Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

[SerialClergyman]

I'm full totally serious confirmed.

[SerialClergyman]

Ugh..

Massive loss.

vote Albert

If he hasn't posted yet, he's scum.

[SerialClergyman]

I reckon lynch them anyway. Yet to be on sando's bandwagon for a lynch.. salivating over the prospect..

[SerialClergyman]

This is a MUCH more fun wagon than the Scien<->Vi touchy-fest.

Wagon ho!

Vote VP Baltar

[SerialClergyman]

Why did you feel I'm not interested in scumhunting, Vi?

Sando, don't make me argue to save you all day again.

[SerialClergyman]

Also:

I did get a weird vibe from the SC/ABR "wagon" on VP.

I'm pretty sure one of them has to be scum;

though I'm feeling SC more than ABR.

Wow. That's some balls on the line mafia.

[SerialClergyman]

No, I'm serious about Baltar. I like a jovial atmosphere early D1 because I find if I get bogged down in irritable or prickly discussion it only serves to amplify confirmation bias. But out of everyone, I think VP's the scummiest so far.

I think that's why I find Amished's comment so bizarre, saying on page 7 that you believe one out of two people on VP's wagon has to be scum strikes me as stronge.

(I don't know why I typed that word but it seems to be a mixture of 'strange' and 'strong' which actually echoes my feeling about it, so I'm going to leave it there. It was very stronge of you, Amished.)

[SerialClergyman]

Unforunately, it's going to weigh upon you then. I'm not inclined to argue something just for the sake of it - usually because my writing is so eloquent and my observations so intelligent I usually convince myself that it's true

Seriously though, I'm not sure where your meta is coming from but my activity on D1 varies greatly depending on if there's something that I think needs to be said. At the moment I don't have much to argue and so I don't argue much.

I don't have any solid reasons for voting VP, it's just gut.

Ojanen - no votes yet?

[SerialClergyman]

See, it's rubbish comments like that one from VP that I don't like. He's not bitching about a lack of content, he's making a specific accusation against you. His argument said you are hypocritical for attacking someone for only having a gut reason when you yourself have used mostly gut so far to come to your reads. This is scumhunting, or what passes for it early on D1.

You also invoked lynch all liars for what barely passed for a 'lie', you were surprised Albert was touchy when being accused of scum, alluded to meta reasons for suspecting Albert but produced none when asked, Didn't join the Albert wagon until there was someone else on it.

So yep, you're the scummiest person around at the moment, just on the usual D1 straws.

Vi, expand on your VP read - what do you think of these issues I raise?

[SerialClergyman]

EBWOP: Vi,

please

expand on your VP read.

No need to be discourteous.

[SerialClergyman]

I made no argument as to whether I agree with his assessment, only that saying he isn't scumhunting is utterly untrue. He is not arguing you are failing to provide content, he is arguing you are being hypocritical and attempting to show why. This is known as scumhunting.

Also, is there a point in this game when you're going to stop bitching about there not being content and actually scumhunt?

This quote is pure rubbish. The man is scumhunting.

As for the rest, invoking lynch all liars is importnat. You are saying that the man should be lynched because he is lying and we need to maintain a disclipline not to lie in thread. I think you did it way too early and way too flippantly. I didn't like it.

Attacking someone without voting them until someone else does shows a possibility that you are feeling out attacks or that you're not prepared to push a read unless there's support. I'm not accusing you of following anyone, I'm accusing you of not backing your reads and being prepared to go out on a limb.

I've read the thread, I read your comments about the meta issue, and they were an inadequate response in my eyes. I also disagree with your conclusion, which is possibly adding to my distaste.

Anyway, I'm doing my best to remember this is a 5% D1 case and so I'm not going to argue it unless you make any particularly ridiculous statement. These are my reasons for my vote.

I'd still like Vi's opinion.

[SerialClergyman]

VP - I was referring to this.

I went to check after I prompted him for more.

Actually it looked like you only went back after I told you that you were flat out wrong.

Unvote, Vote: Scien

Lynch all liars.

[SerialClergyman]

Also, as a side note, I'm realy getting the shits when people flip out because I'm defending people. I tend to be decent when working out who to defend. I've played with sando and accused him, wrongly, of being scum before. I'm not sticking up for my mate, I'm showing how your argument is bad.

[SerialClergyman]

Stupid friends and enemies. Who decided on this bad setup

Everyone, cut it out about the LAL stuff. I'm sure he as scum didn't think he was going to pull a fast one and deny it out of existence. As soon as he starts yelling in capitals that he didn't do something he obviously did it's a breakdown in communication, not a scumtell. Was going to rip into sando, but he had the good sense to reread and come to the same conclusion.

charlatan, however, did not. I also am NOT loving the 'arguments are contrived on both sides, I'm prepared to vote on either' from him either. Charlatan jumps striaght into the number two scummy position.

Vi - I have known Sando in real life for ~12 years, including living together during university. We're good friends in real life. I've watched some of his games thoroughly and played in two completed ones. He has a very aggressive and prickly style that tends to attract suspicion. I actually see a lot of similarity between the start of this game and the start of the last game we played together, where he was the D1 lynch as a townie. I don't have nearly as much of a town read on him in this game as I did in the other, but the day is young.

[SerialClergyman]

Yes....

Vi, I don'tk now if you were following the game, but here is the answer to your issues: the previous incarnation of this game

A quick skim of sando and why he was lynched D1, and a quick skim of my defense of him and pushing of Amished might give you a clue as to VP's attitude, my attitude and sando's playstyle.

What was weird to me about the exchange with VP was that, at least form my perspective, he made a bad point on Sando, I pointed it out and he went straight to 'you're full butt hurt for your friend'. No looking at other games I've played with sando where were town-town fought and scum accused, no acknowledgement that in the game he's drawing his conclusions off I was right and the wagon I was pushing instead was scum that was never lynched. And I barely said anything in sando's favour, my main point was that VP was deflecting with a shallow attack.

It doesn't feel right from him.

[SerialClergyman]

Vi, that's rubbish. If you are going to say that an argument has personal links rather
than deal with it on it's merits, it really is your responsibility to do that work. I'm not playing his oracle, all I did was say that he was indeed scumhunting and vp's criticism is unfair. As far as I'm aware, you agreed with that point (with the proviso that in earlier posts you felt he wasn't providing much of content) so i'm not seeing where you are coming from ATM.

However, I'm officially jumping ship to charlatan. I'm going to avoid confirmation bias if it kills me and I get the impression I'm on the wrong track, good reasons or no.

unvote, vote charlatan

[SerialClergyman]

It's not just that point, it's also calling out vp for denying mentioning lal when that was an obvious communication error and not a scum tell.

Since when do you lay off voting someone in deference to a possible defence? Get loose baby.

[SerialClergyman]

Sure.

The communication part comes because he thought all my points pertained to his attack on you, he hadn't realised the first was about his attack on Scien. But the memory component is just as powerful, so if you want to lump it in that category, go ahead.

[SerialClergyman]

Troll - almost certainly, yes. Mysterious indeed.

To stick up for ABR somewhat, I have specific meta of Albert town making the request to not hunt for connections in a friends and enemies game.

[SerialClergyman]

VP didn't, Amished, PorkchopExpress did.

[SerialClergyman]

VP and Amished - what do you think of Ojanen so far?

VP - I am going off the town hunt thing. I wasn't successful so much in correctly identifying town - I was OK, but not great. The lessons from it are 1) beware of conf bias early at all costs and b) be very prepared to look for townies as well as look for scum.

I was already going off the strict look purely for town when I played 880, hence I pushed Amished scum, and i've been doing a mix of both for a little while now.

Charlatan - you looked at two arguing parties and said you didn't like either person's argument and are now preparing to vote one of them. Essentially, you didn't comment on the argument, explain which arguments you thought were good or not and you left yourself room to vote for whichever one started losing the argument. It wasn't just opportunistic, it was setting yourself up to be opportunistic later when you really could tell what was the best wagon to hop on.
And if two people are arguing against each other with poor reasons (aside from the facti t's early on D1) I don't know why you wouldn't address the issues. It seems really odd to me to have two opposite players you find scummy for attackign someone with bad reasons, yet being ready to join one of them to attack the other.

VP - the meta of Albert is from an ongoing F&E game where he said not to look for connections in game then died and town flipped.

[SerialClergyman]

Charlatan, if you have an argument between player A and player B and you're voting A but say you could be prepared to vote B because they are both scummy then yes - this is still fence sitting and you still look to be opportunistically waiting to commit to one side of the wagon. Your major objection seems to be that you were already voting Albert, but my main criticism has always been that you found two people arguing with each other each scummy, which is at least a conflicting view of the game.

