Open 217: Assassin in the (Amish) Palace OVER


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Post Post #21 (isolation #0) » Tue Apr 27, 2010 1:41 pm

Post by zoraster »

I guess I'm with RC on this one as well. It is theoretically in town's best interest to essentially roll dice and select someone.

But i'll note that that's NOT what Scorpion did. Instead, what he did was ask if OTHERS were interested. This is an interesting ploy. It seems to me that if he were really interested in doing this, he would do a dice roll rather than make it non-random. Because so long as it's NOT random, we're defeating the purpose of not giving the assassin information AND we potentially letting the assassin drive a lynch (though this is only bad insofar as he's not the one being lynched).

That is, of course, all essentially moot since I think we have to agree not to play this "randomly" just because our numbers would be better. Part of playing an open setup is figuring out the best way to maximize win rate, but at the same time it's not really that satisfying if you're not the town who thought of it first -- you're juts copying someone else's thoughts.

Anyway, just because we don't want to try the "breaking" strat, doesn't mean we can't play a little more optimally. By that I mean we don't want to just chat and chat and chat and give the assassin all the information he needs. So wagon=on:

vote: XScorpion
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Post Post #43 (isolation #1) » Thu Apr 29, 2010 6:40 am

Post by zoraster »

wait. what? I obviously did not read my thing carefully enough. sigh.
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Post Post #44 (isolation #2) » Thu Apr 29, 2010 6:40 am

Post by zoraster »

yup. my bad. at least I only wasted a couple of pages of your time. oops!
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Post Post #49 (isolation #3) » Thu Apr 29, 2010 7:06 am

Post by zoraster »

oh no, this is totally my fault. It says it right there on the role pm. I just overlooked it!
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Post Post #59 (isolation #4) » Thu Apr 29, 2010 10:46 am

Post by zoraster »

well, for what it's worth, this suddenly becomes the #2 smallest mini game ever played, according to the records page. :-/
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Post Post #68 (isolation #5) » Thu Apr 29, 2010 6:00 pm

Post by zoraster »

oh, and all this overlooks how damn clever I thought I was being. I thought RC was trying to find out who his guards were with the "who's with me" line
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Post Post #72 (isolation #6) » Sun May 02, 2010 4:58 pm

Post by zoraster »

Let's assume none of this takes any discussion and is decided on beforehand, the following is what I assume will maximize town's chances of winning:
Each new lynch a person is randomly selected by public dice roll. That person will select but will not discuss who the town will lynch. If he chooses the king, he is immediately lynched by the rest of the town. Just picking who to lynch by dice roll won't work because you might get the king and then you're left outing the king.

If you've got a better way of doing it, let me know. So a few assumptions:
1. Everyone has read their role pm fully
2. Everyone plays optimally (i.e. makes the smartest choice given the odds) at any time
3. When the assassin has been selected to be lynched, he will only actually BE lynched if he is the LAST person to see that he was the one chosen. If he is not, he will choose to shoot.

Image

A little hard to see in my sloppy handwriting, but there you go. That is your game. Each and every time. So I'm not sure why you'd CHOOSE to play this way as every decision in the game would be dictated. Tell you what, I'll run the game according to the "no talking" approach, assuming that no one knows I'm the assassin.

Day 1:
Chronopie was picked to lead the lynch. Chronopie chooses Col.Cathart to lynch. Col.Cathart is lynched.

Day 2:
RedCoyote is picked to lead the lynch. RedCoyote chooses XScorpion to lynch. He is lynched.

Day 3:
RedCoyote is picked to lead the lynch again. RedCoyote chooses zoraster to lynch. Zoraster, the assassin rolls to see if he sees the choice last: he succeeds. He shoots Seraphim. Seraphim was not the King.

Town wins!

That was so much fun, let's play again!

Day 1:
Super Awesome Mega Pimp! is picked to lead the lynch. SAMP chooses RedCoyote to lynch.

Day 2:
XScorpion is picked to lead the lynch. XScorpion chooses SAMP to lynch.

Day 3:
tumescence is picked to lead the lynch. tumescence chooses Col.Cathart to lynch.

Day 4:
zoraster is picked to lead the lynch. zoraster chooses Chronopie to lynch.

Day 5:
OpposedForce is picked to lead the lynch. OpposedForce chooses zoraster to lynch. zoraster rolls to see if he sees it in time: he does! he shoots tumescence!

Assassin wins!
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Post Post #73 (isolation #7) » Sun May 02, 2010 4:59 pm

Post by zoraster »

by the way, i used random.org for those two games and just followed the chart for all choices.
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Post Post #76 (isolation #8) » Sun May 02, 2010 5:54 pm

Post by zoraster »

XScorpion wrote:I don't think the best strategy is to plan out who to lynch by die rolls, it's just to throw votes down and lynch as fast as possible. For example, maybe 3 guards or 2 guards and an assassin just vote for 3 random different people, then everyone else just piles on votes wherever they feel like and eventually just lynch one. This way the majority will never target the king, and you will never have a case where the assassin chooses the king for lynching and gets voted by rest of town.
theoretically this gives the assassin more information.
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