Mini 953: Star Control: Alliance Initiative (Over)

[Merkabah]

/confirmareno

[Merkabah]

Shhh....let them finish their pre-game plotting in peace.

[Merkabah]

How do you know there are three scum?

Because I'm awesome like that. Also, I'm sleeping with Miss Cleo.

Vote: Plum

[Merkabah]

Don't really know the flavor at all. Judging from the first game, I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing.

[Merkabah]

@PZ: How confident are you?

[Merkabah]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 7

animorpherv1

- 1 - Riceballtail - (L-6)

bouncy.bouncy

- 1 - Gammagooey - (L-6)

Kast

- 1 - Dry-fit - (L-6)

Merkabah

- 1 - Porkens - (L-6)

Papa Zito

- 2 - CF Riot, cruelty - (L-5)

Plum

- 1 - Merkabah - (L-6)

Porkens

- 1 - Plum - (L-6)

Riceballtail

- 1 - animorpherv1 - (L-6)

Players not voting: bouncy.bouncy, Kast, Papa Zito

@RBT: Ani allowed the town to win that game, what do you have against town winning?

[Merkabah]

I agree with Porkens that Kast's prodding looks like rolefishing and I don't like it. Kast, what benefit to the town was gained by your questioning of PZ?

Who here have you enjoyed/not enjoyed playing with before and why?

If you're not voting, why not?

Do you think that voting/not random voting has any indication on alignment?

What do you think my secret reasons for voting Dry are?

Out of our hydra, I think we've played with everyone except for maybe CF Riot. As far as I'm aware, I don't have an issue with anyone and generally have had good times with most people on the list.

Voting atm.

It depends on the player, but generally no.

He ate the last Toaster Streudal!

Here's a question for you, what is the real aim of these seemingly pointless questions?

I don't know Zito's alignment but because he's behaving this way I'm inclined to believe he's not scum; don't think scum would act as he has.

Why are you inclined to believe his actions are alignment indicative? I don't find him scummy really, but I also don't see any reason for scum NOT to act that way.

[Merkabah]

Oh and

Mod: Is there anyway we could get vote counts in their own posts? Not trying to infringe on your style, but it really makes vote count analysis easier. If you like editing them in, however, I understand.

[Merkabah]

Sigh

EBWOP:

Oh and

Mod: Is there anyway we could get vote counts in their own posts? Not trying to infringe on your style, but it really makes vote count analysis easier. If you like editing them in, however, I understand.

[Merkabah]

I actually prefer votecounts at the top of each page, FWIW.

Why may I ask?

Seems counter intuitive if you actually plan to look back at voting patterns.

Also your username makes Sabbath morning prayers start going through my head. It's uncanny.

haha.

I dunno, I see the pros of both styles of votecounts. If you're willing to put in a little more time, every page votecounts give you more info for your effort on how bandwagons shift.

Meh, I think Spyrex is on site enough that this wouldn't really be an issue, even if he missed a page occasionally, but it's ultimately up to him/the rest of the player list.

[Merkabah]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 7

animorpherv1

- 1 - Riceballtail - (L-6)

Dry-fit

- 1 - Gammagooey - (L-6)

Kast

- 1 - Dry-fit - (L-6)

Merkabah

- 1 - Porkens - (L-6)

Papa Zito

- 2 - CF Riot, cruelty - (L-5)

Plum

- 1 - Merkabah - (L-6)

Porkens

- 1 - Plum - (L-6)

Riceballtail

- 1 - animorpherv1 - (L-6)

Players not voting: bouncy.bouncy, Kast, Papa Zito

Are these posts from different heads in the hydra? If not, how do you discriminate between your request for clarification any mine.

They were made by different heads. While I don't think it was useful, I personally think you were pushing it unnecessarily, whereas I think my better head was kinda giving PZ an out from a somewhat silly strategy if he's town.

In terms of your reasoning:

-Soft claims are rarely beneficial to town. Scum are almost always better setup to tell whether a joke is actually a soft-claim or not.