When asked about why weak reasoning is scummy, you suggest that scum are likely to start looking at ways they can attaack players, not looking at things players should be attacked for. This implies that you don't like weak reasoning because it shows scum looking for reasons to attack townies.

So if you don't like Albert's weak reasoning, then presumably that should give you town vibes on VP. Yet you didn't have those vibes, you thought he was scummy too. But, again presumably, you couldn't be using the same arguments as ABR, because they were stretched and why you were voting for ABR in the first place!

I had to shake my head to try to get it back on straight after that. My criticism (which isn't affected by whether you had voted one of them first, incidentally) is that you were fence sitting between two arguing parties with this internally inconsistent view that they were both using weak reasons to attack a townie. Saying you are comfortable voting the person your current top suspect is attacking with weak reasons is indeed scummy to me.

Looking back over your posts, I'm not sure what you ever found scummy about VP, aside from jumping on my point about VP's LAL which was again pretty opportunistic and scummy given that at the time you did so it was obviously a mistake.

No, I really do not. I have already explained that the only way I know to get anything close to sincere responses out of Rampage

is to attack him, and to do so at full speed.

So, if I had actually answered this question it would have looked like this: "Well, Vi, I am voting him because he did a scummy thing and I want to put some pressure on him and see if it gleans more information."

Since pressure votes are pointless when you say that's what they're for, I decided I would not answer that question at that moment.

That was instance #2 in this game of me putting too much faith in this playerbase.

Unvote.

How do you balance this viewpoint of the game with this:

Zorblag can definitely attest to how reluctant I am to provide reasoning when asked. I say what I mean and mean what I say when I think it's the time for me to say it. What do you think of VPB's rising scumminess?

Just that, that it is indeed rising. I think arguments on both sides of the fence are contrived, and am comfortable with voting in either direction more than for anyone else in the game at this time.

It seems to me you were far from attacking him full speed, in fact during this piece of play you were actively agreeing that his target was rising in scumminess and indicating you found his target scummy. You have a lot of rhetoric about getting in Albert's face, and aside from a vote on someone else's reasoning (well, bits of it anyway, because apparantly some of the OMGUS action is OK and some of it not) I just haven't seen that from you.

Now, as for your vote on me, do you think I'm the most scummy person in the game after your re-read? Did I overtake Albert or are you just not keen to place your vote back on him?

I'm not getting your case at all though. You never actually address a single argument I raise, more when I raise it and why. So I voted VP on gut and then afterwards tried to crystalise why I was feeling like that. It was spurred by a particular post VP made that I didn't like and I went back trying to collect a few of those kinds of statements to give people an understanding of why I was voting him.

I thought my reasons for voting you were self-evident given I had previously pointed out two major things you did that were scummy and that you had risen to 2nd on my scumlist. When I decided that I was likely to be wrong on VP I switched over to you - my previously mentioned second suspect.

I then had to explain in detail why I felt your fencesitting was scummy, which you objected to primarily because you were already voting Albert, which I see as largely irrelevent. I've tried to expand on that above, but in the end I don't care whether you think it's a scumtell or not, fencesitting and fanning the flames of an argument by saying both sides are scummy is a scumtell.

And your drawing a connection of me to Rampage is odd in that you feel his agreeing with my argument against you gave me 'permission' to vote you. Do you think if we were scum together I'd need his permission to switch votes?

[SerialClergyman]

As for me pointing out the timing of things, I think your votes suggest the opportunism that you are ironically accusing me of. You've spent half of your energy voting where the action is with flawed justification and the other half defending your right to irrationally defend Sando.

I have to run but arg sentence of extreme irritation.

I've made very few comments on Sando's alignment this game, and in the two other games I've played with him, I've accused him of being scum and town respectively. And then as for opportunism, I think both times I voted someone I was placing the first vote on that person. So if the action is centered around me, it's because I made it via, you know, content and arguments.

><

[SerialClergyman]

Ddd I think you're wrong about amished. Second option?

[SerialClergyman]

Charming.

I wasn't trying to convince you, I was asking if you would tell me your send best scum read.

[SerialClergyman]

Another game has eaten up a fair bit of my time, sorry for that.

Charlatan, I don't like it when people question gut. Players rolling off gut reads is the way to play. In fact, you're attacking me not for having a gut read on VP but then expanding upon it later.

I echo ABR and Ojanen about semantics. Your point about factual inaccuracies, which you rely upon a lot, is nothing more than a semantic issue that is so close to what you actually said as to be almost indistinguishable. I'd also like to hear what parts of VP's postings you didn't agree with.

@ all: Where are the votes? I'm seeing Vi, Ojanen and others agreeing or actively arguing against Charlatan and not seeing the votes coming forth. I find Ojanen's lack of a substantial vote particularly disturbing, given I found it scummy way back in 290 when she voted Porkchop (hence why I asked a couple of others who have a meta of her what they thought.)

I have just pushed a case on DDD based on his lack of input D1 and been burned by him being town, so I'm not too enthusiastic about making the same mistake twice, although his content has been abysmal in my eyes. I'd also like an answer as to your second highest suspect, please.

I will admit that the wagon on Porkchop has some merit though. He asks charlatan why he would unvote and leave his vote up in the air rather than vote his next top suspect but he also hasn't moved his vote from the RVS stage. He says it's unreasonable of DDD to hide behind a playstyle of his own choosing, but that doesn't help anything really - it's certainly not an argument for DDDscum, more just DDDinconsiderate or something like that.

Finally, I'm not quite enamoured with Albert yet. I haven't seen him move out of second gear, and definitely wouldn't consider him any better than neutral at the moment.

[SerialClergyman]

Also - why no Trollspeak?

[SerialClergyman]

Zzz

[SerialClergyman]

Can't say anything, asleep from your boring DDD-hunt.

[SerialClergyman]

Here is the link to the DDD game i referred to.

If you promise not to look at my reads, this is what's making me very hesitant about the DDD wagon. I made almost identical points to you, I think.

[SerialClergyman]

We even ditched the chumps who didn't want it last time!

[SerialClergyman]

4am, quick post:

sando - I am not - if you search in iso you'll see I answered that to VP earlier. I've admended my D1 playstyle back to doing a mix of both and have been for a little while now.

@whoever asked: I don't have much of a read on sando at all right now. I feel he hasn't really gotten into the swing of the game yet.

@Ojanen - what sando said. One of the few ways I can tell you're scum is that you are less reckless. Either way you make well constructed arguments which are well-researched, but as scum you tend to hold off on your vote for a long time and add to the discussion without leading the discussion. Your lack of vote this game worries me.

[SerialClergyman]

To be honest, this conversation should be had over a beer. I don't see the relevence to the game. The past is the past, you can't rely on your history to make the case for you.

I'm happy with the charlatan case and unhappy with ojanen pushing it but not jumping on it.

[SerialClergyman]

Ugh Amished, I hate those questions. At the risk of echoing some of VP,

1) His early positions were vague and weak. Fence sat on VP vs ABR, when called to had very little challenging VP at all, including some things that were arguably flat out contradictions. Tried to use the LAL point after it was obviously null and others had seen it come and go.
2) His attacks have been terrible. The case against me was always bad and a bizarre choice no doubt inspired by the position he was in and the pressure he was under. He then moved to VP for no paritcular reason (I mean come on - if we're voting based on urgency I don't have to move my vote at all!)
3) Shenanigans! Little things I don't like. Unvoting for a re-read and then voting a third party with nothing really instigating the change. The tone of his posts, his choice of targets, how difficult it is to get people who suspect him to vote him, the hyperbole..

[SerialClergyman]

ABR, PCE is up there as scummy for me too but I'm not done with charlatan yet and I'm frustrated you'd pull yet another wagon to distract. Do you have a town read on charlatan now or are you just more confident about PCE?

[SerialClergyman]

To be fair, VP, I think we've only actually been town together once in a completed game, Bigbear's one in which we lost terribly (and agreed on scum D1 though).

Emerald I was scum,
Amished you were cult,
/inv 4 you were scum,
Dark Goma you were scum,

So maybe that's why we haven't agreed much. Interestingly, the results for those games seem to be going my way as well - is that 3.5 to 0.5?

[SerialClergyman]

A wise man whose ego may be raised as an unfortunate byproduct of me saying this, once taught me not to try to convince the person you're attacking.

I have looked instead at others who haven't voted you and tried to get them on board, which was the purpose of providing Amished with the reasons to vote you in the first place.

