Johnny plot. Finally he votes one of the newbies and IGMEOY's the other. This behaviour is the opposite of what I've seen from Seol in my previous games with him.
If there's a post in this thread that has triggered my sensors, it's this one.

unvote: in Him, vote: Seol

[Astronaut]

What exactly seemed at odds with my usual behaviour?

Well, my main problem is that for once, I disagree with you. Usually in the games I've participated in/read through where you've been pro-town, I've been impressed by your scum-finding abilities. You might be right this time as well, but I'm not getting the "Oh my god Seol's just made a great point wow he must be a genius"-feel I've had elsewhere.

What I didn't like with your post with is that I think you're a bit hard on the newbies, and also the coach Tally seems a bit far-fetched.

All of this wouldn't normally add up to more than a FOS, but since it's day 1 I threw in a vote.

[Astronaut]

I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm saying you might not necessarily be right.

This goes for pretty much everything I say. Of course I might be wrong.

[Astronaut]

Since Jonny's claimed "citizen" already, do we want a name for posterity's sake? Or should I just vote him?

It's much more fun to lynch someone when you know their name, isn't it?

[Astronaut]

Hmmm... is it just me or does that post of Astro's( "It's much more fun to lynch someone when you know their name, isn't it?") imply that he thinks that Johnny would claim his real name, and therefore he thinks that Johnny is town.

Well, if I thought Johnny were town, I wouldn't want him to claim in the first place. My post was only to say that I think it would be wise to get a claim from him before we decide to lynch him.

[Astronaut]

My comment about wanting to know Johnny's name before he's lynched was not in any way a slip-up. I thought I explained this before, but I'll gladly do it again: What I was saying was that I don't think anyone should be lynched without given the opportunity to claim. Johnny did just that, and although I'm not 100% convinced by it, I'm willing to keep him alive rather than risk losing a power role.

My Seol vote didn't exactly do much other than attract attention to myself, so in an attempt to save my own hide, it's back to my original bandwagon.

unvote: Seol, vote: inHimshallibe

.

[Astronaut]

It's much more fun to lynch someone when you know their name, isn't it?

I find it mildly amusing that I'm being voted over this.

inHim's all over the place, throwing accusations at me and DP and voting elsewhere. Not sure if that makes him scummy, but what I do know is that it makes me confused.

[Astronaut]

I still like my vote. Especially now that Astronaut is expressing doubt about the scumminess of the person that he's voting for.

You do know that the reasoning you're now using against me is the exact same as I was using when saying I wasn't so sure about my vote?

I have never understood why showing uncertainty about your vote day 1 is scummy. I am a whole lot more suspiscious to those who seem dead certain on who they wish to see lynched. That's the play of shameless bandwagoners and scum.

Unvote: inHimshallibe, vote: Talitha

[Astronaut]

I knew that's the way it'd be perceived, which is why I nearly made it a FOS rather than a vote. But it seems Tally and I are of different opinions here. She thinks I'm scummy because I'm not sure my vote was correct, I think she's scummy because she's so convinced that her is.

When I think of it, my vote isn't OMGUS at all. Because we all love Tally, don't we?

[Astronaut]

unvote: Talitha, vote: inHimshallibe

I'm also going back to my first instinct, the tone of his "unvoting post" seems way to buddy-buddy, even if he were Dutch.

[Astronaut]

unvote: inHimshallibe, vote: Johnny Combo Player

[Astronaut]

Vig claiming cop and faking role name? That's a new one... I somewhat understand the reason behind it, but he had to go down in flames eventually.

A re-read is required before I start throwing votes around, but with the last few posts, I think I know where to look.

FOS: Phoebus and Seol

[Astronaut]

Hmm...where's the post I wrote yesterday? Well, nevermind...

I was responding to Yosarian2 pointing at me for lurking, and I don't have a very good excuse. I guess one of the reasons why I haven't been active lately is that I'm a bit intimidated by the length of the posts from Phoebus and Seol. All the quoting and analyzing every single word that's been said... I truly admire their effort, but I won't even try to follow them.

That being said, I find it highly unlikely that we won't find scum among the more talkative here. As Yosarian pointed out, lurking could be a successful strategy for scum at this moment, but when people attack eachother this vigorously, I don't see how they can all be pro-town.

At the moment, I'm leaning towards believing Phoebus, which means Seol is probably still the one I'm more suspicious of. I haven't totally ruled out the option of inHim being scum either, which is why I'm tempted to have his mason partner come out, but I'm not entirely sure we'd benefit from it.

[Astronaut]

I'll be gone until Monday, and since more and more are commenting on my scumminess (and I'm afraid I might be getting it when Tally says she's ready to vote), I'll make a half-claim.

I'm immune to one lynching. Since this is something I don't think I've seen as scum ability, wasting your lynch on me would confirm my innocense. Is it worth it? I don't know, but since people are after me anyways I might as well tell you now rather than you finding it out yourselves.

[Astronaut]

His half-claim is annoying. A name to go along with it would have been useful.

Claiming role names helps scum when they're looking for false claims, hence the half-claim. But since you asked: I'm Lestat de Lioncourt from Interview with the Vampire.