I mean, I agree that softclaims are useless, but I took it to be an RVS joke really. Why do you think the scum would have better knowledge of it than anyone else? It seems to me that they wouldn't know for certain and would almost definitely want to clarify the soft claim.

IF he isn't scum, THEN scum certainly would have realized he was soft claiming whereas town was still left uncertain. Confirming that information helps town and does not give scum much benefit.

Same as above, I think the scum would need to clarify the information to be sure.

-IF Zito is scum and was trying to get away with a soft claim to buddy/buy cred with Plum, THEN pressing for a confirmation limits his future claims.

Fair enough.

I don't see why Zito felt the need to share that. Plum was not under suspicion or apparent danger. If anything, Zito's claim, makes Plum a better scum target than she would be.

Agreed, unless he was fishing for reactions to kick the game off, which was sort of my interpretation.

[Merkabah]

Merkabah = Amished + VP Baltar , just for the record. I guess kast and Riceballtail were the only ones who would have known this already. Sorry for not clarifying sooner. We decided to hydra this game because I (VPB) really wanted to play in it after I helped Spyrex design the first one, but we're both right at the cusp of too many games and I wasn't sure I would have the time to do it on my own.

@CF Riot, what do you make of PZ's actions calling Plum town? Do you think this is likely to come from town or scum? How seriously would you like to push his wagon knowing this info?

[Merkabah]

Also

@CF Riot: How is a vote with a little reasoning that's easily explained (and you don't believe it's made up anyways) no better than a random vote?

[Merkabah]

Cripes.

lol, what is that supposed to mean?

And happy scumday, RBT! But I can't comment on your bastardness. Sorry.

[Merkabah]

I'm not sure what to think of Zito calling Plum town. I've never played with either of them. Maybe Zito is just talking and it means nothing. Maybe he knows something and he's being serious. Maybe he knows something but he's lying. It's hard to tell this early on. But since all I can do right now is guess, that one comment doesn't mean enough to me to not vote for him.

As he's stated several times, it's serious. I'm not sure how you've missed this, but I ask you again if this affects your read.

Rice, why are you voting him right now?

Except, she is......so.......

Unvote, Vote: animorph

How's that lurking going for you Mr. normally active?

[Merkabah]

Apologies for not posting yesterday, my office was moving all day and Amished is V/LA atm. I'll try my best to get something up today even though the move continues.

[Merkabah]

False. I said the Plum thing was a null on you until I got more info. I didn't say I didn't think you were scum. Now I will admit that the original reason I have for looking at you is other people bringing you up, and not something you've done yourself. It was not the strongest vote. But you currently have the most votes and it's early game, so all those factors combined make me comfortable leaving a vote on you.

I think what PZ is saying is that you are voting him for something you declare null while also saying you see RBT and Dry-fit at least somewhat scummy. I really don't like you are qualifying your vote staying there because PZ "currently [has] the most votes and it's early game"....so what? How is that a reason to leave it there when you see someone else as actually being scummy?

Why not vote Dry-fit, who you happen to find scummy, and who has just as many votes as PZ?

Does not compute.

Unvote, Vote: CF Riot

Actually I really would prefer Dry being lynched

Why?


The speed of this RBT wagon makes me very wary of it. I officially am watching the late comers to it. L-2 in a single page is ridiculous.

[Merkabah]

Cam Merkabah hydra please sign the bottom of the post? It gets really confusing without.

Why is it confusing? I (VPB) have made a large majority of the posts in the game thus far, so I dont' think there have been too many conflicts of opinion (I can only think of one). Additionally, we usually do our best to sort out our differences in our QT, so problems in thread shouldn't be an issue.

[Merkabah]

Merkabah's not paying attention to the game. Might be scum, or just lazy, dunno.

No, I think you're not reading the CF situation properly actually. I was quite surprised you backed off so easily with such a poor excuse.

Unless you're referring to something else, in which case feel free to edify me.