The walls between us have reached a point of diminished returns. I don't think you've answered well. Judging by apparant suspicion of you, we have a majority of the town that's prepared to lynch you, but the votes on you never quite reach where they should be reaching. Your attacks remain terrible. I still think you're scum and want to continue voting you because of that.

[SerialClergyman]

Ugh. See! Yuk. Terribad argument. Does that apply to me as well, charlatan, given last game I went to my death on D1 advocating lynching Amished-the-scum?

[SerialClergyman]

wtf is this, heckle-VP day?

If it was heckle VP day I'd point out that I think I called you out as scum (or at least had very heavy suspicions of you) in all three.

Oh - oops!

Amished - I'd already been moving away from walls, which is what i was saying to charlatan. But I understand your point. I have consistently mentioned that it's hard to draw votes onto charlatan recently, not just in 458.

I was mostly poking fun, don't take things so seriously. He knows what I'm referring to, and anyways I'm of the general opinion that any time you're certain someone's town in the first day or two of the game, that's when it's best to rethink.

Fair enough. I'm probably the wrong person to say this too though, I've actually tried playing games where for the first day ALL I do is look for town and then lynch pretty much randomly amongst the rest. I think town reads are important, and especially so early.

[SerialClergyman]

I agree with you that he made bad arguments. If you ask me, this is more a question of skill than alignment however.

This is rubbish.

[SerialClergyman]

I'm going to have limited access to mafia for a day or two, so I'll probably only be able to make small mobile posts, not large keyboard posts. (Cue joy)

[SerialClergyman]

What a sexy wagon on charlatan. Man. Who wouldn't want to get on that puppy.

[SerialClergyman]

We've just had a game where charlatan skillfully convinced the entire town that he was a townie. He never looked like being lynched and didn't make any glaring mistakes that I noticed.

Why then would we assume his ability was poor this game? Why would we suggest, as Albert does, that he will make 'more' mistakes later on during the game?

Rubbish.

[SerialClergyman]

My point is not to make a meta argument for charlatan being scum, my point is that dismissing his bad arguments as a lack of skill doesn't ring true, we all know him to be a skillful player. When a player I know to be skillful makes bad arguments, I view it as scummy.

So far Albert's arguments seem to me to be the opposite of what I expect.

I don't see charlatan's lynch as an easier solution than PCE, or charlatan as a player who one can dismiss bad arguments as bad play.

[SerialClergyman]

I don't know, Ojanen. I actually like most of the people on the charlatan wagon (pre-ABR and Reck) as town, despite the flip.

I really don't like Albert's play this game but I can't tell if it's scummy. I felt he changed to charlatan using a case based on entirely other people's reasoning. He can claim he was right all he likes today, but he jumped on the wagon when he didn't need to (the absense of a deadline gives you asm uch time as you need to make your case, not rushes you into a lynch).

But what's the motivation? Jump in, get a townie lynched and try to ditch the responsibility? I don't know.

As for lynch suspects, I think Ojanen, Reck or Porkchop are all there for me.

Why did the case on Porkchop die, Albert?

[SerialClergyman]

Ojanen, I still feel pretty happy about VP being town, as I do for everyone on the charlatan wagon barring ABR and Reck. Was my answer unclear?

Albert, what was the purpose of your long post before voting charlatan?

[SerialClergyman]

This is true.

Right. Lets get some looseness happening here.

Let's lynch Reck. Bonus town points for people who do it without explaining their reasons.

and....

GO!

vote Reck

[SerialClergyman]

Vi - xRx came onto my scumlist during the wagon hopping yesterday and PCE was always lightly scummy, I just thought the charlatan argument wasn't resolved

I will admit that the wagon on Porkchop has some merit though. He asks charlatan why he would unvote and leave his vote up in the air rather than vote his next top suspect but he also hasn't moved his vote from the RVS stage. He says it's unreasonable of DDD to hide behind a playstyle of his own choosing, but that doesn't help anything really - it's certainly not an argument for DDDscum, more just DDDinconsiderate or something like that.

ABR, PCE is up there as scummy for me too but I'm not done with charlatan yet and I'm frustrated you'd pull yet another wagon to distract. Do you have a town read on charlatan now or are you just more confident about PCE?

This is the third game I'm playing with Reck and I can't make heads or tails of his play. Honestly, it's frustrating me to no end and I'm wondering whether it's worth chickening out on the play and taking a bit more time on this.

Where's Albert?

[SerialClergyman]

I felt like of the wagon yesterday, even though it was on town, that the first 5 members were all pretty townie. That's VP, you, me, Amished and Troll. The last 2, Albert and Reck, didn't come accross like that. The switch to PCE and then the charge back seemed odd, and I've asked Albert what the purpose of his big post denouncing charalatan and voting him at the end of D1 was without response.

But Reck's movements were also poor and his suspicions are all over the place. I started the wagon to see what sort of gut support there was for a Reck wagon. Turns out there's absolutely plenty. This is not necessarily a good sign. It either means he's obv scum and me calling for a wagon awakened a bit of gut in people, or it means that he's a good mislynch and the opportunists have popped on board.

As much as I was an instigator, as far as I'm aware I've given no reasons for anyone to join the wagon, so it's not like I've pushed it other than give people a license to join it. VP made a case and joined directly after I suggested it and Albert now seems very keen to lynch, both somewhat out of nowhere.

I'm more and more convinced that DDD is town. I think sando is quite possibly town, unless he's going for an epic derail with a buddy at L-1.

Ojanen is still straddling them iddle on every argument, it seems. It's hard when she's semi-VLA, and in Reck's case I too am sitting on the fence I suppose, but you know:

Sucks so bad that I'm in the same place as with charlatan wagon again.
Reck could well be scum and there's a bunch of arguments I can relatively easily see against him, but not sure yet if he's scummy scummy or susceptible to peer pressure (cause I was feeling it end of D1 too)+not big on memory. Gut isn't convinced either way and that's all that's ever been worth anything in my reads. Aaaargh.

:/

You know what? I'm going to go with my gut and

unvote, vote Albert

I could be completely off base about this but a few things disturb me. I don't know why Albert would vote charlatan with a large case and then the next day talk about how right he was about charlatan being town. Then the 'I would have defended him if he was more useful' and 'his badness was good for a vote but not a lynch' when his vote was at l-1.

I don't like how Albert has been rushing every lynch, calling for deadlines and the like. This is the exact opposite of behaviour he displayed in the ongoing previously mentioned where he wanted to use as much time as possible to gain information.

I don't feel Albert's pressure is the usual townxplosion that I get from him, either. A bit of arrogance and strutting does not a town Albert make.

And I don't like Albert's turning on Reck, who he was siding with all day 1. Especially because Albert has repeatedly said that Reck's scumminess has been all game, not just D2.

Perhaps this is a day early, but that's what I'm feeling at the moment.

[SerialClergyman]

I wasn't particularly planning on it.

Albert, even if I completely accepted that, why then did you feel you ha to vote him with an accompanying page-long case/lecture/whatever?

[SerialClergyman]

My obvious raw sexual magnetism has apparantly reached new heights. Those blue eyes

are

dreamy...

[SerialClergyman]

In game related terms -

If your first vote was a good vote, what was your second one? A bad vote? You still haven't answered why you decided to decided to wax lyrical about my case on charlatan and vote him when you were certain he was town - even if you thought his lynch was inevitable.

I actually tried to find it and couldn't, and thought I was going totally insane, but then I went to the end of Day 1 and I realise you made it under a different account. Why did you post that under your 'Rampage' account and not under your 'Albert B. Rampage' account?

The post is here

[SerialClergyman]

And yet you spent the start of the day crowing about how right you were about him being town while you were on his wagon. Same with PCE - you were 85% sure (that's a quote) that he was scum yesterday and have not touched him today without giving a reason except something vague about 'not being able to afford to lose him'.

[SerialClergyman]

Serial, you seem to be saying that your vote on Reck was to see how ABR reacted, and that he reacted as you expected scum to react (jumping on the wagon). Are you saying this was your plan all along?

No, it wasn't nearly as formulated as that, and it didn't have Albert in mind. I felt that Reck was scummy on gut and I wanted to see if other players were of the same mind. What was surprising was how quickly the wagon got to L-1 from me simply saying 'hey gaiz, lets lynch reck kthx'.

My switch to Albert was made because of the reasons given, it wasn't a premeditated trap.