Nowhere does he categorily state that he is not evil.

I am not evil. I am a strong townie, able to survive one lynching. I win with town.

If there is a singular killer in this game I'm guessing it's Yosarian or Astronaut. Mainly because I can see things shaping up to lynch one of those 2 today, and I assume that the mafia would be trying to lynch the SK.

If you really believe that, you should be lynching someone else today. If you look at the accusations being thrown around, I'm being attacked by several people, while Phoebus seems to be the only one suspicious of Yosarian.

Because however subtly, Yos has shielded Seol, who still rubs me slightly wrong.

I don't think he's been at all subtle about it. Yos has been supporting Seol more openly than I'd dared if I were scum, but it makes me suspicious of the both of them.

In fact, it looks to me like you're trying to give the impression that you're the SK. However, I think you're lying, and you don't have that ability at all. It's just

too

convenient.

Of course having two lives is convenient, MeMe must really like me, don't you think? My claim would probably be a good one for scum, but that's just my luck. Since this is my role, it's the one I had to claim. And no, I'm not your SK.


People are arguing that my ability is more likely to be seen in scum roles. I hear MeMe's got a reputation for creating interesting roles, but giving scum several lives give them a game-breaking advantage unless town's got some incredible powers.

[Astronaut]

I think Phoebus is the SK, which means that I don't want to vote for him today.

This was poorly phrased. What I was trying to say was that

if Phoebus is scum

, I think he's the SK.

I second that. Nobody's really sided with him so far, so if he's got partners, he/she is among the less talkative here. I won't exclude the idea that he's our SK, but the mafia is the ones we want to look for at the moment, right?

[Astronaut]

I think I've seen enough, let's see if my gut feeling day 2 was right.

vote: Seol

[Astronaut]

Forgot to mention, I'll have no access until Sunday morning.

[Astronaut]

Tally was so obviously scum... Good job, SK!

And before someone tells me that that was the biggest SK tell they've ever seen, I can assure you, I'm not your SK.

[Astronaut]

I think there's a better way than no lynch. From my point of view, this one is solved, with mason Fuldu as my only pro-town companion. Yos teamed up with Seol all yeasterday, which means Phoebus is our SK.

I'm currently analyzing votes in an attempt to convince you of my innocense, Fuldu. Don't go with the NL until you've heard me out.

[Astronaut]

Asto, answer the question.

Were you telling the truth about being able to survive a lynch, or not?

Yes, I was, but lynching me to confirm this is not the optimal strategy for town. I've got another trick up my sleeve, and if Fuldu believes me, we should lynch one of you scum tonight.


Votes from remaining players/dead scum:
Astronaut voted: DP(16), inHim(45,144,174), Johnny(198), Seol(96,304),Talitha(154)
Fuldu voted: Johnny(91,199), Seol(293), Talitha(140)
Phoebus voted: Astronaut(46,137), Fuldu(8), Seol(215,306), Yosarian2(70,187,211,278)
Seol voted: Astronaut(48,157), CoolBot(13), Johnny(92,197), Phoebus(217)
Talitha voted: Astronaut(4,134), inHim(58,162), Johnny(22,204), Seol(302), Yosarian2(179)
Yosarian2 voted: DP(23), Fuldu(111), inHim(177)

Things I feel are worth noting are these:
Astro voted for both Seol and Talitha.
Phoebus voted for Astro, Seol and Yos.
Seol voted for Astro and Phoebus, never for Talitha or Yos.
Talitha voted for Astro, Seol and Yos.


I'll let you in on my plan if you believe me, Fuldu, but first I'd like to hear who you think is most likely mafia and who's SK.

[Astronaut]

Well, if I can't convince you I'm town, I guess there's no chance of me convincing you that we should lynch the SK. Because if we do, town wins.

[Astronaut]

Hmmm...who ran away with my last post? I'm terribly sorry that you haven't heard from me for some time, on Thursday I made a rather lengthy argument explaining my previous comments, and I explained that I'd be gone until today (just like I did in all the rest of my games). For whatever reason, my post isn't where I thought I left it (which is here in this thread), god knows what happened to it. (There is of course the possibility that I messed up somehow and it was never posted, though I can't understand why I'd do such a silly thing after putting time and effort into writing the thing.) I'll try to recite as much as I can remember from what I meant to say:

Fuldu with his undisputed mason claim is about as confirmed as he can get now that we know for sure that inHim was mason. I still think we started out with 3 mafia and 1 SK (given the amount of pro-town power roles). That means we've got 1 member of each scum group left (none of whom are me, thanks for asking).

First of all: I wasn't lying about the lynch immunity. I am able to survive one lynching. If we meant to do a no lynch, we could as well be lynching me, the only thing this would do is to confirm me. This would, however, be of little interest to others than the two scum. Tomorrow morning we'll wake up to a massacre and more likely than not, it will be game over. What good would it then do you, Fuldu, to have me confirmed as town? Lynching me equals a no lynch, which leaves the scum to play a little 4-way prisoner's dilemma. If that's what we want, we might as well lynch Fuldu, since from my calculations, town has got a just as good, if not better chance of winning a 3-way than a 4-way PD.