[Merkabah]

It hasn't been yet, but I find it helps to distinguish the players in the Hydra.

Ok, I will do my best to sign my posts, but I find that I tend to forget after awhile so I sort of gave up on doing that. Just so everyone knows, Amished will be V/LA until Monday, so I will try to do my best keeping up with the added burden.

Papa would be a decent lynch too if he wasn't one of the most active person in an entire thread full of lurkers, his behavior just seems off to me and unless Rice/Dry flips scum RF's lack of a vote change doesn't seem scummy to me.

Why specifically did/do you think Papa would be a good lynch?

Currently, I think he's just a non-threat 3rd party.

What? How did you determine this and how did you determine he's a "non-threat"? In the first game there was a Survivor...which becomes a threat in a LyLo situation. We'd like some actual indepth explanation of this.


Additionally, Gamma why are you on the wagon if you gain a power at hammer? Do you trust Porkens enough to be town that you'd rather let him have the power than you?

---

Your claim is eerily reminiscent of this one. I acknowledge that you were quite good at guessing roles from flavor hints; but your guesses were also backed up by knowledge that those players were really town/telling the truth.

I'm not quite I know what you're saying here, Kast. Admittedly I didn't put more effort looking at that game other than the front page (which didn't have alignments), so if you could explain how this relates here I'd appreciate it (sorry for being lazy).

comments like this bother me. i feel like there's some important information flying around above my head that i can't quite grasp. either explain yourself fully or don't make the comment - it seems suspicious to me.

Do you typically feel the need to know everything as town? What is your read on Porkens?

I'm a Mycon, bulletproof town.

Ok, multiple issues here.

I'm tempted to argue the early claim scumtell since it was only Kast who asked for this and you're only at L-2. You've been around long enough to know that claiming willy-nilly if you're town is very harmful. However, in my experience, scum are much more likely to claim early. Second, why would you not full claim here? Third, are you an SK? Fourth, why did you ignore the many questions about your supposed third party read on Gamma?

You had my reasoning right, but (I figured) failed to notice his explanation and our subsequent vote changes. It's kinda like if you suddenly bust into the room screaming "THE CAKE IS A LIE!!" at the top of your lungs. Old.

Maybe I like his explanation because I value bandwagons so much too.

No, it's not that. I just thought it was poo poo that he was riding your wagon for as long as possible when switching to one of his scum suspects (Dry-fit) was available and seemingly much more effective. I don't think he was actually pressuring you in any kind of way. I find that kind of coasting scummy.

Why not vote Dry-fit, who you happen to find scummy, and who has just as many votes as PZ?

This was never the case.

I was referring to Page 5 when you were still riding your vote:

Official Vote Count
Players needed to lynch: 7

Dry-fit - 2 - Gammagooey, Porkens - (L-5)

Gammagooey - 1 - Riceballtail - (L-6)
Kast - 1 - Dry-fit - (L-6)

Papa Zito - 2 - CF Riot, cruelty - (L-5)

Plum - 1 - Merkabah - (L-6)
Porkens - 1 - Plum - (L-6)
Riceballtail - 1 - animorpherv1 - (L-6)

Players not voting: bouncy.bouncy, Kast, Papa Zito

Bandwagoning desires aside, I feel like you were riding the vote on someone who wasn't even really that scummy to you when you could have been adding much more pressure to Dry-fit, who you had recently said was scummy.

So you're conclusions about gamma's affiliation aren't related to you're role? Then how did you come to the conclusion that he is not only third party, but a harmless one? It doesn't make sense.

What? You thought that RBT was saying she was reading Gamma as third party because of her role? How did you come to this conclusion?

Fun fact of the Day: Plum and bouncy.bouncy are actually in this game. Who would have guessed?

[Merkabah]

-VPB (see what I mean)

apologies for the mega post

[Merkabah]

1: i want to know everything regardless of alignment. the game is information interpretation. knowledge is critical.