The case on VP is not bad, and I'm glad to see Ojanen psyching up. I'm sorry I continue to point out when you don't take a position, even if it's obvious, but it's important that you don't get away with it. Besides, we can use your vote if you're scum, you bus-machine

I would like to hear from both Vi and Troll please. Vi on developments and Troll on VP.

[SerialClergyman]

Usually I write up good reaosns and don't convince anyone. To get two more votes, almost up to his lynch, was odd, yes. Plus that apparantly doens't include VP, who didn't vote him despite writing a case against him (correct me if that's wrong).

[SerialClergyman]

See, it's obviously a win-win. Hmm, how did this thing work? Oh yeah.
I'm sooo awesome. You should get on my sexy wagon.

You don't need the first bit - that's implied.

I might, actually. Will have a bit of time to think.

In the meantime, Alberty, what's with the Vi townread? I've been noticing a pattern of shitstirring that I'm uncool with.

[SerialClergyman]

Ugh appeal to Zoblag authority. [godfather] Every time I try to get out you pull me right back in [/godfather]

When I said Vi was shitstirring, I didn't mean you were kicking arse and taking names, I meant you were asking questions that might be designed to get others arguing with each other, rather than direct questions. Upon review, I think that perception was coloured by asking me to respond to sando's brief meta argument and it actually wasn't as much of a pattern as memory suggested it was.

Interestingly, the people who I think aren't shining examples of scumhunting are the people I feel most comfortable are town. I think sando and DDD are both quite probably town.

Now we've just got to sort through the rest of the bunch.

I don't know that ABR is being ABR. He's got the arrogance and everything, but I'm not seeing the fire, and the tunnelling and the passion so much. I expected the OMGUS vote on me, but then drifting off somewhere else is odd. Plus I don't see a reason why he's gone from PCE is scum to we can't lynch PCE. (let alone having about 3 people who he is sure are scum).

Having said all that, I saw a bit in Ojanen's case that was disturbingly hitting home. Zorblag and I thought Amished was a mason warning us off voting VP on D1, which is what all our crappy secretive code structure was and the double take from me on D1. I imagine the scum were trying to kill masons, so either someone else noticed it or troll is looking scummy. Or our fail secret talk gave it away.

Plus at the moment my wagon has not a huge amount of support, and hito is voting without Albert meta, I think.

[SerialClergyman]

Albert, why does a vanilla claim here mean we have to lynch, but a vanilla claim in our previous friends and enemies game give you a town read?

[SerialClergyman]

The 'sexy wagon' reference was a game where Ojanen replaced in and I asked her to join the wagon I was pushing at the time by saying 'come join my sexy wagon'. Unfortuantely for me she was also scum, didn't bus her buddy and killed me that night.

But the fact she referenced it and the way she finally took something up and responded to the pressure a little more vigorously is good times.

@ Albert: Fair enough.

Reck's is a poor wagon, imo.

vote VP Baltar

[SerialClergyman]

That was a different game, sando, that was the one with bigmc etc, not the previous incarnation of this one.

My understanding is that he feels I derailed the reck lynch then worked my way off Albert and onto VP, who is town. I think that's right - it doesn't make sense to vote my scumbuddy Albert out of the blue if Reck is town, and it doesn't make sense to work my way off of Albert and onto VP if Albert is town, so I think that's his opinion at the moment. If I've misrepresented you, by all means correct me, hito.

I think in vacuum that indecisive 'I might join another wagon' thing can be a red flag, it's just in the context of who I was talking to and about that his theory pretty quickly descends.

[SerialClergyman]

Vi, assume sando is town, who is scum?

[SerialClergyman]

If one of your major assumptions about who si scum is incorrect that doesn't cause you to rethink? You'd keep the same scum list?

Explain sando's denouncement of the reck wagon, if reck is either town or scum, from a sando-scum perspective.

[SerialClergyman]

I don't think I would be a good person to ask about the workings of Sando's mind, because they make less than no sense from where I'm sitting.

xRx wasn't getting lynched the first time; that was the entire premise of my vote then. Denouncing the wagon, regardless of xRx's alignment, couldn't have been difficult to do. At present, Sando hasn't expressed an opinion of the people on xRx's wagon (but I'm assuming you're not referring to this one as the denounced wagon) and has deliberately avoided talking about him all Day. Aside from general spite and meanness considering I was the one asking those few times, I don't know why he would avoid the subject (as well as ABR+VP Baltar, another one of the blatantly obvious topics of the Day).

This is a lot of rubbish, I think.

Firstly - of course you're speculating on sando's mind, you're speculating that his actions are scum motivated. Whether we're equipped to or not, the point of this game is to make that judgement about people.

Reck had every chance of being lynched earlier. He was at L-1 with many people pushing his lynch (including Albert, whose ability to secure lynches of his suspects is in my mind his most valuable trait. If he's town, sando put a lot of effort into pushing against the lynch. It would have been a really simple mislynch and instead he made what I think is a genuine effort to derail the wagon. If reck is scum, then sando would have had to be attempting a derail from L-1 and really creating ties with reck, and I don't think sando would act like that either.

In short, in that particular passage of play (not all wagon derailments, obviously) I really feel sando showed he was protown.

[SerialClergyman]

He's not scum.

No self voters are ever scum

[SerialClergyman]

I was just wrong. I thought the speed and size of Reck's wagon, coupled with his eclectic style meant that he probably wasn't scum. I expected him to flip town. I don't agree that Sando's efforts make him look like scum, I don't think sandoscum would wait so long to defend a buddy who was at L-1.

The self-voting thing was a joke about an ongoing game with Ojanen and ABR. I didn't think he'd flip scum, though.

[SerialClergyman]

I get that I didn't 'start' the wagon on Reck. I think that my voting him directly lead to him being put to L-1 within a few votes and drew out reasons without votes from VP. All this doesn't matter, however, because I actively tried to diffuse his wagon afterwards and attacked one of his major attackers in Albert. I think on the whole, it's unreasonable to try to claim town points for pushing Reck's lynch. I was against it at the end, just wrongly so.

My view differs from Albert's. I'll agree about hito and you can have my vote in a sec. I still have a town read on DDD. He was actively pushing Reck before many other people. I don't think it's necessary that both scum were on the wagon.

I think ABR, DDD, Sando are town. That leaves scum between hito, VP, Vi and Troll.

vote hito

[SerialClergyman]

Sando - essentially my reads have been pretty bad this game. I do think VP is scummy (remember him writing a case against Reck but not voting?) but I also decided that my reads were pretty bad and Albert was (town and) spot on, so it was time to wagon up.

For Ojanen - I pressured her more than most people did this game. I also am in another ongoing game where she was sick and knew she was town so was aware that I had to take her meta with a grain of salt. So my attack on her was measured for a reason.

For meta - Zzz what's with people trying to use my meta all of a sudden? Go tell VP about that dog with a bone bit, it might be useful for another game. I don't walways play jovial, and I've had limited time so my posts are much less infrequent. I never claimed a gambit to get Albert to OMGUS me, I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. The only thing that could possibly be referring to is my vote on Reck without reasons, which was to gague whether anyone else found him scummy on gut. As it turned out, I misread the results as -scum are piling onto easy wagon- rather than -everyone agrees he's obvscum-, so my bad. But how that related to a gambit to get ALbert to OMGUS me is beyond me.

The charlatan case - was weak, check, it was a D1 case (and wrong). I had different opinion on ABR's movement on the wagons on D1 and D2 because charla flipped scum inbetween those days.

So Serial is stating that Charlatan’s meta has changed from last game, where Charlatan was scum, so Charlatan must be scum?

Serial is not stating that. Serial is stating that saying charlatan is a stupid, bad town player as opposed to a scummy player (as ABR did) doesn't make sense because I know him to be an excellent player, as evidenced by last game.

So Serial starts a wagon, realises ‘oh crap, I just started a wagon on my buddy’, and derails.

This happens regularly to me. ><. Reck wasn't worth saving if I was his buddy, especially not in such a public manner.

[SerialClergyman]

My gues, should I be lynched here, is that another supporter of the hito lynch will probably die tomorrow.

You should kill hito tomorrow, and probably VP after that.

I've been sitting here tryign to work out why you should think I'm town compared to hito (aside from my response to Sando, which addressed a few things directly.) Usually I can point to a wagon or a read that was pretty good but this game not really so much. The best I can say is that looking at my positions it's patently obvious I don't have a plan and do have plenty of doubt.

Interestingly, the very posts hito makes seem to me to betray that he does indeed have that information.