What's interesting for me at the moment is who's the last mafia and who's the SK. Why is that important, you ask? Read on. This is your initial response to me suggesting to lynch the SK:

Well, I don't believe you, but letting me in on your plan may or may not change that. Right now I'm inclined to believe that Phoebus is the SK and you're the remaining goon, but a no lynch would provide me with better information.

First of all: As mentioned, you'd never get the chance to use the information you get from a no lynch/attempting to lynch me. Second, I need to show you that I'm not scum, since I need you to trust me if this is to work. Phoebus as SK is consistent with what I've been thinking for a long time. If he should turn out to be the last mafia, Seol and him did a marvelous effort yesterday. If we leave him out, the question is who's the final mafia, Yosarian2 or me. I suggest that you, Fuldu, read through the thread once again, taking notice of what the two of us have said about the two dead mafia, godfather Seol in particular. I think there's something in the speculations about WindSlicer backing out when he saw that he could be losing the game for his team are, but what really stands out is the relation between Seol and Yos yesterday. Seol was getting a lot of heat, and Yos protected him through it all. First discreetely, then more and more openly. The two of them even managed to put an FOS on eachother to show us that they couldn't be partners. Talitha was smart enough to actually put a vote on Seol, but SK Phoebus saw through her. If we for a second consider that I could be the last mafia, that would mean that 2 out of 4 votes on godfather Seol yesterday came from his minions. That would make us the stupidest mafia ever.

Fuldu, if you just go back to day 2, you'll find plenty of evidence indicating that Yos and Seol were more than just good friends. I hope you'll take the time to read that part once again.

Now for my plan: I am a 50% roleblocker. The thing is, I was told my block is only effective against Tom Cruise. That didn't make much sense until Phoebus claimed, but now I know that my block is no good against the SK. I made no block attempt N1, N2 I targetted Seol but either my block didn't go through or he wasn't the one doing the actual killing. Instead of doing a no lynch now, we should lynch Phoebus and I'll block Yos.

With this plan, we've got a 50% chance of winning, as do you, Yos. Significantly better than what either of us can hope for if we go into night with the SK still alive. And before you start saying that this is an awfully convenient thing to claim for a mafia, check out what's been said and done by WS/Yos, and who they've voted for. It's bleeding obvious that Yos is Seol's last remaining partner.

vote: Phoebus

[Astronaut]

I think you've missed the point of the no lynch, Astronaut.

I think you've missed every single thing I've been trying to tell you.

In that event, Yosarian and Phoebus have to target one another, since doing so is their only hope of winning.

Please tell me why you're so sure the mafia and the SK will target eachother? If they target us both, they'll tie, if one of them targets one of us, the other will win.

That is quite possibly the stupidest role I've ever heard of

So it's more likely that mafia #2 and #3 put the 2nd and 3rd vote on their own godfather yesterday? That's quite possibly the stupidest theory I've ever heard of.

I asked you to re-read the Seol/Yosarian2 interaction, but you obviously can't be bothered. It's plain for everyone to see that WS/Yos is the last mafia, but you're so focused on your assurance that scum will target eachother that you spectacularly fail to understand this.

[Astronaut]

I hate SK's, and Phoebus has claimed untargettable at night. I'd rather hand this game to the mafia.

Vote: Phoebus

. There you go, Yos2.

[Astronaut]

I took the draw rather than to chance on Phoebus and Yosarian2 targetting eachother... I suspected that Phoebus could be right about Yos targetting him the night before and found him immune to nightkills (only single-shot, but Yos wouldn't know) and therefore the only way to get rid of Phoebus was to lynch him.

I know my play must have seemed pretty bizarre to Fuldu, but there was some sort of plan behind it all. My goal yesterday was to lynch Phoebus and get Yosarian2 to target me at night, which would be a town victory. Even if Yosarian2 targetted Fuldu, we'd get a draw.

My mistake was that I thought the Seol/Yos2 connection was obvious after day 2, so I started hinting at my plan before I had Fuldu convinced I was on his side. I knew I'd have to make an improbable claim in order to give Yosarian2 a reason to vote Phoebus as well, so I wanted to wait as long as I could with this. Fuldu forced me to claim at a time where he thought I was scum, no wonder he didn't buy my claim in that situation.

I pictured this as a town/scum draw, had I known that it was a me/scum draw, I'd have considered a no lynch yesterday and hoped for them to target eachother, but that would have been a gamble.

I can't say I'm really disappointed with the way things went considering we lost so many power roles the first two nights.

[Astronaut]

It's fascinating how things that seem so obvious when you know about them are hard to see for the uninformed. In this case, I couldn't grasp how Fuldu didn't see that Yos2 was mafia. I hope I didn't offend you, Fuldu, with my [335] I felt I had to be a bit aggressive to make you unvote. In hindsight, the post is probably closer to sarcasm than aggressiveness.

50% roleblocker with one-shot lynch immunity is admittedly a silly role. As mentioned, my plan was to show my innocence before claiming, since I had to claim something that would make Yos2 target me.