2: null. interested in the hammer power quote, but overall not getting vibes either way off him. i do like his bloodlust, though. i think it's cute.

1) Eh, theoretically speaking, I disagree. There are times as town when it is best to shut up and ignore certain discussions even if other townies seem to want to go that way.

2) what do you mean by "interested" in the hammer power quote? What do you find interesting about it?

@Kast - ok, thanks for the explanation. That makes a lot more sense now and I can see where you are coming from.

At the time I started to suspect Dry, the vote was 3 for Zito, 1 for Dry. When it was 2 and 2 I wasn't yet suspicious of Dry. I feel like we're getting close to splitting hairs now though. The long and short of it is I wanted my vote on Zito so I left it there. Maybe there were better places for it, I liked it where it was.

Alright, I agree that this argument could be getting too nitpicky and I'm not as certain of it's strength anymore. I still think you were coasting on your vote and were trying to explain it away after, but maybe I'm over analyzing.

As for the links and such, that's just how I post. I don't really see what was wrong with it. If anything, providing the links lets other people look at the posts in question for themselves without my bias, so I'm not sure what you mean by "impression value". I would think you were implying that I'm being misleading, but that seems like the opposite of what I'd do if I were trying to direct votes. (WIFOM, I know. Whatever.)

I think she is saying that people tend to give more town cred to fancy written posts with links than they do to poorly formatted text posts. This may or may not be true (perhaps on a subconscious level), but I think that's what she means by impression value.

Hey, RBT, still anxiously awaiting your responses to my questions.

[Merkabah]

So I'm kind of wondering why I'm out here.

What do you mean by this?

Also wondering why the other ship got blown up but there's nobody out here with me, but I'm fine with not knowing if it should be secrets for some reason.

This seems the stanger thing to me. Perhaps there are a fleet of unmanned ships that can be accessed if we get blasted into space or something. I don't remember if there was anything like this in the first game. People who were in SC I, any insight?

I think I'm going to hold my info for now (or at least until Amished gets back and I can discuss with him, but I don't think it'd be helpful atm), but I'm definitely looking forward to what cruelty has to say.

[Merkabah]

Gamma, you ship had energy before it was destroyed right?

[Merkabah]

I don't have a next question. I just wanted to see if you'd contradict yourself. Carry on.

[Merkabah]

Kast, you've been more in the background than I've seen in previous games (including the first SC). What is the cause of this? Is it an intentional decision? What do you think of animorph and bouncy.bouncy?

I think papa should pick up gamma.

Gamma, you turned around on cruelty quick...but I'm not so sure why you are reading that action as obviously town. Explain?

[Merkabah]

*in the background more than I've seen...



-VPB

[Merkabah]

Yerp, that's pretty cut and dry.

Vote: cruelty

[Merkabah]

@Kast - Also, I guess I didn't realize you werent' around on weekends. But apart from that I normally get a town leader vibe from you. I guess I just don't have that as much here. That being said, if cruelty flips scum you're basically confirmed in my book so it's not worth worrying about atm.

[Merkabah]

Wanna lynch Dry-fit?

Why exactly? This is entirely from Gamma's case or because of his lurking or both?

Since he has been launched into space, doesn't he die if noone takes him by Nightfall? And since his ship is a pro-town ship, then wouldn't that make him pro-town to?

Yes, he has to be picked up before night. I'm not entirely sure there wouldn't be some kind of mod wifom with the ships (there was some in the first game iirc), but for the most part it's an alright assumption. Plus gamma's behavior is pro-town, so that's probably a better indicator than ship type.

So Gamma, Porkens, Plum, and cruelty's night actions are all confirmed. Does that mean we can confirm them as town? I'm finding it a little hard to hold this all together and figure it out myself

What's so hard to figure out about it?