Notice what happened here. Reckoner was at L-1, and then suddenly these two slipped off of the wagon (and let's be honest, THEY were specifically what made the Reck wagon seem less popular and possible today.) They did it by 'gunning' for each other, but now ABR seems to have forgotten SC entirely and SC has been doing his damndest to suck any energy from the ABR wagon while he's sitting on it.

I'm calling it - if ABR flips scum, SC is probably scum with him.

See - it's written as if Reck had already flipped. It also makes no strong stand (we'd need to have ABR flip, and flip a certain alignment, before he makes a solid prediction.) The actual accusation itself isn't revelatory at all - I was openly and honestly discussing my doubts about ABR and my opposition to the Reck wagon.

'm liking VP's lynch list because it's more or less right in line with my own (though I'm also willing to go for SC). I disagree, though, that we should 'stop beating this dead horse.' VP, we seem to be the only ones that notice the horse is dead at all, and I think this is worth some more work.

As I said from the start, it's hard not to like a Reck lynch when confirmed townies love it so, but this resistance to an ABR lynch is something I want to push at now, rather than defer to.

This is the actual way a scum player attempts to derail their partner's lynch, as opposed to the Sando way.

I'm kind of aggravated that while I feel ABR came off greatly for the worse in that exchange everyone else seems inclined to pretend it never happened because his vote is back on Reck. That being said, lynching Reck is a hell of a consolation prize so I'm not as mad as I normally would be.

Vi, I'll probably be with you tomorrow on that Sando lynch (I'm gonna re-read him tonight with his most recent posts in mind). But for now, what the hell:

unvote, vote: Reckoner

And that is L-1 for real this time.

And thisi s the way an actual scum player sneaks in at the end of a wagon to bus their buddy before it's too late.

[SerialClergyman]

Good one sando. Now all you have left to do is find the part where I didn't agree that VP was scummy and quote it. Or claiming I was tempting Albert into OMGUSing me part. Or the part where I argue that charlatan's meta changing means he's likely to be the same role.

Because I've actually done none of those things.

[SerialClergyman]

Zzz.

Re-think, sando.

DDD - Hito is at L-1, I'm at L-2 and you're theo nly one unvoted. I believe I have hito, sando and Vi on my wagon, and he has me, ABR, Zorblag and VP.

[SerialClergyman]

There are three reasons why I'm talking like this to sando.

1) If I get into a wall of text argument with him, he will settle into his side of the argument and never change. I'm trying to get him to challenge his own reasoning, rather than doing it for him and putting him in the place of the antagoniser.

2) When I asked him to provide quotes for three of his major points against me, he couldn't. Even without a long argumentative process, I'm hoping that will cause him to reassess a little.

3) I'm being a bit sulky, which is not an attractive trait, so will try to psyche up.

Sando - I think that there is absolutely nothing of substance in the Albert and Charlatan issues you have with me. I've explained them from my point of view and I think your characterisation of them is really just not there.

The Night kill point you have the basis for something correct, in that in that game I whinged about people not looking at my death. This is all true. It would have been a good thing for me to do here as well, given it led straight to Reck on D2. But I didn't look at it as much as I could have. I never dismiss the case on VP, but I don't pick it up as much as I could.

SO, you know, sue me. There are plenty of other factors in making the decision, I didn't choose this particular one as much as you'd like, in a totally subconscious way.

If you think this is a scum tell, essentially you're saying that scum has to be me and VP (because why would I not push town VP in this way). Do you think that a SC/VP scumteam is that likely? Could you put it on ice to knock off another scummy player in hito and if he flips scum then your tell is looking a lot less likely to be successful?

[SerialClergyman]

Hito, my thoughts on Albert have been pretty well documented.

I was neutral on him through D1. He started irritating me on D2 by claiming how right he was with charlatan despite posting a case against him and voting him. I've tried to get him to answer why he made that post but he hasn't responded IIRC. When I asked people to join me on Reck, and Albert was suddenly on and giving permission to hammer L1, I got very suspicious. I said in my switch to vote him that this might be a day early, meaning perhaps I should wait till Reck flipped to see whether the case on Albert was a good one.

Once I switched I had mediocre support. Your case was based on a lot of stuff that Albert can meta away (the OMGUS, for example). Then Ojanen started psyching up and my suspicions were all turned around. I thought her points about VP were solid and my wagon on Albert was going nowhere. I fully expected Reck to flip town. He didn't.

This put Albert's scumminess out the window, because I don't think he'd bus like that and the fire came back into him. It also shook me and my confidence in my understanding of the game. As far as I'm is concerned, Albert is town. DDD too.

[SerialClergyman]

Told you VP - sometimes sullen and silent is the way to go

I'm Vanilla.

Don't hammer till sando gets a chance to read and think about everything.

[SerialClergyman]

Yo Albert - full page post reading the scummy motivations for that post which was scummy as all hell please. Get your psychology on and analyse my posts and do that thing where you use your extensive conditioning to determine my real scummy intent.

[SerialClergyman]

And don't use that simulpost to pretend like you didn't hear - I want to be profiled...

[SerialClergyman]

It's not my understanding of how Albert plays. I can see him settling for a bus, but he was crowing on and on about Reck's lynch for a long time, and was responsible for the second push.

Albert - if I'm going to be lynched by you I deserve to go out with your fire and brimstone.

Vi shouldn't be near confirmed town. I can't think of a single strong post or particularly strong stance. Vi spent most of D2 railing on about sando and then joined his wagon D3. Just.. less impact on the game than I'd have expected from Vi town. No kicking arse and taking names.

[SerialClergyman]

You don't understand - I don't want you to write a case so I can argue with it and all that crap, I want to see you write out a long detailed psychological analysis of me and my moves so I can read it with popcorn and smile...

I promise I won't even touch it in game if you do it...

[SerialClergyman]

That's barely embers and a pumice stone, but thanks anyway. Someone might be in line for a scummy.....


Zorblag - I don't know, you asked a few questions I considered already answered or not something I wanted to talk about (D1 etc). As I said to hito, I thought my opinion on Albert was well-documented, but perhaps it wasn't as clear as it could have been.

[SerialClergyman]

Albert, your bussing theory assumes my derailment after Reck was at L-1 for some time - plenty of time for hito to come in and hammer, IIRC. It also assumes I'd crack under the pressure of a long continued bus,

I think the theory that I didn't intend to have the wagon on Reck skyrocket after my laisse fair (ugh spelling) vote on him has more credence than a deliberate bus that I got cold feet on because my partner hito was too late to the party (remembering if we were scum together we'd have talked about this.)

I'm wondering who is getting complacent.

Zorblag, can't help you. Didn't see it, didn't care, didn't think it was important, had other stuff to say - take your pick. It wasn't part of the stuff I didn't want ot talk about though.

[SerialClergyman]

Looking back I didn't go through in detail why I thought Albert was town, so fair enough to you guys chastising me for it, but I thought it was pretty obvious.

My case involved him oppotunistically voting Reck and calling for his death. If Reck had flipped town there might be something to that, but him being scum just totally blew my case out of the water completely.

If there's one thing that a) wouldn't work and b) would be useless anyway, it's sucking up to DDD. He's just town. And I'm not sucking up to you, I'm trying to get you to post a long case detailing my scumminess for teh lolz after the game

[SerialClergyman]

unvote

thinking.

Hito, do you have any other of your games around that I can check out?

[SerialClergyman]

Tossing you a curve ball - I seriously don't see Albert scum playing as he's been playing. I'll go off and think about if I'm wrong, but how about you go off and do the same. Amend your theory with ALbert town, if you would.

[SerialClergyman]

Does anyone think Ojanen was obviously a mason?

[SerialClergyman]

DDD, I'm getting masive vibes of Commie Mafia.

[SerialClergyman]

Albert, do you remain confident about hito given his change of heart?

[SerialClergyman]

What!? Did he have a heart transplant? I hope that Obama's health reform will soften up the surgery costs for him a bit. Universal health care for all, scum or otherwise, aye?

It's not that simple though.

I think any universal health care plan would have to come with a income based scheme or means testing. If you can afford to pay for health care you should pay, however you would be able to receive a percentage back through a medicare rebate scheme.

Additionally, the government should encourage those who can afford private health care to purchase it. The government could offer tax incentives or rebate a portion of the cost. Businesses should also be encouraged to continue supporting the health care plans of their employee's.

Early intervention would be the greatest saving to any health care system. Catching a potential problem before it becomes something worse is the greatest asset offered by universal health care.

It is also certain that the vast majority of people in this country would be willing to contribute to a universal health care system if it was affordable and maintained the quality of care now available.

/Australian system.

Oh wait, what were we talking about? Ah yes, I'm confident.

Why?

[SerialClergyman]

I'm not talking about your game, I'm talking about any argument with you ever

But OK, that's a start.

The Charlatan thing is here:

Serial wrote:
We've just had a game where charlatan skillfully convinced the entire town that he was a townie. He never looked like being lynched and didn't make any glaring mistakes that I noticed.

So Serial is stating that Charlatan’s meta has changed from last game, where Charlatan was scum, so Charlatan must be scum?

And I don't know what I havne't addressed about it. It was a direct response to Albert's

I agree with you that he made bad arguments. If you ask me, this is more a question of skill than alignment however.

Which remains rubbish for the very reason I put up above. I KNEW that the explanation that Charlatan wasn't skillful was wrong because I'd JUST SEEN HIM BE SKILLFUL.

And your meta point was honestly just shithouse, like really, really bad. You haven't read enough of my games to make those kinds of calls.

As to me assuming that VPB and you must be scumbuddies, that’s very simplistic mate.

This applies to your Ojanen's death point, not your case as a whole. If VP is town, then there's no reason for me NOT to use that style of reasoning.

Interestingly, I think I've been thinking about this the wrong way - maybe I shouldn't be trying to explain why I haven't used this technique enough and instead SHOULD ACTUALLY USE THE TECHNIQUE. As I said, it would have pointed due Reck is we'd used it D2...

Saying that we should lynch Hito today before looking at you confirms this to me.

This is either misunderstood by me or stupid.

I'm entertaining the possibility (in fact, them ore I think about it, probability) that hito actually is town after what he's done. And that means I've got to decide whether I want to try to take his sacrificial mantle. I can see people voting me after a hito townflip, but I'm not sure if people would vote hito after a Serial townflip.

So kids - if I flipped town, would you consider hito's push to save my arse here town-motivated? Are you more likely to think town-hito on my townflip than you are to think town-serial on a town-hito flip?

[SerialClergyman]

My personal feeling on this is similar - in that EVERYONE thinks it's me or hito or 'at least one' of them. This is a fantastic scum narrative if we're both town. If people were to say 'they are definitely scum together' then that's one thing, because on a town flip they'd reevaluate. But essentially a situation has been set up where lynches are being chained, and there's noone who is opposed to the plan.

This suggests at the VERY least that if one of us is town, there's at least one mafia member who is happy for the situation to be that way. So I'm in the position of knowing this to be true. Hito's push away from me makes no sense as scum, which suggests we're both town and therefore both scum are likely to be pushing the 'must be at least one of them' line.

Hito think that one of those is Albert, I don't, but I think the theory is actually surprisingly strong, especially given the fact he's made a grand effort to push it through.

[SerialClergyman]

DDD I meant hito's post looks like raskol after replacing coco to me and the misdirection onto a false dichotomy. I don't think the power bus applies.

Albert, thoughts on hito if I'm town?

[SerialClergyman]

Albert, thoughts on hito if I'm town?

My imagination doesn't stretch that far.

kids these days with their tv and their videogames...

Come on, you just said you'd reasses on my town flip. So give me a hint about what would be banging around that head of yours.

[SerialClergyman]

Nice slip Albert?

[SerialClergyman]

Sando, I thought hito was probably scum and knew I wasn't, that's the motivation for pushing hito like that. I now think I was wrong based on his Albert switch.

The second point I deinitely responded to. I criticises Albert for moving off charla when I thought charla was scum, I criticises him for moving on him after I knew he was town (d2).

The first point - well, it was a day one scum read. I find people fencesitting on two arguing parties as scummy. Obviously I was wrong.

[SerialClergyman]

If we are probably scum, why would another claim pigeonhole the mason pair?

[SerialClergyman]

I agree with me going first.

Coming from my alignment it's obvious hito is town. And worse - if you go, they won't accept that I'm town, whereas they damn well should if I go first.

I've been thinking and thinking trying to answer VPs question about who is mafia. But I can't give you a perfect theory. I've had enough of them over the last few days, but I can't just hitch myself to a perfect pairing because it hasn't come to me.

I am happy to think of DDD as town.
I am happy to think of hito as town.
I am

pretty

happy to think of sando as town. (His obstinance is causing some doubt.)

So that leaves Vi, VP, Albert and Zorblag.

And that's where I'm sitting here going around and around in my head.

Interestingly, this also echoes the group of people that sat smiling and nodding and agreeing with Sando's 928. This is WORTH REMEMBERING when I flip. Thar be scum thar.

But I'm going to give an answer, because an answer is important. And my answer is VP. Partner is beyond me. I've been getting town reads on Albert and Zorblag and scum read on Vi but I think that's just because I've been disagreeing with Vi. Albert is faking town enthusiasm very well if he's scum. Zorblag has posted little enough to be hard to read. So Out of those three I'm struggling.

But VP got hit pretty hard by Ojanen's case on D2. We already know that the scum are killing those who are likely to cause problems, as evidenced by Amished's death. Sando has been chastising me for not using NK analysis and I've been giving excuses rather than JUST DOING IT. Ojanen didn't look obviously like a mason to me. And if she didn't look like a mason, then the reason she'd be the kill would be some WIFOM reason (rarely happens) or respect of her ability (possible, but would be limited to a significantly smaller group including VP) or because she was onto something (VP.)

I'll be disappointed if my bad read (mason on Amished) usurped by good read (scum VP) on D1. But so it goes, if that's the case.

Ojanen's bandwagon point is good. Out of the D1 wagoners, we all moved to Reck except VP.

D1 votecount wrote:
charlatan(4):SerialClergyman, Zorblag, Albert B. Rampage, VP Baltar

D1 votecount wrote:
charlatan(5): SerialClergyman, Zorblag, Albert B. Rampage, VP Baltar, Sando

D1 votecount wrote:
charlatan(5):SerialClergyman, Zorblag, VP Baltar, Amished, Vi


D2 fast wagon (L-1) wrote:
xRECKONERx(5): Debonair Danny DiPietro, Zorblag, SerialClergyman, Albert B. Rampage, Vi

VP's dancing around Reck is worth looking at. He didn't vote as the wagon grew, but did post a case. He then followed my switch to Albert, who had been demanding a hammer on Reck for some time. However, and this gives me them ost doubt, he switches BACK to reck before any pressure on Reck grew. He did test out the waters on a hito lynch with ALbert, but that doesn't seem like enough to inspire him to go back. Ugh. But then he unvotes Reck near deadline then revotes after the self-vote.

He was then able to participate in the conversation about toyota corollas but unable to respond to the gamechanging events that were happening, and didn't unvote despite it being a dicey situation.

[SerialClergyman]

Interesting. We simulposted the same scum list.

[SerialClergyman]

Not important. If I could choose the lynches from here on out, I'd have the masons claim and with the town reads I've got I think that might be enough.

For the town as a whole, if you lynch me you as-close-as-possible confirm hito as town. So the scum don't even have to target the masons, they can just kill hito and we'll be in a 6 man lylo with 2 confirmed.

I think that isn't hugely strong and isn't worth a mislynch.

[SerialClergyman]

In short - we should just try to lynch the person most likely scum. If that's me then so be it, but worries about exposing masons are vastly secondary when we have only 1 mislynch left.

[SerialClergyman]

Why are you taking out sando?

[SerialClergyman]

hito, you are cvruise control for cool.

Vi - this is what I thought was interesting. Are you sticking with sando town or is he in the pool?

[SerialClergyman]

VP, you're right, I've been unable to summon the courage to accuse you properly. I've been frustrated with my reads all game and I've never been confident enough about you to attack you. Ojanen's case hit home for me in a way that was unexpected, given up until then I thought you were possibly town and she was possibly scum. Then when Reck flipped I got totally thrown. But I think I'm back on course, and I think I have enough of a town read basis to start pushing, not to mention Ojanen's flip. I'm still far from sure, but you're head and shoulders above the others.

You're answer to not voting Reck was you didn't want to put him on L-1, which doesn't gel with any of your play so far. You weren't as sure about Reck as you are about me, when DDD said something slightly odd about Reck directing kills you unvoted Reck and said you were thinking yet when hito blows everyone's minds you don't give a toss and keep your vote on overnight and the next day barely mention it. Through mosto f D2 you say that Reck is scummy, but you then jumped on Albert's wagon without that seemingly affecting your read of Reck. I can't make sense of a lot of that with you as town.

And yes, I switched my mind on Reck once. I said we should vote him, then I said we shouldn't primarily because of the reaction to that original call for votes. With you, I count a case without a vote, then a vote on oneo f his biggest attackers, then a vote on him, then an unvote, then a vote on him again.