I'm really uncertain why people are thinking cruelty looks like town for targeting Porkens. First, I think someone said that they expected him to claim doc or something if he was scum--uh, that's what he did basically. Also, his reasoning for picking porkens sounds like poo poo to me. If I was the doc, I certainly would have picked Papa Zito or Plum last night. The former looks town that potentially has info to confirm another town and the latter is the confrimee. cruelty, did you doubt Plum as being town after PZ said so yesterday?

@gamma-so your main reason for wanting to lynch dry-fit is lack of original scumhunting?

Also,

Rereading Merk he's scummier than quite a lot of people but Dry tops him by a long shot. Dry's the way to go today.

Do tell.

And cruelty slumps onto another popular wagon for specious reasoning. such a strong town read.

Right now I think cruelty, ani or bb should be lynched. CF Riot also continues to linger and do squat.

[Merkabah]

Why does cruelty's targeting Porkens make him suspicious at all now that we know that the energy taken was a mod fluke? I wouldn't have outed the report at all if it wasn't for that and the scum having an energy thief ability last game.

First, he claimed it after you outted him and as you said, claiming doc protect of some sort is the first obvious choice. Second, he clearly didn't understand the ability properly in the first place and very well could have been trying to block porkens from getting energy last night. He believed he blocked it. After he's been outted by an investigation ability, why not say 'Oh, golly gee, didn't mean to guys. Was trying to doc protect.' I mean, it was obvious someone was going to try to send energy to porkens last night, so why would the energy shield blocking battery juice not be something he looked into last night? I contest that he very well could have intentionally meant to block that energy.

Do you think he's telling the truth about what his ability does, and if not, what do you think it might be instead?

I believe he is telling the truth, just maybe not about his intentions/alignment.

Gamma, can you tell me what separates Dry-fit and ani for you? And putting aside cruelty's night action, what separates he and Dry-fit in terms of gameplay?

I'd rather not lynch a claimed doctor of sorts without a strong reason.

I understand, I just think people are looking at it a bit simply and things don't quite add up so neatly in my mind.

[Merkabah]

plum wasn't a consideration because that would require two assumptions, first that zito is town, and second that he's right. two assumptions is a leap to far, so i'm not putting much stock in that statement at this point. i'd prefer to judge plum on her own merits, and i haven't had any epiphanies as to her alignment thus far, so i'm more or less null on her.

I don't think you have to make the assumption that zito is town in that situation at all. He very well could have been scum trying to buddy with her. In either consideration, she's town.

as for the dry-fit wagon, well, have you actually read him in iso? i think it's stretching to say that i'm jumping onto a popular wagon when there's a legitimate case to be made against him (lurking + imo opportunism).

Yes, I've read him in iso and while I don't think his play is all that impressive, I'm having a hard time seeing a lot of scum motivation in his actions. You on the other hand have come onto both rbt and dry-fit with weak explanations.

would you say that it's scummy to be on a wagon in general, or just when i do it? the reason i ask is that cf riot voted for rbt with little/no explanation, and he's also on the dry-fit wagon (his votes are in his iso 9 and 16, feel free to do some research). plum is also in the same boat (her iso 13 and 19). so uh... sup man?

Well I was on CF's case yesterday and still have him on my scum list. I've already explained I have a town read on her, so I don't care about her vote. So, sup man, do your research. But it's cool, you trying divert attention elsewhere makes me happy.

also, looking at you, you had little suspicion of me prior to early day 2 (you really only addressed me when i was talking about wanting to know stuff as town), and then you jumped on my wagon pretty quickly (no beef about that btw).. but then your read on me is suddenly, and without any real reason other than my presence on different wagons, (sarcastically) strong town. that is, scum.

I don't buy your night action. I believe you were trying to block energy being sent to Porkens and didn't understand your role couldn't do that. I don't see what that has to do with my day 1 reads at all.

Merk, my read on cruelty is largely because of his night action, because it doesn't make sense for scum to have and use on Porkens.

It does if he didn't understand the action, which has been proven in thread.

If you think that cruelty or ani is a better lynch than Dry make a case yourself saying why.