[SerialClergyman]

sando - he's not saying they'd lynch the other of us BECAUSE of one of us flipping one alignment or another, he's saying a lot of people stated that they shared your viewpoint - we are both scummy and both should be lynched. So it doesn't matter which one goes first, it doesn't matter what the flip is, both will be lynched. This is ideal for scum if we're both town, in fact it's something positively ideal.

Also, *gist and *ridiculous. What shithouse school did you go to anyway?

Maybe it's just me being in the position of the person who's absolutely gunning for Serial today, but how can scum have set up this awesome situation for themselves? Did they magically guess that someones first post of the day would be a fuck-off case on someone not themselves?

This is a key point. Look at the huge bunch of smiling, nodding faces after your case on me. Have you EVER had that sort of a reaction to a case on scum? The scum didn't have to set it up, they just had to say 'I agree with sando, I reckon one of hito or SC is scum' and if that stays the narrative they've won the game. Albert was pushing the other one, so they just needed to do the same thing.

Why is hito town? Because he did what a town player would do in such a circumstance. And it did it gutsily. He had no reason to try to confirm me, in fact if he pushed me a little more then he'd have got his team into lylo. I believe that he was prepared to be sacrificed to try to get the game back on track. His posts have screamed someone who is genuinely trying to find out who the scum are and trying to back himself and his understanding of the game.

Aside from those reasons, which obviously appeal more to me given I know my alignment, it's the position of the town. He's right - too many people are too fine with the 'either or both' scenario. Too little controversy in the reads and the cases. The town are being steered wrongly.

I've also been in a REALLY similar situation in a game called Commie Mafia in my wiki. In that game, the hito-esque player actually self-voted to try to get DDD cleared, and that slowly allowed the town to get itself out of the situation.

[SerialClergyman]

Good point.

vote VP

[SerialClergyman]

What made you go back to voting me?

[SerialClergyman]

Look at the narrative of the first page of the day.

Look at how different it is to what was settled on with the hito/SC thing.

Suspect lists:

VPB - Sando, Albert, Serial.
Vi - Sando and Serial
Albert - DDD and hito, maybe Zorblag
DDD - Albert
hito - Albert and sando
Zorblag - hito and Serial
Sando - hit and Serial

So only you and Zorblag agree on hito + SC.

After you post your case, VPB switches vote to me (partly because of meta /wrists), DDD unvotes after saying you have some goodp oint.

VP then uses Reck meta to add hito to his suspect list, and then vote him, now cementing hit + SC. (~951)

DDD puts hit + SC at top of suspect list. (~961)

Albert settles into hit + SC (~964)

Do you see what I mean? Either everyone just had a towngasm and somehow all saw the light about a Serial/hito scumteam or there is a deliberate attempt to steer it there.

And worse - most people consider us scummy in seperate ways. If everyone said we were obviously partners then that's a prediction that has to be reassessed once there's a townflip. But the 'I reckon at least one or maybe both of them are scum' narrative doesn't even risk that.

[SerialClergyman]

Arg.

Votecount please.

Who is more likely to be town after the townflip of the other, me or hito?

[SerialClergyman]

What is your purpose in asking this question?

To work out who should die if we don't get the support we should.

His play around the Reckoner wagon reeks of scum and

today he seems more than a touch lost,

which is exactly what happens to me as scum when I'm in a game and there is a large set of players calling each other town.

Holy shit in a handbasket VP, THIS IS WHY I AM TOWN. I've been in a situation where i'm scum and everyone is calling for my lynch, Albert knows the game very, very, well and that's NOT my reaction. Lost is TOWN.

[SerialClergyman]

Well, I can at least usei t accurately.

But forget my specific meta then. How do you get lost = scum? The whole purpose of scum is that they ahve the information that the majority doesn't. That doesn't equal lost...

[SerialClergyman]

You suck, Sam.

Can't talk more now, at work. Zorblag making me itch.

[SerialClergyman]

Err, you suck *Sando... Sorry.

My point was a had a go at providing specifics and you seem to have missed it. It's up to you how convincing you found it, but it's unfair to say I've been totally vague.

Having said THAT, a lot of my thinking IS vague at the moment, and I'm a bit like that, so sorry.

I do think that after the flip today it is going to be worth looking at what's happened today and using that to try to figure out who had the most to gain but I'm not interested in holding off on what I think the best lynches are because I'm worried that lynching one of them and having the come up town is likely to lead to the mislynch of the other.

This sentence in particular made me itch. It feels like he knows there will be a town flip. It doesn't look like someone who believes that hito and I are scum fabricating this play. Mmm. Plus saying lynches rather than lynch..

Zorblag, I sometimes miss your questions because I have no idea why you're asking them, I can't see how they'd be relevent. So apologies for not answering it, but maybe a little context or even some stressing of their importnace might help.

I think the best time for a no lynch is right now, if we wanted one. It'd give me a better idea on working out who is scum, wouldn't have any greater chance of hitting town etc etc. If you went into tomorrow with say, me lynched then hito NKed, you could try a no lynch then, sure. In fact, given the fact that hito and I are unlikely to be NKed (this should be uncontroversial whether you think we're scum or town) it'd actually be very similar to no lynching today, but doing it today means hito and I will get to express our views on the subject.

I'll summarise my goals for the day.

1) Find scum and lynch them.
2) Lynch someone who I don't think is town.
3) Ensure that if hito or I are lynched, the one who survives is considered very likely town.

Now, that's obviously from ideal to achieveable. I think that 3) should be very achievable, and the question of who survives doesn't really matter. Even if my ego was large enough to think you'd need me in the end game, I'm sure that if we establish 3) then whoever out of hito or me isn't lynched will be NKed. Even this is definietly an improvement on what happened before hito reversed his opinion on me and made his gutsy move, so he deserves the credit. But it's my responsibility to make it happen. To make it happen, I need to know which of the two of us are more likely to be viewed as town if the other flips. At the moment, I think that hito being town doesn'tn ecessarily confirm me, but me flipping town certainly closely suggests hito is for all the reasons I gave Sando above (why not just have me killed? Why risk getting crushed when he could put me to death and get his team into lylo?)

This is particularly why I was disappointed at DDD's vote, because hito's death is a bad result, and votes on him are bad.

Now, as to goals 1) and 2) - 1) is very difficult. You are all great players and just becaue Ih ad a wakeup call from hito doesn't mean I can solve the game.

So not being able to work out scum easily, we can look at goal 2), but even that is risky. If we lynch Baltar and he's town, that's essentially a loss for us because I know I'll be next. So even 2) isn't much different to 3), provided I can get 3) up. If we all agree to view hito as town on an SC town flip, then we have to make the same lynch as we would if 2) happened, albeit with hito and I dead rather than alive.

Ok, I gotta go, I'll try to post more later.

[SerialClergyman]

I don't think anyone but SerialClergyman would NK Ojanen. Apparently, and according to him, she knows how to read him as scum.

this is evidently not true, Albert. I am a great fan of her abilities. But as you well know, the only game I've played as scum with her she got me completely wrong.

[SerialClergyman]

Ugh, I've tried and I can't do it.

The main problem is if you lynch me and hito gets confirmed, then the scum are pretty much looking at NKing him because it'd surely be too risky to kill someone else and risk going into a 6-man lylo with 3 confirmed (2 masons and hito.)

Now - if I go making a case on someone and really calling people to action, assuming I could even convince everyone, I have a 2/6 chance of getting it right. I don't know where the masons are, I'm not going after hito but essentailyl any of the others of you could be scum.

If I'm wrong, then I'll be lynched the next day. So it's a 1shot thing - hit scum or lose.

If I'm lynched today and hito is NKed, then we have a 2/4 chance of finding scum tomorrow, because the masons can claim and hito and I will be dead. Obviously that's a 1-shot thing as well, but the odds are significantly better.

Now if I couldn't convince you all that hito and I are town, we could go hunt scum merrily and still have a mislynch up our sleeves, but that ship has essentially sailed, with VPB convinced on me, Albert convinced on me, Zorblag still pretty convinced and sando demanding I find scum for him. Not to mention DDD still voting hito.

What's complicating my reads somewhat is that I can't believe so many people who know me and should know better are voting me. Albert has just intimately gone through a game where I won as scum in this very setup and I can't believe he would view my game there as anything like this one. VPB just finished a game with me where he, as town, double voted me at the last minute to ensure I was lynched due to a bad case based on bad meta and little else and yet here we are again. Sando knows me very well and is a pretty logical guy yet he's being as stubborn as a mule, also using bad meta and just being a contrarian.