Well, I think I've explained why I don't like cruelty, but maybe the above with make it a bit more clear. I'll organize our thoughts on ani in a separate post.

It also seems kinda lame and unlikely that Spyrex would put in an exact copy of any role.

It isn't impossible, but I would be extremely surprised if that were the case.

What do you think about "similar" roles being in the game? This is something I've been trying to think about lately given gamma and porkens' apparent connection.

Let's explore this little scenario for a second. Assume I am scumbuddies with Plum. I came right out of the gate and declare that Plum is town in-thread.

1. Has Plum been cleared by this statement? Look at the reactions to my post ITT
2. Plum gets lynched and flips scum. I am irrevocably tied to her by my statement. I'm getting lynched next y/n?
3. I get lynched and flip scum. I am irrevocably tied to Plum by my statement. She's getting lynched next y/n?

In fairness it gave Plum a lot of town cred in my book. She's not cleared by any means, but I certainly have no interest in considering her scum unless it were a situation much closer to lylo. Same for you really.

@All-
Today's probably my last full day, I'll be around a little bit tomorrow morning, then out of contact for 10 days.

I'd appreciate if you guys wait on lynching anyone until Sunday. That would give a 48hour night and D3 will end on Tuesday May 4th. If I am still alive, I should be able to at least catch up on May 3rd with an extra day if I need to ask any questions.

That's kind of a long time to not have you in the thread at all.

[Merkabah]

Cruelty: confusion (fake or real) is more likely to come from scum. Both for the reason that they have more interactions to try to keep straight (making it harder to get certain things straight) and that confusion is a great cover to make it look like you're active and gives you breathing room to see the flow of the town and go with that.

As for Plum, she's been one of our town reads throughout the game; which is why we haven't questioned her or mentioned her really at all. I thought that she hasn't done anything suspicious at all so I wouldn't see where any large thought that she's scum would come from.

I will not support a no-lynch. If it gets to tomorrow (or even late tonight) and nothing has changed, vote-wise; I will switch to Dry-Fit. You can consider this a L-1.5 if you want but we can't risk not lynching.

[Merkabah]

Let me elaborate for Amished,

right. so it's unreasonable for me to think he's town, but it's fine for you to?

i'm sort of intrigued at exactly where you're going with this. it's scummy that i thought zito was possibly a target if he was town? it's scummy that i have a null read on on plum? huh?

sigh. talking to you is becoming very dull, very quickly because you don't seem to be able to interpret things very well.

What is unreasonable is what you are putting forth as your thought process on the night action. You're welcome to have whatever reads you want, but what I am saying is that the information Zito put forth points to Plum-town either way you cut it. I don't see why she would not be high on your list of potential night targets if you are town and were doing what you say you were doing. I don't buy that yesterday Porkens (or Gamma for that matter) looked more town than Plum.

well, as far as i could see (and i could be wrong), the only time you ever mentioned plum as being town is in the two quotes at the top of this post. i've done my research and to be honest there's not a whole lot of plumtown sentiment in any of your posts.

See Amished's above post. I don't know how much experience you have, but generally when I have a town read on someone I'm not going to sit there and scream it at the town unless my stance needs to be clarified or that person is in danger of being lynched. Stating town reads on a whole is beneficial to scum and not so much to town.

because your read isn't based on fact at all, merely speculation about my intentions regarding a night action. speculation which neatly ignores the logical improbabilities that had to have taken place for me to be scum.

How is it an improbability? You've shown in thread that you don't understand your role and what it does or does not block. That's a fact, right? Your reasoning for selecting Porkens looks arbitrary to me and more like you were justifying yourself after Gamma had seen you targeting. I don't see how that doesnt' make sense to you.

you've gone overboard with the pro-plumness in this post (which is imo a departure from the relative distance you've preserved up until this point). why is this suddenly such an imperative point to make?

To point out how poor your reasoning for selecting Porkens was when one looks closely at it.

[Merkabah]

Way to lynch your doc you idiots. Good luck with this game.