And I know they can't all be scum, so at least one of them is being a chimp, and whoever that person or persons are is shielding the scum, if any of them are scum.

Zorblag, I appreciate that sometimes you don't want to spell out the purpose of a question, but asking 'should we no lynch tomorrow' doesn't seem like the sort of TRAP SPRUNG question where that applies - it just looks irrelevent. Yes, I think many of your questions have been irrelevent. I don't think you've asked too many, you've just asked those sorts of questions that are unmemorable. (word? spelling?)

So look, I won't pretend I've got anything lefti n the tank. The most important thing is that hito is considered town on my town flip, and from there it's up to the masons to sort out.

You may fire when ready.

[SerialClergyman]

Wait a sec.

Give me one more day and I'll give you my thoughts on everyone.

[SerialClergyman]

Albert, you're either wrong or scum, so turn down the arrogance and give me a day.

[SerialClergyman]

Sure.

So Zorblag can give me one day. It's 2am in Aus and I'm heading to bed.

[SerialClergyman]

Well, you'll find out in one day, won't you?

Out of curiosity - how did you link the nK of Amished back to me?

[SerialClergyman]

You've never seen a game of mine that I lived past D2, IIRC. In fact, you've also never seen a scum game of mine, IIRC. Which is why you using a bad meta case is frustrating.

Commie mafia was when I last felt like this. I was last lynched after being completely wrong in hambargarz. I'veo nly recently been mislynched off bad meta in Vi's game, primarily by VP Baltar town. *glare*

Sando... are you the stupid one shielding the scum....?

And I changed my mind, figured I might as well post up thoughts, which I'll try to work on during work.

[SerialClergyman]

M'okay.

Albert - really, really tough for me to read. I thought suspicious on D2, but Reck being scum and him pushing him pretty hard gave me pause. He's created very few wagons this game, prefering to go off other people's leads. He's done a complete 180 on me today and has been pushing my lynch without a second thought.

Is he scum? Better chance than most, upon reflection. While I think the style is very Albert, he hasn't made his own case, he has barely had a case at all, he hasn't gone through step by step the scumminess of his targets. He's not exactly known as a follower.

And for all his bluster, he's actually done very little. He pushed on hito D1 (PCE), who I think is town. He voted charlatan at L-2 with a wallpost case-that-wasn't-a-case. He got on Reck's bandwagon at L-2, got off it to OMGUS me and do all that sideshow and then got back on it when VP switched. In D3 he's gone after hito and me, both of whom I think are town. For a man that depends on being right to sustain his playstyle, he's either quite off this game or scum.

VP - Ugh, I keep coming back to the Reckoner wagon part 2. I hate that he didn't vote when the wagon was growing and think his excuse pretty lame. I love that he pushed the lynch back onto reck when the Albert and me sideshow was waning. Is being stubborn about this case, but well, not unusual for this case or this game. His flipping town in the other game where he lynched me for bad reasons makes me feel a bit better about this one.

Also - upon reflection I've noticed that Ojanen was actually pretty strongly of the opinion that if Reck was TOWN Vp was scum. I haven't seen him use this defence at all to me invoking Ojanen which does give me a good vibe.

Zorblag - a big pile of meh. I can't think of something he's done that's particularly good. He has a clam and measured tone, but is that enough to excuse constant unsurprising and unforceful reads? His suspects today are most likely both town and he stuck those two together earlier than most. But even then, by the time he named them they had already been named as suspects by many other players.

Is he scum? Ugh. I don't know. I don't think so. Absent yes, uninspired yes, but certainly not pro-actively scum, I don't think he's gone in with a plan. He might be self-defensive scum, just playing safeconstantly, but I don't think he's plannin/manipulating.

Vi - Has spent a lot of the game on sideshows - sando and DDD to name a couple. Is that al ack of commitment to the main wagons? I doubt it's distancing. It could just be a strong read, but then he's forgotten about sando pretty strongly - so much so that he didn't include him in his 'new' list of suspects despite sando being quite obviously a hit/SC person. Getting WIFOM'ed hard about his siding with us, albeit temporarily.

You'd have to ask whether scum are more likely to freak out a little at the hito turnaround and try to get on opposing sides. My guess is probably not, I think Vi is probably town.

Sando, I can't tell if he genuinely thinks what he says he does or not. If he's scum, he's succeeded in winding me up. I was worried that that antagonist would set in, and it well and truly has if he's town. I felt pretty good about him the entire game but just recently when he's done so little to engage with me, he's so vehemently cast aside linked cases which I didn't know he was that strongly against and he's done little to take any sort of verifiable stand, I've been having second thoughts.

Could well be scum, but something about it just suggests to me that he's not. I still think he'd have bussed Reck rather than tried to defend him. And Ojanen, who has hydra'd as scum with him, didn't think he was, so that's not a terrible argument.

DDD I think is town, he's playing to meta and pushed Reck harder than anyone.

hito I think is town, very little reason to do what he did to try to save me. If he's scum playing some weird doublebluff hoping I'd be man enough to take the lynch then he deserves me taking my hat off to him.

Final guess?

Ugh. Don't know the masons, really hard to piece them together. I think there are enough connections between players that once two people are confirmed in the unconfirmed group you guys will have a better chance than me. I'm going to go with Albert and Zorblag. Having said that, I've changed my mind 3 times just writing this post, so take it with a grain of salt.

All the best kids.

Now you may actually hammer.

[SerialClergyman]

Yes, I suppose so.

[SerialClergyman]

The reason why I sound less than keen is that the town would have to essentially agree to have the masons claim today, if that was the case.

Because without the masons claiming, I think it's too much of a crap shoot, and I don't want to risk putting all my chips in the Albert basket and if I'm wrong be the auto mislynch tomorrow.

Better for the town that I'm lynched and confirmed along wiht hito today, and then tomorrow you guys get a 50/50 shot on scum.

[SerialClergyman]

Was town (obviously).

Any questions?

[SerialClergyman]

Can't always pick the scum.

That and closeminded/scummy detractors in the wings.

Do you really think I'd lie after I was hammered? For what, shits and giggles? This is your chance to actually get something from me, might as well take it.

[SerialClergyman]

I don't think you believe that, Albert.

[SerialClergyman]

This is a discussion we could have had pre-hammer, but you were too busy talking about Toyotas.

I still don't think you believe that, Albert.

[SerialClergyman]

Good game kids. I think hito deserves credit for avoiding the mechanism from coming to pass. I would have lynched Vi in lylo for sure, but probably wouldn't have got Zorblag.

I got lynched, it happens. Maybe I could have done something different (time to post was a factor), but I think the flip side of having a lot of good players is that you also have a lot of stubborn, self-convinced players as well. The amount of times town convinced town to change their minds I could count on one hand I think.

I think for the most part, scum played well and deserved their victory.

[SerialClergyman]

Things really haven't gone well for you recently, have they, SC? I started to feel kind of bad when I saw you were getting chainlynched here and in Reverberation.

A little bit.. My run of getting townlynched comes as my time for mafia slipped greatly, and I don't think it's a coincidence.. I tend to play under pressyre because of playstyle and being wrong so I'm used to it, but recently I haven't been able to really finesse my way out of it.

Playing as the model townie doesn't allow you to do much, in my opinion. I like having wild mood swings and poor reasoning for votes.

[SerialClergyman]

@hito

Never say "Lynch me before you lynch Serialclergyman". That's not remotely pro-town, and you can never predict how people's opinion change. Just because you're town doesn't mean he isn't scum, even if you think you know he isn't, it won't be the way other people see it.

I disagree totally with this. It's already made a big difference in another game I've played (Commie Mafia) and it did make a solid difference in this game. There was a very good chance before he did this that hito would follow my lynch or vice versa. His move made this very unlikely.

Me being ok with my own lynch is related - if I'd managed to bully everyone into lynching someone other than hito or myself and was wrong, we'd have lost outright, with my lynch assured the next day. At least with my lynch, the town did have 3 almost certainly town players going into lylo (2 of which unfortunately got picked off by scum, but *shrug*)

[SerialClergyman]

Whether it makes a solid difference or not is irrelevant. It's like quicklynching Day 1 and then claiming it was a great move because it made a big difference in winning.

If quicklynching regularly had good results, it would be worth doing. You're effectively saying that the sample size isn't large enough to make a solid decision, which is reasonable, but it's not large enough either way, which suggests to me that telling off a player for a move that had positive consequences is unreasonable.